On integrating climatic change and culture change studies

In the last few decades, advances in understanding and modeling climate have paralleled the growth of an impressive log of radiocarbon dates and quantitative analyses of climatic indicators including pollen, tree rings, and lake levels. At the same time, archeological research has given us an impressive assemblage of cultural information. We also have the tools for sorting out the diverse sources of variance in our datasets. The time has come to begin to integrate these lines of scientific endeavor to produce a mutually coherent picture of at least one of the mechanisms that have affected the history of humankind, and one that undoubtedly will affect the future as well.     

中国遥感干旱指数时空特征及其对气候和地表覆盖变化的响应

干旱严重影响植被生长,威胁粮食安全,基于遥感计算的植被状态指数（Vegetation Condition Index,VCI）、温度状态指数（Temperature Condition Index,TCI）和植被健康指数（Vegetation Health Index,VHI）是常用的干旱指数,被广泛应用于干旱监测。为了探究近年来我国干旱特征及其对气候和地表覆盖变化的响应,分析了2003-2016年期间VCI、TCI和VHI的时空变化特征;采用最小二乘（OLS）和偏相关分析方法分析了这些指数对气候和地表覆盖变化的响应。基于上述干旱指数计算的干旱频率表明,中温带中部和南温带等地区干旱发生频率高,干旱指数变化趋势表明在2003-2016年期间中国大部分地区干旱缓解,但在中温带、南温带和高原气候区等局部地区干旱加剧;总体而言,干旱指数随着年平均温度的上升和年降水量的降低而减小,VHI与温度和降水量的相关性在不同气候区的一致性优于VCI和TCI;裸土的减少和植被的增加导致干旱指数增大,树木转变为低矮植被干旱指数降低。     

Response of Chlamydomonas to Temperature Change

SYNOPSIS. Response of Chlamydomonas to temperature change was investigated. When the temperature of the medium was suddenly increased (decreased) the abrupt velocity rise (drop) was observed. This abrupt velocity change was induced immediately after the temperature change. Then, the high (low) level of the velocity was maintained for a few minutes. Finally the velocity decreased (increased), tending to a stationary level at the new temperature with the decay time of a few minutes. The rate of the temperature change determined the magnitude of response. The threshold value was found in the rate of the temperature change to produce the transient change of the velocity. It was ∼ 0.2 C/sec.     

Current issues in tropical phenology: a synthesis

We retrace the development of tropical phenology research, compare temperate phenology study to that in the tropics and highlight the advances currently being made in this flourishing discipline. The synthesis draws attention to how fundamentally different tropical phenology data can be to temperate data. Tropical plants lack a phase of winter dormancy and may grow and reproduce continually. Seasonal patterns in environmental parameters, such as rainfall, irradiance or temperature, do not necessarily coincide temporally, as they do in temperate climes. We review recent research on the drivers of phenophase cycles in individual trees, species and communities and highlight how significant innovations in biometric tools and approaches are being driven by the need to deal with circular data, the complexity of defining tropical seasons and the myriad growth and reproductive strategies used by tropical plants. We discuss how important the use of leaf phenology (or remotely‐sensed proxies of leaf phenophases) has become in tracking biome responses to climate change at the continental level and how important the phenophase of forests can be in determining local weather conditions. We also highlight how powerful analyses of plant responses are hampered at many tropical sites by a lack of contextual data on local environmental conditions. We conclude by arguing that there is a clear global benefit in increasing long term tropical phenology data collection and improving empirical collection of local climate measures, contemporary to the phenology data. Directing more resources to research in this sector will be widely beneficial.     

Ecological implications of climate change will include surprises

In addition to assessing the impacts of CO₂ doubling on environment and society, more consideration is needed to estimate extreme events or surprises. This is particularly important at the intersection of disciplines like climate and ecology because the potential for large discontinuities is high given all the possible climate/biota interactions. The vast disparities in scales encountered by those working in traditional ecology (typically 20 m) and climatology (typically 200 km) make diagnoses of such interactions difficult, but these can be addressed by an emerging research paradigm we call strategic cyclical scaling (SCS). The need to anticipate outlier events and assign them subjective probabilities suggests emphasis on interdisciplinary research associations. The desire to reduce societal vulnerability to such events suggests the need to build adaptive management and diverse economic activities into social organizations. The effectiveness of adaptation responses to anticipated climatic changes is complicated when consideration of transient changes, regional disturbances, large unforseeable natural fluctuations and surprises are considered. Slowing down the rate of disturbances and decreasing vulnerability are advocated as the most prudent responses to the prospect of human-induced climatic changes.     

应用SWAT模型研究潮河流域土地利用和气候变化对径流的影响

为定量分析潮河流域土地利用和气候变化对流域径流变化的影响,应用SWAT模型对流域上游至下游的大阁、戴营和下会3个水文站径流进行模拟,采用情景法分析径流对土地利用和气候变化的响应。在模型校准期和验证期采用两个参数:p因子和r因子来评价模拟的拟合度及不确定性。结果表明,3个水文站在校准期和验证期的p因子值分别为:0.70和0.77,0.87和0.82,0.92和0.78,r因子值分别为0.63和0.90,0.97和0.79,0.88和0.92,评价整个流域模拟有效性的模型目标函数g最佳值为0.66,说明该模型对潮河流域的产水量模拟具有很好的适用性。以1981—1990年为基准期,1991—2000年流域土地利用变化造成年径流量减少了4.10 mm,而气候变化导致年径流增加了29.68 mm;2001—2009年土地利用变化造成年径流量减少2.98mm,气候变化造成年径流量减少了14.30 mm。与1999年土地利用条件模拟径流值相比,几种极端情景法模拟分析结果表明:灌木林地情景下年径流增加了158.2%,草地情景下年径流增加了4.1%,林地和耕地情景下年径流分别减少23.7%和41.7%;不同气候变异情景模拟结果显示,径流对降水的变化敏感性高于对温度变化的敏感性,降水每增加10%,径流平均增加23.9%。温度每增加12%,径流平均减少6%。因此,在气候变化背景下,优化土地利用结构与方式是实现流域水资源科学管理的途径之一。     

A methodology for mapping current and future heat stress risk in pigs

Heat stress is a global issue constraining pig productivity, and it is likely to intensify under future climate change. Technological advances in earth observation have made tools available that enable identification and mapping livestock species that are at risk of exposure to heat stress due to climate change. Here, we present a methodology to map the current and likely future heat stress risk in pigs using R software by combining the effects of temperature and relative humidity. We applied the method to growing-finishing pigs in Uganda. We mapped monthly heat stress risk and quantified the number of pigs exposed to heat stress using 18 global circulation models and projected impacts in the 2050s. Results show that more than 800 000 pigs in Uganda will be affected by heat stress in the future. The results can feed into evidence-based policy, planning and targeted resource allocation in the livestock sector.     

毕节试验区石漠化时空演变过程和演变特征

基于RS和GIS技术,解译了2000、2005和2010年3期毕节试验区石漠化数据,利用空间分析和数理统计分析方法,在探讨石漠化时空演变总体特征的基础上,选取演变方式、演变方向和演变速率等指标,重点分析了不同石漠化强度之间的内部转移特征,演绎了10年间毕节试验区石漠化演变过程。研究表明:(1)10年间,石漠化总面积呈现先增加后趋稳的演变态势,石漠化扩张趋势虽然初步遏制,但局部地区还在恶化,防治形势仍很严峻;(2)石漠化演变方式以渐变式为主,跳跃式为辅,返变式最少;(3)石漠化演变的方向既存在改善也存在恶化,且轻度改善和轻度恶化的面积均比较大,一边治理、一边破坏的现象还没有根本遏制;(4)非石漠化与石漠化相互转换非常活跃,潜在石漠化虽被定义为非石漠化,但并不稳定,容易转变为石漠化;(5)石漠化演变速率分为转入速率、转出速率和综合速率,中度石漠化综合速率最高,转入速率大于转出速率,潜在石漠化和轻度石漠化是中度石漠化增加的主要来源;(6)石漠化时空演变特征与生态环境建设及社会经济发展具有一定的相关性。该研究成果为喀斯特山区生态环境保护和石漠化防治提供了有益的参考。     

Climate change and vegetation response

This study, as many other current investigations in palaeoecology is focused on the long-term dynamics of vegetation and the extent to which they are controlled by climate change. Climate and classes of climate change are defined and reviewed, and examples cited of vegetation response. The concepts of vegetation, plant community and equilibrium are examined, with particular emphasis on theories on short term dynamics developed by ecologists working with temperate and boreal forests. Vegetation response to climate change can be modified by anthropogenic factors, topographic diversity and soils, life-cycle characteristics and hysteresis.I am grateful for comments on an earlier version of this paper by Keith Bennett, Les Cwynar and Glen MacDonald, and I particularly appreciate the useful remarks by Colin Prentice.I am grateful for comments on an earlier version of this paper by Keith Bennett, Les Cwynar and Glen MacDonald, and I particularly appreciate the useful remarks by Colin Prentice.     

Temperature-based population segregation in birch

Mean temperature of establishment years for warm‐ and cold‐year subpopulations of a naturally occurring stand of Betula pendula (birch) shows a difference equivalent to that between current temperatures and temperatures projected for 35–55 years hence, given ‘business as usual.’ The existence of ‘pre‐adapted’ individuals in standing tree populations would reduce temperature‐based advantages for invading species and, if general, bring into question assumptions currently used in models of global climate change. Our results demonstrate a methodology useful for investigating the important ecological issue of adaptation vs. range shifts as a means of response to climate change.     

The anatomy of a shrike bite: bill shape and bite performance in Loggerhead Shrikes

There is evidence that fisheries are altering the phenotypic composition of fish populations, often in ways that may reduce the value of fish stocks for the exploiters. Despite the increasing number of theoretical and field studies, there is still debate as to whether these changes are genetic, can be reversed, and are occurring rapidly enough to be considered in fisheries management. We review the contribution that selection experiments have already provided with respect to the study of the evolutionary effect of fisheries, identify issues that still require more study, and outline future directions for doing so. Selection experiments have already been crucial in showing that harvesting can lead to phenotypic and genetic evolution over relatively short time frames. Furthermore, the experiments have shown the changes involve many other traits than those under direct selection, and that these changes tend to have population‐level consequences, including a decreasing fisheries yield. However, experiments focused on fisheries‐induced evolution that fulfil all our requirements are still lacking. Future studies should have more controlled and realistic set‐ups and assess genetic changes in maturation and growth (i.e. traits most often reported to change) to be more relevant to exploited populations in the wild. © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 111 , 485–503.     

城市空气真菌群落多样性研究概况

对城市空气真菌的一般研究方法、分布特征、影响因素、危害等方面进行了综述,并对空气真菌的研究前景进行了展望。空气真菌生长的影响因素较多,其分布特征与当地的气候条件和生态环境密切相关,群落特征和分布状况具有明显的时间性和地域性。在条件适宜时,空气真菌孢子浓度的增加,对人类健康和生活环境造成严重的危害。     

The Norwegian sheep breeding scheme: description, genetic and phenotypic change

The developments in Norwegian sheep breeding since the early 1990s are reviewed. For the largest breeding population, the Norwegian White Sheep, results are presented for both genetic and phenotypic changes. Of the nine traits that make up the aggregate genotype, the largest gain per year, in per cent of the corresponding phenotypic average, was found for carcass grade (1.66%) and carcass weight (0.99%), number of lambs born at 1, 2 and 3 years of age (0.32% to 0.60%) and the maternal effect on weaning weight (0.26%). For fat grade, a genetic deterioration was estimated. This may be due to the too small weighting of this trait in the aggregate genotype and the true genetic parameters being somewhat different from the estimates in the prediction of breeding values. For lamb as well as ewe fleece weight, genetic change was close to zero - interpreted as mainly a correlated response to other traits in the aggregate genotype. Data for the two traits of fleece weight were, respectively, selected and few. Thus, phenotypic change was calculated for all traits except for fleece weight, and in addition for number of lambs at weaning, being indirectly selected for through number of lambs born. For all traits, with the exception of fat grade, advantageous phenotypic change was estimated. For weaning and carcass weight, the phenotypic change was less than the genetic change, while the opposite was observed for carcass and fat grade and number of lambs born. The latter traits can be more easily controlled by environmental actions, and the results thus exemplify the interdependency between environmental and genetic change.     

Eco-environmental changes assessment at the Chiufenershan landslide area caused by catastrophic earthquake in Central Taiwan

A large-scale landslide, caused by the catastrophic earthquake on 21 September 1999, occurred at the Chiufenershan area in Central Taiwan. Multi-temporal SPOT satellite images coupled with a self-organizing map neural network, terrain analysis, Universal Soil Loss Equation, and landscape patch indicators were used to assess eco-environmental changes of the denudation sites, such as changes of the post-quake landslide, terrain displacement, soil erosion, and landscape ecology. The extracted area soon after the earthquake was 215.68 ha. From 1999 through 2006, the denudation area declined to 113.36 ha, which indicates that about 47.44% of the landslide has been restored. Based on terrain analysis for the denudation sites, the debris volumes at the collapsed and deposited areas are 31,896,667 m³ and 39,537,067 m³, respectively. The large amount of debris blocked two streams, the Satsikenghsi and the Chiutsaihuhsi, to form two landslide-dammed lakes. The annual erosion depth soon after the earthquake reached 22.07 mm, about 3.59 times as high as pre-quake. Without vegetation cover on the topsoil, the denudation sites became high-erosion areas during subsequent typhoon seasons. However, with landslide restoration, annual soil erosion depth prediction has reduced to 13.54 mm, about 2.21 times as high as pre-quake. In addition, the assessment of landscape patch indicators also points out the heterogeneity and the degree of richness of the landscape due to vegetation recovery at the landslide area. The analyzed results show that nature itself has a robust ability to restore its original landscape and mitigate disaster impacts for the destroyed eco-environment.     

A review of influences of land use and land cover change on ecosystems

随着人口的增长和人类社会的发展, 土地利用与土地覆盖变化已经是不可避免。土地利用与土地覆盖变化不仅对生态系统的要素、结构和功能产生深远的影响, 也会对全球变化产生反馈作用。针对土地利用与土地覆盖变化的过程、驱动机制以及在各个方面可能产生的生态环境效应的科学研究已经全面开展。该文综述了土地利用与土地覆盖变化对气候、土壤、生物地球化学循环、生物多样性以及区域生态环境等影响方面的研究进展, 并提出了相关研究的前沿方向展望。随着新技术的不断发展, 学者们将更多地侧重预测未来全球变化背景下的土地利用与土地覆盖变化趋势、合理性以及适应性, 为可持续发展提供基础资料和理论依据。     

土地利用与土地覆盖变化对生态系统的影响

随着人口的增长和人类社会的发展, 土地利用与土地覆盖变化已经是不可避免。土地利用与土地覆盖变化不仅对生态系统的要素、结构和功能产生深远的影响, 也会对全球变化产生反馈作用。针对土地利用与土地覆盖变化的过程、驱动机制以及在各个方面可能产生的生态环境效应的科学研究已经全面开展。该文综述了土地利用与土地覆盖变化对气候、土壤、生物地球化学循环、生物多样性以及区域生态环境等影响方面的研究进展, 并提出了相关研究的前沿方向展望。随着新技术的不断发展, 学者们将更多地侧重预测未来全球变化背景下的土地利用与土地覆盖变化趋势、合理性以及适应性, 为可持续发展提供基础资料和理论依据。     

Exploring lake ecosystems: hierarchy responses to long‐term change?

Shifts in climate regime have provoked substantial trophic‐ and species‐dependent changes within ecosystems. With growing concerns of present global warming, we examined potential lake ecosystem responses, natural hierarchy responses (i.e. immediate responses at lower system levels as opposed to delayed responses at higher system levels), and possible shifts among abiotic (physics, nutrients) and biotic (phytoplankton, zooplankton) system components. Specifically, we analyzed decadal data collected from Müggelsee, a lake in Berlin, Germany, for climate‐induced abiotic and biotic changes, their timing and type, and classified them as abrupt permanent, gradual permanent, abrupt temporary, or monotonic. We further categorized variable changes as a function of system hierarchy, including lake physics (ice, temperature, stratification), nutrients (phosphorus, nitrogen, silicate), plankton, and levels of integration (i.e. species, taxonomic groups, and total plankton). Contrary to current theory, data suggest abrupt responses did not occur in a hierarchy‐dependent manner, nor was a clear pattern observed among functional system‐based categories. Abrupt permanent changes were the most prominent response pattern observed, suggesting they may be driven by large‐scale climatic oscillations and by surpassed thresholds, as noted in previous case studies. Gradual changes coincided with affected abiotic parameters spanning an expansive time range; for example, climatic effects in spring preceded changes in nutrient limitation. Variables displaying no long‐term changes pointed to compensation processes caused by, e.g., simultaneously acting forces of warming trends and climate‐independent changes in trophic state. Nevertheless, the complexity of response patterns at the single system level manifested clear chronological regime shifts in abiotic and biotic parameters in spring and, to a lesser extent, in summer. With regard to projected global warming, the majority of currently unaffected system levels may face impending thermal thresholds, achievement of which would result in an accelerated shift in ecosystem state.     

Effects of climate change on different geographical populations of the cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera,Noctuidae)

The effects of climate change on pest phenology and population size are highly variable. Understanding the impacts of localized climate change on pest distribution and phenology is helpful for improving integrated pest management strategies. Here, the population dynamics of cotton bollworms (Helicoverpa armigera) from Maigaiti County, south Xinjiang, and Shawan County, north Xinjiang, China, were analyzed using a 29‐year dataset at lower latitudes and a 23‐year dataset at higher latitudes to determine the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of H. armigera. The results showed that all generations of H. armigera at both sites showed increasing trends in population size with climate warming. Abrupt changes in phenology and population number occurred after abrupt temperature changes. Climate change had a greater effect on the phenology of H. armigera at higher latitudes than at lower latitudes and led to a greater increase in population size at lower latitudes than at higher latitudes; the temperature increase at higher latitudes will cause a greater increase in the adult moth population size in the future compared to that at lower latitudes; and abrupt changes in the phenology, temperature increase, and population size at lower latitudes occurred earlier than those at higher latitudes. Thus, it is necessary to develop sustainable management strategies for Helicoverpa armigera at an early stage.