BEHAVIORAL CONVERGENCE AND ADAPTIVE RADIATION: EFFECTS OF HABITAT USE ON TERRITORIAL BEHAVIOR IN ANOLIS LIZARDS

Most studies of adaptive radiations focus on morphological aspects of differentiation, yet behavior is also an important component of evolutionary diversification, often mediating the relationship between animal ecology and morphology. In species within radiations that are convergent in ecology and morphology, we then also expect convergence in behavior. Here, we examined 13 Anolis lizard species to determine whether territorial strategies have evolved convergently with morphology and habitat use. We evaluated two aspects of territoriality: behavioral defense of space via territorial displays, and territory overlap within and between sexes. Controlling for the phylogenetic relationships of the taxa in our study, we found that species similar in perch height and diameter convergently evolved patterns of territory overlap, whereas species similar in habitat visibility (the proportion of space that can be seen from a perch) convergently evolved display behavior. We also found that species with greater display time have more extensive male–male territory overlap. This study provides strong evidence for the role of habitat in the evolution of territoriality and suggests that the social structure of a species ultimately evolves in concert with habitat use and morphology.     

Studies in cave life evolution: a rationale for future theoretical developments using phylogenetic inference

As in every field of comparative biology, phylogeny provides an independent reference system in studies on cave life evolution to test current theoretical proposals. Using phylogeny, sound hypotheses on the ancestral states of characters and their subsequent changes can be made by polarizing the characters between related taxa. Hypotheses on evolutionary processes can also be tested by comparing the patterns they imply with independently inferred phylogenetic patterns. The power of the tests relies upon the independence of phylogenetic patterns (built with cladistics using Wagner parsimony) and the theoretical proposals under study. Classical assumptions on the evolution of troglobitic life are analysed with this methodology. The following points are discussed: what is a troglobitic taxon? Are there features characteristic of troglobitic taxa? Is troglobitic life an evolutionary dead end? What circumstances favour troglobitic evolution? Using phylogenetic analysis, the presence or absence of so-called troglomorphic features were inferred in troglobitic taxa. In fact these taxa can be characterized only by their behavioural ecology. Pre-adaptations (exaptations) can also be precisely defined. Cave living does not appear to be an evolutionary dead end. Two patterns subsequent to cave life appearance have been documented: speciation of troglobitic taxa in the subterranean environment, and reversal to an epigean habitat. Troglobitic life thus turns out to be one step in the diversification of clades. Troglobitic life is usually explained as an evolution under the pressure of unfavourable environmental conditions, or the conquest of a new resource, or the result of biological interactions (competition, predation). Phylogenetic analyses show that none of these hypotheses propose clear alternatives on cave life evolution. Moreover most of their a priori statements cannot easily be falsified. As such they have only limited explanatory power.     

Space use and social association in a gregarious ungulate: Testing the conspecific attraction and resource dispersion hypotheses

Animals use a variety of proximate cues to assess habitat quality when resources vary spatiotemporally. Two nonmutually exclusive strategies to assess habitat quality involve either direct assessment of landscape features or observation of social cues from conspecifics as a form of information transfer about forage resources. The conspecific attraction hypothesis proposes that individual space use is dependent on the distribution of conspecifics rather than the location of resource patches, whereas the resource dispersion hypothesis proposes that individual space use and social association are driven by the abundance and distribution of resources. We tested the conspecific attraction and the resource dispersion hypotheses as two nonmutually exclusive hypotheses explaining social association and of adult female caribou (Rangifer tarandus). We used location data from GPS collars to estimate interannual site fidelity and networks representing home range overlap and social associations among individual caribou. We found that home range overlap and social associations were correlated with resource distribution in summer and conspecific attraction in winter. In summer, when resources were distributed relatively homogeneously, interannual site fidelity was high and home range overlap and social associations were low. Conversely, in winter when resources were distributed relatively heterogeneously, interannual site fidelity was low and home range overlap and social associations were high. As access to resources changes across seasons, caribou appear to alter social behavior and space use. In summer, caribou may use cues associated with the distribution of forage, and in winter caribou may use cues from conspecifics to access forage. Our results have broad implications for our understanding of caribou socioecology, suggesting that caribou use season‐specific strategies to locate forage. Caribou populations continue to decline globally, and our finding that conspecific attraction is likely related to access to forage suggests that further fragmentation of caribou habitat could limit social association among caribou, particularly in winter when access to resources may be limited.     

Correlated evolution and Bayesian divergence time estimates of the Cimicoidea (Heteroptera: Cimicomorpha) reveal the evolutionary history

The diverse habitat types and discrete morphological characters of cimicoid species provide a unique opportunity to study correlated evolution. Phylogenetic relationships within Cimicoidea were determined using Bayesian analyses of molecular data, allowing the generation of testable hypotheses of correlated evolution. An investigation of the correlation between habitat selection and morphological characters revealed that a dead plant habitat was correlated with the filiform antennal type. Furthermore, molecular dating analysis was used to examine divergence times within the Cimicoidea. Transitions to live plants from dead plants for most cimicoid clades started right after the mid‐Cretaceous, coinciding with the radiation of the angiosperms. Using contingency analyses, we determined that evolutionary changes in morphological characters were dependent on habitat selection. Based on these results, we propose evolutionary historical hypotheses for the Cimicoidea.     

Why migrate? A test of the evolutionary precursor hypothesis

The question of why birds migrate is still poorly understood despite decades of debate. Previous studies have suggested that use of edge habitats and a frugivorous diet are precursors to the evolution of migration in Neotropical birds. However, these studies did not explore other ecological correlates of migration and did not control for phylogeny at the species level. We tested the evolutionary precursor hypothesis by examining the extent to which habitat and diet are associated with migratory behavior, using a species-level comparative analysis of the Tyranni. We used both migratory distance and sedentary versus migratory behavior as response variables. We also examined the influences of foraging group size, membership in mixed-species flocks, elevational range, and body mass on migratory behavior. Raw species analyses corroborated some results from studies that put forth the evolutionary precursor hypothesis, but phylogenetically independent contrast analyses highlighted an important interaction between habitat and diet and their roles as precursors to migration. Foraging group size was consistently associated with migratory behavior in both raw species and independent contrast analyses. Our results lead to a resource variability hypothesis that refines the evolutionary precursor hypothesis and reconciles the results of several studies examining precursors to migration in birds.     

Role of Opioid Peptides in Behavior of Invertebrates

Opioid peptides have been revealed in representatives of practically all large taxonomic groups of invertebrates, and the opiate receptors are found even in unicellulars. The opioid system seems to belong to the evolutionary ancient signal systems. The comparative data indicate that the most conservative and ancient function of opioids is control of the adequate level of protective reactions. In the infusorian Stentor the opiate ligands suppress a contractile response to mechanical stimulation, i.e., the protective behavior. In all studies multicellular invertebrates, agonists also suppress protective behavior, whereas antagonists produce opposite effects. This initially signal meaning of opioids might have become a basis for divergent development of their functions in evolution. Already in higher invertebrates, molluscs and arthropods, many functions of opioids, for example, stress-induced analgesia, regulation of feeding and mating behavior, of social aggression, are similar to those in vertebrates. It is suggested that the main events in formation of functions of the endogenous opioid system have occurred in the lower invertebrates that have remained so far the least studied.     

Testing abundance-range size relationships in European carabid beetles (Coleoptera, Carabidae)

Four of the eight hypotheses proposed in the literature for explaining the relationship between abundance and range size (the sampling artifact, phylogenetic non-independence, range position and resource breadth hypotheses) were tested by using atlas data for carabid beetles (Coleoptera, Carabidae) from Belgium, Denmark and the Netherlands. A positive relationship between abundance and partial range size was found in all three countries, and the variation in abundance was lower for widespread species. Analysis of the data did not support three of the proposed hypotheses, but did support the resource breadth hypothesis (species having broader environmental tolerances and being able to use a wider range or resources will have higher local densities and be more widely distributed than more specialised species). Examination of species' characteristics revealed that widespread species are generally large bodied, generalists (species with wide niche breadths occurring in a variety of habitat types) and are little influenced by human-altered landscapes, while species with restricted distributions are smaller bodied, specialists (species with small niche breadths occurring in only one or two habitat types), and favour natural habitat. Landscape alteration may be an important factor influencing carabid abundance and range size in these three countries with a long history of human-induced environmental changes.     

Indirect reciprocity and the evolution of “moral signals”

Signals regarding the behavior of others are an essential element of human moral systems and there are important evolutionary connections between language and large-scale cooperation. In particular, social communication may be required for the reputation tracking needed to stabilize indirect reciprocity. Additionally, scholars have suggested that the benefits of indirect reciprocity may have been important for the evolution of language and that social signals may have coevolved with large-scale cooperation. This paper investigates the possibility of such a coevolution. Using the tools of evolutionary game theory, we present a model that incorporates primitive “moral signaling” into a simple setting of indirect reciprocity. This model reveals some potential difficulties for the evolution of “moral signals.” We find that it is possible for “moral signals” to evolve alongside indirect reciprocity, but without some external pressure aiding the evolution of a signaling system, such a coevolution is unlikely.     

Ecological characteristics of insects that affect symbiotic relationships with mites

Parasites and pathogens that begin as symbionts, i.e., organisms living together in the same habitat, are some of the most promising drivers of species evolution. Because insects are highly diverse and important as ecosystem service agents and because mites can exert large effects on insect populations (capable of killing at least juveniles), insect–mite interactions have been analyzed from various perspectives, including evolutionary, ecological and pest‐management perspectives. Here, I review and examine insect–mite symbiotic associations to develop hypotheses concerning the factors that maintain and develop their relationships. Previous studies have hypothesized that insect sociality and mite richness and specificity affect insect–mite interactions. I found that both solitary and social insects, including parasocial and subsocial insects, harbor numbers of symbionts including species‐specific ones but few dangerous mite symbionts in their nests or habitats under natural conditions. Nest size or the amount of food resources in a nest may affect mite richness. On the basis of this review, I hypothesize that the insect characteristics relevant for mite symbiotic hosting are sharing the same habitat with mites and living in a nutrient‐rich habitat. I also suggest that many cases of species‐specific symbiosis began with phoresy. To test these hypotheses, phylogenetic information on mites living with insect groups and quantitative analysis to characterize each insect–mite relationship are necessary.     

The evolution of habitat specialisation in a group of marine triplefin fishes

There has been considerable interest in the directionality of resource specialisation during the diversification of lineages. We developed a quantitative method to investigate habitat specialisation in a radiation of New Zealand triplefin fishes, as habitat use appears to be an important axis of diversification in this marine group. The degree of specialisation in 15 species was calculated by comparing each individual to all other individuals of a species, thus allowing for quantitative distinction between species. Species differed in habitat specialisation, but Bayesian comparative methods found no directional trend in the evolution of resource use. Further analyses showed that specialisation had evolved gradually and was phylogenetically constrained, with most differences between species arising toward the tips of the tree. No correlation between the degree of specialisation and body size was detected in this group, suggesting that habitat specialisation evolved independently of body size. Habitat specialisation does not appear to have been an impediment to ecological diversification in this group. Rather, diversification in these fishes appears to have followed different evolutionary trajectories in habitat specialisation, one in which species have sub-partitioned available resources, and another in which species have expanded their use of resources. These findings support recent studies suggesting that diversification does not necessarily proceed from generalised ancestors to specialised descendants.     

What drives the evolution of body size in ectotherms? A global analysis across the amphibian tree of life

Aim

The emergence of large-scale patterns of animal body size is the central expectation of a wide range of (macro)ecological and evolutionary hypotheses. The drivers shaping these patterns include climate (e.g. Bergmann's rule), resource availability (e.g. ‘resource rule’), biogeographic settings and niche partitioning (e.g. adaptive radiation). However, these hypotheses often make opposing predictions about the trajectories of body size evolution. Therefore, whether underlying drivers of body size evolution can be identified remains an open question. Here, we employ the most comprehensive global dataset of body size in amphibians, to address multiple hypotheses that predict patterns of body size evolution based on climatic factors, ecology and biogeographic settings to identify underlying drivers and their generality across lineages.

Location

Global.

Time Period

Present.

Major Taxa Studied

Amphibians.

Methods

Using a global dataset spanning 7270 (>87% of) species of Anura, Caudata and Gymnophiona, we employed phylogenetic Bayesian modelling to test the roles of climate, resource availability, insularity, elevation, habitat use and diel activity on body size.

Results

Only climate and elevation drive body size patterns, and these processes are order-specific. Seasonality in precipitation and in temperature predict body size clines in anurans, whereas caecilian body size increases with aridity. However, neither of these drivers explained variation in salamander body size. In both anurans and caecilians, size increases with elevational range and with midpoint elevation in caecilians only. No effects of mean temperature, resource abundance, insularity, time of activity or habitat use were found.

Main Conclusions

Precipitation and temperature seasonality are the dominant climatic drivers of body size variation in amphibians overall. Bergmann's rule is consistently rejected, and so are other alternative hypotheses. We suggest that the rationale sustaining existing macroecological rules of body size is unrealistic in amphibians and discuss our findings in the context of the emerging hypothesis that climate change can drive body size shifts.     

Advances in our understanding of mammalian sex-biased dispersal

Sex-biased dispersal is an almost ubiquitous feature of mammalian life history, but the evolutionary causes behind these patterns still require much clarification. A quarter of a century since the publication of seminal papers describing general patterns of sex-biased dispersal in both mammals and birds, we review the advances in our theoretical understanding of the evolutionary causes of sex-biased dispersal, and those in statistical genetics that enable us to test hypotheses and measure dispersal in natural populations. We use mammalian examples to illustrate patterns and proximate causes of sex-biased dispersal, because by far the most data are available and because they exhibit an enormous diversity in terms of dispersal strategy, mating and social systems. Recent studies using molecular markers have helped to confirm that sex-biased dispersal is widespread among mammals and varies widely in direction and intensity, but there is a great need to bridge the gap between genetic information, observational data and theory. A review of mammalian data indicates that the relationship between direction of sex-bias and mating system is not a simple one. The role of social systems emerges as a key factor in determining intensity and direction of dispersal bias, but there is still need for a theoretical framework that can account for the complex interactions between inbreeding avoidance, kin competition and cooperation to explain the impressive diversity of patterns.     

The evolution of social behaviour in Blaberid cockroaches with diverse habitats and social systems: phylogenetic analysis of behavioural sequences

The adequacy and utility of behavioural characters in phylogenetics is widely acknowledged, especially for stereotyped behaviours. However, the most common behaviours are not stereotyped, and these are usually seen as inappropriate or more difficult to analyze in a phylogenetic context. A few methods have been proposed to deal with such data, although they have never been tested on samples larger than six species, which limits their evolutionary interest. In the present study, we perform behavioural observations on 13 cockroach species and derive behavioural phylogenetic characters with the successive event‐pairing method. We combine these characters with morphological and molecular data (approximately 6800 bp) in a phylogenetic study of 41 species. We then reconstruct ancestral states of the behavioural data to study evolution of social behaviour in these insects with regard to their social systems (i.e. solitary, gregarious, and subsocial) and diversity of habitat choice. We report for the first time that nonstereotyped behavioural data are adequate for phylogenetic analyses: they are no more homoplastic than traditional data, and support several phylogenetic relationships that we discuss. From an evolutionary perspective, we show that the solitary species Thanatophyllum akinetum does not display original behavioural interactions, suggesting phylogenetic inertia of interactive behaviours despite a radical change in social structure. Conversely, the subsocial species Parasphaeria boleiriana shows original behavioural interactions, which could result from its peculiar social system or habitat. We conclude that phylogenetic approaches in studies of behaviour are useful for deciphering evolution of behaviour and discriminating between its different modalities, even for nonstereotyped characters. © 2013 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 111 , 58–77.     

The evolutionary transition from subsocial to eusocial behaviour in Dictyoptera: phylogenetic evidence for modification of the "shift-in-dependent-care" hypothesis with a new subsocial cockroach

Cockroaches have always been used to understand the first steps of social evolution in termites because they are close relatives with less complex and integrated social behaviour. Termites are all eusocial and ingroup comparative analysis would be useless to infer the origin of their social behaviour. The cockroach genus Cryptocercus was used as a so-called "prototermite" model because it shows key-attributes similar to the termites (except Termitidae): wood-feeding, intestinal flagellates and subsocial behaviour. In spite of these comparisons between this subsocial cockroach and eusocial termites, the early and remote origin of eusocial behaviour in termites is not well understood yet and the study of other relevant "prototermite" models is however needed. A molecular phylogenetic analysis was carried out to validate a new "prototermite" model, Parasphaeria boleiriana which shows a peculiar combination of these key-attributes. It shows that these attributes of Parasphaeria boleiriana have an independent origin from those of other wood-eating cockroaches and termites. The case of P. boleiriana suggests that a short brood care was selected for with life on an ephemeral wood resource, even with the need for transmission of flagellates. These new phylogenetic insights modify evolutionary hypotheses, contradicting the assumption made with Cryptocercus model that a long brood care is necessary for cooperation between broods in the "shift-in-dependent-care" hypothesis. An ephemeral wood resource is suggested to prompt generation overlap and the evolution of cooperation, even if brood care is shortened.     

Does sociality drive the evolution of communicative complexity? A comparative test with ground-dwelling sciurid alarm calls

While sociality has been hypothesized to drive the evolution of communicative complexity, the relationship remains to be formally tested. We derive a continuous measure of social complexity from demographic data and use this variable to explain variation in alarm repertoire size in ground-dwelling sciurid rodents (marmots, Marmota spp.; prairie dogs, Cynomys spp.; and ground squirrels, Spermophilus spp.). About 40% of the variation in alarm call repertoire size was explained by social complexity in the raw data set. To determine the degree to which this relationship may have been influenced by historical relationships between species, we used five different phylogenetic hypotheses to calculate phylogenetically independent contrasts. Less variation was significantly explained in contrast-based analyses, but a general positive relationship remained. Social complexity explained more variation in alarm call repertoire size in marmots, while sociality explained no variation in repertoire size in prairie dogs and no variation in phylogenetically based analyses of squirrels. In most cases, substantial variation remained unexplained by social complexity. We acknowledge that factors other than social complexity, per se, may contribute to the evolution of alarm call repertoire size in sciurid rodents, and we discuss alternative hypotheses. Our measure of social complexity could be used by other researchers to test explicit evolutionary hypotheses that involve social complexity.     

Where to catch a fish? The influence of foraging tactics on the ecology of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Florida Bay,Florida

Observations of bottlenose dolphins ( Tursiops truncatus ) in Florida Bay, Florida, between 2002 and 2005 revealed the use of three distinct foraging tactics. The goal of this study was to identify ecological correlates with tactic use and describe the impact of foraging specializations on the overall habitat use and distribution patterns of this dolphin population. Foraging tactics showed strong association with contrasting environmental characteristics, primarily depth. Locations of two of these tactic groups were spatially repulsed. Analyses of sighting histories of individual dolphins observed at foraging events determined that dolphins which employed one tactic never employed the other, and vice versa . Although bottlenose dolphins have plastic foraging behaviors, dolphins in Florida Bay appear to specialize in one tactic and subsequently limit their overall distribution patterns to coincide with habitats that facilitate success using that foraging tactic. This study demonstrates how foraging behavior can be an ecological determinant of overall dolphin habitat use patterns and works to create spatial structure within a population due to consistent mapping of tactics onto environmental variation. These foraging specializations potentially impact the social and demographic patterns of this dolphin population. The possible evolutionary mechanisms behind this intraspecific variation, including resource limitation and social learning, are considered.     

A multi-gene phylogeny of Cephalopoda supports convergent morphological evolution in association with multiple habitat shifts in the marine environment

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The marine environment is comprised of numerous divergent organisms living under similar selective pressures, often resulting in the evolution of convergent structures such as the fusiform body shape of pelagic squids, fishes, and some marine mammals. However, little is known about the frequency of, and circumstances leading to, convergent evolution in the open ocean. Here, we present a comparative study of the molluscan class Cephalopoda, a marine group known to occupy habitats from the intertidal to the deep sea. Several lineages bear features that may coincide with a benthic or pelagic existence, making this a valuable group for testing hypotheses of correlated evolution. To test for convergence and correlation, we generate the most taxonomically comprehensive multi-gene phylogeny of cephalopods to date. We then create a character matrix of habitat type and morphological characters, which we use to infer ancestral character states and test for correlation between habitat and morphology. RESULTS: Our study utilizes a taxonomically well-sampled phylogeny to show convergent evolution in all six morphological characters we analyzed. Three of these characters also correlate with habitat. The presence of an autogenic photophore is correlated with a pelagic habitat, while the cornea and accessory nidamental gland correlate with a benthic lifestyle. Here, we present the first statistical tests for correlation between convergent traits and habitat in cephalopods to better understand the evolutionary history of characters that are adaptive in benthic or pelagic environments, respectively. DISCUSSION: Our study supports the hypothesis that habitat has influenced convergent evolution in the marine environment: benthic organisms tend to exhibit similar characteristics that confer protection from invasion by other benthic taxa, while pelagic organisms possess features that facilitate crypsis and communication in an environment lacking physical refuges. Features that have originated multiple times in distantly related lineages are likely adaptive for the organisms inhabiting a particular environment: studying the frequency and evolutionary history of such convergent characters can increase understanding of the underlying forces driving ecological and evolutionary transitions in the marine environment.     

Evolution and the classification of social behavior

Recent studies in the evolution of cooperation have shifted focus from altruistic to mutualistic cooperation. This change in focus is purported to reveal new explanations for the evolution of prosocial behavior. We argue that the common classification scheme for social behavior used to distinguish between altruistic and mutualistic cooperation is flawed because it fails to take into account dynamically relevant game-theoretic features. This leads some arguments about the evolution of cooperation to conflate dynamical scenarios that differ regarding the basic conditions on the emergence and maintenance of cooperation. We use the tools of evolutionary game theory to increase the resolution of the classification scheme and analyze what evolutionary inferences classifying social behavior can license.     

CSR ecological strategies and plant mating systems: outcrossing increases with competitiveness but stress‐tolerance is related to mixed mating

A number of plant traits influence the success of fertilization and reproduction in plants. Collectively these traits represent ecological syndromes that are of evolutionary significance. However, while an association between mating system and colonizing ability has been proposed, the existence of a broader relationship between mating system and a species’ position in ecological succession has not been extensively investigated. Grime's CSR theory stresses that an ecological succession can involve changes from colonizing to either competitive or stress‐tolerant strategies. How distinct dimensions of competitiveness and stress tolerance covary with mating systems has still not been considered. We designed a comparative approach to evaluate the link between mating system, life form and CSR strategies for 1996 herbaceous and woody species. We found that CSR strategies are significantly related to mating systems. Ruderal species – colonizers in early succession – were mostly selfers while more competitive species were more often outcrossers. On the other hand, greater physiological stress tolerance was associated with mixed mating systems. Outcrossing is classically expected to be advantageous for most life history strategies other than colonizers, but we suggest that reproductive assurance can counterbalance this effect in stressful environments where populations are sparse and pollinators are rare. Therefore, our results emphasize that competition and abiotic stresses are not equivalent selective pressures on the evolution of mating systems. Finally, we found plant life span to convey additional information on mating system variation, supporting its role for mating system evolution. These findings encourage further investigation of the evolutionary role of ecological strategies as syndromes of traits and suggest that the emergence of large databases of plant traits will help address the major evolutionary hypotheses on such syndromes.     

山水林田湖草沙生命共同体理念下社会-生态系统时空耦合及模拟预测

社会-生态系统(SES)耦合关系的研究可以更全面地理解人类活动对生态系统的影响,从而制定更合理的环境保护政策。将"山水林田湖草沙生命共同体理念"融入这一关系中,探究社会-生态系统间的时空耦合,可以促进社会-生态系统各要素的可持续利用和管理,并填补现有研究的空缺。赣州市拥有丰富的自然资源属于中国南方丘陵山地典型的生态区域,包涵山水林田湖草沙的各要素。以赣州市为例,分析2005-2020年社会-生态系统综合评估指标的演变规律,旨在深入了解社会-生态系统的复杂性,为其管理和保护提供科学依据。结果表明:(1)社会-生态系统框架中存在着系统间的耦合逻辑。主要体现在社会系统与资源系统的耦合、资源系统与生态系统的耦合、社会系统与生态系统的耦合三个方面。(2)2005-2020年,社会-生态系统综合评估指标在赣州市的中西部和东北部较高,在南部较低。中西部区域社会-生态系统呈现中、高耦合的格局,西部表现为失调。东南部多呈现低耦合格局。(3)2005-2030年基于SES框架的山、田、湖、治理、社会系统综合评估指数均呈现增长的变化趋势。水、林、草、行动者系统综合评估指数呈下降的变化趋势。基于社会-生态系统框架研究各系统间的耦合格局及其评估指数的模拟预测,对于深入理解社会-生态系统的内在机理、制定相关政策和管理措施、预防和应对生态灾害及推动可持续发展具有重要意义。