Robust Linear Mixed Models with Normal/Independent Distributions and Bayesian MCMC Implementation

Linear mixed effects models have been widely used in analysis of data where responses are clustered around some random effects, so it is not reasonable to assume independence between observations in the same cluster. In most biological applications, it is assumed that the distributions of the random effects and of the residuals are Gaussian. This makes inferences vulnerable to the presence of outliers. Here, linear mixed effects models with normal/independent residual distributions for robust inferences are described. Specific distributions examined include univariate and multivariate versions of the Student‐ t, the slash and the contaminated normal. A Bayesian framework is adopted and Markov chain Monte Carlo is used to carry out the posterior analysis. The procedures are illustrated using birth weight data on rats in a toxicological experiment. Results from the Gaussian and robust models are contrasted, and it is shown how the implementation can be used for outlier detection. The thick‐tailed distributions provide an appealing robust alternative to the Gaussian process in linear mixed models, and they are easily implemented using data augmentation and MCMC techniques.     

Generalized linear latent variable models for repeated measures of spatially correlated multivariate data

Observations of multiple-response variables across space and over time occur often in environmental and ecological studies. Compared to purely spatial models for a single response variable in the exponential family of distributions, fewer statistical tools are available for multiple-response variables that are not necessarily Gaussian. An exception is a common-factor model developed for multivariate spatial data by Wang and Wall (2003, Biostatistics 4, 569-582). The purpose of this article is to extend this multivariate space-only model and develop a flexible class of generalized linear latent variable models for multivariate spatial-temporal data. For statistical inference, maximum likelihood estimates and their standard deviations are obtained using a Monte Carlo EM algorithm. We also use a novel way to automatically adjust the Monte Carlo sample size, which facilitates the convergence of the Monte Carlo EM algorithm. The methodology is illustrated by an ecological study of red pine trees in response to bark beetle challenges in a forest stand of Wisconsin.     

Monte Carlo sampling can be used to determine the size and shape of the steady-state flux space

Constraint-based modeling results in a convex polytope that defines a solution space containing all possible steady-state flux distributions. The properties of this polytope have been studied extensively using linear programming to find the optimal flux distribution under various optimality conditions and convex analysis to define its extreme pathways (edges) and elementary modes. The work presented herein further studies the steady-state flux space by defining its hyper-volume. In low dimensions (i.e. for small sample networks), exact volume calculation algorithms were used. However, due to the #P-hard nature of the vertex enumeration and volume calculation problem in high dimensions, random Monte Carlo sampling was used to characterize the relative size of the solution space of the human red blood cell metabolic network. Distributions of the steady-state flux levels for each reaction in the metabolic network were generated to show the range of flux values for each reaction in the polytope. These results give insight into the shape of the high-dimensional solution space. The value of measuring uptake and secretion rates in shrinking the steady-state flux solution space is illustrated through singular value decomposition of the randomly sampled points. The V(max) of various reactions in the network are varied to determine the sensitivity of the solution space to the maximum capacity constraints. The methods developed in this study are suitable for testing the implication of additional constraints on a metabolic network system and can be used to explore the effects of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on network capabilities.     

Skew‐normal/independent linear mixed models for censored responses with applications to HIV viral loads

Often in biomedical studies, the routine use of linear mixed‐effects models (based on Gaussian assumptions) can be questionable when the longitudinal responses are skewed in nature. Skew‐normal/elliptical models are widely used in those situations. Often, those skewed responses might also be subjected to some upper and lower quantification limits (QLs; viz., longitudinal viral‐load measures in HIV studies), beyond which they are not measurable. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian analysis of censored linear mixed models replacing the Gaussian assumptions with skew‐normal/independent (SNI) distributions. The SNI is an attractive class of asymmetric heavy‐tailed distributions that includes the skew‐normal, skew‐t, skew‐slash, and skew‐contaminated normal distributions as special cases. The proposed model provides flexibility in capturing the effects of skewness and heavy tail for responses that are either left‐ or right‐censored. For our analysis, we adopt a Bayesian framework and develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to carry out the posterior analyses. The marginal likelihood is tractable, and utilized to compute not only some Bayesian model selection measures but also case‐deletion influence diagnostics based on the Kullback–Leibler divergence. The newly developed procedures are illustrated with a simulation study as well as an HIV case study involving analysis of longitudinal viral loads.     

Quantification of intracellular metabolic fluxes from fractional enrichment and 13C-13C coupling constraints on the isotopomer distribution in labeled biomass components

A method for the quantification of intracellular metabolic flux distributions from steady-state mass balance constraints and from the constraints posed by the measured 13C labeling state of biomass components is presented. Two-dimensional NMR spectroscopy is used to analyze the labeling state of cell protein hydrolysate and cell wall components. No separation of the biomass hydrolysate is required to measure the degree of 13C-13C coupling and the fractional 13C enrichment in various carbon atom positions. A mixture of [1-13C]glucose and uniformly labeled [13C6]glucose is applied to make fractional 13C enrichment data and measurements of the degree of 13C-13C coupling informative with respect to the intracellular flux distribution. Simulation models that calculate the complete isotopomer distribution in biomass components on the basis of isotopomer mapping matrices are used for the estimation of intracellular fluxes by least-squares minimization. The statistical quality of the estimated intracellular flux distributions is assessed by Monte Carlo methods. Principal component analysis is performed on the outcome of the Monte Carlo procedure to identify groups of fluxes that contribute major parts to the total variance in the multiple flux estimations. The methods described are applied to a steady-state culture of a glucoamylase-producing recombinant Aspergillus niger strain.     

An estimation method for the semiparametric mixed effects model

A semiparametric mixed effects regression model is proposed for the analysis of clustered or longitudinal data with continuous, ordinal, or binary outcome. The common assumption of Gaussian random effects is relaxed by using a predictive recursion method (Newton and Zhang, 1999) to provide a nonparametric smooth density estimate. A new strategy is introduced to accelerate the algorithm. Parameter estimates are obtained by maximizing the marginal profile likelihood by Powell's conjugate direction search method. Monte Carlo results are presented to show that the method can improve the mean squared error of the fixed effects estimators when the random effects distribution is not Gaussian. The usefulness of visualizing the random effects density itself is illustrated in the analysis of data from the Wisconsin Sleep Survey. The proposed estimation procedure is computationally feasible for quite large data sets.     

Uniform sampling of steady-state flux spaces: means to design experiments and to interpret enzymopathies

Reconstruction of genome-scale metabolic networks is now possible using multiple different data types. Constraint-based modeling is an approach to interrogate capabilities of reconstructed networks by constraining possible cellular behavior through the imposition of physicochemical laws. As a result, a steady-state flux space is defined that contains all possible functional states of the network. Uniform random sampling of the steady-state flux space allows for the unbiased appraisal of its contents. Monte Carlo sampling of the steady-state flux space of the reconstructed human red blood cell metabolic network under simulated physiologic conditions yielded the following key results: 1), probability distributions for the values of individual metabolic fluxes showed a wide variety of shapes that could not have been inferred without computation; 2), pairwise correlation coefficients were calculated between all fluxes, determining the level of independence between the measurement of any two fluxes, and identifying highly correlated reaction sets; and 3), the network-wide effects of the change in one (or a few) variables (i.e., a simulated enzymopathy or fixing a flux range based on measurements) were computed. Mathematical models provide the most compact and informative representation of a hypothesis of how a cell works. Thus, understanding model predictions clearly is vital to driving forward the iterative model-building procedure that is at the heart of systems biology. Taken together, the Monte Carlo sampling procedure provides a broadening of the constraint-based approach by allowing for the unbiased and detailed assessment of the impact of the applied physicochemical constraints on a reconstructed network.     

Monte carlo studies of plant mating system estimation models: the one-pollen parent and mixed mating models

Estimation of mating system parameters in plant populations typically employs family-structured samples of progeny genotypes. These estimation models postulate a mixture of self-fertilization and random outcrossing. One assumption of such models concerns the distribution of pollen genotypes among eggs within single maternal families. Previous applications of the mixed mating model to mating system estimation have assumed that pollen genotypes are sampled randomly from the total population in forming outcrossed progeny within families. In contrast, the one-pollen parent model assumes that outcrossed progeny within a family share a single-pollen parent genotype. Monte Carlo simulations of family-structured sampling were carried out to examine the consequences of violations of the different assumptions of the two models regarding the distribution of pollen genotypes among eggs. When these assumptions are violated, estimates of mating system parameters may be significantly different from their true values and may exhibit distributions which depart from normality. Monte Carlo methods were also used to examine the utility of the bootstrap resampling algorithm for estimating the variances of mating system parameters. The bootstrap method gives variance estimates that approximate empirically determined values. When applied to data from two plant populations which differ in pollen genotype distributions within families, the two estimation procedures exhibit the same behavior as that seen with the simulated data.     

Defective regression models for cure rate modeling with interval‐censored data

Regression models in survival analysis are most commonly applied for right‐censored survival data. In some situations, the time to the event is not exactly observed, although it is known that the event occurred between two observed times. In practice, the moment of observation is frequently taken as the event occurrence time, and the interval‐censored mechanism is ignored. We present a cure rate defective model for interval‐censored event‐time data. The defective distribution is characterized by a density function whose integration assumes a value less than one when the parameter domain differs from the usual domain. We use the Gompertz and inverse Gaussian defective distributions to model data containing cured elements and estimate parameters using the maximum likelihood estimation procedure. We evaluate the performance of the proposed models using Monte Carlo simulation studies. Practical relevance of the models is illustrated by applying datasets on ovarian cancer recurrence and oral lesions in children after liver transplantation, both of which were derived from studies performed at A.C. Camargo Cancer Center in São Paulo, Brazil.     

Combining pathway analysis with flux balance analysis for the comprehensive study of metabolic systems

The elucidation of organism-scale metabolic networks necessitates the development of integrative methods to analyze and interpret the systemic properties of cellular metabolism. A shift in emphasis from single metabolic reactions to systemically defined pathways is one consequence of such an integrative analysis of metabolic systems. The constraints of systemic stoichiometry, and limited thermodynamics have led to the definition of the flux space within the context of convex analysis. The flux space of the metabolic system, containing all allowable flux distributions, is constrained to a convex polyhedral cone in a high-dimensional space. From metabolic pathway analysis, the edges of the high-dimensional flux cone are vectors that correspond to systemically defined "extreme pathways" spanning the capabilities of the system. The addition of maximum flux capacities of individual metabolic reactions serves to further constrain the flux space and has led to the development of flux balance analysis using linear optimization to calculate optimal flux distributions. Here we provide the precise theoretical connections between pathway analysis and flux balance analysis allowing for their combined application to study integrated metabolic function. Shifts in metabolic behavior are calculated using linear optimization and are then interpreted using the extreme pathways to demonstrate the concept of pathway utilization. Changes to the reaction network, such as the removal of a reaction, can lead to the generation of suboptimal phenotypes that can be directly attributed to the loss of pathway function and capabilities. Optimal growth phenotypes are calculated as a function of environmental variables, such as the availability of substrate and oxygen, leading to the definition of phenotypic phase planes. It is illustrated how optimality properties of the computed flux distributions can be interpreted in terms of the extreme pathways. Together these developments are applied to an example network and to core metabolism of Escherichia coli demonstrating the connections between the extreme pathways, optimal flux distributions, and phenotypic phase planes. The consequences of changing environmental and internal conditions of the network are examined for growth on glucose and succinate in the face of a variety of gene deletions. The convergence of the calculation of optimal phenotypes through linear programming and the definition of extreme pathways establishes a different perspective for the understanding of how a defined metabolic network is best used under different environmental and internal conditions or, in other words, a pathway basis for the interpretation of the metabolic reaction norm.     

Stochastic functional data analysis: a diffusion model-based approach

This article presents a new modeling strategy in functional data analysis. We consider the problem of estimating an unknown smooth function given functional data with noise. The unknown function is treated as the realization of a stochastic process, which is incorporated into a diffusion model. The method of smoothing spline estimation is connected to a special case of this approach. The resulting models offer great flexibility to capture the dynamic features of functional data, and allow straightforward and meaningful interpretation. The likelihood of the models is derived with Euler approximation and data augmentation. A unified Bayesian inference method is carried out via a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm including a simulation smoother. The proposed models and methods are illustrated on some prostate-specific antigen data, where we also show how the models can be used for forecasting.     

Use of randomized sampling for analysis of metabolic networks

Genome-scale metabolic network reconstructions in microorganisms have been formulated and studied for about 8 years. The constraint-based approach has shown great promise in analyzing the systemic properties of these network reconstructions. Notably, constraint-based models have been used successfully to predict the phenotypic effects of knock-outs and for metabolic engineering. The inherent uncertainty in both parameters and variables of large-scale models is significant and is well suited to study by Monte Carlo sampling of the solution space. These techniques have been applied extensively to the reaction rate (flux) space of networks, with more recent work focusing on dynamic/kinetic properties. Monte Carlo sampling as an analysis tool has many advantages, including the ability to work with missing data, the ability to apply post-processing techniques, and the ability to quantify uncertainty and to optimize experiments to reduce uncertainty. We present an overview of this emerging area of research in systems biology.     

Inference on fractal processes using multiresolution approximation

We consider Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlofor a variety of fractal Gaussian processes on the real line.These models have unknown parameters in the covariance matrix,requiring inversion of a new covariance matrix at each Markovchain Monte Carlo iteration. The processes have no suitableindependence properties so this becomes computationally prohibitive.We surmount these difficulties by developing a computationalalgorithm for likelihood evaluation based on a ‘multiresolutionapproximation’ to the original process. The method iscomputationally very efficient and widely applicable, makinglikelihood-based inference feasible for large datasets. A simulationstudy indicates that this approach leads to accurate estimatesfor underlying parameters in fractal models, including fractionalBrownian motion and fractional Gaussian noise, and functionalparameters in the recently introduced multifractional Brownianmotion. We apply the method to a variety of real datasets andillustrate its application to prediction and to model selection.     

Parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo - bridging the gap to high-performance Bayesian computation in animal breeding and genetics

Background

Most Bayesian models for the analysis of complex traits are not analytically tractable and inferences are based on computationally intensive techniques. This is true of Bayesian models for genome-enabled selection, which uses whole-genome molecular data to predict the genetic merit of candidate animals for breeding purposes. In this regard, parallel computing can overcome the bottlenecks that can arise from series computing. Hence, a major goal of the present study is to bridge the gap to high-performance Bayesian computation in the context of animal breeding and genetics.

Results

Parallel Monte Carlo Markov chain algorithms and strategies are described in the context of animal breeding and genetics. Parallel Monte Carlo algorithms are introduced as a starting point including their applications to computing single-parameter and certain multiple-parameter models. Then, two basic approaches for parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo are described: one aims at parallelization within a single chain; the other is based on running multiple chains, yet some variants are discussed as well. Features and strategies of the parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo are illustrated using real data, including a large beef cattle dataset with 50K SNP genotypes.

Conclusions

Parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are useful for computing complex Bayesian models, which does not only lead to a dramatic speedup in computing but can also be used to optimize model parameters in complex Bayesian models. Hence, we anticipate that use of parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo will have a profound impact on revolutionizing the computational tools for genomic selection programs.     

系统生物学中的数学模型方法及其应用

综述了当前在系统生物学研究领域中常用数学模型的建立和研究方法,介绍了通量平衡分析、基元通量模式、生化系统理论,以及代谢控制分析等模型的理论基础和发展背景,讨论了这些模型之间的联系、区别,以及适用范围,并总结了这些模型在分析代谢网络结构、优化代谢途径、指导菌种改进以提高琥珀酸、色氨酸、乙醇等重要化工品生产率和转化率中的实际应用。     

Recent developments for making gastric evacuation and daily ration determinations

Synopsis Gastric evacuation rate estimates often suffer from an important bias caused by fitting experimentally-derived data distributions that are inherently constricted by the X-axis (Y = 0). Monte Carlo simulations were used to evaluate the bias. Truncating constricted distributions prior to curve fitting was suggested as a means to circumvent the problem. A food consumption model developed by D.S. Robson was presented. It employs the integral of the function fit to percentage gastric evacuation data, and does not require an a priori assumption of exponential gastric evacuation. The methods were illustrated using experimental gastric evacuation data and stomach contents data for fishery-caught yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares.     

Checking semiparametric transformation models with censored data

Semiparametric transformation models provide a very general framework for studying the effects of (possibly time-dependent) covariates on survival time and recurrent event times. Assessing the adequacy of these models is an important task because model misspecification affects the validity of inference and the accuracy of prediction. In this paper, we introduce appropriate time-dependent residuals for these models and consider the cumulative sums of the residuals. Under the assumed model, the cumulative sum processes converge weakly to zero-mean Gaussian processes whose distributions can be approximated through Monte Carlo simulation. These results enable one to assess, both graphically and numerically, how unusual the observed residual patterns are in reference to their null distributions. The residual patterns can also be used to determine the nature of model misspecification. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed methods perform well in practical situations. Three medical studies are provided for illustrations.     

Multiple-source models for electron beams of a medical linear accelerator using BEAMDP computer code

AimThe aim of this work was to develop multiple-source models for electron beams of the NEPTUN 10PC medical linear accelerator using the BEAMDP computer code.BackgroundOne of the most accurate techniques of radiotherapy dose calculation is the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation of radiation transport, which requires detailed information of the beam in the form of a phase-space file. The computing time required to simulate the beam data and obtain phase-space files from a clinical accelerator is significant. Calculation of dose distributions using multiple-source models is an alternative method to phase-space data as direct input to the dose calculation system.Materials and methodsMonte Carlo simulation of accelerator head was done in which a record was kept of the particle phase-space regarding the details of the particle history. Multiple-source models were built from the phase-space files of Monte Carlo simulations. These simplified beam models were used to generate Monte Carlo dose calculations and to compare those calculations with phase-space data for electron beams.ResultsComparison of the measured and calculated dose distributions using the phase-space files and multiple-source models for three electron beam energies showed that the measured and calculated values match well each other throughout the curves.ConclusionIt was found that dose distributions calculated using both the multiple-source models and the phase-space data agree within 1.3%, demonstrating that the models can be used for dosimetry research purposes and dose calculations in radiotherapy.     

Nonparametric analysis of covariance for comparing change in randomized studies with baseline values subject to error

Change from baseline to a follow-up examination can be compared among two or more randomly assigned treatment groups by using analysis of variance on the change scores. However, a generally more sensitive (powerful) test can be performed using analysis of covariance (ANOVA) on the follow-up data with the baseline data as a covariate. This approach is not without potential problems, though. The assumption of ordinary ANCOVA of normally distributed errors is speculative for many variables employed in biomedical research. Furthermore, the baseline values are inevitably random variables and often are measured with error. This report investigates, in this situation, the validity and relative power of the ordinary ANCOVA test and two asymptotically distribution-free alternative tests, one based on the rank transformation and the other based on the normal scores transformation. The procedures are illustrated with data from a clinical trial. Normal and several nonnormal distributions, as well as varying degree of variable error, are studied by Monte Carlo methods. The normal scores test is generally recommended for statistical practice.     

FluxAnalyzer: exploring structure,pathways, and flux distributions in metabolic networks on interactive flux maps

MOTIVATION: The analysis of structure, pathways and flux distributions in metabolic networks has become an important approach for understanding the functionality of metabolic systems. The need of a user-friendly platform for stoichiometric modeling of metabolic networks in silico is evident. RESULTS: The FluxAnalyzer is a package for MATLAB and facilitates integrated pathway and flux analysis for metabolic networks within a graphical user interface. Arbitrary metabolic network models can be composed by instances of four types of network elements. The abstract network model is linked with network graphics leading to interactive flux maps which allow for user input and display of calculation results within a network visualization. Therein, a large and powerful collection of tools and algorithms can be applied interactively including metabolic flux analysis, flux optimization, detection of topological features and pathway analysis by elementary flux modes or extreme pathways. The FluxAnalyzer has been applied and tested for complex networks with more than 500,000 elementary modes. Some aspects of the combinatorial complexity of pathway analysis in metabolic networks are discussed. AVAILABILITY: Upon request from the corresponding author. Free for academic users (license agreement). Special contracts are available for industrial corporations. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: http://www.mpi-magdeburg.mpg.de/projects/fluxanalyzer.