Early warning signals and the prosecutor's fallacy

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here, we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces—a statistical error often known as the prosecutor''s fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false-positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than those more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.     

Early warning signals detect critical impacts of experimental warming

Earth's surface temperatures are projected to increase by ~1–4°C over the next century, threatening the future of global biodiversity and ecosystem stability. While this has fueled major progress in the field of physiological trait responses to warming, it is currently unclear whether routine population monitoring data can be used to predict temperature‐induced population collapse. Here, we integrate trait performance theory with that of critical tipping points to test whether early warning signals can be reliably used to anticipate thermally induced extinction events. We find that a model parameterized by experimental growth rates exhibits critical slowing down in the vicinity of an experimentally tested critical threshold, suggesting that dynamical early warning signals may be useful in detecting the potentially precipitous onset of population collapse due to global climate change.     

Genetic network and pathway analysis of differentially expressed proteins during critical cellular events in fracture repair

Bone repair consists of inflammation, intramembranous ossification, chondrogenesis, endochondral ossification, and remodeling. To better understand the translational regulation of these distinct but interrelated cellular events, we used the second generation of BD Clontechtrade mark Antibody Microarray to dissect and functionally characterize proteins differentially expressed between intact and fractured rat femur at each of these cellular events. Genetic network analysis showed that proteins differentially expressed within a given cellular event tend to be physically or functionally correlated. Seventeen such interacting networks were established over five cellular events that were most frequently associated with cell cycle, cell death, cell-to-cell signaling and interaction, and cell growth and proliferation. Eighteen molecular pathways were significantly enriched during the bone repair process, of which ERK/MAPK, NF-kB, PDGF, and T-cell receptor signaling pathways were significant during three or more cellular events. The analyses revealed dynamic temporal expression patterns and cellular-event-specific functions. The inflammation event on Day 1 was characteristic of the cell cycle-related molecular changes. The relative quiet stage of intramembranous ossification on Day 4 and the molecularly most active stage of chondrogenesis on Day 7 were featured by coordinated cell death and cell-proliferation signals. Endochondral ossification on Day 14 experienced a clear transition from the molecular/cellular function to the physiological system development/function. The osteoclast-mediated remodeling on Day 28 was highlighted by the integrin signaling pathway. The distinct changes in protein expression during these cellular events provide a molecular basis for developing cellular event-targeted therapeutic strategy to accelerate bone healing.     

小鼠细胞因子相关基因表达检测寡核苷酸芯片的制备及分析

生物芯片技术用于基因表达谱研究是近年来发展起来的一项新技术 ,该方法本质上是基于对一玻璃片或膜表面上固定的ｃＤＮＡ或寡核苷酸的分子杂交 ,这一新技术可同时测定成千上万个基因的作用方式 ,几周获得的信息用其它方法可能要几年才能得到 ,是以定量方式同时监测大量基因相对表达的强有力的新方法[1 ,2 ] 。国内外目前主要采用ｃＤＮＡ芯片进行基因表达的检测 ,芯片制备所用的ＤＮＡ探针一般为已知基因ｃＤＮＡ克隆的ＰＣＲ扩增产物或ＥＳＴ的扩增产物[3～ 8] 。对基因的表达检测来说 ,ｃＤＮＡ芯片技术是一条非常适用的检测方法 ,但在有…     

Early embryonic death-associated changes in genome-wide gene expression profiles in the fetal placenta of the cow carrying somatic nuclear-derived cloned embryo

Successful somatic nuclear transfer-derived cloning has been reported in cattle; however, the cloned embryo is highly susceptible to death around day 60 of gestation leading to early embryonic loss. The early embryonic death is postulated to possibly arise in part from an atypical placentation. We have performed cDNA macroarray analysis using 3,353 of the previously cataloged 4,165 genes, in order to characterize the early embryonic death-associated changes in genome-wide gene expression profiles in the fetal placenta of the cow carrying somatic nuclear transfer-derived cloned embryo. A more marked difference in the expression profiles was observed between the fetal placentas of the cows with the cloned immotile embryo (CD) and with the cloned motile embryo (CL) or artificial insemination-derived motile embryo (AI), as compared to between the CL and AI placentas, suggesting an aberration of the expression profile in the CD placenta among the three placentas. Further, 291 and 77 genes showed more than twofold elevation and less than 50% reduction, respectively, in either or both of two CD (CD1 and CD2) placentas in comparison with the CL placenta, but no differential expression between the CL and AI placentas. The expression patterns of six genes in the AI, CL, and CD placentas were confirmed in an experiment with an additional sample for each of the three placentas. Among the placental genes showing the early embryonic death-associated changes of expression in the cow with the cloned embryo, IGF2 (elevated gene), and HBA1, HBA2, SPTB, and SPTBN1 genes (reduced gene) are intriguing in that the changes of expression in these genes were observed in an additional sample of CD placenta as well as the CD1 and CD2 placentas, and in that overexpression (for IGF2) and dysfunction or deficiency (for HBA1, HBA2, SPTB, and SPTBN1) result in embryonic lethality.     

肿瘤相关基因表达检测寡核苷酸芯片的制备及其初步应用

为研制肿瘤相关寡核苷酸芯片,并实现其在抗肿瘤反义核酸“癌泰得”作用机理研究方面的初步应用,制备了包含近450种肿瘤相关基因特异寡核苷酸探针的寡核苷酸芯片,建立了相应的质控标准.“癌泰得”用脂质体转染HepG2肿瘤细胞,提取细胞总RNA反转录并荧光标记cDNA,用制备的寡核苷酸芯片检测肝癌细胞HepG2的肿瘤相关基因表达水平,用软件分析获得其差异基因表达谱.0.4 μmol/L的反义核酸“癌泰得”作用于HepG2细胞15 h后,MDNCF、DHS等基因mRNA表达下调,MUC2、MPP11、LAT、HRIF-B、JNK3A1等mRNA基因表达上调,初步检测到了“癌泰得”的抗肿瘤作用可能的相关基因,为进一步的分子作用机理的探讨奠定基础.结果表明,制备的肿瘤相关芯片敏感度高、特异性高、重复性均较好,可用于检测肿瘤相关基因的表达谱,为临床诊断和基础研究提供了技术平台.     

病毒感染相关基因微阵列的制备及其在HBV感染应答基因筛选中的应用

为筛选乙型肝炎(乙肝)病毒(HBV)感染应答基因,探讨HBV感染分子机理,采用生物信息学分析、筛选宿主细胞中与乙肝病毒、丙型肝炎(丙肝)病毒、流行性感冒(流感)病毒等感染密切相关的基因,设计并合成寡核苷酸探针,制备了含231种病毒感染相关基因的寡核苷酸微阵列.利用此微阵列比较HepG2细胞、HepG2.2.15细胞之间的基因表达谱差异,筛选乙肝病毒感染候选应答基因,从分子水平对乙肝病毒感染作用机理进行初步研究.制备的病毒感染相关基因表达谱微阵列的监测结果显示,阳性对照和看家基因探针出现较强信号,空白点样液和阴性对照探针未出信号,大部分基因探针信号强度在可分析范围内,上矩阵和下矩阵反映的基因表达情况一致,证明微阵列的特异性、敏感性、重复性都较好.HepG2.2.15与HepG2细胞基因表达谱比较结果显示,28个宿主基因在HepG2.2.15细胞中高表达,包括ASGR1、AFP、Fibronectin、APOC等基因;4个基因低表达,包括RRM1、ICSBP等基因.初步筛选获得HBV感染候选应答基因.此结果表明,制备的微阵列敏感性、特异性、重复性好,可为研究病毒宿主相互作用关系提供技术平台,应用此微阵列筛选获得的HBV候选应答基因可为揭示HBV感染的分子致病机理提供新的信息,为抗HBV药物研究提供潜在的作用靶点.     

DNA微阵列技术及其在肿瘤生物学中的应用

人类基因组测序工作的完成使人们可以方便地调用任何基因序列,但仅有基因序列并不能解释众多的生物学问题,这要求发展一种高通量的技术用于研究基因的生物学功能以及基因的相互作用。DNA微阵列技术以其高通量的特点,已经在肿瘤生物学的研究中逐渐被采用。由于癌症是源于基因表达谱改变的基因疾病,通过DNA微阵列技术研究癌症细胞和对应的正常细胞的基因表达差异,将会使人们更好地了解肿瘤的形成和发展过程。     

人鼻咽与鼻咽癌及肺癌基因表达谱差异的研究

研究鼻咽癌、肺癌与正常鼻咽组织基因表达谱差异及筛选鼻咽癌相关基因,采用α- ³²P逆转录标记组织总RNA,将cDNA探针与有5 184个基因或表达序列标签EST(expression sequence tag)的高密度cDNA微阵列GF200杂交,软件分析表达谱差异.结果发现三者均呈低表达为主的表达谱,密度值在200以上的基因及EST在鼻咽癌有110个,肺癌134个而鼻咽组织有158个;5个EST在鼻咽高表达但鼻咽癌低表达,3个EST在鼻咽癌高表达但正常鼻咽低表达.结果表明鼻咽癌与正常鼻咽及肺癌组织存在差异表达基因,可能还有新基因在鼻咽癌发生中起作用;采用高密度cDNA微阵列是一种筛选差异表达基因的快速有效方法.     

Genome-wide profiling of gene expression in 29 normal human tissues with a cDNA microarray.

We have performed a comprehensive analysis of the expression profiles in 25 adult and 4 fetal human tissues by means of a cDNA microarray consisting of 23,040 human genes. This study revealed a number of genes that were expressed specifically in each of those tissues. Among the 29 tissues examined, 4,080 genes were highly expressed (at least a five-fold expression ratio) in one or only a few tissues and 1,163 of those were expressed exclusively (more than a ten-fold higher expression ratio) in a particular tissue. Expression of some of the genes in the latter category was confirmed by northern analysis. A hierarchical clustering analysis of gene-expression profiles in nerve tissues (adult brain, fetal brain, and spinal cord), lymphoid tissues (bone marrow, thymus, spleen, and lymph node), muscle tissues (heart and skeletal muscle), or adipose tissues (mesenteric adipose and mammary gland) identified a set of genes that were commonly expressed among related tissues. These data should provide useful information for medical research, especially for efforts to identify tissue-specific molecules as potential targets of novel drugs to treat human diseases.     

Robustness of early warning signals for catastrophic and non‐catastrophic transitions

Early warning signals (EWS) are statistical indicators that a rapid regime shift may be forthcoming. Their development has given ecologists hope of predicting rapid regime shifts before they occur. Accurate predictions, however, rely on the signals being appropriate to the system in question. Most of the EWS commonly applied in ecology have been studied in the context of one specific type of regime shift (the type brought on by a saddle‐node bifurcation, at which one stable equilibrium point collides with an unstable equilibrium and disappears) under one particular perturbation scheme (temporally uncorrelated noise that perturbs the net population growth rate in a density independent way). Whether and when these EWS can be applied to other ecological situations remains relatively unknown, and certainly underappreciated. We study a range of models with different types of dynamical transitions (including rapid regime shifts) and several perturbation schemes (density‐dependent uncorrelated or temporally‐correlated noise) and test the ability of EWS to warn of an approaching transition. We also test the sensitivity of our results to the amount of available pre‐transition data and various decisions that must be made in the analysis (i.e. the rolling window size and smoothing bandwidth used to compute the EWS). We find that EWS generally work well to signal an impending saddle‐node bifurcation, regardless of the autocorrelation or intensity of the noise. However, EWS do not reliably appear as expected for other types of transition. EWS were often very sensitive to the length of the pre‐transition time series analyzed, and usually less sensitive to other decisions. We conclude that the EWS perform well for saddle‐node bifurcation in a range of noise environments, but different methods should be used to predict other types of regime shifts. As a consequence, knowledge of the mechanism behind a possible regime shift is needed before EWS can be used to predict it.     

基因芯片表达谱数据的预处理分析

基因芯片数据的预处理是一个十分关键的步骤,通过数据过滤获取需要的数据、数据转换满足正态分布的分析要求、缺失值的估计弥补不完整的数据、数据归一化纠正系统误差等处理为后续分析工作做准备,预处理分析的重要性并不亚于基因芯片的后续分析,它将直接影响后续分析是否能得到预期的结果.本文重点综述了cDNA芯片的数据预处理,简要地概述寡核苷酸芯片的数据预处理.     

Biologic adjuvants for fracture healing

Bone tissue has an exceptional quality to regenerate to native tissue in response to injury. However, the fracture repair process requires mechanical stability or a viable biological microenvironment or both to ensure successful healing to native tissue. An improved understanding of the molecular and cellular events that occur during bone repair and remodeling has led to the development of biologic agents that can augment the biological microenvironment and enhance bone repair. Orthobiologics, including stem cells, osteoinductive growth factors, osteoconductive matrices, and anabolic agents, are available clinically for accelerating fracture repair and treatment of compromised bone repair situations like delayed unions and nonunions. Preclinical and clinical studies using biologic agents like recombinant bone morphogenetic proteins have demonstrated an efficacy similar or better than that of autologous bone graft in acute fracture healing. A lack of standardized outcome measures for comparison of biologic agents in clinical fracture repair trials, frequent off-label use, and a limited understanding of the biological activity of these agents at the bone repair site have limited their efficacy in clinical applications.     

On signals of phase transitions in salmon population dynamics

Critical slowing down (CSD) reflects the decline in resilience of equilibria near a bifurcation and may reveal early warning signals (EWS) of ecological phase transitions. We studied CSD in the recruitment dynamics of 120 stocks of three Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) species in relation to critical transitions in fishery models. Pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) exhibited increased variability and autocorrelation in populations that had a growth parameter, r, close to zero, consistent with EWS of extinction. However, models and data for sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) indicate that portfolio effects from heterogeneity in age-at-maturity may obscure EWS. Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) show intermediate results. The data do not reveal EWS of Ricker-type bifurcations that cause oscillations and chaos at high r. These results not only provide empirical support for CSD in some ecological systems, but also indicate that portfolio effects of age structure may conceal EWS of some critical transitions.     

Study of thermal effects of ultrasound stimulation on fracture healing

Low intensity ultrasound stimulation has been used as a strategy to promote fracture healing. This study investigated the mechanism of ultrasound stimulation in enhancing fracture healing. Forty-five adult New Zealand White rabbits were divided into control, microwave treated, and ultrasound stimulation groups. After anesthesia, transverse osteotomy was created at midportion of the fibula bone. Intravital staining followed by fluorescence microscopic examination of new bone formation in the osteotomy site and biomechanical tests on torsional stiffness of the osteotomy site were performed. The difference between each examination was evaluated and analyzed. After ultrasound stimulation, new bone formation in the osteotomy site of the stimulated limb was 23.1-35.8% faster than that of the sham treated limb; the torsional stiffness of the stimulated limb was 44.4-80.0% higher than that of the sham treated limb. In the group of microwave hyperthermia treatment, the new bone formation was higher than that of the sham treated limb, but the difference was not statistically significant. The difference in torsional stiffness between the microwave hyperthermia treated limbs and the sham treated limb was not quite statistically significant. We demonstrated that low intensity ultrasound stimulation could increase the new bone formation and torsional stiffness. These effects probably are not mediated via hyperthermia.     

Osteogenic growth peptide enhances the rate of fracture healing in rabbits

The discovery of growth factors, such as osteogenic growth peptide (OGP), that stimulate bone formation led to experiments to discover whether they can accelerate fracture healing. To determine whether OGP enhances the rate of healing in rabbits, fractures were made in the tibiae of New Zealand White rabbits and immobilized with either a plastic plate (unstable mechanical conditions), or a dynamic compression plate (stable mechanical conditions). OGP was administered to experimental animals by intravenous injection from day 4 until the day before sacrifice; control animals were not injected. After treatment with OGP, callus development under unstable mechanical conditions was accelerated. At 7 days, the cartilage in the centre of the callus was covered by bone and endochondral ossification had started; these events occur at 10 days in control fractures. Subsequently, endochondral ossification is completed earlier which allows the invasion of the fracture gap by cells, so that cortical union is complete by 21 to 28 days. In control fractures, bone is only beginning to form in the gaps at 28 days. There was no increase in the size of the callus in any of the experimental fractures compared to the untreated controls. Treatment with OGP has no observable effect on the rate of healing of fractures under stable mechanical conditions. These observations suggest that under unstable mechanical conditions only, the rate of callus formation and subsequent cortical healing is enhanced by treatment with OGP, but that the size of the callus is determined by mechanical and other factors.     

分析植物应答环境因子的一种有效平台--DNA微阵列

随着植物基因组测序工程的迅速发展,大量的DNA序列不断地快速对外公布。如何把这庞大的核苷酸序列信息与植物的生命活动有机地联系起来?高通量的DNA微阵列技术是连接植物基因组序列信息和植物功能基因组的桥梁;而且,这一技术在分析基因表达谱和基因的功能上已经得到了应用。通过简要叙述DNA微阵列技术的几个特点,着重分析近几年来该技术在研究植物对环境胁迫的响应机制以及环境信号间相互作用方面的应用。