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1.
Line transect based abundance estimation is complicated for long‐finned (LFPW, Globicephala melas) and short‐finned (SFPW, G. macrorhynchus) pilot whales because of their similarity in appearance and their overlapping summertime range in some areas. We developed a photograph‐based approach to distinguish between species of free‐ranging pilot whales in the northwest Atlantic. We collected skin samples and photographs during the summers of 2004–2007 and used skin samples to distinguish species based on mitochondrial DNA. Relative morphometric measurements from photographs were examined using mixed‐effect models and logistic regression. The best model among 94 candidate models had an overall classification error rate of 2.5%. We tested the presence/absence of pigmentation in four regions of the dorsal body (melon, eye, cape, and saddle) for differences. Pigmentation was present in all four regions in 100% of the SFPWs sampled. Melon patch, blaze, and saddle patch pigmentation were present in 6%, 68%, and 50%, respectively, of the LFPWs, but the cape was completely absent. Both types of analyses provided positive species discrimination of free‐ranging animals. We created a cost‐effective, simple tool which could ultimately assist in providing appropriate management, mitigation, and conservation strategies for both northwest Atlantic species of pilot whales.  相似文献   

2.
Populations of Steller sea lions, northern fur seals, and northern sea otters declined substantially during recent decades in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands region, yet the population status of harbor seals has not been assessed adequately. We determined that counts obtained during skiff‐based surveys conducted in 1977–1982 represent the earliest estimate of harbor seal abundance throughout the Aleutian Islands. By comparing counts from 106 islands surveyed in 1977–1982 (8,601 seals) with counts from the same islands during a 1999 aerial survey (2,859 seals), we observed a 67% decline over the ~20‐yr period. Regionally, the largest decline of 86% was in the western Aleutians (n= 7 islands), followed by 66% in the central Aleutians (n= 64 islands), and 45% in the eastern Aleutians (n= 35 islands). Harbor seal counts decreased at the majority of islands in each region, the number of islands with >100 seals decreased ~70%, and the number of islands with no seals counted increased ~80%, indicating that harbor seal abundance throughout the Aleutian Islands was substantially lower in the late 1990s than in the 1970s and 1980s.  相似文献   

3.
We report evidence of enzootic morbillivirus infection among long-finned, Globicephala melas, and short-finned, G. macrorhynchus, pilot whales in the western Atlantic. A retrospective serologic survey, using five morbilliviruses, was carried out on 99 G. melas from 14 stranding events between 1982 and 1993 and from 25 G. macrorhynchus stranded in 5 events between 1986 and 1994. A blood sample was also obtained from an adult G. melas by-caught in the western North Atlantic. Tissues were collected from 24 G. melas and 15 G. macrorhynchus for histology and immunoperoxidase staining. Neutralizing antibody titers were found in 92 (92%) of 100 G. melas and 16 (64%) of 25 G. macrorynchus, and titers were highest against cetacean morbilliviruses. Seroprevalence was similar between age classes and sexes. The earliest evidence of infection was in a G. melas that stranded in 1982. Stable antibody titers were observed in pilot whales under rehabilitation for up to eight months. Clinical disease consistent with morbillivirus pneumonia was detected in a G. melas calf. Immunoperoxidase staining confirmed that viral antigen was present in the lesions. We propose that enzootic infection in pilot whales is facilitated by population size, social structure, and migration patterns. Furthermore, through mixing with other odontocetes, pilot whales could act as vectors through the Atlantic. Clinical morbillivirus infection may precipitate mass strandings of highly social odontocetes.  相似文献   

4.
Jay  Barlow 《Marine Mammal Science》2006,22(2):446-464
Cetacean abundance is estimated for the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) around the Hawaiian Islands based on a ship line‐transect survey from August to November, 2002. Sighting detection functions are estimated from this and other NOAA research surveys from 1986 to 2002 using a new, multiple‐covariate approach. Twenty‐four species were seen on this survey, including two species (Fraser's dolphin [Lagenodelphis hosei] and sei whale [Balaenoptera borealis]) that had not been previously documented to occur in Hawaiian waters. The most abundant large whales are sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) and Bryde's whales (Balaenoptera edeni). The most abundant delphinids are pilot whales (Globicephala macrorhynchus), rough‐toothed dolphins (Steno bredanensis), Fraser's dolphins, spotted dolphins (Stenella attenuata), and striped dolphins (Stenella coeruleoalba). Dwarf and pygmy sperm whales (Kogia sima and Kogia breviceps) and Cuvier's beaked whales (Ziphius cavirostris) are also estimated to be quite abundant. Some of the migratory baleen whales (fin whales [Balaenoptera physalus], sei whales, minke whales [B. acutorostrata], and humpback whales [Megaptera novaeangliae]) were seen only late in the survey. Abundance is estimated for 19 cetacean species. The overall density of cetaceans is low in the study area, especially for delphinids. The precision of density and abundance estimates is generally low for all species because of the low number of sightings.  相似文献   

5.
Gonyostmum semen is a freshwater raphidophyte that has increased in occurrence and abundance in several countries in northern Europe since the 1980s. More recently, the species has expanded rapidly also in north‐eastern Europe, and it is frequently referred to as invasive. To better understand the species history, we have explored the phylogeography of G. semen using strains from northern Europe, United States, and Japan. Three regions of the ribosomal RNA gene (small subunit [SSU], internal transcribed spacer [ITS] and large subunit [LSU]) and one mitochondrial DNA marker (cox1) were analyzed. The SSU and partial LSU sequences were identical in all strains, confirming that they belong to the same species. The ITS region differentiated the American from the other strains, but showed high intra‐strain variability. In contrast, the mitochondrial marker cox1 showed distinct differences between the European, American, and Japanese strains. Interestingly, only one cox1 haplotype was detected in European strains. The overall low diversity and weak geographic structure within northern European strains supported the hypothesis of a recent invasion of new lakes by G. semen. Our data also show that the invasive northern European lineage is genetically distinct from the lineages from the other continents. Finally, we concluded that the mitochondrial cox1 was the most useful marker in determining large‐scale biogeographic patterns in this species.  相似文献   

6.
We established Fe(III)‐reducing co‐cultures of two species of metal‐reducing bacteria, the Gram‐positive Desulfotomaculum reducens MI‐1 and the Gram‐negative Geobacter sulfurreducens PCA. Co‐cultures were given pyruvate, a substrate that D. reducens can ferment and use as electron donor for Fe(III) reduction. G. sulfurreducens relied upon products of pyruvate oxidation by D. reducens (acetate, hydrogen) for use as electron donor in the co‐culture. Co‐cultures reduced Fe(III) to Fe(II) robustly, and Fe(II) was consistently detected earlier in co‐cultures than pure cultures. Notably, faster cell growth, and correspondingly faster pyruvate oxidation, was observed by D. reducens in co‐cultures. Global comparative proteomic analysis was performed to observe differential protein abundance during co‐culture vs. pure culture growth. Proteins previously associated with Fe(III) reduction in G. sulfurreducens, namely c‐type cytochromes and type IV pili proteins, were significantly increased in abundance in co‐cultures relative to pure cultures. D. reducens ribosomal proteins were significantly increased in co‐cultures, likely a reflection of faster growth rates observed for D. reducens cells while in co‐culture. Furthermore, we developed multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) assays to quantitate specific biomarker peptides. The assays were validated in pure and co‐cultures, and protein abundance ratios from targeted MRM and global proteomic analysis correlate significantly.  相似文献   

7.
A freshwater population of the threespine stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus occurs at an elevation of 400m in Lake Towada in the mountains of northern Japan. Morphological characteristics of each sex of this population were studied between 1985 and 1992. The 1985 fishes were larger in standard length than even anadromous populations, as well as all other freshwater populations, so the large body size of this population was unusual for the species. The population was also characterized by large ratios of head length, eye diameter, and gill raker length, and a higher ovary volume in 1992 than in 1985, but it was not readily characterized by meristic characters. The population may have been introduced within the last 20 years (probably in the early 1980s). The large body size of the population may not reflect a defense against predators because coexisting fishes were not important predators on threespine stickleback adults. It is supposed that the change of body size was induced by environmental changes in prey abundance in the lake and/or by the longevity of fishes.  相似文献   

8.
We contrast two methods for estimating the trends of bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) in West Greenland: (1) double platform visual aerial survey, corrected for missed sightings and the time the whales are available at the surface; and (2) a genetic capture‐recapture approach based on a 14‐yr‐long biopsy sampling program in Disko Bay. The aerial survey covered 39,000 km2 and resulted in 58 sightings, yielding an abundance estimate of 744 whales (CV = 0.34, 95% CI: 357–1,461). The genetic method relied on determining sex, mitochondrial haplotypes and genotypes of nine microsatellite markers. Based on samples from a total of 427 individuals, with 11 recaptures from previous years in 2013, this resulted in an estimate of 1,538 whales (CV = 0.24, 95% CI: 827–2,249). While the aerial survey is considered a snapshot of the local spring aggregation in Disko Bay, the genetic approach estimates the abundance of the source of this aggregation. As the whales in Disko Bay primarily are adult females that do not visit the bay annually, the genetic method would presumably yield higher estimates. The studies indicate that an increase in abundance observed between 1998 and 2006 has leveled off.  相似文献   

9.
Climate change and overfishing may lead to ecosystem instability and may benefit nonexploited organisms such as jellyfish. In the Irish Sea, an increase in jellyfish abundance was evident (r2=0.29, P=0.03) in a 16‐year time‐series (1994–2009) collected during juvenile fish surveys. Jellyfish abundance correlated positively with sea surface temperature (SST) over the preceding 18 months (r=0.65, pACF<0.001) and copepod biomass in the previous year (r=0.56, pACF=0.03) and negatively with spring (February–May) precipitation (r=?0.57, pACF=0.02). Principal components regression indicated that climatic indices explained 68% of the interannual variability in jellyfish abundance (P=0.003), where the components were based on the North Atlantic Oscillation Index, SST and precipitation. The frequency of cnidarian material present in Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) samples has also increased since 1970, with a period of frequent outbreaks between 1982 and 1991. Before this period, the herring stock in the northern Irish Sea declined rapidly to a low level, potentially stimulating structural change in the ecosystem. In 1985, there was a step decrease in CPR copepod biomass and in 1989, a step increase in the phytoplankton colour index, suggesting a cascading regime shift during the 1980s. Subsequent overexploitation of gadids, coupled with warm temperatures and the poor recruitment of cod, led to the rapid decline in cod biomass from 1990. While the biomass of sprat has decreased in the last decade, the herring stock has recovered partially. Reductions in demersal fishing pressure since 2000, intended to stimulate cod recovery, appear to have facilitated further rises in haddock biomass. Since the 1980s regime shift, sea temperatures have increased, the fish community has altered and jellyfish abundance has risen such that jellyfish and haddock may now play an increasingly important role in the ecosystem.  相似文献   

10.
The life‐history tactics of the stone loach Barbatula barbatula were studied in a Mediterranean‐type climate stream (Matarranya River) located in the Ebro River basin (north‐east Spain). Maximum observed ages were 2+ years in both sexes (1% of individuals), although only 0+ and 1+ year age groups were well represented. It is the lowest longevity reported for this species in its entire distribution. The seasonal growth period started in June and continued until November, but the pattern observed was different to northern populations. Barbatula barbatula in the Matarranya River was a multiple spawner, releasing small batches of oocytes between April and June. The fecundity of females was higher and the size of oocytes smaller in 1984 than in 1985. The relative fecundity (number of ripening and ripe oocytes g?1 of fish) was lower than in northern European populations. The role of the particular environmental conditions of a Mediterranean stream was discussed in relation to the life‐history tactics of B. barbatula.  相似文献   

11.
Estimates of population parameters for the short‐finned pilot whale, Globicephala macrorhynchus, are scarce in literature, contributing to an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) status of Data Deficient. In this study, photo‐identification data collected over 7 yr from Madeira were used to estimate for the first time survivorship, capture probability, and abundance in this species using mark‐recapture methodology. The Cormack‐Jolly‐Seber model estimated that the adult island‐associated (i.e., resident and regular visitor) whales had a constant survival rate of 0.960 (95% CI: 0.853–0.990) and an annual capture probability varying between 0.372 (CI: 0.178–0.619) and 0.843 (CI: 0.619–0.947). A parameterization of the Jolly‐Seber model estimated that 140 island‐associated whales (CI: 131–151) used the area throughout the course of the study. Based on a closed population model, the most precise (lower CV) annual estimate of the total number of pilot whales using the southern and eastern waters of Madeira (~900 km2) in a 3 mo period covering summer/autumn was 334 animals (CI: 260–437). No trend was observed. Despite including biases, the approach used in this study provided plausible estimates of population parameters, which can contribute to the regional conservation strategies.  相似文献   

12.
Aim Woody plant expansion and infilling in grasslands and savannas are occurring across a broad range of ecosystems around the globe and are commonly attributed to fire suppression, livestock grazing, nutrient enrichment and/or climate variability. In the western Great Plains, ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) woodlands are expanding across broad geographical and environmental gradients. The objective of this study was to reconstruct the establishment of ponderosa pine in woodlands in the west‐central Great Plains and to identify whether it was mediated by climate variability. Location Our study took place in a 400‐km wide region from the base of the Front Range Mountains (c. 105° W) to the central Great Plains (c. 100° W) and from Nebraska (43° N) to northern New Mexico (36° N), USA. Methods Dates for establishment of ponderosa pine were reconstructed with tree rings in 11 woodland sites distributed across the longitudinal and latitudinal gradients of the study area. Temporal trends in decadal pine establishment were compared with summer Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Annual trends in pine establishment from 1985 to 2005 were compared with seasonal PDSI, temperature and moisture availability. Results Establishment of ponderosa pine occurred in the study area in all but one decade (1770s) between the 1750s and the early 2000s, with over 35% of establishment in the region occurring after 1980. Pine establishment was highly variable among sites. Across the region, decadal pine establishment was persistently low from 1940 to 1960, when PDSI was below average. Annual pine establishment from 1985 to 2005 was positively correlated with summer PDSI and inversely correlated with minimum spring temperatures. Main conclusions Most ponderosa pine woodlands pre‐date widespread Euro‐American settlement of the region around c. ad 1860 and currently have stable tree populations. High variability in the timing of establishment of pine among sites highlights the multiplicity of factors that can drive woodland dynamics, including land use, fire history, CO2 enrichment, tree population dynamics and climate. Since the 1840s, the influence of climate was most notable across the study area during the mid‐20th century, when the establishment of pine was suppressed by two significant droughts. The past sensitivity of establishment of ponderosa pine to drought suggests that woodland expansion will be negatively affected by predicted increases in temperature and drought in the Great Plains.  相似文献   

13.
Biting midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) may transmit several arboviruses to ruminant livestock. The species of the Obsoletus group are considered to be among the most important vectors of bluetongue virus (BTV) in northern Europe. As agricultural environments offer suitable habitats for the development of their immature stages, the emergence of adult Culicoides from potential breeding sites was investigated at 20 cattle farms throughout Germany in 2012 and 2013. In analyses of species‐specific habitat preferences and relationships between Culicoides abundance in breeding substrates and their physicochemical characteristics, dungheaps emerged as the most important substrate for the development of Culicoides obsoletus sensu stricto (s.s.) (Meigen), whereas Culicoides chiopterus (Meigen) and Culicoides dewulfi Goetghebuer were generally restricted to cowpats. A decreasing pH value was associated with a higher abundance or a higher probability of observing these three species. Furthermore, the abundance of C. obsoletus s.s. was positively related to increasing moisture. Dungheaps were very productive breeding sites for this species and are therefore suggested as a target for potential control measures.  相似文献   

14.
The rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Ca) has been related to tree growth enhancement and increasing intrinsic water‐use efficiency (iWUE). However, the extent that rising Ca has led to increased long‐term iWUE and whether climate could explain deviations from expected Ca‐induced growth enhancement are still poorly understood. The aim of this research was to use Ca and local climatic variability to explain changes during the 20th century in growth and tree ring and needle δ13C in declining and nondeclining Abies alba stands from the Spanish Pyrenees, near the southern distribution limit of this species. The temporal trends of iWUE were calculated under three theoretical scenarios for the regulation of plant‐gas exchange at increasing Ca. We tested different linear mixed‐effects models by multimodel selection criteria to predict basal area increment (BAI), a proxy of tree radial growth, using these scenarios and local temperature together with precipitation data as predictors. The theoretical scenario assuming the strongest response to Ca explained 66–81% of the iWUE variance and 28–56% of the observed BAI variance, whereas local climatic variables together explained less than 11–21% of the BAI variance. Our results are consistent with a drought‐induced limitation of the tree growth response to rising CO2 and a decreasing rate of iWUE improvement from the 1980s onward in declining A. alba stands subjected to lower water availability.  相似文献   

15.
Recently refined evolutionary theories have highlighted that ecological interactions and environmental gradients can play a major role in speciation. This paper reports on a 3‐year field study, in which the ecology of two congeneric butterfly species was used to explore and compare the environmental factors determining their spatial distribution. These data are discussed in the context of possible speciation scenarios between the Sardinian populations of Maniola nurag and M. jurtina. M. nurag is endemic to the island of Sardinia, while M. jurtina is widespread over Europe. In Sardinia, the two species are locally sympatric. Mark–release–recapture experiments were combined with measures of environmental variables in 15 1‐ha plots, established in areas of potential habitat for the butterflies. Constrained linear models were parameterized from mark–recapture data to estimate both individual (survival and capture probabilities) and population (population size and recruitment) parameters. The two species had similar demography, movement patterns, life history, and behaviour. Population sizes developed in a parabolic fashion from beginning to end of the flight season. Differences included local population size, adult phenology, and habitat requirements. Long‐distance movements larger than 1.5 km were observed, suggesting a substantial amount of gene‐flow between populations of the endemic as well as the widespread species. Multivariate analyses revealed four main environmental gradients responsible for the abundance of the butterflies in an area. Both species responded similarly to environmental variables. However, each species’s abundance was correlated with a different environmental gradient determined by vegetation cover and structure. When sympatric, the two species responded to subtle differences in microhabitat structure. This might originally have induced their divergence. This study is an example of how empirical field data on population dynamics, dispersal, and habitat characteristics of two sympatric congeners can further our understanding of how species differentiate despite existing gene‐flow. © 2006 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2006, 89 , 561–574.  相似文献   

16.
Photosynthetic cyanobacteria have attracted interest as production organisms for third‐generation biofuels, where sunlight and CO2 are used by microbes directly to synthesize fuel molecules. A particularly suitable biofuel is n‐butanol, and there have been several laboratory reports of genetically engineered photosynthetic cyanobacteria capable of synthesizing and secreting n‐butanol. This work evaluates the environmental impacts and cumulative energy demand (CED) of cyanobacteria‐produced n‐butanol through a cradle‐to‐grave consequential life cycle assessment (LCA). A hypothetical production plant in northern Sweden (area 1 ha, producing 5–85 m3 n‐butanol per year) was considered, and a range of cultivation formats and cellular productivity scenarios assessed. Depending on the scenario, greenhouse gas emissions (GHGe) ranged from 16.9 to 58.6 gCO2eq/MJBuOH and the CED from 3.8 to 13 MJ/MJBuOH. Only with the assumption of a nearby paper mill to supply waste sources for heat and CO2 was the sustainability requirement of at least 60% GHGe savings compared to fossil fuels reached, though placement in northern Sweden reduced energy needed for reactor cooling. A high CED in all scenarios shows that significant metabolic engineering is necessary, such as a carbon partitioning of >90% to n‐butanol, as well as improved light utilization, to begin to displace fossil fuels or even first‐ and second‐generation bioethanol.  相似文献   

17.
Mythimna separata (Walker) moths captured in light traps were monitored in Luohe, central‐northern China, from 1980 to 2016. Annual average temperature recorded an increase of 0.298°C/10 years in this region in the period. Our results indicate that a rising April and May average temperature and earlier occurrences of days recording the highest day temperature (30°C) caused an advanced peak and increasing proportion of high ovarian development levels of first‐generation females in earlier summers. Results using Johnson's formulation of “oogenesis‐flight syndrome” indicate that increasing sexual maturity proportion has resulted in more emigrant individuals in the local first‐generation moth becoming residents, and then increased individuals rapidly in the local second‐generation moth since 2006. Consequences of this action have a boom in corn damage since 2007 in this region. Advanced peak dates of the first and second‐generation moth revealed the same response to increasing average monthly temperatures in the monitoring period. Increasing temperatures, the average May temperature exceeds or equal to 22°C, during the early 2000's may represent a physiological threshold for M. separata development. Our results suggest that climate warming may impact M. separata migratory status and cause a problem of crop production in this region.  相似文献   

18.
Agonists at G‐protein‐coupled receptors in neurons of the dorsal raphe nucleus (DRN) of knock‐out mice devoid of the serotonin transporter (5‐HTT?/?) exhibit lower efficacy to inhibit cellular discharge than in wild‐type counterparts. Using patch‐clamp whole‐cell recordings, we found that a G‐protein‐gated inwardly rectifying potassium (GIRK) current is involved in the inhibition of spike discharge induced by 5‐HT1A agonists (5‐carboxamidotryptamine (5‐CT) and (±)‐2‐dipropylamino‐8‐hydroxy‐1,2,3,4‐tetrahydronaphthalene hydrobromide (8‐OH‐DPAT); 50 nM–30 μM) in both wild‐type and 5‐HTT?/? female and male mice. These effects were mimicked by 5′‐guanylyl‐imido‐diphosphate (Gpp(NH)p; 400 μM) dialysis into cells with differences between genders. The 5‐HTT?/? knock‐out mutation reduced the current density induced by Gpp(NH)p in females but not in males. These data suggest that the decreased response of 5‐HT1A receptors to agonists in 5‐HTT?/? mutants reflects notably alteration in the coupling between G‐proteins and GIRK channels in females but not in males. Accordingly, gender differences in central 5‐HT neurotransmission appear to depend—at least in part—on sex‐related variations in corresponding receptor‐G protein signaling mechanisms. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Neurobiol, 2006  相似文献   

19.
HLA‐G has been documented both in establishment of anti‐tumour immune responses and in tumour evasion. To investigate the clinical relevance of HLA‐G in non‐small‐cell lung cancer (NSCLC), expression status and potential significance of HLA‐G in NSCLC were analysed. In this study, HLA‐G expression in 101 NSCLC primary lesions and plasma soluble HLA‐G (sHLA‐G) from 91 patients were analysed with immunohistochemistry and ELISA, respectively. Correlations between HLA‐G status and various clinical parameters including survival time were evaluated. Meanwhile, functional analysis of transfected cell surface HLA‐G expression and plasma sHLA‐G form NSCLC patients on natural killer (NK) cell cytolysis were performed. Data revealed that HLA‐G was expressed in 41.6% (42/101) NSCLC primary lesions, while undetectable in adjacent normal lung tissues. HLA‐G expression in NSCLC lesions was strongly correlated to disease stages (P= 0.002). Plasma sHLA‐G from NSCLC patients was markedly higher than that in normal controls (P= 0.004), which was significantly associated with the disease stages (I versus IV, P= 0.025; II versus IV, P= 0.029). Patient plasma sHLA‐G level (≥median, 32.0 U/ml) had a significantly shorter survival time (P= 0.044); however, no similar significance was observed for the lesion HLA‐G expression. In vitro data showed that both cell surface HLA‐G and patient plasma sHLA‐G could dramatically decrease the NK cell cytolysis. Our findings indicated that both lesion HLA‐G expression and plasma sHLA‐G in NSCLC is related to the disease stage and can exert immunosuppression to the NK cell cytolysis, indicating that HLA‐G could be a potential therapeutic target. Moreover, plasma sHLA‐G in NSCLC patients could be used as a prognosis factor for NSCLC.  相似文献   

20.
Recent climate change has resulted in changes to the phenology and distribution of invertebrates worldwide. Where invertebrates are associated with disease, climate variability and changes in climate may also affect the spatio‐temporal dynamics of disease. Due to its significant impact on sheep production and welfare, the recent increase in diagnoses of ovine haemonchosis caused by the nematode Haemonchus contortus in some temperate regions is particularly concerning. This study is the first to evaluate the impact of climate change on H. contortus at a continental scale. A model of the basic reproductive quotient of macroparasites, Q0, adapted to H. contortus and extended to incorporate environmental stochasticity and parasite behaviour, was used to simulate Pan‐European spatio‐temporal changes in H. contortus infection pressure under scenarios of climate change. Baseline Q0 simulations, using historic climate observations, reflected the current distribution of H. contortus in Europe. In northern Europe, the distribution of H. contortus is currently limited by temperatures falling below the development threshold during the winter months and within‐host arrested development is necessary for population persistence over winter. In southern Europe, H. contortus infection pressure is limited during the summer months by increased temperature and decreased moisture. Compared with this baseline, Q0 simulations driven by a climate model ensemble predicted an increase in H. contortus infection pressure by the 2080s. In northern Europe, a temporal range expansion was predicted as the mean period of transmission increased by 2–3 months. A bimodal seasonal pattern of infection pressure, similar to that currently observed in southern Europe, emerges in northern Europe due to increasing summer temperatures and decreasing moisture. The predicted patterns of change could alter the epidemiology of H. contortus in Europe, affect the future sustainability of contemporary control strategies, and potentially drive local adaptation to climate change in parasite populations.  相似文献   

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