A Cost-Utility Analysis of Lung Cancer Screening and the Additional Benefits of Incorporating Smoking Cessation Interventions

Background

A 2011 report from the National Lung Screening Trial indicates that three annual low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screenings for lung cancer reduced lung cancer mortality by 20% compared to chest X-ray among older individuals at high risk for lung cancer. Discussion has shifted from clinical proof to financial feasibility. The goal of this study was to determine whether LDCT screening for lung cancer in a commercially-insured population (aged 50–64) at high risk for lung cancer is cost-effective and to quantify the additional benefits of incorporating smoking cessation interventions in a lung cancer screening program.

Methods and Findings

The current study builds upon a previous simulation model to estimate the cost-utility of annual, repeated LDCT screenings over 15 years in a high risk hypothetical cohort of 18 million adults between age 50 and 64 with 30+ pack-years of smoking history. In the base case, the lung cancer screening intervention cost $27.8 billion over 15 years and yielded 985,284 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained for a cost-utility ratio of $28,240 per QALY gained. Adding smoking cessation to these annual screenings resulted in increases in both the costs and QALYs saved, reflected in cost-utility ratios ranging from $16,198 per QALY gained to $23,185 per QALY gained. Annual LDCT lung cancer screening in this high risk population remained cost-effective across all sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions

The findings of this study indicate that repeat annual lung cancer screening in a high risk cohort of adults aged 50–64 is highly cost-effective. Offering smoking cessation interventions with the annual screening program improved the cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening between 20% and 45%. The cost-utility ratios estimated in this study were in line with other accepted cancer screening interventions and support inclusion of annual LDCT screening for lung cancer in a high risk population in clinical recommendations.     

Association between lung cancer screening and smoking cessation

IntroductionAdults with high-risk smoking histories benefit from annual lung cancer screening. It is unclear if there is an association between lung cancer screening and smoking cessation among U.S. adults who receive screening.MethodsWe performed this population-based cross-sectional study using data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (2017–2020). We defined individuals eligible for lung cancer screening as adults 55–80 years old with ≥ 30 pack-year smoking history who were currently smoking or quit within the last 15 years. We assessed the association between lung cancer screening and current smoking status.ResultsBetween 2017 and 2020, 12,382 participants met screening criteria. Current smoking was reported by 5685 (45.9 %) participants, of whom 40.4 % (2298) reported a cessation attempt in the prior year. Lung cancer screening was reported by only 2022 (16.3 %) eligible participants. Lung cancer screening was associated with lower likelihood of currently smoking (odds ratio [OR] 0.705, 95 % CI 0.626–0.793) compared to individuals who did not receive screening. Screening was also associated with higher likelihood of reporting a cessation attempt in the prior year (OR 1.562, 95 % CI 1.345–1.815) compared to individuals who did not receive screening.ConclusionsReceipt of lung cancer screening was associated with lower smoking rates and more frequent cessation attempts among U.S. adults. Better implementation of lung cancer screening programs is critical and may profoundly increase smoking cessation in this population at risk of developing lung cancer.     

Combined genetic polymorphism and risk for development of lung cancer

Susceptibility to lung cancer has been shown to be modulated by host specific factors. Inheritance of different polymorphic cytochrome P450s (CYPs) and the glutathione S-transferases (GSTs) which affect metabolism of environmental toxicants may play a key role in individual susceptibility. Although individual polymorphic genes have been reported to be associated with development of lung cancer, little is known about the combined effects of several genes in carcinogenesis. From our study of 54 lung cancer patients and 50 matched controls, we observed that a combination of several versions of ‘unfavorable' metabolizing genes (CYP2D6, CYP2E1, GSTM1 and GSTT1) is strongly associated with lung cancer. The relative risk for the different combinations of these genotypes ranged between 1.3 and 14, with higher risk involving the activating genes. The duration and intensity of heavy smoking (expressed in pack-years) are the most important determinant for the development of lung cancer. For example, the estimated risk for development of lung cancer associated with smoking >30 pack-years is represented by an odds ratio=6.65; 95% CL=2.3–19.9 irrespective of an individual's genotype, whereas for smoking between >30 and <50 pack-years, odds ratio=4.5; 95% CL=1.37–15; and for smoking >50 pack-years, odds ratio=30; 95% CL=5.7–114. On the other hand, smoking of less than 30 pack-years is associated with an increased risk in the presence of the polymorphic genes (odds ratio=2.5; 95% CL=0.32–54). The results of our study indicate that the inheritance of multiple ‘unfavorable' genotypes, especially activating genes, is a crucial predisposing factor for the development of lung cancer from cigarette smoking. In addition, the genes may cause moderate smokers who would normally outlive the deleterious effects of smoking to develop lung cancer. The information can therefore be used to target individuals for prevention of health problems.     

Radon, smoking and lung cancer risk: results of a joint analysis of three European case-control studies among uranium miners

A combined analysis of three case-control studies nested in three European uranium miner cohorts was performed to study the joint effects of radon exposure and smoking on lung cancer death risk. Occupational history and exposure data were available from the cohorts. Smoking information was reconstructed using self-administered questionnaires and occupational medical archives. Linear excess relative risk models adjusted for smoking were used to estimate the lung cancer risk associated with radon exposure. The study includes 1046 lung cancer cases and 2492 controls with detailed radon exposure data and smoking status. The ERR/WLM adjusted for smoking is equal to 0.008 (95% CI: 0.004-0.014). Time since exposure is shown to be a major modifier of the relationship between radon exposure and lung cancer risk. Fitting geometric mixture models yielded arguments in favor of a sub-multiplicative interaction between radon and smoking. This combined study is the largest case-control study to investigate the joint effects of radon and smoking on lung cancer risk among miners. The results confirm that the lung carcinogenic effect of radon persists even when smoking is adjusted for, with arguments in favor of a sub-multiplicative interaction between radon and smoking.     

An interdisciplinary malignancy, the lung cancer in Hungary in 2006: epidemiology, prevention and access to therapy

The most frequent malignant tumor is lung cancer all around the world. Mortality rate is highest in Hungary. The frequency accumulates in the Southern part of the country. Early radical resection is the really effective treatment of the disease, which can bring the chance of longer survival. The methods of prevention, such as restrain of smoking and early detection with targeted examinations of the risk groups need more attention. There are unacceptable differences among regions in Hungary on the field of the accessibility to the adequate therapies. There are three-fold differences in the rate of operation and radiotherapy between certain counties. The frequency of the chemotherapy is acceptable, but there are some centers which do not use the recommended modern protocols. Professional supervisors and inspectors must give marked attention to the quality control of lung cancer therapies to provide equal chances to patients, independently of their residence.     

Non-smoking wives of heavy smokers have a higher risk of lung cancer: a study from Japan.

In a study in 29 health centre districts in Japan 91 540 non-smoking wives aged 40 and above were followed up for 14 years (1966-79), and standardised mortality rates for lung cancer were assessed according to the smoking habits of their husbands. Wives of heavy smokers were found to have a higher risk of developing lung cancer and a dose-response relation was observed. The relation between the husband''s smoking and the wife''s risk of developing lung cancer showed a similar pattern when analysed by age and occupation of the husband. The risk was particularly great in agricultural families when the husbands were aged 40-59 at enrolment. The husbands'' smoking habit did not affect their wives'' risk of dying from other disease such as stomach cancer, cervical cancer, and ischaemic heart disease. The risk of developing emphysema and asthma seemed to be higher in non-smoking wives of heavy smokers but the effect was not statistically significant. The husband''s drinking habit seemed to have no effect on any causes of death in their wives, including lung cancer. These results indicate the possible importance of passive or indirect smoking as one of the causal factors of lung cancer. They also appear to explain the long-standing riddle of why many women develop lung cancer although they themselves are non-smokers. These results also cast doubt on the practice of assessing the relative risk of developing lung cancer in smokers by comparing them with non-smokers.     

Calculation of the 1995 lung cancer incidence in the Netherlands and Sweden caused by smoking and radon: risk implications for radon

A two-mutation carcinogenesis model was used to calculate the expected lung cancer incidence caused by both smoking and exposure to radon in two populations, i.e. those of the Netherlands and Sweden. The model parameters were taken from a previous analysis of lung cancer in smokers and uranium miners and the model was applied to the two populations taking into account the smoking habits and exposure to radon. For both countries, the smoking histories and indoor radon exposure data for the period 1910-1995 were reconstructed and used in the calculations. Compared with the number of lung cancer cases observed in 1995 among both males and females in the two countries, the calculations show that between 72% and 94% of the registered lung cancer cases may be attributable to the combined effects of radon and smoking. In the Netherlands, a portion of about 4% and in Sweden, a portion of about 20% of the lung cancer cases (at ages 0-80 years) may be attributable to radon exposure, the numbers for males being slightly lower than for females. In the Netherlands, the proportions of lung cancers attributable to smoking are 91% for males and 71% for females; in Sweden, the figures are 70% and 56%, respectively. The risk from radon exposure is dependent on gender and cigarette smoking: the excess absolute risk for continuous exposure to 100 Bq m-3 ranges between 0.003 and 0.006 and compares well with current estimates, e.g. 0.0043 of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). The excess relative risk for continuous exposure to 100 Bq m-3 shows a larger variation, ranging generally between 0.1 for smokers and 1.0 for non-smokers. The results support the assumption that exposure to (indoor) radon, even at a level as low as background radiation, causes lung cancer proportional to the dose and is consistent with risk factors derived from the miners data.     

Do Lung Cancer Eligibility Criteria Align with Risk among Blacks and Hispanics?

Background

Black patients have higher lung cancer risk despite lower pack years of smoking. We assessed lung cancer risk by race, ethnicity, and sex among a nationally representative population eligible for lung cancer screening based on Medicare criteria.

Methods

We used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2007–2012 to assess lung cancer risk by sex, race and ethnicity among persons satisfying Medicare age and pack-year smoking eligibility criteria for lung cancer screening. We assessed Medicare eligibility based on age (55–77 years) and pack-years (≥30). We assessed 6-year lung cancer risk using a risk prediction model from Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening trial that was modified in 2012 (PLCO_m2012). We compared the proportions of eligible persons by sex, race and ethnicity using Medicare criteria with a risk cut-point that was adjusted to achieve comparable total number of persons eligible for screening.

Results

Among the 29.7 million persons aged 55–77 years who ever smoked, we found that 7.3 million (24.5%) were eligible for lung cancer screening under Medicare criteria. Among those eligible, Blacks had statistically significant higher (4.4%) and Hispanics lower lung cancer risk (1.2%) than non-Hispanic Whites (3.2%). At a cut-point of 2.12% risk for lung screening eligibility, the percentage of Blacks and Hispanics showed statistically significant changes. Blacks eligible rose by 48% and Hispanics eligible declined by 63%. Black men and Hispanic women were affected the most. There was little change in eligibility among Whites.

Conclusion

Medicare eligibility criteria for lung cancer screening do not align with estimated risk for lung cancer among Blacks and Hispanics. Data are urgently needed to determine whether use of risk-based eligibility screening improves lung cancer outcomes among minority patients.     

Chromosome 15q25 (CHRNA3-CHRNA5) variation impacts indirectly on lung cancer risk

Genetic variants at the 15q25 CHRNA5-CHRNA3 locus have been shown to influence lung cancer risk however there is controversy as to whether variants have a direct carcinogenic effect on lung cancer risk or impact indirectly through smoking behavior. We have performed a detailed analysis of the 15q25 risk variants rs12914385 and rs8042374 with smoking behavior and lung cancer risk in 4,343 lung cancer cases and 1,479 controls from the Genetic Lung Cancer Predisposition Study (GELCAPS). A strong association between rs12914385 and rs8042374, and lung cancer risk was shown, odds ratios (OR) were 1.44, (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.29–1.62, P = 3.69×10⁻¹⁰) and 1.35 (95% CI: 1.18–1.55, P = 9.99×10⁻⁶) respectively. Each copy of risk alleles at rs12914385 and rs8042374 was associated with increased cigarette consumption of 1.0 and 0.9 cigarettes per day (CPD) (P = 5.18×10⁻⁵ and P = 5.65×10⁻³). These genetically determined modest differences in smoking behavior can be shown to be sufficient to account for the 15q25 association with lung cancer risk. To further verify the indirect effect of 15q25 on the risk, we restricted our analysis of lung cancer risk to never-smokers and conducted a meta-analysis of previously published studies of lung cancer risk in never-smokers. Never-smoker studies published in English were ascertained from PubMed stipulating - lung cancer, risk, genome-wide association, candidate genes. Our study and five previously published studies provided data on 2,405 never-smoker lung cancer cases and 7,622 controls. In the pooled analysis no association has been found between the 15q25 variation and lung cancer risk (OR = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.94–1.28). This study affirms the 15q25 association with smoking and is consistent with an indirect link between genotype and lung cancer risk.     

OGG1 expression and OGG1 Ser326Cys polymorphism and risk of lung cancer in a prospective study

Oxidative DNA damage is believed to be implicated in lung carcinogenesis. 8-OxodG is a mutagenic and abundant oxidative modification induced in DNA. OGG1, NEIL1 and MUTYH are all involved in the repair and prevention of 8-oxodG-derived mutations and may be up-regulated by oxidative stress. The polymorphism OGG1 Ser326Cys has in some studies been associated with risk of lung cancer. In a population-based cohort of 57,053 Danes, we examined associations between mRNA levels of OGG1, NEIL1, MUTYH and NUDT in buffy coat material and subsequent lung cancer risk. 260 cases with lung cancer were identified and a sub-cohort of 263 individuals was matched on sex, age and smoking duration. We found that OGG1 mRNA levels in healthy individuals were not associated with risk of subsequent getting lung cancer. However, subjects with the OGG1 Cys326/Cys326 genotype had a higher expression level of OGG1 mRNA than wildtype-allele carriers. For homozygous Cys326 carriers, the incidence rate ratio (IRR) was 1.51 (95% CI: 1.09-2.08) for a doubling of the OGG1 mRNA level and there was a statistically significant interaction between the genotype and mRNA level. Among never-smokers, the IRR was 4.29 (1.09-16.9) per doubling of the OGG1 mRNA level, which was not found among smokers. Furthermore, we found a positive correlation between OGG1 mRNA expression and urinary excretion of 8-oxodG (RS=0.18; p<0.005). NUDT1 mRNA levels were omitted due to low and unreliable expression levels. The results suggest that OGG1 mRNA levels should be regarded as a biomarker of exposure to oxidative stress with induction of DNA rather than a marker of inborn DNA repair capacity.     

Radiation and smoking effects on lung cancer incidence by histological types among atomic bomb survivors

While the risk of lung cancer associated separately with smoking and radiation exposure has been widely reported, it is not clear how smoking and radiation together contribute to the risk of specific lung cancer histological types. With individual smoking histories and radiation dose estimates, we characterized the joint effects of radiation and smoking on type-specific lung cancer rates among the Life Span Study cohort of Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Among 105,404 cohort subjects followed between 1958 and 1999, 1,803 first primary lung cancer incident cases were diagnosed and classified by histological type. Poisson regression methods were used to estimate excess relative risks under several interaction models. Adenocarcinoma (636 cases), squamous-cell carcinoma (330) and small-cell carcinoma (194) made up 90% of the cases with known histology. Both smoking and radiation exposure significantly increased the risk of each major lung cancer histological type. Smoking-associated excess relative risks were significantly larger for small-cell and squamous-cell carcinomas than for adenocarcinoma. The gender-averaged excess relative risks per 1 Gy of radiation (for never-smokers at age 70 after radiation exposure at age 30) were estimated as 1.49 (95% confidence interval 0.1-4.6) for small-cell carcinoma, 0.75 (0.3-1.3) for adenocarcinoma, and 0.27 (0-1.5) for squamous-cell carcinoma. Under a model allowing radiation effects to vary with levels of smoking, the nature of the joint effect of smoking and radiation showed a similar pattern for different histological types in which the radiation-associated excess relative risk tended to be larger for moderate smokers than for heavy smokers. However, in contrast to analyses of all lung cancers as a group, such complicated interactions did not describe the data significantly better than either simple additive or multiplicative interaction models for any of the type-specific analyses.     

Cigarette smoking strongly modifies the association of complement factor H variant and the risk of lung cancer

The complement system is an important immunosurveillance mechanism against tumors, and complement factor H (CFH) is a key regulator for activation of the complement system. Expression of complement factor H has been demonstrated in cell lines from several malignancies. In this study we examined the contribution of the single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) Try402His (Y402H) (rs1061170) in the CFH gene to the risk of lung cancer in a case-control study with 1000 cases and 1000 controls. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed by logistic regression. The frequencies for CFH Y402H genotypes among the cases were statistically significantly different from those among controls (χ(2)=8.66, P=0.003), with 402His/His or 402His/Try genotypes being over-represented among patients compared with controls (13.6% versus 9.4%, P<0.004). A multivariate regression analysis showed that a significantly increased risk of lung cancer for the 402His/His or 402His/Try carriers with OR (95% CI), 1.50 (1.12-2.00). When stratified by smoking status, the elevated risk of the cancer associated with variant CFH genotypes was observed among smokers, but not among non-smokers. When analyzed with cumulative smoking dose (pack-years), a super-multiplicative interaction was observed at different smoking levels. Among carriers with the 402Tyr/His or His/His genotype, the ORs of developing lung cancer for smoking<16, 16-28, or >28 pack-years were 0.98 (0.49-1.94), 2.36 (1.14-4.90), and 6.39 (3.49-11.68), respectively. These findings suggest that CFH Y402H polymorphism may interact with cigarette smoking to effect the development of lung cancer in the Chinese population.     

Short- and long-term survival outcomes among never smokers who developed lung cancer

BackgroundLung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in the US. While an extensive literature exists detailing lung cancer risk factors and mortality among patients with a history of tobacco use, the data are more limited among individuals who have never smoked. The purpose of this investigation is to compare survival rates between the two groups and evaluate potential risk factors among never smokers.MethodsThis retrospective study included 3380 smokers and 334 never smokers who were diagnosed with lung cancer at Stony Brook University Hospital between 2003 and 2016. 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year survival outcomes, stratified by smoking status, were compared and Kaplan-Meier curves for overall survival are provided. Cox Proportional Hazard models were used to evaluate factors influencing survival among never smokers.ResultsNever smokers with lung cancer were more likely to be female, be diagnosed with adenocarcinoma histology, and had fewer comorbidities than lung cancer patients who smoked. Although 60% of patients were diagnosed at a later stage of disease development, regardless of smoking status, overall short- and long-term survival was significantly higher among never smokers compared to those with a history of tobacco use. In addition to age and stage at diagnosis, a history of diabetes was found to be a significant prognostic factor for decreased survival among never smokers (HR=3.15, 95% CI (1.74, 5.71)).ConclusionsData from the present investigation suggest that, regardless of smoking status, approximately three of every five lung cancer patients are diagnosed at a later stage, and that both short- and long-term survival outcomes are significantly better among never smokers compared to those with a history of tobacco use. Additional studies are required to validate these findings and better explain the mechanistic drivers for the improved outcomes among never smokers.     

Analysis of erythrocyte glycophorin-A variants by flow cytometry in lung disease patients detects the effect of tobacco smoke.

The glycophoryn A (GPA) assay evaluates somatic in vivo mutations. It is considered a cumulative biodosimeter for genotoxic exposures and is under evaluation in cancer risk assessment. GPA, a polymorphic membrane protein of the erythrocytes, determines the MN blood groups. The NO and NN variant frequencies (VF) may be detected in MN subjects (about 50% of the population) by flow cytometry using two differently labelled antibodies. We explored if GPA NO and NN VF might be relevant to the assessment of individual lung cancer risk and susceptibility, in a small population with a high prevalence of heavy tobacco smokers: 8 lung cancer patients and 16 subjects with non-malignant lung diseases associated with increased risk of lung cancer. There was a wide interindividual variability and complete overlap between non-neoplastic and neoplastic patients. A significant positive correlation was seen with smoking duration in NO VF (p = 0.04, age-adjusted). Current smokers (n = 12) displayed higher NO values than never (n = 1) or ex-smokers (n = 11), 36.3 +/- 18.2 and 21.0 +/- 13.2, respectively (p < 0.01). No association was shown with occupational exposure. The present exploratory study suggests that assessment of individual lung cancer risk and susceptibility by the GPA assay does not seem to be feasible. The assay appears to provide a biomarker of longterm exposure to tobacco smoke.     

Analysis of microsatellite mutations in buccal cells from a case-control study for lung cancer

Exposure to tobacco carcinogens is the major cause of human lung cancer, but even heavy smokers have only about a 10% life-time risk of developing lung cancer. Currently used screening processes, based largely on age and exposure status, have proven to be of limited clinical utility in predicting cancer risk. More precise methods of assessing an individual's risk of developing lung cancer are needed. Because of their sensitivity to DNA damage, microsatellites are potentially useful for the assessment of somatic mutational load in normal cells. We assessed mutational load using hypermutable microsatellites in buccal cells obtained from lung carcinoma cases and controls to test if such a measure could be used to estimate lung cancer risk. There was no significant association between smoking status and mutation frequency with any of the markers tested. No significant association between case status and mutation frequency was observed. Age was significantly related to mutation frequency in the microsatellite marker D7S1482. These observations indicate that somatic mutational load, as measured using mutation frequency of microsatellites in buccal cells, increases with increasing age but that subjects who develop lung cancer have a similar mutational load as those who remain cancer free. This finding suggests that mutation frequency of microsatellite mutations in buccal cells may not be a promising biomarker for lung cancer risk.     

Circulating MicroRNAs as Non-Invasive Biomarkers for Early Detection of Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer

BackgroundDetection of lung cancer at an early stage by sensitive screening tests could be an important strategy to improving prognosis. Our objective was to identify a panel of circulating microRNAs in plasma that will contribute to early detection of lung cancer.ResultsWe identified a panel of 24 microRNAs with optimum classification performance. The combination of these 24 microRNAs alone could discriminate lung cancer cases from non-cancer controls with an AUC of 0.92 (95% CI: 0.87-0.95). This classification improved to an AUC of 0.94 (95% CI: 0.90-0.97) following addition of sex, age and smoking status to the model. Internal validation of the model suggests that the discriminatory power of the panel will be high when applied to independent samples with a corrected AUC of 0.78 for the 24-miRNA panel alone.ConclusionOur 24-microRNA predictor improves lung cancer prediction beyond that of known risk factors.     

Smoking related cancers and loci at chromosomes 15q25, 5p15, 6p22.1 and 6p21.33 in the Polish population

Genetic factors associated with the risk of smoking related cancers have until recently remained elusive. Since the publication of a genome-wide association study (GWAS) on lung cancer new genetic loci have been identified that appear to be associated with disease risk. In this replication study we genotyped 14 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) located at the 5p12.3-p15.33, 6p21.3-p22.1, 6q23-q27 and 15q25.1 loci in 874 lung, 450 bladder, 418 laryngeal cancer cases and cancer-free controls, matched by year of birth and sex to the cases. Our results revealed that loci in the chromosome region 15q25.1 (rs16969968[A], rs8034191[G]) and 5p15 (rs402710[T]) are associated with lung cancer risk in the Polish population (smoking status adjusted OR = 1.45, 1.35, 0.77; p ≤ 0.0001, 0.0005, 0.002; 95%CI 1.23-1.72, 1.14-1.59, 0.66-0.91 respectively). None of the other regions analyzed herein were implicated in the risk of lung, bladder or laryngeal cancer. This study supports previous findings on lung cancer but fails to show association of SNPs located in 15q25.1 and 5p15 region with other smoking related cancers like bladder and laryngeal cancer.     

Lung cancer risk of Mayak workers: modelling of carcinogenesis and bystander effect

Lung cancer mortality in the period of 1948-2002 has been analysed for 6,293 male workers of the Mayak Production Association, for whose information on smoking, annual external doses and annual lung doses due to plutonium exposures was available. Individual likelihoods were maximized for the two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model of carcinogenesis and for an empirical risk model. Possible detrimental and protective bystander effects on mutation and malignant transformation rates were taken into account in the TSCE model. Criteria for non-nested models were used to evaluate the quality of fit. Data were found to be incompatible with the model including a detrimental bystander effect. The model with a protective bystander effect did not improve the quality of fit over models without a bystander effect. The preferred TSCE model was sub-multiplicative in the risks due to smoking and internal radiation, and more than additive. Smoking contributed 57% to the lung cancer deaths, the interaction of smoking and radiation 27%, radiation 10%, and others cause 6%. An assessment of the relative biological effectiveness of plutonium was consistent with the ICRP recommended value of 20. At age 60 years, the excess relative risk (ERR) per lung dose was 0.20 (95% CI: 0.13; 0.40) Sv(-1), while the excess absolute risk (EAR) per lung dose was 3.2 (2.0; 6.2) per 10(4) PY Sv. With increasing age attained the ERR decreased and the EAR increased. In contrast to the atomic bomb survivors, a significant elevated lung cancer risk was also found for age attained younger than 55 years. For cumulative lung doses below 5 Sv, the excess risk depended linearly on dose. The excess relative risk was significantly lower in the TSCE model for ages attained younger than 55 than that in the empirical model. This reflects a model uncertainty in the results, which is not expressed by the standard statistical uncertainty bands.     

Lung cancer in Mayak workers: interaction of smoking and plutonium exposure

Lung cancer mortality among 5058 male workers of the Mayak Production Association has been analyzed with emphasis on the interaction of smoking and radiation exposure by using the two-step clonal expansion (TSCE) model of carcinogenesis. The cohort consists of all Mayak workers with known smoking status, who were employed in the period 1948–1972, and who either had the plutonium concentration in urine measured or who worked in the reactors, where plutonium exposure was negligible. Those who died during the first two years after the first urine sampling were excluded. The follow-up extended until the end of 1998. During this time, 2176 workers died, including 244 lung cancer cases. Mayak workers were exposed to external (gamma and neutron) radiation, and in the radiochemical and plutonium plants to plutonium. In the preferred TSCE model, internal radiation and smoking act on the clonal expansion of pre-carcinogenic clones. Assuming a plutonium radiation weighting factor of 20, the excess relative risk per lung dose was estimated to be 0.11 (95% CI: 0.08; 0.17) Sv⁻¹. Most of the lung cancer deaths are found to be due to smoking. The second main factor is the interaction of smoking and internal radiation. The model is sub-multiplicative in relative risks due to smoking and radiation. In a multiplicative version of the TSCE model, internal radiation acts on initiation and transformation rates. This model version agrees with conventional epidemiological risk models, because it also suggests a higher risk estimate than the preferred TSCE model. However, it fits the data less well than the preferred model. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Lung cancer risk in germline p53 mutation carriers: association between an inherited cancer predisposition,cigarette smoking,and cancer risk

We recently observed a significantly increased risk for lung cancer in carriers of p53 germline mutations. Because cigarette smoking is known to play an important role in increasing the risk for lung cancer in the general population, we wanted to determine the role of cigarette smoking in lung cancer risk in people with a genetic susceptibility based on a p53 germline mutation. We studied 1263 people from 97 families enrolled in a cohort study of families systematically ascertained through childhood soft-tissue sarcoma patients treated at the M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, University of Texas, between 1944 and 1975. We assessed the incidence of lung and smoking-related cancers in 33 carriers of germline p53 mutations and in 1,230 noncarriers to determine whether there was an association between an inherited cancer predisposition, cigarette smoking, and cancer risk. We analyzed the association between cigarette smoking, mutation status, and lung and other smoking-related cancers by the Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox proportional hazards model with adjustments for birth year, race, and sex. In the hazards model, we incorporated a robust variance estimation to adjust for familial correlation. We observed an increased risk of a variety of histological types of lung cancer in the carriers of the p53 germline mutation. Mutation carriers who smoked had a 3.16-fold (95% confidence interval =1.48–6.78) higher risk for lung cancer than the mutation carriers who did not smoke. Our results demonstrate that cigarette smoking significantly increases lung cancer risk in carriers of a germline p53 mutation. This finding could be useful in designing strategies for early detection and treatment of lung and smoking-related cancers in individuals with this inherited cancer predisposition.