Fish communities on the world's warmest reefs: what can they tell us about the effects of climate change in the future?

To examine the role of climatic extremes in structuring reef fish communities in the Arabian region, reef fish communities were visually surveyed at four sites within the southern Persian Gulf (also known as the Arabian Gulf and The Gulf), where sea-surface temperatures are extreme (range: 12-35° C annually), and these were compared with communities at four latitudinally similar sites in the biogeographically connected Gulf of Oman, where conditions are more moderate (range: 22-31° C annually). Although sites were relatively similar in the cover and composition of coral communities, substantial differences in the structure and composition of associated fish assemblages were apparent. Fish assemblages in the southern Persian Gulf held significantly lower estimates of abundance, richness and biomass, with significantly higher abundances of smaller sized individuals than Gulf of Oman assemblages. Functionally, southern Persian Gulf sites held significantly lower abundances of nearly all the common fish trophic guilds found on Gulf of Oman sites, although higher abundances of herbivorous grazers were apparent. These results suggest the potential for substantial changes in the structure of reef-associated fish communities, independent of changes in habitat within an environment of increasing fluctuations in oceanic climate.     

Contrasting effects of hemiparasites on ecosystem processes: can positive litter effects offset the negative effects of parasitism?

Hemiparasites are known to influence community structure and ecosystem functioning, but the underlying mechanisms are not well studied. Variation in the impacts of hemiparasites on diversity and production could be due to the difference in the relative strength of two interacting pathways: direct negative effects of parasitism and positive effects on N availability via litter. Strong effects of parasitism should result in substantial changes in diversity and declines in productivity. Conversely, strong litter effects should result in minor changes in diversity and increased productivity. We conducted field-based surveys to determine the association of Castilleja occidentalis with diversity and productivity in the alpine tundra. To examine litter effects, we compared the decomposition of Castilleja litter with litter of four other abundant plant species, and examined the decomposition of those four species when mixed with Castilleja. Castilleja was associated with minor changes in diversity but almost a twofold increase in productivity and greater foliar N in co-occurring species. Our decomposition trials suggest litter effects are due to both the rapid N loss of Castilleja litter and the effects of mixing Castilleja litter with co-occurring species. Castilleja produces litter that accelerates decomposition in the alpine tundra, which could accelerate the slow N cycle and boost productivity. We speculate that these positive effects of litter outweigh the effects of parasitism in nutrient-poor systems with long-lived hemiparasites. Determining the relative importance of parasitism and litter effects of this functional group is crucial to understand the strong but variable roles hemiparasites play in affecting community structure and ecosystem processes.     

Environmental variability and fisheries: what can models do?

This review is based on 58 climate-fisheries models published over the last 28 years that describe the impacts of fishery pressure and environmental variability on populations and ecosystems and include basic principles of population dynamics. It points out that the incorporation of environmental factors in fishery models has already been done and is of great importance for future models used in the assessment of marine resources. The work is guided by the questions to what extent have these models a) enhanced our understanding of the interrelationships between the environment, the fishery and the state of the exploited resources and b) helped to improve the prediction of population dynamics and the assessment of marine resources. For each of the six most commonly used model categories a case study is critically analyzed. The problems of “breaking relationships” between environmental factors and the biological response used in models, the trade-off between model complexity (realism) and simplicity (data availability) and the potential of multivariate climate indices for forecasting ecosystem states and for use as proxies for combined models are discussed, as are novel non-linear and spatially explicit modeling approaches. Approaches differ in terms of model complexity, use of linear or non-linear equations, number of parameters, forecast time horizon and type of resource modelled. A majority of the models were constructed for fish and invertebrate stocks of the northeast Pacific and the epicontinental seas of the Atlantic, reflecting the advancement of fisheries science in these regions. New, in parts highly complex models and sophisticated approaches were identified. The reviewed studies demonstrate that the performance of fished stocks can better be described if environmental or climatic variability is incorporated into the fisheries models. We conclude that due to the already available knowledge, the greatly enhanced computer power, new methods and recent findings of large-scale climatic/oceanographic cycles, fisheries modeling should progress greatly in the coming years.     

Effects of road salts on the composition of seasonal pond communities: can the use of road salts enhance mosquito recruitment?

Road deicing agents can enter nearby wetlands and alter the composition of aquatic communities by directly eliminating salt-intolerant species and modifying ecological interactions between tolerant species. We conducted field experiments to examine the sensitivity of taxa that inhabit seasonal wetlands and to determine whether salt contamination could increase the production of ovipositing insects. In two outdoor mesocosm experiments, cladocerans and copepods rarely survived concentrations of commercial road salt >1,200 mg L⁻¹, while wood frog eggs and hatchlings (Lithobates sylvaticus) were not strongly impacted until concentrations exceeded 4,500 mg L⁻¹. Shore flies (Ephydridae), mosquitoes (Culex restuans; Anopheles punctipennis) and midge larvae (Chironomidae) were more salt tolerant than macrozooplankton. These taxa tended to be absent or relatively rare in experimental mesocosms with low salinities, but abundant in mesocosms with intermediate to high salinities. We conducted two additional experiments to examine whether adult choice of oviposition sites may in part explain the rarity of Cx. restuans in pools with low salinity. These revealed that Cx. restuans reduced oviposition rates in water-filled containers with cladocerans, and reduced clutch size in the presence of Lithobates larvae. However, salt concentration per se did not influence the propensity of Cx. restuans to oviposit. Collectively, our results suggest that aquatic habitats that are biologically compromised by deicing agents favor salt-tolerant insects, and that the use of road salts could increase the production of adult mosquitoes that are pests and vectors of disease.     

Vital erythrocyte phenomena: what can theory,modeling, and simulation offer?

Biomechanics and Modeling in Mechanobiology - We overview recent advances in the theoretical modeling, in particular via numerical simulation, of various vital human erythrocyte phenomena. The...     

Radiation of the Australian flora: what can comparisons of molecular phylogenies across multiple taxa tell us about the evolution of diversity in present-day communities?

The Australian fossil record shows that from ca. 25 Myr ago, the aseasonal-wet biome (rainforest and wet heath) gave way to the unique Australian sclerophyll biomes dominated by eucalypts, acacias and casuarinas. This transition coincided with tectonic isolation of Australia, leading to cooler, drier, more seasonal climates. From 3 Myr ago, aridification caused rapid opening of the central Australian arid zone. Molecular phylogenies with dated nodes have provided new perspectives on how these events could have affected the evolution of the Australian flora. During the Mid-Cenozoic (25-10 Myr ago) period of climatic change, there were rapid radiations in sclerophyll taxa, such as Banksia, eucalypts, pea-flowered legumes and Allocasuarina. At the same time, taxa restricted to the aseasonal-wet biome (Nothofagus, Podocarpaceae and Araucariaceae) did not radiate or were depleted by extinction. During the Pliocene aridification, two Eremean biome taxa (Lepidium and Chenopodiaceae) radiated rapidly after dispersing into Australia from overseas. It is clear that the biomes have different histories. Lineages in the aseasonal-wet biome are species poor, with sister taxa that are species rich, either outside Australia or in the sclerophyll biomes. In conjunction with the fossil record, this indicates depletion of the Australian aseasonal-wet biome from the Mid-Cenozoic. In the sclerophyll biomes, there have been multiple exchanges between the southwest and southeast, rather than single large endemic radiations after a vicariance event. There is need for rigorous molecular phylogenetic studies so that additional questions can be addressed, such as how interactions between biomes may have driven the speciation process during radiations. New studies should include the hitherto neglected monsoonal tropics.     

Diet analysis in piscivorous birds: What can the addition of molecular tools offer?

In trophic studies on piscivorous birds, it is vital to know which kind of dietary sample provides the information of interest and how the prey can be identified reliably and efficiently. Often, noninvasively obtained dietary samples such as regurgitated pellets, feces, and regurgitated fish samples are the preferred source of information. Fish prey has usually been identified via morphological analysis of undigested hard parts, but molecular approaches are being increasingly used for this purpose. What remains unknown, however, is which dietary sample type is best suited for molecular diet analysis and how the molecular results compare to those obtained by morphological analysis. Pellets, feces, and regurgitated fish samples of Great Cormorants (Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis) were examined for prey using both morphological hard part analysis and molecular prey identification. The sample types and methods were compared regarding number of species detected (overall and per sample) as well as the prey species composition and its variability among individual samples. Via molecular analysis, significantly higher numbers of prey species were detected in pellets, feces, and fish samples. Of the three sample types, pellets contained the most comprehensive trophic information and could be obtained with the lowest sampling effort. Contrastingly, dietary information obtained from feces was least informative and most variable. For all sample types, the molecular approach outperformed morphological hard part identification regarding the detectable prey spectrum and prey species composition. We recommend the use of pellets in combination with molecular prey identification to study the diet of piscivorous birds.     

Broken pieces: can variable ecological interactions be deduced from the remains of crab attacks on bivalve shells?

Shell fragmentation patterns that result from attacks by durophagous predators on hard‐shelled marine invertebrates are a rich source of indirect evidence that have proved useful in interpreting predation pressure in the fossil record and recent ecology. The behaviour and effectiveness of predators are known to be variable with respect to prey size. It is less well understood if variable predator–prey interactions are reflected in shell fragmentation patterns. Therefore, we conducted experimental trials to test the behavioural response of a living crab, Carcinus maenas, during successful predatory attacks on the blue mussel Mytilus edulis on two prey size categories. Further, we examined resultant shell fragments to determine whether specific attack behaviours by C. maenas could be successfully deduced from remaining mussel shells. In contrast to previous studies, we observed no significant differences in attack behaviour by the predators attributable to prey size. In most experimental predation events, crabs employed an ad hoc combination of five mechanisms of predation previously described for this species. We identified seven categories of shell breakage in predated mussels, but none of these were unambiguously correlated with specific attack behaviour. Combined attack behaviours may produce shell breakage patterns that have previously been assumed to be attributable to a single behaviour. While specific patterns of shell breakage are clearly attributable to durophagy, the results of this study provide important insights into the limitations of indirect evidence to interpret ecological interactions.     

Diagnosing predation risk effects on demography: can measuring physiology provide the means?

Predators kill prey thereby affecting prey survival and, in the traditional top-down view of predator limitation, that is their sole effect. Bottom-up food limitation alters the physiological condition of individuals affecting both fecundity and survival. Predators of course also scare prey inducing anti-predator defences that may carry physiological costs powerful enough to reduce prey fecundity and survival. Here, we consider whether measuring physiology can be used as a tool to unambiguously diagnose predation risk effects. We begin by providing a review of recent papers reporting physiological effects of predation risk. We then present a conceptual framework describing the pathways by which predators and food can affect prey populations and give an overview of predation risk effects on demography in various taxa. Because scared prey typically eat less the principal challenge we see will be to identify measures that permit us to avoid mistaking predator-induced reductions in food intake for absolute food shortage. To construct an effective diagnostic toolkit we advocate collecting multiple physiological measures and utilizing multivariate statistical procedures. We recommend conducting two-factor predation risk × food manipulations to identify those physiological effects least likely to be mistaken for responses to bottom-up food limitation. We suggest there is a critical need to develop a diagnostic tool that can be used when it is infeasible to experimentally test for predation risk effects on demography, as may often be the case in wildlife conservation, since failing to consider predation risk effects may cause the total impact of predators to be dramatically underestimated.     

Non-consumptive effects of larval Salamandra on crustacean prey: can eggs detect predators?

Predators affect prey populations not only by prey consumption but also in nonconsumptive ways including modifying prey behavior. I tested the effects of fire salamander larvae (Salamandra infraimmaculata) on populations of co-occurring crustacean species in artificial outdoor pools. I also tested whether these effects were due entirely to prey consumption by Salamandra larvae or alternatively to some nonconsumptive effect. The soil (containing crustacean eggs) added to the artificial pools was collected from a dried-out temporary pool that is inhabited by Salamandra during the early part of the hydroperiod. I randomly assigned the pools to one of three treatments: control, free Salamandra, or caged Salamandra. Free salamander larvae could roam the entire pool and prey upon crustaceans. Caged salamander larvae were placed within a cage with having 250-μm mesh windows. They could not prey upon the crustaceans but could, for example, influence them by chemical cues. Densities of the three dominant crustacean species (Arctodiaptomus similis, Ceriodaphnia quadrangula and Cyzicus sp.) were drastically reduced in both salamander treatments compared to the control. Crustacean densities, however, were not significantly different between the two salamander treatments. One plausible explanation is that crustacean eggs can detect the presence of this predator via chemical cues and delay hatching. Received: 4 March 1996 / Accepted, 23 October 1996     

Exploring the difficulties of studying futures in ecology: what do ecological scientists think?

In a mainly experimental science based traditionally on hypothesis testing such as ecology, studying futures may be difficult. However, in the last few decades, predicting the consequences of global changes on the dynamics and function of ecological systems has become a major challenge in ecological research. To study how ecological scientists deal with potential difficulties in studying futures, we adopted a reflexive viewpoint on how scientists address the study of ecological futures. To do so we questioned a panel of ecological scientists on their practical involvement and point of view. Quantitative and qualitative analyses of their responses showed that predictions or predictive models were the dominant theme. Many quantitative models, based on statistical correlations, empirical rules or processes have been developed and their methodological limitations explored by the researchers we interviewed. In a small proportion of studies, qualitative scenarios have been elaborated to explore the range of possible futures. Interviewees emphasized the problem of dealing with ecological complexity and multiple future possibilities. Specificities of futures compared to past or present events were not fully identified. In fact, researchers studying futures mainly adopted a reductionist approach, trying to simplify complex ecological systems. But methods and tools promoted by such an approach to science may not always be appropriate to deal with future ecological complexity. Indeed, an emphasis on prediction prevents ecologists from acknowledging the multiplicity and undetermined nature of futures.     

Fossils of parasites: what can the fossil record tell us about the evolution of parasitism?

Parasites are common in many ecosystems, yet because of their nature, they do not fossilise readily and are very rare in the geological record. This makes it challenging to study the evolutionary transition that led to the evolution of parasitism in different taxa. Most studies on the evolution of parasites are based on phylogenies of extant species that were constructed based on morphological and molecular data, but they give us an incomplete picture and offer little information on many important details of parasite–host interactions. The lack of fossil parasites also means we know very little about the roles that parasites played in ecosystems of the past even though it is known that parasites have significant influences on many ecosystems. The goal of this review is to bring attention to known fossils of parasites and parasitism, and provide a conceptual framework for how research on fossil parasites can develop in the future. Despite their rarity, there are some fossil parasites which have been described from different geological eras. These fossils include the free‐living stage of parasites, parasites which became fossilised with their hosts, parasite eggs and propagules in coprolites, and traces of pathology inflicted by parasites on the host's body. Judging from the fossil record, while there were some parasite–host relationships which no longer exist in the present day, many parasite taxa which are known from the fossil record seem to have remained relatively unchanged in their general morphology and their patterns of host association over tens or even hundreds of millions of years. It also appears that major evolutionary and ecological transitions throughout the history of life on Earth coincided with the appearance of certain parasite taxa, as the appearance of new host groups also provided new niches for potential parasites. As such, fossil parasites can provide additional data regarding the ecology of their extinct hosts, since many parasites have specific life cycles and transmission modes which reflect certain aspects of the host's ecology. The study of fossil parasites can be conducted using existing techniques in palaeontology and palaeoecology, and microscopic examination of potential material such as coprolites may uncover more fossil evidence of parasitism. However, I also urge caution when interpreting fossils as examples of parasites or parasitism‐induced traces. I point out a number of cases where parasitism has been spuriously attributed to some fossil specimens which, upon re‐examination, display traits which are just as (if not more) likely to be found in free‐living taxa. The study of parasite fossils can provide a more complete picture of the ecosystems and evolution of life throughout Earth's history.     

The ecological effects of the ant–hemipteran mutualism: A meta-analysis

Ant–hemipteran mutualism has a variety of ecological effects on the host plants, but the magnitude and moderators of those effects are poorly known. We evaluated this issue by conducting a meta-analysis based on 49 published studies. Results showed that the mutualism had significant protective effects on the host plans, although those effects did not lead to enhanced plant growth or reproductive performance. Both herbivores and predators on plants were strongly suppressed by the mutualism; a similar pattern was also detected for fruit removal. The ecological effects of the mutualism tended to be more consistent and stronger in tropical and subtropical regions, whereas in temperate regions, none of the tested variables was significantly affected by the mutualism. The protective effects of the mutualism on plants were independent of plant life form and the invasiveness of ants. The effect of the mutualism on predators varied with plant life form. The study confirmed that the ant–hemipteran mutualism has a wide range of ecological influences on plants and highlights the significance of a common and wide-spread mutualism.     

Pertussis: what percentage of children can we immunise?

The immunisation records of 584 children who were born between 1978 and 1982, in a general practice of average social class distribution, were examined: 3.5% of the children would have been excluded from starting a course of vaccination including pertussis using contra-indications established by the Department of Health and Social Security. A further 3.5% had reactions to immunisation that were judged severe enough to prevent completing the course of vaccination. In 1981 and 1982 13% of parents refused pertussis vaccination, considerably fewer than from 1978 to 80. Concomitantly, immunisation against pertussis rose from 51% to 84% over the five year period. Given the incidence of contra-indications and the level of parental refusal, it is concluded that a pertussis uptake of 80% would be a reasonable target for any population.     

Unpacking the ‘black box’: Improving ecological interpretation of regression-based models

Aim

Many tree species distribution models use black-box machine learning techniques that often neglect interpretative aspects and instead focus mainly on maximizing predictive accuracy. In this study, we outline an interpretative modelling framework to gain better ecological insights while mapping abundance patterns of six North American species.

Location

Continental United States and Canada.

Methods

We develop an innovative procedure using regression trees by stabilizing variance, and mapping dominant rules which we term ‘optimized regression tree bagging for interpretation and mapping’ (ORTBIM). We apply this technique to understand ecological features influencing the abundance patterns of three eastern (Pinus strobus, Acer saccharum and Quercus montana), and three western (Picea engelmannii, Pinus ponderosa and Pseudotsuga menziesii) tree species in North America. For these species, we assess and map the dominant climate–terrain interactions that partly determine abundance patterns in the eastern and western regions. In the process, we examine the role of varying responses and scales and explore finer-scale species climate–terrain niches and non-linear relationships.

Results

Our study emphasizes the prominent role of elevation and heat–moisture variables in the west and the greater importance of seasonal precipitation and seasonal temperature in the east. The abundance patterns under future climate (SSP5-8.5) show climate–terrain habitats shifting northward and westward into Canada and Alaska for the eastern species, and predominantly north-westward for the western species.

Conclusion

Our interpretative modelling framework can be used to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the abundance patterns across the full species range, formulate better predictive models and facilitate improved management practices under climate change.     

Experimental mouse tumour models: what can be learnt about human cancer immunology?

The recent demonstration that cancer immunotherapy extends patient survival has reinvigorated interest in elucidating the role of immunity in tumour pathogenesis. Experimental mouse tumour models have provided key mechanistic insights into host antitumour immune responses, and these have guided the development of novel treatment strategies. To accelerate the translation of these findings into clinical benefits, investigators need to gain a better understanding of the strengths and limitations of mouse model systems as tools for deciphering human antitumour immune responses.     

Impact of antimicrobial residues on gut communities: are the new regulations effective?

Veterinary medicines are subject to a rigorous evaluation with regard to safety, efficacy and quality before they are licensed. For drugs used in food producing animals, it is necessary to establish what is referred to as the acceptable daily intake (ADI), this is defined as an estimate of the amount of a substance, expressed on a body weight basis, that can be ingested daily over a lifetime without appreciable risk to human health. It is necessary to determine a toxicological, pharmacological and microbiological ADI. This article describes a recently harmonized guideline that outlines the process for determining the need for a microbiological ADI and discusses the test systems that take into account the complexity of the human intestinal flora. The described process is used to address the effects of antimicrobial drug residues on human intestinal flora for regulatory purposes. The guideline does not recommend any one particular system for use in regulatory decision making but provides recommendations for a harmonized approach to establish a microbiological ADI and offers test options rather than specifying a testing regimen. The process and the challenges of this new guideline are discussed.