Pulmonary Tuberculosis Incidence and Risk Factors in Rural Areas of China: A Cohort Study

The incidence of tuberculosis (TB) and its risk factors in China remains unclear. This study examined TB incidence and relative risk factors in rural areas of China. Participants (n = 177,529) were recruited in Xiangtan County (in the central area of China) and in Danyang County (in the eastern area of China) in 2009 and a followed-up study was conducted for one year. The incidence density of pulmonary TB and smear-positive TB were 91.6 (95% CI: 78.7, 106.0) per 100,000 person-year and 36.7 (95% CI: 33.1, 52.4) per 100,000 person-year respectively in Xiangtan, and 47.3 (95% CI: 38.2, 57.5) per 100,000 person-year and 22.7 (95% CI: 16.5, 30.8) per 100,000 person-year in Danyang. The medical history of TB was associated with TB, with the relative risk (RR) of 7.00 (95% CI: 2.76, 17.18) in Xiangtan and that of 31.08 (95% CI: 13.22, 73.10) in Danyang. The association between TB and per capita living space over median was found in Xiangtan, with the RR of 1.86 (95% CI: 1.15, 3.01). No association was found between TB and the insurance status, the contact history with TB, the history of diabetes, smoking, or per capita annual income. The host genetic susceptibility, and social factors such as education and income could be considered in future studies.     

Glycemic Control and the Risk of Tuberculosis: A Cohort Study

BackgroundDiabetes is a well-known risk factor for tuberculosis (TB) and is increasingly prevalent in low- and middle-income countries, where the burden of TB is high. Glycemic control has the potential to modify the risk of TB. However, there are few studies on the association between glycemic control and TB risk, and the results are inconsistent.ConclusionsGood glycemic control could potentially modify the risk of TB among diabetic patients and may contribute to the control of TB in settings where diabetes and TB are prevalent.     

COPD and the Risk of Tuberculosis - A Population-Based Cohort Study

Background

Both chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and tuberculosis (TB) primarily affect the lungs and are major causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. COPD and TB have common risk factors such as smoking, low socioeconomic status and dysregulation of host defence functions. COPD is a prevalent co-morbid condition, especially in elderly with TB but in contrast to other diseases known to increase the risk of TB, relatively little is known about the specific relationship and impact from COPD on TB-incidence and mortality.

Methods and Findings

All individuals ≥40 years of age, discharged with a diagnosis of COPD from Swedish hospitals 1987–2003 were identified in the Swedish Inpatient Register (n = 115,867). Records were linked to the Swedish Tuberculosis Register 1989–2007 and the relative risk of active TB in patients with COPD compared to control subjects randomly selected from the general population (matched for sex, year of birth and county of residence) was estimated using Cox regression. The analyses were stratified by year of birth, sex and county of residence and adjusted for immigration status, socioeconomic status (SES) and inpatient co-morbidities previously known to increase the risk of TB. COPD patients had a three-fold increased hazard ratio (HR) of developing active TB (HR 3.0 (95% confidence interval 2.4 to 4.0)) that was mainly dependent on an increased risk of pulmonary TB. In addition, logistic regression estimates showed that COPD patients who developed active TB had a two-fold increased risk of death from all causes within first year after the TB diagnosis compared to the general population control subjects with TB (OR 2.2, 95% confidence interval 1.2 to 4.1).

Conclusions

This population-based study comprised of a large number of COPD patients shows that these patients have an increased risk of developing active TB compared to the general population. The results raise concerns that the increasing global burden of COPD will increase the incidence of active TB. The underlying contributory factors need to be disentangled in further studies.     

High Incidence of Ischemic Stroke Occurrence in Irradiated Lung Cancer Patients: A Population-Based Surgical Cohort Study

Background and Purpose

A high risk of stroke occurrence has been reported in several types of irradiated cancer patients. However, clinical data are lacking in irradiated lung cancer patients. The present study intended to explore a risk level of ischemic stroke occurrence in irradiated lung cancer patients.

Methods

A nationwide population-based database obtained from the Taiwan National Health Insurance was analyzed. Between 2003 and 2006, we recruited 560 resected lung cancer patients into two study groups: surgery-plus-irradiation (n = 112) and surgery-alone (n = 448). Patients treated with chemotherapy were excluded. Propensity score match was used for pairing cases with a ratio of 1∶4. Two-year ischemic-stroke-free survival was defined as the primary endpoint.

Results

Three observations supported a high risk of ischemic stroke occurrence in patients with postoperative irradiation when compared with those patients with surgery alone: first, a high incidence per 1,000 person-year (22.3 versus 11.2, 1.99 folds); second, a low two-year ischemic-stroke-free survival rate (92.2% versus 98.1%, P = 0.019); and third, a high adjusted hazard ratio (HR, 4.19; 95% CI, 1.44–12.22; P = 0.009). More notably, the highest risk of ischemic stroke occurrence was found in irradiated patients who had diabetes mellitus (HR, 34.74; 95% CI, 6.35->100; P<0.0001).

Conclusions

A high incidence of ischemic stroke was observed in irradiated lung cancer patients, especially in those with diabetes mellitus. For these patients, close clinical surveillance and strict diabetes control should be considered. Further studies to define detail biological mechanisms are encouraged.     

Predictors of Two Months Culture Conversion in Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis: Findings from a Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Various studies have reported culture conversion at two months as a predictor of successful treatment outcome in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB).

Objectives

The present study was conducted with the aim to evaluate the rate and predictors of culture conversion at two months in MDR-TB patients.

Methods

All confirmed pulmonary MDR-TB patients enrolled for treatment at Lady Reading Hospital Peshawar, Pakistan from 1 January to 31 December 2012 and met the inclusion criteria were reviewed retrospectively. Rate and predictors of culture conversion at two months were evaluated.

Results

Eighty seven (53.4%) out of 163 patients achieved culture conversion at two months. In a multivariate analysis lung cavitation at baseline chest X-ray (P = 0.006, OR = 0.349), resistance to ofloxacin (P = 0.041, OR = 0.193) and streptomycin (P = 0.017, OR = 0.295) had statistically significant (P<0.05) negative association with culture conversion at two months.

Conclusion

A reasonable proportion of patients achieved culture conversion at two months. Factors negatively associated with culture conversion at two months can be easily identified either before diagnosis or early in the course of MDR-TB treatment. This may help in better care of individual patients by identifying them early and treating them vigorously.     

Diabetes Mellitus,Smoking Status,and Rate of Sputum Culture Conversion in Patients with Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis: A Cohort Study from the Country of Georgia

Introduction

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a risk factor for active tuberculosis (TB) but little is known about the effect of DM on culture conversion among patients with multidrug-resistant (MDR)-TB. The primary aim was to estimate the association between DM and rate of TB sputum culture conversion. A secondary objective was to estimate the association between DM and the risk of poor treatment outcomes among patients with MDR-TB.

Materials and Methods

A cohort of all adult patients starting MDR-TB treatment in the country of Georgia between 2009–2011 was followed during second-line TB therapy. Cox proportional models were used to estimate the adjusted hazard rate of sputum culture conversion. Log-binomial regression models were used to estimate the cumulative risk of poor TB treatment outcome.

Results

Among 1,366 patients with sputum culture conversion information, 966 (70.7%) had culture conversion and the median time to conversion was 68 days (interquartile range 50–120). The rate of conversion was similar among patients with MDR-TB and DM (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.95, 95%CI 0.71–1.28) compared to patients with MDR-TB only. The rate of culture conversion was significantly less in patients that currently smoked (aHR 0.82, 95%CI 0.71–0.95), had low body mass index (aHR 0.71, 95%CI 0.59–0.84), second-line resistance (aHR 0.56, 95%CI 0.43–0.73), lung cavities (aHR 0.70, 95%CI 0.59–0.83) and with disseminated TB (aHR 0.75, 95%CI 0.62–0.90). The cumulative risk of poor treatment outcome was also similar among TB patients with and without DM (adjusted risk ratio [aRR] 1.03, 95%CI 0.93–1.14).

Conclusions

In adjusted analyses, DM did not impact culture conversion rates in a clinically meaningful way but smoking did.     

High Prevalence of Pulmonary Tuberculosis but Low Sensitivity of Symptom Screening among HIV-Infected Pregnant Women in South Africa

Symptom screening is a recommended component of intensified case-finding (ICF) for pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) among HIV-infected individuals. Symptomatic individuals are further investigated to either exclude or diagnose pulmonary TB, thus reducing the number of individuals requiring costly laboratory investigation. Those with laboratory evaluations negative for pulmonary TB or who lack symptoms may be eligible for antiretroviral therapy (ART) and/or TB isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT). A four-part symptom screen has been recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) for identifying TB suspects and those unlikely to have TB. A meta-analysis of studies among HIV-infected individuals calculated a sensitivity of 90.1% for the four-part symptoms screen - of any of cough, fever, night sweats, or weight loss - among patients in clinical care, making it an effective tool for identifying most patients with TB. An important population for intensified case-finding not included in that meta-analysis was HIV-infected pregnant women. We undertook a cross-sectional survey among HIV-infected pregnant women receiving prenatal care at community clinics in South Africa. We obtained a four-symptom review and sputum smear microscopy and mycobacterial culture on all participants. Among 1415 women, 226 (16%) had a positive symptom screen, and 35 (2.5%) were newly diagnosed with culture-positive TB. Twelve were on TB treatment at the time of screening, yielding 47 (3.3%) women with prevalent TB. Symptom screening among women without known TB had a sensitivity of 28% and specificity of 84%. The poor performance of symptom screening to identify women with TB suggests that other approaches may be needed for intensified case-finding to be effective for this population.     

Factors Affecting Time to Sputum Culture Conversion in Adults with Pulmonary Tuberculosis: A Historical Cohort Study without Censored Cases

Background

In patients with pulmonary tuberculosis (TB), shortening the time to sputum culture conversion is desirable to reduce the likelihood of mycobacterial transmission. A persistent positive sputum culture after 2 months of treatment is reported to be associated with the presence of cavitation and the extent of disease on chest X-ray, high colony count, diabetes mellitus, and smoking. However, little is known about factors affecting the time to sputum culture conversion. This study was conducted to evaluate factors affecting the time to sputum culture conversion throughout the course of treatment in adults with pulmonary TB.

Methods

This study was performed using a database of the medical records of patients with active pulmonary TB who were treated at Hirakata Kohsai Hospital in Hirakata City, Osaka, Japan, from October 2000 to October 2002. Cox proportional-hazards analysis was used to evaluate factors affecting the time to sputum culture conversion after adjusting for potential confounders.

Results

The data of 86 patients with pulmonary TB were analyzed. The median time to sputum culture conversion was 39 days, and the maximum time was 116 days. The Cox proportional-hazards analysis showed that a higher smear grading (HR, 0.40; 95%CI, 0.23–0.71) and a history of ever smoking (HR, 0.48; 95%CI, 0.25–0.94) were associated with delayed sputum culture conversion.

Conclusion

High smear grading and smoking prolonged the time to sputum culture conversion in adults with pulmonary TB. To effectively control TB, measures to decrease the cigarette smoking rate should be implemented, in addition to early detection and timely anti-TB treatment.     

Transmission of Multidrug-Resistant and Drug-Susceptible Tuberculosis within Households: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

The “fitness” of an infectious pathogen is defined as the ability of the pathogen to survive, reproduce, be transmitted, and cause disease. The fitness of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDRTB) relative to drug-susceptible tuberculosis is cited as one of the most important determinants of MDRTB spread and epidemic size. To estimate the relative fitness of drug-resistant tuberculosis cases, we compared the incidence of tuberculosis disease among the household contacts of MDRTB index patients to that among the contacts of drug-susceptible index patients.

Methods and Findings

This 3-y (2010–2013) prospective cohort household follow-up study in South Lima and Callao, Peru, measured the incidence of tuberculosis disease among 1,055 household contacts of 213 MDRTB index cases and 2,362 household contacts of 487 drug-susceptible index cases.A total of 35/1,055 (3.3%) household contacts of 213 MDRTB index cases developed tuberculosis disease, while 114/2,362 (4.8%) household contacts of 487 drug-susceptible index patients developed tuberculosis disease. The total follow-up time for drug-susceptible tuberculosis contacts was 2,620 person-years, while the total follow-up time for MDRTB contacts was 1,425 person-years. Using multivariate Cox regression to adjust for confounding variables including contact HIV status, contact age, socio-economic status, and index case sputum smear grade, the hazard ratio for tuberculosis disease among MDRTB household contacts was found to be half that for drug-susceptible contacts (hazard ratio 0.56, 95% CI 0.34–0.90, p = 0.017). The inference of transmission in this study was limited by the lack of genotyping data for household contacts. Capturing incident disease only among household contacts may also limit the extrapolation of these findings to the community setting.

Conclusions

The low relative fitness of MDRTB estimated by this study improves the chances of controlling drug-resistant tuberculosis. However, fitter multidrug-resistant strains that emerge over time may make this increasingly difficult.     

Contact Investigation in Households of Patients with Tuberculosis in Hanoi,Vietnam: A Prospective Cohort Study

Setting

Existing tuberculosis control strategies in Vietnam are based on symptomatic patients attending health services for investigation. This approach has not resulted in substantial reductions in the prevalence of tuberculosis disease, despite the National Tuberculosis Program achieving high treatment completion rates. Alternative approaches are being considered.

Objective

To determine the feasibility and yield of contact investigation in households of patients with smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis among household members of tuberculosis patients in Hanoi, Vietnam.

Methods

Household contacts of patients with smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis were recruited at four urban and rural District Tuberculosis Units in Hanoi. Clinical and radiological screening was conducted at baseline, six months and 12 months. Sputum microscopy and culture was performed in contacts suspected of having tuberculosis. MIRU-VNTR molecular testing was used to compare the strains of patients and their contacts with disease.

Results

Among 545 household contacts of 212 patients, four were diagnosed with tuberculosis at baseline (prevalence 734 cases per 100,000 persons, 95% CI 17–1451) and one was diagnosed with tuberculosis during the subsequent 12 months after initial screening (incidence 180 cases per 100,000 person-years, 95% CI 44–131). Two of these cases were culture positive for M. tuberculosis and both had identical or near-identical MIRU-VNTR strain types.

Conclusion

Household contacts of patients with potentially infectious forms of tuberculosis have a high prevalence of disease. Household contact investigation is feasible in Vietnam. Further research is required to investigate its effectiveness.     

Incidence and Treatment of Developmental Hip Dysplasia in Mongolia: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

In Mongolia, adequate early diagnosis and treatment of developmental hip dysplasia (DDH) have been unavailable and its incidence was unknown. We determined the incidence of ultrasonographic DDH in newborns and established adequate procedures for diagnosis and treatment of DDH at the largest maternity hospital in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.

Methodology/Principal Findings

During one year (Sept 2010 – Aug 2011) we assessed the hips newborns using ultrasound and Graf’s classification of DDH. 8,356 newborns were screened; median age at screening was 1 day. We identified 14,873 Type 1 (89.0%), 1715 Type 2a (10.3%), 36 Type 2c (0.2%), 70 Type D (0.4%), 14 Type 3 (0.08%), and 4 Type 4 hips (0.02%). Children with Type 1 hips (normal) were discharged. Children with Type 2a hips (physiologically immature) received follow-up ultrasounds at monthly intervals. Children with Type 2c to 4 (DDH; deformed or misaligned hip joint) hips were treated with a Tubingen hip flexion splint and also followed up. The hip abnormalities resolved to mature hips in all children who were followed up. There was no evidence for severe treatment related complications.

Conclusion/Significance

This study suggests that the incidence of DDH in Mongolian neonates is comparable to that in neonates in Europe. Early ultrasound-based assessment and splinting treatment of DDH led to mature hips in all children followed up. Procedures are feasible and will be continued.     

Predictive Modeling for Diagnostic Tests with High Specificity,but Low Sensitivity: A Study of the Glycerol Test in Patients with Suspected Menière’s Disease

A high specificity does not ensure that the expected benefit of a diagnostic test outweighs its cost. Problems arise, in particular, when the investigation is expensive, the prevalence of a positive test result is relatively small for the candidate patients, and the sensitivity of the test is low so that the information provided by a negative result is virtually negligible. The consequence may be that a potentially useful test does not gain broader acceptance. Here we show how predictive modeling can help to identify patients for whom the ratio of expected benefit and cost reaches an acceptable level so that testing these patients is reasonable even though testing all patients might be considered wasteful. Our application example is based on a retrospective study of the glycerol test, which is used to corroborate a suspected diagnosis of Menière’s disease. Using the pretest hearing thresholds at up to 10 frequencies, predictions were made by K-nearest neighbor classification or logistic regression. Both methods estimate, based on results from previous patients, the posterior probability that performing the considered test in a new patient will have a positive outcome. The quality of the prediction was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, making various assumptions about the costs and benefits of testing. With reference to all 356 cases, the probability of a positive test result was almost 0.4. For subpopulations selected by K-nearest neighbor classification, which was clearly superior to logistic regression, this probability could be increased up to about 0.6. Thus, the odds of a positive test result were more than doubled.     

The Incidence,Clinical Outcomes,and Risk Factors of Thrombocytopenia in Intra-Abdominal Infection Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Studies on the incidence and risk factors of thrombocytopenia among intra-abdominal infection patients remain absent, hindering efficacy assessments regarding thrombocytopenia prevention strategies.

Methods

We retrospectively studied 267 consecutively enrolled patients with intra-abdominal infections. Occurrence of thrombocytopenia was scanned for all patients. All-cause 28-day mortality was recorded. Variables from univariate analyses that were associated with occurrence of hospital-acquired thrombocytopenia were included in a multivariable logistic regression analysis to determine thrombocytopenia predictors.

Results

Median APACHE II score and SOFA score of the whole cohort was 12 and 3 respectively. The overall ICU mortality was 7.87% and the 28-day mortality was 8.98%. The incidence of thrombocytopenia among intra-abdominal infection patients was 21.73%. Regardless of preexisting or hospital-acquired one, thrombocytopenia is associated with an increased ICU mortality and 28-day mortality as well as length of ICU or hospital stay. A higher SOFA and ISTH score at admission were significant hospital-acquired thrombocytopenia risk factors.

Conclusions

This is the first study to identify a high incidence of thrombocytopenia in patients with intra-abdominal infections. Our findings suggest that the inflammatory milieu of intra-abdominal infections may uniquely predispose those patients to thrombocytopenia. More effective thrombocytopenia prevention strategies are necessary in intra-abdominal infection patients.     

Relatively Low HIV Infection Rates in Rural Uganda,but with High Potential for a Rise: A Cohort Study in Kayunga District,Uganda

Background

Few studies have been conducted in Uganda to identify and quantify the determinants of HIV-1 infection. We report results from a community-based cohort study, whose primary objectives were to determine HIV-1 prevalence, incidence, and determinants of these infections, among other objectives.

Methodology

Consenting volunteers from the rural district of Kayunga in Uganda aged 15–49 years were enrolled between March and July 2006. Participants were evaluated every six months. A questionnaire that collected information on behavioral and other HIV-1 risk factors was administered, and a blood sample obtained for laboratory analysis at each study visit.

Principal Findings

HIV-1 prevalence among the 2025 participants was 9.9% (95% CI = 8.6%–11.2%). By the end of 12 months of follow-up, 1689.7 person-years had been accumulated, with a median follow-up time of 11.97 months. Thirteen HIV-1 incident cases were detected giving an annual HIV-1 incidence of 0.77% (95% CI = 0.35–1.19). Prevalence of HSV-2 infection was 57% and was strongly associated with prevalent HIV-1 infection (adjusted Odds Ratio = 3.9, 95% CI = 2.50–6.17); as well as incident HIV-1 infection (adjusted Rate Ratio (RR) = 8.7, 95% CI = 1.11–67.2). The single most important behavioral characteristic associated with incident HIV infection was the number of times in the past 6 months, a participant had sex with person(s) they suspected/knew were having sex with others; attaining statistical significance at 10 times and higher (adjusted RR = 6.3, 95% CI = 1.73–23.1). By the end of 12 months of follow-up, 259 participants (13%) were lost to follow-up, 13 (0.6%) had died, and 2 (0.1%) had withdrawn consent.

Conclusions

Despite relatively low HIV-1 incidence observed in this community, prevalence remains relatively high. In the presence of high prevalence of HSV-2 infection and the behavioral characteristic of having sex with more than one partner, there is potential for increase in HIV-1 incidence.     

Dietary Diversity,Diet Cost,and Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in the United Kingdom: A Prospective Cohort Study

BackgroundDiet is a key modifiable risk factor for multiple chronic conditions, including type 2 diabetes (T2D). Consuming a range of foods from the five major food groups is advocated as critical to healthy eating, but the association of diversity across major food groups with T2D is not clear and the relationship of within-food-group diversity is unknown. In addition, there is a growing price gap between more and less healthy foods, which may limit the uptake of varied diets. The current study had two aims: first, to examine the association of reported diversity of intake of food groups as well as their subtypes with risk of developing T2D, and second, to estimate the monetary cost associated with dietary diversity.ConclusionsA diet characterized by regular consumption of all five food groups and by greater variety of dairy, fruit, and vegetable subtypes, appears important for a reduced risk of diabetes. However, such a diet is more expensive. Public health efforts to prevent diabetes should include food price policies to promote healthier, more varied diets.     

A Large Cohort of Hemoglobin Variants in Thailand: Molecular Epidemiological Study and Diagnostic Consideration

Background

Hemoglobin (Hb) variants are structurally inherited changes of globin chains. Accurate diagnoses of these variants are important for planning of appropriate management and genetic counseling. Since no epidemiological study has been conducted before, we have investigated frequencies, molecular and hematological features of Hb variants found in a large cohort of Thai subjects.

Materials and Methods

Study was conducted on 26,013 unrelated subjects, inhabiting in all geographical parts of Thailand over a period of 11 years from January 2002-December 2012. Hb analysis was done on high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) or capillary electrophoresis (CE). Mutations causing Hb variants were identified using PCR and related techniques.

Results

Among 26,013 subjects investigated, 636 (2.4%) were found to carry Hb variants. Of these 636 subjects, 142 (22.4%) carried α-chain variants with 13 different mutations. The remaining included 451 (70.9%) cases with 16 β-chain variants, 37 (5.8%) cases with Hb Lepore (δβ-hybrid Hb) and 6 (0.9%) cases with a single δ-chain variant. The most common α-globin chain variant was the Hb Q-Thailand (α^{74GAC-CAC, Asp-His}) which was found in 101 cases (15.8%). For β-globin chain variants, Hb Hope (β^{136GGT-GAT, Gly-Asp}) and Hb Tak (β^{146+AC, Ter-Thr}) are the two most common ones, found in 121 (19.0%) and 90 (14.2%) cases, respectively. Seven Hb variants have never been found in Thai population. Hb analysis profiles on HPLC or CE of these variants were illustrated to guide presumptive diagnostics.

Conclusions

Hb variants are common and heterogeneous in Thai population. With varieties of thalassemias and hemoglobinopathies in the population, interactions between them leading to complex syndromes are common and render their diagnoses difficult in routine practices. Knowledge of the spectrum, molecular basis, genotype-phenotype correlation and diagnostic features should prove useful for prevention and control of the diseases in the region.