Pretreatment CD4 Cell Slope and Progression to AIDS or Death in HIV-Infected Patients Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy—The CASCADE Collaboration: A Collaboration of 23 Cohort Studies

Background

CD4 cell count is a strong predictor of the subsequent risk of AIDS or death in HIV-infected patients initiating combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). It is not known whether the rate of CD4 cell decline prior to therapy is related to prognosis and should, therefore, influence the decision on when to initiate cART.

Methods and Findings

We carried out survival analyses of patients from the 23 cohorts of the CASCADE (Concerted Action on SeroConversion to AIDS and Death in Europe) collaboration with a known date of HIV seroconversion and with at least two CD4 measurements prior to initiating cART. For each patient, a pre-cART CD4 slope was estimated using a linear mixed effects model. Our primary outcome was time from initiating cART to a first new AIDS event or death. We included 2,820 treatment-naïve patients initiating cART with a median (interquartile range) pre-cART CD4 cell decline of 61 (46–81) cells/µl per year; 255 patients subsequently experienced a new AIDS event or death and 125 patients died. In an analysis adjusted for established risk factors, the hazard ratio for AIDS or death was 1.01 (95% confidence interval 0.97–1.04) for each 10 cells/µl per year reduction in pre-cART CD4 cell decline. There was also no association between pre-cART CD4 cell slope and survival. Alternative estimates of CD4 cell slope gave similar results. In 1,731 AIDS-free patients with >350 CD4 cells/µl from the pre-cART era, the rate of CD4 cell decline was also not significantly associated with progression to AIDS or death (hazard ratio 0.99, 95% confidence interval 0.94–1.03, for each 10 cells/µl per year reduction in CD4 cell decline).

Conclusions

The CD4 cell slope does not improve the prediction of clinical outcome in patients with a CD4 cell count above 350 cells/µl. Knowledge of the current CD4 cell count is sufficient when deciding whether to initiate cART in asymptomatic patients. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

CD4 Cell Count and the Risk of AIDS or Death in HIV-Infected Adults on Combination Antiretroviral Therapy with a Suppressed Viral Load: A Longitudinal Cohort Study from COHERE

Background

Most adults infected with HIV achieve viral suppression within a year of starting combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). It is important to understand the risk of AIDS events or death for patients with a suppressed viral load.

Methods and Findings

Using data from the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (2010 merger), we assessed the risk of a new AIDS-defining event or death in successfully treated patients. We accumulated episodes of viral suppression for each patient while on cART, each episode beginning with the second of two consecutive plasma viral load measurements <50 copies/µl and ending with either a measurement >500 copies/µl, the first of two consecutive measurements between 50–500 copies/µl, cART interruption or administrative censoring. We used stratified multivariate Cox models to estimate the association between time updated CD4 cell count and a new AIDS event or death or death alone. 75,336 patients contributed 104,265 suppression episodes and were suppressed while on cART for a median 2.7 years. The mortality rate was 4.8 per 1,000 years of viral suppression. A higher CD4 cell count was always associated with a reduced risk of a new AIDS event or death; with a hazard ratio per 100 cells/µl (95% CI) of: 0.35 (0.30–0.40) for counts <200 cells/µl, 0.81 (0.71–0.92) for counts 200 to <350 cells/µl, 0.74 (0.66–0.83) for counts 350 to <500 cells/µl, and 0.96 (0.92–0.99) for counts ≥500 cells/µl. A higher CD4 cell count became even more beneficial over time for patients with CD4 cell counts <200 cells/µl.

Conclusions

Despite the low mortality rate, the risk of a new AIDS event or death follows a CD4 cell count gradient in patients with viral suppression. A higher CD4 cell count was associated with the greatest benefit for patients with a CD4 cell count <200 cells/µl but still some slight benefit for those with a CD4 cell count ≥500 cells/µl. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Effects of Intermittent IL-2 Alone or with Peri-Cycle Antiretroviral Therapy in Early HIV Infection: The STALWART Study

Background

The Study of Aldesleukin with and without antiretroviral therapy (STALWART) evaluated whether intermittent interleukin-2 (IL-2) alone or with antiretroviral therapy (ART) around IL-2 cycles increased CD4⁺ counts compared to no therapy.

Methodology

Participants not on continuous ART with ≥300 CD4⁺ cells/mm³ were randomized to: no treatment; IL-2 for 5 consecutive days every 8 weeks for 3 cycles; or the same IL-2 regimen with 10 days of ART administered around each IL-2 cycle. CD4⁺ counts, HIV RNA, and HIV progression events were collected monthly.

Principal Findings

A total of 267 participants were randomized. At week 32, the mean CD4⁺ count was 134 cells greater in the IL-2 alone group (p<0.001), and 133 cells greater in the IL-2 plus ART group (p<0.001) compared to the no therapy group. Twelve participants in the IL-2 groups compared to 1 participant in the group assigned to no therapy experienced an opportunistic event or died (HR 5.84, CI: 0.59 to 43.57; p = 0.009).

Conclusions

IL-2 alone or with peri-cycle HAART increases CD4⁺ counts but was associated with a greater number of opportunistic events or deaths compared to no therapy. These results call into question the immunoprotective significance of IL-2-induced CD4⁺ cells.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00110812","term_id":"NCT00110812"}}NCT00110812     

Three Generic Nevirapine-Based Antiretroviral Treatments in Chinese HIV/AIDS Patients: Multicentric Observation Cohort

Background

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of three nevirapine-based antiretroviral treatments for adult antiretroviral-naïve Chinese patients with HIV-1 infection.

Methodology

This was a prospective, multicenter study. 198 antiretroviral-naïve HIV-1 positive subjects with CD4 lymphocyte counts between 100/ul and 350/ul and plasma HIV-1 RNA levels more than 500 copies/ml were randomized to start three NVP-based antiretroviral treatments: group A, NVP+AZT+ddI; group B, NVP+3TC+d4T; group C, NVP+AZT+3TC. Viral responses, immunologic responses, adverse events and drug resistence were monitored at baseline and the end of week 4, 12, 24, 36, 52. Viralogical response and immunological response were also comparaed in different strata of baseline CD4 T lymphocyte counts and plasma HIV-1 RNA concentrations. At baseline, the plasma HIV-1 RNA was 4.44±0.68, 4.52±0.71 and 4.41±0.63 lg copies/ml in group A, B and C respectively (p = 0.628). At the end of the study, the plasma viral load reached 2.54±1.11, 1.89±0.46 and 1.92±0.58 lg copies/ml in group A, B and C respectively (p<0.001). At week 52, suppression of plasma HIV-1 RNA to less than 50 copies/ml was achieved in more patients in group B and C than in group A (68.2%, 69% vs. 39.7%; p<0.001). In planned subgroup analyses, the decrease of viral response rate was seen in group A when CD4 cell count >200/ul (subgroup H). But in subgroup L, viral response rate of three groups has no significant statistic difference. There were no statistically significant differences among three groups in immunological response wthin any of the CD4 or pVL strata. 3 out of 193 patients with available genotype at baseline showed primary drug resistant. Of 26 patients with virologic failure, 17 patients showed secondary drug resistant, 16 subjects in group A and 1 subject in group B. Logistic regression analysis indicated that presence of hepatotoxicity was associated with HCV-Ab positive (OR = 2.096, 95%CI: 1.106–3.973, P = 0.023) and higher CD4 baseline (CD4 count >250/ul)(OR = 2.096, 95%CI: 1.07–4.107, P = 0.031).

Conclusion

Our findings strongly support the use of 3TC+d4T and 3TC+AZT as the nucleoside analogue combination in NVP-based antiretroviral therapy. The regimen of AZT+ddI+NVP produced poor virological response especially in the stratum of CD4 count more than 200/ul. More patients showed secondary drug resistant in this arm too. Patients with HCV-Ab+ and CD4 count >250/ul appear to have significantly high risk of hepatoxicity.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00618176","term_id":"NCT00618176"}}NCT00618176     

Restoration of CMV-Specific-CD4 T Cells with ART Occurs Early and Is Greater in Those with More Advanced Immunodeficiency

Objectives

Restoration of Cytomegalovirus-specific-CD4 T cell (CMV-Sp-CD4) responses partly accounts for the reduction of CMV-disease with antiretroviral-therapy (ART), but CMV-Sp-CD4 may also drive immune activation and immunosenescence. This study characterized the dynamics of CMV-Sp-CD4 after ART initiation and explored associations with CD4 T cell recovery as well as frequency of naïve CD4 T cells at week 96.

Methods

Fifty HIV-infected, ART-naïve Thai adults with CD4 T cell count ≤350cells/µL and starting ART were evaluated over 96 weeks (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT01296373). CMV-Sp-CD4 was detected by co-expression of CD25/CD134 by flow cytometry after CMV-antigen stimulation.

Results

All subjects were CMV sero-positive, 4 had quantifiable CMV-DNA (range 2.3-3.9 log₁₀ copies/mL) at baseline but none had clinically apparent CMV-disease. Baseline CMV-Sp-CD4 response was positive in 40 subjects. Those with CD4 T cell count <100cells/µL were less likely to have positive baseline CMV-Sp-CD4 response (P=0.003). Positive baseline CMV-Sp-CD4 response was associated with reduced odds of quantifiable CMV-DNA (P=0.022). Mean CD4 T cell increase at week 96 was 213 cells/µL. This was associated positively with baseline HIV-VL (P=0.001) and negatively with age (P=0.003). The frequency of CMV-Sp-CD4 increased at week 4 (P=0.008), then declined. Those with lower baseline CMV-Sp-CD4 (P=0.009) or CDC category C (P<0.001) had greater increases in CMV-Sp-CD4 at week 4. At week 96, CD4 T cell count was positively (P<0.001) and the frequency of CMV-Sp-CD4 was negatively (P=0.001) associated with the percentage of naïve CD4 T cells.

Conclusions

Increases in CMV-Sp-CD4 with ART occurred early and were greater in those with more advanced immunodeficiency. The frequency of CMV-Sp-CD4 was associated with reduced naïve CD4 T cells, a marker associated with immunosenescence.     

Technical Performance Evaluation of the MyT4 Point of Care Technology for CD4+ T Cell Enumeration

Objective

Though absolute CD4+ T cell enumeration is the primary gateway to antiretroviral therapy initiation for HIV-positive patients in all developing countries, patient access to this critical diagnostic test is relatively poor. We technically evaluated the performance of a newly developed point-of-care CD4+ T cell technology, the MyT4, compared with conventional CD4+ T cell testing technologies.

Design

Over 250 HIV-positive patients were consecutively enrolled and their blood tested on the MyT4, BD FACSCalibur, and BD FACSCount.

Results

Compared with the BD FACSCount, the MyT4 had an r² of 0.7269 and a mean bias of −23.37 cells/µl. Compared with the BD FACSCalibur, the MyT4 had an r² of 0.5825 and a mean bias of −46.58 cells/µl. Kenya currently uses a CD4+ T cell test threshold of 350 cells/µl to determine patient eligibility for antiretroviral therapy. At this threshold, the MyT4 had a sensitivity of 95.3% (95% CI: 88.4–98.7%) and a specificity of 87.9% (95% CI: 82.3–92.3%) compared with the BD FACSCount and sensitivity and specificity of 88.2% (95% CI: 79.4–94.2%) and 84.2% (95% CI: 78.2–89.2%), respectively, compared with the BD FACSCalibur. Finally, the MyT4 had a coefficient of variation of 12.80% compared with 14.03% for the BD FACSCalibur.

Conclusions

We conclude that the MyT4 performed well at the current 350 cells/µl ART initiation eligibility threshold when used by lower cadres of health care facility staff in rural clinics compared to conventional CD4+ T cell technologies.     

Prioritizing CD4 Count Monitoring in Response to ART in Resource-Constrained Settings: A Retrospective Application of Prediction-Based Classification

Background

Global programs of anti-HIV treatment depend on sustained laboratory capacity to assess treatment initiation thresholds and treatment response over time. Currently, there is no valid alternative to CD4 count testing for monitoring immunologic responses to treatment, but laboratory cost and capacity limit access to CD4 testing in resource-constrained settings. Thus, methods to prioritize patients for CD4 count testing could improve treatment monitoring by optimizing resource allocation.

Methods and Findings

Using a prospective cohort of HIV-infected patients (n = 1,956) monitored upon antiretroviral therapy initiation in seven clinical sites with distinct geographical and socio-economic settings, we retrospectively apply a novel prediction-based classification (PBC) modeling method. The model uses repeatedly measured biomarkers (white blood cell count and lymphocyte percent) to predict CD4⁺ T cell outcome through first-stage modeling and subsequent classification based on clinically relevant thresholds (CD4⁺ T cell count of 200 or 350 cells/µl). The algorithm correctly classified 90% (cross-validation estimate = 91.5%, standard deviation [SD] = 4.5%) of CD4 count measurements <200 cells/µl in the first year of follow-up; if laboratory testing is applied only to patients predicted to be below the 200-cells/µl threshold, we estimate a potential savings of 54.3% (SD = 4.2%) in CD4 testing capacity. A capacity savings of 34% (SD = 3.9%) is predicted using a CD4 threshold of 350 cells/µl. Similar results were obtained over the 3 y of follow-up available (n = 619). Limitations include a need for future economic healthcare outcome analysis, a need for assessment of extensibility beyond the 3-y observation time, and the need to assign a false positive threshold.

Conclusions

Our results support the use of PBC modeling as a triage point at the laboratory, lessening the need for laboratory-based CD4⁺ T cell count testing; implementation of this tool could help optimize the use of laboratory resources, directing CD4 testing towards higher-risk patients. However, further prospective studies and economic analyses are needed to demonstrate that the PBC model can be effectively applied in clinical settings. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Efficacy and Safety of Antiretroviral Therapy Initiated One Week after Tuberculosis Therapy in Patients with CD4 Counts < 200 Cells/μL: TB-HAART Study,a Randomized Clinical Trial

BackgroundGiven the high death rate the first two months of tuberculosis (TB) therapy in HIV patients, it is critical defining the optimal time to initiate combination antiretroviral therapy (cART).MethodsA randomized, open-label, clinical trial comparing efficacy and safety of efavirenz-based cART initiated one week, four weeks, and eight weeks after TB therapy in patients with baseline CD4 count < 200 cells/μL was conducted. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality rate at 48 weeks. The secondary endpoints were hepatotoxicity-requiring interruption of TB therapy, TB-associated immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome, new AIDS defining illnesses, CD4 counts, HIV RNA levels, and AFB smear conversion rates. All analyses were intention-to-treat.ResultsWe studied 478 patients with median CD4 count of 73 cells/μL and 5.2 logs HIV RNA randomized to week one (n = 163), week four (n = 160), and week eight (n = 155). Sixty-four deaths (13.4%) occurred in 339.2 person-years. All-cause mortality rates at 48 weeks were 25 per 100 person-years in week one, 18 per 100 person-years in week four and 15 per 100 person-years in week eight (P = 0.2 by the log-rank test). All-cause mortality incidence rate ratios in subgroups with CD4 count below 50 cells/μL versus above were 2.8 in week one (95% CI 1.2–6.7), 3.1 in week four (95% CI 1.2–8.6) and 5.1 in week eight (95% CI 1.8–16). Serum albumin < 3gms/dL (adjusted HR, aHR = 2.3) and CD4 < 50 cells/μL (aHR = 2.7) were independent predictors of mortality. Compared with similar subgroups from weeks four and eight, first-line TB treatment interruption was high in week one deaths (P = 0.03) and in the CD4 subgroup <50 cells/μL (P = 0.02).ConclusionsAntiretroviral therapy one week after TB therapy doesn’t improve overall survival. Despite increased mortality with CD4 < 50 cells/μL, we recommend cART later than the first week of TB therapy to avoid serious hepatotoxicity and treatment interruption.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT 01315301","term_id":"NCT01315301"}}NCT 01315301     

CD4 Cell Count Trends after Commencement of Antiretroviral Therapy among HIV-Infected Patients in Tigray,Northern Ethiopia: A Retrospective Cross-Sectional Study

Background

The rate and extent of CD4 cell recovery varies widely among HIV-infected patients with different baseline CD4 cell count strata. The objective of the study was to assess trends in CD4 cell counts in HIV-infected patients after initiation of antiretroviral therapy in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia.

Methods

A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted by reviewing medical records of HIV patients who received antiretroviral treatment at twenty health centers in Tigray region during 2008–2012. Multi-stage cluster sampling technique was employed to collect data, and the data were analyzed using SPSS version 20.0 software.

Results

The median change from baseline to the most recent CD4 cell count was +292 cells/μl. By 5 years, the overall median (inter-quartile range, IQR) CD4 cell count was 444(263-557) cells/μl while the median (IQR) CD4 cell count was 342(246-580) cells/μl among patients with baseline CD4 cell counts ≤200 cells/μl, 500(241-557) cells/μl among those with baseline CD4 cell counts of 201–350 cells/μl, and 652(537-767) cells/μl among those with baseline CD4 cell counts >350 cells/μl. Higher baseline CD4 cell counts and being male were independently associated with the risk of immunological non-response at 12 months. Furthermore, it was also investigated that these factors were significant predictors of subsequent CD4 cell recovery.

Conclusions

Patients with higher baseline CD4 cell stratum returned to normal CD4 Cell counts though they had an increased risk of immunological non-response at 12 months compared to those with the least baseline CD4 cell stratum. The findings suggest that consideration be given to initiation of HAART at a CD4 cell count >350 cells/μl to achieve better immune recovery, and to HIV-infected male patients to improve their health seeking behavior.     

Population-Based CD4 Counts in a Rural Area in South Africa with High HIV Prevalence and High Antiretroviral Treatment Coverage

Background

Little is known about the variability of CD4 counts in the general population of sub-Saharan Africa countries affected by the HIV epidemic. We investigated factors associated with CD4 counts in a rural area in South Africa with high HIV prevalence and high antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage.

Methods

CD4 counts, health status, body mass index (BMI), demographic characteristics and HIV status were assessed in 4990 adult resident participants of a demographic surveillance in rural KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa; antiretroviral treatment duration was obtained from a linked clinical database. Multivariable regression analysis, overall and stratified by HIV status, was performed with CD4 count levels as outcome.

Results

Median CD4 counts were significantly higher in women than in men overall (714 vs. 630 cells/µl, p<0.0001), both in HIV-uninfected (833 vs. 683 cells/µl, p<0.0001) and HIV-infected adults (384.5 vs. 333 cells/µl, p<0.0001). In multivariable regression analysis, women had 19.4% (95% confidence interval (CI) 16.1–22.9) higher CD4 counts than men, controlling for age, HIV status, urban/rural residence, household wealth, education, BMI, self-reported tuberculosis, high blood pressure, other chronic illnesses and sample processing delay. At ART initiation, HIV-infected adults had 21.7% (95% CI 14.6–28.2) lower CD4 counts than treatment-naive individuals; CD4 counts were estimated to increase by 9.2% (95% CI 6.2–12.4) per year of treatment.

Conclusions

CD4 counts are primarily determined by sex in HIV-uninfected adults, and by sex, age and duration of antiretroviral treatment in HIV-infected adults. Lower CD4 counts at ART initiation in men could be a consequence of lower CD4 cell counts before HIV acquisition.     

Safety and Immunogenicity of H1/IC31?, an Adjuvanted TB Subunit Vaccine,in HIV-Infected Adults with CD4+ Lymphocyte Counts Greater than 350 cells/mm3: A Phase II,Multi-Centre,Double-Blind,Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Trial

Background

Novel tuberculosis vaccines should be safe, immunogenic, and effective in various population groups, including HIV-infected individuals. In this phase II multi-centre, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, the safety and immunogenicity of the novel H1/IC31 vaccine, a fusion protein of Ag85B-ESAT-6 (H1) formulated with the adjuvant IC31, was evaluated in HIV-infected adults.

Methods

HIV-infected adults with CD4+ T cell counts >350/mm³ and without evidence of active tuberculosis were enrolled and followed until day 182. H1/IC31 vaccine or placebo was randomly allocated in a 5∶1 ratio. The vaccine was administered intramuscularly at day 0 and 56. Safety assessment was based on medical history, clinical examinations, and blood and urine testing. Immunogenicity was determined by a short-term whole blood intracellular cytokine staining assay.

Results

47 of the 48 randomised participants completed both vaccinations. In total, 459 mild or moderate and 2 severe adverse events were reported. There were three serious adverse events in two vaccinees classified as not related to the investigational product. Local injection site reactions were more common in H1/IC31 versus placebo recipients (65.0% vs. 12.5%, p = 0.015). Solicited systemic and unsolicited adverse events were similar by study arm. The baseline CD4+ T cell count and HIV viral load were similar by study arm and remained constant over time. The H1/IC31 vaccine induced a persistent Th1-immune response with predominately TNF-α and IL-2 co-expressing CD4+ T cells, as well as polyfunctional IFN-γ, TNF-α and IL-2 expressing CD4+ T cells.

Conclusion

H1/IC31 was well tolerated and safe in HIV-infected adults with a CD4+ Lymphocyte count greater than 350 cells/mm³. The vaccine did not have an effect on CD4+ T cell count or HIV-1 viral load. H1/IC31 induced a specific and durable Th1 immune response.

Trial registration

Pan African Clinical Trials Registry (PACTR) PACTR201105000289276     

Bacterial Pneumonia among HIV-Infected Patients: Decreased Risk After Tobacco Smoking Cessation. ANRS CO3 Aquitaine Cohort, 2000–2007

Background

Bacterial pneumonia is still a substantial cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected patients in the era of combination Antiretroviral Therapy. The benefit of tobacco withdrawal on the risk of bacterial pneumonia has not been quantified in such populations, exposed to other important risk factors such as HIV-related immunodeficiency. Our objective was to estimate the effect of tobacco smoking withdrawal on the risk of bacterial pneumonia among HIV-infected individuals.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Patients of the ANRS CO3 Aquitaine Cohort with ≥ two visits during 2000–2007 and without bacterial pneumonia at the first visit were included. Former smokers were patients who stopped smoking since ≥ one year. We used Cox proportional hazards models adjusted on CD4+ lymphocytes (CD4), gender, age, HIV transmission category, antiretroviral therapy, cotrimoxazole prophylaxis, statin treatment, viral load and previous AIDS diagnosis. 135 cases of bacterial pneumonia were reported in 3336 patients, yielding an incidence of 12 ‰ patient-years. The adjusted hazard of bacterial pneumonia was lower in former smokers (Hazard Ratio (HR): 0.48; P = 0.02) and never smokers (HR: 0.50; P = 0.01) compared to current smokers. It was higher in patients with <200 CD4 cells/µL and in those with 200 to 349 CD4 cells/µL (HR: 2.98 and 1.98, respectively; both P<0.01), but not in those with 350 to 499 CD4 cells/µL (HR: 0.93; P = 0.79), compared to those with ≥500 CD4 cells/µL. The interaction between CD4 cell count and tobacco smoking status was not statistically significant.

Conclusions/Significance

Smoking cessation dramatically reduces the risk of bacterial pneumonia, whatever the level of immunodeficiency. Smoking cessation interventions should become a key element of the clinical management of HIV-infected individuals.     

Long-Term Survival in HIV Positive Patients with up to 15 Years of Antiretroviral Therapy

Background

Life expectancy has increased for newly diagnosed HIV patients since the inception of combination antiretroviral treatment (cART), but there remains a need to better understand the characteristics of long-term survival in HIV-positive patients. We examined long-term survival in HIV-positive patients receiving cART in the Australian HIV Observational Database (AHOD), to describe changes in mortality compared to the general population and to develop longer-term survival models.

Methods

Data were examined from 2,675 HIV-positive participants in AHOD who started cART. Standardised mortality ratios (SMR) were calculated by age, sex and calendar year across prognostic characteristics using Australian Bureau of Statistics national data as reference. SMRs were examined by years of duration of cART by CD4 and similarly by viral load. Survival was analysed using Cox-proportional hazards and parametric survival models.

Results

The overall SMR for all-cause mortality was 3.5 (95% CI: 3.0–4.0). SMRs by CD4 count were 8.6 (95% CI: 7.2–10.2) for CD4<350 cells/µl; 2.1 (95% CI: 1.5–2.9) for CD4 = 350–499 cells/µl; and 1.5 (95% CI: 1.1–2.0) for CD4≥500 cells/µl. SMRs for patients with CD4 counts <350 cells/µL were much higher than for patients with higher CD4 counts across all durations of cART. SMRs for patients with viral loads greater than 400 copies/ml were much higher across all durations of cART. Multivariate models demonstrated improved survival associated with increased recent CD4, reduced recent viral load, younger patients, absence of HBVsAg-positive ever, year of HIV diagnosis and incidence of ADI. Parametric models showed a fairly constant mortality risk by year of cART up to 15 years of treatment.

Conclusion

Observed mortality remained fairly constant by duration of cART and was modelled accurately by accepted prognostic factors. These rates did not vary much by duration of treatment. Changes in mortality with age were similar to those in the Australian general population.     

Using Plasma Viral Load to Guide Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation to Prevent HIV-1 Transmission

Background

Current WHO guidelines recommend antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation at CD4 counts ≤350 cells/µL. Increasing this threshold has been proposed, with a primary goal of reducing HIV-1 infectiousness. Because the quantity of HIV-1 in plasma is the primary predictor of HIV-1 transmission, consideration of plasma viral load in ART initiation guidelines is warranted.

Methods

Using per-sex-act infectivity estimates and cross-sectional sexual behavior data from 2,484 HIV-1 infected persons with CD4 counts >350 enrolled in a study of African heterosexual HIV-1 serodiscordant couples, we calculated the number of transmissions expected and the number potentially averted under selected scenarios for ART initiation: i) CD4 count <500 cells/µL, ii) viral load ≥10,000 or ≥50,000 copies/mL and iii) universal treatment. For each scenario, we estimated the proportion of expected infections that could be averted, the proportion of infected persons initiating treatment, and the ratio of these proportions.

Results

Initiating treatment at viral load ≥50,000 copies/mL would require treating 19.8% of infected persons with CD4 counts >350 while averting 40.5% of expected transmissions (ratio 2.0); treating at viral load ≥10,0000 copies/mL had a ratio of 1.5. In contrast, initiation at CD4 count <500 would require treating 41.8%, while averting 48.4% (ratio 1.1).

Conclusion

Inclusion of viral load in ART initiation guidelines could permit targeting ART resources to HIV-1 infected persons who have a higher risk of transmitting HIV-1. Further work is needed to estimate costs and feasibility.     

No Association of Cryptococcal Antigenemia with Poor Outcomes among Antiretroviral Therapy-Experienced HIV-Infected Patients in Addis Ababa,Ethiopia

Introduction

There are limited data on clinical outcomes of ART-experienced patients with cryptococcal antigenemia. We assessed clinical outcomes of a predominantly asymptomatic, ART-experienced cohort of HIV+ patients previously found to have a high (8.4%) prevalence of cryptococcal antigenemia.

Methods

The study took place at All Africa Leprosy, Tuberculosis and Rehabilitative Training Centre and Black Lion Hospital HIV Clinics in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. A retrospective study design was used to perform 12-month follow-up of 367 mostly asymptomatic HIV-infected patients (CD4<200 cells/µl) with high levels of antiretroviral therapy use (74%) who were previously screened for cryptococcal antigenemia. Medical chart abstraction was performed approximately one year after initial screening to obtain data on clinic visit history, ART use, CD4 count, opportunistic infections, and patient outcome. We evaluated the association of cryptococcal antigenemia and a composite poor outcome of death and loss to follow-up using logistic regression.

Results

Overall, 323 (88%) patients were alive, 8 (2%) dead, and 36 (10%) lost to follow-up. Among the 31 patients with a positive cryptococcal antigen test (titers ≥1∶8) at baseline, 28 were alive (all titers ≤1∶512), 1 dead and 2 lost to follow-up (titers ≥1∶1024). In multivariate analysis, cryptococcal antigenemia was not predictive of a poor outcome (aOR = 1.3, 95% CI 0.3–4.8). A baseline CD4 count <100 cells/µl was associated with an increased risk of a poor outcome (aOR 3.0, 95% CI 1.4–6.7) while an increasing CD4 count (aOR 0.1, 95% CI 0.1–0.3) and receiving antiretroviral therapy at last follow-up visit (aOR 0.1, 95% CI 0.02–0.2) were associated with a reduced risk of a poor outcome.

Conclusions

Unlike prior ART-naïve cohorts, we found that among persons receiving ART and with CD4 counts <200 cells/µl, asymptomatic cryptococcal antigenemia was not predictive of a poor outcome.     

Effects of Prednisolone on Disease Progression in Antiretroviral-Untreated HIV Infection: A 2-Year Randomized,Double-Blind Placebo-Controlled Clinical Trial

Background

HIV-disease progression correlates with immune activation. Here we investigated whether corticosteroid treatment can attenuate HIV disease progression in antiretroviral-untreated patients.

Methods

Double-blind, placebo-controlled randomized clinical trial including 326 HIV-patients in a resource-limited setting in Tanzania (clinicaltrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT01299948","term_id":"NCT01299948"}}NCT01299948). Inclusion criteria were a CD4 count above 300 cells/μl, the absence of AIDS-defining symptoms and an ART-naïve therapy status. Study participants received 5 mg prednisolone per day or placebo for 2 years. Primary endpoint was time to progression to an AIDS-defining condition or to a CD4-count below 200 cells/μl.

Results

No significant change in progression towards the primary endpoint was observed in the intent-to-treat (ITT) analysis (19 cases with prednisolone versus 28 cases with placebo, p = 0.1407). In a per-protocol (PP)-analysis, 13 versus 24 study participants progressed to the primary study endpoint (p = 0.0741). Secondary endpoints: Prednisolone-treatment decreased immune activation (sCD14, suPAR, CD38/HLA-DR/CD8+) and increased CD4-counts (+77.42 ± 5.70 cells/μl compared to -37.42 ± 10.77 cells/μl under placebo, p < 0.0001). Treatment with prednisolone was associated with a 3.2-fold increase in HIV viral load (p < 0.0001). In a post-hoc analysis stratifying for sex, females treated with prednisolone progressed significantly slower to the primary study endpoint than females treated with placebo (ITT-analysis: 11 versus 21 cases, p = 0.0567; PP-analysis: 5 versus 18 cases, p = 0.0051): No changes in disease progression were observed in men.

Conclusions

This study could not detect any significant effects of prednisolone on disease progression in antiretroviral-untreated HIV infection within the intent-to-treat population. However, significant effects were observed on CD4 counts, immune activation and HIV viral load. This study contributes to a better understanding of the role of immune activation in the pathogenesis of HIV infection.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT01299948","term_id":"NCT01299948"}}NCT01299948     

A Clinical Algorithm to Identify HIV Patients at High Risk for Incident Active Tuberculosis: A Prospective 5-Year Cohort Study

Background

Predicting the risk of tuberculosis (TB) in people living with HIV (PLHIV) using a single test is currently not possible. We aimed to develop and validate a clinical algorithm, using baseline CD4 cell counts, HIV viral load (pVL), and interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA), to identify PLHIV who are at high risk for incident active TB in low-to-moderate TB burden settings where highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) is routinely provided.

Materials and Methods

A prospective, 5-year, cohort study of adult PLHIV was conducted from 2006 to 2012 in two hospitals in Taiwan. HAART was initiated based on contemporary guidelines (CD4 count < = 350/μL). Cox regression was used to identify the predictors of active TB and to construct the algorithm. The validation cohorts included 1455 HIV-infected individuals from previous published studies. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was calculated.

Results

Seventeen of 772 participants developed active TB during a median follow-up period of 5.21 years. Baseline CD4 < 350/μL or pVL ≥ 100,000/mL was a predictor of active TB (adjusted HR 4.87, 95% CI 1.49–15.90, P = 0.009). A positive baseline IGRA predicted TB in patients with baseline CD4 ≥ 350/μL and pVL < 100,000/mL (adjusted HR 6.09, 95% CI 1.52–24.40, P = 0.01). Compared with an IGRA-alone strategy, the algorithm improved the sensitivity from 37.5% to 76.5%, the negative predictive value from 98.5% to 99.2%. Compared with an untargeted strategy, the algorithm spared 468 (60.6%) from unnecessary TB preventive treatment. Area under the ROC curve was 0.692 (95% CI: 0.587–0.798) for the study cohort and 0.792 (95% CI: 0.776–0.808) and 0.766 in the 2 validation cohorts.

Conclusions

A validated algorithm incorporating the baseline CD4 cell count, HIV viral load, and IGRA status can be used to guide targeted TB preventive treatment in PLHIV in low-to-moderate TB burden settings where HAART is routinely provided to all PLHIV. The implementation of this algorithm will avoid unnecessary exposure of low-risk patients to drug toxicity and simultaneously, reduce the burden of universal treatment on the healthcare system.     

Cost of Treatment in a US Commercially Insured,HIV-1–Infected Population

Objective

Recent treatment patterns and cost data associated with HIV in the United States are limited. This study assessed first-line persistence and healthcare costs of HIV-1 in patients by treatment line and CD4 cell count.

Methods

MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters Database (2007–2011) and Lab Database (2007–2010) were used to construct two HIV-1 cohorts: 1) newly treated HIV-1–infected patients with ≥6 months'' continuous enrollment prior to first third-agent drug claim (Newly Treated Cohort) and 2) CD4 cell count test results (CD4 Measurements Cohort). All patients were ≥18 years old and without hepatitis co-infection. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to measure treatment switch rates. Generalized linear models (gamma distribution, log link) were used to compare healthcare costs by treatment line and CD4 cell count controlling for potential confounders.

Results

Newly treated patients (n = 8,617) had mean age of 41, 82% were male, and 20% had experienced AIDS-defining events at baseline. Over 20% of newly treated patients switched initial treatment regimen within 2 years. Average unadjusted (and covariate-adjusted) total healthcare cost/year was $33,674 ($28,861) for first-line, $39,191 ($35,805) for second-line, and $39,882 ($40,804) for third-line treatment. Covariate-adjusted costs of care on second- and third-line treatments were significantly more expensive than first-line treatment (24% [p<0.001] and 41% [p = 0.006] higher, respectively). The CD4 Measurements Cohort included 803 CD4 measurements (mean age 49, 76% male, 8% experienced an AIDS-defining event). Costs associated with CD4 measurements <100 cells/µL were 92% higher than those with >350 cells/µL (p<0.001). For higher CD4 cell counts, the majority of expenditures were for antiretrovirals (64% of total for CD4 >350 cells/µL).

Conclusions

Despite modern advances in antiretroviral therapy and medical care, direct medical costs of HIV-1–infected patients increase after treatment switch and with lower CD4 counts, consistent with previous costing studies.