Assessing concordance of fossil calibration points in molecular clock studies: an example using turtles

Although still controversial, estimation of divergence times using molecular data has emerged as a powerful tool to examine the tempo and mode of evolutionary change. Two primary obstacles in improving the accuracy of molecular dating are heterogeneity in DNA substitution rates and accuracy of the fossil record as calibration points. Recent methodological advances have provided powerful methods that estimate relative divergence times in the face of heterogeneity of nucleotide substitution rates among lineages. However, relatively little attention has focused on the accuracy of fossil calibration points that allow one to translate relative divergence times into absolute time. We present a new cross-validation method that identifies inconsistent fossils when multiple fossil calibrations are available for a clade and apply our method to a molecular phylogeny of living turtles with fossil calibration times for 17 of the 22 internal nodes in the tree. Our cross-validation procedure identified seven inconsistent fossils. Using the consistent fossils as calibration points, we found that despite their overall antiquity as a lineage, the most species-rich clades of turtles diversified well within the Cenozoic. Many of the truly ancient lineages of turtles are currently represented by a few, often endangered species that deserve high priority as conservation targets.     

Testing fossil calibrations for vertebrate molecular trees

Lee, M. S. Y. & Skinner, A. (2011). Testing fossil calibrations for vertebrate molecular trees. —Zoologica Scripta, 40, 538–543.     

A simple method for bracketing absolute divergence times on molecular phylogenies using multiple fossil calibration points

A central challenge facing the temporal calibration of molecular phylogenies is finding a quantitative method for estimating maximum age constraints on lineage divergence times. Here, I provide such a method. This method requires an ultrametric tree generated without reference to the fossil record. Exploiting the fact that the relative branch lengths on the ultrametric tree are proportional to time, this method identifies the lineage with the greatest proportion of its true temporal range covered by the fossil record. The oldest fossil of this calibration lineage is used as the minimum age constraint. The maximum age constraint is obtained by adding a confidence interval onto the end point of the calibration lineage, thus making it possible to bracket the true divergence times of all lineages on the tree. The approach can also identify fossils that have been grossly misdated or misassigned to the phylogeny. The method assumes that the relative branch lengths on the ultrametric tree are accurate and that fossilization is random. The effect of violations of these assumptions is assessed. This method is simple to use and is illustrated with a reanalysis of Near et al.'s turtle data.     

Calibrating the molecular clock: estimates of ground squirrel divergence made using fossil and geological time markers

According to 5-Myr-old fossil evidence, ground squirrels within the genus Spermophilus had diverged into subgenera Spermophilus and Otospermophilus by late Miocene times. Radiometric dating has also provided a precise time for the sudden onset of a geological event, occurring 0.725 Myr ago, that initiated the complete and permanent reproductive isolation of two subspecies within the subgenus Otospermophilus. Since these two subspecies (S. beecheyi beecheyi and S. b. douglasii) readily hybridize with each other under laboratory conditions, allopatric subspeciation is unlikely to have occurred prior to 0.725 Myr ago. We employed Nei's model for estimating genetic distance in units which are linear in time, calibrated on the 0.725-Myr- ago date for initiation of S. b. subspeciation, to test its ability to generate a time scale for subgeneric divergence in keeping with the minimum estimate provided by the fossil record. This represents the most valid test to date of the utility of Nei's model for estimating genetic distance in units which are linear in time. Nei's model was found to underestimate this minimum time by 1 Myr, but it approximated this date after correcting values of D for variation in rates of evolution among loci.      

Decay of vertebrate characters in hagfish and lamprey (Cyclostomata) and the implications for the vertebrate fossil record

The timing and sequence of events underlying the origin and early evolution of vertebrates remains poorly understood. The palaeontological evidence should shed light on these issues, but difficulties in interpretation of the non-biomineralized fossil record make this problematic. Here we present an experimental analysis of decay of vertebrate characters based on the extant jawless vertebrates (Lampetra and Myxine). This provides a framework for the interpretation of the anatomy of soft-bodied fossil vertebrates and putative cyclostomes, and a context for reading the fossil record of non-biomineralized vertebrate characters. Decay results in transformation and non-random loss of characters. In both lamprey and hagfish, different types of cartilage decay at different rates, resulting in taphonomic bias towards loss of 'soft' cartilages containing vertebrate-specific Col2α1 extracellular matrix proteins; phylogenetically informative soft-tissue characters decay before more plesiomorphic characters. As such, synapomorphic decay bias, previously recognized in early chordates, is more pervasive, and needs to be taken into account when interpreting the anatomy of any non-biomineralized fossil vertebrate, such as Haikouichthys, Mayomyzon and Hardistiella.     

Exploring uncertainty in the calibration of the molecular clock

Calibration is a critical step in every molecular clock analysis but it has been the least considered. Bayesian approaches to divergence time estimation make it possible to incorporate the uncertainty in the degree to which fossil evidence approximates the true time of divergence. We explored the impact of different approaches in expressing this relationship, using arthropod phylogeny as an example for which we established novel calibrations. We demonstrate that the parameters distinguishing calibration densities have a major impact upon the prior and posterior of the divergence times, and it is critically important that users evaluate the joint prior distribution of divergence times used by their dating programmes. We illustrate a procedure for deriving calibration densities in Bayesian divergence dating through the use of soft maximum constraints.     

First direct evidence of a vertebrate three-level trophic chain in the fossil record

We describe the first known occurrence of a Permian shark specimen preserving two temnospondyl amphibians in its digestive tract as well as the remains of an acanthodian fish, which was ingested by one of the temnospondyls. This exceptional find provides for the first time direct evidence of a vertebrate three-level food chain in the fossil record with the simultaneous preservation of three trophic levels. Our analysis shows that small-sized Lower Permian xenacanthid sharks of the genus Triodus preyed on larval piscivorous amphibians. The recorded trophic interaction can be explained by the adaptation of certain xenacanthids to fully freshwater environments and the fact that in these same environments, large temnospondyls occupied the niche of modern crocodiles. This unique faunal association has not been documented after the Permian and Triassic. Therefore, this Palaeozoic three-level food chain provides strong and independent support for changes in aquatic trophic chain structures through time.     

Earliest vertebrate embryos in the fossil record (Middle Devonian,Givetian)

Serial sectioning of a nodule encapsulating an adult specimen of the arthrodire placoderm Watsonosteus fletti from the Eday Flagstone Formation (Givetian) in the Orcadian Basin of northern Scotland has revealed the presence of a number of embryos within the adult. This specimen represents the oldest known record of fossilized vertebrate embryos. Thin sections of two of the slices have revealed the detailed histological structure of embryonic plates in placoderms, showing that as previously deduced from visual examination, the outer and inner layers were the first to form. Gut contents preserved near the embryos show that the species had a varied diet, with dermal bone fragments from sarcopterygians and placoderms.     

Plant hemoglobins: a molecular fossil record for the evolution of oxygen transport

The evolution of oxygen transport hemoglobins occurred on at least two independent occasions. The earliest event led to myoglobin and red blood cell hemoglobin in animals. In plants, oxygen transport "leghemoglobins" evolved much more recently. In both events, pentacoordinate heme sites capable of inert oxygen transfer evolved from hexacoordinate hemoglobins that have unrelated functions. High sequence homology between hexacoordinate and pentacoordinate hemoglobins in plants has poised them for potential structural analysis leading to a molecular understanding of this important evolutionary event. However, the lack of a plant hexacoordinate hemoglobin structure in the exogenously ligand-bound form has prevented such comparison. Here we report the crystal structure of the cyanide-bound hexacoordinate hemoglobin from barley. This presents the first opportunity to examine conformational changes in plant hexacoordinate hemoglobins upon exogenous ligand binding, and reveals structural mechanisms for stabilizing the high-energy pentacoordinate heme conformation critical to the evolution of reversible oxygen binding hemoglobins.     

Diversity-dependence brings molecular phylogenies closer to agreement with the fossil record

The branching times of molecular phylogenies allow us to infer speciation and extinction dynamics even when fossils are absent. Troublingly, phylogenetic approaches usually return estimates of zero extinction, conflicting with fossil evidence. Phylogenies and fossils do agree, however, that there are often limits to diversity. Here, we present a general approach to evaluate the likelihood of a phylogeny under a model that accommodates diversity-dependence and extinction. We find, by likelihood maximization, that extinction is estimated most precisely if the rate of increase in the number of lineages in the phylogeny saturates towards the present or first decreases and then increases. We demonstrate the utility and limits of our approach by applying it to the phylogenies for two cases where a fossil record exists (Cetacea and Cenozoic macroperforate planktonic foraminifera) and to three radiations lacking fossil evidence (Dendroica, Plethodon and Heliconius). We propose that the diversity-dependence model with extinction be used as the standard model for macro-evolutionary dynamics because of its biological realism and flexibility.     

Lemuriform origins as viewed from the fossil record

Fossils relevant to lemuriform origins are reviewed. Omanodon seems very close to the other early tooth-combed lemuriforms Karanisia, Wadilemur and Saharagalago, whereas Bugtilemur is rejected from the Lemuriformes. The Djebelemurinae, including Djebelemur and 'Anchomomys' milleri, are considered as stem lemuriforms preceding tooth comb differentiation; they are shown to be very distinct from European adapiforms. With tooth-combed lemuriforms present in Africa around 40 million years ago, and stem lemuriforms without tooth combs present on the same continent around 50-48 million years ago, a reasonable scenario can be proposed: tooth comb differentiation and lemuriform dispersal to Madagascar between 52-40 million years ago. The possible significance of Plesiopithecus for daubentoniid origins is raised. A critique of molecular dates is presented in the light of the fossil record. Azibiids are possibly early African prosimians. The timing of the dispersal of primates to Africa and the problem of strepsirhine origins are briefly examined.     

Speciation in the fossil record

It is easy to claim that the fossil record says nothing about speciation because the biological species concept (which relies on interbreeding) cannot be applied to it and genetic studies cannot be carried out on it. However, fossilized organisms are often preserved in sufficient abundance for populations of intergrading morphs to be recognized, which, by analogy with modern populations, are probably biological species. Moreover, the fossil record is our only reliable documentation of the sequence of past events over long time intervals: the processes of speciation are generally too slow to be observed directly, and permanent reproductive isolation can only be verified with hindsight. Recent work has shown that some parts of the fossil record are astonishingly complete and well documented, and patterns of lineage splitting can be examined in detail. Marine plankton appear to show gradual speciation, with subsequent morphological differentiation of lineages taking up to 500000 years to occur. Marine invertebrates and vertebrates more commonly show punctuated patterns, with periods of rapid speciation followed by long-term stasis of species lineages.     

Arthropod phylogeny: An overview from the perspectives of morphology,molecular data and the fossil record

Monophyly of Arthropoda is emphatically supported from both morphological and molecular perspectives. Recent work finds Onychophora rather than Tardigrada to be the closest relatives of arthropods. The status of tardigrades as panarthropods (rather than cycloneuralians) is contentious from the perspective of phylogenomic data. A grade of Cambrian taxa in the arthropod stem group includes gilled lobopodians, dinocaridids (e.g., anomalocaridids), fuxianhuiids and canadaspidids that inform on character acquisition between Onychophora and the arthropod crown group. A sister group relationship between Crustacea (itself likely paraphyletic) and Hexapoda is retrieved by diverse kinds of molecular data and is well supported by neuroanatomy. This clade, Tetraconata, can be dated to the early Cambrian by crown group-type mandibles. The rival Atelocerata hypothesis (Myriapoda + Hexapoda) has no molecular support. The basal node in the arthropod crown group is embroiled in a controversy over whether myriapods unite with chelicerates (Paradoxopoda or Myriochelata) or with crustaceans and hexapods (Mandibulata). Both groups find some molecular and morphological support, though Mandibulata is presently the stronger morphological hypothesis. Either hypothesis forces an unsampled ghost lineage for Myriapoda from the Cambrian to the mid Silurian.     

The application of a molecular clock based on molecular sequences and the fossil record to explain biogeographic distributions within the Alexandrium tamarense "species complex" (Dinophyceae)

The cosmopolitan dinoflagellate genus Alexandrium, and especially the A. tamarense species complex, contain both toxic and nontoxic strains. An understanding of their evolution and paleogeography is a necessary precursor to unraveling the development and spread of toxic forms. The inclusion of more strains into the existing phylogenetic trees of the Alexandrium tamarense species complex from large subunit rDNA sequences has confirmed that geographic distribution is consistent with the molecular clades but not with the three morphologically defined species that constitute the complex. In addition, a new clade has been discovered, representing Mediterranean nontoxic strains. The dinoflagellates fossil record was used to calibrate a molecular clock: key dates used in this calibration are the origins of the Peridiniales (estimated at 190 MYA), Gonyaulacaceae (180 MYA), and Ceratiaceae (145 MYA). Based on the data set analyzed, the origin of the genus Alexandrium was estimated to be around late Cretaceous (77 MYA), with its earliest possible origination in the mid Cretaceous (119 MYA). The A. tamarense species complex potentially diverged around the early Neogene (23 MYA), with a possible first appearance in the late Paleogene (45 MYA). A paleobiogeographic scenario for Alexandrium is based on (1) the calculated possible ages of origination for the genus and its constituent groups; (2) paleogeographic events determined by plate movements, changing ocean configurations and currents, as well as climatic fluctuations; and (3) the present geographic distribution of the various clades of the Alexandrium tamarense species complex.     

Playing chicken (Gallus gallus): methodological inconsistencies of molecular divergence date estimates due to secondary calibration points

For any given taxonomic divergence event, one may find in the literature a wide range of time estimates. Many factors contribute to the variation in molecular date estimates for the same evolutionary event. High on the list is the choice of calibration points for converting genetic distances into evolutionary rates and, subsequently, into dates of divergence. In this study, we investigate one critical source of error in estimating divergence times, i.e. the use of secondary calibration points, which are divergence time estimates that have been derived from one molecular dataset on the basis of a primary external calibration point, and which are used again independently of the original external calibration point on a second dataset. Unless particular care is exercised, this practice leads to internal inconsistencies, and the inferred dates of divergence are by necessity unreliable. We present a consistency test for assessing the reliability of divergence time estimates based on secondary calibration points. As a case study, we examine recent estimates of divergence times among phyla and kingdoms based on multiple nuclear protein-coding genes, and show that they fail the consistency test.     

Review of the monotreme fossil record and comparison of palaeontological and molecular data

Monotremes have traditionally been considered a remnant group of mammals descended from archaic Mesozoic stock, surviving to the present day on the relatively isolated Australian continent. Challenges to this orthodoxy have been spurred by discoveries of 'advanced' Cretaceous monotremes (Steropodon galmani, Archer, M., et al., 1985. First Mesozoic mammal from Australia-an Early Cretaceous monotreme, Nature. 318, 363-366) as well as by results from molecular data linking monotremes to therian mammals (specifically to marsupials in some studies). This paper reviews the monotreme fossil record and briefly discusses significant new information from additional Cretaceous Australian material. Mesozoic monotremes (including S. galmani) were a diverse group as evidenced by new material from the Early Cretaceous of New South Wales and Victoria currently under study. Although most of these new finds are edentulous jaws (limiting dental comparisons and determination of dietary niches), a range of sizes and forms has been determined. Some of these Cretaceous jaws exhibit archaic features-in particular evidence for the presence of a splenial bone in S. galmani-not seen in therian mammals or in post-Mesozoic (Tertiary and Quaternary) monotreme taxa. Tertiary monotremes were either archaic ornithorhynchids (toothed platypuses in the genera Monotrematum and Obdurodon) or tachyglossids (large echidnas in the genera Megalibgwilia and Zaglossus). Quaternary ornithorhynchid material is referable to the sole living platypus species Ornithorhynchus anatinus. Quaternary echidnas, however, were moderately diverse and several forms are known (Megalibgwilia species; 'Zaglossus' hacketti; Zaglossus species and Tachyglossus aculeatus).     

Assessing calibration uncertainty in molecular dating: the assignment of fossils to alternative calibration points

Although recent methodological advances have allowed the incorporation of rate variation in molecular dating analyses, the calibration procedure, performed mainly through fossils, remains resistant to improvements. One source of uncertainty pertains to the assignment of fossils to specific nodes in a phylogeny, especially when alternative possibilities exist that can be equally justified on morphological grounds. Here we expand on a recently developed fossil cross-validation method to evaluate whether alternative nodal assignments of multiple fossils produce calibration sets that differ in their internal consistency. We use an enlarged Crypteroniaceae-centered phylogeny of Myrtales, six fossils, and 72 combinations of calibration points, termed calibration sets, to identify (i) the fossil assignments that produce the most internally consistent calibration sets and (ii) the mean ages, derived from these calibration sets, for the split of the Southeast Asian Crypteroniaceae from their West Gondwanan sister clade (node X). We found that a correlation exists between s values, devised to measure the consistency among the calibration points of a calibration set (Near and Sanderson, 2004), and nodal distances among calibration points. By ranking all sets according to the percent deviation of s from the regression line with nodal distance, we identified the sets with the highest level of corrected calibration-set consistency. These sets generated lower standard deviations associated with the ages of node X than sets characterized by lower corrected consistency. The three calibration sets with the highest corrected consistencies produced mean age estimates for node X of 79.70, 79.14, and 78.15 My. These timeframes are most compatible with the hypothesis that the Crypteroniaceae stem lineage dispersed from Africa to the Deccan plate as it drifted northward during the Late Cretaceous.     

Climatic influences on species: Evidence from the fossil record

The detailed Neogene and Quaternary paleoclimatic reconstructions now available provide a means to test how species respond to environmental change. Paleontologic studies of marine organisms show that climatic change causes evolution (via cladogenesis and anagenesis), ecophenotypic variation, migration, morphologic stasis and extinction. Evolution during climatic change is a rare event relative to the number of climatic cycles that have occurred, but climate-related environmental barriers, usually temperature, may play an important role in the isolation of populations during allopatric speciation.     

Inferring social behavior from sexual dimorphism in the fossil record

Sexual dimorphism is commonly used as evidence of the behavior of extinct species. Even so, few analyses scrutinize whether extant comparative data support inferences of mating systems or behavior in extinct species. This analysis evaluates the relations between measures of dimorphism and several estimates of mating system and intrasexual competition. Dimorphism alone provides poor resolution for reconstructing behavior. Many behavioral inferences based on perceived dimorphism are not supported by extant comparative data. This reflects the large standard errors of relations between dimorphism estimates and behavioral classifications. Used with caution, dimorphism can provide a hint of the behavior of extinct species in some cases. However, in many cases inferred dimorphism allows little more than an inference of polygyny, without any indication of specific types of mating systems.     

When Earth started blooming: insights from the fossil record

Recent palaeobotanical studies have greatly increased the quantity and quality of information available about the structure and relationships of Cretaceous angiosperms. Discoveries of extremely well preserved Cretaceous flowers have been especially informative and, combined with results from phylogenetic analyses of extant angiosperms (based mainly on molecular sequence data), have greatly clarified important aspects of early angiosperm diversification. Nevertheless, many questions still persist. The phylogenetic origin of the group itself remains as enigmatic as ever and, in some cases, newly introduced techniques from molecular biology have given confusing results. In particular, relationships between the five groups of extant seed plants remain uncertain, and it has sometimes proved difficult to reconcile estimates of the time of divergence between extant lineages made using a 'molecular clock' with the fossil record. One result, however, is becoming increasingly clear: a great deal of angiosperm diversity is extinct. Some groups of angiosperms were evidently more diverse in the past than they are today. In other cases, fossils defy assignment to extant groups at the family level or below. This raises the possibility that evolutionary conclusions based solely upon extant taxa that are merely relics of groups that were once much more diverse might be misled by the effects of extinction. It also introduces the possibility that some early enigmatic fossils might represent lineages that diverged from the main line of angiosperm evolution below the most recent common ancestor of all extant taxa. These, and other questions, are among those that need to be addressed by future palaeobotanical research.