南方洪涝灾害综合风险评估

利用中国南方地区12个省(市)2004—2012年的洪涝灾情资料,在综合表征洪涝灾情特点的基础上,选取具有可比性的受灾面积比重、受灾人口比重和直接经济损失比重等相对灾情指标,剔除耕地复种、人口变化、物价上涨和地域尺度限制等因素的影响,通过灰色关联法、正态信息扩散法,构建洪涝灾害综合相对灾情指数及其风险估算模型,对南方地区洪涝灾害的综合风险进行了研究。结果表明:综合相对灾情指数能较好反映不同省份每年受灾的差异情况,各省(市)的综合相对灾情指数与实际灾情的相关系数均达0.7以上(P0.05);洪涝灾害主要为中灾和小灾,江西、湖北、四川、重庆发生大灾的可能性较大,福建、湖南、广西和安徽次之,广东、云南、江苏和浙江可能性较小;在排除热带气旋带来的洪涝灾害影响下,洪涝灾害综合相对灾情风险分布特征为内陆地区高于沿海地区,内陆地区中湖北的风险最高,沿海地区中江苏最低。本研究结果解决了区域间综合相对灾情等级的风险量化及可比性问题,可为区域防洪救灾对策措施以及洪涝灾害保险政策制定提供科学依据。     

吉林省农业气象干旱灾害的风险分析及区划

利用1961-2010年吉林省50个站气候观测资料、1981-2010年干旱灾情和农业经济资料,基于灾害风险系统分析理论、农田水分平衡法和综合灾害风险指数法,在分析干旱对吉林省农业影响致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体脆弱性和防旱减灾能力的基础上,应用加权综合法得到不同单元的综合风险度指数;基于GIS技术,开展了干旱对吉林省农业影响的风险区划.结果表明:致灾因子危险性的高值区分布在西部的白城和松原大部分地区,孕灾环境敏感性的高值区分布在白城地区、松原地区、四平地区北部和通化地区南部,承灾体脆弱性的高值区主要分布在经济较发达的松原大部分地区、长春大部分地区、四平地区等,防旱减灾能力的高值区分布在松原、长春、四平、吉林和通化市区及其周边地区.考虑各因子的综合风险度,干旱对吉林省农业影响的风险可分为高风险、次高风险、中等风险、次低风险和低风险5个等级,其中,高、次高风险主要分布在吉林省中西部的白城、松原、长春和四平地区.     

基于地理信息系统的红火蚁在中国适生区的预测

应用地理信息系统(GIS)对红火蚁在中国的适生区进行了预测.以高于发育起点温度的天数和有效积温作为决定性因子,年均降水量、海拔高度作为限制性因子,应用GIS中的Kriging空间插值功能将红火蚁在我国的适生性分布情况分为高度适生区、适生区、轻度适生区和非适生区.结果表明,广东大部、广西中南部、云南南部的少数地区、海南、台湾、香港和澳门是红火蚁的高度适生区.云南南部、两广北部、河南最南部、安徽西部、浙江大部、湖北中东部、重庆、湖南、江西和福建是红火蚁的适生区.轻度适生区分布于河北中东部、山东中东部、北京、天津、江苏中北部、安徽大部、河南大部、浙江西北部、湖北西北部、陕西南部、四川东部、贵州中西部和云南中部的少数地区.我国的西北、东北和华北的大部分地区为红火蚁的非适生区.     

气候变暖背景下东南地区暴雨洪涝灾害风险变化

基于中国东南地区9省(区)1972—2013年的暴雨洪涝灾情资料,采用灰色关联法、正态信息扩散法,分别构建了基于受灾面积比重和成灾面积比重的暴雨洪涝灾害相对灾情指数及其风险估算模型,分析了气候变暖前(1972—1992年)、后(1993—2013年)东南地区暴雨洪涝灾害的风险变化。结果表明:东南地区暴雨洪涝灾害在20世纪80年代有较大范围的突变性增加,较东南地区变暖突变时段(1993年)有所提前;20世纪90年代,各省均先后出现了暴雨洪涝灾害相对灾情指数最大值;东南地区各省在变暖后大体上发生大灾和中灾的概率有所增加,出现小灾和微灾的概率有所变小,总体来看仍以中灾发生最为频繁,基本为不到2年一遇;除江苏外,东南地区其他省份变暖后大灾及以上级别暴雨洪涝灾害发生频率为变暖前的2~8倍,以广西增幅最大;在考虑了东南地区热带气旋带来的暴雨洪涝灾害影响后,变暖背景下各省的相对灾情风险指数除江苏减小7%外,其他均增大;增幅最大的是广西,达21%,变暖前后的高风险中心由原来的广东变为广西。     

江淮地区小麦涝渍灾害风险评估与区划

基于灾害风险分析理论,根据历年气候资料,小麦生长发育、种植面积和产量资料,对江淮地区各县小麦涝渍脆弱性、自然气候风险、灾损风险和抗灾能力等方面进行分析评估,建立了包括涝渍脆弱度、气候风险指数、灾损风险指数、涝渍综合风险评估系数等不同的涝渍风险表征模型,并构建了涝渍综合风险评估系数作为区划指标,对江淮地区小麦涝渍灾害风险进行了空间区域划分。结果表明:涝渍脆弱度、气候风险指数、灾损风险指数和抗灾力系数4个因子的组合,可以较好地反映江淮地区小麦涝渍风险特征;按照高、较高、中和低4个等级对小麦涝渍综合风险进行了区划;安徽省江淮南部为高风险区;沿淮中部以及江淮中部南部、沿洪泽湖区域为涝渍较高风险区;河南省33°N以南区域、以及安徽、江苏省淮北中部区域为涝渍中风险区;33°N以北地区为涝渍低风险区。     

危害青檀的新物种——青檀绵叶蚜在中国的潜在地理分布

【背景】青檀绵叶蚜是近几年在山东枣庄市发现危害青檀的新物种,该蚜虫对青檀造成了一定的危害。【方法】2013年对山东和安徽青檀分布地实地调查确定青檀绵叶蚜的分布情况,并结合我国环境变量,采用Maxent生态位模型对青檀绵叶蚜在中国的潜在地理分布进行预测。【结果】青檀绵叶蚜潜在高风险区大面积集中在山东,江苏和北京有零星分布;中风险区大面积集中在河北、河南、安徽和江苏;低风险区集中在山西、四川、江西、辽宁、湖北、湖南和浙江等地区。【结论与意义】青檀绵叶蚜潜在分布区集中在中国中东部地区,这对青檀分布地区预防青檀绵叶蚜发生有重要意义。     

四不象鹿属地理分布的变迁

四不象鹿属是第四纪期间东亚地区的特有动物,早更新世期间种属较多,分布于华北、台湾及日本;中更新世时,主要分布于江淮地区;晚更新世期间,继续在江淮地区生存,但逐渐移向东南沿海;全新世期间,见于河北、北京、河南、山东、安徽、江苏、上海及浙江,其中以长江下游的江苏、上海等地最多.四不象鹿属地理分布的变迁,反映了气候的变化.     

中国淡水枝角类新种和新纪录的记要

自1952年起,中国科学院水生生物研究所即着手进行全国淡水浮游动物区系调查。迄目前为止,已经普遍地收集到了四川、湖南、湖北、江西、安徽、江苏、浙江、福建、广东、广西、贵州、云南、新疆、青海、西藏、甘肃、陕西、山东、河北、辽宁、吉林、黑龙江、内蒙等广大地区的淡水枝角类标本。同时,也注意了这类动物的生态分布状况。近几年来,作者已将这批区系材料作了全面的观察与分析。现经鉴定的淡水枝角类已达120余种,其中有若     

1961-2017年环渤海地区气象干旱时空特征及致灾危险性评估

基于1961-2017年环渤海地区60个地面气象站点的逐日气温和降水资料,计算了各站点逐日气象干旱综合指数（Meteorological drought Composite Index,MCI）,统计近57年各站点的气象干旱过程,并进一步分析了环渤海地区各季节气象干旱的时空变化特征及致灾危险性等级分布。结果表明：（1）环渤海地区春季干旱覆盖范围和持续日数呈下降趋势,但干旱强度有所增加,夏、秋两季干旱覆盖范围和持续日数呈上升趋势,而干旱强度有所减少,冬季干旱覆盖范围和干旱强度均呈增加状态,干旱持续日数有所下降。（2）春季干旱覆盖范围、干旱持续日数、干旱强度以及干旱发生频率均居四季之首,干旱状况最严重,夏、秋季次之,冬季最轻。（3）各季节干旱强度和干旱发生频率的高值区主要分布在辽宁西北部、河北中南部以及山东大部分地区,低值区主要位于辽宁东部地区。（4）各季节干旱致灾危险性等级总体呈西高东低、南高北低的分布特征,其中,河北中南部气象干旱的致灾危险性较高,辽宁东部的较低;春旱致灾危险性总体较高,夏、秋季次之,冬季最低。     

一次大范围强降水过程的天气分析

2007年5月30到31日,四川东部、湖北大部以及贵州、湖南部分地区出现大范围稳定纬向型暴雨,湖北省有38个站达暴雨(不含雨量站点),其中13个站为大暴雨,鄂东为强降水中心,从形成此次强降水的大环流背景、引发暴雨的中尺度条件等方面入手,对此次大范围强降水天气过程的成因进行了综合分析。     

Spatiotemporal assessment of rainstorm hazard risk in Qinling mountains of China

Rainstorms are natural hazards, and they create hurdles in many parts of the world. They often cause damages to the life, properties, and human activities. The Qinling Mountains of China are among the few areas that are extremely hit by the rainstorms, but their hazard risks have not fully been assessed. This article takes an attempt to fill this gap by providing a comprehensive spatiotemporal risk assessment for the area. By using the geographic information system-enhanced Analytical Hierarchy Process assessment framework and the comprehensive index model, the rainstorm hazard risks can be evaluated from four different aspects. At last, the comprehensive rainstorm hazard risks have been assessed and zoned. Results indicate that with regional climate change, the frequencies of rainstorm have slightly increased over the past period of 46 years, and rainstorm hazard risks become higher on the whole. As a strong seasonal variation in the rainstorm days, the highest rainstorm hazard risks occur in July annually. The comprehensive rainstorm hazard risks in the southern regions of the Qinling Mountains are obviously higher than those in the northern regions. The Hanzhong and Ankang basins along the Hanjiang River are under the highest risk of rainstorms. The big cities of Xi'an and Baoji, piedmont plain and regions with good transportation, are under the lowest risk. The spatial distribution of rainstorm hazard risk shows that it has certain regulations along the rivers, ridges, and valleys, but it may be affected by the factors of rainfall and human activities. This article is significant for strategic environmental planning and hazard emergency management of the study area as well as in similar climatic regions of the world.     

高密度中心城区暴雨防灾规划体系及策略研究

系统总结了城市暴雨灾害的特征和诱因,建立了高密度中心城区暴雨防灾规划体系,根据中心城区特征提出了基于生态安全理念的土地效能优化、基于绿道理论的绿地空间规划、基于低影响理论的暴雨调节系统、结合地下空间开发的暴雨管网建设等常态暴雨防灾策略,探索了基于灾时应急思维的暴雨防灾策略以及法律规范、技术条件、财政投入等暴雨防灾支撑策略,力图有效指导中心城区的生态安全和可持续发展。     

Chemical speciation and risks of heavy metals in sediment of urban wetlands in southeastern China

Dredging, remediation, and other management of sediment in polluted urban wetlands require the information of environmental risks associated with heavy metals (HMs). In this study, sediment samples collected from three typical wetlands in the urban area of Wenzhou City, China, were analyzed to evaluate their risks posed by five HMs. Sediments from an industrial area stored higher Cr and Cu but lower Cd and Pb than those from the residential and agricultural areas. The assessment by the pollution load index method indicated that all of the three study wetlands were polluted. An ecological risk index approach identified low risk for wetlands in forested and residential areas but high risk for wetlands in an industrial area as well as in mixed residential and agricultural area, which was also confirmed by the geo-accumulation index (I_geo) method. Furthermore, the ratio of the secondary phase and primary phase and risk assessment code methods recognized that Cd poses a high pollution risk. The results indicated that sediment pollution by HMs in urban wetlands is possibly a widespread problem in China and needs great attention.     

Spatial distribution of rainstorm hazard risk based on EW-AHP in mountainous scenic area of China

Rainstorm hazards seriously affect the lives of residents and activities of tourists in rainstorm harder-hit scenic areas. The assessment of rainstorm hazard risk has a great significance in the area. Based on the disciplines of geography and tourism, an assessment system has been constructed by using the Entropy Weight-Analytic Hierarchy Process and exponential model. Finally, the Huayang Ancient Town Scenic Area in China has been taken as study area, and its rainstorm hazard risk and spatial distribution have been evaluated. The results indicate the following: The rainstorm hazard risk areas are mainly concentrated along rivers, valleys, or roads; The specific spatial distributions are: rainstorm hazard risk of the Huayang Old Streets is high, that of the Red Cliff Valley and both sides of the Mandarin Duck River are higher, that of the Golden Monkey Valley and the Macaque Park are lower, that of the Tangluo Ancient Road is low, and the risks of other areas are medium; The main influencing factors of rainstorm hazard risk are elevation, terrain, gap and width of river, distance to river, building density, tourist flow and tourism activity; People's awareness, system of monitoring and early warning, emergency plan, facilities and equipment for rainstorm hazard prevention and mitigation need to be continuously improved.     

基于灾害风险综合指标的陕西省农业干旱时空特征

随着气候变化,农业干旱直接威胁粮食安全.本文以陕西省为研究对象,基于自然灾害风险理论,综合考虑干旱灾害影响因素,从致灾因子的危险性、承灾体的暴露性、环境的脆弱性和地区的抗旱能力4个风险要素选取指标,采用层次分析法确定指标权重,构建自然灾害风险综合指标,分析2009—2013年陕西省农业干旱时空特征.结果表明: 研究期间,陕北地区农业干旱风险略呈下降趋势;陕南地区呈急剧升高态势,以商洛市为甚;关中地区基本稳定,以咸阳市最高、西安市最低.陕西省农业干旱风险大体呈现从南向北逐渐递增现象.     

Assessing household livelihood vulnerability to climate change: The case of Northwest Vietnam

This study applied livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and livelihood effect index (LEI) to assess vulnerability from climate variability and change of three agricultural and natural resources dependent commune in northwest Vietnam, a country that is expected to bear some of the most severe impacts of climate change. Based on a survey of 335 farm household data, complemented with secondary data on climate factors, a composite index was calculated and differential vulnerabilities were compared. The results of the analysis suggest that one of the communities, “Pa Vay Su,” was more vulnerable than the others, particularly in relation to housing, knowledge and skills, socio-demographics, health and water security, social networks, and livelihood strategy. “Hien Luong” commune, on the other hand, was more vulnerable in relation to other LVI indicators with the exception of food security, climate variability, and natural disasters. “Moc Chau” community was more vulnerable in relation to water security, social demographic than Hien Luong commune. Overall, the article shows that three different vulnerability assessment indices can be broadly applied in comparable setting in other areas of country and they could usefully establish the basis for a nationally applicable index to identify and prioritize adaptation and mitigation needs.     

基于GIS的四川盆周北部山区夏玉米农业气象灾害风险评估——以旺苍县为例

气象灾害是制约我国农业发展的主要因素之一,明确夏玉米农业气象灾害风险对于防灾减灾具有重要意义。本研究基于自然灾害风险理论,以四川盆地北部山区的典型区域(旺苍县)1981—2018年气象数据和玉米产量数据为基础,确定影响夏玉米生产的主要致灾因子,并结合孕灾环境敏感性及承灾体脆弱性构建夏玉米综合农业气象灾害风险评估模型,对四川盆地北部山区夏玉米生产过程中的农业气象灾害风险进行评估。结果表明: 研究期间,成熟期高温、花期暴雨、成熟期暴雨、灌浆期连阴雨和孕穗期干旱是影响研究区夏玉米生长发育的主要农业气象灾害。旺苍县夏玉米农业气象灾害综合风险分布大致呈西南-东北走向,高风险和较高风险区分布区域约占旺苍县总面积的二分之一;灾害风险高值区主要位于研究区西南部,基本与致灾因子危险性高值区一致;灾害风险低值区多集中在西部边缘,此区域亦为成熟期高温、成熟期暴雨、花期暴雨气象灾害的低风险区。     

基于时空数据挖掘技术的华东区域暴雨时空特征

基于TRMM 3B42降雨数据,构建5个年尺度的时间序列参数,结合数据挖掘和GIS空间分析技术,分析2003—2015年中国华东区域暴雨时空特征.结果表明: 2003—2015年,研究区年降水量与年暴雨降水量空间分布较为相似,年降水总量呈略微上升的趋势,年暴雨降水比例的时间波动较显著;暴雨降水空间分布在南北方向的差异性明显强于东西方向;年暴雨频次的时间波动较小但空间差异显著;年暴雨降水呈现向北偏移的趋势;5个变量的变化趋势均表现出较强的空间差异性,且大部分像元呈不显著的增加(或减少)趋势.     

Development of a Composite Index with Quantitative Indicators for Drought Disaster Risk Analysis at the Micro Level

It is the aim of this study to provide non-state as well as state actors with an effective tool to assess the drought risk of households. The developed methodology introduces a technique for comparative measuring in the context of drought disaster risk management. This approach is designed to contribute to the effectiveness and accuracy of drought risk analyses at the micro level. In a process of qualitative and quantitative empirical research in East India, 10 single indicators for drought risk at the household level have been developed and validated. Based on this, methods of combining these single indicators within a composite index are introduced. Within the study area in Orissa, this instrument can be used for drought risk analysis in order to prioritize preventive measures. Outside the study area, the developed methodology can be adopted to gain suitable risk indicators and composite index weighting criteria. This study tackles the desire of disaster risk management projects for comparative risk analysis at the micro level and demonstrates how certain characteristics of households’ can be quantified. Thus the developed instrument facilitates prioritizing preventive actions for the most vulnerable households.