1982—2009年基于卫星数据的北半球中高纬地区植被春季物候动态及其与气候的关系

深入认识北半球植被物候在全球变暖背景下的动态变化特征,对于评估和预测生态系统结构和功能对气候变化的响应有重要的指示作用.遥感技术是获取北半球植被春季物候的最重要方法,但是由于物候提取算法的差异,目前还存在较大的不确定性.本文利用5种方法,基于卫星获取的归一化植被指数估算了北半球中高纬地区1982—2009年植被春季物候开始日期,分析了该日期的多年动态变化的时空特征,并探讨了气候变化对春季物候变化的影响.结果表明: 研究区植被春季物候开始日期呈现提前趋势,研究期间提前(4.0±0.8) d,其中,欧亚大陆提前速率为(0.22±0.04) d·a^-1,显著高于北美大陆的变化速率(0.03±0.02 d·a^-1);不同植被类型的变化趋势不同,5种方法都显示草地表现为显著提前趋势,而林地的提前趋势不显著.区域平均的植被春季物候开始日期的年际波动主要受春季温度的变化所驱动(r² =0.61,P<0.001), 温度每上升1 ℃,可以导致春季物候提前(3.2±0.5) d,而春季降水影响不显著(P>0.05).     

中国东北城乡植被物候时空变化及其对地表温度的响应

以中国东北地区的沈阳、长春、哈尔滨3个大城市及其周边的乡村为研究单元,在像元尺度上采用小波变换法对长时间序列中分辨率成像光谱仪(Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, MODIS)增强植被指数(Enhanced Vegetation Index, EVI)数据滤除噪声数据后重建平滑的EVI曲线,基于EVI曲线,采用动态阈值法提取出研究区2009—2016年植被关键物候期参数指标,即植被生长季开始时间(Start of Growing Season, SOS)和结束时间(End of Growing Season, EOS),分析各研究单元植被物候时空变化特征及其对地表温度的响应特征。结果表明:各研究单元SOS和EOS值的空间分布图存在明显的城乡差异。每一个像元所属的实际位置距离城区中心越近,其SOS值越小,EOS值越大,表明植被生长季开始日期早结束日期晚,整个植被生长期时间变长。各研究单元植被物候参数指标的年际变化趋势具有一定的相似性,即SOS随时间均呈现出提前趋势,且城区和乡村的SOS年际变化趋势保持一致,变化速率各不相同。研究区2012年的SOS值是研究时段内的最大值,从植被物候期反映来看,该年是一个最冷年,这与当年受寒潮影响,出现暴雪,低温等极端天气的气候现象相吻合。各研究单元年均地表温度(Land Surface Temperature,LST)与对应的植被关键物候期参数均有显著的相关性,SOS与LST呈显著负相关,EOS与LST呈高度正相关。即植被物候同期的平均温度越高,植被生长季的起始时间越早,结束时间越晚。     

东北地区植被物候时序变化

植被与气候的关系非常密切,植被物候可作为气候变化的指示器。东北地区位于我国最北部,是气候变化的敏感区域,研究该区植被物候对气候变化的响应对阐明陆地生态体统碳循环具有重要意义。利用GIMMS AVHRR遥感数据集得到了东北地区阔叶林、针叶林、草原和草甸4种植被25a(1982—2006年)的物候时序变化,得出4种植被春季物候都表现出先提前后推迟的现象,秋季物候的变化则比较复杂,阔叶林和针叶林整体上呈现出秋季物候推迟的趋势,草原和草甸则表现为提前-推迟-提前的趋势。应用偏最小二乘(Partial Least Squares)回归分析了该区域植被物候与气候因子之间的关系,结果表明:春季温度与阔叶林、针叶林和草甸春季物候负相关,前一年冬季温度与草原春季物候正相关,降水与植被春季物候的关系有点复杂;4种植被秋季物候与夏季温度均呈正相关,除草原外,其余3种植被秋季物候均与夏季降水负相关。植被春季物候可能主要受温度影响,而秋季物候很可能主要受降水控制。     

黄土高原植被物候变化及其对季节性气候变化的响应

受气候变化影响,全球范围内植被物候发生了显著变化,而目前针对不同植被分区类型下（荒漠草原区、典型草原区、森林草原区、落叶栎林区、落叶栎林亚区）植被物候变化及其对季节性气候变化响应的研究尚少。因此基于MODIS遥感归一化差值植被指数（MODIS NDVI：MOD13Q1）数据、中国植被区划数据及135个气象站点插值数据,利用Sen''s斜率估计、Hurst指数和高阶偏相关分析等方法,研究黄土高原2001-2018年植被物侯变化及其对季节性气候变化的响应。结果表明：（1）黄土高原植被生长季始期（SOS,Start of Growing Season）主要集中在第96-144天,子植被分区由西北向东南方向,逐渐呈现提前趋势,71.0%的像元植被SOS整体提前0-2 d/10a （α=0.05）,且在未来一段时间66%的像元植被SOS继续呈现提前趋势;植被生长季末期（EOS,End of Growing Season）主要集中在第288-304天,各子植被分区植被EOS变化基本保持一致,87.6％的像元植被EOS整体延迟0-3 d/10a （α=0.05）,且在未来一段时间有80%的像元植被EOS继续呈现推迟趋势。（2）黄土高原植被SOS主要受各季节温度的影响;当年春季降水导致植被SOS提前,主要分布在黄土高原中部;上年夏季和上年秋季降水增加会导致植被SOS推迟;当年春季、上年秋季和年初冬季的温度升高均会导致植被SOS提前;各子植被分区植被SOS对不同季节降水的响应存在差异,而对不同季节温度的响应具有一致性。（3）黄土高原植被EOS主要受各季节降水和秋季温度的影响;不同季节降水增加均会导致大部分植被EOS推迟;当年秋季温度导致整体区域植被EOS推迟,且各子植被区植被EOS对当年秋季温度响应具有一致性。该研究可为大尺度植被物候影响因素提供新的认识,也为植被适应未来气候变化提供借鉴。     

洞庭湖流域植被光合物候的时空变化及其对气候变化的响应

为研究洞庭湖流域植被春季光合物候和秋季光合物候的时空变化,揭示其对气候变化的响应规律,为亚热带植被物候模型的建立和碳收支评估提供有益参考,该研究利用2000–2018年的日光诱导叶绿素荧光(SIF)遥感数据反演洞庭湖流域植被春季光合物候(春季光合作用开始的时间)和秋季光合物候(秋季光合作用停止的时间),分析植被春季、秋季光合物候的时空变化趋势及其对气候变化的响应机制。研究结果:(1) 2000–2018年,洞庭湖流域植被春季光合物候以0.75 d·a–1的速度显著提前,秋季光合物候以0.17d·a–1的速度呈延后趋势,植被生长季长度以0.90d·a–1的速度显著延长;(2)季前最高气温和最低气温是研究区春季光合物候提前的主要影响因素,秋季光合物候与季前降水量、最低气温、辐射强度均呈正相关关系,而与季前最高气温主要呈负相关关系;(3)研究区植被春季光合物候对气候变化的响应更敏感,尤其是季前最低气温的升高导致常绿针叶林、常绿阔叶林、灌丛和草地的春季光合物候显著提前。洞庭湖流域植被春季光合物候提前对生长季延长起主导作用,这表明在气候变暖的背景下,植被春季光合物候对增强研究区碳汇功能扮演着比秋...     

利用遥感数据优化物候模型时样本选择的新方法

植被物候模型是生态系统模型的重要组成部分, 其精度对准确地模拟陆面和大气之间的能量和物质交换具有重要意义。利用遥感获取空间物候信息并与气候数据进行耦合分析是在中亚干旱区等地面物候观测数据缺乏的地区构建物候模型的重要方法。为减小混合植被像元和气候数据资料的内在误差及二者在空间尺度的不匹配对物候模型构建产生的影响, 该研究提出一种在气象站点周围选取满足规定规则集的“代表植被类型像元”作为样本点的选择方法, 以代表植被类型像元的遥感物候数据和气象站点数据为基础, 结合经典物候模型和改进物候模型, 在粒子群优化算法支持下, 分别以独立的拟合与评价样本数据, 完成了荒漠草原植被与落叶阔叶林的模型拟合与评价。研究发现中亚干旱区荒漠草原植被的最优模型为温度-降水修正模型, 落叶阔叶林的最优模型为替代模型。通过此方法模型总体精度在8-10 d左右。结果表明此方法在气候数据和植物物候空间匹配方面有改进, 有助于提高物候模型精度。     

1982-2013年内蒙古地区植被物候对干旱变化的响应

气候变化引起的植被物候变化正在大幅度改变生态系统,研究植被物候对干旱的响应对保护内蒙古的生态系统具有重要意义。根据1：100万植被区划,把内蒙古划分为8个植被分区,利用多时间尺度气象标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）和NDVI3g时序数据所反演的物候指标,分析内蒙古植被物候的时空变化及其对干旱的响应规律。结果显示：1）在1982年至2013年间,内蒙古植被受到不同时间尺度下干旱的高度控制,尤其是时间尺度干旱的影响（SPEI-3）;2）对于整个研究区,生长季开始（SOS）呈提前趋势,生长季结束（EOS）呈延后趋势,生长季长度（LOS）呈延长趋势,像元比例分别为63.79%、59.77%和62.83%;3）内蒙古除荒漠植被类型地区外,同年春季和夏季初期干旱对SOS均具有延迟作用,同年秋季干旱对EOS均具有延迟作用 ;4） 不同植被类型对干旱强度指数的响应程度存在差异,响应程度集中在-10d/0.1-10d/0.1（例如,1d/0.1表示干旱强度指数每增大0.1,会导致物候指数延迟1 d,而-1d/0.1表示干旱强度指数每增大0.1,会导致物候指数提前1 d）。     

A new method of sample selections for optimizing phenology model based remote sensing data

 植被物候模型是生态系统模型的重要组成部分, 其精度对准确地模拟陆面和大气之间的能量和物质交换具有重要意义。利用遥感获取空间物候信息并与气候数据进行耦合分析是在中亚干旱区等地面物候观测数据缺乏的地区构建物候模型的重要方法。为减小混合植被像元和气候数据资料的内在误差及二者在空间尺度的不匹配对物候模型构建产生的影响, 该研究提出一种在气象站点周围选取满足规定规则集的“代表植被类型像元”作为样本点的选择方法, 以代表植被类型像元的遥感物候数据和气象站点数据为基础, 结合经典物候模型和改进物候模型, 在粒子群优化算法支持下, 分别以独立的拟合与评价样本数据, 完成了荒漠草原植被与落叶阔叶林的模型拟合与评价。研究发现中亚干旱区荒漠草原植被的最优模型为温度-降水修正模型, 落叶阔叶林的最优模型为替代模型。通过此方法模型总体精度在8–10 d左右。结果表明此方法在气候数据和植物物候空间匹配方面有改进, 有助于提高物候模型精度。     

基于日光诱导叶绿素荧光的北半球森林物候研究

植被物候是反映植被生长规律的重要指标, 对气候的反馈具有重要意义。日光诱导叶绿素荧光(SIF)通过复杂的能量耗散机制与光合作用相关联, 提供了从空间直接探测大范围植被物候的可能性。为了探究气候变化背景下SIF反演不同森林类型物候的适用性, 该文以北半球35个全球通量网(FLUXNET)森林站点为研究对象, 利用2007-2014年SIF值和总初级生产力(GPP)通过双逻辑生长模型和动态阈值法来估算3种典型森林类型的物候, 并采用相关性分析等方法评价SIF在估算不同森林类型物候时的差异性。主要结果为: 1) SIF对生长季开始时间(SOS)的估算精度高于生长季结束时间(EOS); 2) SIF能够更准确地估算混交林(MF)的SOS, 但是不能精确追踪落叶阔叶林(DBF)和常绿针叶林(ENF)的SOS; 3)春季季前短波辐射是驱动SOS的主要气候因素。综上, 建议在将来的研究中将SIF数据与其他遥感指数整合, 应用于不同植物类型的物候监测。     

秦岭山区植被春季物候的海拔敏感性

植被物候作为自然界规律性、周期性的现象,对自然环境尤其是气候变化有着重要的指示作用,研究其时空变化特征对陆地植被生态环境监测具有重要意义。本研究采用Savitzky-Golay滤波法重建秦岭山区2001—2018年MODIS增强植被指数时间序列影像,利用动态阈值法提取研究区春季物候信息(返青期),并对返青期多年平均值和年际变化与海拔、坡度进行相关分析。结果表明: 海拔每升高100 m,植被返青期推迟1.82 d;返青期的年际变化趋势主要集中在0~5 d·(10 a)^-1。其中,呈推迟趋势的像元主要分布在低海拔地区,呈提前趋势的像元主要分布在高海拔地区。高海拔地区返青期的年际变化比低海拔地区复杂;秦岭山区植被返青期存在南北差异。北坡植被返青期多年平均值较南坡早2.9 d,南坡植被返青期的推迟程度大于北坡。南北坡植被返青期的年际变化在低海拔地区呈推迟趋势,且南北坡相差不大,而提前趋势在中高海拔地区存在显著差异。     

The influence of local spring temperature variance on temperature sensitivity of spring phenology

The impact of climate warming on the advancement of plant spring phenology has been heavily investigated over the last decade and there exists great variability among plants in their phenological sensitivity to temperature. However, few studies have explicitly linked phenological sensitivity to local climate variance. Here, we set out to test the hypothesis that the strength of phenological sensitivity declines with increased local spring temperature variance, by synthesizing results across ground observations. We assemble ground‐based long‐term (20–50 years) spring phenology database (PEP725 database) and the corresponding climate dataset. We find a prevalent decline in the strength of phenological sensitivity with increasing local spring temperature variance at the species level from ground observations. It suggests that plants might be less likely to track climatic warming at locations with larger local spring temperature variance. This might be related to the possibility that the frost risk could be higher in a larger local spring temperature variance and plants adapt to avoid this risk by relying more on other cues (e.g., high chill requirements, photoperiod) for spring phenology, thus suppressing phenological responses to spring warming. This study illuminates that local spring temperature variance is an understudied source in the study of phenological sensitivity and highlight the necessity of incorporating this factor to improve the predictability of plant responses to anthropogenic climate change in future studies.     

Forecasting phenology under global warming

As a consequence of warming temperatures around the world, spring and autumn phenologies have been shifting, with corresponding changes in the length of the growing season. Our understanding of the spatial and interspecific variation of these changes, however, is limited. Not all species are responding similarly, and there is significant spatial variation in responses even within species. This spatial and interspecific variation complicates efforts to predict phenological responses to ongoing climate change, but must be incorporated in order to build reliable forecasts. Here, we use a long-term dataset (1953–2005) of plant phenological events in spring (flowering and leaf out) and autumn (leaf colouring and leaf fall) throughout Japan and South Korea to build forecasts that account for these sources of variability. Specifically, we used hierarchical models to incorporate the spatial variability in phenological responses to temperature to then forecast species'' overall and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species, spring phenology is advancing and autumn phenology is getting later, with the timing of events changing more quickly in autumn compared with the spring. Temporal trends and phenological responses to temperature in East Asia contrasted with results from comparable studies in Europe, where spring events are changing more rapidly than are autumn events. Our results emphasize the need to study multiple species at many sites to understand and forecast regional changes in phenology.     

气候变化对桂林植物物候的影响

利用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall突变检测等方法,对桂林气候(1951～2009年)和3种植物物候(1983～2009年)的趋势变化特征进行了分析,并探讨了物候期与气温、日照、降水等气象因子的相关性及其对主要气候影响因子的响应情况。结果表明:在当地气候变化背景下,桂林市植物物候期发生了不同程度的变化,春季物候期提前,秋季物候期推迟,绿叶期延长;平均气温是影响植物物候期最为显著的气象因子,气温每增高1℃,春季物候平均提前5d左右,秋季物候平均推迟8d左右,绿叶期延长约27d;春季物候和绿叶期的突变一般发生在气温突变之后,但秋季物候期突变与其影响月份气温的突变并无关系。以上分析说明植物物候对气候变化响应比较敏感,通过分析气候和植物物候变化的规律,掌握气候对当地植物物候的可能影响,可为农业生产、生态环境监测和评估等提供理论依据。     

Effect of open-field experimental warming on the leaf phenology of oriental oak (Quercus variabilis) seedlings

Aims An open-field warming experiment enables us to test the effects of projected temperature increase on change in plant phenology with fewer confounding factors and to study phenological response to temperature ranges beyond natural variability. This study aims to (i) examine the effect of temperature increase on leaf unfolding and senescence of oriental oak (Quercus variabilis Blume) under experimental warming and (ii) measure temperature-related parameters used in estimating phenological response to temperature elevation.Methods Using an open-field warming system with infrared heaters, we increased the air temperature by ~3°C in the warmed plots compared with that of the control plots consistently for 2 years. Leaf unfolding and senescence dates of Q. variabilis seedlings were recorded and temperature-related phenological parameters were analysed.Important findings The timing of leaf unfolding was advanced by 3–8 days (1.1–3.0 days/°C) and the date of leaf senescence was delayed by 14–19 days (5.0–7.3 days/°C) under elevated air temperatures. However, the cumulative degree days (CDD) of leaf unfolding were not significantly changed by experimental warming, which suggest the applicability of a constant CDD value to estimate the change in spring leaf phenology under 3°C warming. Consistent ranges of advancement and temperature sensitivity in spring phenology and delayed autumn phenology and proposed temperature parameters from this study might be applied to predict future phenological change.     

Urban environments provide new perspectives for forecasting vegetation phenology responses under climate warming

Given that already-observed temperature increase within cities far exceeds the projected global temperature rise by the end of the century, urban environments often offer a unique opportunity for studying ecosystem response to future warming. However, the validity of thermal gradients in space serving as a substitute for those in time is rarely tested. Here, we investigated vegetation phenology dynamics in China's 343 cities and empirically test whether phenological responses to spatial temperature rise in urban settings can substitute for those to temporal temperature rise in their natural counterparts based on satellite-derived vegetation phenology and land surface temperature from 2003 to 2018. We found prevalent advancing spring phenology with “high confidence” and delaying autumn phenology with “medium confidence” under the context of widespread urban warming. Furthermore, we showed that space cannot substitute for time in predicting phenological shifts under climate warming at the national scale and for most cities. The thresholds of ~11°C mean annual temperature and ~600 mm annual precipitation differentiated the magnitude of phenological sensitivity to temperature across space and through time. Below those thresholds, there existed stronger advanced spring phenology and delayed autumn phenology across the spatial urbanization gradients than through time, and vice versa. Despite the complex and diverse relationships between phenological sensitivities across space and through time, we found that the directions of the temperature changes across spatial gradients were converged (i.e., mostly increased), but divergent through temporal gradients (i.e., increased or decreased without a predominant direction). Similarly, vegetation phenology changes more uniformly over space than through time. These results suggested that the urban environments provide a real-world condition to understand vegetation phenology response under future warming.     

Alpine grassland plants grow earlier and faster but biomass remains unchanged over 35 years of climate change

Satellite data indicate significant advancement in alpine spring phenology over decades of climate warming, but corresponding field evidence is scarce. It is also unknown whether this advancement results from an earlier shift of phenological events, or enhancement of plant growth under unchanged phenological pattern. By analyzing a 35‐year dataset of seasonal biomass dynamics of a Tibetan alpine grassland, we show that climate change promoted both earlier phenology and faster growth, without changing annual biomass production. Biomass production increased in spring due to a warming‐induced earlier onset of plant growth, but decreased in autumn due mainly to increased water stress. Plants grew faster but the fast‐growing period shortened during the mid‐growing season. These findings provide the first in situ evidence of long‐term changes in growth patterns in alpine grassland plant communities, and suggest that earlier phenology and faster growth will jointly contribute to plant growth in a warming climate.     

The influence of life history traits on the phenological response of British butterflies to climate variability since the late‐19th century

Many species of plants and animals have advanced their phenology in response to climate warming in recent decades. Most of the evidence available for these shifts is based on data from the last few decades, a period coinciding with rapid climate warming. Baseline data is required to put these recent phenological changes in a long‐term context. We analysed the phenological response of 51 resident British butterfly species using data from 83 500 specimens in the collections of the Natural History Museum, London, covering the period 1880–1970. Our analysis shows that only three species significantly advanced their phenology between 1880 and 1970, probably reflecting the relatively small increase in spring temperature over this period. However, the phenology of all but one of the species we analysed showed phenological sensitivity to inter‐annual climate variability and a significant advancement in phenology in years in which spring or summer temperatures were warm and dry. The phenologies of butterfly species were more sensitive to weather if the butterfly species was early flying, southerly distributed, and a generalist in terms of larval diet. This observation is consistent with the hypothesis that species with greater niche breadth may be more phenologically sensitive than species with important niche constraints. Comparison of our results with post‐1976 data from the UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme show that species flying early in the year had a greater rate of phenological advancement prior to the mid‐1970s. Additionally, prior to the mid‐1970s, phenology was influenced by temperatures in March or April, whereas since 1976, February temperature had a stronger influence on the phenology. These results suggest that early flying species may be approaching the limits of phenological advancement in response to recent climate warming.     

Prairie plant phenology driven more by temperature than moisture in climate manipulations across a latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest,USA

Plant phenology will likely shift with climate change, but how temperature and/or moisture regimes will control phenological responses is not well understood. This is particularly true in Mediterranean climate ecosystems where the warmest temperatures and greatest moisture availability are seasonally asynchronous. We examined plant phenological responses at both the population and community levels to four climate treatments (control, warming, drought, and warming plus additional precipitation) embedded within three prairies across a 520 km latitudinal Mediterranean climate gradient within the Pacific Northwest, USA. At the population level, we monitored flowering and abundances in spring 2017 of eight range‐restricted focal species planted both within and north of their current ranges. At the community level, we used normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) measured from fall 2016 to summer 2018 to estimate peak live biomass, senescence, seasonal patterns, and growing season length. We found that warming exerted a stronger control than our moisture manipulations on phenology at both the population and community levels. Warming advanced flowering regardless of whether a species was within or beyond its current range. Importantly, many of our focal species had low abundances, particularly in the south, suggesting that establishment, in addition to phenological shifts, may be a strong constraint on their future viability. At the community level, warming advanced the date of peak biomass regardless of site or year. The date of senescence advanced regardless of year for the southern and central sites but only in 2018 for the northern site. Growing season length contracted due to warming at the southern and central sites (~3 weeks) but was unaffected at the northern site. Our results emphasize that future temperature changes may exert strong influence on the timing of a variety of plant phenological events, especially those events that occur when temperature is most limiting, even in seasonally water‐limited Mediterranean ecosystems.     

Larger temperature response of autumn leaf senescence than spring leaf‐out phenology

Climate warming is substantially shifting the leaf phenological events of plants, and thereby impacting on their individual fitness and also on the structure and functioning of ecosystems. Previous studies have largely focused on the climate impact on spring phenology, and to date the processes underlying leaf senescence and their associated environmental drivers remain poorly understood. In this study, experiments with temperature gradients imposed during the summer and autumn were conducted on saplings of European beech to explore the temperature responses of leaf senescence. An additional warming experiment during winter enabled us to assess the differences in temperature responses of spring leaf‐out and autumn leaf senescence. We found that warming significantly delayed the dates of leaf senescence both during summer and autumn warming, with similar temperature sensitivities (6–8 days delay per °C warming), suggesting that, in the absence of water and nutrient limitation, temperature may be a dominant factor controlling the leaf senescence in European beech. Interestingly, we found a significantly larger temperature response of autumn leaf senescence than of spring leaf‐out. This suggests a possible larger contribution of delays in autumn senescence, than of the advancement in spring leaf‐out, to extending the growing season under future warmer conditions.     

Changes in temperature sensitivity of spring phenology with recent climate warming in Switzerland are related to shifts of the preseason

The spring phenology of plants in temperate regions strongly responds to spring temperatures. Climate warming has caused substantial phenological advances in the past, but trends to be expected in the future are uncertain. A simple indicator is temperature sensitivity, the phenological advance statistically associated with a 1°C warmer mean temperature during the “preseason”, defined as the most temperature‐sensitive period preceding the phenological event. Recent analyses of phenological records have shown a decline in temperature sensitivity of leaf unfolding, but underlying mechanisms were not clear. Here, we propose that climate warming can reduce temperature sensitivity simply by reducing the length of the preseason due to faster bud development during this time period, unless the entire preseason shifts forward so that its temperature does not change. We derive these predictions theoretically from the widely used “thermal time model” for bud development and test them using data for 19 phenological events recorded in 1970–2012 at 108 stations spanning a 1600 m altitudinal range in Switzerland. We consider how temperature sensitivity, preseason start, preseason length and preseason temperature change (i) with altitude, (ii) between the periods 1970–1987 and 1995–2012, which differed mainly in spring temperatures, and (iii) between two non‐consecutive sets of 18 years that differed mainly in winter temperatures. On average, temperature sensitivity increased with altitude (colder climate) and was reduced in years with warmer springs, but not in years with warmer winters. These trends also varied among species. Decreasing temperature sensitivity in warmer springs was associated with a limited forward shift of preseason start, higher temperatures during the preseason and reduced preseason length, but not with reduced winter chilling. Our results imply that declining temperature sensitivity can result directly from spring warming and does not necessarily indicate altered physiological responses or stronger constraints such as reduced winter chilling.