Predicting Wood Duck Harvest Rates in Eastern North America

Abstract: We developed a method for predicting wood duck (Aix sponsa) harvest rates in eastern North America using waterfowl banding and recovery data, annual indices of hunter numbers, and harvest survey data from the United States and Canada. We predicted that under the current season length (60 days), if hunter numbers remain unchanged, increasing the wood duck bag limit from 2 to 3 would increase harvest of adult male wood ducks in the Atlantic and Mississippi flyways by 12.3%, causing an increase in harvest rate of 7.1% from 0.087 to 0.093. The Flyway Councils and the United States Fish and Wildlife Service can consider this information to predict the impacts of regulatory changes.     

Effects of variable spring harvest regimes on annual survival and recovery rates of male wild turkeys in Southeast Louisiana

Spring harvest is a primary mortality factor for male eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris), but the relationship between spring harvest regimes and annual survival is not well understood. We banded 462 male wild turkeys from 1989 to 2007 in southeastern Louisiana to estimate annual survival and band recovery rates relative to spring harvest. We evaluated these parameters under a liberal harvest season (3-bird limit; 1989–1997) and a reduced conservative harvest season (2-bird limit; 2000–2007). Estimated recovery rates during the liberal season were 0.75 (SE = 0.05) for adults and 0.63 (SE = 0.04) for juveniles, and recovery rates during the conservative season were 0.61 (SE = 0.04) and 0.48 (SE = 0.05) for adults and juveniles, respectively. Annual survival averaged 0.16 (SE = 0.05) and 0.43 (SE = 0.05) for adults and juveniles, respectively, during the liberal season. Conversely, during the conservative season, annual survival averaged 0.31 (SE = 0.05) and 0.56 (SE = 0.05) for adults and juveniles, respectively. Our findings suggest that bag limit reductions combined with a reduction in season length contributed to a 2-fold increase in annual survival for male wild turkeys. We contend that male wild turkeys were likely over harvested on our study area during the liberal harvest season, which contributed to exceptionally low annual survival rates. Managers should attempt to assess survival rates of male wild turkeys in harvested populations to properly manage spring harvest and develop appropriate harvest limits. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Continental Survival and Recovery Rates of Northern Pintails Using Band-Recovery Data

Abstract: Unlike other North American prairie-nesting dabbling ducks, northern pintail (Anas acuta) populations have not increased since the early 1990s and remain well below the long-term average for traditional survey areas. Previously reported estimates of annual survival and recovery rates for pintails did not investigate any spatial or temporal factors to explain annual variation of these rates. We used band-recovery data from 1970 to 2003 to test the influence of temporal periods defined by differing harvest regulations and habitat conditions of breeding grounds with spatially delineated regions on survival and recovery rates of northern pintails in North America. We separated regions based on a multiresponse permutation procedure to identify banding blocks with dissimilar recovery distributions based on a cluster analysis. We categorized time by grouping years into temporal periods based on bag limits, season lengths, or overflight versus nonoverflight years. We used the Brownie approach in Program MARK to evaluate 46 a priori models estimating survival and recovery rates. The best approximating model indicated that survival varied with age, sex, and region with additive time and interactive time-by-age and time-by-region effects. Recovery rate was best represented by a fully interactive term comprised of age, sex, region, and year. There were no statistical differences among average annual survival point estimates between age and sex classes within each region, and our estimates were similar to previous unpublished studies. We found the eastern region had decreased survival and increased recovery rates compared to other regions. Trends in pintail survival suggest that variation in annual survival was not the cause of the initial decrease in the northern pintail population and is unlikely the dominant factor preventing the population from increasing. The influence of other population parameters, such as recruitment rate, should be investigated to further evaluate other causes for the population status of northern pintails. Use of the top-ranked model to estimate annual survival and recovery rates for northern pintails in North America, which indicated that annually varying estimates of survival rates were better supported by the data than grouping years into temporal classes (i.e., based on bag limits, season lengths, and overflight yr) can be used by managers and policy makers when considering annual harvest regulations and effects of conservation efforts. Managers should incorporate these estimates into future demographic studies of pintails as well as consider using the top-ranked model for future analyses of band-recovery data.     

Origins of harvested American black ducks: stable isotopes support the flyover hypothesis

Waterfowl management is more effective when based on detailed information on population connectivity between breeding, wintering, and stopover sites. For the American black duck (Anas rubripes), a species of conservation concern, estimates for the fall age ratio at harvest differed depending on whether harvest data were derived from Canada or the United States, suggesting regional differences. Within Canada, hunters in Atlantic Canada were more likely to harvest black ducks from nearby breeding locations compared to hunters in southern Ontario and Quebec, Canada, who were more likely to harvest individuals from the Boreal Softwood and Taiga Shield of eastern Canada. Black ducks harvested in the United States are thought to originate predominantly from northern portions of the breeding range, leading to the flyover hypothesis, which postulates that black ducks produced in the Boreal Softwood and Taiga Shield region are less susceptible to harvest by hunters in Atlantic Canada and northeastern United States. To test the flyover hypothesis, we examined regional and temporal differences in the origins of harvested black ducks using feathers from wings (n = 664) submitted by hunters to the species composition and parts collection surveys across 3 hunting seasons (2017–2018, 2018–2019, 2019–2020). We used a likelihood-based assignment method that relied on feather stable-hydrogen isotopes (δ²H) and stable-carbon isotopes (δ¹³C) to determine the natal or molt origin of individuals harvested within eastern Canada and the United States. We also used a spatial clustering technique to group harvested individuals by area of origin without a priori knowledge of such regions. Adult female black ducks originated farther south compared to males and juveniles. All sexes and ages of black ducks harvested in Atlantic Canada showed predominantly southern origins, while those harvested in the United States and other Canadian provinces primarily originated farther north within the boreal, supporting the flyover hypothesis. By contrast, we found no relationship between timing of harvest or peaks of migration and individual origin. After combining band returns and stable isotopes, we inferred 2 distinct stocks: the Mississippi flyway stock and the Atlantic flyway stock. We recommend that regional demographic parameters, particularly for Atlantic Canada, be directly measured to promote more effective conservation of black ducks and optimize harvest opportunities in the United States and Canada.     

Factors affecting harvests of fishers and American martens in northern michigan

Harvest data (e.g., number of animals harvested, trapper effort) are an important source of information for state wildlife agencies to manage harvested furbearers. These data provide evidence to support adapting harvest regulations when necessary. Setting appropriate harvest regulations for fishers (Martes pennanti) and American martens (Martes americana) is critical, as these species often exist at low densities, are sensitive to timber-management practices and trapper-harvest, and experience some level of interspecific predation and competition in sympatric populations. We estimated effects of management (e.g., number of fishers or martens harvested per trapper per season [harvest limit], season length) and extrinsic (e.g., weather, pelt prices) factors on regulated harvests of fishers and martens in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan during 1996–2007. We used generalized linear mixed models in an information-theoretic approach (quasi-likelihood adjusted Akaike Information Criterion [QAIC]) to discern which factors most strongly influenced fisher and marten harvests. For harvest of fishers, the 3 QAIC-best models included harvest limit, season length, and number of trappers, suggesting that regulatory changes within the ranges tested may be implemented to influence harvest. The QAIC-best model (harvest limit) contained 26% of the weight of evidence, and using an independent subset of data, showed no difference between model predictions and harvest data. In contrast, harvest of martens was not strongly influenced by any factors we tested. Possible reasons for a lack of measurable effects while modeling harvest of martens include a low harvest limit (i.e., 1 marten) or incidental harvest of martens by fisher or bobcat (Lynx rufus) trappers. Knowledge of influences on harvest will lead to informed decision-making when managers are setting harvest regulations, particularly for low-density furbearers. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Land use and dispersal influence mortality in white-tailed deer

Restoring male age structure in white-tailed deer populations has become an important objective for many state agencies aimed at improving herd dynamics. Limiting mortality in the yearling (1–2 yr old) age class is a primary consideration, and regional differences in climate, habitat characteristics, hunting regulations, and hunter behavior complicate the understanding of how specific factors influence the risk of mortality. We used Cox proportional hazard modeling to determine the effects of body size, mean distance to road, dispersal behaviors, use of forested land, and use of land open to public hunting on the risk of mortality for a population of radio-collared, yearling males (n = 76) in Sussex County, Delaware, USA. Annual survival averaged 0.55 (95% CI = 0.45–0.68), with harvest accounting for 79% (26/33) of all mortalities. Measurements of body size (chest girth, shoulder height, and total length; cm) influenced dispersal probability but not dispersal distance. The best approximating model for mortality risk included a covariate for landownership, whereby mortality risk increased on public land. Among males who dispersed, longer-distance dispersal was associated with reduced mortality, which contradicts previous research describing dispersal as a high-risk behavior. The effect of landownership on mortality risk has not been previously identified, especially when regulations regarding harvest of yearling males are similar between landownership types. We observed annual survival rates of 0.69 (95% CI = 0.57–0.82) for deer apparently using private land exclusively during the hunting season, and 0.20 (95% CI = 0.11–0.48) for deer that used public land during the hunting season. Survival rates on private land were comparable to those of other regions actively managing male age structure. These results suggest survival of yearling males in the region is influenced by hunter harvest and the risks associated with dispersal may be minimal in areas where harvest pressure is low, although hunter harvest on public land may limit male age structure on a localized scale. © The Wildlife Society, 2019     

Socioeconomic and ecological correlates of bobcat harvest in Minnesota

Management of game animals requires understanding of factors that affect harvest levels. Although influenced by international law, bobcat (Lynx rufus) management is the responsibility of state or provincial agencies, and jurisdictional environmental, ecological, and regulatory differences may alter which variables influence harvest. Consequently, our understanding of the factors driving bobcat harvest should be at a scale similar to that at which they are managed. We associated 32 years of bobcat harvest data from Minnesota with socioeconomic (e.g., pelt prices, license sales) and ecological variables (e.g., prey abundance, bobcat-specific index of winter severity) to determine what variables most strongly influenced annual bobcat harvest. We constructed candidate negative binomial generalized linear models based on an information–theoretic approach and used quasi-likelihood Akaike's Information Criterion adjusted for small sample size to assess the relative performance of each model. Our best model suggested that annual bobcat harvest in Minnesota was positively related to the proportion of scent stations visited by bobcats and season length, and negatively related to the proportion of days when the maximum temperature did not exceed the bobcat's lower critical temperature. Our results differ from those of other studies examining factors influencing furbearer harvest that have suggested furbearer harvest is driven primarily by pelt price, and suggest that managers can influence the annual harvest of bobcats by changing season length. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Modeling Harvest Intensity of Sooty Shearwater Chicks by Rakiura Māori in New Zealand

Abstract: Cultural evidence suggests that sooty shearwater (Puffinus griseus) chicks have been harvested by Rakiura Māori on islands in southern New Zealand since prehistoric times. Concerns exist that modern harvests may be impacting sooty shearwater abundance. We modeled human-related and ecological determinants of harvest (total no. of individuals harvested) of sooty shearwater chicks on 11 islands and examined the relationship between shearwater abundance and harvesting rates (chicks/hr) and harvester behavior throughout the harvesting season. Models best explaining variation in harvest between harvesting areas (manu), for both the early and late parts of the harvesting season, included harvester-days (included in all models with change in deviance information criteria [ΔDIC], ΔDIC < 8.36 and ΔDIC < 11.5, for the early and late periods, respectively). Other harvest determinants included shearwater density, size of the manu, and number of people helping harvesters (all included in the top 5 models within ΔDIC = 2.25 for the late period). Areas harvested by several families under a common-property harvesting system had higher harvest intensity for their size (24% points higher, 95% credible interval 11–36%) than those managed as an exclusive resource for one family. The slowest harvesters spent more time harvesting but on average only harvested 36% (95% credible interval 15–65%) and 34% (95% credible interval 12–63%) of the harvest taken by the fastest harvesters during the early and late periods, respectively. Our results highlight the possibility of elevated harvest intensity as the population of harvesters increases. However, our models suggested that a corresponding reduction in harvesting rate at low prey densities during the most productive period could potentially regulate harvest intensity. Future research will integrate these results into prospective shearwater demographic models to assess the utility of a range of harvesting strategies in ensuring harvest sustainability.     

Spatio-temporal variation in male white-tailed deer harvest rates in Pennsylvania: Implications for estimating abundance

The performance of 2 popular methods that use age-at-harvest data to estimate abundance of white-tailed deer is contingent on assumptions about variation in estimates of subadult (1.5 yr old) and adult (≥2.5 yr old) male harvest rates. Auxiliary data (e.g., estimates of survival or harvest rates from radiocollared animals) can be used to relax some assumptions, but unless these population parameters exhibit limited temporal or spatial variation, these auxiliary data may not improve accuracy. Unfortunately maintaining sufficient sample sizes of radiocollared deer for parameter estimation in every wildlife management unit (WMU) is not feasible for most state agencies. We monitored the fates of 397 subadult and 225 adult male white-tailed deer across 4 WMUs from 2002 to 2008 using radio telemetry. We investigated spatial and temporal variation in harvest rates and investigated covariates related to the patterns observed. We found that most variation in harvest rates was explained spatially and that adult harvest rates (0.36–0.69) were more variable among study areas than subadult harvest rates (0.26–0.42). We found that hunter effort during the archery and firearms season best explained variation in harvest rates of adult males among WMUs, whereas hunter effort during only the firearms season best explained harvest rates for subadult males. From a population estimation perspective, it is advantageous that most variation was spatial and explained by a readily obtained covariate (hunter effort). However, harvest rates may vary if hunting regulations or hunter behavior change, requiring additional field studies to obtain accurate estimates of harvest rates. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Density-Dependent Harvest Modeling for the Eastern Wild Turkey

Abstract Many current wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) harvest models assume density-independent population dynamics. We developed an alternative model incorporating both nonlinear density-dependence and stochastic density-independent effects on wild turkey populations. We examined model sensitivity to parameter changes in 5% increments and determined mean spring and fall harvests and their variability in the short term (3 yr) and long term (10 yr) from proportional harvesting under these conditions. In the long term, population growth rates were most sensitive to poult:female ratios and the form of density dependence. The nonlinear density-dependent effect produced a population that maximized yield at 40% carrying capacity. The model indicated that a spring or fall proportional harvest could be maximized for fall harvest rates between 0% and 13% of the population, assuming a 15% spring male harvest and 5% spring illegal female kill. Combined spring and fall harvests could be maximized at a 9% fall harvest, under the same assumptions. Variability in population growth and harvest rates increased uncertainty in spring and fall harvests and the probability of overharvesting annual yield, with growth rate variation having the strongest effect. Model simulations suggested fall harvest rates should be conservative (≤9%) for most management strategies.     

Duck hunter activity,success, and satisfaction on public hunting areas

Because hunting disturbance can influence local distribution of ducks and their availability to hunters, managers often limit access to hunting areas to improve hunting success and satisfaction. Few studies have quantified the effectiveness of public area access restrictions on duck hunter activity, harvest, or hunters' satisfaction with their hunting experience. We used a cross-over design over 6 consecutive hunting seasons (2008–2009 through 2013–2014) on State Wildlife Areas (SWAs) in northeastern Colorado, USA, to compare the effects of restricted hunting access regulations and regulations without these restrictions on duck hunter activity, harvest success, harvest levels, and satisfaction. We also considered effects of SWA types, duck abundance, temperature, precipitation, use of equipment by duck hunting parties, and, for hunter satisfaction, hunting success, hunting parties' satisfaction with ducks seen, habitat conditions, crowding from other hunters, and SWA regulations. The number of days when duck hunters had access to restricted properties was about half that on unrestricted properties, and unrestricted properties were used by about twice as many duck hunting parties, but the mean number of hunting parties per available hunting day and mean party size were similar under the 2 types of regulations. Most (56%) duck hunting parties did not bag any ducks; hunting success (harvest of ≥1 duck by a hunting party) was best explained by a model that included a regulation type × hunting season interaction, a SWA type × month interaction, hunter density the previous day, an index of hunter investment (number of decoys used and whether dogs and calls were used), and temperature. Successful hunting parties harvested 1.92 ± 1.60 (SD) ducks/hunter/day (range = 0.1–7.0); the best model predicting the number of ducks harvested per hunter in successful parties included a regulation type × hunting season interaction, a SWA type × month interaction, hunter density the previous day, an index of hunter investment, temperature, and precipitation. Overall satisfaction of duck hunting parties with a day's hunt averaged 3.62 ± 1.20 based on a rank scale of 1 (very unsatisfied) to 5 (very satisfied), and was best explained by a model that included hunting party success; hunter investment; temperature; and satisfaction with duck numbers, habitat conditions, hunting regulations, and crowding. While greatly reducing days available for hunting, access restrictions were associated with improved chances of hunting parties successfully harvesting ≥1 duck in 5 of 6 hunting seasons, and substantially greater numbers of ducks harvested by hunters in successful parties in 1 of 6 hunting seasons. Restrictions did not have a strong direct effect on hunting parties' satisfaction with a day's hunt. Uncontrolled factors, including weather and use of equipment by hunters, had important influences on hunter success, harvest, and satisfaction. Managers should carefully assess hunting activity, hunter expectations and desires, and hunting area characteristics when considering access restrictions on public hunting areas.     

Temporal changes in age and sex ratios of forest grouse harvested in northeastern oregon

Ratio of immature (young of the year) grouse to adult birds (I:A) in the harvest of upland game birds is commonly used as an index to annual reproduction; however, I:A ratios can vary as the season progresses producing biased estimates. We analyzed I:A ratios in the daily harvest of dusky grouse (Dendragopus obscurus) and ruffed grouse (Bonasa umbellus) in northeastern Oregon over 28 years (1981–2008) and found that I:A ratios in the harvest declined for both species as the hunting season progressed. We also analyzed ratios of adult female to adult male (AF:AM) grouse to determine if female and male grouse were harvested in equal numbers throughout the harvest season. We found that more males than females of both species were harvested, but that AF:AM ratio of both dusky and ruffed grouse did not change during most of the hunting season. Approximately 50% of the annual harvest occurred during the first 14 days of the hunting season. Therefore, we recommend using the ratios of I:A birds in the first 14 days of the harvest season as the best index to annual reproduction of forest grouse in northeast Oregon. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Individual heterogeneity in black brant survival and recruitment with implications for harvest dynamics

We examined individual heterogeneity in survival and recruitment of female Pacific black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) using frailty models adapted to a capture–mark–recapture context. Our main objectives were (1) to quantify levels of heterogeneity and examine factors affecting heterogeneity, and (2) model the effects of individual heterogeneity on harvest dynamics through matrix models. We used 24 years of data on brant marked and recaptured at the Tutakoke River colony, AK. Multievent models were fit as hidden Markov chain using program E‐SURGE with an adequate overdispersion coefficient. Annual survival of individuals marked as goslings was heterogeneous among individuals and year specific with about 0.23 difference in survival between “high” (0.73)‐ and “low” (0.50)‐quality individuals at average survival probability. Adult survival (0.85 ± 0.004) was homogeneous and higher than survival of both groups of juveniles. The annual recruitment probability was heterogeneous for brant >1‐year‐old; 0.56 (±0.21) and 0.31 (±0.03) for high‐ and low‐quality individuals, respectively. Assuming equal clutch sizes for high‐ and low‐quality individuals and that 80% of offspring were in the same quality class as the breeding female resulted in reproductive values about twice as high for high‐quality individuals than low‐quality individual for a given class of individuals producing differential contributions to population growth among groups. Differences in reproductive values greatly increased when we assumed high‐quality individuals had larger clutch sizes. When we assumed that 50% of offspring were in the same quality class as their mothers and clutches were equal, differences in reproductive values between quality classes were greatly reduced or eliminated (breeders [BRs]). We considered several harvest scenarios using the assumption that 80% of offspring were in the same quality class as their mothers. The amount of compensation for harvest mortality declined as the proportion of high‐quality individuals in the harvest increased, as differences in clutch sizes between groups decreased and as the proportion of BRs in the harvest increased. Synthesis and applications. Harvest at the same proportional level of the overall population can result in variable responses in population growth rate when heterogeneity is present in a population. λ was <1.0 under every scenario when harvest rates were >10%, and heterogeneity caused as much as +2% difference in growth rates at the highest levels of proportional harvest for low‐quality individuals and the greatest differences in qualities between classes of individuals, a critical difference for a population with λ near 1.0 such as the brant. We observed less response in overall survival in the presence of heterogeneity because we did not observe heterogeneity in the annual survival of BRs. This analysis provides a comprehensive view of overall compensation at the population level and also constitutes the first example of a survival‐recruitment model with heterogeneity. Individual heterogeneity should be more explicitly considered in harvest management of vertebrates.     

Variation in Survival and Harvest Rates in Florida Mottled Duck

The Florida mottled duck (Anas fulvigula fulvigula) inhabits a relatively small range of approximately 90,000 km² within peninsular Florida, USA, and is threatened by habitat loss and genetic introgression with feral mallards (Anas platyrhynchos). Moreover, the Florida mottled duck population status has not been assessed for more than a decade. We used band-recovery and recapture data from 2000–2013 to examine geographic and demographic factors that influence the survival of Florida mottled ducks and to determine whether survival and harvest probabilities have changed over time. Mean survival probabilities were higher for birds banded in the southern portion of their Florida range than for those banded in the northern portion and higher for adult males than for adult females in both areas. Harvest probabilities increased in the northern extent of its range in Florida for adults and juveniles and remained relatively constant in the southern portion of its range during the study period. Mean harvest probabilities for adult males in both areas were higher than for adult females. Mean harvest probability for juvenile females was higher than that for juvenile males in the north but was similar between the sexes in the south. Our results suggest that mortality rates are generally greater in the northern portion of the Florida mottled duck range because of regional differences in habitat distribution and permanence and in how mottled ducks and humans use wetlands in these areas. We suggest increasing conservation efforts in the north portion of the Florida mottled duck range and improving inferences from leg banding by incorporating live recapture data. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Survival and cause-specific mortality of male wild turkeys across the southeastern United States

Estimating survival and cause-specific mortality of male eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) is important for understanding population dynamics and implementing appropriate harvest management. To better understand age-specific estimates of annual survival and harvest rates, we captured and marked male wild turkeys with leg bands (n = 311) or bands and transmitters (n = 549) in Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, and South Carolina, USA, during 2014–2022. We fitted time to event models to data from radio-marked birds to estimate cause-specific mortality and annual survival. We used band recovery models incorporating both band recovery and telemetry data to further investigate harvest rates and survival. Annual survival from known-fate models in hunted populations was 0.54 (95% CI = 0.49–0.59) for adults and 0.86 (95% CI = 0.81–0.92) for juveniles. Cause-specific mortality analysis produced an annual harvest estimate of 0.29 (95% CI = 0.24–0.33) for adults and 0.02 (95% CI = 0.01–0.03) for juveniles, whereas predation was 0.15 (95% CI = 0.10–0.20) and 0.12 (95% CI = 0.08–0.17), respectively. Annual survival for adult males in a non-hunted population was 0.83 (95% CI = 0.72–0.97). Survival rate was negatively correlated with harvest rate, indicating harvest was an additive mortality source. Annual survival from band recovery models was 0.40 (95% CI = 0.37–0.44) for adults and 0.88 (95% CI = 0.81– 0.93) for juveniles, whereas annual harvest estimates were 0.24 (95% CI = 0.23–0.25) for adults and 0.04 (95% CI = 0.03–0.05) for juveniles. Both models suggested no differences in annual survival across years or among study areas, which included privately owned and public properties. Harvest was an additive mortality source for male wild turkeys, suggesting that managers interested in increasing annual survival of adult males could consider ways of reducing harvest rates.     

Accounting for tagging‐to‐harvest mortality in a Brownie tag‐recovery model by incorporating radio‐telemetry data

The Brownie tag‐recovery model is useful for estimating harvest rates but assumes all tagged individuals survive to the first hunting season; otherwise, mortality between time of tagging and the hunting season will cause the Brownie estimator to be negatively biased. Alternatively, fitting animals with radio transmitters can be used to accurately estimate harvest rate but may be more costly. We developed a joint model to estimate harvest and annual survival rates that combines known‐fate data from animals fitted with transmitters to estimate the probability of surviving the period from capture to the first hunting season, and data from reward‐tagged animals in a Brownie tag‐recovery model. We evaluated bias and precision of the joint estimator, and how to optimally allocate effort between animals fitted with radio transmitters and inexpensive ear tags or leg bands. Tagging‐to‐harvest survival rates from >20 individuals with radio transmitters combined with 50–100 reward tags resulted in an unbiased and precise estimator of harvest rates. In addition, the joint model can test whether transmitters affect an individual's probability of being harvested. We illustrate application of the model using data from wild turkey, Meleagris gallapavo, to estimate harvest rates, and data from white‐tailed deer, Odocoileus virginianus, to evaluate whether the presence of a visible radio transmitter is related to the probability of a deer being harvested. The joint known‐fate tag‐recovery model eliminates the requirement to capture and mark animals immediately prior to the hunting season to obtain accurate and precise estimates of harvest rate. In addition, the joint model can assess whether marking animals with radio transmitters affects the individual's probability of being harvested, caused by hunter selectivity or changes in a marked animal's behavior.     

Experimental harvest regulations reveal that water availability during spring,not harvest,affects change in a waterfowl population

Population change is regulated by vital rates that are influenced by environmental conditions, demographic stochasticity, and, increasingly, anthropogenic effects. Habitat destruction and climate change threaten the future of many wildlife populations, and there are additional concerns regarding the effects of harvest rates on demographic components of harvested organisms. Further, many population managers strictly manage harvest of wild organisms to mediate population trends of these populations. The goal of our study was to decouple harvest and environmental variability in a closely monitored population of wild ducks in North America, where we experimentally regulated harvest independently of environmental variation over a period of 4 years. We used 9 years of capture–mark–recapture data to estimate breeding population size during the spring for a population of wood ducks in Nevada. We then assessed the effect of one environmental variable and harvest pressure on annual changes in the breeding population size. Climatic conditions influencing water availability were strongly positively related to population growth rates of wood ducks in our study system. In contrast, harvest regulations and harvest rates did not affect population growth rates. We suggest efforts to conserve waterfowl should focus on the effects of habitat loss in breeding areas and climate change, which will likely affect precipitation regimes in the future. We demonstrate the utility of capture–mark–recapture methods to estimate abundance of species which are difficult to survey and test the impacts of anthropogenic harvest and climate on populations. Finally, our results continue to add to the importance of experimentation in applied conservation biology, where we believe that continued experiments on nonthreatened species will be critically important as researchers attempt to understand how to quantify and mitigate direct anthropogenic impacts in a changing world.     

Black Brant Harvest,Density Dependence,and Survival: A Record of Population Dynamics

ABSTRACT We analyzed 53 years of banding and band recovery data along with estimates of harvest and population size to assess the role of harvest and density dependence in survival patterns and population dynamics of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) over the period 1950–2003. The black brant population has declined steadily since complete annual surveys began in 1960, so the role of harvest in the dynamics of this population is of considerable interest. We used Brownie models implemented in Program MARK to analyze banding data. In some models, we incorporated estimated sport harvest to test hypotheses about the role of harvest in survival. We also examined the hypothesis of density-dependent regulation of mortality by incorporating estimates of population size as a covariate into models of survival. For a shorter period (1985–2003), we also assessed hypotheses about the role of subsistence harvest and predation as sources of mortality. The best supported model of variation in survival and band recovery allowed survival rates to vary among 2 age classes (juv, second-yr plus ad brant) and the 2 sexes. We constrained survival probabilities to be constant within decades but allowed them to vary among decades. We also constrained band recovery rates to be constant within decades and to vary in parallel among age and sex classes. We were limited to decade-specific estimates of survival and band recovery rates because some years before 1984 lacked any banding, and banding in some other years was sparse. A competitive model constrained survival estimates to be the same for males and females. No model containing harvest or population size was competitive with models lacking these covariates (relative quasi-Akaike's Information Criterion adjusted for small sample size [βQAIC_c] > 13). In the best supported model, band recovery rates declined from 0.038 ± 0.0028 (F) and 0.040 ± 0.0031 (M) to 0.007 ± 0.0007 (F) and 0.007 ± 0.0007 (M) between the 1950s and 2000s, a clear indication that harvest rates declined over this period. Survival rates increased from 0.70 ± 0.02 and 0.71 ± 0.02 for adult males and females, respectively, in the 1950s to 0.88 ± 0.009 and 0.88 ± 0.01 for males and females, respectively, in the 1990s. Survival rates in the 1990s were among the highest estimated for brant and did not increase in the 2000s with additional reductions in sport harvest. For the shorter data set from 1985 to 2003, models containing covariates for either sport or subsistence harvest were less competitive than models lacking these terms (βQAIC_c > 3). For the best model containing subsistence harvest, the estimate of β linking subsistence harvest to survival, although imprecisely estimated, was near zero (β = −0.04 ± 0.30), consistent with the hypothesis that subsistence harvest had little impact on survival during this period. We conclude that while harvest likely influenced survival and population dynamics in earlier decades, it is most likely that continued population decline at least since 1990 is a result of low recruitment.     

Estimation of a Nonlinear Density-Dependence Parameter for Wild Turkey

Abstract: Although previous research and theory has suggested that wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) populations may be subject to some form of density dependence, there has been no effort to estimate and incorporate a density-dependence parameter into wild turkey population models. To estimate a functional relationship for density dependence in wild turkey, we analyzed a set of harvest-index time series from 11 state wildlife agencies. We tested for lagged correlations between annual harvest indices using partial autocorrelation analysis. We assessed the ability of the density-dependent theta-Ricker model to explain harvest indices over time relative to exponential or random walk growth models. We tested the homogeneity of the density-dependence parameter estimates (θ) from 3 different harvest indices (spring harvest no. reported harvest/effort, survey harvest/effort) and calculated a weighted average based on each estimate's variance and its estimated covariance with the other indices. To estimate the potential bias in parameter estimates from measurement error, we conducted a simulation study using the theta-Ricker with known values and lognormally distributed measurement error. Partial autocorrelation function analysis indicated that harvest indices were significantly correlated only with their value at the previous time step. The theta-Ricker model performed better than the exponential growth or random walk models for all 3 indices. Simulation of known parameters and measurement error indicated a strong positive upward bias in the density-dependent parameter estimate, with increasing measurement error. The average density-dependence estimate, corrected for measurement error ranged 0.25 ≤ θC ≤ 0.49, depending on the amount of measurement error and assumed spring harvest rate. We infer that density dependence is nonlinear in wild turkey, where growth rates are maximized at 39-42% of carrying capacity. The annual yield produced by density-dependent population growth will tend to be less than that caused by extrinsic environmental factors. This study indicates that both density-dependent and density-independent processes are important to wild turkey population growth, and we make initial suggestions on incorporating both into harvest management strategies.     

Evaluating Differences in Harvest Data Used in the Sex-Age-Kill Deer Population Model

Abstract: A steady increase in archery hunting participation and frequent changes in hunter regulations led to an evaluation of harvest data used in a common white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) population model. Our goal was to determine if model parameters and population estimates traditionally estimated solely by firearm harvest data were biased with respect to altered sex and age ratios brought about by increases in archery hunting and harvest success. The sex-age-kill (SAK) model, commonly used by state agencies, was developed in the mid-1900s when deer numbers were low and firearm harvest was predominant. Management actions were concentrated on increasing deer numbers, and model assumptions relied heavily on a stable age distribution and a minimal antlerless deer harvest. We evaluated the reliance of SAK in a modern hunting scenario using a 10-year dataset obtained from Michigan, USA, that encompassed a variety of climatic regions, hunting seasons, and regulation scenarios. We found that firearm and archery harvest sex and age ratios differed among 5 geographic groups and study years for males, females, and fawns (P<0.001, P = 0.001, and P = 0.037, respectively). Also, the addition of archery harvest data increased population estimates but did not alter overall trends. We recommend that managers reassess harvest-based population estimates in 2 situations: 1) if regulation changes affect antlerless deer harvest, and 2) when trends in hunter success rates cause fluctuations in harvest data.