Performance of criteria for selecting evolutionary models in phylogenetics: a comprehensive study based on simulated datasets

Background  

Explicit evolutionary models are required in maximum-likelihood and Bayesian inference, the two methods that are overwhelmingly used in phylogenetic studies of DNA sequence data. Appropriate selection of nucleotide substitution models is important because the use of incorrect models can mislead phylogenetic inference. To better understand the performance of different model-selection criteria, we used 33,600 simulated data sets to analyse the accuracy, precision, dissimilarity, and biases of the hierarchical likelihood-ratio test, Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, and decision theory.     

Identifying interactions in the time and frequency domains in local and global networks - A Granger Causality Approach

Background  

Reverse-engineering approaches such as Bayesian network inference, ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and information theory are widely applied to deriving causal relationships among different elements such as genes, proteins, metabolites, neurons, brain areas and so on, based upon multi-dimensional spatial and temporal data. There are several well-established reverse-engineering approaches to explore causal relationships in a dynamic network, such as ordinary differential equations (ODE), Bayesian networks, information theory and Granger Causality.     

ABCtoolbox: a versatile toolkit for approximate Bayesian computations

Background  

The estimation of demographic parameters from genetic data often requires the computation of likelihoods. However, the likelihood function is computationally intractable for many realistic evolutionary models, and the use of Bayesian inference has therefore been limited to very simple models. The situation changed recently with the advent of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithms allowing one to obtain parameter posterior distributions based on simulations not requiring likelihood computations.     

Bifurcation analysis informs Bayesian inference in the Hes1 feedback loop

Background  

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are an important tool for describing the dynamics of biological systems. However, for ODE models to be useful, their parameters must first be calibrated. Parameter estimation, that is, finding parameter values given experimental data, is an inference problem that can be treated systematically through a Bayesian framework.     

Mocapy++ - A toolkit for inference and learning in dynamic Bayesian networks

Background  

Mocapy++ is a toolkit for parameter learning and inference in dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). It supports a wide range of DBN architectures and probability distributions, including distributions from directional statistics (the statistics of angles, directions and orientations).     

PSMIX: an R package for population structure inference via maximum likelihood method

Background  

Inference of population stratification and individual admixture from genetic markers is an integrative part of a study in diverse situations, such as association mapping and evolutionary studies. Bayesian methods have been proposed for population stratification and admixture inference using multilocus genotypes and widely used in practice. However, these Bayesian methods demand intensive computation resources and may run into convergence problem in Markov Chain Monte Carlo based posterior samplings.     

BEAST: Bayesian evolutionary analysis by sampling trees

Background  

The evolutionary analysis of molecular sequence variation is a statistical enterprise. This is reflected in the increased use of probabilistic models for phylogenetic inference, multiple sequence alignment, and molecular population genetics. Here we present BEAST: a fast, flexible software architecture for Bayesian analysis of molecular sequences related by an evolutionary tree. A large number of popular stochastic models of sequence evolution are provided and tree-based models suitable for both within- and between-species sequence data are implemented.     

Inference on population history and model checking using DNA sequence and microsatellite data with the software DIYABC (v1.0)

Background  

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a recent flexible class of Monte-Carlo algorithms increasingly used to make model-based inference on complex evolutionary scenarios that have acted on natural populations. The software DIYABC offers a user-friendly interface allowing non-expert users to consider population histories involving any combination of population divergences, admixtures and population size changes. We here describe and illustrate new developments of this software that mainly include (i) inference from DNA sequence data in addition or separately to microsatellite data, (ii) the possibility to analyze five categories of loci considering balanced or non balanced sex ratios: autosomal diploid, autosomal haploid, X-linked, Y-linked and mitochondrial, and (iii) the possibility to perform model checking computation to assess the "goodness-of-fit" of a model, a feature of ABC analysis that has been so far neglected.     

Phylogenetic relationships of typical antbirds (Thamnophilidae) and test of incongruence based on Bayes factors

Background  

The typical antbirds (Thamnophilidae) form a monophyletic and diverse family of suboscine passerines that inhabit neotropical forests. However, the phylogenetic relationships within this assemblage are poorly understood. Herein, we present a hypothesis of the generic relationships of this group based on Bayesian inference analyses of two nuclear introns and the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene. The level of phylogenetic congruence between the individual genes has been investigated utilizing Bayes factors. We also explore how changes in the substitution models affected the observed incongruence between partitions of our data set.     

Enhanced Bayesian modelling in BAPS software for learning genetic structures of populations

Background  

During the most recent decade many Bayesian statistical models and software for answering questions related to the genetic structure underlying population samples have appeared in the scientific literature. Most of these methods utilize molecular markers for the inferences, while some are also capable of handling DNA sequence data. In a number of earlier works, we have introduced an array of statistical methods for population genetic inference that are implemented in the software BAPS. However, the complexity of biological problems related to genetic structure analysis keeps increasing such that in many cases the current methods may provide either inappropriate or insufficient solutions.     

A method of predicting changes in human gene splicing induced by genetic variants in context of cis-acting elements

Background  

Polymorphic variants and mutations disrupting canonical splicing isoforms are among the leading causes of human hereditary disorders. While there is a substantial evidence of aberrant splicing causing Mendelian diseases, the implication of such events in multi-genic disorders is yet to be well understood. We have developed a new tool (SpliceScan II) for predicting the effects of genetic variants on splicing and cis-regulatory elements. The novel Bayesian non-canonical 5'GC splice site (SS) sensor used in our tool allows inference on non-canonical exons.     

Accurate Inference of Subtle Population Structure (and Other Genetic Discontinuities) Using Principal Coordinates

Background

Accurate inference of genetic discontinuities between populations is an essential component of intraspecific biodiversity and evolution studies, as well as associative genetics. The most widely-used methods to infer population structure are model-based, Bayesian MCMC procedures that minimize Hardy-Weinberg and linkage disequilibrium within subpopulations. These methods are useful, but suffer from large computational requirements and a dependence on modeling assumptions that may not be met in real data sets. Here we describe the development of a new approach, PCO-MC, which couples principal coordinate analysis to a clustering procedure for the inference of population structure from multilocus genotype data.

Methodology/Principal Findings

PCO-MC uses data from all principal coordinate axes simultaneously to calculate a multidimensional “density landscape”, from which the number of subpopulations, and the membership within subpopulations, is determined using a valley-seeking algorithm. Using extensive simulations, we show that this approach outperforms a Bayesian MCMC procedure when many loci (e.g. 100) are sampled, but that the Bayesian procedure is marginally superior with few loci (e.g. 10). When presented with sufficient data, PCO-MC accurately delineated subpopulations with population F_st values as low as 0.03 (G''_st>0.2), whereas the limit of resolution of the Bayesian approach was F_st = 0.05 (G''_st>0.35).

Conclusions/Significance

We draw a distinction between population structure inference for describing biodiversity as opposed to Type I error control in associative genetics. We suggest that discrete assignments, like those produced by PCO-MC, are appropriate for circumscribing units of biodiversity whereas expression of population structure as a continuous variable is more useful for case-control correction in structured association studies.     

Giving a scientific basis for uncertainty factors used in global life cycle inventory databases: an algorithm to update factors using new information

Purpose

Life cycle inventory (LCI) databases provide generic data on exchange values associated with unit processes. The “ecoinvent” LCI database estimates the uncertainty of all exchange values through the application of the so-called pedigree approach. In the first release of the database, the used uncertainty factors were based on experts’ judgments. In 2013, Ciroth et al. derived empirically based factors. These, however, assumed that the same uncertainty factors could be used for all industrial sectors and fell short of providing basic uncertainty factors. The work presented here aims to overcome these limitations.

Methods

The proposed methodological framework is based on the assessment of more than 60 data sources (23,200 data points) and the use of Bayesian inference. Using Bayesian inference allows an update of uncertainty factors by systematically combining experts’ judgments and other information we already have about the uncertainty factors with new data.

Results and discussion

The implementation of the methodology over the data sources results in the definition of new uncertainty factors for all additional uncertainty indicators and for some specific industrial sectors. It also results in the definition of some basic uncertainty factors. In general, the factors obtained are higher than the ones obtained in previous work, which suggests that the experts had initially underestimated uncertainty. Furthermore, the presented methodology can be applied to update uncertainty factors as new data become available.

Conclusions

In practice, these uncertainty factors can systematically be incorporated in LCI databases as estimates of exchange value uncertainty where more formal uncertainty information is not available. The use of Bayesian inference is applied here to update uncertainty factors but can also be used in other life cycle assessment developments in order to improve experts’ judgments or to update parameter values when new data can be accessed.

     

Incorporating indel information into phylogeny estimation for rapidly emerging pathogens

Background  

Phylogenies of rapidly evolving pathogens can be difficult to resolve because of the small number of substitutions that accumulate in the short times since divergence. To improve resolution of such phylogenies we propose using insertion and deletion (indel) information in addition to substitution information. We accomplish this through joint estimation of alignment and phylogeny in a Bayesian framework, drawing inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo. Joint estimation of alignment and phylogeny sidesteps biases that stem from conditioning on a single alignment by taking into account the ensemble of near-optimal alignments.     

Comparative study of discretization methods of microarray data for inferring transcriptional regulatory networks

Background  

Microarray data discretization is a basic preprocess for many algorithms of gene regulatory network inference. Some common discretization methods in informatics are used to discretize microarray data. Selection of the discretization method is often arbitrary and no systematic comparison of different discretization has been conducted, in the context of gene regulatory network inference from time series gene expression data.     

A DNA and morphology based phylogenetic framework of the ant genus <Emphasis Type="Italic">Lasius</Emphasis> with hypotheses for the evolution of social parasitism and fungiculture

Background  

Ants of the genus Lasius are ecologically important and an important system for evolutionary research. Progress in evolutionary research has been hindered by the lack of a well-founded phylogeny of the subgenera, with three previous attempts disagreeing. Here we employed two mitochondrial genes (cytochrome c oxidase subunit I, 16S ribosomal RNA), comprising 1,265 bp, together with 64 morphological characters, to recover the phylogeny of Lasius by Bayesian and Maximum Parsimony inference after exploration of potential causes of phylogenetic distortion. We use the resulting framework to infer evolutionary pathways for social parasitism and fungiculture.     

A computational framework for gene regulatory network inference that combines multiple methods and datasets

Background  

Reverse engineering in systems biology entails inference of gene regulatory networks from observational data. This data typically include gene expression measurements of wild type and mutant cells in response to a given stimulus. It has been shown that when more than one type of experiment is used in the network inference process the accuracy is higher. Therefore the development of generally applicable and effective methodologies that embed multiple sources of information in a single computational framework is a worthwhile objective.     

Complex inter‐island colonization and peripatric founder speciation promote diversification of flightless Pachyrhynchus weevils in the Taiwan–Luzon volcanic belt

Aim

We investigated the spatial and temporal patterns of diversification among colourful and flightless weevils, the Pachyrhynchus orbifer complex, to test the stepping‐stone hypothesis of colonization across the Taiwan–Luzon volcanic belt.

Location

Southeast Asia.

Methods

The phylogeny of the P. orbifer complex was reconstructed from a multi‐locus data set of mitochondrial and nuclear genes using maximum likelihood in RAxML and Bayesian inference in MRBAYES. Likelihood‐based tests in CONSEL were used to evaluate alternative tree topologies. Divergence times were estimated in beast based on a range of mutation rates. Ancestral range and biogeographical history were reconstructed using Bayesian binary MCMC (BBM) methods in RASP and in BioGeoBEARS. Demographic histories were inferred using the extended Bayesian skyline plot (EBSP). Species boundaries were tested using BPP.

Results

The phylogeny of the P. orbifer complex indicated strong support for seven reciprocally monophyletic lineages grouped by current island boundaries (Camiguin, Fuga, Dalupiri, Calayan, Babuyan, Orchid and Yaeyama Islands), except for a sister Green + Itbayat lineage. Complex and stochastic colonization of P. orbifer was inferred to have involved both northward and southward directions with short‐ and long‐distance dispersal events, which are strongly inconsistent with the strict stepping‐stone hypothesis. Divergence time estimates for all extant island lineages (<1 Myr of Middle Pleistocene) are much more recent than the geological ages (22.4–1.7 Myr) and subaerial existence (c. 3 Myr) of the islands. The statistically delimited seven cryptic species imply that the diversity of Pachyrhynchus from small peripheral islands continues to be largely under‐estimated.

Main conclusions

The non‐linear, more complex spatial and temporal settings of the archipelago and stochastic dispersal were probable key factors shaping the colonization history of the P. orbifer complex. Speciation of the P. orbifer complex may have occurred only between islands, indicating that peripatric speciation through the founders of stochastic dispersals was the major evolutionary driver.