中国温带旱柳物候期对气候变化的时空响应

为了揭示中国温带植物物候随时间变化和植物物候对气候变化响应的空间格局及其生态机制,利用52个站点1986—2005年的旱柳展叶始期、开花始期、果实成熟期、叶变色始期和落叶末期的物候数据,分析其时间序列的线性趋势,并通过建立基于最佳期间日均温的物候时间模型,确定物候发生日期对气温年际变化的响应。在研究的时段内,区域平均旱柳展叶始期、开花始期和果实成熟期的发生日期分别以-4.2 d/10 a、-3.8 d/10 a和-3.3 d/10 a的平均速率显著提前,而区域平均旱柳叶变色始期和落叶末期的发生日期则分别呈不显著推迟和以2.4 d/10 a的平均速率显著推迟的趋势。单站展叶始期、开花始期和果实成熟期发生日期的线性趋势以提前为主,显著提前的站点分别占40%、41%和29%;叶变色始期发生日期呈显著提前和显著推迟趋势的站点数相当,分别占17%和19%;落叶末期发生日期的线性趋势以推迟为主,显著推迟的站点占23%。各站展叶始期、开花始期和果实成熟期发生日期的线性趋势空间序列与相应的最佳期间日均温的线性趋势空间序列之间呈显著负相关,表明一个站点前期气温升高的速率越快,该站这些物候期发生日期提前的速率就越快。在物候期对气温年际变化的响应方面,区域平均春季最佳期间日均温每升高1℃,展叶始期、开花始期和果实成熟期的发生日期分别提前3.08 d、2.83 d和3.54 d;区域平均秋季最佳期间日均温每升高1℃,叶变色始期和落叶末期的发生日期分别推迟1.69 d和2.28 d。单站展叶始期和落叶末期发生日期对气温年际变化的响应表现出在温暖地区的站点比在寒冷地区的站点更为敏感的特点。总体上看,基于日均温的物候时间模型对春、夏季物候期的模拟精度明显高于对秋季物候期的模拟精度。建立了基于最佳期间日均温和日累积降水量的改进秋季物候模型,该模型使旱柳叶变色始期和落叶末期的模拟精度显著提高。由此可见,旱柳叶变色始期和落叶末期的发生日期受到前期气温和降水量的综合影响。     

Coloration and phenology manifest nutrient variability in senesced leaves of 46 temperate deciduous woody species

颜色和物候表明46种温带落叶木本植物衰老叶片的养分变异 不同共生植物的叶片养分含量差异显著,反映了不同的叶片养分利用策略。然而,衰老叶片养分的种间变异及其驱动因素尚不清楚。本研究旨在探讨衰老叶片养分的种间变异及其驱动因素。我们在中国东北的帽儿山森林生态系统研究站测定了46种共存温带落叶木本植物新鲜落叶的碳、氮、磷浓度。 采用随机森林模型量化10个生物因素(菌根类型、固氮类型、生长形态、耐阴性、叶片质地、变色程度、变色类型、叶片变色峰期、落叶峰期和落叶末期)的相对重要性。研究结果表明,落叶氮浓度种间变化为4倍,磷浓度变化达9倍。较高的氮和磷平均浓度(15.38和1.24 mg g⁻¹)表明该森林氮和磷限制较弱。功能群仅对特定养分及其比值有显著影响。磷浓度、氮磷比与外生菌根树种的落叶高峰日和落叶结束日呈负相关。颜色鲜艳的叶片(红色＞棕色＞黄色＞黄绿色＞绿色)倾向于比绿色叶片氮和磷浓度更低而碳氮比和碳磷比较高。随机森林模型表明,秋季叶变色和落叶物候贡献了80%的种间变异解释量。这些结果增加了我们对温带森林木本植物营养策略之衰老叶片养分变异性的理解。     

1962—2007年北京地区木本植物秋季物候动态

根据中国物候观测网络北京观测站点的物候资料及气候资料,分析了1962—2007年北京地区20种主要木本植物秋季物候对气候变化的响应情况.结果表明：1962—2007年间,北京地区秋季物候开始日期基本保持不变,但结束日期有所推迟,推迟的幅度为3.2 d·10 a^-1,导致该区秋季延长了约14 d;研究期间,北京地区木本植物秋季叶始变色期均表现为推迟趋势,平均推迟幅度为4.9 d·10 a^-1;平均最低气温是影响北京地区木本植物叶始变色期早晚的主要气候因子.气候增暖可能是导致近40年北京地区木本植物秋季物候期推迟的主要原因.     

浙江古田山亚热带常绿阔叶林叶衰老物候影响因子研究

该文选取浙江省古田山亚热带常绿阔叶林72种木本植物,探究气候因素、系统发育关系和功能性状对亚热带常绿阔叶林叶衰老物候的影响。结果表明,叶变色期在9—12月,落叶期在10—12月。每月落叶物种数与月均温、月均降水量和月均日照时数没有显著相关性,每月叶变色物种数与月均温和月均日照时数呈弱相关;落叶性对叶变色期和落叶期具有显著影响;植物间系统发育关系对叶变色期和落叶期没有显著影响。因此,生物和非生物因子都会影响常绿阔叶树种的叶衰老,这对于提高秋季物候预测模型具有重要价值。     

光温耦合的中国温带地区旱柳花期时空格局模拟

建立基于温度和光周期驱动的旱柳花期物候模型,旨在寻找影响旱柳花期时空变化的主要气象因子,揭示调控植物开花时间的生态机制,还可为改善柳絮造成的环境污染和花粉过敏等人类健康问题提供参考信息和依据。利用中国气象局农业气象观测网提供的中国温带地区1982-2011年49个站点的旱柳开花始期、盛期和末期观测资料及平行的逐日气象数据,分别对6种模型（简单积温模型、温度三基点模型、八时段温度模型、简单积温-日长模型、温度三基点-日长模型和八时段温度-日长模型）进行了参数率定和假设检验,根据外部检验结果,从中选出针对旱柳3个花期的最优物候模型,进而利用连续地理气象数据和最优物候模型重建了1982-2011年旱柳开花始期、盛期、末期和花期长度的时空变化特征。结果表明：光温耦合的物候模型对旱柳花期的模拟效果和外推效果优于仅基于温度的模型。旱柳开花始期和盛期最优模型均为八时段温度-日长模型,末期为温度三基点-日长模型,说明光周期和温度可能是影响旱柳花期开始、繁盛和结束时间的主要气象因子。同时,优选出的物候模型能够较准确地对不同年份和不同地区的旱柳花期进行模拟及预测。重建的1982-2011年旱柳平均开花始期、盛期和末期日期分别为4月24日、4月28日和5月3日,平均花期长度为9 d,始期、盛期和末期出现日期呈现出从海拔低到高、从南向北、从西向东逐渐推迟的空间格局。1982-2011年旱柳开花始期、盛期和末期在大部分地区呈提前趋势,呈显著提前趋势的面积分别占总面积的49.78%、50.01%和53.40%,花期长度变化差异不显著。     

利用控制实验研究植物物候对气候变化的响应综述

物候是植物在长期适应环境过程中形成的生长发育节点。长时间地面物候观测数据表明,近50年全球乔木、灌木、草本植物的春季物候期受温度升高、降水与辐射变化等影响,以每10年2 d到10 d的速率提前。但因植物物候响应气候因子的机制仍不清楚,导致对未来气候变化情景下的植物物候变化预测存在较大的不确定性。在此背景下,控制实验成为探究气候因子对植物物候影响机制的重要手段。综述了物候控制实验中不同气候因子（温度、水分、光照等）的控制方法。总结了目前为止控制实验在植物物候对气候因子响应方面得到的重要结论,发现植物春季物候期（展叶、开花等）主要受冷激、驱动温度与光周期的影响,秋季物候期（叶变色和落叶）主要受低温、短日照与水分胁迫的影响。提出未来物候控制实验应重点解决木本植物在秋季进入休眠的时间点确定、低温和短日照对木本植物秋季物候的交互作用量化、草本植物春秋季物候的影响因子识别等科学问题。     

温度和光周期协同作用对蒙古栎幼苗春季物候的影响

植物物候对气候变化非常敏感,但关于物候对不同气候因子协同作用的响应机制仍不清楚。为此,以蒙古栎为研究对象,针对蒙古栎物候的主要影响因子温度和光周期,利用大型人工气候室,模拟研究了温度与光周期协同作用（对照、增温1.5℃、增温2.0℃,不同光周期（10 h、14 h、18 h）及其协同作用（对照处理、增温1.5℃×18 h、增温1.5℃×10 h、增温2.0℃×18 h、增温2.0℃×10 h））对蒙古栎春季物候的影响与机制。结果表明：（1）相同水分条件下,不同升温程度对蒙古栎幼苗春季物候的影响不同。温升1.5℃促进蒙古栎幼苗春季物候（芽膨大期、芽开放期、展叶始期和展叶盛期）提前;而温升2.0℃则对不同春季物候的影响不同,表现为促进芽休眠解除和芽开放,但抑制叶片展开。（2）相同水分条件下,不同光周期对蒙古栎幼苗不同春季物候的影响存在差异。长光周期对蒙古栎幼苗展叶盛期影响最大,短光周期对芽膨大期影响最大,但均表现为抑制作用。（3）相同水分条件下,温度升高与光周期增加协同作用有助于促进蒙古栎幼苗春季物候提前,但温度升高与光周期缩短协同作用则对春季物候有抑制作用。（4）蒙古栎幼苗春季物候变化与前期气候胁迫程度存在显著正相关,表明前期气候因子也是物候变化的重要影响因子。研究结果丰富了蒙古栎物候响应多气候因子协同作用的认知,有助于促进物候模型的完善。     

民勤荒漠植被对气候变化的响应

运用民勤荒漠区1974-2009年物候观测资料和2002-2010年植被样方观测资料以及同期气象资料,分析了荒漠植被对气候变化的响应.结果表明:1961-2010年,民勤荒漠区气温升高,空气湿度增大,年均气温升高速率大于全球水平和中国近百年平均水平;植物对气温变化的响应主要表现在春季物候提前、秋季物候推迟、生长季延长;植被对降水量变化的响应主要表现为植被盖度和纯盖度随降水量减少而降低,植株密度、植物多度随降水量变化而波动;植被盖度和纯盖度与年降水量的相关性较高,然后依次为6-7月和4-5月的降水量;植株密度和植物多度与9月降水量呈正相关;植物春季物候提前的次序是芽初膨大期＞芽开放期＞开花始期＞展叶始期和展叶盛期＞花蕾序出现＞开花盛期＞开花末期＞果实成熟期;秋季物候推迟的次序是叶全变色期＞落叶始期＞叶初变色期＞落叶末期.春季气温升高对民勤荒漠区植物物候的影响大于秋季气温升高对物候的影响.     

莎车巴旦姆物候期对气象条件的响应及花期预测模型

利用莎车县农业气象试验站2008—2013年巴旦姆物候期和同期气象观测资料,分析了巴旦姆物候期的变化特征以及气温、日照时数对物候期的影响.结果表明：巴旦姆花期之前的物候期始日之间均呈正相关,与花期之后的物候期始日的相关性大多较小,花芽膨大早迟与休眠期、生长期天数分别呈极显著的正相关和负相关.以果实成熟期为界,气温对之前、之后物候期间隔日数的影响分别为负相关和正相关,日照时数与物候期间隔日数大多为正相关.果实成熟 叶变色始期间隔日数对平均最高气温以及花序出现 开花末期、叶变色始期 落叶末期间隔日数对日照时数存在明显的响应.当巴旦姆休眠期符合日平均气温-3.0～-7.5 ℃的天数满30 d后,经过17～28 d将进入花芽萌动期.花芽萌动期、开花始期、叶变色始期和落叶末期的始日分别与首个候平均气温≥4 ℃且候平均最高气温≥12 ℃、春季侯平均气温≥14 ℃且侯平均最高气温≥22 ℃、秋季首个侯平均气温≤10 ℃且侯平均最高气温≤18 ℃和冬季首个侯平均气温≤1.9 ℃的候序一一对应.利用偏最小二乘法回归分析,建立巴旦姆盛花期始日预测模型,经过检验模型效果较好.     

升温、光周期和氮添加变化对兴安落叶松幼苗叶黄期的影响

物候是气候变化敏感指标,是陆地生态系统模型的关键参数。目前关于气候变化对物候影响的研究较多,但关于多环境因子交互作用对秋季物候影响的研究尚不充分,制约着物候变化机制的认知与模型发展。以兴安落叶松幼苗叶黄期为研究对象,采用控制实验研究叶黄期对升温、光周期和氮添加变化及其交互作用的响应。结果表明：（1）升温对兴安落叶松幼苗叶黄期的影响较显著,升温使叶黄始期和叶黄普期显著提前,完全变色期不显著推迟;（2）光周期变化对叶黄期的影响极显著,光周期延长使叶黄始期和叶黄普期显著提前,完全变色期显著推迟;（3）叶黄期与氮添加量相关性不显著;（4）升温、光周期和氮添加变化双因子交互作用对叶黄始期和叶黄普期的影响均极显著且均存在极值,但对完全变色期的影响均不显著：升温与光周期延长交互作用使叶黄始期和叶黄普期提前,且在升温1.5℃、光周期14h时最显著;光周期延长与氮添加交互作用使叶黄始期和叶黄普期提前,且在施低氮（5g N m^-2 a^-1）、光周期10h时最显著;升温与氮添加交互作用使叶黄始期和叶黄普期提前,且在施高氮（20g N m^-2 a^-1）、升温1.5℃时最显著;（5）升温、光周期和氮添加变化交互作用对叶黄始期和叶黄普期影响极显著,对完全变色期的影响不显著。这表明,升温、光周期延长和氮添加将延长兴安落叶松幼苗叶黄期,从而增加兴安落叶松幼苗的固碳时间。研究结果可为物候模型发展以及森林生态系统碳估算提供依据。     

Long‐term changes in the impacts of global warming on leaf phenology of four temperate tree species

Contrary to the generally advanced spring leaf unfolding under global warming, the effects of the climate warming on autumn leaf senescence are highly variable with advanced, delayed, and unchanged patterns being all reported. Using one million records of leaf phenology from four dominant temperate species in Europe, we investigated the temperature sensitivities of spring leaf unfolding and autumn leaf senescence (S_T, advanced or delayed days per degree Celsius). The S_T of spring phenology in all of the four examined species showed an increase and decrease during 1951–1980 and 1981–2013, respectively. The decrease in the S_T during 1981–2013 appears to be caused by reduced accumulation of chilling units. As with spring phenology, the S_T of leaf senescence of early successional and exotic species started to decline since 1980. In contrast, for late successional species, the S_T of autumn senescence showed an increase for the entire study period from 1951 to 2013. Moreover, the impacts of rising temperature associated with global warming on spring leaf unfolding were stronger than those on autumn leaf senescence. The timing of leaf senescence was positively correlated with the timing of leaf unfolding during 1951–1980. However, as climate warming continued, the differences in the responses between spring and autumn phenology gradually increased, so that the correlation was no more significant during 1981–2013. Our results further suggest that since 2000, due to the decreased temperature sensitivity of leaf unfolding the length of the growing season has not increased any more. These finding needs to be addressed in vegetation models used for assessing the effects of climate change.     

Larger temperature response of autumn leaf senescence than spring leaf‐out phenology

Climate warming is substantially shifting the leaf phenological events of plants, and thereby impacting on their individual fitness and also on the structure and functioning of ecosystems. Previous studies have largely focused on the climate impact on spring phenology, and to date the processes underlying leaf senescence and their associated environmental drivers remain poorly understood. In this study, experiments with temperature gradients imposed during the summer and autumn were conducted on saplings of European beech to explore the temperature responses of leaf senescence. An additional warming experiment during winter enabled us to assess the differences in temperature responses of spring leaf‐out and autumn leaf senescence. We found that warming significantly delayed the dates of leaf senescence both during summer and autumn warming, with similar temperature sensitivities (6–8 days delay per °C warming), suggesting that, in the absence of water and nutrient limitation, temperature may be a dominant factor controlling the leaf senescence in European beech. Interestingly, we found a significantly larger temperature response of autumn leaf senescence than of spring leaf‐out. This suggests a possible larger contribution of delays in autumn senescence, than of the advancement in spring leaf‐out, to extending the growing season under future warmer conditions.     

The forgotten season: the impact of autumn phenology on a specialist insect herbivore community on oak

1. Variation in spring phenology – like tree budburst – affects the structure of insect communities, but impacts of autumn phenology have been neglected. Many plant species have recently delayed their autumn phenology, and the timing of leaf senescence may be important for herbivorous insects. 2. This study explored how an insect herbivore community associated with Quercus robur is influenced by variation in autumn phenology. For this, schools were asked to record, across the range of oak in Sweden, the autumn phenology of oaks and to conduct a survey of the insect community. 3. To tease apart the relative impacts of climate from that of tree phenology, regional tree phenology was first modelled as a function of regional climate, and the tree‐specific deviation from this relationship was then used as the metric of relative tree‐specific phenology. 4. At the regional scale, a warmer climate postponed oak leaf senescence. This was also reflected in the insect herbivore community: six out of 15 taxa occurred at a higher incidence and five out of 18 taxa were more abundant, in locations with a warmer climate. Similarly, taxonomic richness and herbivory were higher in warmer locations. 5. Trees with a relatively late autumn phenology had higher abundances of leaf miners (Phyllonorycter spp.). This caused lower community diversity and evenness on trees with later autumn phenology. 6. The findings of the present study illustrate that both regional climate‐driven patterns and local variation in oak autumn phenology contribute to shaping the insect herbivore community. Community patterns may thus shift with a changing climate.     

Simulated herbivory advances autumn phenology in Acer rubrum

To determine the degree to which herbivory contributes to phenotypic variation in autumn phenology for deciduous trees, red maple (Acer rubrum) branches were subjected to low and high levels of simulated herbivory and surveyed at the end of the season to assess abscission and degree of autumn coloration. Overall, branches with simulated herbivory abscised ～7 % more leaves at each autumn survey date than did control branches within trees. While branches subjected to high levels of damage showed advanced phenology, abscission rates did not differ from those of undamaged branches within trees because heavy damage induced earlier leaf loss on adjacent branch nodes in this treatment. Damaged branches had greater proportions of leaf area colored than undamaged branches within trees, having twice the amount of leaf area colored at the onset of autumn and having ～16 % greater leaf area colored in late October when nearly all leaves were colored. When senescence was scored as the percent of all leaves abscised and/or colored, branches in both treatments reached peak senescence earlier than did control branches within trees: dates of 50 % senescence occurred 2.5 days earlier for low herbivory branches and 9.7 days earlier for branches with high levels of simulated damage. These advanced rates are of the same time length as reported delays in autumn senescence and advances in spring onset due to climate warming. Thus, results suggest that should insect damage increase as a consequence of climate change, it may offset a lengthening of leaf life spans in some tree species.     

Effect of open-field experimental warming on the leaf phenology of oriental oak (Quercus variabilis) seedlings

Aims An open-field warming experiment enables us to test the effects of projected temperature increase on change in plant phenology with fewer confounding factors and to study phenological response to temperature ranges beyond natural variability. This study aims to (i) examine the effect of temperature increase on leaf unfolding and senescence of oriental oak (Quercus variabilis Blume) under experimental warming and (ii) measure temperature-related parameters used in estimating phenological response to temperature elevation.Methods Using an open-field warming system with infrared heaters, we increased the air temperature by ~3°C in the warmed plots compared with that of the control plots consistently for 2 years. Leaf unfolding and senescence dates of Q. variabilis seedlings were recorded and temperature-related phenological parameters were analysed.Important findings The timing of leaf unfolding was advanced by 3–8 days (1.1–3.0 days/°C) and the date of leaf senescence was delayed by 14–19 days (5.0–7.3 days/°C) under elevated air temperatures. However, the cumulative degree days (CDD) of leaf unfolding were not significantly changed by experimental warming, which suggest the applicability of a constant CDD value to estimate the change in spring leaf phenology under 3°C warming. Consistent ranges of advancement and temperature sensitivity in spring phenology and delayed autumn phenology and proposed temperature parameters from this study might be applied to predict future phenological change.     

The timing of autumn senescence is affected by the timing of spring phenology: implications for predictive models

Autumn senescence regulates multiple aspects of ecosystem function, along with associated feedbacks to the climate system. Despite its importance, current understanding of the drivers of senescence is limited, leading to a large spread in predictions of how the timing of senescence, and thus the length of the growing season, will change under future climate conditions. The most commonly held paradigm is that temperature and photoperiod are the primary controls, which suggests a future extension of the autumnal growing season as global temperatures rise. Here, using two decades of ground‐ and satellite‐based observations of temperate deciduous forest phenology, we show that the timing of autumn senescence is correlated with the timing of spring budburst across the entire eastern United States. On a year‐to‐year basis, an earlier/later spring was associated with an earlier/later autumn senescence, both for individual species and at a regional scale. We use the observed relationship to develop a novel model of autumn phenology. In contrast to current phenology models, this model predicts that the potential response of autumn phenology to future climate change is strongly limited by the impact of climate change on spring phenology. Current models of autumn phenology therefore may overpredict future increases in the length of the growing season, with subsequent impacts for modeling future CO₂ uptake and evapotranspiration.     

Elevated [CO2] and nutrient status modified leaf phenology and growth rhythm of young Populus trichocarpa trees in a 3-year field study

Young individuals of a single clone of black cottonwood, in Iceland, were exposed for 3 years to elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations [CO₂] in whole-tree chambers at natural and high nutrient availability. No treatment effects were found at bud break or the start of shoot extension in spring. Autumn phenology was, however, affected both by elevated [CO₂] and changes in nutrient status. The time of annual growth cessation was linearly related to leaf nitrogen concentration, irrespective of CO₂ treatment. At low (natural) nutrient availability, elevated [CO₂] accelerated growth cessation and bud set, which reduced the period of active growth. An earlier and more pronounced leaf senescence and corresponding loss of photosynthetic capacity further decreased carbon acquisition in elevated [CO₂]. The negative [CO₂] effect on duration of shoot extension and leaf senescence existed, but was not as pronounced, when trees grew at higher nutrient availability. Improved nutrient availability extended the shoot extension period and delayed leaf senescence. It is suggested that trees grown in elevated [CO₂] altered their autumn phenology as an effect of a signal similar to that in trees growing at low nutrient availability, i.e. an imbalance between carbon and nitrogen sources. These alterations in autumn phenology may be important when predicting how trees will grow in a future CO₂ environment.     

Effects of Warming on Chlorophyll Degradation and Carbohydrate Accumulation of Alpine Herbaceous Species during Plant Senescence on the Tibetan Plateau

Plant senescence is a critical life history process accompanied by chlorophyll degradation and has large implications for nutrient resorption and carbohydrate storage. Although photoperiod governs much of seasonal leaf senescence in many plant species, temperature has also been shown to modulate this process. Therefore, we hypothesized that climate warming would significantly impact the length of the plant growing season and ultimate productivity. To test this assumption, we measured the effects of simulated autumn climate warming paradigms on four native herbaceous species that represent distinct life forms of alpine meadow plants on the Tibetan Plateau. Conditions were simulated in open-top chambers (OTCs) and the effects on the degradation of chlorophyll, nitrogen (N) concentration in leaves and culms, total non-structural carbohydrate (TNC) in roots, growth and phenology were assessed during one year following treatment. The results showed that climate warming in autumn changed the senescence process only for perennials by slowing chlorophyll degradation at the beginning of senescence and accelerating it in the following phases. Warming also increased root TNC storage as a result of higher N concentrations retained in leaves; however, this effect was species dependent and did not alter the growing and flowering phenology in the following seasons. Our results indicated that autumn warming increases carbohydrate accumulation, not only by enhancing activities of photosynthetic enzymes (a mechanism proposed in previous studies), but also by affecting chlorophyll degradation and preferential allocation of resources to different plant compartments. The different responses to warming can be explained by inherently different growth and phenology patterns observed among the studied species. The results implied that warming leads to changes in the competitive balance among life forms, an effect that can subsequently shift vegetation distribution and species composition in communities.     

Substantial variation in leaf senescence times among 1360 temperate woody plant species: implications for phenology and ecosystem processes

Background and Aims Autumn leaf senescence marks the end of the growing season in temperate ecosystems. Its timing influences a number of ecosystem processes, including carbon, water and nutrient cycling. Climate change is altering leaf senescence phenology and, as those changes continue, it will affect individual woody plants, species and ecosystems. In contrast to spring leaf out times, however, leaf senescence times remain relatively understudied. Variation in the phenology of leaf senescence among species and locations is still poorly understood.Methods Leaf senescence phenology of 1360 deciduous plant species at six temperate botanical gardens in Asia, North America and Europe was recorded in 2012 and 2013. This large data set was used to explore ecological and phylogenetic factors associated with variation in leaf senescence.Key Results Leaf senescence dates among species varied by 3 months on average across the six locations. Plant species tended to undergo leaf senescence in the same order in the autumns of both years at each location, but the order of senescence was only weakly correlated across sites. Leaf senescence times were not related to spring leaf out times, were not evolutionarily conserved and were only minimally influenced by growth habit, wood anatomy and percentage colour change or leaf drop. These weak patterns of leaf senescence timing contrast with much stronger leaf out patterns from a previous study.Conclusions The results suggest that, in contrast to the broader temperature effects that determine leaf out times, leaf senescence times are probably determined by a larger or different suite of local environmental effects, including temperature, soil moisture, frost and wind. Determining the importance of these factors for a wide range of species represents the next challenge for understanding how climate change is affecting the end of the growing season and associated ecosystem processes.