The curse of the pharaoh hypothesis.

The ''curse of the pharaoh'' has been used as a metaphor for the hypothesis that higher parasite propagule survival selects for higher virulence. Indeed, the mysterious death of Lord Carnavon after entering the tomb of the Egyptian pharaoh Tutankhamen could potentially be explained by an infection with a highly virulent and very long-lived pathogen. In this paper, I investigate whether parasite virulence increases with high propagule survival. In this respect, I derive an analytic expression of the evolutionarily stable level of parasite virulence as a function of propagule survival rate when the host-parasite system has reached a stable ecological equilibrium. This result shows that, if multiple infection occurs, higher propagule survival generally increases parasite virulence. This effect is enhanced when parasite dispersal coevolves with parasite virulence. In a more general perspective, the model shows the importance of taking into account the combination of direct and indirect effects (which I call inclusive effects) of higher transmission ability on the evolution of parasite virulence. The recognition of these effects has several practical implications for virulence management.     

Virulence evolution at the front line of spreading epidemics

Understanding and predicting the spatial spread of emerging pathogens is a major challenge for the public health management of infectious diseases. Theoretical epidemiology shows that the speed of an epidemic is governed by the life‐history characteristics of the pathogen and its ability to disperse. Rapid evolution of these traits during the invasion may thus affect the speed of epidemics. Here we study the influence of virulence evolution on the spatial spread of an epidemic. At the edge of the invasion front, we show that more virulent and transmissible genotypes are expected to win the competition with other pathogens. Behind the front line, however, more prudent exploitation strategies outcompete virulent pathogens. Crucially, even when the presence of the virulent mutant is limited to the edge of the front, the invasion speed can be dramatically altered by pathogen evolution. We support our analysis with individual‐based simulations and we discuss the additional effects of demographic stochasticity taking place at the front line on virulence evolution. We confirm that an increase of virulence can occur at the front, but only if the carrying capacity of the invading pathogen is large enough. These results are discussed in the light of recent empirical studies examining virulence evolution at the edge of spreading epidemics.     

Serial infection of diverse host (Mus) genotypes rapidly impedes pathogen fitness and virulence

Reduced genetic variation among hosts may favour the emergence of virulent infectious diseases by enhancing pathogen replication and its associated virulence due to adaptation to a limited set of host genotypes. Here, we test this hypothesis using experimental evolution of a mouse-specific retroviral pathogen, Friend virus (FV) complex. We demonstrate rapid fitness (i.e. viral titre) and virulence increases when FV complex serially infects a series of inbred mice representing the same genotype, but not when infecting a diverse array of inbred mouse strains modelling the diversity in natural host populations. Additionally, a single infection of a different host genotype was sufficient to constrain the emergence of a high fitness/high virulence FV complex phenotype in these experiments. The potent inhibition of viral fitness and virulence was associated with an observed loss of the defective retroviral genome (spleen focus-forming virus), whose presence exacerbates infection and drives disease in susceptible mice. Results from our experiments provide an important first step in understanding how genetic variation among vertebrate hosts influences pathogen evolution and suggests that serial exposure to different genotypes within a single host species may act as a constraint on pathogen adaptation that prohibits the emergence of more virulent infections. From a practical perspective, these results have implications for low-diversity host populations such as endangered species and domestic animals.     

LOCAL MALADAPTATION IN THE ANTHER-SMUT FUNGUS MICROBOTRYUM VIOLACEUM TO ITS HOST PLANT SILENE LATIFOLIA: EVIDENCE FROM A CROSS-INOCULATION EXPERIMENT

Conventional wisdom holds that parasites evolve more rapidly than their hosts and are therefore locally adapted, that is, better at exploiting sympatric than allopatric hosts. We studied local adaptation in the insect-transmitted fungal pathogen Microbotryum violaceum and its host plant Silene latifolia. Infection success was tested in sympatric (local) and allopatric (foreign) combinations of pathogen and host from 14 natural populations from a metapopulation. Seedlings from up to 10 seed families from each population were exposed to sporidial suspensions from each of four fungal strains derived from the same population, from a near-by population (< 10 km distance), and from two populations at an intermediate (< 30 km) and remote (< 170 km) distance, respectively. We obtained significant pathogen X plant interactions in infection success (proportion of diseased plants) at both fungal population and strain level. There was an overall pattern of local maladaptation of this pathogen: average fungal infection success was significantly lower on sympatric hosts (mean proportion of diseased plants = 0.32 ± 0.03 SE) than on allopatric hosts (0.40 ± 0.02). Five of the 14 fungal populations showed no strong reduction in infection success on sympatric hosts, and three even tended to perform better on sympatric hosts. This pattern is consistent with models of time-lagged cycles predicting patterns of local adaptation in host-parasite systems to emerge only on average. Several factors may restrict the evolutionary potential of this pathogen relative to that of its host. First, a predominantly selfing breeding system may limit its ability to generate new virulence types by sexual recombination, whereas the obligately outcrossing host 5. latifolia may profit from rearrangement of resistance alleles by random mating. Second, populations often harbor only a few infected individuals, so virulence variation may be further reduced by drift. Third, migration rates among host plant populations are much higher than among pathogen populations, possibly because pollinators prefer healthy over diseased plants. Migration among partly isolated populations may therefore introduce novel host plant resistance variants more often than novel parasite virulence variants. That migration contributes to the coevolutionary dynamics in this system is supported by the geographic pattern of infectivity. Infection success increased over the first 10–km range of host-pathogen population distances, which is likely the natural range of gene exchange.     

Do pathogens become more virulent as they spread? Evidence from the amphibian declines in Central America

The virulence of a pathogen can vary strongly through time. While cyclical variation in virulence is regularly observed, directional shifts in virulence are less commonly observed and are typically associated with decreasing virulence of biological control agents through coevolution. It is increasingly appreciated, however, that spatial effects can lead to evolutionary trajectories that differ from standard expectations. One such possibility is that, as a pathogen spreads through a naive host population, its virulence increases on the invasion front. In Central America, there is compelling evidence for the recent spread of pathogenic Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and for its strong impact on amphibian populations. Here, we re-examine data on Bd prevalence and amphibian population decline across 13 sites from southern Mexico through Central America, and show that, in the initial phases of the Bd invasion, amphibian population decline lagged approximately 9 years behind the arrival of the pathogen, but that this lag diminished markedly over time. In total, our analysis suggests an increase in Bd virulence as it spread southwards, a pattern consistent with rapid evolution of increased virulence on Bd''s invading front. The impact of Bd on amphibians might therefore be driven by rapid evolution in addition to more proximate environmental drivers.     

Host genotype and genetic diversity shape the evolution of a novel bacterial infection

Pathogens continue to emerge from increased contact with novel host species. Whilst these hosts can represent distinct environments for pathogens, the impacts of host genetic background on how a pathogen evolves post-emergence are unclear. In a novel interaction, we experimentally evolved a pathogen (Staphylococcus aureus) in populations of wild nematodes (Caenorhabditis elegans) to test whether host genotype and genetic diversity affect pathogen evolution. After ten rounds of selection, we found that pathogen virulence evolved to vary across host genotypes, with differences in host metal ion acquisition detected as a possible driver of increased host exploitation. Diverse host populations selected for the highest levels of pathogen virulence, but infectivity was constrained, unlike in host monocultures. We hypothesise that population heterogeneity might pool together individuals that contribute disproportionately to the spread of infection or to enhanced virulence. The genomes of evolved populations were sequenced, and it was revealed that pathogens selected in distantly-related host genotypes diverged more than those in closely-related host genotypes. S. aureus nevertheless maintained a broad host range. Our study provides unique empirical insight into the evolutionary dynamics that could occur in other novel infections of wildlife and humans.Subject terms: Molecular evolution, Bacterial evolution, Bacterial genetics     

Local adaptation in the Linum marginale-Melampsora lini host-pathogen interaction

The potential for local adaptation between pathogens and their hosts has generated strong theoretical and empirical interest with evidence both for and against local adaptation reported for a range of systems. We use the Linum marginale-Melampsora lini plant-pathogen system and a hierarchical spatial structure to investigate patterns of local adaptation within a metapopulation characterised by epidemic dynamics and frequent extinction of pathogen populations. Based on large sample sizes and comprehensive cross-inoculation trials, our analyses demonstrate strong local adaptation by Melampsora to its host populations, with this effect being greatest at regional scales, as predicted from the broader spatial scales at which M. lini disperses relative to L. marginale. However, there was no consistent trend for more distant pathogen populations to perform more poorly. Our results further show how the coevolutionary interaction between hosts and pathogens can be influenced by local structure such that resistant hosts select for generally virulent pathogens, while susceptible hosts select for more avirulent pathogens. Empirically, local adaptation has generally been tested in two contrasting ways: (1) pathogen performance on sympatric versus allopatric hosts; and (2) sympatric versus allopatric pathogens on a given host population. In situations where no host population is more resistant or susceptible than others when averaged across pathogen populations (and likewise, no pathogen population is more virulent or avirulent than others), results from these tests should generally be congruent. We argue that this is unlikely to be the case in the metapopulation situations that predominate in natural host-pathogen interactions, thus requiring tests that control simultaneously for variation in plant and pathogen populations.     

Fungal multilocus sequence typing--it's not just for bacteria

Multilocus sequence typing uses nucleotide sequence from several genes to identify individual microbial pathogens. The data obtained for multilocus sequence typing can be used to recognize fungal species and to determine if the fungi are purely clonal, or if they also recombine. Genetic regions with more polymorphisms and microsatellites might be used to recognize populations within species and are well suited to Bayesian methods of assigning unknown individuals to populations of origin. Knowledge of species, populations and reproductive mode can help answer questions common to all emerging diseases: is the disease due to the recent spread of a pathogen, to the emergence of a virulent strain of an existing pathogen, or to a change in the environment that promotes disease?     

Spatially structured superinfection and the evolution of disease virulence

When pathogen strains differing in virulence compete for hosts, spatial structuring of disease transmission can govern both evolved levels of virulence and patterns in strain coexistence. We develop a spatially detailed model of superinfection, a form of contest competition between pathogen strains; the probability of superinfection depends explicitly on the difference in levels of virulence. We apply methods of adaptive dynamics to address the interplay of spatial dynamics and evolution. The mean-field approximation predicts evolution to criticality; any small increase in virulence capable of dynamical persistence is favored. Both pair approximation and simulation of the detailed model indicate that spatial structure constrains disease virulence. Increased spatial clustering reduces the maximal virulence capable of single-strain persistence and, more importantly, reduces the convergent-stable virulence level under strain competition. The spatially detailed model predicts that increasing the probability of superinfection, for given difference in virulence, increases the likelihood of between-strain coexistence. When strains differing in virulence can coexist ecologically, our results may suggest policies for managing diseases with localized transmission. Comparing equilibrium densities from the pair approximation, we find that introducing a more virulent strain into a host population infected by a less virulent strain can sometimes reduce total host mortality and increase global host density.     

The aerobiology of Fusarium graminearum

Current knowledge of the aerobiology of Fusarium graminearum sensu lato is based on decades of published research documenting the processes of spore discharge, atmospheric transport, and deposition in this important pathogen of cereal crops worldwide. Spores from both local and more distant sources have been shown to cause infection in susceptible cereal crops when environmental conditions are favorable. Susceptible crops may be exposed throughout a growing season to airborne spores deposited in rain events and in night-time hours through gravitational settling. Given that spores deposited on cereal florets originate from distant as well as local sources, disease risk forecasts, based currently on weather favoring local spore production during the days before peak infection (i.e., initiation of crop flowering), might be improved by placing greater emphasis on local weather directly favoring infection at and following the time of flowering. Also, considering the genetic diversity of fungal spores introduced to local agricultural fields following atmospheric transport, crop breeders should select resistant varieties based on screening against a set of fungal isolates that represent the range of virulence observed in fungal populations across a broader geographic region. An increased understanding of the aerobiology of F. graminearum contributes to the overall knowledge of plant pathogen transport in the atmosphere.     

Trade-off between virulence and vertical transmission and the maintenance of a virulent plant pathogen

The continuum hypothesis predicts that parasites should evolve reduced virulence if they have higher opportunity for vertical transmission. However, when there is a trade-off between virulence and vertical transmission, selection may favor horizontal transmission and higher virulence. Atkinsonella hypoxylon is a fungal pathogen that reduces Danthonia fitness by 50% or more when it completely castrates hosts' chasmogamous inflorescences, despite the high opportunity for vertical transmission through cleistogamous seeds. Sporadically, infected hosts with partially castrated inflorescences (which have higher fecundity than completely castrated hosts) are observed in natural populations. Why are partially castrated plants rare if selection favors reduced virulence? We investigated whether there was genetic diversity for virulence among A. hypoxylon genotypes and the relationship between virulence and vertical transmission. We found that the fungal genotype significantly affects the occurrence of partial castration in Danthonia compressa. The proportion of seedlings that were vertically infected by their maternal plant was lower for partially castrated than for completely castrated plants. Our results demonstrate a trade-off between virulence and vertical transmission, explaining the maintenance of more virulent, completely castrating fungal genotypes in natural populations, and suggest that vertical transmission in plants is more complex than what is considered in current models.     

Within-host competition in genetically diverse malaria infections: parasite virulence and competitive success

Humans and animals often become coinfected with pathogen strains that differ in virulence. The ensuing interaction between these strains can, in theory, be a major determinant of the direction of selection on virulence genes in pathogen populations. Many mathematical analyses of this assume that virulent pathogen lineages have a competitive advantage within coinfected hosts and thus predict that pathogens will evolve to become more virulent where genetically diverse infections are common. Although the implications of these studies are relevant to both fundamental biology and medical science, direct empirical tests for relationships between virulence and competitive ability are lacking. Here we use newly developed strain-specific real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction protocols to determine the pairwise competitiveness of genetically divergent Plasmodium chabaudi clones that represent a wide range of innate virulences in their rodent host. We found that even against their background of widely varying genotypic and antigenic properties, virulent clones had a competitive advantage in the acute phase of mixed infections. The more virulent a clone was relative to its competitor, the less it suffered from competition. This result confirms our earlier work with parasite lines derived from a single clonal lineage by serial passage and supports the virulence-competitive ability assumption of many theoretical models. To the extent that our rodent model captures the essence of the natural history of malaria parasites, public health interventions which reduce the incidence of mixed malaria infections should have beneficial consequences by reducing the selection for high virulence.     

Emergence and prevalence of human vector-borne diseases in sink vector populations

Vector-borne diseases represent a major public health concern in most tropical and subtropical areas, and an emerging threat for more developed countries. Our understanding of the ecology, evolution and control of these diseases relies predominantly on theory and data on pathogen transmission in large self-sustaining 'source' populations of vectors representative of highly endemic areas. However, there are numerous places where environmental conditions are less favourable to vector populations, but where immigration allows them to persist. We built an epidemiological model to investigate the dynamics of six major human vector borne-diseases in such non self-sustaining 'sink' vector populations. The model was parameterized through a review of the literature, and we performed extensive sensitivity analysis to look at the emergence and prevalence of the pathogen that could be encountered in these populations. Despite the low vector abundance in typical sink populations, all six human diseases were able to spread in 15-55% of cases after accidental introduction. The rate of spread was much more strongly influenced by vector longevity, immigration and feeding rates, than by transmission and virulence of the pathogen. Prevalence in humans remained lower than 5% for dengue, leishmaniasis and Japanese encephalitis, but substantially higher for diseases with longer duration of infection; malaria and the American and African trypanosomiasis. Vector-related parameters were again the key factors, although their influence was lower than on pathogen emergence. Our results emphasize the need for ecology and evolution to be thought in the context of metapopulations made of a mosaic of sink and source habitats, and to design vector control program not only targeting areas of high vector density, but working at a larger spatial scale.     

Exploration of Modulated Genetic Circuits Governing Virulence Determinants in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Staphylococcus aureus</Emphasis>

The expression of virulence genes in the human pathogen Staphylococcus aureus is strongly influenced by the multiple global regulators. The signal transduction cascade of these global regulators is accountable for recognizing and integrating the environmental cues to regulate the virulence regulon. While the production of virulent factors by individual global regulators are comparatively straightforward to define, auto-regulation of these global regulators and their impact on other regulators is more complex process. There are several reports on the production of virulent factors that are precisely regulated by switching processes of multiple global regulators including some prominent accessory regulators such as agr, sae and sar which allows S. aureus to coordinate the gene expression, and thus, provide organism an ability to act collectively. This review implicates the mechanisms involved in the global regulation of various virulence factors along with a comprehensive discussion on the differences between these signal transduction systems, their auto-induction and, coordination of classical and some comparatively new bacterial signal transduction systems.     

Mechanisms of Pathogenesis, Infective Dose and Virulence in Human Parasites

The number of pathogens that are required to infect a host, termed infective dose, varies dramatically across pathogen species. It has recently been predicted that infective dose will depend upon the mode of action of the molecules that pathogens use to facilitate their infection. Specifically, pathogens which use locally acting molecules will require a lower infective dose than pathogens that use distantly acting molecules. Furthermore, it has also been predicted that pathogens with distantly acting immune modulators may be more virulent because they have a large number of cells in the inoculums, which will cause more harm to host cells. We formally test these predictions for the first time using data on 43 different human pathogens from a range of taxonomic groups with diverse life-histories. We found that pathogens using local action do have lower infective doses, but are not less virulent than those using distant action. Instead, we found that virulence was negatively correlated with infective dose, and higher in pathogens infecting wounded skin, compared with those ingested or inhaled. More generally, our results show that broad-scale comparative analyses can explain variation in parasite traits such as infective dose and virulence, whilst highlighting the importance of mechanistic details.     

Mixed infections alter transmission potential in a fungal plant pathogen

Infections by more than one strain of a pathogen predominate under natural conditions. Mixed infections can have significant, though often unpredictable, consequences for overall virulence, pathogen transmission and evolution. However, effects of mixed infection on disease development in plants often remain unclear and the critical factors that determine the outcome of mixed infections remain unknown. The fungus Zymoseptoria tritici forms genetically diverse infections in wheat fields. Here, for a range of pathogen traits, we experimentally decompose the infection process to determine how the outcomes and consequences of mixed infections are mechanistically realized. Different strains of Z. tritici grow in close proximity and compete in the wheat apoplast, resulting in reductions in growth of individual strains and in pathogen reproduction. We observed different outcomes of competition at different stages of the infection. Overall, more virulent strains had higher competitive ability during host colonization, and less virulent strains had higher transmission potential. We showed that within-host competition can have a major effect on infection dynamics and pathogen population structure in a pathogen and host genotype-specific manner. Consequently, mixed infections likely have a major effect on the development of septoria tritici blotch epidemics and the evolution of virulence in Z. tritici.     

Host sexual dimorphism affects the outcome of within‐host pathogen competition

Natural infections often consist of multiple pathogens of the same or different species. When coinfections occur, pathogens compete for access to host resources and fitness is determined by how well a pathogen can reproduce compared to its competitors. Yet not all hosts provide the same resource pool. Males and females, in particular, commonly vary in both their acquisition of resources and investment in immunity, but their ability to modify any competition between different pathogens remains unknown. Using the Daphnia magna–Pasteuria ramosa model system, we exposed male and female hosts to either a single genotype infection or coinfections consisting of two pathogen genotypes of varying levels of virulence. We found that coinfections within females favored the transmission of the more virulent pathogen genotype, whereas coinfections within male hosts resulted in equal transmission of competing pathogen genotypes. This contrast became less pronounced when the least virulent pathogen was able to establish an infection first, suggesting that the influence of host sex is shaped by priority effects. We suggest that sex is a form of host heterogeneity that may influence the evolution of virulence within coinfection contexts and that one sex may be a reservoir for pathogen genetic diversity in nature.     

The evolution of parasite virulence and transmission rate in a spatially structured population

If the transmission occurs through local contact of the individuals in a spatially structured population, the evolutionarily stable (ESS) traits of parasite might be quite different from what the classical theory with complete mixing predicts. In this paper, we theoretically study the ESS virulence and transmission rate of a parasite in a lattice-structured host population, in which the host can send progeny only to its neighboring vacant site, and the transmission occurs only in between the infected and the susceptible in the nearest-neighbor sites. Infected host is assumed to be infertile. The analysis based on the pair approximation and the Monte Carlo simulation reveal that the ESS transmission rate and virulence in a lattice-structured population are greatly reduced from those in completely mixing population. Unlike completely mixing populations, the spread of parasite can drive the host to extinction, because the local density of the susceptible next to the infected can remain high even when the global density of host becomes very low. This demographic viscosity and group selection between self-organized spatial clusters of host individuals then leads to an intermediate ESS transmission rate even if there is no tradeoff between transmission rate and virulence. The ESS transmission rate is below the region of parasite-driven extinction by a finite amount for moderately large reproductive rate of host; whereas, the evolution of transmission rate leads to the fade out of parasite for small reproductive rate, and the extinction of host for very large reproductive rate.     

The Evolution of Virulence in RNA Viruses under a Competition–Colonization Trade-Off

RNA viruses exist in large intra-host populations which display great genotypic and phenotypic diversity. We analyze a model of viral competition between two viruses infecting a constantly replenished cell pool. We assume a trade-off between the ability of the virus to colonize new cells (cell killing rate or virulence) and its local competitiveness (replicative success within coinfected cells). We characterize the conditions that allow for viral spread by means of the basic reproductive number and show that a local coexistence equilibrium exists, which is asymptotically stable. At this equilibrium, the less virulent competitor has a reproductive advantage over the more virulent colonizer reflected by a larger equilibrium population size of the competitor. The equilibria at which one virus outcompetes the other one are unstable, i.e., a second virus is always able to permanently invade. We generalize the two-virus model to multiple viral strains, each displaying a different virulence. To account for the large phenotypic diversity in viral populations, we consider a continuous spectrum of virulences and present a continuum limit of this multiple viral strains model that describes the time evolution of an initial continuous distribution of virulence without mutations. We provide a proof of the existence of solutions of the model equations, analytically assess the properties of stationary solutions, and present numerical approximations of solutions for different initial distributions. Our simulations suggest that initial continuous distributions of virulence evolve toward a distribution that is extremely skewed in favor of competitors. At equilibrium, only the least virulent part of the population survives. The discrepancy of this finding in the continuum limit with the two-virus model is attributed to the skewed equilibrium subpopulation sizes and to the transition to a continuum. Consequently, in viral quasispecies with high virulence diversity, the model predicts collective virulence attenuation. This result may contribute to understanding virulence attenuation, which has been reported in several experimental studies.