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1.
    
  1. Biotic interactions affect species distributions, and environmental factors that influence these interactions can play a key role when range shifts in response to environmental change are modelled.
  2. In a field experiment using enclosures, we studied the effects of the thermal habitat on intra‐ versus inter‐specific competition of juvenile Dolly Varden Salvelinus malma and white‐spotted charr Salvelinus leucomaenis, as measured by differences in specific growth rates during summer in allopatric and sympatric treatments. Previous laboratory experiments have shown mixed results regarding the importance of temperature‐dependent competitive abilities as a main driver for spatial segregation in stream fishes, and no study so far has confirmed its existence in natural streams.
  3. Under natural conditions in areas where the two species occur in sympatry, Dolly Varden dominate spring‐fed tributaries (cold, stable thermal regime), whereas both species often coexist in non‐spring‐fed tributaries (warm, unstable thermal regime). Enclosures (charr density = 6 per m2) were placed in non‐spring‐fed (10–14°C) and spring‐fed (7–8°C) tributaries.
  4. In enclosures placed in non‐spring‐fed tributaries, Dolly Varden grew 0.81% per day in allopatry and had negative growth (?0.33% per day) in sympatry, whereas growth rates were similar in allopatry and sympatry in spring‐fed tributaries (0.68 and 0.58% per day). White‐spotted charr grew better in sympatry than in allopatry in both thermal habitats. In non‐spring‐fed tributaries, they grew 0.17 and 0.79% per day and in spring‐fed tributaries 0.46 and 0.75% per day in allopatry and sympatry, respectively.
  5. The negative effect of inter‐specific competition from white‐spotted charr on Dolly Varden thus depended on the thermal habitat. However, there was no strong evidence of a temperature‐dependent effect of intra‐ and inter‐specific competition on white‐spotted charr growth.
  6. Multiple factors may shape species distribution patterns, and we show that temperature may mediate competitive outcomes and thus coexistence in stream fish. These effects of temperature will be important to incorporate into mechanistic and dynamic species distribution models.
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2.
3.
Temporal advancement of resource availability by warming in seasonal environments can reduce reproductive success of vertebrates if their own reproductive phenology does not also advance with warming. Indirect evidence from large-scale analyses suggests, however, that migratory vertebrates might compensate for this by tracking phenological variation across landscapes. Results from our two-year warming experiment combined with seven years of observations of plant phenology and offspring production by caribou (Rangifer tarandus) in Greenland, however, contradict evidence from large-scale analyses. At spatial scales relevant to the foraging horizon of individual herbivores, spatial variability in plant phenology was reduced--not increased--by both experimental and observed warming. Concurrently, offspring production by female caribou declined with reductions in spatial variability in plant phenology. By highlighting the spatial dimension of trophic mismatch, these results reveal heretofore unexpected adverse consequences of climatic warming for herbivore population ecology.  相似文献   

4.
We link spatially explicit climate change predictions to a dynamic metapopulation model. Predictions of species'' responses to climate change, incorporating metapopulation dynamics and elements of dispersal, allow us to explore the range margin dynamics for two lagomorphs of conservation concern. Although the lagomorphs have very different distribution patterns, shifts at the edge of the range were more pronounced than shifts in the overall metapopulation. For Romerolagus diazi (volcano rabbit), the lower elevation range limit shifted upslope by approximately 700 m. This reduced the area occupied by the metapopulation, as the mountain peak currently lacks suitable vegetation. For Lepus timidus (European mountain hare), we modelled the British metapopulation. Increasing the dispersive estimate caused the metapopulation to shift faster on the northern range margin (leading edge). By contrast, it caused the metapopulation to respond to climate change slower, rather than faster, on the southern range margin (trailing edge). The differential responses of the leading and trailing range margins and the relative sensitivity of range limits to climate change compared with that of the metapopulation centroid have important implications for where conservation monitoring should be targeted. Our study demonstrates the importance and possibility of moving from simple bioclimatic envelope models to second-generation models that incorporate both dynamic climate change and metapopulation dynamics.  相似文献   

5.
    
Climate change exposes benthic species populations in coastal ecosystems to a combination of different stressors (e.g., warming, acidification and eutrophication), threatening the sustainability of the ecological functions they provide. Thermal stress appears to be one of the strongest drivers impacting marine ecosystems, acting across a wide range of scales, from individual metabolic performances to geographic distribution of populations. Accounting for and integrating the response of species functional traits to thermal stress is therefore a necessary step in predicting how populations will respond to the warming expected in coming decades. Here, we developed an individual‐based population model using a mechanistic formulation of metabolic processes within the framework of the dynamic energy budget theory. Through a large number of simulations, we assessed the sensitivity of population growth potential to thermal stress and food conditions based on a climate projection scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway; RCP8.5: no reduction of greenhouse gas emissions). We focused on three bivalve species with contrasting thermal tolerance ranges and distinct distribution ranges along 5,000 km of coastline in the NE Atlantic: the Pacific oyster (Magallana gigas), and two mussel species: Mytilus edulis and Mytilus galloprovincialis. Our results suggest substantial and contrasting changes within species depending on local temperature and food concentration. Reproductive phenology appeared to be a core process driving the responses of the populations, and these patterns were closely related to species thermal tolerances. The nonlinear relationship we found between individual life‐history traits and response at the population level emphasizes the need to consider the interactions resulting from upscaling across different levels of biological organisation. These results underline the importance of a process‐based understanding of benthic population response to seawater warming, which will be necessary for forward planning of resource management and strategies for conservation and adaptation to environmental changes.  相似文献   

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  总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
New analyses are presented addressing the global impacts of recent climate change on phenology of plant and animal species. A meta‐analysis spanning 203 species was conducted on published datasets from the northern hemisphere. Phenological response was examined with respect to two factors: distribution of species across latitudes and taxonomic affiliation or functional grouping of target species. Amphibians had a significantly stronger shift toward earlier breeding than all other taxonomic/functional groups, advancing more than twice as fast as trees, birds and butterflies. In turn, butterfly emergence or migratory arrival showed three times stronger advancement than the first flowering of herbs, perhaps portending increasing asynchrony in insect–plant interactions. Response was significantly stronger at higher latitudes where warming has been stronger, but latitude explained < 4% of the variation. Despite expectation, latitude was not yet an important predictor of climate change impacts on phenology. The only two previously published estimates of the magnitude of global response are quite different: 2.3 and 5.1 days decade−1 advancement. The scientific community has assumed this difference to be real and has attempted to explain it in terms of biologically relevant phenomena: specifically, differences in distribution of data across latitudes, taxa or time periods. Here, these and other possibilities are explored. All analyses indicate that the difference in estimated response is primarily due to differences between the studies in criteria for incorporating data. It is a clear and automatic consequence of the exclusion by one study of data on ‘stable’ (nonresponsive) species. Once this is accounted for, the two studies support each other, generating similar conclusions despite analyzing substantially nonoverlapping datasets. Analyses here on a new expanded dataset estimate an overall spring advancement across the northern hemisphere of 2.8 days decade−1. This is the first quantitative analysis showing that data‐sampling methodologies significantly impact global (synthetic) estimates of magnitude of global warming response.  相似文献   

8.
    
  1. Parasitoids are key regulators of the population dynamics of their arthropod hosts, are integral to the structure and dynamics of food webs, and provide ecosystem services by suppressing agricultural pests. Despite their ecological and functional importance, relatively few studies have considered the effects of a warming climate on host–parasitoid interactions.
  2. The three primary modes through which parasitoids might respond to a warming climate are by (i) shifting distributions into cooler environments, (ii) altering phenology, and (iii) adjusting to persist in situ through phenotypic plasticity or evolutionary adaptation.
  3. Here, we focus on examples of altered distributions and phenology in response to climate warming. We suggest that the responses of parasitoids to elevated temperatures and the population dynamic consequences for their hosts will be linked to two key traits: the dispersal ability of both partners, and the host specificity of parasitoids.
  4. Effects of climate warming on host–parasitoid interactions will be complicated by interactions with other co‐occurring environmental changes, such as elevated carbon dioxide and nitrogen, and to interactions with competitors, mutualists, and antagonists. These factors will complicate efforts to generate predictive models of host–parasitoid interactions, for example in the context of the ecosystem service of biological pest control.
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9.
    
  • 1 Climate change is promoting alterations of a very diverse nature in the life cycle of an array of insect species, including changes in phenology and voltinism. In Spain, there is observational evidence that the moth Lobesia botrana Den. & Schiff. (Lep.: Tortricidae), a key vine pest that is usually trivoltine in Mediterranean latitudes, tends to advance spring emergence, displaying a partial fourth additional flight, a fact that is potentially attributable to global warming.
  • 2 To verify this hypothesis, local temperatures were correlated with L. botrana phenology in six vine‐growing areas of southwestern Spain during the last two decades (1984–2006) by exploiting the database of flight curves obtained with sexual pheromone traps. The dates of second and third flight peaks of the moth were calculated for each area and year and then correlated with both time (years) and local temperatures.
  • 3 The results obtained demonstrated a noteworthy trend towards local warming (as a result of global warming) in the last two decades, with mean increases in annual and spring temperatures of 0.9 and 3.0°C, respectively. Therefore, L. botrana phenology has significantly advanced by more than 12 days. Moreover, the phenological advance contributed to increased moth voltinism in 2006 by promoting a complete fourth additional flight, a fact that has never been reported previously to our knowledge in the Iberian Peninsula.
  • 4 The potential impact of an earlier phenology and increased voltinism in L. botrana is discussed from an agro‐ecological perspective.
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10.
    
Two sources of complexity make predicting plant community response to global change particularly challenging. First, realistic global change scenarios involve multiple drivers of environmental change that can interact with one another to produce non‐additive effects. Second, in addition to these direct effects, global change drivers can indirectly affect plants by modifying species interactions. In order to tackle both of these challenges, we propose a novel population modeling approach, requiring only measurements of abundance and climate over time. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, we model population dynamics of eight abundant plant species in a multifactorial global change experiment in alpine tundra where we manipulated nitrogen, precipitation, and temperature over 7 years. We test whether indirect and interactive effects are important to population dynamics and whether explicitly incorporating species interactions can change predictions when models are forecast under future climate change scenarios. For three of the eight species, population dynamics were best explained by direct effect models, for one species neither direct nor indirect effects were important, and for the other four species indirect effects mattered. Overall, global change had negative effects on species population growth, although species responded to different global change drivers, and single‐factor effects were slightly more common than interactive direct effects. When the fitted population dynamic models were extrapolated under changing climatic conditions to the end of the century, forecasts of community dynamics and diversity loss were largely similar using direct effect models that do not explicitly incorporate species interactions or best‐fit models; however, inclusion of species interactions was important in refining the predictions for two of the species. The modeling approach proposed here is a powerful way of analyzing readily available datasets which should be added to our toolbox to tease apart complex drivers of global change.  相似文献   

11.
Most studies that forecast the ecological consequences of climate change target a single species and a single life stage. Depending on climatic impacts on other life stages and on interacting species, however, the results from simple experiments may not translate into accurate predictions of future ecological change. Research needs to move beyond simple experimental studies and environmental envelope projections for single species towards identifying where ecosystem change is likely to occur and the drivers for this change. For this to happen, we advocate research directions that (i) identify the critical species within the target ecosystem, and the life stage(s) most susceptible to changing conditions and (ii) the key interactions between these species and components of their broader ecosystem. A combined approach using macroecology, experimentally derived data and modelling that incorporates energy budgets in life cycle models may identify critical abiotic conditions that disproportionately alter important ecological processes under forecasted climates.  相似文献   

12.
    
The Arctic is warming more rapidly than other region on the planet, and the northern Barents Sea, including the Svalbard Archipelago, is experiencing the fastest temperature increases within the circumpolar Arctic, along with the highest rate of sea ice loss. These physical changes are affecting a broad array of resident Arctic organisms as well as some migrants that occupy the region seasonally. Herein, evidence of climate change impacts on terrestrial and marine wildlife in Svalbard is reviewed, with a focus on bird and mammal species. In the terrestrial ecosystem, increased winter air temperatures and concomitant increases in the frequency of ‘rain‐on‐snow’ events are one of the most important facets of climate change with respect to impacts on flora and fauna. Winter rain creates ice that blocks access to food for herbivores and synchronizes the population dynamics of the herbivore–predator guild. In the marine ecosystem, increases in sea temperature and reductions in sea ice are influencing the entire food web. These changes are affecting the foraging and breeding ecology of most marine birds and mammals and are associated with an increase in abundance of several temperate fish, seabird and marine mammal species. Our review indicates that even though a few species are benefiting from a warming climate, most Arctic endemic species in Svalbard are experiencing negative consequences induced by the warming environment. Our review emphasizes the tight relationships between the marine and terrestrial ecosystems in this High Arctic archipelago. Detecting changes in trophic relationships within and between these ecosystems requires long‐term (multidecadal) demographic, population‐ and ecosystem‐based monitoring, the results of which are necessary to set appropriate conservation priorities in relation to climate warming.  相似文献   

13.
    
Climate change has been shown to cause poleward range shifts of species. These shifts are typically demonstrated using presence–absence data, which can mask the potential changes in the abundance of species. Moreover, changes in the mean centre of weighted density of species are seldom examined, and comparisons between these two methods are even rarer. Here, we studied the change in the mean weighted latitude of density (MWLD) of 94 bird species in Finland, northern Europe, using data covering a north–south gradient of over 1000 km from the 1970s to the 2010s. The MWLD shifted northward on average 1.26 km yr?1, and this shift was significantly stronger in northern species compared to southern species. These shifts can be related to climate warming during the study period, because the annual temperature had increased more in northern Finland (by 1.7 °C) than in southern Finland (by 1.4 °C), although direct causal links cannot be shown. Density shifts of species distributed over the whole country did not differ from shifts in species situated on the edge of the species range in southern and northern species. This means that density shifts occur both in the core and on the edge of species distribution. The species‐specific comparison of MWLD values with corresponding changes in the mean weighted latitude using presence–absence atlas data (MWL) revealed that the MWLD moved more slowly than the MWL in the atlas data in the southern species examined, but more rapidly in the northern species. Our findings highlight that population densities are also moving rapidly towards the poles and the use of presence–absence data can mask the shift of population densities. We encourage use of abundance data in studies considering the effects of climate change on biodiversity.  相似文献   

14.
Cocoons of the specialist parasitoid Cotesia melitaearum , which attacks the Glanville fritillary butterfly in the Åland islands of SW Finland, are parasitized by the generalist hyperparasitoid Gelis agilis . We added experimentally to the system a second host species for G. agilis , C. glomerata , with which C. melitaearum does not compete for resources. After the one-time addition of the second parasitoid the natural populations of C. melitaearum declined in the treatment, as predicted by the apparent competition theory.  相似文献   

15.
    
Despite increasing frequency of invasions by alien plant species with widespread ecological and economic consequences, it remains unclear how belowground compartments of ecosystems are impacted. In order to synthetize current knowledge and provide future directions for research we performed a meta‐analysis assessing the impact of invasive alien plant species on soil fauna abundance. Compared to previous synthesis on this topic, we included together in our model the trophic group of each soil faunal taxa (from herbivores to predators) and habitat structure, namely open and closed habitats (i.e. grass and shrub dominated areas versus forested areas). In doing so, we highlighted that both moderators strongly interact to determine the response of soil fauna to the presence of invasive alien plants. Soil fauna abundance increase in the presence of invasive species only in closed habitats (+18.2%). This pattern of habitat‐dependent response (positive effect in closed habitats) was only found for primary consumers (i.e. herbivores +29.1% and detritivores +66.7%) within both detritus‐based and live root‐based trophic pathways. Abundances of predators and microbivores did not respond to the presence of IAS irrespective of habitat structure. For several groups, the habitat structure (open or closed) significantly drove their responses to the presence of invasive alien species. In addition, we carefully considered potential sources of bias (e.g. geographic, taxonomic and functional) within the collected data in an attempt to highlight gaps in available knowledge on the subject. Our findings support the conclusions of previous studies on the subject by demonstrating 1) that soil fauna abundance is impacted by biological invasions, 2) that initial habitat structure has a strong influence on the outcome and 3) that responses within the soil fauna differ between trophic levels with a stronger response of primary consumers.  相似文献   

16.
    
Abstract. 1. The effects of climate change on the distribution of species are typically inferred using bioclimatic envelope models, assuming either no or unrestricted dispersal abilities. Information on species‐specific dispersal abilities, especially of animals, is rarely incorporated. 2. We analysed European records of two damselflies and four dragonflies protected by the Habitats Directive of the European Union. In addition to no or unrestricted dispersal scenarios, we considered species‐specific dispersal distances based on literature information to improve realism in assessing conservation implications of climate change. The climate model HadCM3 and the emission scenario A2 were applied to project potential changes in occurrence probabilities up to 2035. As modelling algorithms, generalised linear models (GLM) and boosted regression trees (BRT) were used. 3. The species Coenagrion ornatum, Coenagrion mercuriale and Ophiogomphus cecilia are projected to lose range (up to −68%) when incorporating specific dispersal distances, while they are projected to extend their range (up to +23%) in the unrestricted dispersal scenario. Furthermore, suitable climatic conditions tend to decline for Leucorrhinia albifrons and Leucorrhina caudalis (up to −73%), whereas Leucorrhinia pectoralis is projected to gain distribution area (up to +37%) assuming either species‐specific or unrestricted dispersal and subsequently successful breeding. Cross‐validated model performance (AUC values) ranges between 0.77 and 0.92. 4. The integration of species‐specific knowledge about dispersal distances in species distribution models promises to improve estimates of potential range changes and their implications for conservation management. Contrasting model results under different dispersal scenarios highlight the importance of research on species’ ecology including dispersal distances.  相似文献   

17.
    
Facilitating coexistence between people and wildlife is a major conservation challenge in East Africa. Some conservation models aim to balance the needs of people and wildlife, but the effectiveness of these models is rarely assessed. Using a case‐study approach, we assessed the ecological performance of a pastoral area in northern Tanzania (Manyara Ranch) and established a long‐term wildlife population monitoring program (carried out intermittently from 2003 to 2008 and regularly from 2011 to 2019) embedded in a distance sampling framework. By comparing density estimates of the road transect‐based long‐term monitoring to estimates derived from systematically distributed transects, we found that the bias associated with nonrandom placement of transects was nonsignificant. Overall, cattle and sheep and goat reached the greatest densities and several wildlife species occurred at densities similar (zebra, wildebeest, waterbuck, Kirk's dik‐dik) or possibly even greater (giraffe, eland, lesser kudu, Grant's gazelle, Thomson's gazelle) than in adjacent national parks in the same ecosystem. Generalized linear mixed models suggested that most wildlife species (8 out of 14) reached greatest densities during the dry season, that wildlife population densities either remained constant or increased over the 17‐year period, and that herbivorous livestock species remained constant, while domestic dog population decreased over time. Cross‐species correlations did not provide evidence for interference competition between grazing or mixed livestock species and wildlife species but indicate possible negative relationships between domestic dog and warthog populations. Overall, wildlife and livestock populations in Manyara Ranch appear to coexist over the 17‐year span. Most likely, this is facilitated by existing connectivity to adjacent protected areas, effective anti‐poaching efforts, spatio‐temporal grazing restrictions, favorable environmental conditions of the ranch, and spatial heterogeneity of surface water and habitats. This long‐term case study illustrates the potential of rangelands to simultaneously support wildlife conservation and human livelihood goals if livestock grazing is restricted in space, time, and numbers.  相似文献   

18.
    
Poleward and upward species range shifts are the most commonly anticipated and studied consequences of climate warming. However, these global responses to climate change obscure more complex distribution change patterns. We hypothesize that the spatial arrangement of mountain ranges and, consequently, climatic gradients in Europe, will result in range disjunctions. This hypothesis was investigated for submountainous forest plant species at two temporal and spatial scales: (i) under future climate change (between 1950–2000 and 2061–2080 periods) at the European scale and (ii) under contemporary climate change (between 1914–1987 and 1997–2013 periods) at the French scale. We selected 97 submountainous forest plant species occurring in France, among which distribution data across Europe are available for 25 species. By projecting future distribution changes for the 25 submountainous plant species across Europe, we demonstrated that range disjunction is a likely consequence of future climate change. To assess whether it is already taking place, we used a large forest vegetation‐plot database covering the entire French territory over 100 years (1914–2013) and found an average decrease in frequency (?0.01 ± 0.004) in lowland areas for the 97 submountainous species – corresponding to a loss of 6% of their historical frequency – along with southward and upward range shifts, suggesting early signs of range disjunctions. Climate‐induced range disjunctions should be considered more carefully since they could have dramatic consequences on population genetics and the ability of species to face future climate changes.  相似文献   

19.
    
Climate change has led to phenological shifts in flowering plants and insect pollinators, causing concern that these shifts will disrupt plant-pollinator mutualisms. We experimentally investigated how shifts in flowering onset affect pollinator visitation for 14 native perennial plant species, six of which have exhibited shifts to earlier flowering over the last 70 years and eight of which have not. We manipulated flowering onset in greenhouses and then observed pollinator visitation in the field. Five of six species with historically advanced flowering received more visits when flowering was experimentally advanced, whereas seven of eight species with historically unchanged flowering received fewer visits when flowering earlier. This pattern suggests that species unconstrained by pollinators have advanced their flowering, whereas species constrained by pollinators have not. In contrast to current concern about phenological mismatches disrupting plant-pollinator mutualisms, mismatches at the onset of flowering are not occurring for most of our study species.  相似文献   

20.
    
Primary succession on bare ground surrounded by intact ecosystems is, during its first stages, characterized by predator‐dominated arthropod communities. However, little is known on what prey sustains these predators at the start of succession and which factors drive the structure of these food webs. As prey availability can be extremely patchy and episodic in pioneer stages, trophic networks might be highly variable. Moreover, the importance of allochthonous versus autochthonous food sources for these pioneer predators is mostly unknown. To answer these questions, the gut content of 1,832 arthropod predators, including four species of carabid beetles, two lycosid and several linyphiid spider species caught in early and late pioneer stages of three glacier forelands, was screened molecularly to track intraguild and extraguild trophic interactions among all major prey groups occurring in these systems. Two‐thirds of the 2,310 identified food detections were collembolans and intraguild prey, while one‐third were allochthonous flying insects. Predator identity and not successional stage or valley had by far the strongest impact on the trophic interaction patterns. Still, the variability of prey spectra increased significantly from early to late pioneer stage, as did the niche width of the predators. As such the structure of pioneer arthropod food webs in recently deglaciated Alpine habitats seems to be driven foremost by predator identity while site and early successional effects contribute to a lesser extent to food web variability. Our findings also suggest that in these pioneer sites, predatory arthropods depend less on allochthonous aeolian prey but are mainly sustained by prey of local production.  相似文献   

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