Urban Tree Effects on Soil Organic Carbon

Urban trees sequester carbon into biomass and provide many ecosystem service benefits aboveground leading to worldwide tree planting schemes. Since soils hold ∼75% of ecosystem organic carbon, understanding the effect of urban trees on soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil properties that underpin belowground ecosystem services is vital. We use an observational study to investigate effects of three important tree genera and mixed-species woodlands on soil properties (to 1 m depth) compared to adjacent urban grasslands. Aboveground biomass and belowground ecosystem service provision by urban trees are found not to be directly coupled. Indeed, SOC enhancement relative to urban grasslands is genus-specific being highest under Fraxinus excelsior and Acer spp., but similar to grasslands under Quercus robur and mixed woodland. Tree cover type does not influence soil bulk density or C∶N ratio, properties which indicate the ability of soils to provide regulating ecosystem services such as nutrient cycling and flood mitigation. The trends observed in this study suggest that genus selection is important to maximise long-term SOC storage under urban trees, but emerging threats from genus-specific pathogens must also be considered.     

110 Years of change in urban tree stocks and associated carbon storage

Understanding the long‐term dynamics of urban vegetation is essential in determining trends in the provision of key resources for biodiversity and ecosystem services and improving their management. Such studies are, however, extremely scarce due to the lack of suitable historical data. We use repeat historical photographs from the 1900s, 1950s, and 2010 to assess general trends in the quantity and size distributions of the tree stock in urban Sheffield and resultant aboveground carbon storage. Total tree numbers declined by a third from the 1900s to the 1950s, but increased by approximately 50% from the 1900s–2010, and by 100% from the 1950s–2010. Aboveground carbon storage in urban tree stocks had doubled by 2010 from the levels present in the 1900s and 1950s. The initial decrease occurred at a time when national and regional tree stocks were static and are likely to be driven by rebuilding following bombing of the urban area during the Second World War and by urban expansion. In 2010, trees greater than 10 m in height comprised just 8% of those present. The increases in total tree numbers are thus largely driven by smaller trees and are likely to be associated with urban tree planting programmes. Changes in tree stocks were not constant across the urban area but varied with the current intensity of urbanization. Increases from 1900 to 2010 in total tree stocks, and smaller sized trees, tended to be greatest in the most intensely urbanized areas. In contrast, the increases in the largest trees were more marked in areas with the most green space. These findings emphasize the importance of preserving larger fragments of urban green space to protect the oldest and largest trees that contribute disproportionately to carbon storage and other ecosystem services. Maintaining positive trends in urban tree stocks and associated ecosystem service provision will require continued investment in urban tree planting programmes in combination with additional measures, such as revisions to tree preservation orders, to increase the retention of such trees as they mature.     

Quantifying street tree regulating ecosystem services using Google Street View

The urban heat island is a particular challenge for tropical cities, which receive year-round high inputs of solar radiation. Plants can help mitigate elevated urban temperatures by providing shade and increasing evaporative cooling, although the resulting increase in humidity may negatively affect thermal comfort. Street trees offer particular potential for cooling urban microclimates, as well as providing other ecosystem services, because they can be integrated within dense urban street networks. However, we have little quantitative information about the role of street trees in providing regulating ecosystem services in tropical cities. In this study, we analysed hemispherical photographs extracted from Google Street View to quantify the proportion of green canopy coverage at 50 m intervals across more than 80% of Singapore’s road network. Canopy coverage data were then used to estimate the proportion of annual radiation that would be blocked from reaching ground level by the canopy. Across all locations, a median of 13% of the annual diffuse and direct solar radiation was shaded, and over 70% of this shading effect was due to the tree canopy. There was significant variation between different urban landuse types, with trees providing more shade in parks and low-density low-rise areas than in industrial and higher-density residential areas. Mapping the provision of street tree ecosystem services could help to prioritise areas for new planting by identifying streets or street sections with low shading. The approach developed in this article could be readily applied to quantify the proportion of canopy coverage and proportion of solar radiation shaded across other tropical cities. The method may also be applicable in temperate cities if Google Street View photographs were collected during the growing season.     

Improving the provision of ecosystem services from urban forest by integrating the species’ potential environmental functions in tree selecting process

Due to the fact that urban environments and population demands are evolving rapidly and species selection is inevitable, it is possible to gain substantial environmental benefit by implementing more effective urban tree planting programs, especially with the aim of increasing the upcoming provision of multiple ecosystem services (ES) through proper species selection. In this paper, we used a new approach to improve the potential of urban trees in optimizing more desirable environmental benefits. This was done by selecting the most appropriate tree species among a vast range of species based on their potential environmental function (both services and disservices) in Tabriz city, Iran. Also, three main planting scenarios (divided to six sub-scenarios) were developed so as to understand the long-term effectiveness of introducing the selected tree species in improving the environmental benefits (both urban forest structure and ES) in comparison with planting the existing tree species. The results indicate that regardless of the quantity of planting, the benefits of introducing the selected trees will be more than planting the existing species. Moreover, as the amount of the annual planting of the recommended species increases, so does the improvement in the projected tree characteristics and ES. This approach creates more opportunities which enable urban forest managers and policymakers to understand the importance of selecting the proper urban tree species when looking for a nature-based solution to promote the wellbeing of the urban population, to create more livable and ecologically sustainable cities and to mitigate urban environmental problems.

     

Species of street tree is important for southern hemisphere bird trophic guilds

Abstract Urban environments are highly modified with unique assemblages of bird species. Much of the research on urban bird assemblages comes from the northern hemisphere. Southern hemisphere bird assemblages differ from northern hemisphere assemblages in that they contain a large proportion of nectarivores. In this study we focus on bird use of street trees in Australia. We investigate the relative influence of tree species (plane tree, Platanus x acerifolia; red gums, Eucalyptus camaldulensis; jacaranda, Jacaranda mimosifolia; bottlebrush, Callistemon citrinus), season and the environment surrounding street trees, on the abundance and species richness of birds in Adelaide, South Australia. Our study considers birds in terms of granivore, nectarivore and insectivore trophic guilds. Nectarivores accounted for the greatest proportion of observations, in terms of abundance, in each of the tree species investigated. Species of street tree was a significant influence on bird use of the trees for all birds and each dietary guild. Red gums were used more than the other tree species by nectarivores, while plane trees were used more than the other trees by insectivores. Use of the tree species by granivores varied with the season. The measures of the environment surrounding street trees were largely unimportant with the exception of traffic for nectarivores in some cases. Urban avifauna use street trees and the species of tree will strongly influence its use by birds. However, the pattern of use of street tree species varied at different times of year and differed between different trophic guilds of birds. The dominance of nectarivores in the southern avifauna will likely produce different patterns of urban environment use to northern hemisphere avifaunas.     

Satellite-based evidence highlights a considerable increase of urban tree cooling benefits from 2000 to 2015

Tree planting is a prevalent strategy to mitigate urban heat. Tree cooling efficiency (TCE), defined as the temperature reduction for a 1% tree cover increase, plays an important role in urban climate as it regulates the capacity of trees to alter the surface energy and water budget. However, the spatial variation and more importantly, temporal heterogeneity of TCE in global cities are not fully explored. Here, we used Landsat-based tree cover and land surface temperature (LST) to compare TCEs at a reference air temperature and tree cover level across 806 global cities and to explore their potential drivers with a boosted regression tree (BRT) machine learning model. From the results, we found that TCE is spatially regulated by not only leaf area index (LAI) but climate variables and anthropogenic factors especially city albedo, without a specific variable dominating the others. However, such spatial difference is attenuated by the decrease of TCE with tree cover, most pronounced in midlatitude cities. During the period 2000–2015, more than 90% of analyzed cities showed an increasing trend in TCE, which is likely explained by a combined result of the increase in LAI, intensified solar radiation due to decreased aerosol content, increase in urban vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and decrease of city albedo. Concurrently, significant urban afforestation occurred across many cities showing a global city-scale mean tree cover increase of 5.3 ± 3.8% from 2000 to 2015. Over the growing season, such increases combined with an increasing TCE were estimated to on average yield a midday surface cooling of 1.5 ± 1.3°C in tree-covered urban areas. These results are offering new insights into the use of urban afforestation as an adaptation to global warming and urban planners may leverage them to provide more cooling benefits if trees are primarily planted for this purpose.     

The Effects of Urban Warming on Herbivore Abundance and Street Tree Condition

Trees are essential to urban habitats because they provide services that benefit the environment and improve human health. Unfortunately, urban trees often have more herbivorous insect pests than rural trees but the mechanisms and consequences of these infestations are not well documented. Here, we examine how temperature affects the abundance of a scale insect, Melanaspis tenebricosa (Comstock) (Hemiptera: Diaspididae), on one of the most commonly planted street trees in the eastern U.S. Next, we examine how both pest abundance and temperature are associated with water stress, growth, and condition of 26 urban street trees. Although trees in the warmest urban sites grew the most, they were more water stressed and in worse condition than trees in cooler sites. Our analyses indicate that visible declines in tree condition were best explained by scale-insect infestation rather than temperature. To test the broader relevance of these results, we extend our analysis to a database of more than 2700 Raleigh, US street trees. Plotting these trees on a Landsat thermal image of Raleigh, we found that warmer sites had over 70% more trees in poor condition than those in cooler sites. Our results support previous studies linking warmer urban habitats to greater pest abundance and extend this association to show its effect on street tree condition. Our results suggest that street tree condition and ecosystem services may decline as urban expansion and global warming exacerbate the urban heat island effect. Although our non-probability sampling method limits our scope of inference, our results present a gloomy outlook for urban forests and emphasize the need for management tools. Existing urban tree inventories and thermal maps could be used to identify species that would be most suitable for urban conditions.     

Conflicting values: ecosystem services and invasive tree management

Tree species have been planted widely beyond their native ranges to provide or enhance ecosystem services such as timber and fibre production, erosion control, and aesthetic or amenity benefits. At the same time, non-native tree species can have strongly negative impacts on ecosystem services when they naturalize and subsequently become invasive and disrupt or transform communities and ecosystems. The dichotomy between positive and negative effects on ecosystem services has led to significant conflicts over the removal of non-native invasive tree species worldwide. These conflicts are often viewed in only a local context but we suggest that a global synthesis sheds important light on the dimensions of the phenomenon. We collated examples of conflict surrounding the control or management of tree invasions where conflict has caused delay, increased cost, or cessation of projects aimed at invasive tree removal. We found that conflicts span a diverse range of taxa, systems and countries, and that most conflicts emerge around three areas: urban and near-urban trees; trees that provide direct economic benefits; and invasive trees that are used by native species for habitat or food. We suggest that such conflict should be seen as a normal occurrence in invasive tree removal. Assessing both positive and negative effects of invasive species on multiple ecosystem services may provide a useful framework for the resolution of conflicts.     

The comparative growth rates of indigenous street and garden trees in Grahamstown,South Africa

Urban forestry is advocated worldwide as a means of enhancing the liveability of towns and cities, and mitigating some of the anticipated impacts of climate change. Optimisation of the benefits of trees in urban areas is dependent upon knowledge of tree form, growth, and the products and benefits that trees provide. Growth rates are a vital variable for modelling benefits, yet there is a significant gap in knowledge pertaining to growth rates of trees in urban areas, especially indigenous species in developing world countries. Here we report on growth rates of indigenous street and garden trees in Grahamstown, South Africa, using two approaches; tree ring counts on increment cores and mean rates from trees of known planting age. Growth equations for both street and garden trees were derived. There was no significant difference in mean growth rates determined via the two methods. For both methods street trees grew approximately 30% slower than trees in gardens.     

Tree planting in organic soils does not result in net carbon sequestration on decadal timescales

Tree planting is increasingly being proposed as a strategy to combat climate change through carbon (C) sequestration in tree biomass. However, total ecosystem C storage that includes soil organic C (SOC) must be considered to determine whether planting trees for climate change mitigation results in increased C storage. We show that planting two native tree species (Betula pubescens and Pinus sylvestris), of widespread Eurasian distribution, onto heather (Calluna vulgaris) moorland with podzolic and peaty podzolic soils in Scotland, did not lead to an increase in net ecosystem C stock 12 or 39 years after planting. Plots with trees had greater soil respiration and lower SOC in organic soil horizons than heather control plots. The decline in SOC cancelled out the increment in C stocks in tree biomass on decadal timescales. At all four experimental sites sampled, there was no net gain in ecosystem C stocks 12–39 years after afforestation—indeed we found a net ecosystem C loss in one of four sites with deciduous B. pubescens stands; no net gain in ecosystem C at three sites planted with B. pubescens; and no net gain at additional stands of P. sylvestris. We hypothesize that altered mycorrhizal communities and autotrophic C inputs have led to positive ‘priming’ of soil organic matter, resulting in SOC loss, constraining the benefits of tree planting for ecosystem C sequestration. The results are of direct relevance to current policies, which promote tree planting on the assumption that this will increase net ecosystem C storage and contribute to climate change mitigation. Ecosystem‐level biogeochemistry and C fluxes must be better quantified and understood before we can be assured that large‐scale tree planting in regions with considerable pre‐existing SOC stocks will have the intended policy and climate change mitigation outcomes.     

Genetic diversity loss and homogenization in urban trees: the case of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Tilia </Emphasis>× <Emphasis Type="Italic">europaea</Emphasis> in Belgium and the Netherlands

Urban trees form a vital component of sustainable cities but the use of a restricted range of species and genotypes may pose a risk to global biodiversity. Despite several studies investigating tree species diversity, intraspecific genetic diversity of urban trees remains largely unexplored. Here, we characterized the genetic diversity of Tilia?×?europaea, one of the most widely planted urban tree species in Northwest Europe. We compared the genotypic diversity of historical plantings of Tilia spp. from the 17th century with the genotypic diversity of currently available planting stock in Belgium and the Netherlands. In total, 129 trees were sampled and genotyped with 14 microsatellite loci and 150 polymorphic Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism markers. In Northwest Europe, homogenization of urban T.?×?europaea plantings already started at the 17th century. Genetic diversity within contemporary commercial planting stocks was extremely narrow and consisted mainly of two clones, sold under the name ‘Pallida’ and ‘Zwarte linde’. The genetic diversity found within the historical plantings was about four times higher than in the current commercial planting stocks. We recommend that tree nurseries should enlarge the genetic diversity of T.?×?europaea commercial planting stocks. The old clones have shown long-term disease resistance and could provide tree breeders with the valuable new genetic material. The range of available Tilia species and genotypes needs to be explored in future urban tree planning to optimize desired ecosystem services.     

Estimating the heights and diameters at breast height of trees in an urban park and along a street using mobile LiDAR

Because trees can positively influence local environments in urban ecosystems, it is important to measure their morphological characteristics, such as height and diameter at breast height (DBH). However, measuring these data for each individual tree is a time-consuming process that requires a great deal of manpower. In this study, we investigated the feasibility of using mobile LiDAR to estimate tree height and DBH along urban streets and in urban parks. We compared measurements from a mobile LiDAR unit with field measurements of tree height and DBH in urban parks and streets. The height-above-ground and Pratt circle fit methods were applied to calculate tree height and DBH, respectively. The LiDAR-estimated tree heights were highly accurate albeit slightly underestimated, with a root mean square error of 0.359 m for the street trees and 0.462 m for the park trees. On the other hand, the estimated DBHs were moderately accurate and overestimated, with a root mean square error of 3.77 cm for the street trees and 8.95 cm for the park trees. Densely planted trees in the park and obstacles in urban areas result in “shadows” (areas with no data), reducing accuracy. Irregular trunk shapes and scanned data that did not include full data point coverage of every trunk were the reasons for the errors. Despite these errors, this study highlights the potential of tree measurements obtained with mobile terrestrial LiDAR platforms to be scaled up from point-based locations to neighborhood-scale and city-scale inventories.

     

干旱区绿洲城市树木健康评估及影响因素——以乌鲁木齐市为例

树木作为城市绿色基础设施重要组分,其健康直接影响城市生态系统服务及人居环境质量。城市化进程加快导致生态土地缺失,同时缺乏合理养护加之极端自然条件干扰对树木健康造成严重威胁。为揭示城市树木健康风险及影响因素,对乌鲁木齐市核心城区117个样地绿化树木进行健康评估,从4个维度12个指标构建树木健康分级体系,基于样地调查结果,分析树木组成、结构、关联性、健康状况及影响因素,揭示乌鲁木齐市不同功能区树木健康差异。旨在为研究区树木健康保护、城市绿地可持续经营及城市生态文明建设提供理论依据和数据支撑。结果表明：（1）乌鲁木齐市城市园林树木乔灌比为8.3 ： 1,树木多样性与种间关联程度较低。榆树占比高达43.87%,其中白榆占比22.62%,是主要优势树种;（2）不同树种健康程度呈现差异性,榆树类健康状况呈现圆冠榆 > 大叶榆 > 白榆 > 垂枝榆特征;（3）城市不同功能区树木健康也呈现异质性;以公园和居住小区树木健康分值较高,而行道树和学校庭院树木健康分值相对较低,且冗余分析进一步揭示地面铺装、林木配置结构、生长空间和胸径对树木健康影响程度最为显著。未来优化城市树木生境条件、提升物种丰富度、加强古树名木保育和提高园林绿化管理水平是维护和提升绿洲城市树木健康的重要举措。     

Managing and Rehabilitating Ecosystem Processes in Regional Urban Streams in Australia

Urbanization is acknowledged as one of the most severe threats to stream health, spawning recent research efforts into methods to ameliorate these negative impacts. Attention has focused on streams in densely-populated cities but less populous regional urban centres can be equally prone to some of the same threats yet might not meet the conventional definitions of urban. Several recent reviews have identified the changes to streams that occur during urbanization but they note that few ecological studies have explored ecosystem-level responses, typically focusing instead on state variables such as invertebrate abundance. In many regional urban streams, changes to the extent of impervious drainage have implications for their hydrology and channel morphology but the influence of these changes on fundamental ecosystem processes of leaf litter breakdown and transport compared with those in nearby rural streams are poorly known. The widespread practice of planting exotic trees along riparian zones and street margins draining into urban streams further exacerbates the disruption of natural organic matter dynamics. The combination of seasonal leaf fall by exotic species and the altered drainage patterns through urbanization in Armidale, a regional town in New South Wales, Australia, resulted in contrasting patterns of benthic organic matter storage over 18 months compared to nearby reference and rural streams. Macroinvertebrate detritivore densities were low in the urban stream, implying disruption of the usual biological pathways of leaf breakdown. Understanding the interactions of hydrology, drainage pattern, leaf input and biological attributes of a stream is crucial for managers trying to restore stream ecosystem services without incurring public concern about the appearance of regional urban streams.     

城市乔木树种多样性遥感反演方法研究

量化城市乔木树种多样性是定量研究其生态系统服务的前提和基础。目前,城市树种多样性水平的定量研究以地面调查方法为主,存在效率低、成本高的问题。针对上述问题,首先验证了光谱变异性假说和生产力假说在城市中的适用性,进而提出了快速量化城市树种多样性水平的方法。该方法基于神经网络刻画了乔木斑块多样性与光谱异质性之间的关系,能够较准确地反演城市乔木的香浓维纳指数和辛普森指数。为城市乔木树种多样性的调查提供了新的思路,并将为定量研究城市乔木多样性的生态系统服务提供基础数据。     

Near‐ground solar radiation along the grassland–forest continuum: Tall‐tree canopy architecture imposes only muted trends and heterogeneity

Solar radiation directly and indirectly drives a variety of ecosystem processes. Our aim was to evaluate how tree canopy architecture affects near‐ground, incoming solar radiation along gradients of increasing tree cover, referred to as the grassland–forest continuum. We evaluated a common type of canopy architecture: tall trees that generally have their lowest level of foliage high above, rather than close to the ground as is often the case for shorter trees. We used hemispherical photographs to estimate near‐ground solar radiation using the metric of Direct Site Factor (DSF) on four sites in north Queensland, Australia that formed a grassland–forest continuum with tree canopy cover ranging from 0% to 71%. Three of the four sites had tall Eucalyptus trees with foliage several metres above the ground. We found that: (i) mean DSF exceeded >70% of the potential maximum for all sites, including the site with highest canopy cover; (ii) DSF variance was not highly sensitive to canopy coverage; and (iii) mean DSF for canopy locations beneath trees was not significantly lower than for adjacent intercanopy locations. Simulations that hypothetically placed Australian sites with tall tree canopies at other latitude–longitude locations demonstrated that differences in DSF were mostly due to canopy architecture, not specific site location effects. Our findings suggest that tall trees that have their lowest foliage many metres above the ground and have lower foliar density only weakly affect patterns of near‐ground solar radiation along the grassland–forest continuum. This markedly contrasts with the strong effect that shorter trees with foliage near the ground have on near‐ground solar radiation patterns along the continuum. This consequence of differential tree canopy architecture will fundamentally affect other ecosystem properties and may explain differential emphases that have been placed on canopy–intercanopy heterogeneity in diverse global ecosystem types that lie within the grassland–forest continuum.     

Growing the urban forest: tree performance in response to biotic and abiotic land management

Forests are vital components of the urban landscape because they provide ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, storm‐water mitigation, and air‐quality improvement. To enhance these services, cities are investing in programs to create urban forests. A major unknown, however, is whether planted trees will grow into the mature, closed‐canopied forest on which ecosystem service provision depends. We assessed the influence of biotic and abiotic land management on planted tree performance as part of urban forest restoration in New York City, U.S.A. Biotic treatments were designed to improve tree growth, with the expectation that higher tree species composition (six vs. two) and greater stand complexity (with shrubs vs. without) would facilitate tree performance. Similarly, the abiotic treatment (compost amendment vs. without) was expected to increase tree performance by improving soil conditions. Growth and survival was measured for approximately 1,300 native saplings across three growing seasons. The biotic and abiotic treatments significantly improved tree performance, where shrub presence increased tree height for five of the six tree species, and compost increased basal area and stem volume of all species. Species‐specific responses, however, highlighted the difficulty of achieving rapid growth with limited mortality. Pioneer species had the highest growth in stem volume over 3 years (up to 3,500%), but also the highest mortality (up to 40%). Mid‐successional species had lower mortality (<16%), but also the slowest growth in volume (approximately 500% in volume). Our results suggest that there will be trade‐offs between optimizing tree growth versus survival when implementing urban tree planting initiatives.     

大气污染对城市植被的生态胁迫效应综述

快速的城市化进程使得城市大气污染日趋严重,造成了城市植被的退化及其生态服务功能的下降。大气中的O₃、紫外(UV-B)辐射、重金属、SO₂等污染物及其复合污染从分子、细胞、个体、种群、群落和生态系统各个水平上都对城市植被造成了胁迫效应。本文从微观实验法和宏观高光谱遥感法两方面对已有的研究方法进行了分析和总结后,提出了以下几个今后需要关注的研究领域:开展野外和长期胁迫实验、植物受胁迫机理及多种因子复合胁迫研究等;同时指出应重视建筑物在城市大气污染生态胁迫中的重要作用,并在今后加强城市行道树相关方面的研究。     

从景感生态学视角分析城市立体绿化内涵与功能——以深圳市为例

城市用地日益紧张,城市建（构）筑物高度不断抬升,理应赋予城市空间载体更多的生态功能。景感生态学倡导在保持、改善和增加城市生态系统服务的同时提升居民满意度和可持续发展能力。城市立体绿化具有降温、降噪、滞尘、固碳等功能,是节能减排的有效举措。通过对深圳市立体绿化实地调查和景感生态学分析,剖析了立体绿化在促进居民的视觉、听觉、嗅觉、味觉及触觉等物理感知及心理认知功能方面的作用,以及增强城市生态系统服务的机理。研究表明,立体绿化是城市景感营造的有效手段,既能增强城市生态系统服务价值,也能提高城市空间利用率;在增加城市绿视率的同时,丰富了居民的物理感知及心理认知。最后,讨论了景感生态学理论与方法在立体绿化中的实际应用,以及景感营造技术在城市绿色建筑中的作用,以期让景感营造技术为提升立体绿化水平,进而为促进城市绿地系统规划提供支撑。     

Conserving insect assemblages in urban landscapes: accounting for species-specific responses and imperfect detection

Understanding how global environmental change impacts insect biodiversity is central to the core principals of conservation biology. To preserve the ecosystem services provided by insects in cities, it is crucial to understand how insect species are influenced by the degree of urbanization of the surrounding landscape. Using a hierarchical occupancy–detection model, we estimated the effect of urbanization on heteropteran bug species richness and occupancy, an approach that concurrently accounts for species-specific responses and imperfect detection. We found that species richness decreased along a gradient of increasing urbanization. This trend corresponded well with species-specific trends, as approximately two-thirds of all herbivores and predatory species experienced a strong mean negative response to urbanization. These results indicate that many species are potentially at risk of local extinction as cities grow and expand in the future. A second group of species, however, showed a weak mean negative response, indicating that they are ubiquitous urban species that thrive regardless of the surrounding degree of urban disturbance. Our research suggests that as cities develop, many of the species that are currently present will become less likely to occur, and therefore assemblages in the future are likely to become more simplified. In order to preserve or increase insect biological diversity in cities, it is critical to understand how individual species are influenced by urbanization. Our finding that insects display species-specific responses to urbanization has important repercussions for decision makers charged with preserving and improving urban biodiversity and the deliverance of ecosystem services in cities.