Raising the bar for the next generation of biological atlases: using existing data to inform the design and implementation of atlas monitoring

Selecting a sampling design to monitor multiple species across a broad geographical region can be a daunting task and often involves tradeoffs between limited resources and the accurate estimation of population abundance and occurrence. Since the 1950s, biological atlases have been implemented in various regions to document the occurrence of plant and animal species. As next‐generation atlases repeat original surveys, investigators often seek to raise the rigour of atlases by incorporating species abundances. We present a repeatable framework that incorporates existing monitoring data, hierarchical modelling and sampling simulations to augment existing atlas occurrence and breeding status maps with a secondary sampling of species abundances. Using existing information on three bird species with varying abundance and detectability, we evaluated several sampling scenarios for the 2nd Wisconsin Breeding Bird Atlas. In general, we found that most sampling schemes produced accurate mean statewide abundance estimates for species with medium to high abundance and detection probability, but estimates varied significantly for species with low abundance and low detection probability. Our approach provided a statewide point‐count sampling design that: provided precise and unbiased abundance estimates for species of varied prevalence and detectability; ensured suitable spatial coverage across the state and its habitats; and reduced spending on total survey costs. Our framework could benefit investigators conducting atlases and other broad‐scale avian surveys that seek to add systematic, multi‐species sampling for estimating density and abundance across broad geographical regions.     

Abundance-occupancy dynamics in a human dominated environment: linking interspecific and intraspecific trends in British farmland and woodland birds

1. Range size, population size and body size, the key macroecological variables, vary temporally both within and across species in response to anthropogenic and natural environmental change. However, resulting temporal trends in the relationships between these variables (i.e. macroecological patterns) have received little attention. 2. Positive relationships between the local abundance and regional occupancy of species (abundance-occupancy relationships) are among the most pervasive of all macroecological patterns. In the absence of formal predictions of how abundance-occupancy relationships may vary temporally, we outline several scenarios of how changes in abundance within species might affect interspecific patterns. 3. We use data on the distribution and abundance of 73 farmland and 55 woodland bird species in Britain over a 32-year period encompassing substantial habitat modification to assess the likelihood of these scenarios. 4. In both farmland and woodland habitats, the interspecific abundance-occupancy relationship changed markedly over the period 1968-99, with a significant decline in the strength of the relationship. 5. Consideration of intraspecific dynamics shows that this has been due to a decoupling of abundance and occupancy particularly in rare and declining species. Insights into the intraspecific processes responsible for the interspecific trend are obtained by analysis of temporal trends in the distribution of individuals between sites, which show patterns consistent with habitat quality declines. 6. This study shows that a profitable approach to ascertaining the nature of human impacts is to link intra- and interspecific processes. In the case of British farmland and woodland birds, changes to the environment lead to species-specific responses in large-scale distributions. These species-specific changes are the driver of the observed changes in the form and strength of the interspecific relationship.     

Abundance, spatial variance and occupancy: arthropod species distribution in the Azores

1. The positive abundance-occupancy and abundance-variance relationships are two of the most widely documented patterns in population and community ecology. 2. Recently, a general model has been proposed linking the mean abundance, the spatial variance in abundance, and the occupancy of species. A striking feature of this model is that it consists explicitly of the three variables abundance, variance and occupancy, and no extra parameters are involved. However, little is known about how well the model performs. 3. Here, we show that the abundance-variance-occupancy model fits extremely well to data on the abundance, variance and occupancy of a large number of arthropod species in natural forest patches in the Azores, at three spatial extents, and distinguishing between species of different colonization status. Indeed, virtually all variation about the bivariate abundance-occupancy and abundance-variance relationships is effectively explained by the third missing variable (variance in abundance in the case of the abundance-occupancy relationship, and occupancy in the case of the abundance-variance relationship). 4. Introduced species tend to exhibit lower densities, less spatial variance in these densities, and occupy fewer sites than native and endemic species. None the less, they all lie on the same bivariate abundance-occupancy and abundance-variance, and trivariate abundance-variance-occupancy, relationships. 5. Density, spatial variance in density, and occupancy appear to be all the things one needs to know to describe much of the spatial distribution of species.     

Temporal changes in abundance–occupancy relationships over 40 years

1. Abundance–occupancy (A–O) relationships are widely documented for many organismal groups and regions, and have been used to gain an understanding of regional population and community trends. Monitoring changes in abundance and occupancy over time may be what is required to document changes in conservation status and needs for some species, communities, or areas.
2. We hypothesize that if there is a higher proportion of declining species in one group of species compared with another (e.g., migratory species vs. permanent residents), then a consequence of that difference will be vastly different abundance–occupancy relationships. If this difference persists through time, then the resulting A–O relationships between the groups will continue to diverge.
3. For neotropical migrants, short‐distance migrants, and permanent resident birds of North America, we assess the numbers of declining species over 1969–2009. We further test for differences in the A–O relationship across these three groups, and in rates of change in abundance and occupancy separately.
4. We find significant differences in numbers of declining species across the migratory groups, a significant decline in the A–O relationship for permanent residents, a significant increase for Neotropical migrants, and a nonsignificant decline for short‐distance migrants over the 40 years. Further, abundances are not changing at different rates but occupancies are consistently greater over time for neotropical migrants versus permanent residents, likely driving the changes in A–O relationships observed.
5. In these analyses, we documented changing A–O trends for different groups of species, over a relatively long time period for ecological studies, one of only a few studies to examine A–O relationships over time. Further, we have shown that a temporally unvarying abundance–occupancy relationship is not universal, and we posit that variability in A–O relationships is due to human impacts on habitats, coupled with variation in species' abilities to respond to human impacts.

     

Temporally stable abundance–occupancy relationships and occupancy frequency patterns in stream insects

The interspecific relationship between local abundance and regional distribution, as well as the occupancy frequency distribution, are widely studied topics in macroecology. A positive abundance-occupancy relationship has been found in a majority of studies, and satellite species modes are typically dominant in occupancy frequency distributions. However, there are a number of exceptions to these "general" findings, and only a few studies have examined these patterns and their temporal variability in stream organisms. I examined both abundance-occupancy relationships and occupancy frequency distributions in stream insects in a boreal drainage system over six consecutive years. I found that the positive interspecific abundance-occupancy relationship was highly stable temporally, with coefficients of determination ranging from 0.25 to 0.47 over the years. There were no strong differences in the strength and slope of the abundance-occupancy relationship between non-predatory and predatory insect species in each year. Temporally stable abundance-occupancy relationships were paralleled by among-year patterns in both abundance and occupancy, with locally abundant and widely distributed species remaining locally abundant and widely distributed over the years, while locally uncommon and regionally rare species showed the opposite. Occupancy frequency distributions were strongly right-skewed, mirroring the dominance of the left-most satellite mode of regionally rare species. That the abundance-occupancy relationship, species' abundances and distributions, as well as the dominance of satellite species in occupancy frequency distribution were temporally stable suggest that niche-based models are strong candidates for explaining these patterns in stream insects. By contrast, metapopulation-based models that predict clear temporal variability in species' abundance and occupancy, as well as bimodal occupancy frequency distributions, are less plausible candidates for explaining the observed patterns. The present findings are the opposite to those in some terrestrial studies, but they are in agreement with other terrestrial studies and with a few previous studies on stream organisms.     

Strengths and weaknesses of museum and national survey data sets for predicting regional species richness: comparative and combined approaches

We compiled three independent data sets of bird species occurrences in northeastern Colorado to test how predicted species richness compared to a combined analysis using all the data. The first data set was a georeferenced regional museum data set from two major repositories — the Denver Museum of Nature, and the Science and University of Colorado Museum. The two national survey data sets were the Breeding Bird Survey (summer), and the Great Backyard Bird Count (winter). Resulting analyses show that the museum data sets give richness estimates closest to the combined data set while exhibiting a skewed abundance distribution, whereas survey data sets do not accurately estimate overall richness even though they contain far more records. The combined data set allows the strengths of one data set to augment weaknesses in others. It is likely some museum data sets display skewed abundance distributions due to collectors’ potentially self‐selecting under‐represented species over common ones.     

Relationships between local population persistence, local abundance and regional occupancy of species: distribution patterns of diatoms in boreal streams

Aims We have two aims: (1) to examine the relationship between local population persistence, local abundance and regional occupancy of stream diatoms and (2) to characterize the form of the species–occupancy frequency distribution of stream diatoms. Location Boreal streams in Finland. There were three spatial extents: (1) across ecoregions in Finland, (2) within ecoregions in Finland, and (3) within a single drainage system in southern Finland. Methods Diatoms were sampled from stones (epilithon), sediment (epipelon) and aquatic plants (epiphyton) in streams using standardized sampling methods. To assess population persistence, diatom sampling was conducted monthly at four stream sites from June to October. The relationships between local population persistence, local abundance and regional occupancy were examined using correlation analyses. Results There was a significant positive relationship between local persistence and abundance of diatoms in epilithon, epipelon and epiphyton. Furthermore, local abundance and regional occupancy showed a significant positive relationship at multiple spatial extents; that is, across ecoregions, within ecoregions and within a drainage system. The relationships between occupancy and abundance did not differ appreciably among impacted and near pristine‐reference sites. The occupancy–frequency distribution was characterized by a large number of satellite species which occurred at only a few sites, whereas core species that occurred at most sites were virtually absent. Main conclusions The positive relationship between local population persistence and abundance suggested that a high local abundance may prevent local extinction or that high persistence is facilitated by a high local cell density. High local persistence and local abundance may also positively affect the degree of regional occupancy in stream diatoms. The results further showed that anthropogenic effects were probably too weak to bias the relationship between occupancy and abundance, or that the effects have already modified the distribution patterns of stream diatoms. The small number of core species in the species–occupancy frequency distribution suggested that the regional distribution patterns of stream diatoms, or perhaps unicellular microbial organisms in general, may not be fundamentally different from those described previously for multicellular organisms, mainly in terrestrial environments, although average global range sizes may differ sharply between these two broad groups of organisms.     

Estimating regional landbird populations from enhanced North American Breeding Bird Surveys

Estimating the size of bird populations is central to effective conservation planning and prudent management. I updated estimated regional bird populations for the East Gulf Coastal Plain of Mississippi using data from 275 North American Breeding Bird Surveys from 2009 to 2013. However, regional bird populations estimated from count surveys of breeding birds may be biased due to lack of empirical knowledge of the distance at which a species is effectively detected and the probability of detecting a species if it is present. I used data recorded within two distance classes (0–50 m and >50–400 m) and three 1‐min time intervals on 130 Breeding Bird Surveys to estimate detection probability and effective detection distance for 77 species. Incorporating these empirical estimates of detection probability and detection distance resulted in estimated regional populations for these species that were markedly greater than regional populations estimated without species‐specific estimates of detection parameters. Using the same Breeding Bird Survey data, I also estimated probability of site occupancy for 66 species and extrapolated this to the proportion of area occupied in the East Gulf Coastal Plain of Mississippi. I combined the area occupied with the reported range of breeding territory size for 54 species to obtain independent estimates of regional bird populations. Although the true population of these species is unknown, estimated populations that incorporated empirical estimates of detection probability and detection distance were more likely to be within the range of independently estimated, occupancy‐based, regional population estimates than were population estimates that lacked empirical detection and distance information.     

Using the first European Breeding Bird Atlas for science and perspectives for the new Atlas

Capsule: The first European Bird Census Council (EBCC) Atlas of European Breeding Birds has been widely used in scientific publications.

Aims: To quantify how scientific publications have used data from the first European Bird Census Council (EBCC) Atlas of European Breeding Birds, what the topics of these studies have been, and to identify key aspects in which a second European Breeding Bird Atlas will provide new opportunities for basic and applied science.

Methods: We searched Google Scholar to find papers published in scientific journals that cited the first atlas. We analysed the contents of a random selection of 100 papers citing this atlas and described the way these papers used information from it.

Results: The first atlas has been cited in 3150 scientific publications, and can be regarded as a fundamental reference for studies about birds in Europe. It was extensively used as a key reference for the studied bird species. A substantial number of papers re-analysed atlas data to derive new information on species distribution, ecological traits and population sizes. Distribution and ecology were the most frequent topics of studies referring to the atlas, but this source of information was used in a diverse range of studies. In this context, climate change, impact of agriculture and habitat loss were, by order, the most frequently studied environmental pressures. Constraints in the atlas, such as the poor coverage in the east of Europe, the lack of information on distribution change and the coarse resolution were identified as issues limiting the use of the atlas for some purposes.

Conclusions: This study demonstrates the scientific value of European-wide breeding bird atlases. A second atlas, with its almost complete coverage across Europe, the incorporation of changes in distribution between the two atlases and the inclusion of modelled maps at a resolution of 10?×?10?km will certainly become a key data source and reference for researchers in the near future.     

Abundance-variance and abundance-occupancy relationships in a marine host-parasite system: the importance of taxonomy and ecology of transmission

Abundance-occupancy and abundance-variance relationships are two of the most general macroecological patterns capturing essential fundamentals of the structuring of species distributions and are widely documented for free-living animal and plant species populations at different spatial scales. However, empirical data for parasites have been gathered using appropriate sampling designs only recently. We performed analyses across species of the variation in infection parameters and patterns of aggregation of the most widespread parasites in the marine sparid fish Boops boops across seven localities of two marine biogeographical regions, the North East Atlantic and the Mediterranean. We used a large dataset of multiple population samples replicated over time for 20 parasite species and carried out assessments both intraspecifically and interspecifically, across taxonomic and ecological groupings. This taxonomically diverse complex of species representing five major metazoan higher taxa with differing transmission ecologies allowed us to assess the effect of taxonomic and ecological determinants on the abundance-occupancy and abundance-variance relationships in the model marine host-parasite system. The results revealed that: (i) a power function, relating spatial variance to mean abundance, represents a suitable model for the spatial distribution of the species; (ii) prevalence, abundance and the degree of spatial heterogeneity are true species characteristics and differ consistently between higher level taxonomic groupings; (iii) infection parameters and abundance-variance relationship are dependent on host specificity and regional distribution patterns of the parasites; and (iv) the observed infection parameters agree well with predictions from the epidemiological negative binomial abundance-occupancy model built on parameters of Taylor's power law both within and across species.     

Multidirectional abundance shifts among North American birds and the relative influence of multifaceted climate factors

Shifts in species distributions are major fingerprint of climate change. Examining changes in species abundance structures at a continental scale enables robust evaluation of climate change influences, but few studies have conducted these evaluations due to limited data and methodological constraints. In this study, we estimate temporal changes in abundance from North American Breeding Bird Survey data at the scale of physiographic strata to examine the relative influence of different components of climatic factors and evaluate the hypothesis that shifting species distributions are multidirectional in resident bird species in North America. We quantify the direction and velocity of the abundance shifts of 57 permanent resident birds over 44 years using a centroid analysis. For species with significant abundance shifts in the centroid analysis, we conduct a more intensive correlative analysis to identify climate components most strongly associated with composite change of abundance within strata. Our analysis focus on two contrasts: the relative importance of climate extremes vs. averages, and of temperature vs. precipitation in strength of association with abundance change. Our study shows that 36 species had significant abundance shifts over the study period. The average velocity of the centroid is 5.89 km·yr^?1. The shifted distance on average covers 259 km, 9% of range extent. Our results strongly suggest that the climate change fingerprint in studied avian distributions is multidirectional. Among 6 directions with significant abundance shifts, the northwestward shift was observed in the largest number of species (n = 13). The temperature/average climate model consistently has greater predictive ability than the precipitation/extreme climate model in explaining strata‐level abundance change. Our study shows heterogeneous avian responses to recent environmental changes. It highlights needs for more species‐specific approaches to examine contributing factors to recent distributional changes and for comprehensive conservation planning for climate change adaptation.     

Cross‐scale effects of spruce budworm outbreaks on boreal warblers in eastern Canada

Insect outbreaks are major natural disturbance events that affect communities of forest birds, either directly by affecting the food supply or indirectly by changing the vegetation composition of forest canopies. An examination of correlations between measures of bird and insect abundance across different spatial scales and over varying time lag effects may provide insight into underlying mechanisms. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to assess correlations between counts of eight warbler species from the Breeding Bird Survey in eastern Canada, 1966 to 2009, with the presence of spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) at immediate local scales and time‐lagged regional scales, as measured by extent of defoliation on host tree species. Budworm‐associated species Cape May warbler (Setophaga tigrina), bay‐breasted warbler (Setophaga castanea), and Tennessee warbler (Oreothlypis peregrina) responded strongly and positively to both local and regional effects. In contrast, non‐budworm‐associated species, Blackburnian warbler (Setophaga fusca), magnolia warbler (Setophaga magnolia), Canada warbler (Cardellina canadensis), black‐throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens), and black‐throated green warbler (Setophaga virens), only responded to regional effects in a manner that varied across eastern Canada. The complex responses by forest birds to insect outbreaks involve both increased numerical responses to food supply and to longer term responses to changes in forest structure and composition. These effects can vary across spatial scales and be captured in hierarchical population models, which can serve to disentangle common trends from data when examining drivers of population dynamics like forest management or climate change.     

Do developmental mode and dispersal shape abundance-occupancy relationships in marine macroinvertebrates?

1. Dispersal is a crucial process in maintaining population structures in many organisms, and is hypothesized as a process underlying the interspecific relationship between abundance and distribution. Here we examined whether there was a link between the dispersal and developmental modes of marine macroinvertebrates and the slopes and elevations of interspecific abundance-occupancy relationships. We predicted that if within-site retention of larvae ranks in the order brooders > lecithotrophs > planktotrophs, for any given level of mean abundance, occupancy should increase in the order brooders < lecithotrophs < planktotrophs. We also predicted that propensity to form metapopulations should be greater for planktonic dispersers (i.e. lecithotrophs and planktotrophs combined) than for non-planktonic (i.e. brooders), resulting in steeper abundance-occupancy relationships for the former. 2. Predictions were tested using a data set for 362 subtidal marine macroinvertebrates occurring across 446 1-km(2) grid squares around the British Isles; analyses were performed on the data set as a whole and for separate phyla. 3. The total data set had a Z-transformed effect size of 0.79, within the confidence intervals described by Blackburn et al. (2006; Journal of Animal Ecology, 75, 1426-1439), and was consistently present with relatively homogeneous effect size in separate analyses of polychaetes, crustaceans, molluscs and echinoderms. 4. In all cases, planktonic dispersing organisms showed an abundance-occupancy relationship with greater elevation than that for non-planktonic organisms; in polychaetes the elevation of slopes was in the rank order planktotrophs > lecithotrophs > brooders. No differences between the slopes of the abundance-occupancy relationship were apparent for different dispersal modes either within, or across phyla. 5. We conclude that dispersal capacity may play an important part in determining the elevation of the abundance-occupancy relationship, the corollary of low dispersal in the marine realm being greater local retention of larvae and greater local population abundance at low extents of geographical distribution.     

Observer aging and long‐term avian survey data quality

Long‐term wildlife monitoring involves collecting time series data, often using the same observers over multiple years. Aging‐related changes to these observers may be an important, under‐recognized source of error that can bias management decisions. In this study, we used data from two large, independent bird surveys, the Atlas of the Breeding Birds of Ontario (“OBBA”) and the North American Breeding Bird Survey (“BBS”), to test for age‐related observer effects in long‐term time series of avian presence and abundance. We then considered the effect of such aging phenomena on current population trend estimates. We found significantly fewer detections among older versus younger observers for 13 of 43 OBBA species, and declines in detection as an observer ages for 4 of 6 vocalization groups comprising 59 of 64 BBS species. Consistent with hearing loss influencing this pattern, we also found evidence for increasingly severe detection declines with increasing call frequency among nine high‐pitched bird species (OBBA); however, there were also detection declines at other frequencies, suggesting important additional effects of aging, independent of hearing loss. We lastly found subtle, significant relationships between some species' published population trend estimates and (1) their corresponding vocalization frequency (n ≥ 22 species) and (2) their estimated declines in detectability among older observers (n = 9 high‐frequency, monotone species), suggesting that observer aging can negatively bias long‐term monitoring data for some species in part through hearing loss effects. We recommend that survey designers and modelers account for observer age where possible.     

Twenty‐five years of change in southern African passerine diversity: nonclimatic factors of change

We analysed more than 25 years of change in passerine bird distribution in South Africa, Swaziland and Lesotho, to show that species distributions can be influenced by processes that are at least in part independent of the local strength and direction of climate change: land use and ecological succession. We used occupancy models that separate species' detection from species' occupancy probability, fitted to citizen science data from both phases of the Southern African Bird Atlas Project (1987–1996 and 2007–2013). Temporal trends in species' occupancy probability were interpreted in terms of local extinction/colonization, and temporal trends in detection probability were interpreted in terms of change in abundance. We found for the first time at this scale that, as predicted in the context of bush encroachment, closed‐savannah specialists increased where open‐savannah specialists decreased. In addition, the trend in the abundance of species a priori thought to be favoured by agricultural conversion was negatively correlated with human population density, which is in line with hypotheses explaining the decline in farmland birds in the Northern Hemisphere. In addition to climate, vegetation cover and the intensity and time since agricultural conversion constitute important predictors of biodiversity changes in the region. Their inclusion will improve the reliability of predictive models of species distribution.     

Comparative dynamics of avian communities across edges and interiors of North American ecoregions

Aim Based on a priori hypotheses, we developed predictions about how avian communities might differ at the edges vs. interiors of ecoregions. Specifically, we predicted lower species richness and greater local turnover and extinction probabilities for regional edges. We tested these predictions using North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data across nine ecoregions over a 20‐year time period. Location Data from 2238 BBS routes within nine ecoregions of the United States were used. Methods The estimation methods used accounted for species detection probabilities < 1. Parameter estimates for species richness, local turnover and extinction probabilities were obtained using the program COMDYN. We examined the difference in community‐level parameters estimated from within exterior edges (the habitat interface between ecoregions), interior edges (the habitat interface between two bird conservation regions within the same ecoregion) and interior (habitat excluding interfaces). General linear models were constructed to examine sources of variation in community parameters for five ecoregions (containing all three habitat types) and all nine ecoregions (containing two habitat types). Results Analyses provided evidence that interior habitats and interior edges had on average higher bird species richness than exterior edges, providing some evidence of reduced species richness near habitat edges. Lower average extinction probabilities and turnover rates in interior habitats (five‐region analysis) provided some support for our predictions about these quantities. However, analyses directed at all three response variables, i.e. species richness, local turnover, and local extinction probability, provided evidence of an interaction between habitat and region, indicating that the relationships did not hold in all regions. Main conclusions The overall predictions of lower species richness, higher local turnover and extinction probabilities in regional edge habitats, as opposed to interior habitats, were generally supported. However, these predicted tendencies did not hold in all regions.     

Relationships between distribution and abundance vary with spatial scale and ecological group in stream bryophytes

1. We examined whether the local abundance of stream bryophytes in a boreal drainage basin (Koutajoki system in northeastern Finland) correlated with their: (i) regional occupancy; (ii) provincial distribution in northwestern Europe; and (iii) global range size. We specifically tested whether aquatic and semi‐aquatic species differ in their distribution–abundance relationships. We also analysed the frequency distributions of occupancy at two spatial scales: within the focal drainage system and across provinces of northwestern Europe. 2. Regional occupancy and mean local abundance of stream bryophytes were positively correlated, and the relationship was rather strong in aquatic species but very weak in semi‐aquatic species. Local abundance was related neither to provincial distribution nor global distribution. 3. Species frequency distributions differed between regional occupancy and provincial distribution. While most species were rare with regard to their regional occupancy within the focal drainage system, most of the same set of species were common and occurred in most provinces in northwestern Europe. 4. The results indicate the presence of dominants (core species) and transients/subordinates (satellite species) among stream bryophytes, highlighting marked differentiation in life‐history strategies and growth form. The observed abundance–occupancy relationships suggest that dispersal limitation and metapopulation processes may govern the dynamics of obligatory aquatic stream bryophytes. In semi‐aquatic species, however, habitat availability may be more important in contributing to regional occupancy.     

Estimating indices of range shifts in birds using dynamic models when detection is imperfect

There is intense interest in basic and applied ecology about the effect of global change on current and future species distributions. Projections based on widely used static modeling methods implicitly assume that species are in equilibrium with the environment and that detection during surveys is perfect. We used multiseason correlated detection occupancy models, which avoid these assumptions, to relate climate data to distributional shifts of Louisiana Waterthrush in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. We summarized these shifts with indices of range size and position and compared them to the same indices obtained using more basic modeling approaches. Detection rates during point counts in BBS surveys were low, and models that ignored imperfect detection severely underestimated the proportion of area occupied and slightly overestimated mean latitude. Static models indicated Louisiana Waterthrush distribution was most closely associated with moderate temperatures, while dynamic occupancy models indicated that initial occupancy was associated with diurnal temperature ranges and colonization of sites was associated with moderate precipitation. Overall, the proportion of area occupied and mean latitude changed little during the 1997–2013 study period. Near‐term forecasts of species distribution generated by dynamic models were more similar to subsequently observed distributions than forecasts from static models. Occupancy models incorporating a finite mixture model on detection – a new extension to correlated detection occupancy models – were better supported and may reduce bias associated with detection heterogeneity. We argue that replacing phenomenological static models with more mechanistic dynamic models can improve projections of future species distributions. In turn, better projections can improve biodiversity forecasts, management decisions, and understanding of global change biology.     

Bird abundance and species richness on Florida lakes: influence of trophic status,lake morphology,and aquatic macrophytes

Data from 46 Florida lakes were used to examine relationships between bird abundance (numbers and biomass) and species richness, and lake trophic status, lake morphology and aquatic macrophyte abundance. Average annual bird numbers ranged from 7 to 800 birds km^–2 and bird biomass ranged from 1 to 465 kg km^–2. Total species richness ranged from 1 to 30 species per lake. Annual average bird numbers and biomass were positively correlated to lake trophic status as assessed by total phosphorus (r = 0.61), total nitrogen (r = 0.60) and chlorophyll a (r = 0.56) concentrations. Species richness was positively correlated to lake area (r = 0.86) and trophic status (r = 0.64 for total phosphorus concentrations). The percentage of the total annual phosphorus load contributed to 14 Florida lakes by bird populations was low averaging 2.4%. Bird populations using Florida lakes, therefore, do not significantly impact the trophic status of the lakes under natural situations, but lake trophic status is a major factor influencing bird abundance and species richness on lakes. Bird abundance and species richness were not significantly correlated to other lake morphology or aquatic macrophyte parameters after the effects of lake area and trophic status were accounted for using stepwise multiple regression. The lack of significant relations between annual average bird abundance and species richness and macrophyte abundance seems to be related to changes in bird species composition. Bird abundance and species richness remain relatively stable as macrophyte abundance increases, but birds that use open-water habitats (e.g., double-crested cormorant, Phalacrocorax auritus) are replaced by species that use macrophyte communities (e.g., ring-necked duck, Aythya collaris).     

Characterizing abundance–occupancy relationships: there is no artefact

Positive abundance–occupancy relationships (AORs) are among the most general macroecological patterns: locally common species are regionally widespread, locally rare species are regionally restricted. In a recent contribution, Wilson (Global Ecology and Biogeography, 2011, 20 , 193–202) made three claims: (1) that AORs are critically dependent on the method used to calculate average abundance; (2) averaging abundance over occupied sites tends to lead to a very high incidence of negative relationships; (3) this represents a statistical artefact that should be considered in studies of AORs. Here we show that this outcome arises in Wilson's simulations purely due to an arbitrary choice of occupancy models and parameter ranges. The resulting negative relationships are not statistical artefacts, but are easily interpreted in terms of spatial aggregation in abundant species. The fact that empirical evidence fails to support a high prevalence of negative AORs suggests, however, that such parameter combinations arise only rarely in nature. We conclude that simulations that are based on untested assumptions, and that produce patterns unsupported by empirical evidence, have limited use in characterizing AORs, and add little to understanding of the processes driving important relationships between local population size and regional occupancy.