Bayesian inference of genetic parameters for ultrasound scanning traits of Kivircik lambs

Ultrasound scanning traits have been adapted in selection programs in many countries to improve carcass traits for lean meat production. As the genetic parameters of the traits interested are important for breeding programs, the estimation of these parameters was aimed at the present investigation. The estimated parameters were direct and maternal heritability as well as genetic correlations between the studied traits. The traits were backfat thickness (BFT), skin+backfat thickness (SBFT), eye muscle depth (MD) and live weights at the day of scanning (LW). The breed investigated was Kivircik, which has a high quality of meat. Six different multi-trait animal models were fitted to determine the most suitable model for the data using Bayesian approach. Based on deviance information criterion, a model that includes direct additive genetic effects, maternal additive genetic effects, direct maternal genetic covariance and maternal permanent environmental effects revealed to be the most appropriate for the data, and therefore, inferences were built on the results of that model. The direct heritability estimates for BFT, SBFT, MD and LW were 0.26, 0.26, 0.23 and 0.09, whereas the maternal heritability estimates were 0.27, 0.27, 0.24 and 0.20, respectively. Negative genetic correlations were obtained between direct and maternal effects for BFT, SBFT and MD. Both direct and maternal genetic correlations between traits were favorable, whereas BFT–MD and SBFT–MD had negligible direct genetic correlation. The highest direct and maternal genetic correlations were between BFT and SBFT (0.39) and between MD and LW (0.48), respectively. Our results, in general, indicated that maternal effects should be accounted for in estimation of genetic parameters of ultrasound scanning traits in Kivircik lambs, and SBFT can be used as a selection criterion to improve BFT.     

Tree-guided Bayesian inference of population structures

Motivation: Inferring population structures using genetic datasampled from a group of individuals is a challenging task. Manymethods either consider a fixed population number or ignorethe correlation between populations. As a result, they can losesensitivity and specificity in detecting subtle stratifications.In addition, when a large number of genetic markers are used,many existing algorithms perform rather inefficiently. Result: We propose a new Bayesian method to infer populationstructures using multiple unlinked single nucleotide polymorphisms(SNPs). Our approach explicitly considers the population correlationthrough a tree hierarchy, and treat the population number asa random variable. Using both simulated and real datasets ofworldwide samples, we demonstrate that an incorporated treecan consistently improve the power in detecting subtle populationstratifications. A tree-based model often involves a large numberof unknown parameters, and the corresponding estimation procedurecan be highly inefficient. We further implement a partitionmethod to analytically integrate out all nuisance parametersin the tree. As a result, our method can analyze large SNP datasetswith significantly improved convergence rate. Availability: http://www.stat.psu.edu/~yuzhang/tips.tar Contact: yuzhang{at}stat.psu.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary data are availableat Bioinformatics online. Associate Editor: Keith Crandall     

A genetic algorithm for maximum-likelihood phylogeny inference using nucleotide sequence data

Phylogeny reconstruction is a difficult computational problem, because the number of possible solutions increases with the number of included taxa. For example, for only 14 taxa, there are more than seven trillion possible unrooted phylogenetic trees. For this reason, phylogenetic inference methods commonly use clustering algorithms (e.g., the neighbor-joining method) or heuristic search strategies to minimize the amount of time spent evaluating nonoptimal trees. Even heuristic searches can be painfully slow, especially when computationally intensive optimality criteria such as maximum likelihood are used. I describe here a different approach to heuristic searching (using a genetic algorithm) that can tremendously reduce the time required for maximum-likelihood phylogenetic inference, especially for data sets involving large numbers of taxa. Genetic algorithms are simulations of natural selection in which individuals are encoded solutions to the problem of interest. Here, labeled phylogenetic trees are the individuals, and differential reproduction is effected by allowing the number of offspring produced by each individual to be proportional to that individual's rank likelihood score. Natural selection increases the average likelihood in the evolving population of phylogenetic trees, and the genetic algorithm is allowed to proceed until the likelihood of the best individual ceases to improve over time. An example is presented involving rbcL sequence data for 55 taxa of green plants. The genetic algorithm described here required only 6% of the computational effort required by a conventional heuristic search using tree bisection/reconnection (TBR) branch swapping to obtain the same maximum-likelihood topology.      

Bayesian inference of genetic parameters and selection response for litter size components in pigs.

Three contemporary lines were formed from the progeny of 50 French Large White sows. In the first line, gilts were selected for ovulation rate at puberty. In the second line, they were selected for prenatal survival of the first two parities, corrected for ovulation rate. The control constituted the third line. Ovulation rate at puberty was analyzed using an animal model with a batch effect. Prenatal survival was analyzed with a repeatability animal model that included batch and parity effects. Flat priors were used to represent vague previous knowledge about parity and batch effects. Additive and residual effects were represented assuming that they were a priori normally distributed. Variance components were assumed to follow either uniform or inverted chi-square distributions, a priori. The use of different priors did not affect the results substantially. Heritabilities for ovulation rate ranged from 0.32 to 0.39, and from 0.11 to 0.16 for prenatal survival, depending on the prior used. The mean of the marginal posterior distribution of response to four generations of selection ranged from 0.38 to 0.40 ova per generation, and from 1.1 to 1.3% of the mean survival rate for average survival per generation.     

Bayesian inference of population expansions in domestic bovines

The past population dynamics of four domestic and one wild species of bovine were estimated using Bayesian skyline plots, a coalescent Markov chain Monte Carlo method that does not require an assumed parametric model of demographic history. Four domestic species share a recent rapid population expansion not visible in the wild African buffalo (Syncerus caffer). The estimated timings of the expansions are consistent with the archaeological records of domestication.     

Bayesian inference on genetic merit under uncertain paternity

A hierarchical animal model was developed for inference on genetic merit of livestock with uncertain paternity. Fully conditional posterior distributions for fixed and genetic effects, variance components, sire assignments and their probabilities are derived to facilitate a Bayesian inference strategy using MCMC methods. We compared this model to a model based on the Henderson average numerator relationship (ANRM) in a simulation study with 10 replicated datasets generated for each of two traits. Trait 1 had a medium heritability (h²) for each of direct and maternal genetic effects whereas Trait 2 had a high h² attributable only to direct effects. The average posterior probabilities inferred on the true sire were between 1 and 10% larger than the corresponding priors (the inverse of the number of candidate sires in a mating pasture) for Trait 1 and between 4 and 13% larger than the corresponding priors for Trait 2. The predicted additive and maternal genetic effects were very similar using both models; however, model choice criteria (Pseudo Bayes Factor and Deviance Information Criterion) decisively favored the proposed hierarchical model over the ANRM model.     

Identifiability of parameters in MCMC Bayesian inference of phylogeny

Methods for Bayesian inference of phylogeny using DNA sequences based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques allow the incorporation of arbitrarily complex models of the DNA substitution process, and other aspects of evolution. This has increased the realism of models, potentially improving the accuracy of the methods, and is largely responsible for their recent popularity. Another consequence of the increased complexity of models in Bayesian phylogenetics is that these models have, in several cases, become overparameterized. In such cases, some parameters of the model are not identifiable; different combinations of nonidentifiable parameters lead to the same likelihood, making it impossible to decide among the potential parameter values based on the data. Overparameterized models can also slow the rate of convergence of MCMC algorithms due to large negative correlations among parameters in the posterior probability distribution. Functions of parameters can sometimes be found, in overparameterized models, that are identifiable, and inferences based on these functions are legitimate. Examples are presented of overparameterized models that have been proposed in the context of several Bayesian methods for inferring the relative ages of nodes in a phylogeny when the substitution rate evolves over time.     

Bayesian population genomic inference of crossing over and gene conversion

Meiotic recombination is a fundamental cellular mechanism in sexually reproducing organisms and its different forms, crossing over and gene conversion both play an important role in shaping genetic variation in populations. Here, we describe a coalescent-based full-likelihood Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for jointly estimating the crossing-over, gene-conversion, and mean tract length parameters from population genomic data under a Bayesian framework. Although computationally more expensive than methods that use approximate likelihoods, the relative efficiency of our method is expected to be optimal in theory. Furthermore, it is also possible to obtain a posterior sample of genealogies for the data using this method. We first check the performance of the new method on simulated data and verify its correctness. We also extend the method for inference under models with variable gene-conversion and crossing-over rates and demonstrate its ability to identify recombination hotspots. Then, we apply the method to two empirical data sets that were sequenced in the telomeric regions of the X chromosome of Drosophila melanogaster. Our results indicate that gene conversion occurs more frequently than crossing over in the su-w and su-s gene sequences while the local rates of crossing over as inferred by our program are not low. The mean tract lengths for gene-conversion events are estimated to be ～70 bp and 430 bp, respectively, for these data sets. Finally, we discuss ideas and optimizations for reducing the execution time of our algorithm.     

Bayesian inference on order-constrained parameters in generalized linear models

In biomedical studies, there is often interest in assessing the association between one or more ordered categorical predictors and an outcome variable, adjusting for covariates. For a k-level predictor, one typically uses either a k-1 degree of freedom (df) test or a single df trend test, which requires scores for the different levels of the predictor. In the absence of knowledge of a parametric form for the response function, one can incorporate monotonicity constraints to improve the efficiency of tests of association. This article proposes a general Bayesian approach for inference on order-constrained parameters in generalized linear models. Instead of choosing a prior distribution with support on the constrained space, which can result in major computational difficulties, we propose to map draws from an unconstrained posterior density using an isotonic regression transformation. This approach allows flat regions over which increases in the level of a predictor have no effect. Bayes factors for assessing ordered trends can be computed based on the output from a Gibbs sampling algorithm. Results from a simulation study are presented and the approach is applied to data from a time-to-pregnancy study.     

Recent progress in polymorphism-based population genetic inference

The recent availability of whole-genome sequencing data affords tremendous power for statistical inference. With this, there has been great interest in the development of polymorphism-based approaches for the estimation of population genetic parameters. These approaches seek to estimate, for example, recently fixed or sweeping beneficial mutations, the rate of recurrent positive selection, the distribution of selection coefficients, and the demographic history of the population. Yet despite estimating similar parameters using similar data sets, results between methodologies are far from consistent. We here summarize the current state of the field, compare existing approaches, and attempt to reconcile emerging discrepancies. We also discuss the biases in selection estimators introduced by ignoring the demographic history of the population, discuss the biases in demographic estimators introduced by assuming neutrality, and highlight the important challenge to the field of achieving a true joint estimation procedure to circumvent these confounding effects.     

Human population genetic structure and inference of group membership

A major goal of biomedical research is to develop the capability to provide highly personalized health care. To do so, it is necessary to understand the distribution of interindividual genetic variation at loci underlying physical characteristics, disease susceptibility, and response to treatment. Variation at these loci commonly exhibits geographic structuring and may contribute to phenotypic differences between groups. Thus, in some situations, it may be important to consider these groups separately. Membership in these groups is commonly inferred by use of a proxy such as place-of-origin or ethnic affiliation. These inferences are frequently weakened, however, by use of surrogates, such as skin color, for these proxies, the distribution of which bears little resemblance to the distribution of neutral genetic variation. Consequently, it has become increasingly controversial whether proxies are sufficient and accurate representations of groups inferred from neutral genetic variation. This raises three questions: how many data are required to identify population structure at a meaningful level of resolution, to what level can population structure be resolved, and do some proxies represent population structure accurately? We assayed 100 Alu insertion polymorphisms in a heterogeneous collection of approximately 565 individuals, approximately 200 of whom were also typed for 60 microsatellites. Stripped of identifying information, correct assignment to the continent of origin (Africa, Asia, or Europe) with a mean accuracy of at least 90% required a minimum of 60 Alu markers or microsatellites and reached 99%-100% when >/=100 loci were used. Less accurate assignment (87%) to the appropriate genetic cluster was possible for a historically admixed sample from southern India. These results set a minimum for the number of markers that must be tested to make strong inferences about detecting population structure among Old World populations under ideal experimental conditions. We note that, whereas some proxies correspond crudely, if at all, to population structure, the heuristic value of others is much higher. This suggests that a more flexible framework is needed for making inferences about population structure and the utility of proxies.     

Spectrum: joint Bayesian inference of population structure and recombination events

MOTIVATION: While genetic properties such as linkage disequilibrium (LD) and population structure are closely related under a common inheritance process, the statistical methodologies developed so far mostly deal with LD analysis and structural inference separately, using specialized models that do not capture their statistical and genetic relationships. Also, most of these approaches ignore the inherent uncertainty in the genetic complexity of the data and rely on inflexible models built on a closed genetic space. These limitations may make it difficult to infer detailed and consistent structural information from rich genomic data such as populational single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) profiles. RESULTS: We propose a new model-based approach to address these issues through joint inference of population structure and recombination events under a non-parametric Bayesian framework; we present Spectrum, an efficient implementation based on our new model. We validated Spectrum on simulated data and applied it to two real SNP datasets, including single-population Daly data and the four-population HapMap data. Our method performs well relative to LDhat 2.0 in estimating the recombination rates and hotspots on these datasets. More interestingly, it generates an ancestral spectrum for representing population structures which not only displays sub-structure based on population founders but also reveals details of the genetic diversity of each individual. It offers an alternative view of the population structures to that offered by Structure 2.1, which ignores chromosome-level mutation and recombination with respect to founders.     

Bayesian coalescent inference of past population dynamics from molecular sequences

We introduce the Bayesian skyline plot, a new method for estimating past population dynamics through time from a sample of molecular sequences without dependence on a prespecified parametric model of demographic history. We describe a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling procedure that efficiently samples a variant of the generalized skyline plot, given sequence data, and combines these plots to generate a posterior distribution of effective population size through time. We apply the Bayesian skyline plot to simulated data sets and show that it correctly reconstructs demographic history under canonical scenarios. Finally, we compare the Bayesian skyline plot model to previous coalescent approaches by analyzing two real data sets (hepatitis C virus in Egypt and mitochondrial DNA of Beringian bison) that have been previously investigated using alternative coalescent methods. In the bison analysis, we detect a severe but previously unrecognized bottleneck, estimated to have occurred 10,000 radiocarbon years ago, which coincides with both the earliest undisputed record of large numbers of humans in Alaska and the megafaunal extinctions in North America at the beginning of the Holocene.     

Bayesian inference of fine-scale recombination rates using population genomic data

Recently, several statistical methods for estimating fine-scale recombination rates using population samples have been developed. However, currently available methods that can be applied to large-scale data are limited to approximated likelihoods. Here, we developed a full-likelihood Markov chain Monte Carlo method for estimating recombination rate under a Bayesian framework. Genealogies underlying a sampling of chromosomes are effectively modelled by using marginal individual single nucleotide polymorphism genealogies related through an ancestral recombination graph. The method is compared with two existing composite-likelihood methods using simulated data.Simulation studies show that our method performs well for different simulation scenarios. The method is applied to two human population genetic variation datasets that have been studied by sperm typing. Our results are consistent with the estimates from sperm crossover analysis.     

Stopping-time resampling and population genetic inference under coalescent models

To extract full information from samples of DNA sequence data, it is necessary to use sophisticated model-based techniques such as importance sampling under the coalescent. However, these are limited in the size of datasets they can handle efficiently. Chen and Liu (2000) introduced the idea of stopping-time resampling and showed that it can dramatically improve the efficiency of importance sampling methods under a finite-alleles coalescent model. In this paper, a new framework is developed for designing stopping-time resampling schemes under more general models. It is implemented on data both from infinite sites and stepwise models of mutation, and extended to incorporate crossover recombination. A simulation study shows that this new framework offers a substantial improvement in the accuracy of likelihood estimation over a range of parameters, while a direct application of the scheme of Chen and Liu (2000) can actually diminish the estimate. The method imposes no additional computational burden and is robust to the choice of parameters.     

Genetic algorithms and parallel processing in maximum-likelihood phylogeny inference

We investigated the usefulness of a parallel genetic algorithm for phylogenetic inference under the maximum-likelihood (ML) optimality criterion. Parallelization was accomplished by assigning each "individual" in the genetic algorithm "population" to a separate processor so that the number of processors used was equal to the size of the evolving population (plus one additional processor for the control of operations). The genetic algorithm incorporated branch-length and topological mutation, recombination, selection on the ML score, and (in some cases) migration and recombination among subpopulations. We tested this parallel genetic algorithm with large (228 taxa) data sets of both empirically observed DNA sequence data (for angiosperms) as well as simulated DNA sequence data. For both observed and simulated data, search-time improvement was nearly linear with respect to the number of processors, so the parallelization strategy appears to be highly effective at improving computation time for large phylogenetic problems using the genetic algorithm. We also explored various ways of optimizing and tuning the parameters of the genetic algorithm. Under the conditions of our analyses, we did not find the best-known solution using the genetic algorithm approach before terminating each run. We discuss some possible limitations of the current implementation of this genetic algorithm as well as of avenues for its future improvement.     

Bayesian inference of biochemical kinetic parameters using the linear noise approximation

Background  

Fluorescent and luminescent gene reporters allow us to dynamically quantify changes in molecular species concentration over time on the single cell level. The mathematical modeling of their interaction through multivariate dynamical models requires the deveopment of effective statistical methods to calibrate such models against available data. Given the prevalence of stochasticity and noise in biochemical systems inference for stochastic models is of special interest. In this paper we present a simple and computationally efficient algorithm for the estimation of biochemical kinetic parameters from gene reporter data.     

pIPHULA--parallel inference of population parameters using a likelihood approach

pIPHULA is the parallel program to estimate the parameters of a realistic model of population growth.