Simulating Regional Vegetation‐climate Dynamics for Middle America: Tropical Versus Temperate Applications

Regional vegetation‐climate modelling studies have typically focused on boreal or temperate ecosystems in North America and Europe, almost completely overlooking tropical ecosystems. We present the first results of simulated regional vegetation‐climate dynamics in Middle America as simulated by the model, LPJ‐GUESS. The Kappa statistic indicated poor agreement, with a Kappa value of 0.301. When we modified the Kappa statistic by aggregating cell sizes and using generalized biomes, the Kappa value increased to 0.543, indicating a fair agreement. Total LAI simulated from LPJ‐GUESS was strongly correlated to remotely sensed LAI values (r = 0.75). Our simulations indicate that fire frequency was overestimated in tropical moist forests and underestimated in savannas. This underestimation of fire resulted in an over‐simulation of dry tropical forest at the expense of savanna. We highlight additional reasons for the initially poor representation of vegetation in Middle America, including factors such as non‐parameterized plant functional types (desert shrub, cacti, and other succulents), rugged topography, and an insufficient representation of soil.     

Leaf area index and net primary productivity along subtropical to alpine gradients in the Tibetan Plateau

Aim Our aims were to quantify climatic and soil controls on net primary productivity (NPP) and leaf area index (LAI) along subtropical to alpine gradients where the vegetation remains relatively undisturbed, and investigate whether NPP and LAI converge towards threshold‐like logistic patterns associated with climatic and soil variables that would help us to verify and parameterize process models for predicting future ecosystem behaviour under global environmental change. Location Field data were collected from 22 sites along the Tibetan Alpine Vegetation Transects (TAVT) during 1999–2000. The TAVT included the altitudinal transect on the eastern slope of the Gongga Mountains in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau, with altitudes from 1900 m to 3700 m, and the longitudinal‐latitudinal transect in the Central Tibetan Plateau, of approximately 1000 km length and 40 km width. Methods LAI was measured as the product of foliage biomass multiplied by the ratio of specific leaf area. NPP in forests and shrub communities was estimated as the sum of increases in standing crops of live vegetation using recent stem growth rate and leaf lifespan. NPP in grasslands was estimated from the above‐ground maximum live biomass. We measured the soil organic carbon (C) and total and available nitrogen (N) contents and their pool sizes by conventional methods. Mean temperatures for the year, January and July and annual precipitation were estimated from available meteorological stations by interpolation or simulation. The threshold‐like logistic function was used to model the relationships of LAI and NPP with climatic and soil variables. Results Geographically, NPP and LAI both significantly decreased with increasing latitude (P < 0.02), but increased with increasing longitude (P < 0.01). Altitudinal trends in NPP and LAI showed different patterns. NPP generally decreased with increasing altitude in a linear relationship (r² = 0.73, P < 0.001), whereas LAI showed a negative quadratic relationship with altitude (r² = 0.58, P < 0.001). Temperature and precipitation, singly or in combination, explained 60–68% of the NPP variation with logistic relationships, while the soil organic C and total N variables explained only 21–46% of the variation with simple linear regressions of log‐transformed data. LAI showed significant logistic relationships with both climatic and soil variables, but the data from alpine spruce‐fir sites diverged greatly from the modelled patterns associated with temperature and precipitation. Soil organic C storage had the strongest correlation with LAI (r² = 0.68, P < 0.001). Main conclusions In response to climatic gradients along the TAVT, LAI and NPP across diverse vegetation types converged towards threshold‐like logistic patterns consistent with the general distribution patterns of live biomass both above‐ground and below‐ground found in our earlier studies. Our analysis further revealed that climatic factors strongly limited the NPP variations along the TAVT because the precipitation gradient characterized not only the vegetation distribution but also the soil N conditions of the natural ecosystems. LAI generally increased with increasing precipitation and was well correlated with soil organic C and total N variables. The interaction between LAI growth and soil N availability would appear to have important implications for ecosystem structure and function of alpine spruce‐fir forests. Convergence towards logistic patterns in dry matter production of plants in the TAVT suggests that alpine plant growth would increase in a nonlinear response to global warming.     

Land‐use change outweighs projected effects of changing rainfall on tree cover in sub‐Saharan Africa

Global change will likely affect savanna and forest structure and distributions, with implications for diversity within both biomes. Few studies have examined the impacts of both expected precipitation and land use changes on vegetation structure in the future, despite their likely severity. Here, we modeled tree cover in sub‐Saharan Africa, as a proxy for vegetation structure and land cover change, using climatic, edaphic, and anthropic data (R² = 0.97). Projected tree cover for the year 2070, simulated using scenarios that include climate and land use projections, generally decreased, both in forest and savanna, although the directionality of changes varied locally. The main driver of tree cover changes was land use change; the effects of precipitation change were minor by comparison. Interestingly, carbon emissions mitigation via increasing biofuels production resulted in decreases in tree cover, more severe than scenarios with more intense precipitation change, especially within savannas. Evaluation of tree cover change against protected area extent at the WWF Ecoregion scale suggested areas of high biodiversity and ecosystem services concern. Those forests most vulnerable to large decreases in tree cover were also highly protected, potentially buffering the effects of global change. Meanwhile, savannas, especially where they immediately bordered forests (e.g. West and Central Africa), were characterized by a dearth of protected areas, making them highly vulnerable. Savanna must become an explicit policy priority in the face of climate and land use change if conservation and livelihoods are to remain viable into the next century.     

Implications of future climate and atmospheric CO2 content for regional biogeochemistry,biogeography and ecosystem services across East Africa

We model future changes in land biogeochemistry and biogeography across East Africa. East Africa is one of few tropical regions where general circulation model (GCM) future climate projections exhibit a robust response of strong future warming and general annual‐mean rainfall increases. Eighteen future climate projections from nine GCMs participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment were used as input to the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), which predicted vegetation patterns and carbon storage in agreement with satellite observations and forest inventory data under the present‐day climate. All simulations showed future increases in tropical woody vegetation over the region at the expense of grasslands. Regional increases in net primary productivity (NPP) (18–36%) and total carbon storage (3–13%) by 2080–2099 compared with the present‐day were common to all simulations. Despite decreases in soil carbon after 2050, seven out of nine simulations continued to show an annual net land carbon sink in the final decades of the 21st century because vegetation biomass continued to increase. The seasonal cycles of rainfall and soil moisture show future increases in wet season rainfall across the GCMs with generally little change in dry season rainfall. Based on the simulated present‐day climate and its future trends, the GCMs can be grouped into four broad categories. Overall, our model results suggest that East Africa, a populous and economically poor region, is likely to experience some ecosystem service benefits through increased precipitation, river runoff and fresh water availability. Resulting enhancements in NPP may lead to improved crop yields in some areas. Our results stand in partial contradiction to other studies that suggest possible negative consequences for agriculture, biodiversity and other ecosystem services caused by temperature increases.     

A biogeochemistry‐based dynamic vegetation model and its application along a moisture gradient in the continental United States

Abstract. We develop and evaluate a large‐scale dynamic vegetation model, TEM‐LPJ, which considers interactions among water, light and nitrogen in simulating ecosystem function and structure. We parameterized the model for three plant functional types (PFTs): a temperate deciduous forest, a temperate coniferous forest, and a temperate C₃ grassland. Model parameters were determined using data from forest stands at the Harvard Forest in Massachusetts. Applications of the model reasonably simulated stand development over 120 yr for Populus tremuloides in Wisconsin and for Pinus elliottii in Florida. Our evaluation of tree‐grass interactions simulated by the model indicated that competition for light led to dominance by the deciduous forest PFT in moist regions of eastern United States and that water competition led to dominance by the grass PFT in dry regions of the central United States. Along a moisture transect at 41.5° N in the eastern United States, simulations by TEM‐LPJ reproduced the composition of potential temperate deciduous forest, temperate savanna, and C3 grassland located along the transect.     

Global synthesis of leaf area index observations: implications for ecological and remote sensing studies

Aim We present the first global synthesis of plant canopy leaf area index (LAI) measurements from more than 1000 published estimates representing ～400 unique field sites. LAI is a key variable for regional and global models of biosphere‐atmosphere exchanges of energy, carbon dioxide, water vapour, and other materials. Location The location is global, geographically distributed. Results Biomes with LAI values well represented in the literature included croplands, forests and plantations. Biomes not well represented were deserts, shrublands, tundra and wetlands. Nearly 40% of the records in the database were published in the past 10 years (1991–2000), with a further 20% collected between 1981 and 1990. Mean (± SD) LAI, distributed between 15 biome classes, ranged from 1.3 ± 0.9 for deserts to 8.7 ± 4.3 for tree plantations, with temperate evergreen forests (needleleaf and broadleaf) displaying the highest average LAI (5.1–6.7) among the natural terrestrial vegetation classes. Following a statistical outlier analysis, the global mean (± SD) LAI decreased from 5.2 (4.1) to 4.5 (2.5), with a maximum LAI of 18. Biomes with the highest LAI values were plantations > temperate evergreen forests > wetlands. Those with the lowest LAI values were deserts < grasslands < tundra. Mean LAI values for all biomes did not differ statistically by the methodology employed. Direct and indirect measurement approaches produced similar LAI results. Mean LAI values for all biomes combined decreased significantly in the 1990s, a period of substantially more studies and improved methodologies. Main conclusions Applications of the LAI database span a wide range of ecological, biogeochemical, physical, and climate research areas. The data provide input to terrestrial ecosystem and land‐surface models, for evaluation of global remote sensing products, for comparisons to field studies, and other applications. Example uses of the database for global plant productivity, fractional energy absorption, and remote sensing studies are highlighted.     

Biomes of western North America at 18,000, 6000 and 0 14C yr bp reconstructed from pollen and packrat midden data

A new compilation of pollen and packrat midden data from western North America provides a refined reconstruction of the composition and distribution of biomes in western North America for today and for 6000 and 18,000 radiocarbon years before present (¹⁴C yr bp ). Modern biomes in western North America are adequately portrayed by pollen assemblages from lakes and bogs. Forest biomes in western North America share many taxa in their pollen spectra and it can be difficult to discriminate among these biomes. Plant macrofossils from packrat middens provide reliable identification of modern biomes from arid and semiarid regions, and this may also be true in similar environments in other parts of the world. However, a weighting factor for trees and shrubs must be used to reliably reconstruct modern biomes from plant macrofossils. A new biome, open conifer woodland, which includes eurythermic conifers and steppe plants, was defined to categorize much of the current and past vegetation of the semiarid interior of western North America. At 6000 ¹⁴C yr bp , the forest biomes of the coastal Pacific North‐west and the desert biomes of the South‐west were in near‐modern positions. Biomes in the interior Pacific North‐west differed from those of today in that taiga prevailed in modern cool/cold mixed forests. Steppe was present in areas occupied today by open conifer woodland in the northern Great Basin, while in the central and southern Rocky Mountains forests grew where steppe grows today. During the mid‐Holocene, cool conifer forests were expanded in the Rocky Mountains (relative to today) but contracted in the Sierra Nevada. These differences from the forests of today imply different climatic histories in these two regions between 6000 ¹⁴C yr bp and today. At 18,000 ¹⁴C yr bp , deserts were absent from the South‐west and the coverage of open conifer woodland was greatly expanded relative to today. Steppe and tundra were present in much of the region now covered by forests in the Pacific North‐west.     

Mid-Holocene and glacial-maximum vegetation geography of the northern continents and Africa

BIOME 6000 is an international project to map vegetation globally at mid‐Holocene (6000 ¹⁴C yr bp ) and last glacial maximum (LGM, 18,000 ¹⁴C yr bp ), with a view to evaluating coupled climate‐biosphere model results. Primary palaeoecological data are assigned to biomes using an explicit algorithm based on plant functional types. This paper introduces the second Special Feature on BIOME 6000. Site‐based global biome maps are shown with data from North America, Eurasia (except South and Southeast Asia) and Africa at both time periods. A map based on surface samples shows the method’s skill in reconstructing present‐day biomes. Cold and dry conditions at LGM favoured extensive tundra and steppe. These biomes intergraded in northern Eurasia. Northern hemisphere forest biomes were displaced southward. Boreal evergreen forests (taiga) and temperate deciduous forests were fragmented, while European and East Asian steppes were greatly extended. Tropical moist forests (i.e. tropical rain forest and tropical seasonal forest) in Africa were reduced. In south‐western North America, desert and steppe were replaced by open conifer woodland, opposite to the general arid trend but consistent with modelled southward displacement of the jet stream. The Arctic forest limit was shifted slighly north at 6000 ¹⁴C yr bp in some sectors, but not in all. Northern temperate forest zones were generally shifted greater distances north. Warmer winters as well as summers in several regions are required to explain these shifts. Temperate deciduous forests in Europe were greatly extended, into the Mediterranean region as well as to the north. Steppe encroached on forest biomes in interior North America, but not in central Asia. Enhanced monsoons extended forest biomes in China inland and Sahelian vegetation into the Sahara while the African tropical rain forest was also reduced, consistent with a modelled northward shift of the ITCZ and a more seasonal climate in the equatorial zone. Palaeobiome maps show the outcome of separate, independent migrations of plant taxa in response to climate change. The average composition of biomes at LGM was often markedly different from today. Refugia for the temperate deciduous and tropical rain forest biomes may have existed offshore at LGM, but their characteristic taxa also persisted as components of other biomes. Examples include temperate deciduous trees that survived in cool mixed forest in eastern Europe, and tropical evergreen trees that survived in tropical seasonal forest in Africa. The sequence of biome shifts during a glacial‐interglacial cycle may help account for some disjunct distributions of plant taxa. For example, the now‐arid Saharan mountains may have linked Mediterranean and African tropical montane floras during enhanced monsoon regimes. Major changes in physical land‐surface conditions, shown by the palaeobiome data, have implications for the global climate. The data can be used directly to evaluate the output of coupled atmosphere‐biosphere models. The data could also be objectively generalized to yield realistic gridded land‐surface maps, for use in sensitivity experiments with atmospheric models. Recent analyses of vegetation‐climate feedbacks have focused on the hypothesized positive feedback effects of climate‐induced vegetation changes in the Sahara/Sahel region and the Arctic during the mid‐Holocene. However, a far wider spectrum of interactions potentially exists and could be investigated, using these data, both for 6000 ¹⁴C yr bp and for the LGM.     

Impacts of climate change on the vegetation of Africa: an adaptive dynamic vegetation modelling approach

Recent IPCC projections suggest that Africa will be subject to particularly severe changes in atmospheric conditions. How the vegetation of Africa and particularly the grassland–savanna–forest complex will respond to these changes has rarely been investigated. Most studies on global carbon cycles use vegetation models that do not adequately account for the complexity of the interactions that shape the distribution of tropical grasslands, savannas and forests. This casts doubt on their ability to reliably simulate the future vegetation of Africa. We present a new vegetation model, the adaptive dynamic global vegetation model (aDGVM) that was specifically developed for tropical vegetation. The aDGVM combines established components from existing DGVMs with novel process‐based and adaptive modules for phenology, carbon allocation and fire within an individual‐based framework. Thus, the model allows vegetation to adapt phenology, allocation and physiology to changing environmental conditions and disturbances in a way not possible in models based on fixed functional types. We used the model to simulate the current vegetation patterns of Africa and found good agreement between model projections and vegetation maps. We simulated vegetation in absence of fire and found that fire suppression strongly influences tree dominance at the regional scale while at a continental scale fire suppression increases biomass in vegetation by a more modest 13%. Simulations under elevated temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations predicted longer growing periods, higher allocation to roots, higher fecundity, more biomass and a dramatic shift toward tree dominated biomes. Our analyses suggest that the CO₂ fertilization effect is not saturated at ambient CO₂ levels and will strongly increase in response to further increases in CO₂ levels. The model provides a general and flexible framework for describing vegetation response to the interactive effects of climate and disturbances.     

Effects of precipitation and soil water potential on drought deciduous phenology in the Kalahari

We utilized an ecosystem process model to investigate the influence of precipitation and soil water potential on vegetation phenology in the semi‐arid, drought‐deciduous ecosystems in the Kalahari region of South Africa. The timing of leaf flush was assumed to be the first day during which a rainfall event exceeded that day's estimate of potential evapotranspiration after a defined dry season. Leaf senescence was assumed to be a dynamic feedback between soil water potential and net plant carbon gain and was determined by dynamically modeling the effects of concomitant trends in soil water potential and net primary production on leaf area index (LAI). Model predictions of LAI were compared with satellite‐derived normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI) for 3 years at two sites along the Kalahari transect. The mean absolute error for the prediction of modeled leaf flush date compared with leaf flush dates estimated from NDVI were 10.0 days for the Maun site and 39.3 days for the Tshane site. Correlations between model predicted 10‐day average LAI and 10‐day composite NDVI for both Maun and Tshane were high (ρ=0.67 and 0.74, respectively, P<0.001), suggesting that this method adequately predicts intra‐annual leaf area dynamics in these dry tropical ecosystems.     

Pollen-based reconstructions of Japanese biomes at 0, 6000 and 18,000 14C yr bp

A biomization method, which objectively assigns individual pollen assemblages to biomes ( Prentice et al., 1996 ), was tested using modern pollen data from Japan and applied to fossil pollen data to reconstruct palaeovegetation patterns 6000 and 18,000 ¹⁴C yr bp Biomization started with the assignment of 135 pollen taxa to plant functional types (PFTs), and nine possible biomes were defined by specific combinations of PFTs. Biomes were correctly assigned to 54% of the 94 modern sites. Incorrect assignments occur near the altitudinal limits of individual biomes, where pollen transport from lower altitudes blurs the local pollen signals or continuous changes in species composition characterizes the range limits of biomes. As a result, the reconstructed changes in the altitudinal limits of biomes at 6000 and 18,000 ¹⁴C yr bp are likely to be conservative estimates of the actual changes. The biome distribution at 6000 ¹⁴C yr bp was rather similar to today, suggesting that changes in the bioclimate of Japan have been small since the mid‐Holocene. At 18,000 ¹⁴C yr bp the Japanese lowlands were covered by taiga and cool mixed forests. The southward expansion of these forests and the absence of broadleaved evergreen/warm mixed forests reflect a pronounced year‐round cooling.     

Representation of vegetation dynamics in the modelling of terrestrial ecosystems: comparing two contrasting approaches within European climate space

• 1 Advances in dynamic ecosystem modelling have made a number of different approaches to vegetation dynamics possible. Here we compare two models representing contrasting degrees of abstraction of the processes governing dynamics in real vegetation.
• 2 Model (a) (GUESS) simulates explicitly growth and competition among individual plants. Differences in crown structure (height, depth, area and LAI) influence relative light uptake by neighbours. Assimilated carbon is allocated individually by each plant to its leaf, fine root and sapwood tissues. Carbon allocation and turnover of sapwood to heartwood in turn govern height and diameter growth.
• 3 Model (b) (LPJ) incorporates a ‘dynamic global vegetation model’ (DGVM) architecture, simulating growth of populations of plant functional types (PFTs) over a grid cell, integrating individual‐level processes over the proportional area (foliar projective cover, FPC) occupied by each PFT. Individual plants are not simulated, but are replaced by explicit parameterizations of their growth and interactions.
• 4 The models are identical in their representation of core physiological and biogeochemical processes. Both also use the same set of PFTs, corresponding to the major woody plant groups in Europe, plus a grass type.
• 5 When applied at a range of locations, broadly spanning climatic variation within Europe, both models successfully predicted PFT composition and succession within modern natural vegetation. However, the individual‐based model performed better in areas where deciduous and evergreen types coincide, and in areas subject to pronounced seasonal water deficits, which would tend to favour grasses over drought‐intolerant trees.
• 6 Differences in model performance could be traced to their treatment of individual‐level processes, in particular light competition and stress‐induced mortality.
• 7 Our results suggest that an explicit individual‐based approach to vegetation dynamics may be an advantage in modelling of ecosystem structure and function at the resolution required for regional‐ to continental‐scale studies.

     

Combined statistical and dynamical assessment of simulated vegetation–rainfall interactions in North Africa during the mid‐Holocene1

A negative feedback of vegetation cover on subsequent annual precipitation is simulated for the mid‐Holocene over North Africa using a fully coupled general circulation model with dynamic vegetation, FOAM‐LPJ (Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model‐Lund Potsdam Jena Model). By computing a vegetation feedback parameter based on lagged auto‐covariances, the simulated impact of North African vegetation on precipitation is statistically quantified. The feedback is also dynamically assessed through initial value ensemble experiments, in which North African grass cover is initially reduced and the climatic response analyzed. The statistical and dynamical assessments of the negative vegetation feedback agree in sign and relative magnitude for FOAM‐LPJ. The negative feedback on annual precipitation largely results from a competition between bare soil evaporation and plant transpiration, with increases in the former outweighing reductions in the latter given reduced grass cover. This negative feedback weakens and eventually reverses sign over time during a transient simulation from the mid‐Holocene to present. A similar, but weaker, negative feedback is identified in Community Climate System Model Version 2 (CCSM2) over North Africa for the mid‐Holocene.     

Late Quaternary biomes of Canada and the eastern United States

Pollen data have been used to construct biome maps for today, 6000 ¹⁴C yr bp and 18,000 ¹⁴C yr bp for Canada and the eastern United States. The inferred modern biome distributions agree well with independent reconstructions of North American vegetation prior to European settlement. Some discrepancies between the pollen data and the modern potential vegetation are caused by post‐settlement clearing of the landscape and the consequent increase of herbaceous types in the recent pollen record. Biome distributions at 6000 ¹⁴C yr bp reflected the warmer and drier conditions then prevalent in the continental interior, but the overall position of biomes was similar to that of today. The boreal treeline in North America was not significantly north of its present position, in contrast to the 100–200 km shift reported for Siberia. At the last glacial maximum (18,000 ¹⁴C yr bp ), steppe and tundra were prevalent in the Midwest and north‐western Canada, and coniferous forests and woodlands grew in eastern North America. The open vegetation at 18,000 ¹⁴C yr bp was probably due to drier conditions and/or lower concentrations of atmospheric CO₂. The composition and physical structure of biomes is not constant over time. Mid‐Holocene biomes were similar in structure to those of today, but shifts in the relative importance of individual plant functional types are large enough that the physical properties of biomes, such as albedo, canopy conductance and surface roughness, are likely to have varied even during the Holocene. Last glacial maximum biomes were structurally different from their modern counterparts. The biome maps therefore may obscure significant vegetational changes in space and time during the late Quaternary. The difference between the highest and next highest affinity scores for each sample measures how strongly affinity scores discriminate among biomes. For many biomes, the difference is not large, and affinity score ties are not uncommon, highlighting the importance of tie‐break procedures when using the biomization method.     

Herbaceous vegetation responses to experimental fire in savannas and forests depend on biome and climate

Fire–vegetation feedbacks potentially maintain global savanna and forest distributions. Accordingly, vegetation in savanna and forest ecosystems should have differential responses to fire, but fire response data for herbaceous vegetation have yet to be synthesized across biomes. Here, we examined herbaceous vegetation responses to experimental fire at 30 sites spanning four continents. Across a variety of metrics, herbaceous vegetation increased in abundance where fire was applied, with larger responses to fire in wetter and in cooler and/or less seasonal systems. Compared to forests, savannas were associated with a 4.8 (±0.4) times larger difference in herbaceous vegetation abundance for burned versus unburned plots. In particular, grass cover decreased with fire exclusion in savannas, largely via decreases in C₄ grass cover, whereas changes in fire frequency had a relatively weak effect on grass cover in forests. These differential responses underscore the importance of fire for maintaining the vegetation structure of savannas and forests.     

Pollen-based biome reconstruction for southern Europe and Africa 18,000 yr bp

Pollen data from 18,000 ¹⁴C yr bp were compiled in order to reconstruct biome distributions at the last glacial maximum in southern Europe and Africa. Biome reconstructions were made using the objective biomization method applied to pollen counts using a complete list of dryland taxa wherever possible. Consistent and major differences from present‐day biomes are shown. Forest and xerophytic woods/scrub were replaced by steppe, both in the Mediterranean region and in southern Africa, except in south‐western Cape Province where fynbos (xerophytic scrub) persisted. Sites in the tropical highlands, characterized today by evergreen forest, were dominated by steppe and/or xerophytic vegetation (cf. today’s Ericaceous belt and Afroalpine grassland) at the last glacial maximum. Available data from the tropical lowlands are sparse but suggest that the modern tropical rain forest was largely replaced by tropical seasonal forest while the modern seasonal or dry forests were encroached on by savanna or steppe. Montane forest elements descended to lower elevations than today.     

A new global biome reconstruction and data-model comparison for the Middle Pliocene

Aim To produce a robust, comprehensive global biome reconstruction for the Middle Pliocene (c. 3.6–2.6 Ma), which is based on an internally consistent palaeobotanical data set and a state‐of‐the‐art coupled climate–vegetation model. The reconstruction gives a more rigorous picture of climate and environmental change during the Middle Pliocene and provides a new boundary condition for future general circulation model (GCM) studies. Location Global. Methods Compilation of Middle Pliocene vegetation data from 202 marine and terrestrial sites into the comprehensive GIS data base TEVIS (Tertiary Environmental Information System). Translation into an internally consistent classification scheme using 28 biomes. Comparison and synthesis of vegetation reconstruction from palaeodata with the outputs of the mechanistically based BIOME4 model forced by climatology derived from the HadAM3 GCM. Results The model results compare favourably with available palaeodata and highlight the importance of employing vegetation–climate feedbacks and the anomaly method in biome models. Both the vegetation reconstruction from palaeobotanical data and the BIOME4 prediction indicate a general warmer and moister climate for the Middle Pliocene. Evergreen taiga as well as temperate forest and grassland shifted northward, resulting in much reduced tundra vegetation. Warm‐temperate forests (with subtropical taxa) spread in mid and eastern Europe and tropical savannas and woodland expanded in Africa and Australia at the expense of deserts. Discrepancies which occurred between data reconstruction and model simulation can be related to: (1) poor spatial model resolution and data coverage; (2) uncertainties in delimiting biomes using climate parameters; or (3) uncertainties in model physics and/or geological boundary conditions. Main conclusions The new global biome reconstruction combines vegetation reconstruction from palaeobotanical proxies with model simulations. It is an important contribution to the further understanding of climate and vegetation changes during the Middle Pliocene warm interval and will enhance our knowledge about how vegetation may change in the future.     

Comparing and evaluating process-based ecosystem model predictions of carbon and water fluxes in major European forest biomes

Process‐based models can be classified into: (a) terrestrial biogeochemical models (TBMs), which simulate fluxes of carbon, water and nitrogen coupled within terrestrial ecosystems, and (b) dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), which further couple these processes interactively with changes in slow ecosystem processes depending on resource competition, establishment, growth and mortality of different vegetation types. In this study, four models – RHESSys, GOTILWA+, LPJ‐GUESS and ORCHIDEE – representing both modelling approaches were compared and evaluated against benchmarks provided by eddy‐covariance measurements of carbon and water fluxes at 15 forest sites within the EUROFLUX project. Overall, model‐measurement agreement varied greatly among sites. Both modelling approaches have somewhat different strengths, but there was no model among those tested that universally performed well on the two variables evaluated. Small biases and errors suggest that ORCHIDEE and GOTILWA+ performed better in simulating carbon fluxes while LPJ‐GUESS and RHESSys did a better job in simulating water fluxes. In general, the models can be considered as useful tools for studies of climate change impacts on carbon and water cycling in forests. However, the various sources of variation among models simulations and between models simulations and observed data described in this study place some constraints on the results and to some extent reduce their reliability. For example, at most sites in the Mediterranean region all models generally performed poorly most likely because of problems in the representation of water stress effects on both carbon uptake by photosynthesis and carbon release by heterotrophic respiration (R_h). The use of flux data as a means of assessing key processes in models of this type is an important approach to improving model performance. Our results show that the models have value but that further model development is necessary with regard to the representation of the some of the key ecosystem processes.     

Satellite‐based evidence for shrub and graminoid tundra expansion in northern Quebec from 1986 to 2010

Global vegetation models predict rapid poleward migration of tundra and boreal forest vegetation in response to climate warming. Local plot and air‐photo studies have documented recent changes in high‐latitude vegetation composition and structure, consistent with warming trends. To bridge these two scales of inference, we analyzed a 24‐year (1986–2010) Landsat time series in a latitudinal transect across the boreal forest‐tundra biome boundary in northern Quebec province, Canada. This region has experienced rapid warming during both winter and summer months during the last 40 years. Using a per‐pixel (30 m) trend analysis, 30% of the observable (cloud‐free) land area experienced a significant (P < 0.05) positive trend in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, greening trends were not evenly split among cover types. Low shrub and graminoid tundra contributed preferentially to the greening trend, while forested areas were less likely to show significant trends in NDVI. These trends reflect increasing leaf area, rather than an increase in growing season length, because Landsat data were restricted to peak‐summer conditions. The average NDVI trend (0.007 yr^?1) corresponds to a leaf‐area index (LAI) increase of ~0.6 based on the regional relationship between LAI and NDVI from the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer. Across the entire transect, the area‐averaged LAI increase was ~0.2 during 1986–2010. A higher area‐averaged LAI change (~0.3) within the shrub‐tundra portion of the transect represents a 20–60% relative increase in LAI during the last two decades. Our Landsat‐based analysis subdivides the overall high‐latitude greening trend into changes in peak‐summer greenness by cover type. Different responses within and among shrub, graminoid, and tree‐dominated cover types in this study indicate important fine‐scale heterogeneity in vegetation growth. Although our findings are consistent with community shifts in low‐biomass vegetation types over multi‐decadal time scales, the response in tundra and forest ecosystems to recent warming was not uniform.