应用ARIMA模型预测宝安区某街道其它感染性腹泻发病率的探讨

目的：探讨应用ARIMA模型预测宝安区某街道其它感染性腹泻发病率的可行性。方法：应用SPSS13．0软件对2005年～2009年宝安区某街道其它感染性腹泻逐月发病率进行ARIMA模型建模拟合,用所得到的模型对2010年各月发病率进行预测,并评价其预测效果。结果：宝安区某街道其它感染性腹泻发病率每年11月为发病高峰,ARIMA（0,1,1）（0,1,0）12模型是其拟合的最佳模型,其预测结果和实际值绝对误差的绝对值最大为930．47,最小为1．96,平均值214．83,平均相对误差百分比39．04％。结论：模型虽然起到一定的预测效果,但预测精度仍存在误差,可通过积累新的周期数据对ARIMA模型进行修正和重新拟合,也可尝试新的预测方法或其他模型,才能加强和保证预测的精度。     

ARIMA乘积季节模型在河南省风疹疫情预测中的应用

目的建立自回归求和移动平均(ARIMA)乘积季节模型,探讨其在河南省风疹发病趋势预测应用中的可行性。方法收集河南省2004—2013年报告的各月风疹病例数,建立ARIMA乘积季节模型,用2014年1—12月报告的风疹病例数,验证模型预测效果。结果河南省2004—2013年报告的风疹病例数呈现明显的季节效应,2009年前呈现逐年增多的趋势,2009年后呈现逐年减少的趋势;模型ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12能较好的拟合既往的风疹病例数,且对2014年1—12月份风疹病例数的预测值与实际值基本吻合。结论 ARIMA乘积季节模型对河南省风疹发病趋势的预测具有可行性。     

ARIMA乘积季节模型在辽阳市乙型肝炎发病预测中的应用

目的应用自回归移动平均(auto-regressive moving average,ARIMA)乘积季节模型对辽阳市乙型肝炎(hepatitis B,简称乙肝)发病数据进行分析预测,为乙肝预警系统及防控策略提供科学依据。方法对中国疾病预防控制信息系统中辽阳市2001年1月—2015年12月乙肝月发病数建立ARIMA乘积季节模型,应用EViews 8.0软件进行模型拟合,并对2016年1—12月乙肝月发病数进行预测评价。结果所构建的ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,2)12模型为最佳模型,预测值与实际值拟合效果较好,相对误差较小。结论 ARIMA乘积季节模型能够反映辽阳市乙肝发病的时间趋势,适用于短期预测,预测效果理想。     

ARIMA乘积季节模型在医院门急诊人次预测中的应用

目的 用ARIMA乘积季节模型(p,d,q)(P,D,Q)_s预测门急诊人次,为医院管理策服务。方法 数据源于某院HIS,选取2002年1月—2014年10月逐月门急诊人次数据,其中2002—2013年各月数据用于建立模型,2014年1—10月数据用于验证所建立的模型,然后用所建立模型预测2015年门急诊人次。用平均相对误差绝对值（MAPE）评价模型的预测精度。结果 建立了ARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,1)₁₂模型,模型预测的MAPE为7.01%,2015年门急诊人次预测值为550121。结论 ARIMA乘积季节模型(p,d,q)(P,D,Q)_s预测医院门急诊人次的效果理想,可以为医院管理者提供有价值的信息。     

联合应用生态制剂治疗感染性腹泻的临床研究

本文应用丽珠肠乐加整肠生联合治疗感染性腹泻,治愈率为９２．１％,与单一应用整肠生,治愈率（７３．１％）有显著性差异（ｘ￣２＝４．２４,Ｐ＜０．０５）,与氟哌酸组无明显差异（ｘ￣２＝３．０２,Ｐ＞０．０５）,单一整肠生组与氟哌酸组无明显差异（ｘ￣２＝０．２２,Ｐ＞０．０５）。生态制剂有良好确切疗效,两种生态制剂联合治疗,明显提高治愈率。感染性腹泻原因菌的分离结果,揭示了本地区感染性腹泻病原菌的多样化和复杂性,应用生态制剂联合治疗,优于抗生素治疗。     

ARIMA模型在杭州市中小学生咳嗽症状监测中的应用

目的：探讨时间序列ARIMA模型在时间序列资料分析中的应用,建立咳嗽症状监测数据的预测模型.方法：采用条件最小二乘方法估计模型参数.通过对数转换及差分方法使原始序列平稳,按照残差不相关原则、简洁原则确定模型结构,依据AIC和SBC准则确定模型阶数,最终建立起ARIMA预测模型.结果：ARIMA（1,1,1）模型拟合效果较好,方差估计值为0.7361,AIC=95.6092,SBC=98.8310,对模型进行白噪声残差检验,提示残差为白噪声.结论：症状监测这种具有时间序列特点的资料可以用ARIMA模型来进行拟合估计.本文中预测结果可信区间比较宽,可能是因为时间序列比较短,还未能考虑到季节趋势.另外,所用监测数据是在中小学生在校发生症状的人数,故在节假日会出现缺失值,样本量和时间长度均有限,可能影响模型估计的准确性,本研究的结论还有待于将来资料积累后进行修正和深化.     

基于ARIMA模型的生态足迹动态模拟和预测——以甘肃省为例

生态足迹(EF)是一种定量测量人类对自然利用程度的方法。然而目前对其发展趋势准确的定量分析尚不多见。可采用自回归综合移动平均模型(ARIMA)来模拟并预测区域生态足迹。综合运用生态足迹方法和ARIMA模型对甘肃省1949-2009年的生态足迹和生态承载力进行了动态模拟和分析,在此基础上预测了2010-2015年的生态足迹变化趋势。结果表明:1949-2009年,人均生态足迹呈现上升趋势,预计2010-2015年上升趋势明显加快,2015年会增加到2.6051 hm²/人,是2009年的1.67倍;1997-2004年人均生态承载力逐年减少,2005年之后逐年增加,预计2010-2015年仍会增加;预计2010-2015年所有人均生态足迹组成类型均呈现上升趋势,尤以人均化石能源生态足迹增长显著;1997-2009年人均生态承载力均小于人均生态足迹,导致生态赤字,甘肃省生态环境处于不可持续状态,预计2010-2015年人均生态承载力略有增长,但仍小于人均生态足迹,生态赤字不断增大,预计2015年增长到-2.0468 hm²/人,约为2009年(-1.0262 hm²/人)的两倍,甘肃省生态环境不断恶化;经济的发展依赖于化石能源的消耗而造成对自然资源的过度利用,大量耕地转换为建设用地,草地荒漠化是引起甘肃省生态赤字的主要原因;改变经济发展和资源消费模式,控制人口规模,减少人均生态足迹消耗,优化配置和集约节约利用自然资源,提高生态承载力是促进社会经济和资源环境可持续发展的有效途经。     

婴幼儿感染性腹泻的微生态疗法

报告１９９５年２～４月间住院的９９例急性感染性腹泻患儿,年龄２．５月～１８月,随机分成微生态治疗组６３例及常规抗生素对照组３６例。两组病儿入院时病程及病症相仿,经统计学处理无显著性差（Ｐ＜０．０５）。结果治疗组显效４０例,有效１６例,无效７例;对照组显效１２例,有效１１例,无效１３例。治疗组显效率６３．４９％及总有效率８８．８９％均高于对照组３３．３３％及６３．８９％。提示以新一代微生态制剂——培菲康为主药治疗婴幼儿感染性腹泻有良好的疗效,结合文献探讨微生态疗法的作用机理。     

基于ARIMA模型的我国医院就诊人次预测分析

目的 预测和分析2011—2015年我国医院就诊人次和卫生服务需求。方法 建立ARIMA（1,2,2）模型,预测我国医院就诊人次。结果 未来5年我国医院就诊人次呈增长趋势,平均每年增长9.32%。结论 要加大卫生投入,合理配置卫生资源,加快公共卫生服务体系建设,完善医疗保障体系建设,以满足人们的卫生健康需求。     

微生态制剂“宫入菌”治疗小儿感染性腹泻的临床研究

“宫入菌”为有芽胞的酪酸菌制剂。本文采用“宫入菌”治疗小儿急性细菌性痢疾４２例，有效率８８．０９％，其它小儿感染性腹泻２２例，有效率８６．３６％，全部６４例，总有效率８７．５０％。其中单用“宫入菌”制剂，未用抗生素治疗２３例，有效１７例，有效率７３．９１％。余４１例加用抗生素，有效率９５．１２％，未发现毒、副作用。对“宫入菌”的药理作用及特点进行了讨论。     

Changes in the Fabric and Compliance Tensors of Cancellous Bone due to Trabecular Surface Remodeling,Predicted by a Digital Image-based Model

Fabric and compliance tensors of a cube of cancellous bone with a complicated three-dimensional trabecular structure were obtained for trabecular surface remodeling by using a digital image-based model combined with a large-scale finite element method. Using mean intercept length and a homogenization method, the fabric and compliance tensors were determined for the trabecular structure obtained in the computer remodeling simulation. The tensorial quantities obtained indicated that anisotropic structural changes occur in cancellous bone adapting to the compressive loading condition. There were good correlations between the fabric tensor, bone volume fraction, and compliance tensor in the remodeling process. The result demonstrates that changes in the structural and mechanical properties of cancellous bone are essentially anisotropic and should be expressed by tensorial quantities.     

A stable alpha-helix-rich intermediate is formed by a single mutation of the beta-sheet protein, src SH3, at pH 3

Recently, we have found a transient intermediate on the folding pathway of src SH3. Intending to investigate the structure of the transient intermediate, we tested a mutant of src SH3, named A45G, using circular dichroism, fluorescence and X-ray solution scattering, and incidentally found that it forms a stable alpha-helix-rich intermediate (I(eq)) (different from the native beta-sheet-based secondary structure) at pH 3.0, but contains only beta-sheets at pH 6.0, whereas wild-type SH3 forms only beta-sheets at both pH 3.0 and pH 6.0. The intermediate I(eq) shows a circular dichroism measured at theta(222)=-10,300 deg.cm(2) dmol(-1), indicating a 31% alpha-helix proportion, as estimated by the CONTIN program. X-ray scattering gave the radius of gyration for I(eq) as 19.1 A at pH 3.0 and 15.4 A at pH 6.0, and Kratky plots showed a clear peak at pH 3.0, 4.0 and 6.0, indicating that I(eq) too is compact. In these parameters, I(eq) closely resembles the kinetically-obtained intermediate I(kin) which we found on the folding pathway of wild-type SH3 at pH 3.0 (radius of gyration 18.7 A and theta(222)=-8700 deg.cm(2)dmol(-1)), indicating a 26% alpha-helix proportion in our previous paper. Refolding experiments with A45G were done at pH 6.0 by stopped-flow apparatus monitored by circular dichroism, and compared to kinetic experiments with wild-type SH3 at pH 6.0. The result showed an alpha-helix-rich intermediate at the same dichroism amplitude, but nine times slower in formation-rate. A pH-jump experiment from pH 3.0 to pH 5.9 on A45G was also performed. This showed no bursts, and the rate of conformation-change was almost as fast as the refolding rate of A45G at pH 6.0. These kinetic experiment data would be consistent with I(eq) being nearly identical to the I(kin), which appeared on the folding pathways of both wild-type SH3 and A45G at pH 3.     

Brief communication: Reaction to fire by savanna chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes verus) at Fongoli,Senegal: Conceptualization of “fire behavior” and the case for a chimpanzee model

The use and control of fire are uniquely human traits thought to have come about fairly late in the evolution of our lineage, and they are hypothesized to correlate with an increase in intellectual complexity. Given the relatively sophisticated cognitive abilities yet small brain size of living apes compared to humans and even early hominins, observations of wild chimpanzees' reactions to naturally occurring fire can help inform hypotheses about the likely responses of early hominins to fire. We use data on the behavior of savanna chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes verus) at Fongoli, Senegal during two encounters with wildfires to illuminate the similarities between great apes and humans regarding their reaction to fire. Chimpanzees' close relatedness to our lineage makes them phylogenetically relevant to the study of hominid evolution, and the open, hot and dry environment at Fongoli, similar to the savanna mosaic thought to characterize much of hominid evolution, makes these apes ecologically important as a living primate model as well. Chimpanzees at Fongoli calmly monitor wildfires and change their behavior in anticipation of the fire's movement. The ability to conceptualize the “behavior” of fire may be a synapomorphic trait characterizing the human‐chimpanzee clade. If the cognitive underpinnings of fire conceptualization are a primitive hominid trait, hypotheses concerning the origins of the control and use of fire may need revision. We argue that our findings exemplify the importance of using living chimpanzees as models for better understanding human evolution despite recently published suggestions to the contrary. Am J Phys Anthropol, 2010. © 2009 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.