Modeling Dynamic Introduction of Chikungunya Virus in the United States

Chikungunya is a mosquito-borne viral infection of humans that previously was confined to regions in central Africa. However, during this century, the virus has shown surprising potential for geographic expansion as it invaded other countries including more temperate regions. With no vaccine and no specific treatment, the main control strategy for Chikungunya remains preventive control of mosquito populations. In consideration for the risk of Chikungunya introduction to the US, we developed a model for disease introduction based on virus introduction by one individual. Our study combines a climate-based mosquito population dynamics stochastic model with an epidemiological model to identify temporal windows that have epidemic risk. We ran this model with temperature data from different locations to study the geographic sensitivity of epidemic potential. We found that in locations with marked seasonal variation in temperature there also was a season of epidemic risk matching the period of the year in which mosquito populations survive and grow. In these locations controlling mosquito population sizes might be an efficient strategy. But, in other locations where the temperature supports mosquito development all year the epidemic risk is high and (practically) constant. In these locations, mosquito population control alone might not be an efficient disease control strategy and other approaches should be implemented to complement it. Our results strongly suggest that, in the event of an introduction and establishment of Chikungunya in the US, endemic and epidemic regions would emerge initially, primarily defined by environmental factors controlling annual mosquito population cycles. These regions should be identified to plan different intervention measures. In addition, reducing vector: human ratios can lower the probability and magnitude of outbreaks for regions with strong seasonal temperature patterns. This is the first model to consider Chikungunya risk in the US and can be applied to other vector borne diseases.     

Mosquito management in the face of natural selection

The sterile insect technique (SIT) is an appealing method for managing mosquito populations while avoiding the environmental and social costs associated with more traditional control strategies like insecticide application. Success of SIT, however, hinges on sterile males being able to compete for females. As a result, heavy and/or continued use of SIT could potentially diminish its efficacy if prolonged treatments result in selection for female preference against sterile males. In this paper we extend a general differential equation model of mosquito dynamics to consider the role of female choosiness in determining the long-term usefulness of SIT as a management option. We then apply optimal control theory to our model and show how natural selection for female choosiness fundamentally alters management strategies. Our study calls into question the benefits associated with developing SIT as a management strategy, and suggests that effort should be spent studying female mate choice in order to determine its relative importance and how likely it is to impact SIT treatment goals.     

On a temporal model for the Chikungunya disease: modeling, theory and numerics

Reunion Island faced two episodes of Chikungunya, a vector-borne disease, in 2005 and in 2006. The latter was of unprecedented magnitude: one third of the population was infected. Until the severe episode of 2006, our knowledge of Chikungunya was very limited. The principal aim of our study is to propose a model, including human and mosquito compartments, that is associated to the time course of the first epidemic of Chikungunya. By computing the basic reproduction number R(0), we show there exists a disease-free equilibrium that is locally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is less than 1. Moreover, we give a necessary condition for global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium. Then, we propose a numerical scheme that is qualitatively stable and present several simulations as well as numerical estimates of the basic reproduction number for some cities of Reunion Island. For the episode of 2005, R(0) was less than one, which partly explains why no outbreak appeared. Using recent entomological results, we investigate links between the episode of 2005 and the outbreak of 2006. Finally, our work shows that R(0) varied from place to place on the island, indicating that quick and focused interventions, like the destruction of breeding sites, may be effective for controlling the disease.     

The first releases of transgenic mosquitoes: an argument for the sterile insect technique

Potential applications for reducing transmission of mosquito-borne diseases by releasing genetically modified mosquitoes have been proposed, and mosquitoes are being created with such an application in mind in several laboratories. The use of the sterile insect technique (SIT) provides a safe programme in which production, release and mating competitiveness questions related to mass-reared genetically modified mosquitoes could be answered. It also provides a reversible effect that would be difficult to accomplish with gene introgression approaches. Could new technologies, including recombinant DNA techniques, have improved the success of previous mosquito releases? Criteria for an acceptable transgenic sterile mosquito are described, and the characteristics of radiation-induced sterility are compared with that of current transgenic approaches. We argue that SIT using transgenic material would provide an essentially safe and efficacious foundation for other possible approaches that are more ambitious.     

遗传不育技术在蚊媒疾病防控中的应用

疟疾、登革热等重大传染性蚊媒疾病严重危害人类健康,且目前缺乏有效的药物和疫苗,防治埃及伊蚊、冈比亚按蚊等媒介昆虫是控制和消除这些疾病的有效手段。化学杀虫剂的大规模使用在一定程度上控制了疾病的传播,但其抗药性和环境污染等问题也随之而来。分子生物学的飞速发展为昆虫不育技术(SIT)的更新及害虫防治提供了新的策略,由此发展起来的以释放携带显性致死基因昆虫(RIDL)为代表的一系列遗传不育技术为蚊虫种群防控提供了更加有效的选择。本文概述了遗传技术在蚊虫防控中的应用进展,包括蚊虫遗传防治的历史和策略,阐述了RIDL技术体系的原理,同时介绍了相关遗传控制品系和已经开展的田间释放研究,展示了遗传修饰不育技术在蚊媒疾病防治中的巨大潜力。     

Transmission potential of chikungunya virus and control measures: the case of Italy

During summer 2007 Italy has experienced an epidemic caused by Chikungunya virus - the first large outbreak documented in a temperate climate country - with approximately 161 laboratory confirmed cases concentrated in two bordering villages in North-Eastern Italy comprising 3,968 inhabitants. The seroprevalence was recently estimated to be 10.2%. In this work we provide estimates of the transmission potential of the virus and we assess the efficacy of the measures undertaken by public health authorities to control the epidemic spread. To such aim, we developed a model describing the temporal dynamics of the competent vector, known as Aedes albopictus, explicitly depending on climatic factors, coupled to an epidemic transmission model describing the spread of the epidemic in both humans and mosquitoes. The cumulative number of notified cases predicted by the model was 185 on average (95% CI 117-278), in good agreement with observed data. The probability of observing a major outbreak after the introduction of an infective human case was estimated to be in the range of 32%-76%. We found that the basic reproduction number was in the range of 1.8-6 but it could have been even larger, depending on the density of mosquitoes, which in turn depends on seasonal meteorological effects, besides other local abiotic factors. These results confirm the increasing risk of tropical vector-borne diseases in temperate climate countries, as a consequence of globalization. However, our results show that an epidemic can be controlled by performing a timely intervention, even if the transmission potential of Chikungunya virus is sensibly high.     

Modelling the effects of inherited sterility for the application of the sterile insect technique

1 The sterile insect technique (SIT) involves the release of large numbers of sterile or partially‐sterile insects into a wild pest population to dilute the number of successful wild matings, with the eventual aim of eradication or area‐wide suppression. General population models, encompassing a wide range of SIT types, were used to derive principles for optimizing the success of SIT, with particular emphasis on the application of partial sterility leading to inherited sterility in the F₁ population. 2 The models show that inherited sterility can only be guaranteed to be more effective than complete sterility if matings between irradiated‐lineage partners are unsuccessful. This is widely assumed but rarely examined experimentally. 3 The models allow the critical overflooding ratio, φ_c, to be calculated for a particular target species, suggesting the release rate required to prevent population increase. Successful eradication using SIT alone should aim for a substantially higher release rate than suggested by φ_c. 4 The models show that pest populations may continue to increase in the first few generations of SIT releases, regardless of release rate, as irradiated‐lineage individuals infiltrate the population. This does not necessarily imply that the SIT programme will be unsuccessful in the longer term. 5For pests with overlapping generations, the models suggest that frequent small releases may be more effective than less frequent large releases, particularly when the average release rate is close to the critical threshold for success.     

Deconstructing the eradication of new world screwworm in North America: retrospective analysis and climate warming effects

Before its eradication from North America, the subtropical‐tropical new world screwworm fly Cochliomyia hominivorax (Coquerel) invaded southwestern temperate areas of the U.S.A., where it caused myiasis in wildlife and livestock. Outbreaks of the fly occurred during years when adult migrants were carried northward on North American monsoon winds from the northern areas of Mexico and south Texas. We deconstruct, retrospectively, the biology and the effect of weather on the eradication of the fly in North America. Screwworm was found to be an ideal candidate for eradication using the sterile insect technique (SIT) because females mate only once, whereas males are polygynous, and, although it has a high reproductive potential, field population growth rates are low in tropical areas. In northern areas, eradication was enhanced by cool‐cold weather, whereas eradication in tropical Mexico and Central America is explained by the SIT. Despite low average efficacy of SIT releases (approximately 1.7%), the added pressure of massive SIT releases reduced intrinsically low fly populations, leading to mate‐limited extinction. Non‐autochthonous cases of myiasis occur in North America and, if the fly reestablishes, climate warming by 2045–2055 will expand the area of favourability and increase the frequency and severity of outbreaks.     

Modelling and analysis of impulsive releases of sterile mosquitoes

To study the impact of releasing sterile mosquitoes on mosquito-borne disease transmissions, we propose two mathematical models with impulsive releases of sterile mosquitoes. We consider periodic impulsive releases in the first model and obtain the existence, uniqueness, and globally stability of a wild-mosquito-eradication periodic solution. We also establish thresholds for the control of the wild mosquito population by selecting the release rate and the release period. In the second model, the impulsive releases are determined by the closely monitored wild mosquito density, or the state feedback. We prove the existence of an order one periodic solution and find a relatively small attraction region, which ensures the wild mosquito population is under control. We provide numerical analysis which shows that a smaller release rate and more frequent releases are more efficient in controlling the wild mosquito population for the periodic releases, but an early release of sterile mosquitoes is more effective for the state feedback releases.     

Heritable strategies for controlling insect vectors of disease

Mosquito-borne diseases are causing a substantial burden of mortality, morbidity and economic loss in many parts of the world, despite current control efforts, and new complementary approaches to controlling these diseases are needed. One promising class of new interventions under development involves the heritable modification of the mosquito by insertion of novel genes into the nucleus or of Wolbachia endosymbionts into the cytoplasm. Once released into a target population, these modifications can act to reduce one or more components of the mosquito population''s vectorial capacity (e.g. the number of female mosquitoes, their longevity or their ability to support development and transmission of the pathogen). Some of the modifications under development are designed to be self-limiting, in that they will tend to disappear over time in the absence of recurrent releases (and hence are similar to the sterile insect technique, SIT), whereas other modifications are designed to be self-sustaining, spreading through populations even after releases stop (and hence are similar to traditional biological control). Several successful field trials have now been performed with Aedes mosquitoes, and such trials are helping to define the appropriate developmental pathway for this new class of intervention.     

A model framework to estimate impact and cost of genetics-based sterile insect methods for dengue vector control

Vector-borne diseases impose enormous health and economic burdens and additional methods to control vector populations are clearly needed. The Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) has been successful against agricultural pests, but is not in large-scale use for suppressing or eliminating mosquito populations. Genetic RIDL technology (Release of Insects carrying a Dominant Lethal) is a proposed modification that involves releasing insects that are homozygous for a repressible dominant lethal genetic construct rather than being sterilized by irradiation, and could potentially overcome some technical difficulties with the conventional SIT technology. Using the arboviral disease dengue as an example, we combine vector population dynamics and epidemiological models to explore the effect of a program of RIDL releases on disease transmission. We use these to derive a preliminary estimate of the potential cost-effectiveness of vector control by applying estimates of the costs of SIT. We predict that this genetic control strategy could eliminate dengue rapidly from a human community, and at lower expense (approximately US$ 2~30 per case averted) than the direct and indirect costs of disease (mean US$ 86-190 per case of dengue). The theoretical framework has wider potential use; by appropriately adapting or replacing each component of the framework (entomological, epidemiological, vector control bio-economics and health economics), it could be applied to other vector-borne diseases or vector control strategies and extended to include other health interventions.     

Assessing the Feasibility of Controlling Aedes aegypti with Transgenic Methods: A Model-Based Evaluation

Suppression of dengue and malaria through releases of genetically engineered mosquitoes might soon become feasible. Aedes aegypti mosquitoes carrying a conditionally lethal transgene have recently been used to suppress local vector populations in small-scale field releases. Prior to releases of transgenic insects on a wider scale, however, most regulatory authorities will require additional evidence that suppression will be effective in natural heterogeneous habitats. We use a spatially explicit stochastic model of an Ae. aegypti population in Iquitos, Peru, along with an uncertainty analysis of its predictions, to quantitatively assess the outcome of varied operational approaches for releases of transgenic strains with conditional death of females. We show that population elimination might be an unrealistic objective in heterogeneous populations. We demonstrate that substantial suppression can nonetheless be achieved if releases are deployed in a uniform spatial pattern using strains combining multiple lethal elements, illustrating the importance of detailed spatial models for guiding genetic mosquito control strategies.     

Improved quality management to enhance the efficacy of the sterile insect technique for lepidopteran pests

Lepidoptera are among the most severe pests of food and fibre crops in the world and are mainly controlled using broad spectrum insecticides. This does not lead to environmentally sustainable control and farmers are demanding alternative control tools which are both effective and friendly to the environment. The sterile insect technique (SIT), within an area‐wide integrated pest management (AW‐IPM) approach, has proven to be a powerful control tactic for the creation of pest‐free areas or areas of low pest prevalence. Improving the quality of laboratory‐reared moths would increase the efficacy of released sterile moths applied in AW‐IPM programmes that integrate the (SIT). Factors that might affect the quality and field performance of released sterile moths are identified and characterized in this study. Some tools and methods to measure, predict and enhance moth quality are described such as tests for moth quality, female moth trapping systems, ‘smart’ traps, machine vision for recording behaviour, marking techniques, and release technologies. Methods of enhancing rearing systems are discussed with a view to selecting and preserving useful genetic traits that improve field performance.     

Why is <Emphasis Type="Italic">Aedes aegypti</Emphasis> Linnaeus so Successful as a Species?

Diseases transmitted by mosquitoes impose enormous burden towards human morbidity and mortality. Over the last three decades, Brazil has suffered from severe Dengue epidemics. In September 2014, this situation is further complicated by the introduction of two other viruses, Zika and Chikungunya, placing Brazil in a triple epidemic. In this article, we discuss the biology of Aedes aegypti Linnaeus, and the principal initiatives currently used to control mosquito populations and the diseases they transmit. Aedes aegypti has broad global distribution and is involved in the transmission of various arboviral diseases such as Dengue, Zika, and Chikungunya. Several factors contribute to the success of the species, particularly behavioral plasticity, rapid development, desiccation-resistant eggs, resistance to the principle insecticide classes currently available on the market, preference for the urban environment, and proximity to humans. Vector control programs are the best way to reduce the burden of mosquito-borne diseases. Chemical control is most commonly used in recent times, and unfortunately, the results have not been satisfactory but instead, there is increased vector dispersal and, subsequently, the spread of disease epidemics. Investigations of alternative control methods such as release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes for blocking vector-borne pathogens, release of transgenic mosquitoes carrying a lethal gene for offspring, and the use of insecticide-dispersing mosquitoes are under way in Brazil, and some have shown promising results. Special emphasis should be placed on integrated management of all available tactics, so as to maximize efforts towards mosquito control. Finally, we emphasize that continuous actions and community participation control initiatives are critically important for success.     

Wolbachia symbiont infections induce strong cytoplasmic incompatibility in the tsetse fly Glossina morsitans

Tsetse flies are vectors of the protozoan parasite African trypanosomes, which cause sleeping sickness disease in humans and nagana in livestock. Although there are no effective vaccines and efficacious drugs against this parasite, vector reduction methods have been successful in curbing the disease, especially for nagana. Potential vector control methods that do not involve use of chemicals is a genetic modification approach where flies engineered to be parasite resistant are allowed to replace their susceptible natural counterparts, and Sterile Insect technique (SIT) where males sterilized by chemical means are released to suppress female fecundity. The success of genetic modification approaches requires identification of strong drive systems to spread the desirable traits and the efficacy of SIT can be enhanced by identification of natural mating incompatibility. One such drive mechanism results from the cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) phenomenon induced by the symbiont Wolbachia. CI can also be used to induce natural mating incompatibility between release males and natural populations. Although Wolbachia infections have been reported in tsetse, it has been a challenge to understand their functional biology as attempts to cure tsetse of Wolbachia infections by antibiotic treatment damages the obligate mutualistic symbiont (Wigglesworthia), without which the flies are sterile. Here, we developed aposymbiotic (symbiont-free) and fertile tsetse lines by dietary provisioning of tetracycline supplemented blood meals with yeast extract, which rescues Wigglesworthia-induced sterility. Our results reveal that Wolbachia infections confer strong CI during embryogenesis in Wolbachia-free (Gmm(Apo)) females when mated with Wolbachia-infected (Gmm(Wt)) males. These results are the first demonstration of the biological significance of Wolbachia infections in tsetse. Furthermore, when incorporated into a mathematical model, our results confirm that Wolbachia can be used successfully as a gene driver. This lays the foundation for new disease control methods including a population replacement approach with parasite resistant flies. Alternatively, the availability of males that are reproductively incompatible with natural populations can enhance the efficacy of the ongoing sterile insect technique (SIT) applications by eliminating the need for chemical irradiation.     

A model for the control of malaria using genetically modified vectors

Recent works have considered the problem of using transgenic mosquitoes to control a malaria epidemic. These insects have been genetically engineered to reduce their capacity to infect humans with malaria parasites. We analyze a model of the mosquito population dynamics when genetically modified individuals are introduced into a wild type population so that the effect of their introduction can be assessed. The model describes the dynamics of gene selection under sexual reproduction in a closed vector population. Our results show that the fitness of the resulting heterozygous population is the key parameter for the success of the invasion, independently of the fitness of homozygous vectors. The vector population dynamics model is then combined with an epidemiological model to study the feasibility of controlling a malaria epidemic. Basic reproductive numbers are calculated for both models, and conditions are obtained for preventing reappearance of the epidemic. Simulations on this model show that it may be possible to reduce or even eradicate the epidemic only if the heterozygous population is better adapted than the wild type. They also show that this can be achieved without completely eliminating the wild type mosquitoes.     

Management and eradication options for Queensland fruit fly

Several tephritid fruit flies have explosive population growth and a wide host range, resulting in some of the largest impacts on horticultural crops, reducing marketable produce, and limiting market access. For these pests, early detection and eradication are routinely implemented in vulnerable areas. However, social and consumer concerns can limit the types of population management tools available for fruit fly incursion responses. Deterministic population models were used to compare eradication tools used at typical densities alone and in combination against the Queensland fruit fly (‘Qfly’), Bactrocera tryoni. The models suggested that tools that prevent egg laying are likely to be most effective at reducing populations. Tools that induced mortality once Qfly was sexually mature only slowed population growth, as successful mating still occurred. Release of sterile Qfly when using the sterile insect technique (SIT) interferes with the successful mating of wild flies, and of the tools investigated here, SIT caused the greatest reduction in the population at the prescribed release rate. Used in tandem with SIT, protein baits slightly improved the rate of population reduction, but the male annihilation technique (MAT) almost nullified control by SIT due to the mortality induced on sterile flies. The model suggested that the most rapid decrease in population size would be achieved by SIT plus protein baits. However, the model predicted both the SIT and protein baits when used alone would result in population reduction. The MAT can be used prior to SIT release to increase overflooding ratios.     

User-friendly models of the costs and efficacy of tsetse control: application to sterilizing and insecticidal techniques

An interactive programme, incorporating a deterministic model of tsetse (Diptera: Glossinidae) populations, was developed to predict the cost and effect of different control techniques applied singly or together. Its value was exemplified by using it to compare: (i) the sterile insect technique (SIT), involving weekly releases optimized at three sterile males for each wild male, and (ii) insecticide-treated cattle (ITC) at 3.5/km(2). The isolated pre-treatment population of adults was 2500 males and 5000 females/km(2); if the population was reduced by 90%, its growth potential was 8.4 times per year. However, the population expired naturally when it was reduced to 0.1 wild males/km(2), due to difficulties in finding mates, so that control measures then stopped. This took 187 days with ITC and 609 days with SIT. If ITC was used for 87 days to suppress the population by 99%, subsequent control by SIT alone took 406 days; the female population increased by 48% following the withdrawal of ITC and remained above the immediate post-suppression level for 155 days; the vectorial capacity initially increased seven times and remained above the immediate post-suppression level for 300 days. Combining SIT and ITC after suppression was a little faster than ITC alone, provided the population had not been suppressed by more than 99.7%. Even when SIT was applied under favourable conditions, the most optimistic cost estimate was 20-40 times greater than for ITC. Modelling non-isolated unsuppressed populations showed that tsetse invaded approximately 8 km into the ITC area compared to approximately 18 km for SIT. There was no material improvement by using a 3-km barrier of ITC to protect the SIT area. In general, tsetse control by increasing deaths is more appropriate than reducing births, and SIT is particularly inappropriate. User-friendly models can assist the understanding and planning of tsetse control. The model, freely available via http://www.tsetse.org, allows further exploration of control strategies with user-specified assumptions.     

Improving the biological control of leafminers (Diptera: Agromyzidae) using the sterile insect technique

The leafminer Liriomyza trifolii (Burgess) (Diptera: Agromyzidae) is a worldwide pest of ornamental and vegetable crops. The most promising nonchemical approach for controlling Liriomyza leafminers in greenhouses is regular releases of the parasitoid Diglyphus isaea (Walker) (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae). In the current study, we examine the hypothesis that the use of D. isaea for biological control of leafminers in greenhouse crops may be more practical and efficient when supplemented with additional control strategies, such as the sterile insect technique (SIT). In small cages, our SIT experiments suggest that release of sterile L. trifolii males in three sterile-to-fertile male ratios (3:1, 5:1, and 10:1) can significantly reduce the numbers of the pest offspring. In large cage experiments, when both parasitoids and sterile males were released weekly, the combined methods significantly reduced mine production and the adult leafminer population size. Moreover, a synergistic interaction effect between these two methods was found, and a model based on our observed data predicts that because of this effect, only the use of both methods can eradicate the pest population. Our study indicates that an integrated pest management approach that combines the augmentative release of the parasitoid D. isaea together with sterile leafminer males is more efficient than the use of either method alone. In addition, our results validate previous theoretical models and demonstrate synergistic control with releases of parasitoids and sterile insects.     

Tiger mosquito control: new approaches to the issue in local context

Until recently, the control of mosquitoes has primarily focused on them as a nuisance due to their biting behaviour. This has now evolved into a significant health problem. To deal with this serious issue, a rational approach to vector control should be adopted, with clear, technically sound guidelines enforceable by legislation. The extensive outbreak of Chikungunya in the Indian Ocean during 2005-6 and the subsequent outbreak in the Emilia Romagna region of Italy in August 2007, should prompt a number of actions which must occur without delay in order to prevent any future recurrence of outbreaks. An International Symposium on Chikungunya was held in Alessandria, Italy on February 27th 2008. A number of experts from various disciplines were in attendance, the sole aim to assess the risk of this disease and other mosquito borne diseases occurring in Europe. The meeting culminated in the signing of a declaration called the "Alessandria Resolution" by the experts in attendance and members of several local authorities (see www.zanzare.eu). This act signified joint commitment of an national and international standing, to tackle the spread of the Asian Tiger mosquito and raise awareness among the general public. This paper will share the experiences of the mosquito control programmes in the Italian regions and in Alessandria and Piedmont emphasising key lessons learned.