全球温室气体排放概况

全球温室气体排放概况曹志平（中国农业大学资源与环境学院生态系,北京１０００９４）ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎｏｆＧｌｏｂａｌＥｍｉｓｓｉｏｎｓｏｆＧｒｅｅｎｈｏｕｓｅＧａｓ．ＣａｏＺｈｉｐｉｎｇ（ＣｏｌｅｇｅｏｆＲｅｓｏｕｒｃｅｓａｎｄＥｎｖｉｒｏｎｍ...     

Evaluating possible cap and trade legislation on cellulosic feedstock availability

An integrated, socioeconomic–biogeophysical model is used to analyze the interactions of cap‐and‐trade legislation and the Renewable Fuels Standard. Five alternative policy scenarios were considered with the purpose of identifying policies that act in a synergistic manner to reduce carbon emissions, increase economic returns to agriculture, and adequately meet ethanol mandates. We conclude that climate and energy policies can best be implemented together by offering carbon offset payments to conservation tillage, herbaceous grasses for biomass, and by constraining crop residue removal for ethanol feedstocks to carbon neutral level. When comparing this scenario to the Baseline scenario, the agricultural sector realizes an economic benefit of US$156 billion by 2030 and emissions are reduced by 135 Tg C‐equivalent (Eq) yr^?1. Results also indicate that geographic location of cellulosic feedstocks could shift significantly depending on the final policies implemented in cap and trade legislation. Placement of cellulosic ethanol facilities should consider these possible shifts when determining site location.     

白色生物技术在可持续大规模化学生产中的应用

目前几乎所有有机化学品和塑料是从原油和天然气中生产的, 而生物技术的应用使得利用可再生资源进行大规模化工生产成为可能。以下主要综述了白色生物技术, 即利用细菌、酵母或酶将可发酵糖转化为特定的化学产品的技术。白色生物技术极大节省了不可再生能源的消耗, 减少了温室气体的排放。在有利条件下, 如果化工生产中相关技术有了发展并且可以成功以木质纤维素为原料, 那么到2050年不可再生能源的消耗将减少将近2/3 (67%)。欧洲（EU-25）地区的分析表明, 白色生物技术相关的用地在未来几年的欧洲不会受到制约, 尤其是有大量闲置资源的东欧。另外, 虽然原则上可以在白色生物技术中使用自然的细菌和酶, 但是很多专家认为, 利用经遗传改造生物体(GMO)可以达到高产量、高浓度、高效率, 这对实现经济活力是必要的。值得注意的是, 目前并不是所有的重组基因和其他物种间的相互作用所带来的后果都可预见, 因此化工生产释放的GMOs的安全失活和处理非常重要, 但是如果采取足够的预防措施, 在白色生物技术中应用GMOs的风险是可以控制的。我们认为, 生物生产过程的技术突破、下游生产过程的控制、化石燃料的高价格、可发酵糖的低价获得是生物质化学产业发展中的关键因素, 这4个因素及其他伴随策略是发展整体白色生物技术的要求。     

Impact of Power Generation Mix on Life Cycle Assessment and Carbon Footprint Greenhouse Gas Results

The mix of electricity consumed in any stage in the life cycle of a product, process, or industrial sector has a significant effect on the associated inventory of emissions and environmental impacts because of large differences in the power generation method used. Fossil‐fuel‐fired or nuclear‐centralized steam generators; large‐scale and small‐scale hydroelectric power; and renewable options, such as geothermal, wind, and solar power, each have a unique set of issues that can change the results of a life cycle assessment. This article shows greenhouse gas emissions estimates for electricity purchase for different scenarios using U.S. average electricity mix, state mixes, state mixes including imports, and a sector‐specific mix to show how different these results can be. We find that greenhouse gases for certain sectors and scenarios can change by more than 100%. Knowing this, practitioners should exercise caution or at least account for the uncertainty associated with mix choice.     

Hour‐by‐Hour Analysis for Increased Accuracy of Greenhouse Gas Emissions for a Low‐Energy Condominium Design

The seasonal and hourly variation of electricity grid emissions and building operational energy use are generally not accounted for in carbon footprint analyses of buildings. This work presents a technique for and results of such an analysis and quantifies the errors that can be encountered when these variations are not appropriately addressed. The study consists of an hour‐by‐hour analysis of the energy used by four different variations of a five‐story condominium building, with a gross floor area of approximately 9,290 square meters (m²), planned for construction in Markham, Ontario, Canada. The results of the case studied indicate that failure to account for variation can, for example, cause a 4% error in the carbon footprint of a building where ground source heat pumps are used and a 6% and 8% error in accounting for the carbon savings of wind and photovoltaic systems, respectively. After the building envelope was enhanced and sources of alternative energy were incorporated, the embodied greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were more than 50% of the building's operational emissions. This work illustrates the importance of short‐time‐scale GHG analysis for buildings.     

Energy and the food system

Modern agriculture is heavily dependent on fossil resources. Both direct energy use for crop management and indirect energy use for fertilizers, pesticides and machinery production have contributed to the major increases in food production seen since the 1960s. However, the relationship between energy inputs and yields is not linear. Low-energy inputs can lead to lower yields and perversely to higher energy demands per tonne of harvested product. At the other extreme, increasing energy inputs can lead to ever-smaller yield gains. Although fossil fuels remain the dominant source of energy for agriculture, the mix of fuels used differs owing to the different fertilization and cultivation requirements of individual crops. Nitrogen fertilizer production uses large amounts of natural gas and some coal, and can account for more than 50 per cent of total energy use in commercial agriculture. Oil accounts for between 30 and 75 per cent of energy inputs of UK agriculture, depending on the cropping system. While agriculture remains dependent on fossil sources of energy, food prices will couple to fossil energy prices and food production will remain a significant contributor to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Technological developments, changes in crop management, and renewable energy will all play important roles in increasing the energy efficiency of agriculture and reducing its reliance of fossil resources.     

The potential of Miscanthus to sequester carbon in soils: comparing field measurements in Carlow,Ireland to model predictions

Growing bioenergy crops such as Miscanthus has the potential to mitigate atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions by the replacement of fossil fuels and by storing carbon (C) in the soil due to land use change. Here we compare direct measurements of soil organic C fractions made in Carlow (Ireland) to model predictions made by RothC and a cohort model. Our results show that when Miscanthus is grown on land previously under arable agriculture, the soil organic C will increase to a level above that of native pasture, as Miscanthus organic material is shown to have a slow decomposition rate. In addition we demonstrate that for measured organic C, fractions of different lability are similar to the C pools used in RothC. Using the model predictions from RothC and Miscanthus yields from MISCANFOR, we predict that in Ireland, changing the land use from arable to Miscanthus plantations has the potential to store between 2 and 3 Mg C ha^?1 y^?1 depending on the crop yield and the initial soil organic C level.     

草原畜牧业温室气体排放现状、问题及展望

草原畜牧业生产系统是一个涉及环境、经济、社会多层面、且系统内部气候-土壤-草地-家畜-管理之间相互作用的复杂的社会生态系统。草原不仅为人类提供所需要的肉奶,也提供了多种生态系统服务。然而,草原畜牧业也是主要的温室气体排放源之一。减缓畜牧业温室气体排放的研究已成为当前气候变化科学研究关注的焦点。综述了国内外草原畜牧业温室气体排放研究现状,指出现有研究的不足主要集中在以下3个方面：（1）虽然生命周期评价方法广泛应用于草原畜牧业温室气体排放研究,但是存在诸多问题,导致目前的研究框架体系尚不完善,特别体现在以下几方面：是否考虑外部输入、是否考虑土壤有机碳、畜牧业温室气体排放强度指标的选择等;（2）缺乏单一环节减缓措施对草原畜牧业整体温室气体减排效果的研究;（3）目前对影响草原畜牧业温室气体排放强度的因素主要集中在生态系统层面的分析,忽略了社会系统的作用,无法反映社会系统与生态系统的相互反馈机制,导致机制阐释不完善。综上所述,未来仍需从以下三方面开展研究：（1）完善草原畜牧业研究框架体系及提升研究方法;（2）加强对单一环节减缓措施对草原畜牧业温室气体整体减排效果的综合评价;（3）基于社会生态系统的角度深入研究影响草原畜牧业温室气体排放强度差异的机制。一方面,这有助于深入理解草原畜牧业温室气体排放强度情况,也为低碳型草原畜牧业发展政策的制定提供思路借鉴;另一方面对于科学合理的可持续利用草场和恢复草地生态环境均具有重要意义。     

Extended Life Cycle Assessment of Southern Pink Shrimp Products Originating in Senegalese Artisanal and Industrial Fisheries for Export to Europe

Southern pink shrimp (Penaeus notialis) are an important Senegalese export commodity. Artisanal fisheries in rivers produce 60%. Forty percent are landed in trawl fisheries at sea. The shrimp from both fisheries result in a frozen, consumer‐packed product that is exported to Europe. We applied attributional life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare the environmental impact of the two supply chains and identify improvement options. In addition to standard LCA impact categories, biological impacts of each fishery were quantified with regard to landed by‐catch, discard, seafloor impact, and size of target catch. Results for typical LCA categories include that artisanal fisheries have much lower inputs and emissions in the fishing phase than does the industrial fishery. For the product from artisanal fisheries, the main part of the impact in the standard LCA categories occurs during processing on land, mainly due to the use of heavy fuel oil and refrigerants with high global warming and ozone depletion potentials. From a biological point of view, each fishery has advantages and drawbacks, and a number of improvement options were identified. If developing countries can ensure biological sustainability of their fisheries and design the chain on land in a resource‐efficient way, long distance to markets is not an obstacle to sustainable trading of seafood products originating in artisanal fisheries.     

Future energy potential of Miscanthus in Europe

European field experiments have demonstrated Miscanthus can produce some of the highest energy yields per hectare of all potential energy crops. Previous modelling studies using MISCANMOD have calculated the potential energy yield for the EU27 from mean historical climate data (1960–1990). In this paper, we have built on the previous studies by further developing a new Miscanthus crop growth model MISCANFOR in order to analyse (i) interannual variation in yields for past and future climates, (ii) genotype-specific parameters on yield in Europe. Under recent climatic conditions (1960–1990) we show that 10% of arable land could produce 1709 PJ and mitigate 30 Tg of carbon dioxide-carbon (CO₂-C) equivalent greenhouse gasses (GHGs) compared with EU27 primary energy consumption of 65 598 PJ, emitting 1048 Tg of CO₂-C equivalent GHGs in 2005. If we continue to use the clone Miscanthus × giganteus , MISCANFOR shows that, as climate change reduces in-season water availability, energy production and carbon mitigation could fall 80% by 2080 for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 scenario. However, because Miscanthus is found in a huge range of climates in Asia, we propose that new hybrids will incorporate genes conferring superior drought and frost tolerance. Using parameters from characterized germplasm, we calculate energy production could increase from present levels by 88% (to 2360 PJ) and mitigate 42 Tg of CO₂-C equivalent using 10% arable land for the 2080 mid-range A2 scenario. This is equivalent to 3.6% of 2005 EU27 primary energy consumption and 4.0% of total CO₂ equivalent C GHG emissions.     

黄淮海玉米生产能源利用效率和净生态系统碳平衡时空特征

黄淮海地区是我国重要的玉米产区之一,定量化该区域玉米生产的能源利用效率和净生态系统碳平衡对提高资源利用效率和实现碳中和具有重要意义。基于国家统计数据,利用生命周期评价(LCA)、能值分析和碳平衡等方法,定量化了2004-2018年黄淮海地区(包括河北、河南、山东、安徽和江苏5个省)玉米生产的能源利用效率和净生态系统碳平衡,并阐明其时空变化特征。结果表明:黄淮海地区玉米生产的平均能源利用效率、温室气体排放量、净生态系统碳平衡和可持续性指数分别为3.9、3.8 t CO₂-eq/hm²、12.6 t C/hm²和6.8。不同年份间黄淮海地区玉米生产的能源利用效率和净生态系统碳平衡存在显著差异,能源利用效率在2012年最高,为4.3,在2005和2007年最低,为3.7;净生态系统碳平衡在2015年最高,为14.2 t C/hm²,在2005年最低,为10.1 t C/hm²。各省份中以河北省玉米生产的能源利用效率、净生态系统碳平衡和可持续性指数最高,分别高于区域平均15.3%、9.6%和26.4%,较最低的江苏省高45.5%、22.0%和88.8%。河北省、河南省和山东省的综合得分均为正值,具有较高的资源利用效率和生态环境效益。黄淮海地区玉米生产资源投入、能源利用效率、生态环境效益和净生态系统碳平衡在时空尺度上存在较大的差异,应制定区域特异性优化管理策略,减少化肥和农药的施用,施用增效肥料和高效生物农药等,采用秸秆还田等保护性耕作措施,积极推进规模化和机械化的发展,实现黄淮海地区玉米生产的绿色可持续发展。