小家鼠种群中长期预测—灰色系统模型及随机序列分析

小家鼠种群中长期波动受很多因素影响,采用灰色系统模型及随机序列分析的方法可以较好地从宏观上预测其波动趋势。本文以灰色系统GM(1,1)模型为基础,利用历年小家鼠种群数量的调查值,对其变动趋势进行预测;然后,对预测剩余误差进行随机序列分析,建立线性预测式预测随机项;趋势预测值与随机项预测值的和,做为小家鼠种群中长期波动的预测。对新疆天山北麓农区1969年至1979年小家鼠自然种群数量的模拟结果表明,本文中的方法是较为简便有效的。     

改进的GM(1,1)模型对内蒙古自治区手足口病高峰期发病率预测

以内蒙古自治区2009~2016年手足口病每年的高发月5~7月的发病数据为研究数据,分别建立自回归移动平均求和(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model,ARIMA)模型与GM(1,1)灰色模型,对内蒙古自治区手足口病的高发月9岁以下儿童发病率进行拟合与预测,两种单一模型预测结果显示,GM(1,1)模型的预测精度高于ARIMA模型。为降低数据波动性对GM(1,1)模型预测效果的影响,文中基于弱化缓冲算子对GM(1,1)模型进行了改进,改进的GM(1,1)模型具有较大的灵活性且提高了传统GM(1,1)模型的预测精度。     

油松毛虫发生的非线性灰色预测模型

<正> 油松毛虫Dendrolimus tabulaeformis Ts-ai et Liu是森林主要害虫之一。它的种群数量动态变化是上一年度种群数量动态变化的暂时结束,又是下一年度种群数量动态变化的重新开始。屠泉洪等利用灰色系统理论建立一阶线性灰色系统的动态模型[简称GM(1,1)模     

杨树生长模型的选择

本文选用常用生长模型和4类灰色模型,分别对6个新品系杨树生长动态规律进行模拟;结果表明：在常用的生长模型中,Richards方程模拟效果最好,而不是通常认为的Logistic方程;在灰色模型中．以GM（1,1）模拟效果最好,也可作为杨树生长模型．     

GM(1,1)模型和等维递补GM(1,1)模型在流动人口结核病预测中的应用

目的:探讨流动人口结核病疫情预测方法,为结核病控制提供依据.方法:利用2000～2009年深圳市宝安区流动人口初治涂阳结核病发病人数,建立GM(1,1)模型和等维递补GM(1,1)模型进行预测,并用多种方法检验两模型的拟合效果.结果:GM(1,1)模型参数α值为-0.173,μ值为210.815,其拟合精度指标均方差比值为0.183,平均相时误差为7.839,小误差概率为1.等维递补GM(1,1)模型的一阶递补参数α值为-0.174,μ值为249.856,二阶递补参数α值为-0.172,μ值为310.436,拟合精度指标均方差比值和平均相对误差均较GM(1,1)模型小,小误差概率均为1.后者预测到2010、2011和2012年深圳市宝安区流动人口初治涂阳结核病发病人数分为1316人、1570人和1851人.结论:两模型均能合理地对流动人口结核病疫情进行预测,但动态等维递补GM(1,1)模型拟合效果优于普通的静态GM(1,1)模型;深圳市宝安区流动人口初治涂阳结核病人数在今后三年有明显增加趋势,结核病疫情形势严峻,需进一步加强流动人口结核病的防控.     

普陀山岛旅游生态安全发展趋势预测

科学地预测海岛目的地旅游生态安全发展趋势,对促进海岛旅游经济和生态环境协调发展具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。基于可持续发展的视角,建立了由承载力-支持力-吸引力-延续力和发展力(CSAED模型)子系统构成的普陀山旅游生态安全指标体系,并在灰色系统GM(1,1)模型和RBF神经网络模型比较选优的基础上,对普陀山岛旅游生态安全发展趋势进行了预测。研究结果表明:(1)和灰色系统GM(1,1)模型相比,RBF神经网络模型的Pearson相关系数和误差均方根值更优,可更精确地拟合普陀山岛旅游生态安全发展趋势;(2)2015—2020年,普陀山岛旅游生态安全指数的RBF神经网络模型预测结果由0.7017增加至0.8135,安全等级由比较安全上升至非常安全。研究结果可为维护普陀山岛旅游生态安全提供决策依据。     

GM(1,1)模型残差修正的探讨

近年来,灰色系统理论在农业病虫害预测中已得到广泛应用,其中最易为人接受的GM（1,1）模型已经在实践中取得可喜的成就。但是灰色系统理论作为一门新兴学科,在实际应用中,还有不少理论问题有待于研究。本文就GM（l,呈）预测模型建模过程中出现的有关残差修正问题作了如下有益的探讨。1GM（1,1）预测模型现以“褐稻虱灰色灾变长期预测初探”（吕雨土,昆虫知识26（5）：257～260）一文为例,加以说明。文章采用浙江街县1974～1986年晚稻田间揭稻虱发生量的历史资料,对原始资料规定加权平均最高时百丛虫量达2000只为灾年,不到刘如…     

灰色模型应用于估测落叶松林分生长量的研究

本文用灰色GM（1,1）模型对林分平均生长过程进行模拟,给出落叶松人工林林分在树高、胸径、材积3个指标上平均总生长量的灰色模型,经过检验,估测效果好．     

我国肺结核发病率的发展动向及预测研究

目的:揭示我国肺结核发病率的发展方向,为预防工作的顺利开展提供事前预测工具.方法:本文采用灰色GM(1,1)模型及其改进形式对过去十年我国肺结核发病率的统计数据加以分析处理,得到最优灰色模型,并通过该模型时我国未来几年肺结核发病率情况作出预测.结果:通过该最优模型时我国未来几年肺结核发病率的预测可知,若按照目前这种形势发展下,我国肺结核发病率将逐年升高,且在2013年将突破100/10万人次.结论:肺结核发病率在我国有上升的趋势,若不加以控制,将威胁整个民族的健康,加强基础卫生医疗设施的建设,完善医保体制改革,做到早发现、早治疗仍是我国未来几年控制肺结核的重点工作.     

广义岭回归在家禽育种值估计中的应用

讨论了岭回归方法应用于混合线性模型方程组中估计家禽育种值的方法,其实质是将传统的混合线性模型方程组理解为一种广义岭回归估计,为确定遗传参数的估计提供了一种途径;同时,以番鸭为例,考虑了一个性状和两个固定效应,采用广义岭回归法对公番鸭育种值进行了估计,并与最佳线性无偏预测法(BLUP 法)进行了比较,结果表明,广义岭回归方法和BLUP 法估计的育种值及其排序非常接近,其相关系数和秩相关系数分别达到了0.998~(**)和0.986~(**),且采用广义岭回归法预测的误差率低(在±10%以内);表明在混合线性模型方程组中使用广义岭回归估计动物育种值的方法具有可行性,并可省去估计遗传参数的过程,使BLUP 法在动物选育中的应用更具实用性.     

NPC1L1:固醇脂质吸收的关键蛋白质

NPC1L1是最近发现的一种与NPC1同源的蛋白质。在体内的分布有物种差异性,其亚细胞定位存在很大争议。近些年发现NPC1L1在固醇类脂质代谢途径中起着重要作用,是肠道吸收固醇类脂质尤其是胆固醇的关键蛋白质,这项新发现使得人们对固醇类脂质的吸收机制有了了解。高胆固醇血症是心血管系统疾病的一个高危因子,因此,对NPC1L1的研究具有重大的实际意义,正逐渐成为研究的热点。     

Stoichiometry studies reveal functional properties of KDC1 in plant shaker potassium channels

Functional heteromeric plant Shaker potassium channels can be formed by the assembly of subunits from different tissues, as well as from diverse plant species. KDC1 (K(+) Daucus carota 1) produces inward-rectifying currents in Xenopus oocytes when coexpressed with KAT1 and other subunits appertaining to different plant Shaker subfamilies. Owing to the presence of KDC1, resulting heteromeric channels display slower activation kinetics, a shift of the activation threshold toward more negative membrane potentials and current potentiation upon the addition of external zinc. Despite available information on heteromerization of plant Shaker channels, very little is known to date on the properties of the various stoichiometric configurations formed by different subunits. To investigate the functional properties of heteromeric nKDC1/mKAT1 configurations, we realized a series of dimeric constructs combining KDC1 and KAT1 alpha-subunits. We found that homomeric channels, formed by monomeric or dimeric alpha-subunit constructs, show identical biophysical characteristics. Coinjections of diverse tandem constructs, instead, displayed significantly different currents proving that KDC1 has high affinity for KAT1 and participates in the formation of functional channels with at most two KDC1 subunits, whereas three KDC1 subunits prevented the formation of functional channels. This article brings a contribution to the understanding of the molecular mechanisms regulating plant Shaker channel functionality by association of modulatory subunits.     

Variation in salinity tolerance and shoot sodium accumulation in Arabidopsis ecotypes linked to differences in the natural expression levels of transporters involved in sodium transport

Salinity tolerance can be attributed to three different mechanisms: Na⁺ exclusion from the shoot, Na⁺ tissue tolerance and osmotic tolerance. Although several key ion channels and transporters involved in these processes are known, the variation in expression profiles and the effects of these proteins on Na⁺ transport in different accessions of the same species are unknown. Here, expression profiles of the genes AtHKT1;1, AtSOS1, AtNHX1 and AtAVP1 are determined in four ecotypes of Arabidopsis thaliana. Not only are these genes differentially regulated between ecotypes, the expression levels of the genes can be linked to the concentration of Na⁺ in the plant. An inverse relationship was found between AtSOS1 expression in the root and total plant Na⁺ accumulation, supporting a role for AtSOS1 in Na⁺ efflux from the plant. Similarly, ecotypes with high expression levels of AtHKT1;1 in the root had lower shoot Na⁺ concentrations, due to the hypothesized role of AtHKT1;1 in retrieval of Na⁺ from the transpiration stream. The inverse relationship between shoot Na⁺ concentration and salinity tolerance typical of most cereal crop plants was not demonstrated, but a positive relationship was found between salt tolerance and levels of AtAVP1 expression, which may be related to tissue tolerance.     

人骨髓间充质干细胞向神经细胞分化过程中Notch通路信号分子表达的变化

本研究探讨Noah信号通路在人骨髓间充质干细胞（human mesenchymal stem cells,hMSCs）体外增殖及向神经细胞分化过程中的作用。采集健康自愿者骨髓,体外培养获得hMSCs,取第3代hMSCs,在诱导剂（β-ME,DMSO,BHA）作用下向神经细胞分化。诱导后用免疫细胞化学鉴定神经元特异性烯醇化酶（neuron-specific enolase,NSE）和尼氏体的表达以确定诱导效果：用流式细胞术检测细胞生长周期时相的变化。在诱导前后,用免疫荧光和RT-PCR方法检测Notch通路中Notch1受体蛋白、配体Jagged1（JAG1）、调节蛋白活化相关物早老素1（presenilin 1,PS1）、靶基因hairy and enhancer of split1（HES1）信号分子表达的变化。结果显示：诱导前,处于G0/G1期的hMSCs占58．5％,S＋G2/M期的细胞占41．5％;诱导后,G0/G1期细胞比例升高,而S＋G2/M期细胞比例下降,NSE阳性细胞率达（77±0．35）％,细胞质中可见深蓝色的块状或颗粒状尼氏体。免疫荧光显示,诱导前后hMSCs内Notch1和JAG1均呈阳性表达,但RT-PCR检测发现诱导后Notch1、JAG1、PSl和HES1 mRNA表达量较诱导前明显降低（均P〈0．05）。结果表明,诱导hMSCs向神经细胞分化能抑制Notch信号分子表达,低水平的Notch信号激活可能有利于神经细胞的分化。     

Carboxamide SIRT1 inhibitors block DBC1 binding via an acetylation-independent mechanism

SIRT1 is an NAD⁺-dependent deacetylase that counteracts multiple disease states associated with aging and may underlie some of the health benefits of calorie restriction. Understanding how SIRT1 is regulated in vivo could therefore lead to new strategies to treat age-related diseases. SIRT1 forms a stable complex with DBC1, an endogenous inhibitor. Little is known regarding the biochemical nature of SIRT1-DBC1 complex formation, how it is regulated and whether or not it is possible to block this interaction pharmacologically. In this study, we show that critical residues within the catalytic core of SIRT1 mediate binding to DBC1 via its N-terminal region, and that several carboxamide SIRT1 inhibitors, including EX-527, can completely block this interaction. We identify two acetylation sites on DBC1 that regulate its ability to bind SIRT1 and suppress its activity. Furthermore, we show that DBC1 itself is a substrate for SIRT1. Surprisingly, the effect of EX-527 on SIRT1-DBC1 binding is independent of DBC1 acetylation. Together, these data show that protein acetylation serves as an endogenous regulatory mechanism for SIRT1-DBC1 binding and illuminate a new path to developing small-molecule modulators of SIRT1.     

Enhancement of hepatic microsomal drug oxidation and glucuronidation in rat by 1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethane (DDT)

A single dose of 1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethane (DDT) (160 mg/kg i.p.) enhanced the monooxygenase step of drug biotransformation in rat liver. The O-demethylation of p-nitroanisole was especially increased, a peak in activity approximately 5-fold compared with controls being attained in 7 days. On the other hand, there was only a 2-fold increase in aryl hydrocarbon hydroxylase activity.DDT increased the cytochrome P-450 content of the liver, this increase coincided well with that in p-nitroanisole O-demethylation activity.The UDPglucuronosyltransferase activity of liver microsomes was not enhanced by DDT administration, unless the microsomes were pretreated to reveal latent activity prior to assay. After trypsin digestion of microsomes a maximum increase in activity of approximately 3-fold was observed as a result of DDT dosage. The canonic surfactant cetylpyridinium chloride was less active in revealing the latent UDP-glucuronosyltransferase activity, and two other membrane perturbants, the detergent digitonin and phospholipase A, were unable to show enhancement in UDPglucuronosyltransferase as a result of DDT dosage.     

CYP1A1基因单核苷酸多态性与肺癌的相关性研究

目的:探讨代谢酶CYP1A1基因MspI位点多态性与新疆汉族人群肺癌遗传易感性之间的相关性.方法:应用聚合酶链式反应(PCR)-限制性片段长度多态性(RFLP)技术检测59例新疆汉族肺癌和84例新疆汉族健康人的CYP1A1基因MspI位点多态性分布频率,并分析了CYP1A1基因MspI位点多态性与新疆汉族人群肺癌遗传易感性和患者性别之间的相关性.结果:(1)CYP1A1基因MspI位点3种多态基因型分布频率在两组间比较差异有统计学意义(χ2=6.682,P=0.035),CC基因型在病例组的分布频率显著高于正常对照组.(2)携带突变CC基因型的个体较携带TT基因型的个体患肺癌的危险性增加(OR=3.759.95%CI=1.228-11.494,P=0.035).(3)男女肺癌患者的CYP1A1基因MspI位点基因型及等位基因频率的差异均无显著性(P>0.05).结论:(1)CC突变基因型可能是新疆汉族人群的肺癌易感因素.(2)CYP1A1基因MspI位点多态性可能与新疆汉族肺癌患者的性别无关.     

粘膜系统鳞状细胞癌(SCC)相关蛋白(DCUN1D1)的表达、纯化和晶体生长

目的:SCCRO/RP42/DCUN1D1是粘膜系统鳞片状细胞癌(SCC)发生时人类基因组3q区域扩增的潜在靶标之一,其蛋白作用机制尚不清楚,本文拟通过表达并大量纯化SCC相关蛋白DCUN1D1用于蛋白结晶以求获得其三维结构。方法:使用人肝脑组织RNA反转录产物为模板扩增出DCUN1D1基因cDNA片断并将其克隆至原核表达载体PGEX-6P-1中,通过IPTG诱导获得大量可溶性表达,再经过GST亲和层析和Sephadex G-200层析柱纯化。结果:获得了纯度95%以上的蛋白,采用悬滴气相扩散法筛选蛋白晶体,获得显微镜下可见的微晶。结论:初步得出DCUN1D1晶体生长条件及范围,为解析DCUN1D1的三维结构并进一步认识其生物功能奠定了基础。