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1.
Vaccination is one of the most efficient ways to control the spread of infectious diseases. Simulations are now widely used to assess how vaccination can limit disease spread as well as mitigate morbidity or mortality in susceptible populations. However, field studies investigating how much vaccines decrease the velocity of epizootic wave-fronts during outbreaks are rare. This study aimed at investigating the effect of vaccination on the propagation of bluetongue, a vector-borne disease of ruminants. We used data from the 2008 bluetongue virus serotype 1 (BTV-1) epizootic of southwest France. As the virus was newly introduced in this area, natural immunity of livestock was absent. This allowed determination of the role of vaccination in changing the velocity of bluetongue spread while accounting for environmental factors that possibly influenced it. The average estimated velocity across the country despite restriction on animal movements was 5.4 km/day, which is very similar to the velocity of spread of the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epizootic in France also estimated in a context of restrictions on animal movements. Vaccination significantly reduced the propagation velocity of BTV-1. In comparison to municipalities with no vaccine coverage, the velocity of BTV-1 spread decreased by 1.7 km/day in municipalities with immunized animals. For the first time, the effect of vaccination has been quantified using data from a real epizootic whilst accounting for environmental factors known to modify the velocity of bluetongue spread. Our findings emphasize the importance of vaccination in limiting disease spread across natural landscape. Finally, environmental factors, specifically those related to vector abundance and activity, were found to be good predictors of the velocity of BTV-1 spread, indicating that these variables need to be adequately accounted for when evaluating the role of vaccination on bluetongue spread.  相似文献   

2.
Avian influenza virus-infected poultry can release a large amount of virus-contaminated droppings that serve as sources of infection for susceptible birds. Much research so far has focused on virus spread within flocks. However, as fecal material or manure is a major constituent of airborne poultry dust, virus-contaminated particulate matter from infected flocks may be dispersed into the environment. We collected samples of suspended particulate matter, or the inhalable dust fraction, inside, upwind and downwind of buildings holding poultry infected with low-pathogenic avian influenza virus, and tested them for the presence of endotoxins and influenza virus to characterize the potential impact of airborne influenza virus transmission during outbreaks at commercial poultry farms. Influenza viruses were detected by RT-PCR in filter-rinse fluids collected up to 60 meters downwind from the barns, but virus isolation did not yield any isolates. Viral loads in the air samples were low and beyond the limit of RT-PCR quantification except for one in-barn measurement showing a virus concentration of 8.48x104 genome copies/m3. Air samples taken outside poultry barns had endotoxin concentrations of ~50 EU/m3 that declined with increasing distance from the barn. Atmospheric dispersion modeling of particulate matter, using location-specific meteorological data for the sampling days, demonstrated a positive correlation between endotoxin measurements and modeled particulate matter concentrations, with an R2 varying from 0.59 to 0.88. Our data suggest that areas at high risk for human or animal exposure to airborne influenza viruses can be modeled during an outbreak to allow directed interventions following targeted surveillance.  相似文献   

3.

Background

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses have had devastating effects on poultry industries worldwide, and there is concern about the potential for HPAI outbreaks in the poultry industry in Great Britain (GB). Critical to the potential for HPAI to spread between poultry premises are the connections made between farms by movements related to human activity. Movement records of catching teams and slaughterhouse vehicles were obtained from a large catching company, and these data were used in a simulation model of HPAI spread between farms serviced by the catching company, and surrounding (geographic) areas. The spread of HPAI through real-time movements was modelled, with the addition of spread via company personnel and local transmission.

Results

The model predicted that although large outbreaks are rare, they may occur, with long distances between infected premises. Final outbreak size was most sensitive to the probability of spread via slaughterhouse-linked movements whereas the probability of onward spread beyond an index premises was most sensitive to the frequency of company personnel movements.

Conclusions

Results obtained from this study show that, whilst there is the possibility that HPAI virus will jump from one cluster of farms to another, movements made by catching teams connected fewer poultry premises in an outbreak situation than slaughterhouses and company personnel. The potential connection of a large number of infected farms, however, highlights the importance of retaining up-to-date data on poultry premises so that control measures can be effectively prioritised in an outbreak situation.  相似文献   

4.
Two diseases of Oryctes rhinoceros caused by Metarrhizium anisopliae and a virus were introduced from Western Samoa into Tongatapu, Kingdom of Tonga, in 1969 and 1970, respectively. The fungus remained at a low incidence and did not significantly affect the beetle population. The virus disease developed to epizootic levels within 5 months and spread across the island in 15 months. The beetle population was monitored through palm damage surveys, which confirmed that the population was considerably reduced by the disease.The greater impact of the virus was attributed to its much higher power of dispersal through infected beetles.The experiment supports the view that the reduction in beetle numbers recorded previously in Western Samoa was caused by a virus epizootic.  相似文献   

5.
Estimates of the per-contact probability of transmission between farms of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus of H7N7 subtype during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands are important for the design of better control and biosecurity strategies. We used standardized data collected during the epidemic and a model to extract data for untraced contacts based on the daily number of infectious farms within a given distance of a susceptible farm. With these data, we used a maximum likelihood estimation approach to estimate the transmission probabilities by the individual contact types, both traced and untraced. The estimated conditional probabilities, conditional on the contact originating from an infectious farm, of virus transmission were: 0.000057 per infectious farm within 1 km per day, 0.000413 per infectious farm between 1 and 3 km per day, 0.0000895 per infectious farm between 3 and 10 km per day, 0.0011 per crisis organisation contact, 0.0414 per feed delivery contact, 0.308 per egg transport contact, 0.133 per other-professional contact and, 0.246 per rendering contact. We validate these outcomes against literature data on virus genetic sequences for outbreak farms. These estimates can be used to inform further studies on the role that improved biosecurity between contacts and/or contact frequency reduction can play in eliminating between-farm spread of the virus during future epidemics. The findings also highlight the need to; 1) understand the routes underlying the infections without traced contacts and, 2) to review whether the contact-tracing protocol is exhaustive in relation to all the farm's day-to-day activities and practices.  相似文献   

6.
Phylogenetic studies have largely contributed to better understand the emergence, spread and evolution of highly pathogenic avian influenza during epidemics, but sampling of genetic data has never been detailed enough to allow mapping of the spatiotemporal spread of avian influenza viruses during a single epidemic. Here, we present genetic data of H7N7 viruses produced from 72% of the poultry farms infected during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands. We use phylogenetic analyses to unravel the pathways of virus transmission between farms and between infected areas. In addition, we investigated the evolutionary processes shaping viral genetic diversity, and assess how they could have affected our phylogenetic analyses. Our results show that the H7N7 virus was characterized by a high level of genetic diversity driven mainly by a high neutral substitution rate, purifying selection and limited positive selection. We also identified potential reassortment in the three genes that we have tested, but they had only a limited effect on the resolution of the inter-farm transmission network. Clonal sequencing analyses performed on six farm samples showed that at least one farm sample presented very complex virus diversity and was probably at the origin of chronological anomalies in the transmission network. However, most virus sequences could be grouped within clearly defined and chronologically sound clusters of infection and some likely transmission events between farms located 0.8-13 Km apart were identified. In addition, three farms were found as most likely source of virus introduction in distantly located new areas. These long distance transmission events were likely facilitated by human-mediated transport, underlining the need for strict enforcement of biosafety measures during outbreaks. This study shows that in-depth genetic analysis of virus outbreaks at multiple scales can provide critical information on virus transmission dynamics and can be used to increase our capacity to efficiently control epidemics.  相似文献   

7.
The spread of plague epizootics in areas with natural plague foci, including Rhombomys opimus settlements, is usually studied in the course of annual epizootiological observations. Direct studies on the structure of epizootics and parameters of their spread are labor-intensive and, therefore, rare. Nevertheless, a number of authors have performed such studies using different methods, which made it possible to accumulate a certain factual material. This material has provided a basis for a computer model of the epizootic process in R. opimus settlements with interactively adjustable parameters. Mathematically, the model is based on a probabilistic cellular automation. The model conceptually deals with the same types of settlements as in nature: settlements with acute development of the disease, settlements with a certain proportion of immune individuals among rodents, and those not affected by an epizootic and representing a reserve for its further development. The groups of colonies (microfoci) separated from each other and unevenly distributed in the working space of the model are clearly distinguished. The epizootic process in the working space of the model shows more or less ordered cyclic fluctuations, which resemble the curve of epizootic activity in nature, and advances at a rate of 150 m to 1.5 km per 1.7–2.7 months, which well agrees with parameters recorded in field experiments with isotope-tagged animals and in the course of direct observations on the epizootic process in nature Thus, the main characteristics of the model epizootic process are quantitatively and qualitatively close to its natural analogue, which is evidence that the proposed model is conceptually correct and adequate.  相似文献   

8.
A quantitative understanding of the spread of contaminated farm dust between locations is a prerequisite for obtaining much-needed insight into one of the possible mechanisms of disease spread between farms. Here, we develop a model to calculate the quantity of contaminated farm-dust particles deposited at various locations downwind of a source farm and apply the model to assess the possible contribution of the wind-borne route to the transmission of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus (HPAI) during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands. The model is obtained from a Gaussian Plume Model by incorporating the dust deposition process, pathogen decay, and a model for the infection process on exposed farms. Using poultry- and avian influenza-specific parameter values we calculate the distance-dependent probability of between-farm transmission by this route. A comparison between the transmission risk pattern predicted by the model and the pattern observed during the 2003 epidemic reveals that the wind-borne route alone is insufficient to explain the observations although it could contribute substantially to the spread over short distance ranges, for example, explaining 24% of the transmission over distances up to 25 km.  相似文献   

9.
The south-central skunk rabies virus (SCSK) is the most broadly distributed terrestrial viral lineage in North America. Skunk rabies has not been efficiently targeted by oral vaccination campaigns and represents a natural system of pathogen invasion, yielding insights to rabies emergence. In the present study we reconstructed spatiotemporal spread of SCSK in the whole territory of its circulation using a combination of Bayesian methods. The analysis based on 241 glycoprotein gene sequences demonstrated that SCSK is much more divergent phylogenetically than was appreciated previously. According to our analyses the SCSK originated in the territory of Texas ~170 years ago, and spread geographically during the following decades. The wavefront velocity in the northward direction was significantly greater than in the eastward and westward directions. Rivers (except the Mississippi River and Rio Grande River) did not constitute significant barriers for epizootic spread, in contrast to deserts and mountains. The mean dispersal rate of skunk rabies was lower than that of the raccoon and fox rabies. Viral lineages circulate in their areas with limited evidence of geographic spread during decades. However, spatiotemporal reconstruction shows that after a long period of stability the dispersal rate and wavefront velocity of SCSK are increasing. Our results indicate that there is a need to develop control measures for SCSK, and suggest how such measure can be implemented most efficiently. Our approach can be extrapolated to other rabies reservoirs and used as a tool for investigation of epizootic patterns and planning interventions towards disease elimination.  相似文献   

10.
The ecological impact of parasite transmission from fish farms is probably mediated by the migration of wild fishes, which determines the period of exposure to parasites. For Pacific salmon and the parasitic sea louse, Lepeophtheirus salmonis, analysis of the exposure period may resolve conflicting observations of epizootic mortality in field studies and parasite rejection in experiments. This is because exposure periods can differ by 2–3 orders of magnitude, ranging from months in the field to hours in experiments. We developed a mathematical model of salmon–louse population dynamics, parametrized by a study that monitored naturally infected juvenile salmon held in ocean enclosures. Analysis of replicated trials indicates that lice suffer high mortality, particularly during pre-adult stages. The model suggests louse populations rapidly decline following brief exposure of juvenile salmon, similar to laboratory study designs and data. However, when the exposure period lasts for several weeks, as occurs when juvenile salmon migrate past salmon farms, the model predicts that lice accumulate to abundances that can elevate salmon mortality and depress salmon populations. The duration of parasite exposure is probably critical to salmon–louse population dynamics, and should therefore be accommodated in coastal planning and management where fish farms are situated on wild fish migration routes.  相似文献   

11.
ABSTRACT In west-central Texas, USA, abatement efforts for the gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) rabies epizootic illustrate the difficulties inherent in large-scale management of wildlife disease. The rabies epizootic has been managed through a cooperative oral rabies vaccination program (ORV) since 1996. Millions of edible baits containing a rabies vaccine have been distributed annually in a 16-km to 24-km zone around the perimeter of the epizootic, which encompasses a geographic area >4 × 105 km2. The ORV program successfully halted expansion of the epizootic into metropolitan areas but has not achieved the ultimate goal of eradication. Rabies activity in gray fox continues to occur periodically outside the ORV zone, preventing ORV zone contraction and dissipation of the epizootic. We employed a landscape-genetic approach to assess gray fox population structure and dispersal in the affected area, with the aim of assisting rabies management efforts. No unique genetic clusters or population boundaries were detected. Instead, foxes were weakly structured over the entire region in an isolation by distance pattern. Local subpopulations appeared to be genetically non-independent over distances >30 km, implying that long-distance movements or dispersal may have been common in the region. We concluded that gray foxes in west-central Texas have a high potential for long-distance rabies virus trafficking. Thus, a 16-km to 24-km ORV zone may be too narrow to contain the fox rabies epizootic. Continued expansion of the ORV zone, although costly, may be critical to the long-term goal of eliminating the Texas fox rabies virus variant from the United States.  相似文献   

12.
A simple mathematical model for the spatial spread of rabies is presented. It models the dynamics of the front of an epizootic wave. We show how the model can be used to estimate the minimum width (in kilometers) of a break, that is, a region in which a control scheme is employed in order to stop the spatial progression of the rabies wave front. A simple expression is derived for the surviving fox population, after the passage of the epizootic, in terms of measurable parameters of the model.  相似文献   

13.
A reaction–diffusion model for the spatial spread of West Nile virus is developed and analysed. Infection dynamics are based on a modified version of a model for cross infection between birds and mosquitoes (Wonham et al., 2004, An epidemiological model for West-Nile virus: Invasion analysis and control application. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 271), and diffusion terms describe movement of birds and mosquitoes. Working with a simplified version of the model, the cooperative nature of cross-infection dynamics is utilized to prove the existence of traveling waves and to calculate the spatial spread rate of infection. Comparison theorem results are used to show that the spread rate of the simplified model may provide an upper bound for the spread rate of a more realistic and complex version of the model.  相似文献   

14.
Devastating epidemics of highly contagious animal diseases such as avian influenza, classical swine fever, and foot-and-mouth disease underline the need for improved understanding of the factors promoting the spread of these pathogens. Here the authors present a spatial analysis of the between-farm transmission of a highly pathogenic H7N7 avian influenza virus that caused a large epidemic in The Netherlands in 2003. The authors developed a method to estimate key parameters determining the spread of highly transmissible animal diseases between farms based on outbreak data. The method allows for the identification of high-risk areas for propagating spread in an epidemiologically underpinned manner. A central concept is the transmission kernel, which determines the probability of pathogen transmission from infected to uninfected farms as a function of interfarm distance. The authors show how an estimate of the transmission kernel naturally provides estimates of the critical farm density and local reproduction numbers, which allows one to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies. For avian influenza, the analyses show that there are two poultry-dense areas in The Netherlands where epidemic spread is possible, and in which local control measures are unlikely to be able to halt an unfolding epidemic. In these regions an epidemic can only be brought to an end by the depletion of susceptible farms by infection or massive culling. The analyses provide an estimate of the spatial range over which highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses spread between farms, and emphasize that control measures aimed at controlling such outbreaks need to take into account the local density of farms.  相似文献   

15.
Migratory and resident hosts have been hypothesized to fulfil distinct roles in infectious disease dynamics. However, the contribution of resident and migratory hosts to wildlife infectious disease epidemiology, including that of low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV) in wild birds, has largely remained unstudied. During an autumn H3 LPAIV epizootic in free-living mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) — a partially migratory species — we identified resident and migratory host populations using stable hydrogen isotope analysis of flight feathers. We investigated the role of migratory and resident hosts separately in the introduction and maintenance of H3 LPAIV during the epizootic. To test this we analysed (i) H3 virus kinship, (ii) temporal patterns in H3 virus prevalence and shedding and (iii) H3-specific antibody prevalence in relation to host migratory strategy. We demonstrate that the H3 LPAIV strain causing the epizootic most likely originated from a single introduction, followed by local clonal expansion. The H3 LPAIV strain was genetically unrelated to H3 LPAIV detected both before and after the epizootic at the study site. During the LPAIV epizootic, migratory mallards were more often infected with H3 LPAIV than residents. Low titres of H3-specific antibodies were detected in only a few residents and migrants. Our results suggest that in this LPAIV epizootic, a single H3 virus was present in resident mallards prior to arrival of migratory mallards followed by a period of virus amplification, importantly associated with the influx of migratory mallards. Thus migrants are suggested to act as local amplifiers rather than the often suggested role as vectors importing novel strains from afar. Our study exemplifies that a multifaceted interdisciplinary approach offers promising opportunities to elucidate the role of migratory and resident hosts in infectious disease dynamics in wildlife.  相似文献   

16.
Airborne transmission of influenza A virus (IAV) in swine is speculated to be an important route of virus dissemination, but data are scarce. This study attempted to detect and quantify airborne IAV by virus isolation and RRT-PCR in air samples collected under field conditions. This was accomplished by collecting air samples from four acutely infected pig farms and locating air samplers inside the barns, at the external exhaust fans and downwind from the farms at distances up to 2.1 km. IAV was detected in air samples collected in 3 out of 4 farms included in the study. Isolation of IAV was possible from air samples collected inside the barn at two of the farms and in one farm from the exhausted air. Between 13% and 100% of samples collected inside the barns tested RRT-PCR positive with an average viral load of 3.20E+05 IAV RNA copies/m3 of air. Percentage of exhaust positive air samples also ranged between 13% and 100% with an average viral load of 1.79E+04 RNA copies/m3 of air. Influenza virus RNA was detected in air samples collected between 1.5 and 2.1 Km away from the farms with viral levels significantly lower at 4.65E+03 RNA copies/m3. H1N1, H1N2 and H3N2 subtypes were detected in the air samples and the hemagglutinin gene sequences identified in the swine samples matched those in aerosols providing evidence that the viruses detected in the aerosols originated from the pigs in the farms under study. Overall our results indicate that pigs can be a source of IAV infectious aerosols and that these aerosols can be exhausted from pig barns and be transported downwind. The results from this study provide evidence of the risk of aerosol transmission in pigs under field conditions.  相似文献   

17.

Background

Recently much attention has been given to developing national-scale micro-simulation models for livestock diseases that can be used to predict spread and assess the impact of control measures. The focus of these models has been on directly transmitted infections with little attention given to vector-borne diseases such as bluetongue, a viral disease of ruminants transmitted by Culicoides biting midges. Yet BT has emerged over the past decade as one of the most important diseases of livestock.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We developed a stochastic, spatially-explicit, farm-level model to describe the spread of bluetongue virus (BTV) within and between farms. Transmission between farms was modeled by a generic kernel, which includes both animal and vector movements. Once a farm acquired infection, the within-farm dynamics were simulated based on the number of cattle and sheep kept on the farm and on local temperatures. Parameter estimates were derived from the published literature and using data from the outbreak of bluetongue in northern Europe in 2006. The model was validated using data on the spread of BTV in Great Britain during 2007. The sensitivity of model predictions to the shape of the transmission kernel was assessed.

Conclusions/Significance

The model is able to replicate the dynamics of BTV in Great Britain. Although uncertainty remains over the precise shape of the transmission kernel and certain aspects of the vector, the modeling approach we develop constitutes an ideal framework in which to incorporate these aspects as more and better data become available. Moreover, the model provides a tool with which to examine scenarios for the spread and control of BTV in Great Britain.  相似文献   

18.
A respiratory disease epizootic at the National Bison Range (NBR) in Montana in 2016–2017 caused an 85% decline in the bighorn sheep population, documented by observations of its unmarked but individually identifiable members, the subjects of an ongoing long‐term study. The index case was likely one of a small group of young bighorn sheep on a short‐term exploratory foray in early summer of 2016. Disease subsequently spread through the population, with peak mortality in September and October and continuing signs of respiratory disease and sporadic mortality of all age classes through early July 2017. Body condition scores and clinical signs suggested that the disease affected ewe groups before rams, although by the end of the epizootic, ram mortality (90% of 71) exceeded ewe mortality (79% of 84). Microbiological sampling 10 years to 3 months prior to the epizootic had documented no evidence of infection or exposure to Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae at NBR, but during the epizootic, a single genetic strain of M. ovipneumoniae was detected in affected animals. Retrospective screening of domestic sheep flocks near the NBR identified the same genetic strain in one flock, presumptively the source of the epizootic infection. Evidence of fatal lamb pneumonia was observed during the first two lambing seasons following the epizootic but was absent during the third season following the death of the last identified M. ovipneumoniae carrier ewe. Monitoring of life‐history traits prior to the epizootic provided no evidence that environmentally and/or demographically induced nutritional or other stress contributed to the epizootic. Furthermore, the epizootic occurred despite proactive management actions undertaken to reduce risk of disease and increase resilience in this population. This closely observed bighorn sheep epizootic uniquely illustrates the natural history of the disease including the (presumptive) source of spillover, course, severity, and eventual pathogen clearance.  相似文献   

19.
A large epizootic of an acute respiratory disease of cattle occurred in Japan during the months from October 1968 to May 1969. A virus was recovered in primary cultures of calf kidney and testicle cells from nasal swabs of affected cattle. Neutralization tests revealed the virus to be closely related to the Long strain of human respiratory syncytial virus. The virus induced cytopathic changes including the formation of syncytia and acidophilic-cytoplasmic inclusions in calf kidney and testicle cell cultures. A calf inoculated with the virus by the respiratory route developed an illness resembling the natural disease. Most cattle clinically diagnosed as having the disease showed significant rises of neutralizing antibody titer for the isolated virus, whereas none or only small fractions of those animals showed serological evidence for recent infection with bovine ephemeral fever virus, infectious bovine rhinotracheitis virus, Ibaraki virus, bovine diarrhea virus, bovine adenovirus Type 7 and parainfluenza virus Type 3. Neutralization tests on paired sera revealed a wide dissemination of the isolated virus among cattle in many areas of the country during the epizootic. All these findings leave no doubt that the epizootic was caused by bovine respiratory syncytial virus. This is the first study that ever shows the presence of infection of cattle with this virus in Japan.  相似文献   

20.
PCR检测伪狂犬病病毒DNA   总被引:11,自引:0,他引:11  
 根据伪狂犬病病毒 (PRV)gB基因的序列 ,设计并合成了一对引物 ,以闽A株细胞培养毒为模板 ,筛选最佳反应条件 ,建立了检测PRV的PCR方法 应用该方法对Fb、Bartha、BJ、GD、V2F4、S、S3、SR、Buk、Shope、Norden、MinkⅢ、HB、F8、F9、F12等毒株的细胞培养液进行基因扩增 ,均获得了分子量为 2 81bp的特异性目的DNA片段 ,而对Vero细胞与FMDV、SVDV、HCV、PRRSV、JEV、PPV等病毒进行检测 ,结果均为阴性 ,没有出现交叉反应 对PRV毒株扩增的产物测序 ,结果序列与文献报道一致 ,证明PCR扩增产物和方法的特异性 对 1994~ 2 0 0 0年期间送检的临床样品和保存的PRV毒种 ,用病毒分离、双抗体夹心ELISA和PCR等 3种方法进行检测 ,结果前 2种方法检测为阳性的 ,PCR检测均为阳性 ;PCR检测为阴性 ,前 2种方法检测也为阴性 ;可是 ,前 2种方法检测为阴性的 ,PCR却检测出部分阳性 ;经x2 检验 ,证明PCR检出率明显高于前 2种方法的检出率 对PRV闽A株细胞毒提取物DNA进行检测 ,其最低检出量为 15 8pg 对 1999~ 2 0 0 0年期间广东、福建、海南等省的 31个大中型猪场送检的 191份病料进行检测 .结果病料阳性率为 2 6 2 % ( 50 191) ,猪场阳性率为 71% ( 2 2 31) 实验结果表明 ,所建立的PCR技术可用于伪狂犬病的快速诊断  相似文献   

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