Poleward shifts in breeding bird distributions in New York State

Like other regions of the northern hemisphere, the northeastern United States has experienced a general increase in regional temperatures over the past 20 years. Quantifying the ecological implications of these changing temperatures has been severely constrained by a lack of multispecies distributional data by which to compare long-term changes. We used the New York State Breeding Bird Atlas, a statewide survey of 5332 25 km² blocks surveyed in 1980–1985 and 2000–2005, to test several predictions that the birds of New York State are responding to climate change. Our objective was to use an information-theoretic approach to analyze changes in three geographic range characteristics, the center of occurrence, range boundaries, and states of occurrence to address several predictions that the birds of New York State are moving polewards and up in elevation. As expected, we found all bird species ( n =129) included in this analysis showed an average northward range shift in their mean latitude of 3.58 km [ Prob ( H _a|data)=0.87)]. Past studies have found that northern range boundaries are more likely to be influenced by climatic factors than southern range boundaries. Consequently, we predicted that northward shifts would be more evident in northern as opposed to southern range boundaries. We found, however, that the southern range boundaries of northerly birds moved northward by 11.4 km [ n =43, Prob ( H _a|data)=0.92], but this pattern was less evident in northern range boundaries of southerly birds. In addition, we found that bird species demonstrated a general shift downhill in their mean elevation, but demonstrated little change in their elevational boundaries. The repeated pattern of a predicted northward shift in bird ranges in various geographic regions of the world provides compelling evidence that climate change is driving range shifts.     

Existence and stability of equilibria in age-structured population dynamics

The existence of positive equilibrium solutions of the McKendrick equations for the dynamics of an age-structured population is studied as a bifurcation phenomenon using the inherent net reproductive rate n as a bifurcation parameter. The local existence and uniqueness of a branch of positive equilibria which bifurcates from the trivial (identically zero) solution at the critical value n=1 are proved by implicit function techniques under very mild smoothness conditions on the death and fertility rates as functional of age and population density. This first requires the development of a suitable linear theory. The lowest order terms in the Liapunov-Schmidt expansions are also calculated. This local analysis supplements earlier global bifurcation results of the author. The stability of both the trivial and the positive branch equilibria is studied by means of the principle of linearized stability. It is shown that in general the trivial solution losses stability as n increases through one while the stability of the branch solution is stable if and only if the bifurcation is supercritical. Thus the McKendrick equations exhibit, in the latter case, a standard exchange of stability with regard to equilibrium states as they depend on the inherent net reproductive rate. The derived lower order terms in the Liapunov-Schmidt expansions yield formulas which explicitly relate the direction of bifurcation to properties of the age-specific death and fertility rates as functionals of population density. Analytical and numerical results for some examples are given which illustrate these results.     

浙南地区烟粉虱发生新动态及其防治对策

长期以来,烟粉虱[Bemisia tabaci（Gennadius）]在浙南地区仅是一种未被重视的次要害虫,但近几年该虫在本地区呈突发性暴发态势,危害严重。笔者就烟粉虱在浙南地区发生的新动态及其原因、综合防治措施等进行了调研和综述。     

The macroecology of population dynamics: taxonomic and biogeographic patterns in population cycles

Regular cycles in population abundance are fascinating phenomena, but are they common in natural populations? How are they distributed among taxa? Are there differences between different regions of the world, or along latitudinal gradients? Using the new Global Population Dynamics Database we analysed nearly 700 long (25 + years) time series of animal field populations, looking for large-scale patterns in cycles. Nearly 30% of the time series were cyclic. Cycle incidence varied among taxonomic classes, being most common in mammal and fish populations, but only in fish did cycle incidence vary among orders. Cycles were equally common in European and North American populations, but were more common in Atlantic fish than Pacific fish. The incidence of cycles increased with latitude in mammals only. There was no latitudinal gradient in cycle period, but cycle amplitude declined with latitude in some groups of fish. Even after considering the biases in the data source and expected type I error, population cycles seem common enough to warrant ecological attention.     

橄榄星室木虱的种群动态及药剂防治

橄榄星室木虱在福建省莆田地区 1年发生 8代 ,世代重叠 ,以成虫越冬 ,1年中有 6个发生高峰期 ,以橄榄秋梢期为全年雌成虫产卵、若虫发生最高峰 ,夏梢期是成虫羽化全年最高峰。田间药效试验结果表明 ,1 5种杀虫剂对橄榄星室木虱都有较好的防效 ,持效期可长达 7d以上 ,药后 7d的防效都在90 %以上 ,但速效性差异较大。其中 ,以 1 %威宝乳油 2 0 0 0倍、2 5 %功夫菊酯乳油 2 0 0 0倍、2 5 %功夫菊酯 +1 0 %吡虫啉 ( 1 2 5∶1 ) 2 0 0 0倍和 2 5 %功夫菊酯 +1 0 %吡虫啉 ( 1∶2 ) 2 0 0 0倍对橄榄星室木虱效果最好 ,速效性好 ,药后 1d的防效均达 91 5 8%以上。     

桃一点斑叶蝉种群消长动态和空间分布型研究

研究探明了桃一点斑叶蝉Erythroneurasudra种群消长动态和空间分布型 ,结果表明 :该虫在桃园全年共出现 3个为害高峰 ,分别发生于 4月下旬、5月下旬和 8月上旬 ;该害虫在桃园中呈聚集型的负二项分布。讨论了适宜取样调查方法。     

Prospecting and dispersal: their eco-evolutionary dynamics and implications for population patterns

Dispersal is not a blind process, and evidence is accumulating that individual dispersal strategies are informed in most, if not all, organisms. The acquisition and use of information are traits that may evolve across space and time as a function of the balance between costs and benefits of informed dispersal. If information is available, individuals can potentially use it in making better decisions, thereby increasing their fitness. However, prospecting for and using information probably entail costs that may constrain the evolution of informed dispersal, potentially with population-level consequences. By using individual-based, spatially explicit simulations, we detected clear coevolutionary dynamics between prospecting and dispersal movement strategies that differed in sign and magnitude depending on their respective costs. More specifically, we found that informed dispersal strategies evolve when the costs of information acquisition during prospecting are low but only if there are mortality costs associated with dispersal movements. That is, selection favours informed dispersal strategies when the acquisition and use processes themselves were not too expensive. When non-informed dispersal strategies evolve, they do so jointly with the evolution of long dispersal distance because this maximizes the sampling area. In some cases, selection produces dispersal rules different from those that would be ‘optimal’ (i.e. the best possible population performance—in our context quantitatively measured as population density and patch occupancy—among all possible individual movement rules) for the population. That is, on the one hand, informed dispersal strategies led to population performance below its highest possible level. On the other hand, un- and poorly informed individuals nearly optimized population performance, both in terms of density and patch occupancy.     

荔枝蝽田间种群消长动态及空间分布型研究

对海南省儋州地区荔枝园中荔枝蝽Tessaratoma papillosa(Drury)种群动态及空间分布进行了系统调查与分析。结果表明,在2005—2006与2008—2009年期间,荔枝蝽的产卵高峰期分别为4月与2月,若虫高峰期为3月,成虫高峰期分别为4月及7月;分析表明荔枝蝽各虫态在荔枝园中均为聚集分布,且成虫个体间相互排斥。     

井冈山天然大果马蹄荷种群的动态变化

应用离散富里叶变换研究井冈山天然大果马蹄荷的种群动态规律,结果表明：大果马蹄荷种群动态存在着周期波动规律,大周期为１４０年,中周期７０年,小周期２８￣３５年,与大果马蹄荷个体生长的周期波动一致。天然大果马蹄荷的世代划分为７０年为宜,人工林以２５年为宜。该研究结果可为天然林的管理和持续利用提供科学依据。     

Disturbance and population dynamics of rotifers in bed sediments

Rotifers inhabiting the sediment surface and the hyporheic interstitial of a gravel stream were investigated between October 1991 and October 1992. At the sediment surface, samples were taken with a modified Hess sampler at five randomly chosen sites and at roughly weekly intervals. In the hyporheic interstitial, samples were collected using standpipe traps permanently installed at two sites at four sediment depths (0–40 cm), and every fifteen days. The distribution of five rotifer species revealed different temporal and spatial patterns. Two species, Notholca foliacea (Ehrb.) and Notholca squamula (O.F.M.) co-occurred having their temporal peaks at the beginning of summer and in autumn. Cephalodella gibba (Ehrb.) and Proales theodora (Gosse) occurred throughout the year, while Parencentrum longipes (Wulf.) showed a clear peak during the spring only in the hyporheic interstitial. The effect of variables such as water level, surface discharge and variation of the groundwater level was tested upon the densities of each species. Despite the spring spate, the species are able to persist due to the presence of low-flow refuge habitats or the dispersion into deeper layer of the hyporheic interstitial.     

Status and distribution of European Nightjars Caprimulgus europaeus in the UK in 2004

Capsule The population of Nightjars in the UK increased by over 36% between 1992 and 2004.

Aims To determine the population size and distribution of Nightjars in the UK and examine associations with forestry and heathland habitat features.

Methods A volunteer survey was supported by professional cover in remote parts of Wales, and areas of Dorset and lowland Scotland. Two visits to allocated 1-km squares were made between late May and mid-July. Each surveyor recorded the locations of calling males onto maps and the occurrence of habitat categories within 50 m of each Nightjar registration.

Results Observers surveyed 3264 1-km squares in 2004 and, on average, 78% of the target habitat (90% in southern England). The total number of males counted was 4131 (range 3850–4414), adjusted to 4606 (95% CL ± 913) to account for unsurveyed habitat. The adjusted total represented a 36% increase in 12 years. Nightjars were recorded in 275 10-km squares in 2004, a 2.6% increase since 1992. However, there was evidence of population decline and range contractions in northwest Britain, including north Wales, northwest England and in Scotland. In 2004, 57% of Nightjars were associated with forest plantations (similar to 1992) and 59% with heathland (slightly higher than in 1992).

Conclusion National objectives for Nightjar conservation (UK Biodiversity Action Plan: UKBAP) were reached in respect of population size and stability, but the target for a 5% range increase by 2003 was not met. The continued increase in the national population is probably attributable to habitat protection, management and restoration of heathlands, and the continued availability of clear-fell/young plantations in conifer forests. Management and/or protection/restoration/re-creation of these key habitats remains critical for the long-term objectives of UKBAP. The issue of providing foraging habitats, perhaps via agri-environment schemes, is also raised.     

Survival of Svalbard pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus in relation to winter climate, density and land-use

1. Global change may strongly affect population dynamics, but mechanisms remain elusive. Several Arctic goose species have increased considerably during the last decades. Climate, and land-use changes outside the breeding area have been invoked as causes but have not been tested. We analysed the relationships between conditions on wintering and migration staging areas, and survival in Svalbard pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus. Using mark-recapture data from 14 winters (1989-2002) we estimated survival rates and tested for time trends, and effects of climate, goose density and land-use. 2. Resighting rates differed for males and females, were higher for birds recorded during the previous winter and changed smoothly over time. Survival rates did not differ between sexes, varied over time with a nonsignificant negative trend, and were higher for the first interval after marking (0.88-0.97) than afterwards (0.74-0.93). Average survival estimates were 0.967 (SE 0.026) for the first and 0.861 (SE 0.023) for all later survival intervals. 3. We combined 16 winter and spring climate covariates into two principal components axes. F1 was related to warm/wet winters and an early spring on the Norwegian staging areas and F2 to dry/cold winters. We expected that F1 would be positively related to survival and F2 negatively. F1 explained 23% of survival variation (F1,10=3.24; one-sided P=0.051) when alone in a model and 28% (F1,9=4.50; one-sided P=0.031) in a model that assumed a trend for survival. In contrast, neither F2 nor density, land-use, or scaring practices on important Norwegian spring staging areas had discernible effects on survival. 4. Climate change may thus affect goose population dynamics, with warmer winters and earlier springs enhancing survival and fecundity. A possible mechanism is increased food availability on Danish wintering and Norwegian staging areas. As geese are among the main herbivores in Arctic ecosystems, climate change, by increasing goose populations, may have important indirect effects on Arctic vegetation. Our study also highlights the importance of events outside the breeding area for the population dynamics of migrant species.     

Biology of parasite populations: population dynamics of bothriocephalids (Cestoda-Pseudophyllidea) in teleostean fish

Relationships between sympatric populations of four species of Cestoda belonging to the genus Bothriocephalus ( B. barbarus. B. gregarius, B. funiculus and B. scorpii ) and populations of their respective hosts Scophthalmus rhombus, Pserra maxima, Ciliata mustela and Myoxocephalus scorpius were investigated. The parasites were overdispersed within their host populations. The mean intensities of B. burbarus were 1.59 ( s.d. =0.83) in the Mediterranean (Gulf of Lions) and 1.25 ( s.d. =0.53) in the Atlantic (coasts of Brittany). The mean intensities of B. gregarius were 62.3 ( s.d. =49.7) in the Mediterranean and 14.06 ( s.d. =18.48) in the Atlantic, compared to 1.78 ( s.d. =0.3) for B. funiculus and 21.6 ( s.d. =17.3) for B. scorpii .
The distribution of prevalence of B. gregarius corresponded to a lognormal distribution while those of B. barbatus and B. fwticulus corresponded to negative binomials. No differences in infection could be related to host sex. The parasitization of B. gregariusdepended on host size. In brill, infection by E. barbatus was independent of host size and remained stable after the fish reached 180mm in length. Parasitization of turbot by E. gregarius was lower in young fish (≤110–150 mm) and increased with the host size. Compared to the Atlantic populations of B. gregarius and B. barbatus, the Mediterranean populations were more frequently and intensively infected. The differences in the population dynamics of B. gregarius and B. barbarus would appear to depend on whether or not the life cycle involves a paratenic host.     

不同水稻生育期对稻粉虱种群动态的影响

本主要研究了不同水稻生育期对稻粉虱Aleurocybotus indicus种群动态的影响。研究结果表明,水稻分蘖期至拔节期最容易受稻粉虱为害,卵孵化率为88．1％,拟蛹的羽化率为82．9％,孵化率和羽化率均高于水稻其它生育期。     

假眼小绿叶蝉卵的寄生蜂种类及种群动态

通过田间采梢、室内镜下查卵和饲养观察,初步获得假眼小绿叶蝉Empoasca vitis Gthe卵寄生蜂2种,分别隶属于三棒缨小蜂属Stethynium sp.和裂骨缨小蜂属Schizophragma sp.,其中三棒缨小蜂属Stethyniumsp.是优势种。2种缨小蜂的寄生动态调查结果显示,除8月和12月寄生率较低外,其它月份的自然寄生率都在30%以上,特别是10~11月寄生率最高达65%,对小绿叶蝉的虫口数量具有重要控制作用,值得进一步研究和保护利用。