The effect of static and dynamic spatially structured disturbances on a locally dispersing population

Previous models of locally dispersing populations have shown that in the presence of spatially structured fixed habitat heterogeneity, increasing local spatial autocorrelation in habitat generally has a beneficial effect on such populations, increasing equilibrium population density. It has also been shown that with large-scale disturbance events which simultaneously affect contiguous blocks of sites, increasing spatial autocorrelation in the disturbances has a harmful effect, decreasing equilibrium population density. Here, spatial population models are developed which include both of these spatially structured exogenous influences, to determine how they interact with each other and with the endogenously generated spatial structure produced by the population dynamics. The models show that when habitat is fragmented and disturbance occurs at large spatial scales, the population cannot persist no matter how large its birth rate, an effect not seen in previous simpler models of this type. The behavior of the model is also explored when the local autocorrelation of habitat heterogeneity and disturbance events are equal, i.e. the two effects occur at the same spatial scale. When this scale parameter is very small, habitat fragmentation prevents the population from persisting because sites attempting to reproduce will drop most of their offspring on unsuitable sites; when the parameter is very large, large-scale disturbance events drive the population to extinction. Population levels reach their maximum at intermediate values of the scale parameter, and the critical values in the model show that the population will persist most easily at these intermediate scales of spatial influences. The models are investigated via spatially explicit stochastic simulations, traditional (infinite-dispersal) and improved (local-dispersal) mean-field approximations, and pair approximations.     

The effects of grassland management using fire on habitat occupancy and conservation of birds in a mosaic landscape

Prescribed burning is routinely used to improve grazing in Pyrenean rangelands affected by an overall trend of land abandonment. This study considers the environmental variables influencing habitat occupancy by birds and the consequences of the use of fire in range management for bird conservation. Bird use and habitat structure of 11 cover types, the result of specific management regimes, were monitored for two breeding seasons in a mosaic landscape. Three main gradients of avian composition, corresponding to tree cover, shrub volume and grazing intensity, were identified from canonical correspondence analysis. The structure of the bird community seemed more intensely affected by species-specific selection of cover types than by the birds' use of multiple patches. Out of a total of 10 bird species analysed by a simultaneous confidence intervals procedure, four species with an unfavourable conservation status in Europe (Emberiza cia, Lullula arborea, Saxicola torquata and Lanius collurio) preferred managed grassland. Three types of grassland with shrubs (derived from single or repeated burning) had the highest bird conservation index (taking into account specific status and abundance of the bird assemblage), whereas forests showed middle or low values. The relation (P = 0.054) of this index to the logarithm of the pastoral value (which includes density and grazing quality of grasses) in currently managed cover types suggests that the objectives of grassland recovery by appropriate management practices and those of bird conservation coincide in our study area.     

The effects of plant dispersion and prey density on parasitism rates in a naturally patchy habitat

Despite extensive research on parasitoid-prey interactions and especially the effects of heterogeneity in parasitism on stability, sources of heterogeneity other than prey density have been little investigated. This research examines parasitism rates by three parasitoid species in relationship to prey density and habitat spatial pattern. The herbivore Itame andersoni (Geometridae) inhabits a subdivided habitat created by patches of its host plant, Dryas drummondii, in the Wrangell Mountains of Alaska. Dryas colonizes glacial moraines and spreads clonally to form distinct patches. Habitat subdivision occurs both on the patch scale and on the larger spatial scale of sites due to patchy successional patterns. Itame is attacked by three parasitoids: an ichneumonid wasp (Campoletis sp.), a braconid wasp (Aleiodes n. sp.), and the tachinid fly (Phyrxe pecosensis). I performed a large survey study at five distinct sites and censused Itame density and parasitism rates in 206 plant patches for 1–3 years. Parasitism rates varied with both plant patch size and isolation and also between sites, and the highest rates of overall parasitism were in the smallest patches. However, the effects of both small- and large-scale heterogeneity on parasitism differed for the three parasitoid species. There was weak evidence that Itame density was positively correlated with parasitism for the braconid and tachinid at the patch scale, but density effects differed for different patch sizes, patch isolations, and sites. At the site scale, there was no evidence of positive, but some indication of negative density-dependent parasitism. These patterns do not appear to be driven by negative interactions between the three parasitoid species, but reflect, rather, individual differences in habitat use and response to prey density. Finally, there was no evidence that parasitism strongly impacted the population dynamics of Itame. These results demonstrate the importance of considering habitat pattern when examining spatial heterogeneity of parasitism and the impacts of parasitoids. Received: 3 June 1999 / Accepted: 4 October 1999     

Population dynamics in a long-lived seabird: I. Impact of breeding activity on survival and breeding probability in unbanded king penguins

Understanding the trade-off between current reproductive effort, future survival and future breeding attempts is crucial for demographic analyses and life history studies. We investigated this trade-off in a population of king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) marked individually with transponders using multistate capture-recapture models. This colonial seabird species has a low annual proportion of non-breeders (13%), despite a breeding cycle which lasts over 1 year. To draw inferences about the consequences of non-breeding, we tested for an effect of reproductive activity on survival and on the probability of subsequent breeding. We found that birds non-breeding in year t show the same survival rate as breeders (two-states analysis: breeding and non-breeding). However, breeders had a lower probability of breeding again the following year. This negative phenotypic correlation suggests the existence of reproductive costs affecting future breeding probability, but it might also be strengthened by late arrival for courtship in year t. A three-state analysis including breeding success revealed that failed breeders in year t have a lower probability to reproduce successfully in year t + 1 than non-breeders in year t, providing some evidence for the existence of reproductive costs. Moreover, successful breeders showed higher survival probability. This positive phenotypic correlation between current reproduction and subsequent survival supports the hypothesis of an heterogeneity in individual quality. Males breeding in year t had a lower probability to breed again in year t + 1 than females, suggesting higher reproductive costs for this sex. Such additional costs might be due to higher male parental investment in the final phase of chick-rearing, which also delays the arrival of males in year t + 1, and decreases their breeding probability. Our study is the first to explore the breeding biology and the demography of penguins without the disturbance of flipper-bands.     

The effect of habitat type on speciation rates and range movements in aquatic beetles: inferences from species-level phylogenies

Most aquatic beetles in the family Dytiscidae are tightly associated either with running (lotic) or stagnant (lentic) water bodies. The range size of lotic species is known to be, on average, much smaller than that of lentic species, presumably as a result of differences in dispersal strategies in each habitat type. We explored possible effects of these differences on clade evolution and speciation rates by comparing species-level phylogenies based on cytochrome oxidase I (COI) and 16S rRNA mitochondrial genes for two genera, the lentic Ilybius and the lotic Deronectes. The expectation that species turnover is higher in lotic lineages due to their lower dispersal propensity compared to lentic species was not strongly supported. Deronectes displays a higher frequency of recent splits than Ilybius, consistent with the hypothesis, but the difference was not significant compared to expected patterns under a constant speciation rate null model. Similarly, when the degree of sympatry was plotted against relative node age, more allopatric splits were evident in the lentic Deronectes, suggesting a slower rate of range movement since speciation, but the differences were not significant. We discuss two explanations for our failure to detect differences between the two clades. First, current methods for analysing species-level phylogenies may be sensitive to taxonomic and sampling artefacts. Second, lentic and lotic clades may indeed display similar levels of species turnover despite occupying very different habitats at different spatial scales. More work is needed to investigate the effects of population level processes and spatial scale on macroevolutionary dynamics.     

基于个体的空间显性模型和遥感技术模拟入侵植物扩张机制

基于个体的空间显性模型和遥感技术,以互花米草为例,模拟了自1997到2010年的种群扩张动态,揭示了土地利用变化与潮间带高程的影响;并通过全局敏感性分析揭示了种子扩散、成体存活率、有性和无性繁殖等种群统计学特征对互花米草种群扩张的相对重要性。研究结果发现:1)有性繁殖与无性繁殖共同决定互花米草种群快速扩张;2)潮间带高程和土地利用变化显著影响模型预测的精度,对互花米草种群扩张有非常重要的影响;3)成体存活率与种子长距离扩散是影响互花米草种群扩张速度最重要的因素;无性繁殖比有性繁殖对种群扩张的影响更大;种子长距离扩散比本地扩散更为重要,同时,小概率的种子长距离扩散事件对种群扩张有非常重要的影响。为了经济有效地控制外来入侵植物的扩张,应该抑制种子的长距离扩散和移除种子长距离扩散形成的位于入侵前沿的小斑块。     

A method of determining rooting depth from a terrestrial biosphere model and its impacts on the global water and carbon cycle

We outline a method of inferring rooting depth from a Terrestrial Biosphere Model by maximizing the benefit of the vegetation within the model. This corresponds to the evolutionary principle that vegetation has adapted to make best use of its local environment. We demonstrate this method with a simple coupled biosphere/soil hydrology model and find that deep rooted vegetation is predicted in most parts of the tropics. Even with a simple model like the one we use, it is possible to reproduce biome averages of observations fairly well. By using the optimized rooting depths global Annual Net Primary Production (and transpiration) increases substantially compared to a standard rooting depth of one meter, especially in tropical regions that have a dry season. The decreased river discharge due to the enhanced evaporation complies better with observations. We also found that the optimization process is primarily driven by the water deficit/surplus during the dry/wet season for humid and arid regions, respectively. Climate variability further enhances rooting depth estimates. In a sensitivity analysis where we simulate changes in the water use efficiency of the vegetation we find that vegetation with an optimized rooting depth is less vulnerable to variations in the forcing. We see the main application of this method in the modelling communities of land surface schemes of General Circulation Models and of global Terrestrial Biosphere Models. We conclude that in these models, the increased soil water storage is likely to have a significant impact on the simulated climate and the carbon budget, respectively. Also, effects of land use change like tropical deforestation are likely to be larger than previously thought.     

基于土地利用变化的黄土丘陵区生境质量时空演变特征——以榆中县为例

生境质量是生态系统服务水平的重要表征,是区域生态安全保障和人类福祉提升的关键环节,评估土地利用变化引起的生境质量时空演变可为区域生态保护和土地管理提供科学依据。以典型黄土丘陵区县域——榆中县为例,基于Arc GIS平台和InVEST模型探讨了该县1995、2005和2015年生境质量空间格局及其演变特征。结论如下:(1)研究区土地类型和景观格局变化明显,主要土地利用变化是耕地转向建设用地和林地,以及草地和耕地之间的相互转变,这些变化导致景观异质性增强和破碎度上升。(2)生境质量空间格局一直表现为"南部高、中部居中、北部低"的态势。生境质量上升区域主要在北部,原因是"退耕还林"及"生态北山"工程的实施使得林地面积增加,下降区域主要在中部,主要是由建设用地扩张占用耕地造成的。(3)生境质量热点以及"H-H"型聚集区主要位于南部山区,而冷点和"L-L"聚集区主要位于北部黄土丘陵区,2015年生境质量空间集聚程度较1995年有所增强,"H-H"聚集区增加0.68%,"L-L"聚集区增加0.67%。对该类型区域生境质量优化提出了相应的政策建议。     

Clonal plants in a spatially heterogeneous environment: effects of integration on Serengeti grassland response to defoliation and urine-hits from grazing mammals

It has been hypothesized that clonal integration between ramets inenvironments with spatially variable rates of herbivory and nutrientavailabilities leads to increased growth and fitness in the genet. An increasein genet growth could potentially influence ecosystem processes such as primaryproductivity and nutrient cycling. I tested the idea that clonal integrationwould lead to greater aboveground productivity, compensatory response todefoliation, and N re-distribution in a factorial experiment in fieldplots in the Serengeti Ecosystem, Tanzania. Each plot had either all stolonssevered or left intact, had repeated defoliation (to simulate grazing bythe African buffalo) or none, and was either located next to a plot thatreceived urea (to simulate a urine-hit) or next to a plot thatremained untreated. Plots that received stolon severing treatments had32% less peak biomass than did connected control plots, and this suggeststhat plants grew better when ramets remained connected. However, compensatoryresponse by plots to repeated defoliation was inconsistent with the hypothesizedbenefits of ramet integration at the ecosystem level: productivityresponse to defoliation was similar between plots with connected vs. severedramets (i.e. no stolon severing × defoliation interaction wasfound). When averaged across other treatments, defoliated plots hadincreased productivity compared to nondefoliated plots during the growingseason. Thus, ramet connection and defoliation did increase productivity whenthey were considered alone, but productivity response to defoliation wasunaffected by ramet connections. Urea additions, which led to a 78%increase in productivity in adjacent urine-hits, had noconsistent effect on productivity but did increase leaf percent N in adjoiningstudy plots. Thus, in the Serengeti, urine hits probably have very localizedeffects on productivity during the initial growing season.     

The effect of habitat fragmentation on dispersal patterns, mating behavior, and genetic variation in a pika (Ochotona princeps) metapopulation

 Habitat fragmentation is becoming increasingly common, yet, the effect of habitat spatial structure on population dynamics remains undetermined for most species. Populations of a single species found in fragmented and nonfragmented habitat present a rare opportunity to examine the effect of habitat spatial structure on population dynamics. This study investigates the impact of highly fragmented habitat on dispersal patterns, mating behavior, and genetic variation in a pika (Ochotona princeps) population with a mainland-island spatial structure. Juvenile dispersal patterns in fragmented habitat revealed that individuals tended to disperse to neighboring habitat patches. However, within-patch band-sharing scores from multilocus DNA fingerprints did not differ from what would be expected if individuals were assorting randomly among habitat patches each year. Multiple, short-distance dispersal targets for juveniles and occasional long-distance dispersal events suggest that habitat fragmentation on this scale has not resulted in restricted dispersal and a genetically subdivided population. Although pikas tended to mate with the closest available partner, DNA fingerprinting band-sharing scores between mated pairs were consistent with a random mating hypothesis. Random mating in this population appears to be an incidental effect of dispersal in a fragmented habitat. This pattern is distinct from that found in nonfragmented habitat (large talus patches) where mating was non-random and consistent with mating between individuals of intermediate relatedness. DNA fingerprinting data revealed within-species variation in the mating habits of the pika directly attributable to habitat spatial structure. Received: 4 November 1996 / Accepted: 30 June 1997     

基于过程模型的2000-2018年中国陆地生态系统服务时空动态及其权衡与协同分析

2000年以来,中国陆地生态系统经历了剧烈变化并显著改变了生态系统服务。深入理解近20年中国陆地生态系统服务的时空演变格局及其权衡与协同关系对生态系统管理和可持续发展具有重要的理论和实践意义。基于最新发展的遥感驱动的生态系统服务评估过程模型(CEVSA-ES),研究定量评估了2000—2018年中国4种生态系统服务(即净初级生产力、固碳、蓄水及土壤保持)的时空格局及其权衡与协同关系。结果发现：(1)净初级生产力、固碳、蓄水及土壤保持等服务在2018的全国总量分别为3.68 Pg C/a、0.43 Pg C/a、1015.71 km³/a 208.18 Gt/a;东部季风区的生态系统服务显著高于西北内陆地区及青藏高原地区,特别是热带-亚热带地区主导了中国生态系统服务供给,其对全国尺度不同生态系统服务总量的贡献率均高于50%;(2)2000—2018年,全国净初级生产力、固碳、蓄水及土壤保持均呈增加趋势,年际变化速率分别为42.80 Tg C/a、13.42 Tg C/a、11.90 km³/a、1.11 Gt/a,其中净初级生产力、固碳、蓄水呈...     

延安中尺度研究区土壤侵蚀特征与生态环境建设模式

通过详细野外调查、定位监测及解译1／50000黑白航片,同时参考研究区地面坡度组成、土地利用、土地类型、植被类型及重点流域水土保持综合成果与规划等图件,在完成延安中尺度研究区1162km^2土壤侵蚀类型图编制基础上,对延安中尺度区域土壤侵蚀特征、水土保持生态环境建设成就、存在问题、模式进行了研究,并提出延安水土保持生态环境建设的阶段目标与技术体系。     

The effect of hydrogel injection on cardiac function and myocardial mechanics in a computational post-infarction model

An emerging therapy to limit adverse heart remodelling following myocardial infarction (MI) is the injection of polymers into the infarcted left ventricle (LV). In the few numerical studies carried out in this field, the definition and distribution of the hydrogel in the infarcted myocardium were simplified. In this computational study, a more realistic biomaterial distribution was simulated after which the effect on cardiac function and mechanics was studied. A validated finite element heart model was used in which an antero-apical infarct was defined. Four infarct models were created representing different temporal phases in the progression of a MI. Hydrogel layers were simulated in the infarcted myocardium in each model. Biomechanical and functional improvement of the LV was found after hydrogel inclusion in the ischaemic models representing the early phases of MI. In contrast, only functional but no mechanical restitution was shown in the scar model due to hydrogel presence.     

A model to predict and assess the impacts of hydrologic changes on terrestrial ecosystems in The Netherlands,and its use in a climate scenario

Current water management policy in The Netherlands aims to serve a multitude of land use functions, such as agriculture, industry, shipping, and drinking water supply. To attune this policy to the diversity of functions, computer models are used to predict the consequences of various policy options as a part of PAWN: the government's Policy Analysis of Water management for The Netherlands.Nature conservation and development is a relatively new aspect of water management policy. This article describes the PAWN model DEMNAT, which is designed to predict the impact of hydrologic changes on terrestrial ecosystems in The Netherlands. The main components of the model are explained and the predicted effects of an assumed climatic change are discussed.     

The effect of climate change on the occurrence and prevalence of livestock diseases in Great Britain: a review

There is strong evidence to suggest that climate change has, and will continue to affect the occurrence, distribution and prevalence of livestock diseases in Great Britain (GB). This paper reviews how climate change could affect livestock diseases in GB. Factors influenced by climate change and that could affect livestock diseases include the molecular biology of the pathogen itself; vectors (if any); farming practice and land use; zoological and environmental factors; and the establishment of new microenvironments and microclimates. The interaction of these factors is an important consideration in forecasting how livestock diseases may be affected. Risk assessments should focus on looking for combinations of factors that may be directly affected by climate change, or that may be indirectly affected through changes in human activity, such as land use (e.g. deforestation), transport and movement of animals, intensity of livestock farming and habitat change. A risk assessment framework is proposed, based on modules that accommodate these factors. This framework could be used to screen for the emergence of unexpected disease events.     

陕北半干旱区沟垄覆膜集水模式下糜子边际效应及生理特性

通过连续3年大田定位试验,研究了陕北半干旱区不同沟垄覆膜集水模式下糜子边际效应和生理特性.试验设4种不同的沟垄宽度(带型),垄∶沟分别为40 cm∶40 cm(P₄₀)、60 cm∶60 cm(P₆₀)、80 cm∶80 cm(P₈₀)、100 cm∶100 cm(P₁₀₀),对照为露地平播(NM).结果表明: 随着沟垄宽度的增大,糜子的产量边际效应指数和边际效应增大,边行的增产作用呈上升趋势,最大增产率达207.7%,而中行的增产作用呈下降趋势,增产幅度最低仅为103%.带型60 cm∶60 cm的糜子产量在3年中均为最高.同一处理内,边行对糜子产量的贡献率大于中行,差异达到显著水平.不同带型边行的叶绿素含量、Chl a/Chl b、光合速率均大于中行;沟垄宽度越大,边行的光合能力越强,中行的光合能力越弱.带型60 cm∶60 cm是陕北半干旱区糜子种植的适宜带型.     

The effects of archipelago spatial structure on island diversity and endemism: predictions from a spatially‐structured neutral model

Islands are particularly suited to testing hypotheses about the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms underpinning community assembly. Yet the complex spatial arrangements of real island systems have received little attention from both empirical studies and theoretical models. Here, we investigate the extent to which the spatial structure of archipelagos affects species diversity and endemism. We start by proposing a new spatially structured neutral model that explicitly considers archipelago structure, and then investigate its predictions under a diversity of scenarios. Our results suggest that considering the spatial structure of archipelagos is crucial to understanding their diversity and endemism, with structured island systems acting both as “museums” and “cradles” of biodiversity. These dynamics of diversification may change the traditionally expected pattern of decrease in species richness with distance from the mainland, even potentially leading to increasing patterns for taxa with high speciation rates in archipelagos off species‐poor continental areas. Our results also predict that, within spatially structured archipelagos, metapopulation dynamics and evolutionary processes can generate higher diversity on islands more centrally placed than at the periphery. We derive from our results a set of theoretical predictions, potentially testable with empirical data.