Association of age with mortality and virological and immunological response to antiretroviral therapy in rural South African adults

Objective

To assess whether treatment outcomes vary with age for adults receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in a large rural HIV treatment cohort.

Design

Retrospective cohort analysis using data from a public HIV Treatment & Care Programme.

Methods

Adults initiating ART 1^st August 2004 - 31^st October 2009 were stratified by age at initiation: young adults (16–24 years) mid-age adults (25–49 years) and older (≥50 years) adults. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to estimate mortality rates and age and person-time stratified Cox regression to determine factors associated with mortality. Changes in CD4 cell counts were quantified using a piecewise linear model based on follow-up CD4 cell counts measured at six-monthly time points.

Results

8846 adults were included, 808 (9.1%) young adults; 7119 (80.5%) mid-age adults and 919 (10.4%) older adults, with 997 deaths over 14,778 person-years of follow-up. Adjusting for baseline characteristics, older adults had 32% excess mortality (p = 0.004) compared to those aged 25–49 years. Overall mortality rates (MR) per 100 person-years were 6.18 (95% CI 4.90–7.78); 6.55 (95% CI 6.11–7.02) and 8.69 (95% CI 7.34–10.28) for young, mid-age and older adults respectively. In the first year on ART, for older compared to both young and mid-aged adults, MR per 100 person-years were significantly higher; 0–3 months (MR: 27.1 vs 17.17 and 21.36) and 3–12 months (MR: 9.5 vs 4.02 and 6.02) respectively. CD4 count reconstitution was lower, despite better virological response in the older adults. There were no significant differences in MR after 1year of ART. Baseline markers of advanced disease were independently associated with very early mortality (0–3 months) whilst immunological and virological responses were associated with mortality after 12months.

Conclusions

Early ART initiation and improving clinical care of older adults are required to reduce high early mortality and enhance immunologic recovery, particularly in the initial phases of ART.     

Patients present earlier and survival has improved, but pre-ART attrition is high in a six-year HIV cohort data from Ethiopia

Background

Previous studies showed higher early mortality rates among patients treated with antiretroviral drugs in settings with limited resources. One of the reasons was late presentation of patients to care. With improved access to HIV services, we expect improvements in disease stage at presentation. Our objective was to assess the effect of improved availability of HIV services on patient presentation to care and subsequent pre-ART and on-ART outcomes.

Methodology and Principal Findings

At Arba Minch Hospital in Ethiopia, we reviewed baseline characteristics and outcomes of 2191 adult HIV patients. Nearly a half were in WHO stage III at presentation. About two-thirds of the patients (1428) started ART. Patients enrolled in the early phase (OR = 4.03, 95% CI 3.07–5.27), men (OR = 1.78, 95%CI 1.47–2.16), and those aged 45 years and above (OR = 2.04, 95%CI 1.48–2.82) were at higher risk of being in advanced clinical stage at presentation. The pre-treatment mortality rate was 13.1 per 100 PYO, ranging from 1.4 in the rapid scale-up phase to 25.9 per 100 PYO in the early phase. A quarter of the patients were lost to follow-up before starting treatment. Being in less advanced stage (HR = 1.9, 95% CI = 1.6, 2.2), being in the recent cohort (HR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.6, 2.6), and rural residence (HR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.5, 2.2) were independent predictors of pre-ART loss to follow-up. Of those who started ART, 13.4% were lost to follow-up and 15.4% died. The survival improved during the study. Patients with advanced disease, men and older people had higher death rates.

Conclusions and Significance

Patients started to present at earlier stages of their illness and death has decreased among adult HIV patients visiting Arba Minch Hospital. However, many patients were lost from pre-treatment follow-up. Early treatment start contributed to improved survival. Both pre-ART and on-ART patient retention mechanisms should be strengthened.     

Gender difference in 2-year mortality and immunological response to ART in an HIV-infected Chinese population, 2006-2008

Background

Since it was initiated in 2002, the China Free Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) Program has been progressing from an emergency response to a standardized treatment and care system. As of December 31, 2009, a total of 81,880 patients in 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and special municipalities received free ART. Gender differences, however, in mortality and immunological response to ART in this cohort have never been described.

Objective

To understand whether women and men who enrolled in the China National Free ART Program responded equally well to the treatment.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of the national free ART databases from June 2006–December 2008 was performed. HIV-infected subjects who were 18 years or older, ART naïve at baseline, and on a 3TC regimen enrolled in the program from June 1 to December 31, 2006, were included in this study, then followed up to 2 years.

Results

Among 3457 enrolled subjects who met the inclusion criteria, 59.2% were male and 40.8% female. The majority of the subjects were 19–44 years old (77%) and married (72%). Over the full 24 months of follow-up, the mortality rate was 19.0% in males and 11.4% in females (p = 0.0014). Males on therapy for 3–24 months were more likely to die than females (HR = 1.46, 95% CI: 1.04–2.06, p = 0.0307) after adjusting for baseline characteristics. Compared to men, women had higher CD4+ counts over time after initiating ART (p<0.0001).

Conclusions

Our study showed that women had an overall lower mortality and higher CD4+ counts than men in response to ART treatment, which may be attributed to adherence, biological factors, social, cultural and economic reasons. Further study is needed to explore these factors that might contribute to the gender differences in mortality and immunological response to ART.     

Incidence and predictors of immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome in a rural area of Mozambique

Background

There is limited data on the epidemiology of Immune Reconstitution Inflammatory Syndrome (IRIS) in rural sub-Saharan Africa. A prospective observational cohort study was conducted to assess the incidence, clinical characteristics, outcome and predictors of IRIS in rural Mozambique.

Methods

One hundred and thirty-six consecutive antiretroviral treatment (ART)-naïve HIV-1-infected patients initiating ART at the Manhiça district hospital were prospectively followed for development of IRIS over 16 months. Survival analysis by Cox regression was performed to identify pre-ART predictors of IRIS development.

Results

Thirty-six patients developed IRIS [26.5%, incidence rate 3.1 cases/100 persons-month of ART (95% CI 2.2–4.3)]. Median time to IRIS onset was 62 days from ART initiation (IQR 35.5–93.5). Twenty-five cases (69.4%) were “unmasking”, 10 (27.8%) were “paradoxical”, and 1 (2.8%) developed a paradoxical worsening followed by the unmasking of another condition. Systemic OI (OI-IRIS) accounted for 47% (17/36) of IRIS cases, predominantly of KS (8 cases) and TB (6 cases) IRIS. Mucocutaneous IRIS manifestations (MC-IRIS) accounted for 53% (19/36) of IRIS events, mostly tinea (9 cases) and herpes simplex infection (3 cases). Multivariate analysis identified two independent predictors of IRIS development: pre-ART CD4 count <50 cells/µl (HR 2.3, 95% CI 1.19–4.44, p = 0.01) and body mass index (BMI) <18.5 (HR 2.15, 95% CI 1.07–4.3, p = 0.03). The pre-cART proportion of activated T-cells, as well as the immunologic and virologic response to ART were not associated with IRIS development. All patients continued on ART, 7 (19.4%) required hospitalization and there were 3 deaths (8.3%) attributable to IRIS.

Conclusions

IRIS is common in patients initiating ART in rural Mozambique. Pre-ART CD4 counts and BMI can easily be assessed at ART initiation in rural sub-Saharan Africa to identify patients at high risk of IRIS, for whom close supervision is warranted.     

Unnatural deaths in South African platinum miners, 1992-2008

Background

The mortality rate from unnatural deaths for South Africa is nearly double the world average. Reliable data are limited by inaccurate and incomplete ascertainment of specific causes of unnatural death. This study describes trends in causes of unnatural death between 1992 and 2008 in a cohort of South African miners.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The study used routinely-collected retrospective data with cause of death determined from multiple sources including the mine''s human resources database, medical records, death registration, and autopsy. Cause-specific mortality rates and Poisson regression coefficients were calculated by calendar year and age group. The cohort included 40,043 men. One quarter of all 2937 deaths were from unnatural causes (n = 805). Causes of unnatural deaths were road traffic accidents 38% (109/100,000 py), homicides 30% (88/100,000 py), occupational injuries 17% (50/100,000 py), suicides 8% (24/100,000 py), and other accidents 6% (19/100,000 py). Rates of unnatural deaths declined by 2% (95%CI -4%,-1%) per year over the study period, driven by declining rates of road traffic and other accidents. The rate of occupational injury mortality did not change significantly over time (-2% per year, 95%CI -5%,+2%). Unnatural deaths were less frequent in this cohort of workers than in the South African population (IRR 0.89, 95%CI 0.82–0.95), particularly homicides (IRR 0.48, 95%CI 0.42–0.55).

Conclusions/Significance

Unnatural deaths were a common cause of preventable and premature death in this cohort of miners. While unnatural death rates declined between 1992 and 2008, occupational fatalities remained at a high level. Evidence-based prevention strategies to address these avoidable deaths are urgently needed.     

Clinical features and serum biomarkers in HIV immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome after cryptococcal meningitis: a prospective cohort study

Background

Although antiretroviral therapy (ART) improves survival in persons with cryptococcal meningitis (CM) and AIDS, ART frequently elicits HIV immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS), an exaggerated and frequently deadly inflammatory reaction that complicates recovery from immunodeficiency. The pathogenesis of IRIS is poorly understood and prediction of IRIS is not possible.

Methods and Findings

We prospectively followed 101 ART-naïve Ugandans with AIDS and recent CM for one year after initiating ART, and used Luminex multiplex assays to compare serum cytokine levels in participants who did or did not develop IRIS. IRIS occurred in 45% of participants with recent CM on ART, including 30% with central nervous system (CNS) manifestations. The median time to CM-IRIS was 8.8 wk on ART. Overall mortality on ART was 36% with IRIS and 21% without IRIS. CM-IRIS was independently associated with death (HR = 2.3, 95% CI 1.1–5.1, p = 0.04). Patients experiencing subsequent CM-IRIS had 4-fold higher median serum cryptococcal antigen (CRAG) levels pre-ART (p = 0.006). Higher pre-ART levels of interleukin (IL)-4 and IL-17 as well as lower tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α, granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF), granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF), and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) predicted future IRIS in multivariate analyses (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.82). An algorithm based on seven pre-ART serum biomarkers was a robust tool for stratifying high (83%), moderate (48%), and low risk (23%) for IRIS in the cohort. After ART was initiated, increasing levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), D-dimer, IL-6, IL-7, IL-13, G-CSF, or IL-1RA were associated with increasing hazard of IRIS by time-to-event analysis (each p≤0.001). At the time of IRIS onset, multiple proinflammatory cytokine responses were present, including CRP and IL-6. Mortality was predicted by pre-ART increasing IL-17, decreasing GM-CSF, and CRP level >32 mg/l (highest quartile). Pre-ART CRP level >32 mg/l alone was associated with future death (OR = 8.3, 95% CI 2.7–25.6, p<0.001).

Conclusions

Pre-ART increases in Th₁₇ and Th₂ responses (e.g., IL-17, IL-4) and lack of proinflammatory cytokine responses (e.g., TNF-α, G-CSF, GM-CSF, VEGF) predispose individuals to subsequent IRIS, perhaps as biomarkers of immune dysfunction and poor initial clearance of CRAG. Although requiring validation, these biomarkers might be an objective tool to stratify the risk of CM-IRIS and death, and could be used clinically to guide when to start ART or use prophylactic interventions. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Retention in HIV care between testing and treatment in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review

Background

Improving the outcomes of HIV/AIDS treatment programs in resource-limited settings requires successful linkage of patients testing positive for HIV to pre–antiretroviral therapy (ART) care and retention in pre-ART care until ART initiation. We conducted a systematic review of pre-ART retention in care in Africa.

Methods and Findings

We searched PubMed, ISI Web of Knowledge, conference abstracts, and reference lists for reports on the proportion of adult patients retained between any two points between testing positive for HIV and initiating ART in sub-Saharan African HIV/AIDS care programs. Results were categorized as Stage 1 (from HIV testing to receipt of CD4 count results or clinical staging), Stage 2 (from staging to ART eligibility), or Stage 3 (from ART eligibility to ART initiation). Medians (ranges) were reported for the proportions of patients retained in each stage. We identified 28 eligible studies. The median proportion retained in Stage 1 was 59% (35%–88%); Stage 2, 46% (31%–95%); and Stage 3, 68% (14%–84%). Most studies reported on only one stage; none followed a cohort of patients through all three stages. Enrollment criteria, terminology, end points, follow-up, and outcomes varied widely and were often poorly defined, making aggregation of results difficult. Synthesis of findings from multiple studies suggests that fewer than one-third of patients testing positive for HIV and not yet eligible for ART when diagnosed are retained continuously in care, though this estimate should be regarded with caution because of review limitations.

Conclusions

Studies of retention in pre-ART care report substantial loss of patients at every step, starting with patients who do not return for their initial CD4 count results and ending with those who do not initiate ART despite eligibility. Better health information systems that allow patients to be tracked between service delivery points are needed to properly evaluate pre-ART loss to care, and researchers should attempt to standardize the terminology, definitions, and time periods reported. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

HIV incidence and risk factors for acquisition in HIV discordant couples in Masaka, Uganda: an HIV vaccine preparedness study

Objectives

To determine the incidence of and risk factors for HIV acquisition in a cohort of HIV-uninfected partners from HIV discordant couples in Masaka, Uganda, and to establish its suitability for HIV vaccine trials.

Methods

HIV-uninfected adults living in HIV discordant couple relationships were enrolled and followed for 2 years. Interviews, medical investigations, HIV counseling and testing, syphilis and urine pregnancy (women) tests were performed at quarterly visits. Sexual risk behaviour data were collected every 6 months.

Results

495 participants were enrolled, of whom 34 seroconverted during 786.6 person-years of observation (PYO). The overall HIV incidence rate [95% confidence interval (CI)] was 4.3 [3.1–6]; and 4.3 [2.8–6.4] and 4.4 [2.5–8] per 100 PYO in men and women respectively. Independent baseline predictors for HIV acquisition were young age [18–24 (aRR = 4.1, 95% CI 1.6–10.8) and 25–34 (aRR = 2.7, 95% CI 1.2–5.8) years]; alcohol use (aRR = 2.6, 95% CI 1.1–6); and reported genital discharge (aRR = 3.4, 95% CI 1.6–7.2) in the past year. Condom use frequency in the year preceding enrolment was predictive of a reduced risk of HIV acquisition [sometimes (aRR = 0.4, 95% CI 0.2–0.8); always (aRR = 0.1, 95% CI 0.02–0.9)]. In the follow-up risk analysis, young age [18–24 (aRR = 6.2, 95% CI 2.2–17.3) and 25-34 (aRR = 2.3, 95% CI 1.1–5.0) years], reported genital discharge (aRR = 2.5, 95% CI 1.1–5.5), serological syphilis (aRR 3.2, 95% CI 1.3–7.7) and the partner being ART naïve (aRR = 4.8, 95% CI 1.4–16.0) were independently associated with HIV acquisition. There were no seroconversions among participants who reported consistent condom use during the study.

Conclusions

The study has identified important risk factors for HIV acquisition among HIV discordant couples. HIV-uninfected partners in discordant couples may be a suitable population for HIV vaccine efficacy trials. However, recent confirmation that ART reduces heterosexual HIV transmission may make it unfeasible to conduct HIV prevention trials in this population.     

Linkage to HIV care and antiretroviral therapy in Cape Town, South Africa

Background

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been scaled-up rapidly in Africa. Programme reports typically focus on loss to follow-up and mortality among patients receiving ART. However, little is known about linkage and retention in care of individuals prior to starting ART.

Methodology

Data on adult residents from a periurban community in Cape Town were collected at a primary care clinic and hospital. HIV testing registers, CD4 count results provided by the National Health Laboratory System and ART registers were linked. A random sample (n = 885) was drawn from adults testing HIV positive through antenatal care, sexual transmitted disease and voluntary testing and counseling services between January 2004 and March 2009. All adults (n = 103) testing HIV positive through TB services during the same time period were also included in the study. Linkage to HIV care was defined as attending for a CD4 count measurement within 6 months of HIV diagnosis. Linkage to ART care was defined as initiating ART within 6 months of HIV diagnosis in individuals with a CD4 count ≤200 cells/µl taken within 6 months of HIV diagnosis.

Findings

Only 62.6% of individuals attended for a CD4 count measurement within 6 months of testing HIV positive. Individuals testing through sexually transmitted infection services had the best (84.1%) and individuals testing on their own initiative (53.5%) the worst linkage to HIV care. One third of individuals with timely CD4 counts were eligible for ART and 66.7% of those were successfully linked to ART care. Linkage to ART care was highest among antenatal care clients. Among individuals not yet eligible for ART only 46.3% had a repeat CD4 count. Linkage to HIV care improved in patients tested in more recent calendar period.

Conclusion

Linkage to HIV and ART care was low in this poor peri-urban community despite free services available within close proximity. More efforts are needed to link VCT scale-up to subsequent care.     

Ten years of surveillance for invasive Streptococcus pneumoniae during the era of antiretroviral scale-up and cotrimoxazole prophylaxis in Malawi

Objective

To document trends in invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in a central hospital in Malawi during the period of national scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and cotrimoxazole prophylaxis.

Methods

Between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2009 almost 100,000 blood cultures and 40,000 cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) cultures were obtained from adults and children admitted to the Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi with suspected severe bacterial infection.

Results

4,445 pneumococcal isolates were obtained over the 10 year period. 1,837 were from children: 885 (19.9%) from blood and 952 (21.4%) from CSF. 2,608 were from adults: 1,813 (40.8%) from blood and 795 (17.9%) from CSF. At the start of the surveillance period cotrimoxazole resistance was 73.8% and at the end was 92.6%. Multidrug resistance (MDR) was present in almost one third of isolates and was constant over time. Free ART was introduced in Malawi in 2004. From 2005 onwards there was a decline in invasive pneumococcal infections with a negative correlation between ART scale-up and the decline in IPD (Pearson''s correlation r = −0.91; p<0.001).

Conclusion

During 2004–2009, national ART scale-up in Malawi was associated with a downward trend in IPD at QECH. The introduction of cotrimoxazole prophylaxis in HIV-infected groups has not coincided with a further increase in pneumococcal cotrimoxazole or multidrug resistance. These data highlight the importance of surveillance for high disease burden infections such as IPD in the region, which will be vital for monitoring pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction into national immunisation programmes.     

Presentation and outcome of tuberculous meningitis in a high HIV prevalence setting

Background

Mycobacterium tuberculosis is a common, devastating cause of meningitis in HIV-infected persons. Due to international rollout programs, access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is increasing globally. Starting patients with HIV-associated tuberculous meningitis (TBM) on ART during tuberculosis (TB) treatment may increase survival in these patients. We undertook this study to describe causes of meningitis at a secondary-level hospital in a high HIV/TB co-infection setting and to determine predictors of mortality in patients with TBM.

Methods

A retrospective review of cerebrospinal fluid findings and clinical records over a six-month period (March 2009–August 2009). Definite, probable and possible TBM were diagnosed according to published case definitions.

Results

TBM was diagnosed in 120/211 patients (57%) with meningitis. In 106 HIV-infected patients with TBM, six-month all-cause mortality was lower in those who received antiretroviral therapy (ART) during TB treatment; hazard ratio = 0.30 (95% CI = 0.08–0.82). Factors associated with inpatient mortality in HIV-infected patients were 1) low CD4⁺ count at presentation; adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.4 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.03–1.96) per 50 cells/µL drop in CD4⁺ count and, 2) higher British Medical Research Council TBM disease grade (2 or 3 versus 1); AOR = 4.8 (95% CI = 1.45–15.87).

Interpretation

Starting ART prior to or during TB treatment may be associated with lower mortality in patients with HIV-associated TBM. Advanced HIV and worse stage of TBM disease predict in-hospital mortality in patients presenting with TBM.     

Risk factors associated with increased mortality among HIV infected children initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa

Objective

To identify demographic and clinical risk factors associated with mortality after initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in a cohort of human immunodeficiency (HIV) infected children in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Methods

We performed a retrospective cohort study of 537 children initiating antiretroviral therapy at McCord Hospital in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Data were extracted from electronic medical records and risk factors associated with mortality were assessed using Cox regression analysis.

Results

Overall there were 47 deaths from the cohort of 537 children initiating ART with over 991 child-years of follow-up (median 22 months on ART), yielding a mortality rate of 4.7 deaths per 100 child years on ART. Univariate analysis indicated that mortality was significantly associated with lower weight-for-age Z-score (p<0.0001), chronic diarrhea (p = 0.0002), lower hemoglobin (p = 0.002), age <3 years (p = 0.003), and CD4% <10% (p = 0.005). The final multivariable Cox proportional hazards mortality model found age less than 3 years (p = 0.004), CD4 <10% (p = 0.01), chronic diarrhea (p = 0.03), weight-for-age Z-score (<0.0001) and female gender as a covariate varying with time (p = 0.03) all significantly associated with mortality.

Conclusion

In addition to recognized risk factors such as young age and advanced immunosuppression, we found female gender to be significantly associated with mortality in this pediatric ART cohort. Future studies are needed to determine whether intrinsic biologic differences or socio-cultural factors place female children with HIV at increased risk of death following initiation of ART.     

Initial presentations predict mortality in pulmonary tuberculosis patients--a prospective observational study

Background

Despite effective anti-TB treatments, tuberculosis remains a serious threat to public health and is associated with high mortality. Old age and multiple co-morbidities are known risk factors for death. The association of clinical presentations with mortality in pulmonary tuberculosis patients remains an issue of controversy.

Methods

This prospective observational study enrolled newly diagnosed, culture-proven pulmonary tuberculosis patients from five medical centers and one regional hospital, which were referral hospitals of TB patients. Radiographic findings and clinical symptoms were determined at the time of diagnosis. Patients who died for any reason during the course of anti-TB treatment were defined as mortality cases and death that occurred within 30 days of initiating treatment was defined as early mortality. Clinical factors associated with overall mortality and early mortality were investigated.

Results

A total of 992 patients were enrolled and 195 (19.7%) died. Nearly one-third (62/195, 31.8%) of the deaths occurred before or within 30 days of treatment initiation. Older age (RR = 1.04, 95%CI: 1.03–1.05), malignancy (RR = 2.42, 95%CI: 1.77–3.31), renal insufficiency (RR = 1.77, 95%CI: 1.12–2.80), presence of chronic cough (RR = 0.63, 95%CI: 0.47–0.84), fever (RR = 1.45, 95%CI: 1.09–1.94), and anorexia (RR = 1.49, 95%CI: 1.07–2.06) were independently associated with overall mortality. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated significantly higher mortality in patients present with fever (p<0.001), anorexia (p = 0.005), and without chronic cough (p<0.001). Among patients of mortality, those with respiratory symptoms of chronic cough (RR = 0.56, 95%CI: 0.33–0.98) and dyspnea (HR = 0.51, 95%CI: 0.27–0.98) were less likely to experience early mortality. The radiological features were comparable between survivors and non-survivors.

Conclusions

In addition to demographic characteristics, clinical presentations including the presence of fever, anorexia, and the absence of chronic cough, were also independent predictors for on-treatment mortality in pulmonary tuberculosis patients.     

Plasma HIV Viral Rebound following Protocol-Indicated Cessation of ART Commenced in Primary and Chronic HIV Infection

Objectives

The magnitude of HIV viral rebound following ART cessation has consequences for clinical outcome and onward transmission. We compared plasma viral load (pVL) rebound after stopping ART initiated in primary (PHI) and chronic HIV infection (CHI).

Design

Two populations with protocol-indicated ART cessation from SPARTAC (PHI, n = 182) and SMART (CHI, n = 1450) trials.

Methods

Time for pVL to reach pre-ART levels after stopping ART was assessed in PHI using survival analysis. Differences in pVL between PHI and CHI populations 4 weeks after stopping ART were examined using linear and logistic regression. Differences in pVL slopes up to 48 weeks were examined using linear mixed models and viral burden was estimated through a time-averaged area-under-pVL curve. CHI participants were categorised by nadir CD4 at ART stop.

Results

Of 171 PHI participants, 71 (41.5%) rebounded to pre-ART pVL levels, at a median of 50 (95% CI 48–51) weeks after stopping ART. Four weeks after stopping treatment, although the proportion with pVL≥400 copies/ml was similar (78% PHI versus 79% CHI), levels were 0.45 (95% CI 0.26–0.64) log₁₀ copies/ml lower for PHI versus CHI, and remained lower up to 48 weeks. Lower CD4 nadir in CHI was associated with higher pVL after ART stop. Rebound for CHI participants with CD4 nadir >500 cells/mm³ was comparable to that experienced by PHI participants.

Conclusions

Stopping ART initiated in PHI and CHI was associated with viral rebound to levels conferring increased transmission risk, although the level of rebound was significantly lower and sustained in PHI compared to CHI.     

Five-year prognosis in an incident cohort of people presenting with acute myocardial infarction

Background

Following an AMI, it is important for patients and their physicians to appreciate the subsequent risk of death, and the potential benefits of invasive cardiac procedures and secondary preventive therapy. Studies, to-date, have focused largely on high-risk populations. We wished to determine the risk of death in a population-derived cohort of 2,887 patients after a first acute myocardial infarction (AMI).

Methods

Logistic regression and survival analysis were conducted to investigate the effect of different baseline characteristics, pharmacological therapies and revascularization procedures on coronary heart disease (CHD) and all-cause mortality outcomes.

Results

Within five years 44.4% of patients died (27.1% short-term [<30 days] and 23.7% longer-term [≥30 days]). Percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (Adjusted Hazards Ratio (AHR) = 0.49, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.26–0.93), β-blockers (AHR = 0.58, 95%CI 0.46–0.74) and statins (AHR = 0.60, 95%CI 0.47–0.77) were all associated with significant reductions in longer-term CHD-related mortality. However, not all patients received secondary preventive therapy (8.7%). Diabetes (AHR = 1.83, 95%CI 1.43–2.34), stroke (AHR = 1.73, 95%CI 1.35–2.22), heart failure (AHR = 1.69, 95%CI 1.28–2.22), smoking (AHR = 1.72, 95%CI 1.18–2.51) and obesity (>30 kg/m2; AHR = 1.39, 95%CI 1.01–1.90) increased the risk of longer-term mortality independent of other risk factors.

Conclusions

It is encouraging that the coronary procedure PTCA and pharmacological secondary prevention therapies were found to be strongly associated with an important reduced risk of subsequent death, although not all patients received these interventions. Smoking, being obese and having cardiovascular related disease at baseline were also associated with an increased likelihood of longer-term mortality, independent of other baseline characteristics. Thus, the provision of smoking cessation, advice on diet (for obese patients) and optimal treatment is likely to be crucial for reducing mortality in all patients after AMI.     

Diminishing availability of publicly funded slots for antiretroviral initiation among HIV-infected ART-eligible patients in Uganda

Background

The impact of flat-line funding in the global scale up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV-infected patients in Africa has not yet been well described.

Methods

We evaluated ART-eligible patients and patients starting ART at a prototypical scale up ART clinic in Mbarara, Uganda between April 1, 2009 and May 14, 2010 where four stakeholders sponsor treatment – two PEPFAR implementing organizations, the Ugandan Ministry of Health – Global Fund (MOH-GF) and a private foundation named the Family Treatment Fund (FTF). We assessed temporal trends in the number of eligible patients, the number starting ART and tabulated the distribution of the stakeholders supporting ART initiation by month and quartile of time during this interval. We used survival analyses to assess changes in the rate of ART initiation over calendar time.

Findings

A total of 1309 patients who were eligible for ART made visits over the 14 month period of the study and of these 819 started ART. The median number of ART eligible patients each month was 88 (IQR: 74 to 115). By quartile of calendar time, PEPFAR and MOH sponsored 290, 192, 180, and 49 ART initiations whereas the FTF started 1, 2, 1 and 104 patients respectively. By May of 2010 (the last calendar month of observation) FTF sponsored 88% of all ART initiations. Becoming eligible for ART in the 3^rd (HR = 0.58, 95% 0.45–0.74) and 4^th quartiles (HR = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.36–0.65) was associated with delay in ART initiation compared to the first quartile in multivariable analyses.

Interpretation

During a period of flat line funding from multinational donors for ART programs, reductions in the number of ART initiations by public programs (i.e., PEPFAR and MOH-GF) and delays in ART initiation became apparent at the a large prototypical scale-up ART clinic in Uganda.     

HIV prevalence and impact on renutrition in children hospitalised for severe malnutrition in Niger: an argument for more systematic screening

Background

In developing countries, malnutrition is a contributing factor in over 50% of child deaths. Mortality rates are higher in underweight children, and HIV-infection is known to increase underweight. Our goals were to evaluate the prevalence of HIV among children hospitalised for severe malnutrition (SM) at the Niamey national hospital (Niger), and to compare renutrition and mortality by HIV-status.

Methods

Retrospective study based on all children <5 years hospitalised for SM between January 1^st 2008 and July 1^st 2009. HIV-prevalence was the ratio of HIV+ children on the number of children tested. Duration of renutrition and mortality were described using survival curves.

Results

During the study period, 477 children were hospitalised for SM. HIV testing was accepted in 470 (98.5%), of which 40 were HIV+ (HIV prevalence (95% confidence interval) of 8.6% (6.2–11.5)). Duration of renutrition was longer in HIV+ than HIV− children (mean: 22 vs. 15 days; p = 0.003). During renutrition, 8 (20%) and 61 (14%) HIV+ and HIV− children died, respectively (p = 0.81).

Conclusion

Around 9% of children hospitalised for severe malnutrition were HIV infected, while in Niger HIV prevalence in adults is estimated at 0.8%. This pleads for wider access to HIV testing in this population.     

Gender differences in immune reconstitution: a multicentric cohort analysis in sub-Saharan Africa

Background

In sub-Saharan Africa, men living with HIV often start ART at more advanced stages of disease and have higher early mortality than women. We investigated gender difference in long-term immune reconstitution.

Methods/Principal Findings

Antiretroviral-naïve adults who received ART for at least 9 months in four HIV programs in sub-Saharan Africa were included. Multivariate mixed linear models were used to examine gender differences in immune reconstitution on first line ART.A total of 21,708 patients (68% women) contributed to 61,912 person-years of follow-up. At ART start,. Median CD4 at ART were 149 [IQR 85–206] for women and 125 cells/µL [IQR 63–187] for men. After the first year on ART, immune recovery was higher in women than in men, and gender-based differences increased by 20 CD4 cells/µL per year on average (95% CI 16–23; P<0.001). Up to 6 years after ART start, patients with low initial CD4 levels experienced similar gains compared to patients with high initial levels, including those with CD4>250cells/µL (difference between patients with <50 cells/µL and those with >250 was 284 cells/µL; 95% CI 272–296; LR test for interaction with time p = 0.63). Among patients with initial CD4 count of 150–200 cells/µL, women reached 500 CD4 cells after 2.4 years on ART (95% CI 2.4–2.5) and men after 4.5 years (95% CI 4.1–4.8) of ART use.

Conclusion

Women achieved better long-term immune response to ART, reaching CD4 level associated with lower risks of AIDS related morbidity and mortality quicker than men.