Scaling between macro- to microscale climatic data reveals strong phylogenetic inertia in niche evolution in plethodontid salamanders

Macroclimatic niches are indirect and potentially inadequate predictors of the realized environmental conditions that many species experience. Consequently, analyses of niche evolution based on macroclimatic data alone may incompletely represent the evolutionary dynamics of species niches. Yet, understanding how an organisms’ climatic (Grinnellian) niche responds to changing macroclimatic conditions is of vital importance for predicting their potential response to global change. In this study, we integrate microclimatic and macroclimatic data across 26 species of plethodontid salamanders to portray the relationship between microclimatic niche evolution in response to changing macroclimate. We demonstrate stronger phylogenetic signal in microclimatic niche variables than at the macroclimatic scale. Even so, we find that the microclimatic niche tracks climatic changes at the macroscale, but with a phylogenetic lag at million-year timescales. We hypothesize that behavioral tracking of the microclimatic niche over space and phenology generates the lag: salamanders preferentially select microclimates similar to their ancestral conditions rather than adapting with changes in physiology. We demonstrate that macroclimatic variables are weak predictors of niche evolution and that incorporating spatial scale into analyses of niche evolution is critical for predicting responses to climate change.     

CLIMBER: Climatic niche characteristics of the butterflies in Europe

Detailed information on species’ ecological niche characteristics that can be related to declines and extinctions is indispensable for a better understanding of the relationship between the occurrence and performance of wild species and their environment and, moreover, for an improved assessment of the impacts of global change. Knowledge on species characteristics such as habitat requirements is already available in the ecological literature for butterflies, but information about their climatic requirements is still lacking. Here we present a unique dataset on the climatic niche characteristics of 397 European butterflies representing 91% of the European species (see Appendix). These characteristics were obtained by combining detailed information on butterfly distributions in Europe (which also led to the ‘Distribution Atlas of Butterflies in Europe’) and the corresponding climatic conditions. The presented dataset comprises information for the position and breadth of the following climatic niche characteristics: mean annual temperature, range in annual temperature, growing degree days, annual precipitation sum, range in annual precipitation and soil water content. The climatic niche position is indicated by the median and mean value for each climate variable across a species’ range, accompanied by the 95% confidence interval for the mean and the number of grid cells used for calculations. Climatic niche breadth is indicated by the standard deviation and the minimum and maximum values for each climatic variable across a species’ range. Database compilation was based on high quality standards and the data are ready to use for a broad range of applications.It is already evident that the information provided in this dataset is of great relevance for basic and applied ecology. Based on the species temperature index (STI, i.e. the mean temperature value per species), the community temperature index (CTI, i.e. the average STI value across the species in a community) was recently adopted as an indicator of climate change impact on biodiversity by the pan-European framework supporting the Convention on Biological Diversity (Streamlining European Biodiversity Indicators 2010) and has already been used in several scientific publications. The application potential of this database ranges from theoretical aspects such as assessments of past niche evolution or analyses of trait interdependencies to the very applied aspects of measuring, monitoring and projecting historical, ongoing and potential future responses to climate change using butterflies as an indicator.     

Climatic niche breadth determines the response of bumblebees (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Bombus</Emphasis> spp.) to climate warming in mountain areas of the Northern Iberian Peninsula

Studies examining species range shifts in the face of climate change have consistently found that response patterns are complex and varied, suggesting that ecological traits might be affecting species response. However, knowledge of how the traits of a species determine its response to climate change is still poorly understood. Here we investigate the role of species-specific climate niche breadth in forecasting bumblebee (Bombus spp.) responses to regional climate warming in the Cantabrian Range (north-western Iberian Peninsula). Climate niche breadth was defined using known data for occurrences of specific species at their continental (i.e., European) scale of distribution. For each bumblebee species, climate niche breadth was found to be related to (1) the elevational range shifts of species between their historical (1988–1989) and recent (2007–2009) distribution and (2) the variation in the climatic conditions of the localities they inhabited (i.e., the local climate space) between both study periods. Our results show a strong relationship between climate niche breadth, particularly thermal niche breadth, and the response of bumblebee species to climate warming, but only when this response was determined as variations in local climate space. The main conclusions of our work are thus twofold. First, variations in the climatic conditions underlying range shifts are useful in making accurate assessments of the impact of climate change on species distributions. Second, climate niche breadth is a particularly informative ecological trait for forecasting variations in species responses to climate change.     

Genetic structure and ecological niche segregation of Indian gray mongoose (Urva edwardsii) in Iran

Combining genetic data with ecological niche models is an effective approach for exploring climatic and nonclimatic environmental variables affecting spatial patterns of intraspecific genetic variation. Here, we adopted this combined approach to evaluate genetic structure and ecological niche of the Indian gray mongoose (Urva edwardsii) in Iran, as the most western part of the species range. Using mtDNA, we confirmed the presence of two highly differentiated clades. Then, we incorporated ensemble of small models (ESMs) using climatic and nonclimatic variables with genetic data to assess whether genetic differentiation among clades was coupled with their ecological niche. Climate niche divergence was also examined based on a principal component analysis on climatic factors only. The relative habitat suitability values predicted by the ESMs for both clades revealed their niche separation. Between‐clade climate only niche comparison revealed that climate space occupied by clades is similar to some extent, but the niches that they utilize differ between the distribution ranges of clades. We found that in the absence of evidence for recent genetic exchanges, distribution models suggest the species occurs in different niches and that there are apparent areas of disconnection across the species range. The estimated divergence time between the two Iranian clades (4.9 Mya) coincides with the uplifting of the Zagros Mountains during the Early Pliocene. The Zagros mountain‐building event seems to have prevented the distribution of U. edwardsii populations between the western and eastern parts of the mountains as a result of vicariance events. Our findings indicated that the two U. edwardsii genetic clades in Iran can be considered as two conservation units and can be utilized to develop habitat‐specific and climate change‐integrated management strategies.     

Microhabitat and Climatic Preferences of Protosteloid Amoebae in a Region with a Mediterranean Climate

The role of microhabitat and climate variation in structuring protosteloid amoebae communities has been investigated for the first time in the Mediterranean Basin, a biodiversity hotspot for plants and animals and the largest of the world’s five areas with a Mediterranean climate. Abundance data were obtained from natural substrates collected in 13 localities from central Spain, and a total of 1,504 colonies and 18 species were recorded. For this new area, it has been carried out an optimization of the culturing effort based on rarefaction analyses, thus making possible to adapt the protocol to the objectives in future research. Canonical correspondence analysis and generalized linear models showed that microhabitat type was the most important factor for differentiating the niches of the species studied, but climatic variables, especially minimum temperature of the coldest month, precipitation seasonality, and temperature range, had secondary but also important effects. Bark inhabitants tend to be more abundant in localities with high temperature range and low annual precipitation. Aerial litter was the microhabitat with the highest species richness, abundance, and evenness. Species typical of this microhabitat are more abundant when there is high precipitation, low temperature of the warmest month, and low minimum temperature of the coldest month.     

Quantifying the climatic niche of symbiont partners in a lichen symbiosis indicates mutualist‐mediated niche expansions

The large distributional areas and ecological niches of many lichenized fungi may in part be due to the plasticity in interactions between the fungus (mycobiont) and its algal or cyanobacterial partners (photobionts). On the one hand, broad‐scale phylogenetic analyses show that partner compatibility in lichens is rather constrained and shaped by reciprocal selection pressures and codiversification independent of ecological drivers. On the other hand, sub‐species‐level associations among lichen symbionts appear to be environmentally structured rather than phylogenetically constrained. In particular, switching between photobiont ecotypes with distinct environmental preferences has been hypothesized as an adaptive strategy for lichen‐forming fungi to broaden their ecological niche. The extent and direction of photobiont‐mediated range expansions in lichens, however, have not been examined comprehensively at a broad geographic scale. Here we investigate the population genetic structure of Lasallia pustulata symbionts at sub‐species‐level resolution across the mycobiont's Europe‐wide range, using fungal MCM7 and algal ITS rDNA sequence markers. We show that variance in occurrence probabilities in the geographic distribution of genetic diversity in mycobiont‐photobiont interactions is closely related to changes in climatic niches. Quantification of niche extent and overlap based on species distribution modeling and construction of Hutchinsonian climatic hypervolumes revealed that combinations of fungal–algal interactions change at the sub‐species level along latitudinal temperature gradients and in Mediterranean climate zones. Our study provides evidence for symbiont‐mediated niche expansion in lichens. We discuss our results in the light of symbiont polymorphism and partner switching as potential mechanisms of environmental adaptation and niche evolution in mutualisms.     

The combined role of dispersal and niche evolution in the diversification of Neotropical lizards

Ecological requirements and environmental conditions can influence diversification across temporal and spatial scales. Understanding the role of ecological niche evolution under phylogenetic contexts provides insights on speciation mechanisms and possible responses to future climatic change. Large‐scale phyloclimatic studies on the megadiverse Neotropics, where biomes with contrasting vegetation types occur in narrow contact, are rare. We integrate ecological and biogeographic data with phylogenetic comparative methods, to investigate the relative roles of biogeographic events and niche divergence and conservatism on the diversification of the lizard genus Kentropyx Spix, 1825 (Squamata: Teiidae), distributed in South American rainforests and savannas. Using five molecular markers, we estimated a dated species tree, which recovered three clades coincident with previously proposed species groups diverging during the mid‐Miocene. Biogeography reconstruction indicates a role of successive dispersal events from an ancestral range in the Brazilian Shield and western Amazonia. Ancestral reconstruction of climatic tolerances and niche overlap metrics indicates a trend of conservatism during the diversification of groups from the Amazon Basin and Guiana Shield, and a strong signal of niche divergence in the Brazilian Shield savannas. Our results suggest that climatic‐driven divergence at dynamic forest‐savanna borders might have resulted in adaptation to new environmental niches, promoting habitat shifts and shaping speciation patterns of Neotropical lizards. Dispersal and ecological divergence could have a more important role in Neotropical diversification than previously thought.     

Integrating mechanistic and empirical model projections to assess climate impacts on tree species distributions in northwestern North America

Empirical and mechanistic models have both been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on species distributions, and each modeling approach has its strengths and weaknesses. Here, we demonstrate an approach to projecting climate‐driven changes in species distributions that draws on both empirical and mechanistic models. We combined projections from a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) that simulates the distributions of biomes based on basic plant functional types with projections from empirical climatic niche models for six tree species in northwestern North America. These integrated model outputs incorporate important biological processes, such as competition, physiological responses of plants to changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, and fire, as well as what are likely to be species‐specific climatic constraints. We compared the integrated projections to projections from the empirical climatic niche models alone. Overall, our integrated model outputs projected a greater climate‐driven loss of potentially suitable environmental space than did the empirical climatic niche model outputs alone for the majority of modeled species. Our results also show that refining species distributions with DGVM outputs had large effects on the geographic locations of suitable habitat. We demonstrate one approach to integrating the outputs of mechanistic and empirical niche models to produce bioclimatic projections. But perhaps more importantly, our study reveals the potential for empirical climatic niche models to over‐predict suitable environmental space under future climatic conditions.     

Altitude‐mediated soil properties,not geography or climatic distance,explain the distribution of a tropical endemic herb

Understanding the ecological processes that govern species'' range margins is a fundamental question in ecology with practical implications in conservation biology. The center‐periphery hypothesis predicts that organisms have higher abundance at the center of their geographic range. However, most tests of this hypothesis often used raster data, assuming that climatic conditions are consistent across one square km. This assumption is not always justified, particularly for mountainous species for which climatic conditions can vary widely across a small spatial scale. Previous studies rarely evenly sample occurrence data across the species'' distribution. In this study, we sampled an endemic perennial herb, Thunbergia atacorensis (Acanthanceae), throughout its range in West Africa using 54 plots and collected data on (a)biotic variables, the species density, leaf mass per area, and basal diameter. We built a structural equation model to test the direct and indirect effects of distance from geographic and climatic niche centers, and altitude on Thunbergia density as mediated by abiotic and biotic factors, population demographic structure, and individual size. Contrary to the prediction of the center‐periphery hypothesis, we found no significant effect of distance from geographic or climatic niche centers on plant density. This indicates that even the climatic center does not necessarily have optimal ecological conditions. In contrast, plant density varied with altitudinal gradient, but this was mediated by the effect of soil nitrogen and potassium which had positive effect on plant size. Surprisingly, we found no direct or mediating effect of interspecific competition on plant density. Altogether, our results highlight the role of geography, climatic, and ecological mismatch in predicting species distribution. Our study highlights that where altitudinal gradient is strong local‐scale heterogeneity in abiotic factors can play important role in shaping species range limits.     

Conservatism of ecological niche characteristics in North American plant species over the Pleistocene-to-Recent transition

Aim  To provide a test of the conservatism of a species' niche over the last 20,000 years by tracking the distribution of eight pollen taxa relative to climate type as they migrated across eastern North America following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).
Location  North America.
Methods  We drew taxon occurrence data from the North American pollen records in the Global Pollen Database, representing eight pollen types – all taxa for which ≥5 distinct geographic occurrences were available in both the present day and at the LGM (21,000 years ago ± 3000 years). These data were incorporated into ecological niche models based on present-day and LGM climatological summaries available from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to produce predicted potential geographic distributions for each species at present and at the LGM. The output for each time period was projected onto the 'other' time period, and tested using independent known occurrence information from that period.
Results  The result of our analyses was that all species tested showed general conservatism in ecological characteristics over the climate changes associated with the Pleistocene-to-Recent transition.
Main conclusions  This analysis constitutes a further demonstration of general and pervasive conservatism in ecological niche characteristics over moderate periods of time despite profound changes in climate and environmental conditions. As such, our results reinforce the application of ecological niche modelling techniques to the reconstruction of Pleistocene biodiversity distribution patterns, and to project the future potential distribution range of species in the face of global-scale climatic changes.     

Do geographic distribution,niche property and life form explain plants' vulnerability to global change?

We modelled the future distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa distributed among seven life forms, including new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies by: (i) using only endemic species as a way to capture the full realized niche of species, (ii) considering the direct impact of human pressure on landscape and biodiversity jointly with climate, and (iii) taking species' migration into account. Our analysis shows important promises for predicting the impacts of climate change in conjunction with land transformation. We have shown that the endemic flora of Southern Africa on average decreases with 41% in species richness among habitats and with 39% on species distribution range for the most optimistic scenario. We also compared the patterns of species' sensitivity with global change across life forms, using ecological and geographic characteristics of species. We demonstrate here that species and life form vulnerability to global changes can be partly explained according to species' (i) geographical distribution along climatic and biogeographic gradients, like climate anomalies, (ii) niche breadth or (iii) proximity to barrier preventing migration. Our results confirm that the sensitivity of a given species to global environmental changes depends upon its geographical distribution and ecological proprieties, and makes it possible to estimate a priori its potential sensitivity to these changes.     

Why Do Cryptic Species Tend Not to Co-Occur? A Case Study on Two Cryptic Pairs of Butterflies

As cryptic diversity is being discovered, mostly thanks to advances in molecular techniques, it is becoming evident that many of these taxa display parapatric distributions in mainland and that they rarely coexist on islands. Genetic landscapes, haplotype networks and ecological niche modeling analyses were performed for two pairs of non-sister cryptic butterfly species, Aricia agestis-A. cramera and Polyommatus icarus—P. celina (Lycaenidae), to specifically assess non-coexistence on western Mediterranean islands, and to test potential causes producing such chequered distribution patterns. We show that the morphologically and ecologically equivalent pairs of species do not coexist on any of the studied islands, although nearly all islands are colonized by one of them. According to our models, the cryptic pairs displayed marked climatic preferences and ‘precipitation during the driest quarter’ was recovered as the most important climatic determinant. However, neither dispersal capacity, nor climatic or ecological factors fully explain the observed distributions across particular sea straits, and the existence of species interactions resulting in mutual exclusion is suggested as a necessary hypothesis. Given that the studied species are habitat generalists, feeding on virtually unlimited resources, we propose that reproductive interference, together with climatic preferences, sustain density-dependent mechanisms like “founder takes all” and impede coexistence on islands. Chequered distributions among cryptic taxa, both sister and non-sister, are common in butterflies, suggesting that the phenomenon revealed here could be important in determining biodiversity patterns.     

Insights from ecological niche modeling on the taxonomic distinction and niche differentiation between the black‐spotted and red‐spotted tokay geckoes (Gekko gecko)

The black‐spotted tokay and the red‐spotted tokay are morphologically distinct and have largely allopatric distributions. The black‐spotted tokay is characterized by a small body size and dark skin with sundry spots, while the red‐spotted tokay has a relatively large body size and red spots. Based on morphological, karyotypic, genetic, and distribution differences, recent studies suggested their species status; however, their classifications remain controversial, and additional data such as ecological niches are necessary to establish firm hypotheses regarding their taxonomic status. We reconstructed their ecological niches models using climatic and geographic data. We then performed niche similarity tests (niche identity and background tests) and point‐based analyses to explore whether ecological differentiation has occurred, and whether such differences are sufficient to explain the maintenance of their separate segments of environmental ranges. We found that both niche models of the black‐ and the red‐spotted tokay had a good fit and a robust performance, as indicated by the high area under the curve (AUC) values (“black” = 0.982, SD = ± 0.002, “red” = 0.966 ± 0.02). Significant ecological differentiation across the entire geographic range was found, indicating that the involvement of ecological differentiation is important for species differentiation. Divergence along the environmental axes is highly associated with climatic conditions, with isothermality being important for the “black” form, while temperature seasonality, precipitation of warmest quarter, and annual temperature range together being important for the “red” form. These factors are likely important factors in niche differentiation between the two forms, which result in morphological replacement. Overall, beside morphological and genetic differentiation information, our results contribute to additional insights into taxonomic distinction and niche differentiation between the black‐ and the red‐spotted tokay.     

Adding more ecology into species delimitation: ecological niche models and phylogeography help define cryptic species in the black salamander (Aneides flavipunctatus)

Being able to efficiently and accurately delimit species is one of the most basic and important aspects of systematics because species are the fundamental unit of analysis in biogeography, ecology, and conservation. We present a rationale and approach for combining ecological niche modeling, spatially explicit analyses of environmental data, and phylogenetics in species delimitation, and we use our methodology in an empirical example focusing on Aneides flavipunctatus, the black salamander (Caudata: Plethodontidae), in California. We assess the relationships between genetic, environmental, and geographic distance among populations. We use 11 climatic variables and point locality data from public databases to create ecological niche models. The suitability of potential contact zones between parapatric lineages is also assessed using the data from ecological niche modeling. Phylogenetic analyses of portions of the mitochondrial genome reveal morphologically cryptic mitochondrial lineages in this species. In addition, we find that patterns of genetic divergence are strongly associated with divergence in the ecological niche. Our work demonstrates the ease and utility of using spatial analyses of environmental data and phylogenetics in species delimitation, especially for groups displaying fine-scaled endemism and cryptic species.     

Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change

Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth’s surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, “analog-based” velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961–2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating lower and upper bounds on migration rates, can inform conservation of species and locally-adapted populations, respectively, and in combination with backward velocity, a function of distance to a source of colonizers adapted to a site’s future climate, can facilitate conservation of diversity at multiple scales in the face of climate change.     

Developmental life history is associated with variation in rates of climatic niche evolution in a salamander adaptive radiation*

Rates of climatic niche evolution vary widely across the tree of life and are strongly associated with rates of diversification among clades. However, why the climatic niche evolves more rapidly in some clades than others remains unclear. Variation in life history traits often plays a key role in determining the environmental conditions under which species can survive, and therefore, could impact the rate at which lineages can expand in available climatic niche space. Here, we explore the relationships among life-history variation, climatic niche breadth, and rates of climatic niche evolution. We reconstruct a phylogeny for the genus Desmognathus, an adaptive radiation of salamanders distributed across eastern North America, based on nuclear and mitochondrial genes. Using this phylogeny, we estimate rates of climatic niche evolution for species with long, short, and no aquatic larval stage. Rates of climatic niche evolution are unrelated to the mean climatic niche breadth of species with different life histories. Instead, we find that the evolution of a short larval period promotes greater exploration of climatic space, leading to increased rates of climatic niche evolution across species having this trait. We propose that morphological and physiological differences associated with variation in larval stage length underlie the heterogeneous ability of lineages to explore climatic niche space. Rapid rates of climatic niche evolution among species with short larval periods were an important dimension of the clade's adaptive radiation and likely contributed to the rapid rate of lineage accumulation following the evolution of an aquatic life history in this clade. Our results show how variation in a key life-history trait can constrain or promote divergence of the climatic niche, leading to variation in rates of climatic niche evolution among species.     

Population demography influences climatic niche evolution: evidence from diploid American Hordeum species (Poaceae)

In this study, we explore the interplay of population demography with the evolution of ecological niches during or after speciation in Hordeum. While large populations maintain a high level of standing genetic diversity, gene flow and recombination buffers against fast alterations in ecological adaptation. Small populations harbour lower allele diversity but can more easily shift to new niches if they initially survive under changed conditions. Thus, large populations should be more conservative regarding niche changes in comparison to small populations. We used environmental niche modelling together with phylogenetic, phylogeographic and population genetic analyses to infer the correlation of population demography with changes in ecological niche dimensions in 12 diploid Hordeum species from the New World, forming four monophyletic groups. Our analyses found both shifts and conservatism in distinct niche dimensions within and among clades. Speciation due to vicariance resulted in three species with no pronounced climate niche differences, while species originating due to long‐distance dispersals or otherwise encountering genetic bottlenecks mostly revealed climate niche shifts. Niche convergence among clades indicates a niche‐filling pattern during the last 2 million years in South American Hordeum. We provide evidence that species, which did not encounter population reductions mainly showed ecoclimatic niche conservatism, while major niche shifts occurred in species which have undergone population bottlenecks. Our data allow the conclusion that population demography influences adaptation and niche shifts or conservatism in South American Hordeum species.     

Diversification in North American arid lands: Niche conservatism, divergence and expansion of habitat explain speciation in the genus Ephedra

A lineage of 12 arid land shrubby species in the gymnosperm genus Ephedra (Gnetales) from North America is used to evaluate the influence of climate on speciation. With a long evolutionary history, and a well documented fossil record this lineage is an ideal model for understanding the process of speciation under a niche conservatism scenario. Using seven DNA molecular markers, Bayesian inference is carried out to uncover sister species and to estimate time of divergence of the lineages. Ecological niche models are generated for four parapatric and sympatric sister species and two analyses of niche evolution are performed, one based on ecological niche models and another using raw data and multivariate analysis. As previous analyses suggest, the diversification of North America Ephedra species may be the result of a recent secondary radiation. Both parapatric and sympatric species diverged mostly in a scenario of climatic niche conservatism. However, we also found strong evidence for niche divergence for one of the sister species pairs (E. californica-E. trifurca). Moreover, the multivariate analysis found environmental differences for some variables between sister species. The estimated divergence time of three pairs of sister species distributed in southwestern North America (E. cutleri-E. aspera, E. californica-E. trifurca and E. torreyana-E. viridis) is inferred to have occurred in the Late Miocene to Pliocene and for the sister species pair E. antisyphilitica-E. coryi distributed in the southern United States and northeastern Mexico, it was inferred from the Pliocene to Pleistocene. The orogenetic and climatic changes documented for these regions related to expansion of arid lands, may have contributed to the diversification in North American Ephedra, rather than adaptations to new climatic conditions.     

Ecological Niche Transferability Using Invasive Species as a Case Study

Species distribution modeling is widely applied to predict invasive species distributions and species range shifts under climate change. Accurate predictions depend upon meeting the assumption that ecological niches are conserved, i.e., spatially or temporally transferable. Here we present a multi-taxon comparative analysis of niche conservatism using biological invasion events well documented in natural history museum collections. Our goal is to assess spatial transferability of the climatic niche of a range of noxious terrestrial invasive species using two complementary approaches. First we compare species’ native versus invasive ranges in environmental space using two distinct methods, Principal Components Analysis and Mahalanobis distance. Second we compare species’ native versus invaded ranges in geographic space as estimated using the species distribution modeling technique Maxent and the comparative index Hellinger’s I. We find that species exhibit a range of responses, from almost complete transferability, in which the invaded niches completely overlap with the native niches, to a complete dissociation between native and invaded ranges. Intermediate responses included expansion of dimension attributable to either temperature or precipitation derived variables, as well as niche expansion in multiple dimensions. We conclude that the ecological niche in the native range is generally a poor predictor of invaded range and, by analogy, the ecological niche may be a poor predictor of range shifts under climate change. We suggest that assessing dimensions of niche transferability prior to standard species distribution modeling may improve the understanding of species’ dynamics in the invaded range.     

Effect of climate change in lizards of the genus Xenosaurus (Xenosauridae) based on projected changes in climatic suitability and climatic niche conservatism

Accelerated climate change represents a major threat to the health of the planet's biodiversity. Particularly, lizards of the genus Xenosaurus might be negatively affected by this phenomenon because several of its species have restricted distributions, low vagility, and preference for low temperatures. No study, however, has examined the climatic niche of the species of this genus and how their distribution might be influenced by different climate change scenarios. In this project, we used a maximum entropy approach to model the climatic niche of 10 species of the genus Xenosaurus under present and future suitable habitat, considering a climatic niche conservatism context. Therefore, we performed a similarity analysis of the climatic niche between each species of the genus Xenosaurus. Our results suggest that a substantial decrease in suitable habitat for all species will occur by 2070. Among the most affected species, X. tzacualtipantecus will not have suitable conditions according to its climatic niche requirements and X. phalaroanthereon will lose 85.75% of its current suitable area. On the other hand, we found low values of conservatism of the climatic niche among species. Given the limited capacity of dispersion and the habitat specificity of these lizards, it seems unlikely that fast changes would occur in the distribution of these species facing climate change. The low conservatism in climatic niche we found in Xenosaurus suggests that these species might have the capacity to adapt to the new environmental conditions originated by climate change.