Identifying Predators and Nest Fates of Bobwhites in Southern Texas

Abstract: Predation is the primary cause of nest failure for northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus). There are few reliable data documenting the species diversity and relative importance of bobwhite nest predators in southern Texas, USA. We used infrared video-monitoring systems to document nest fates of 127 bobwhite nests over 4 nesting seasons from 2002 to 2005 in southern Texas. A majority of depredation events (83%) were caused by 4 species: coyote (Canis latrans), striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis), southern fire ant (Solenopsis xyloni), and badger (Taxidea taxus). Observed bobwhite nest fates for the study period were 0.50 successful, 0.34 depredated, and 0.16 abandoned or undetermined. A universal approach to mitigating nest predation is not likely to be applicable in regions similar to southern Texas, with high nest-predator diversity (e.g., fire ants, rodents, and mammalian carnivores). We believe that infrared video surveillance is a valuable tool for documenting baseline information on predator context and nest fate for many avian species, considering the limitations of past methods (e.g., postfate evidence).     

Impacts of introduced grasses on breeding season habitat use by northern bobwhite in the South Texas plains

Introduced grasses may affect diversity of native fauna and flora adversely, and disrupt ecosystem processes. Many rangelands in South Texas have been seeded to or have been colonized by buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare) and Lehmann lovegrass (Eragrostis lehmanniana), perennial bunchgrasses native to Africa. The objective of this research was to quantify impacts that these 2 species of introduced grasses may have on northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) habitat use on South Texas rangelands during the breeding period (Apr–Aug). We evaluated the effects of buffelgrass and Lehmann lovegrass on northern bobwhite nest habitat (n = 35 nests) and general habitat use sites (n = 86 radiomarked quail) with logistic regression and habitat selection functions based on simple saddlepoint approximations. Buffelgrass was used as a nesting substrate at 11% of nests; however, vegetation height and visual obstruction between 1 cm and 30 cm were the best predictors of nest site use. Areas of introduced grass coverage ≥15–20% were avoided by northern bobwhites at general habitat use organism-centered points, but not at nest site use points. Introduced grass coverage and forb coverage were the best predictors of general habitat use, and bobwhites avoided areas with ≥18% introduced grass cover. These results suggest that avoidance of areas with extensive introduced grass cover may indicate a reduction in usable habitat space for northern bobwhite in the western South Texas plains. Maintaining native grass stands while implementing localized control of introduced grasses could be used as a strategy to promote habitat for northern bobwhites. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Exclosure fences around nests of imperiled Florida Grasshopper Sparrows reduce rates of predation by mammals

Increasing nest survival by excluding predators is a goal of many bird conservation programs. However, new exclosure projects should be carefully evaluated to assess the potential risks of disturbance. We tested the effectiveness of predator exclosure fences (hereafter, fences) for nests of critically endangered Florida Grasshopper Sparrows (Ammodramus savannarum floridanus) at a dry prairie site (Three Lakes; 2015–2018) and a pasture site (the Ranch; 2015–2016) in Osceola County, Florida, USA. We installed fences at nests an average of 8 days after the start of incubation, and nest abandonment after fence installation was rare (2 of 149 installations). Predation was the leading cause of failure for unfenced nests at both sites (48–73%). At Three Lakes, nest cameras revealed that mammals and snakes were responsible for 61.5% and 38.5% of predation events, respectively, at unfenced nests. Fences reduced the daily probability of predation (0.016 for fenced nests vs. 0.074 for unfenced nests). The probability that a fenced nest would survive from discovery to fledging was more than double that of unfenced nests (60.4% vs. 27.7%). However, we found no difference in daily nest survival at the Ranch between the year before nests were fenced (2015; 0.874) and the year when all but one nest were fenced (2016; 0.867) because red imported fire ants (Solenopsis invicta) were responsible for 86% of predation events at fenced nests at the Ranch. The use of cameras at fenced nests revealed that site‐specific differences in nest predators explained variation in fence efficiency between sites. Our fence design may be useful for other species of grassland birds, but site‐specific predator communities and species‐specific response of target bird species to fences should be assessed before installing fences at other sites.     

Do seasonal patterns of rat snake (Pantherophis obsoletus) and black racer (Coluber constrictor) activity predict avian nest predation?

Avian nest success often varies seasonally and because predation is the primary cause of nest failure, seasonal variation in predator activity has been hypothesized to explain seasonal variation in nest success. Despite the fact that nest predator communities are often diverse, recent evidence from studies of snakes that are nest predators has lent some support to the link between snake activity and nest predation. However, the strength of the relationship has varied among studies. Explaining this variation is difficult, because none of these studies directly identified nest predators, the link between predator activity and nest survival was inferred. To address this knowledge gap, we examined seasonal variation in daily survival rates of 463 bird nests (of 17 bird species) and used cameras to document predator identity at 137 nests. We simultaneously quantified seasonal activity patterns of two local snake species (N = 30 individuals) using manual (2136 snake locations) and automated (89,165 movements detected) radiotelemetry. Rat snakes (Pantherophis obsoletus), the dominant snake predator at the site (~28% of observed nest predations), were most active in late May and early June, a pattern reported elsewhere for this species. When analyzing all monitored nests, we found no link between nest predation and seasonal activity of rat snakes. When analyzing only nests with known predator identities (filmed nests), however, we found that rat snakes were more likely to prey on nests during periods when they were moving the greatest distances. Similarly, analyses of all monitored nests indicated that nest survival was not linked to racer activity patterns, but racer‐specific predation (N = 17 nests) of filmed nests was higher when racers were moving the greatest distances. Our results suggest that the activity of predators may be associated with higher predation rates by those predators, but that those effects can be difficult to detect when nest predator communities are diverse and predator identities are not known. Additionally, our results suggest that hand‐tracking of snakes provides a reliable indicator of predator activity that may be more indicative of foraging behavior than movement frequency provided by automated telemetry systems.     

Black-capped vireo nest predator assemblage and predictors for nest predation

Nest predation is a major limiting factor for songbird productivity, including the federally endangered black-capped vireo (Vireo atricapilla). However, nest predator information is limited across the range of the black-capped vireo in central and southwest Texas. We monitored nests in 3 counties within the breeding range of black-capped vireos in Texas in 2008 and 2009 and used continuous recording digital video cameras to record predation events. We video-monitored 115 nests and documented 39 predation events by at least 9 predator species. Overall, we observed avian species (51%, n = 39), specifically brown-headed cowbirds (Molothrus ater; n = 12), and snakes (26%, n = 39) as the most frequent nest predators. The estimated daily nest survival rate during the laying and incubation stage was 0.985 (95% CI = 0.967–0.993) and 0.944 (95% CI = 0.921–0.961) during the nestling stage. In addition, we analyzed models of predator-specific nest predation using multinomial logistic regression. Effect of nest height on predation rate was significant for snakes; nest stage was significant for nests depredated by avian predators. By identifying and increasing our knowledge of nest predators and vegetation characteristics associated with greater risk of predation in multiple locations within the black-capped vireo's range, we can effectively manage habitat to benefit recovery efforts of the species. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Power lines,roads, and avian nest survival: effects on predator identity and predation intensity

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Predators of Greater Sage‐Grouse nests identified by video monitoring

ABSTRACT Nest predation is the primary cause of nest failure for Greater Sage‐Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), but the identity of their nest predators is often uncertain. Confirming the identity of these predators may be useful in enhancing management strategies designed to increase nest success. From 2002 to 2005, we monitored 87 Greater Sage‐Grouse nests (camera, N= 55; no camera, N= 32) in northeastern Nevada and south‐central Idaho and identified predators at 17 nests, with Common Ravens (Corvus corax) preying on eggs at 10 nests and American badgers (Taxidea taxis) at seven. Rodents were frequently observed at grouse nests, but did not prey on grouse eggs. Because sign left by ravens and badgers was often indistinguishable following nest predation, identifying nest predators based on egg removal, the presence of egg shells, or other sign was not possible. Most predation occurred when females were on nests. Active nest defense by grouse was rare and always unsuccessful. Continuous video monitoring of Sage‐Grouse nests permitted unambiguous identification of nest predators. Additional monitoring studies could help improve our understanding of the causes of Sage‐Grouse nest failure in the face of land‐use changes in the Intermountain West.     

Snake predation on North American bird nests: culprits,patterns and future directions

Predation is the leading cause of nest failure for most birds. Thus, for ornithologists interested in the causes and consequences of variation in nest success, knowing the identity and understanding the behavior of dominant nest predators is likely to be important. Video documentation of nests has shown that snakes are frequent predators. Here we reviewed 53 North American studies that used nest cameras and used these data to identify broad patterns in snake predation. Snakes accounted for 26% (range: 0–90%) of recorded predation events, with values exceeding 35% in a third of studies. Snakes were more frequent nest predators at lower latitudes and less frequent in forested habitat relative to other nest predators. Although 12 species of snakes have been identified as nest predators, ratsnakes Elaphe obsoleta, corn snakes E. guttata and fox snakes E. vulpina were the most frequent, accounting for > 70% of all recorded nest predation events by snakes and have been documented preying on nests in 30–65% of studies conducted within their geographic ranges. Endotherm‐specialist snakes (Elaphe and Pituophis genera) were more likely to depredate nests in forests and the canopy relative to other snakes, due to their affinity for edge habitat. Predation by only ratsnakes and corn snakes was predominantly nocturnal and only ratsnakes were more likely to prey on nests during the nestling stage. Snakes were not identified to species in over 30% of predation events, underlining the need for more complete reporting of results. A review of research to date suggests the best approach to investigating factors that bring snakes and nests into contact involves combining nesting studies with radio tracking of locally important snake nest predators.     

Wait Until Dark? Daily Activity Patterns and Nest Predation by Snakes

Predation involves costs and benefits, so predators should employ tactics that reduce their risk of injury or death and that increase their success at capturing prey. One potential way that predators could decrease risk and increase benefits is by attacking prey at night when risks may be reduced and prey more vulnerable. Because some snakes are facultatively nocturnal and prey on bird nests during the day and night, they are ideal for assessing the costs and benefits of diurnal vs. nocturnal predation. We used automated radiotelemetry and cameras to investigate predation on nesting birds by two species of snakes, one diurnal and the other facultatively nocturnal. We predicted that snakes preying on nests at night should experience less parental nest defence and capture more adults and nestlings. Rat snakes (Pantherophis obsoletus) were relatively inactive at night (23–36% activity) but nearly always preyed on nests after dark (80% of nest predations). Conversely, racers (Coluber constrictor) were exclusively diurnal and preyed on nests during the times of day they were most active. These results are consistent with rat snakes strategically using their capacity for facultative nocturnal activity to prey on nests at night. The likely benefit is reduced nest defence because birds defended their nests less vigourously at night. Consistent with nocturnal predation being safer, rat snake predation events lasted three times longer at night than during the day (26 vs. 8 min). Nocturnal nest predation did not make nests more profitable by increasing the likelihood of capturing adults or removing premature fledging of nestlings. The disconnect between rat snake activity and timing of nest predation seems most consistent with rat snakes locating prey during the day using visual cues but waiting until dark to prey on nests when predation is safer, although designing a direct test of this hypothesis will be challenging.     

Nest desertion by Grey Fantails during nest building in response to perceived predation risk

ABSTRACT Grey Fantails (Rhipidura albiscapa), a common Australian flycatcher, commonly desert their nests before egg‐laying. We tested the hypothesis that Grey Fantails desert incomplete nests in response to the attention of predators by placing a mounted Pied Currawong (Strepera graculina), a common nest predator, near fantail nests that were under construction. As a control, we placed a mounted King Parrot (Alisteris scapularis), a nonpredatory bird similar in size to Pied Currawongs, near other fantail nests. Four of six female fantails (67%) deserted incomplete nests in response to the presentation of the Pied Currawong. In contrast, none of the seven females presented with a mounted King Parrot deserted. Female Grey Fantails may use the attention of a predator at the nest during the building stage as a cue to desert. Such desertion may be adaptive for Grey Fantails because currawongs are large predators, making successful nest defense unlikely, and they also present considerable risk to adults. In addition, fantails may raise multiple broods during a breeding season and, therefore, have a high renesting potential.     

Incidental nest predation in freshwater turtles: inter- and intraspecific differences in vulnerability are explained by relative crypsis

There has long been interest in the influence of predators on prey populations, although most predator–prey studies have focused on prey species that are targets of directed predator searching. Conversely, few have addressed depredation that occurs after incidental encounters with predators. We tested two predictions stemming from the hypothesis that nest predation on two sympatric freshwater turtle species whose nests are differentially prone to opportunistic detection—painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) and snapping turtles (Chelydra serpentina)—is incidental: (1) predation rates should be density independent, and (2) individual predators should not alter their foraging behavior after encountering nests. After monitoring nest survival and predator behavior following nest depredation over 2 years, we confirmed that predation by raccoons (Procyon lotor), the primary nest predators in our study area, matched both predictions. Furthermore, cryptic C. picta nests were victimized with lower frequency than more detectable C. serpentina nests, and nests of both species were more vulnerable in human-modified areas where opportunistic nest discovery is facilitated. Despite apparently being incidental, predation on nests of both species was intensive (57% for painted turtles, 84% for snapping turtles), and most depredations occurred within 1 day of nest establishment. By implication, predation need not be directed to affect prey demography, and factors influencing prey crypsis are drivers of the impact of incidental predation on prey. Our results also imply that efforts to conserve imperiled turtle populations in human-modified landscapes should include restoration of undisturbed conditions that are less likely to expose nests to incidental predators.     

Predators at bird nests in a northern hardwood forest in New Hampshire

ABSTRACT.   Nest predation is the primary cause of nest failure in most passerine birds, and increases in nest predation associated with anthropogenic habitat disturbance are invoked as explanations for population declines of some bird species. In most cases, however, the identity of the nest predators is not known with certainty. We monitored active bird nests with infrared time-lapse video cameras to determine which nest predators were responsible for depredating bird nests in northern New Hampshire. We monitored 64 nests of 11 bird species during three breeding seasons, and identified seven species of predators during 14 predation events. In addition, we recorded two instances of birds defending nests from predators and, in both cases, these nests were ultimately lost to predation. These results contrast with other studies in terms of the relatively high proportion of nests depredated by raptors and mice, as well as the absence of any predation by snakes. The diverse suite of predators in this and other studies is likely to confound our understanding of patterns of nest predation relative to fragmentation and habitat structure.     

Nest predators of woodland open-nesting songbirds in central Europe

I used time-lapse videotaping to identify predators of open songbird nests in fragmented deciduous woodland (nine plots, 2–10 ha each) in the Czech Republic from 2002 to 2006. I documented 22 species of predators at 171 nests of 13 species (mainly Blackcap Sylvia atricapilla , Song Thrush Turdus philomelos , Common Blackbird Turdus merula , Yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella and Chaffinch Fringilla coelebs ). The main predators were Pine Marten Martes martes (37% of 178 predation events), Jay Garrulus glandarius (29%), Buzzard Buteo buteo (7%) and Great Spotted Woodpecker Dendrocopos major (7%); mammals accounted for 48% of total predation. At least 3% of nests were depredated by multiple predators. In spite of their local abundance, Hooded Crows Corvus cornix did not present a serious threat for shrub nesting songbirds (< 1% of total predation). No predation by mice was recorded, suggesting that their importance has been overestimated in artificial nest studies. The proportional species composition of predators depended on which species occupied the monitored nest and location (study plot), but not on the year or the time of season. Corvids and raptors accounted for a relatively larger percentage of total predation of small ('warblers') and large ('thrushes') prey species, respectively, whereas carnivores were important predators of all prey species. Active nests of thrushes were only rarely robbed by Jays (< 4% of 52 events), presumably due to parental nest defence. Predation by woodpeckers was spatially clumped, probably due to individual foraging specialization. Predation by the other major predators was documented on most/all study plots.     

Effects of predator exclusion on nest and hatchling survival in the gopher tortoise

Gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) populations are declining throughout the Southeast, and high levels of predation on nests and juveniles have been suggested as a potential contributor to this decline. Therefore, we documented gopher tortoise nest success and hatchling survival relative to mammalian predator control. We used 4, large (approx. 40-ha) fenced, predator exclosures to exclude mid-sized mammalian predators: bobcat (Lynx rufus), raccoon (Procyon lotor), Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginianus), fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus and Vulpes vulpes), coyote (Canis latrans), nine-banded armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus), and skunk (Mephitis mephitis); 4 unfenced plots served as controls. We monitored nests for survival through hatching and used radio-telemetry to examine hatchling survival. We radio-tracked 40 hatchlings for up to 329 days, but we were only able to track 8 individuals from a single nest at an unfenced plot because of high nest predation. Mean nest survival was greater at exclosures than at unfenced controls (F_{1, 2} = 45.80, P = 0.0001). Hatchling survival differed (χ² = 5.839, P = 0.016) between unfenced plots (37.5%) and exclosures (74.4%), suggesting that mammals also were significant predators of hatchlings. The number of juvenile (<13 cm in diameter) and subadult tortoise burrows (13–21.9 cm) increased over a 6-year period in exclosures, providing further support for an effect of excluding mammalian predators on nest and juvenile tortoise survival. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Evidence of selection for egg crypsis in conspicuous nests

ABSTRACT The value of egg coloration as crypsis, once accepted as a general principle, has recently been questioned because most experiments have failed to show that egg coloration deters predation. The nest‐crypsis hypothesis postulates that, among species that build conspicuous nests, selection for egg crypsis is relaxed or absent because visually searching predators detect nests prior to eggs. I tested the nest‐crypsis hypothesis using the large, relatively conspicuous nests of American Robins (Turdus migratorius), and eggs that differed markedly in color that were collected from the nests of Red‐winged Blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus), Brewer's Blackbirds (Euphagus cyanocephalus), and Yellow‐headed Blackbirds (Xanthocephalus xanthocephalus). Each nest (N= 22) received a clutch of each species during three sequential predation trials that were 16 d in duration. The order of clutch presentation was randomized for each nest. Survival trends for Brewer's and Yellow‐headed Blackbirds were similar, and higher than those for clutches of Red‐winged Blackbirds. By the end of trials, overall survival of the three clutch types was roughly equivalent. However, clutches of Red‐winged Blackbird eggs, the most conspicuous egg type to the human eye, were discovered sooner by predators. Because the experimental design controlled for effects of nest crypsis, nest location, and nest size, this difference in egg survival can be attributed to differences in egg pigmentation. Thus, my results support a role for egg coloration as camouflage in conspicuous nests.     

Vegetation structure influences predation rates of early nests in subarctic breeding waders

Ground-nesting species are vulnerable to a wide range of predators and often experience very high levels of nest predation. Strategies to reduce nest vulnerability can include concealing nests in vegetation and/or nesting in locations in which nests and eggs are camouflaged and less easy for predators to locate. These strategies could have important implications for the distribution of ground-nesting species and the success rates of nests in areas with differing vegetation structure. However, the factors influencing the success of nest concealment and camouflage strategies in ground-nesting species are complex. Here we explore the effects of local vegetation structure and extent of nest concealment on nest predation rates in a range of ground-nesting, sympatric wader species with differing nest concealment strategies (open-nest species: Oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus, Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria and Whimbrel Numenius phaeopus; concealed-nest species: Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa, Redshank Tringa totanus and Snipe Gallinago gallinago) in south Iceland, in landscapes that comprise substantial variability in vegetation structure at a range of scales. We monitored 469 nests of these six wader species in 2015 and 2016 and ~40% of these nests were predated. Nest predation rates were similar for open-nest and concealed-nest species and did not vary with vegetation structure in the surrounding landscape, but nest-concealing species were ~10% more likely to have nests predated when they were poorly concealed, and the frequency of poorly concealed nests was higher in colder conditions at the start of the breeding season. For concealed-nest species, the reduced capacity to hide nests in colder conditions is likely to reflect low rates of vegetation growth in such conditions. The ongoing trend for warmer springs at subarctic latitudes could result in more rapid vegetation growth, with consequent increases in the success rates of early nests of concealed-nest species. Temperature-related effects on nest concealment from predators could thus be an important mechanism through which climate change affecting vegetation could have population-level impacts on breeding birds at higher latitudes.     

Effects of Mesopredators on Nest Survival of Shrub-Nesting Songbirds

ABSTRACT Although nest predation is often the single largest source of mortality in avian populations, manipulative studies to determine predator impacts on nest survival are rare, particularly studies that examine impacts of mid-size mammalian predators (hereafter, mesopredators) on nest survival of shrub-nesting birds. We quantified nest survival and identified nest predators of shrub-nesting songbirds within 4 large (approx. 40-ha) exclosures and 4 control sites within a longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem. During 2003–2006, we located and monitored 535 shrub nests (222 with videography) for 4,804 nest-days to quantify daily nest survival and document predation events. We found no support for a treatment effect, suggesting mesopredators had little impact on daily nest survival (0.9303 in controls and 0.9260 in exclosures) of shrub-nesting songbirds. For the 5 most commonly monitored species, daily nest survival within species was constant. Our analysis suggested that shrub nests were most vulnerable during the nestling stage and presence of cameras on nests increased survival with the increase in survival being more pronounced during the incubation stage. We filmed 107 nest predation events, identifying predators at 88 nests. Of these 88 nests, snakes caused 33%, red imported fire ants (hereafter fire ants, Solenopsis invicta) 28%, raptors 17%, corvids 8%, mesopredators 6%, and small mammals 8% of nest predations. Cause-specific nest predation in controls and exclosures did not differ from expectation, providing evidence that compensatory predation did not occur. Nest predators differed from expectation with regard to nest stage; fire ants and raptors only depredated nests during the nestling stage. Presence of cameras had no effect on nest abandonment. Fire ants were the most prevalent nest predator, and nest predation by fire ants was only observed on nestlings, potentially reducing likelihood of renesting. Magnitude and timing of fire ant predation suggests that fire ants may be the most influential nest predator of shrub-nesting birds within the longleaf pine ecosystem. Our data suggest that controlling mesopredators will have no effect on nest success of shrub-nesting birds within longleaf pine forests.     

REPRODUCTION BY NORTHERN BOBWHITES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA

Abstract: We studied northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus) in western Oklahoma, USA, during the nesting seasons of 1992–2001. We obtained latitude-specific information on nesting biology and tested hypotheses on the cause of declines in clutch size with progression of the nesting season and on the phenological relation of first, second, and third nesting attempts. For pooled data on bobwhites alive during 15 April-15 September, 64 ± 6.5% of juvenile females (n = 56), 90 ± 10.0% of adult females (n = 9), 13 ± 4.1% of juveniles males (n = 68), and 41 ± 10.7% of adult males (n = 22) incubated ≥ 1 nest. Bobwhites that entered the reproduction period starting on 15 April (n = 229) accumulated 203 nesting attempts (male and female incubations), which translated to 1.7 attempts/hen for all hens that entered (n = 117) and 3.1 attempts/hen for hens that survived to 15 September (n = 65). Overall success for incubated nests (48 ± 2.8%, n = 331) was independent of sex-age class and nesting attempt (1, 2, 3), but it declined at a rate of 2.37%/year (95% CL = 1.10–3.64%/year) during the study. Clutch size declined by 1 egg for every 14–20 elapsed days in the nesting season and the rate of decline was independent of incubation attempt (1 or 2); this result suggests that lower clutch sizes later in the nest season were not necessarily a function of re-nesting. Ending of nest-incubation attempts (1, 2, 3) occurred within an 8-day period from 26 August-2 September. Our results implied that early-season nesting cover is a management concern and that high nest success is possible in the absence of nest predator suppression where abundant nest sites occur across the landscape.     

Simulating northern bobwhite population responses to nest predation,nesting habitat,and weather in south Texas

Nest predation is thought to be one of the major factors limiting northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) populations. We examined the relative impact of altering nest-predation rate, nesting habitat, and weather (i.e., temp and precipitation) on northern bobwhite population dynamics in a hypothetical 15,000-ha subtropical-rangeland ecosystem in south Texas using a simulation model. The systems model consisted of a 3-stage (i.e., eggs, juv, and ad) bobwhite population with dynamics influenced by variables affecting production, recruitment, nest predation, and mortality. We based model parameters on data collected from a 3-yr nest-predator study employing infrared-camera technology, from ongoing field research using a radio-marked population of wild bobwhites, and from the literature. The baseline simulated bobwhite population dynamics corresponded closely to empirical data, with no difference between medians of simulated (n = 30 yr) and observed bobwhite age ratios over a 28-yr period. Similarly, a time-series comparison of simulated and observed age ratios showed most (89%) observed values fell within the 5th and 95th percentiles of the simulated data over the 28-yr period. We created simulated population scenarios representing 1) baseline historical conditions, 2) predator control, 3) low precipitation, 4) low precipitation with predator control, 5) high temperature, 6) high temperature with predator control, 7) reduced nest-clump availability, and 8) reduced nest-clump availability with predator control that resulted in considerably different median bobwhite densities over 10 yr. For example, under simulated predator control, populations increased by about 55% from the baseline scenario, whereas under simulated reduced nest-clump availability, populations decreased by about 75% from the baseline scenario. Comparisons of time-series for each scenario showed that reduced nest-clump availability, low precipitation, and high temperature reduced bobwhite densities to a larger degree compared to a natural nest predation rate. Reduced nest-clump availability resulted in the most substantial decline of simulated bobwhite densities. Simulations suggested that management efforts should focus on maintaining adequate nest-clump availability and then possibly consider nest predator control as a secondary priority. © 2010 The Wildlife Society     

Accuracy of nest fate classification and predator identification from evidence at nests of Least Terns and Piping Plovers

For federally listed species such as Least Tern Sternula antillarum and Piping Plover Charadrius melodus, correct determination of nest fates and causes of nest failure is crucial for understanding population dynamics and improving monitoring programmes. We used video cameras to evaluate nest fate misclassification rate and to identify factors that may cause researchers monitoring nests at different intervals to classify Least Tern and Piping Plover nest fates incorrectly. During the 2013–2015 breeding seasons, we installed miniature surveillance cameras at 65 of 294 Least Tern and 89 of 551 Piping Plover nests under observation on the Missouri River in North Dakota. Nest fates were assigned in the field from remains found at the nest‐site and then again by an independent researcher who reviewed camera footage. We used ordinal logistic regressions to examine whether monitoring interval, clutch age or temporal factors influenced a correct, partially misclassified (probable successful in the field vs. successful by camera) or misclassified nest fate classification. During a 7‐day monitoring interval between visits, 45% of nests were partially and 27.5% were fully misclassified. The percentage of partially (20%) and fully (8.0%) misclassified nests decreased with a more intensive (3‐day) monitoring schedule. Researchers were also less likely to correctly classify nest fates for Least Terns than for Piping Plovers, and as clutch age and monitoring interval increased for both species. Furthermore, causes of failure (e.g. predators, weather) as determined from field evidence vs. video disagreed for 53.5% of nests. The ability to identify accurately nest fate and cause of nest failure will facilitate a better understanding of factors that limit productivity and will lead to better informed management decisions for improving nest survival.