Dendroclimatic evaluation of climate-growth relationships of Meyer spruce (Picea meyeri) on a sandy substrate in semi-arid grassland, north China

Dendroclimatic techniques were used to assess the climate-growth relationships of refugial Meyer spruce (Picea meyeri Rehd. et Wils.) on a sandy substrate in semi-arid grassland of north China. Statistical analysis of the tree-ring data showed a mean series intercorrelation of 0.47, a signal-to-noise ratio of 14.44, and a mean sensitivity of 0.18, indicating suitability for climatic analysis. Radial growth was positively correlated with precipitation in February and May of the current year, and in September of the preceding year. However, radial growth of Meyer spruce also correlated negatively with mean monthly temperature in current May, of which mean maximum temperature explained most of the observed variation. In addition, radial growth negatively correlated with solar radiation over most of the year. Rainfall appeared to be the dominant growth-limiting factor in this semi-arid grassland, with temperature and solar radiation being of lesser importance. This study suggests that Meyer spruce in this stand is promising for dendroclimatic and ecological studies because of good cross-dating characteristics and high sensitivity to climate.     

Intra-annual radial growth of Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey) and its response to climate on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains

Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey.) is widely distributed in the Tianshan Mountains. In this study, four Schrenk spruce trees were continuously monitored with dendrometers from 27 April to 30 September 2014 on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains in northwest China. The goal of this monitoring study was to determine the main growing season of Schrenk spruce and to analyze intra-annual radial growth variability and its relation to daily meteorological factors. Our studies have shown that the critical growing season of Schrenk spruce is from late May to late July and that the rapid growth stage is from mid-June to early July. Meanwhile, in the growing season, changes in the radial growth of Schrenk spruce were negatively correlated with daily temperature, evaporation, sunshine hours and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and were positively correlated with precipitation and relative humidity (RH). The correlation coefficient between radial growth and RH can be as high as 0.750 (Pearson, p < 0.0001, n = 60). Dates in which precipitation occurred corresponded to periods of rapid growth. The results of the climate-growth analysis show that changes in radial growth reflect the effect of water stress on tree growth, whether or not the changes are positively or negatively correlated with the above climatic factors. This indicates that moisture plays a major role in the growth of Schrenk spruce. We suggest that precipitation between late May to late June is a limiting factor for radial growth of Schrenk spruce on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains.     

天山云杉种群空间格局与动态

天山云杉(Picea schrenkiana)林是天山林区的重要针叶林。研究调查了两块分别代表天山云杉不同演替阶段的标准地,应用Ripley’s K系数法研究了天山云杉种群空间格局与动态。结果表明：天山云杉是聚集型种群,天山云杉活立木、枯死木、天山桦(Betula tianschanica Rupr．)和天山柳(Salix tianschanica Rgl．)的空间格局均为聚集型;天山云杉枯死木的聚集强度大于天山云杉活立木的聚集强度;天山桦和天山柳的聚集强度大于天山云杉枯死木的聚集强度;天山桦和天山柳的空间格局随种群所处的演替阶段不同而不同,增长型种群在所有尺度上其空间格局都为聚集型,在大于70m尺度上表现为均匀格局,而天山云杉成熟林中的天山桦和天山柳只在小尺度(0～40m)上表现为聚集。随着天山云杉的生长,其聚集强度逐渐减小,聚集半径不断增大。从50a以下天山云杉到50～100a的天山云杉其聚集强度急速减小,这有利于天山云杉幼树获得足够的资源,是天山云杉幼树的一种生存策略或适应机制。150a以上天山云杉的聚集强度增加,这是由于天山云杉生长到150a左右时开始出现成熟后死亡,形成林窗有利于天山云杉林的更新。研究还对Ripley’s K系数法和频次检验法进行了比较,Ripley’s K系数法能够分析各种尺度下的种群空间格局,且不受样方大小的影响,结果清楚、直观。     

Rabies in Kazakhstan

BackgroundRabies is a neglected zoonotic disease. There is a sparsity of data on this disease with regard to the incidence of human and animal disease in many low and middle income countries. Furthermore, rabies results in a large economic impact and a high human burden of disease. Kazakhstan is a large landlocked middle income country that gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 and is endemic for rabies.Conclusions/SignificanceThis study demonstrates that in Kazakhstan there is a substantial economic cost and health impact of rabies. These costs could be reduced by modifying the vaccination programme that is now practised. The study also fills some data gaps on the epidemiology and economic effects of rabies in respect to Kazakhstan.     

Temporal instability in tree-growth/climate response in the Lower Bavarian Forest region: implications for dendroclimatic reconstruction

This paper explores the temporal stability of growth/climate relationships in ring-width chronologies of Norway spruce [ Picea abies (L.) Karst] and silver fir ( Abies alba Mill) in the Lower Bavarian Forest region in southern Germany. These chronologies were compiled, using both historic and living tree-ring data, with the main aim of developing a dendroclimatic reconstruction for the region covering the last 500 years. Moving window correlation analysis shows that prior to the twentieth century, both species co-vary in a similar way (1480–1899 mean r =0.66). There is no significant correlation between the species chronologies since ca. 1930, which partly reflects anomalous growth trends in the fir chronology since ca. 1960. Multiple regression analysis was utilised to assess the ability of both species chronologies to model March–August precipitation. The precipitation signal of the spruce data was found to be both stronger than the fir data (1872–1930 calibration: r ²=0.45 vs 0.25) and more time stable. After ca. 1930, the fir chronology loses it ability to model March–August precipitation until there is no climate signal at all in the fir data in recent decades. The spruce data also express a later weakening in their climate signal in the mid 1970s. We present compelling evidence indicating that the anomalous trends observed in the fir data, since the mid 1960s, appear to be predominantly related to local SO₂ emissions from power plants and refineries. It is also likely that this local anthropogenic forcing is the cause of the weakening of the climate signal in the spruce data since the mid 1970s. The conclusions from this study are: (1) The fir tree-ring data cannot be used for traditional dendroclimatic calibration, although prior to the twentieth century the decadal variability in the fir data is very similar to spruce and so these data could be used to extend potential reconstructions in the future; (2) The recent decline and recovery event in the fir data appears to be unique to the twentieth century and is not part of a natural episodic phenomenon; (3) Traditional dendroclimatic calibration of March–August precipitation will be made using solely the spruce ring-width data. However, due to SO₂ forcing in recent decades, the calibration period will be shortened to the 1871–1978 period.     

Exploring the growth response of Norway spruce (Picea abies) along a small-scale gradient of soil water supply

The climate-growth response of specific sites and species is one of the main research subjects in classic tree ring studies. Traditional sampling approaches therefore aim at maximizing the climate signal of the analyzed tree ring series, which is typically achieved by focusing on dominant trees or on sites located in particularly temperature or moisture limited environments. However, there is increasing evidence that these selective sampling strategies cannot yield chronologies that are representative for entire populations. One promising approach to gain a deeper understanding of forest dynamics and climate-growth responsiveness is the analysis of climate signal ranges among trees. This individualistic approach requires random sampling and the integration of information on small-scale heterogeneities in site and tree characteristics. Here, we analyze the climate-growth response of 144 Norway spruce trees (Picea abies Karst.) on difference levels of data aggregation. The aim of our study is to investigate the relevance of small-scale heterogeneities in site conditions, particularly in soil water supply, for the detected climate-growth signal. We identify soil water supply and site characteristics, which indirectly modify the water availability for trees, as dominating growth factors across scales. The driest sites show the strongest climate-growth reaction, while the growth response of wetter sites is weak or even insignificant. Therefore, we conclude that integrating small-scale information on site characteristics, particularly on soil water supply, can help to gain a deeper understanding of species specific growth limitations.     

Plasticity in Dendroclimatic Response across the Distribution Range of Aleppo Pine (Pinus halepensis)

We investigated the variability of the climate-growth relationship of Aleppo pine across its distribution range in the Mediterranean Basin. We constructed a network of tree-ring index chronologies from 63 sites across the region. Correlation function analysis identified the relationships of tree-ring index to climate factors for each site. We also estimated the dominant climatic gradients of the region using principal component analysis of monthly, seasonal, and annual mean temperature and total precipitation from 1,068 climatic gridpoints. Variation in ring width index was primarily related to precipitation and secondarily to temperature. However, we found that the dendroclimatic relationship depended on the position of the site along the climatic gradient. In the southern part of the distribution range, where temperature was generally higher and precipitation lower than the regional average, reduced growth was also associated with warm and dry conditions. In the northern part, where the average temperature was lower and the precipitation more abundant than the regional average, reduced growth was associated with cool conditions. Thus, our study highlights the substantial plasticity of Aleppo pine in response to different climatic conditions. These results do not resolve the source of response variability as being due to either genetic variation in provenance, to phenotypic plasticity, or a combination of factors. However, as current growth responses to inter-annual climate variability vary spatially across existing climate gradients, future climate-growth relationships will also likely be determined by differential adaptation and/or acclimation responses to spatial climatic variation. The contribution of local adaptation and/or phenotypic plasticity across populations to the persistence of species under global warming could be decisive for prediction of climate change impacts across populations. In this sense, a more complex forest dynamics modeling approach that includes the contribution of genetic variation and phenotypic plasticity can improve the reliability of the ecological inferences derived from the climate-growth relationships.     

川西亚高山不同年龄紫果云杉径向生长对气候因子的响应

运用树木年轮气候学的基本方法,建立王朗自然保护区紫果云杉在集中分布上限区域的年轮宽度年表,选取差值年表分析不同年龄云杉的径向生长同逐月气候因子的相关及响应关系,结果显示:幼龄组云杉年表的敏感度高于中龄组和老龄组云杉,幼龄组云杉对生长季前及生长季的气温状况显著正相关;中龄组云杉年表仅与当年4月份和7月份的月平均最低气温显著正相关;老龄组云杉的年轮宽度指数同上年生长季(上年8月份)的月平均气温和月平均最低温显著负相关,上年生长季高温的"滞后效应"在老龄组云杉体现的更为突出;幼龄组与中龄组云杉对当年6月份降水持续增加显示出明显的负相关关系,上年12月份的降水会对幼龄组和老龄组云杉径向生长不利。研究表明幼龄组云杉包含的气候信息要优于中龄组和老龄组云杉,在该区域进行相关研究时应根据研究需要选取不同年龄跨度的云杉年表。     

Problems of the complex assessment of radiobioecological situation and public health in uranium-extraction regions of Kazakhstan

In the article was considered main direction in investigation and methodological approach in the estimations of radiobioecological situation and condition health of population in the uranium-extraction regions of Kazakhstan. Elimination of consequences of uranium extraction in Kazakhstan is only possible with a broad scientific cooperation and combined resources and man-power from Kazakhstan, from former Soviet Union countries and from other countries.     

The potential of generalized additive modelling for the prediction of radial growth of Norway spruce from Central Germany

During the past decades managed forest ecosystems in Central Europe underwent vast changes, induced by extreme climate conditions and occasionally adverse forest management. Tree ring width patterns mirror these changes and thus have been widely examined as environmental archives and reliable empirical data sources in ‘tree growth modelling’. Dendrochronologists often suppose linear co-variation among the covariates, variable independence and homoscedasticity. Conventionally, these assumptions were achieved by eliminating biological age trends (detrending) and removing the autocorrelation from the time series (pre-whitening). Particularly detrending might be biased according to the scientific problem and sometimes inflexible age models. In this study, we tackle these issues and examine the suitability of a flexible Generalized Additive Model (GAM) on recently developed tree ring width time series of 30 Norway spruce stands (Picea abies [L.] H. Karst) from Central Germany.The model was established to simultaneously cope with the mentioned detrending issue, to unravel nonlinear climate-growth relationships and to predict mean ring width time series for spruce stands in the region. Particularly the latter was of primary interest, since recent forest planning relies on static yield tables that often underestimate the actual growth.The model reliably captured the empirical data, indicated by a small Generalized Cross Validation criterion (GCV = 0.045) and a deviance explained of 88.6 %. The flexible additive smoothers accounted for the social status of individual trees, captured low frequency variations of changing growth conditions adequately and displayed a rather flat biological age trend. The radial increment responded positively to summer season precipitation of the current and previous year. Positive temperature responses were found during the early vegetation period, whereas high summer season temperatures negatively affected the radial growth. The seasonal transition from spring to summer in June induced a shift in the climate response of the linear predictor, leading to a distinct negative effect of temperature and a no-role of precipitation on the linear predictor.Most important, utilizing the calibrated GAM for the purely climate-driven prediction of mean ring width time series from five independent spruce sites revealed proper coherencies. Herein, the mean ring width for sites located within the climatic-optimum for spruce growth were more exactly predicted than for sites with adverse spruce growth conditions. In addition, large mean ring widths were systematically underestimated, whereas small mean ring widths were precisely predicted. Overall, we strongly recommend GAMs as a powerful tool for the investigation of nonlinear climate-growth relationships and for the prediction of radial growth in managed forest ecosystems.     

Paleolimnological investigations in humid and arid zones of the Soviet Union

There are many lake basins in the Soviet Union, both in the humid and the arid regions, including lowland and alpine, and shallow and deep-water lakes. Lithological, geochemical, radiological and paleobiological methods have been utilized in studying the history of these lakes. Lake Zaisan in Kazakhstan is described as an example of lake development in the arid zone, whilst the lake systems of the Pribaltica, where human influence on the environment is clearly recorded, exemplifies the humid zone.     

Increasing climate sensitivity of beech and pine is not mediated by adaptation and soil characteristics along a precipitation gradient in northeastern Germany

Rising temperature and altered precipitation regimes will lead to severe droughts and concomitant extreme events in the future. Forest ecosystems have shown to be especially prone to climate change. In assessing climate change impacts, many studies focus on high altitude or ecological edge populations where a climate signal is supposedly most pronounced. While these studies represent only a fraction of the forest ecosystems throughout Europe, findings on climate sensitivity of lowland core populations remain comparatively underrepresented.By using tree-ring widths of a large region-wide network of European beech and Scots pine populations along a precipitation gradient in northeastern Germany, we identify main climatic drivers and spatio-temporal patterns in climate sensitivity. Further, we analyze the resistance of tree growth towards drought. Detailed data on soil characteristics was used to interpret climate-growth relationships.Beech was found to be most sensitive to summer drought during early summer at dry sites, whereas pine displayed highest sensitivity for winter temperature at wet sites. The resistance to extreme drought was lower for beech. By splitting the observation period (1964–2017) into an early and late period, we found non-stationary climate-growth relationships for both study species with beech showing an increase in drought sensitivity and pine in winter temperature sensitivity.Overall, beech populations seem to be especially endangered by prospective climate changes, whereas climate-growth relationships of pine seem more ambiguous with a possible trade-off between enhanced photosynthetic activity caused by early photosynthesis in late winter and reduced activity due to summer drought.     

Divergent growth of Norway spruce on Babia Góra Mountain in the western Carpathians

Growth divergence – i.e. the expression of divergent growth trends of neighboring trees – has certain implications for dendrochronological research, for instance in the context of climate reconstructions but also in terms of estimating net ecosystem productivity. Thus, understanding the underlying mechanisms is essential to extend our fundamental dendroecological knowledge. In this context, the Picea genus plays an important role since several of its species were reported to exhibit growth divergence. Here, we investigate a well sampled Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst) data set for growth divergence comprising ring-width and Blue Intensity measurements from seven sites on Babia Góra Mountain, at the border between Poland and Slovakia. By means of Principal Component Gradient Analysis, inter-series correlations, and climate growth relationships, we are able to show that I) Norway spruce on Babia Góra expressed growth divergence since the 1970s, II) the definition of groups increased the strength of population signals and the stability of climate-growth relationships, and III) Blue Intensity appeared as a more robust proxy for environmental conditions. We discuss soil heterogeneity, genetics, and air pollution as possible underlying mechanisms, thereby indicating further research avenues to obtain a better understanding of growth divergence.     

Dendroclimatology of sugar maple (Acer saccharum): Climate-growth response in a late-successional species

Sugar maple (Acer saccharum) is a shade-tolerant, late successional dominant species in the North American eastern deciduous forest. The objective of this study was to quantify the relationship between climate and radial growth in sugar maple and to identify spatial and temporal patterns in dendroclimatic response. We used a combination of archived sugar maple tree-ring chronologies and newly sampled sites to calculate dendroclimatic response of sugar maple at 13 sites in the United States and Canada. At all sites, sugar maple growth was significantly correlated to monthly temperature, precipitation, or Palmer Drought Severity Index. However, there were no generalizable patterns in sugar maple’s growth response to climate. Individual sites had unique dendroclimatic responses with respect to: a) which climatic variables were correlated to radial growth; b) what months had significant correlations between climate and radial growth; and c) what years had significant correlations between climate and radial growth. The individualistic dendroclimatic response of sugar maple appears to reflect a plastic response of the species to changes in climate perhaps related to its status as a strong competitor in late-successional forests. This ability to survive a wide range of environmental conditions may bode well for the species persistence under variable future climatic conditions. It also points to the need for more research on late-successional species in examining forest response to potential climate change scenarios because these species may be more resilient than early-successional species.     

A dendroclimatic analysis of mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana) ring-width and maximum density parameters,southern British Columbia Coast Mountains,Canada

The growth of mountain hemlock trees in Pacific North America demonstrates a complex relationship to two or more seasonal environmental variables. In order to examine the radial growth response of mountain hemlock to subseasonal climate variables, ring-width and X-ray densitometric analyses were used to construct intra-annual dendroclimatic records. The intent was to highlight the difference between the dendroclimatic outcomes of standard ring-width analyses to those derived from density chronologies collected at high elevation locations in the British Columbia Coast Mountains. This study highlights the importance of using multiple tree-ring parameters to better define the complex growth behaviour in mountain hemlock trees for the construction of more robust proxy climate records. Tree-ring chronologies from three sites were used to describe the inherent climate-growth trends. Maximum tree-ring density values provided a robust data series for constructing site-specific proxy records of late-summer temperature. Annual ring-width measurements provided independent proxies of spring snowpack trends. Significant decreases in temperature and an increase in snowpack depth during the early 1700s and early 1800s coincides with documented PDO phases and Little Ice Age glacier advances. Identification of early and late growing season climate signals within mountain hemlock trees demonstrates the value of documenting the characteristics of multiple tree ring parameters in future dendroclimatic studies.     

Applying climwin to dendrochronology: A breakthrough in the analyses of tree responses to environmental variability

Observational, correlative approaches are one of the backbones of dendrochronology. For instance, climate-growth relationships are usually quantified by calculating Pearson correlations. However, the ability to detect these relationships and the probability of declaring significant correlations by chance pose multiple challenges to such correlative framework. The R climwin package, developed a few years ago within the discipline of animal ecology, overcomes these limitations. In this paper we apply climwin to study relationships between climate and tree-ring widths and anatomy to show the advantages of using this package in the field of dendrochronology. This package allows calculating several models considering multiple windows relating a response variable to the climatic factors at different time resolutions. Then, the most parsimonious model is selected through an information-theoretic approach and randomization tests are computed to establish the significance of the selected model. We compare analyses based on Pearson correlations with climwin results using several environmental drivers (climate variables, drought indices, river flow), response variables (tree-ring width, tracheid lumen area and cell-wall thickness), and tree species from ecologically contrasting sites (cold- and water-limited conifers, Mediterranean riparian ash forests). Analyses of climate-growth/anatomy relationships based on the use of climwin showed several advantages over simple Pearson correlations: (i) they did not depend on the use of arbitrary time intervals of fixed duration, (ii) they allowed reducing probabilities associated with type I and II errors, (iii) they resulted in more consistent findings, (iv) they increased the capacity to detect differences between sites or periods in a time series, and (v) they provided more explanatory power.     

Searching for thresholds in climate–radial growth relationships of Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir,Jasper National Park,Alberta, Canada

The relationship between monthly climate predictors and radial growth of Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmanni Parry) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt) were explored using both a standard dendroclimatological approach and a multiple adaptive regressions splines (MARS) framework. Consistent with previous research, the radial growth of fir and spruce was related to temperature variables over the time period of the instrumental record. We identify important temporal instability in the statistical relationships between climate variables and the radial growth of both subalpine fir and Engelmann spruce. Using a 30-year running window, only four of the climate variables related to the radial growth of either spruce or fir did not show a switch in the sign of the correlation. A multiple adaptive regressions spline method was then used to gain insight into thresholds that may relate to radial growth–climate instabilities. Using MARS, we were able to identify knots and non-monotonic relationships between radial growth and climate predictors that may be indicators of ecological thresholds. This combination of dendroclimatic methods provides valuable insight into the complex nonlinear responses that both subalpine fir and Engelmann spruce have been growing under in the past centuries.     

Growth and response patterns of Picea crassifolia and Pinus tabuliformis to climate factors in the Qilian Mountains,northwest China

Different tree species exhibit different phenological and physiological characteristics, leading to complexity in inter-species comparison of stem radial growth response to climate change. This study explored the climate-growth responses of Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia) and Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis) in the Qilian Mountains, Northwest China. Meanwhile, Vaganov-Shashkin model (VS-oscilloscope) was used to simulate the relationships between radial growth rates and phenology. The results showed that 1) in their radial growth patterns, Qinghai spruce showed a significant increasing trend, while Chinese pine showed a decreasing trend, and Qinghai spruce has a longer growing season than Chinese pine. 2) For the radial growth-climate dynamic response, Qinghai spruce was influenced in an unstable manner by the mean temperature in the mid-growing season of the current year and the late growing season of the previous year and by the mean minimum temperature in the mid-growing season of the current year, while Chinese pine was influenced in a stable manner by the mean temperature and mean maximum temperature during the growing season of the current year. 3) The radial growth rates of the two conifer species were limited by temperature at the initiation and cessation of growth and by soil moisture at the peak of growth. But Chinese pine was more severely affected by soil moisture than Qinghai spruce in the middle of growth. Therefore, different management and restoration measures should be taken based on the differences in ecological responses and physical and physiological properties of the two conifer species to climate change in the subalpine forest ecosystems in the semiarid and arid regions of Northwest China.     

Individualistic and time-varying tree-ring growth to climate sensitivity

The development of dendrochronological time series in order to analyze climate-growth relationships usually involves first a rigorous selection of trees and then the computation of the mean tree-growth measurement series. This study suggests a change in the perspective, passing from an analysis of climate-growth relationships that typically focuses on the mean response of a species to investigating the whole range of individual responses among sample trees. Results highlight that this new approach, tested on a larch and stone pine tree-ring dataset, outperforms, in terms of information obtained, the classical one, with significant improvements regarding the strength, distribution and time-variability of the individual tree-ring growth response to climate. Moreover, a significant change over time of the tree sensitivity to climatic variability has been detected. Accordingly, the best-responder trees at any one time may not always have been the best-responders and may not continue to be so. With minor adjustments to current dendroecological protocol and adopting an individualistic approach, we can improve the quality and reliability of the ecological inferences derived from the climate-growth relationships.     

Health consequences of Chernobyl and other radiation accidents

The Radiation Protection Research Unit of the European Commission has been supporting collaborative research projects on the radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident since 1991. However, in the Fourth Framework Programme of the Commission which started in 1996, the collaboration with scientists in the former Soviet Union has been placed on a different footing, and the programme has been expanded to include other regions, especially in Russia and Kazakhstan, where previous nuclear incidents have led to the exposure of workers and the local populations and to widespread radioactive contamination. There are 15 projects on health-related studies in the newly started programme, and in order to improve the collaboration between the different scientists working in these projects a Cluster Contractors' Meeting was organised in San Miniato, Italy, in June 1997 with the participation of some 50 scientists from the European Union (EU) and the Newly Independent States (NIS). This report summarizes the different topics, including molecular biology and treatment of childhood thyroid cancer, various epidemiological studies and dose reconstruction, which were discussed at the meeting and which form the major projects in the new collaborative programme. Received: 1 November 1997 / Accepted in revised form: 10 December 1997