An SEIQR model for childhood diseases

It has been shown that the inclusion of an isolated class in the classical SIR model for childhood diseases can be responsible for self-sustained oscillations. Hence, the recurrent outbreaks of such diseases can be caused by autonomous, deterministic factors. We extend the model to include a latent class (i.e. individuals who are infected with the disease, but are not yet able to pass the disease to others) and study the resulting dynamics. The existence of Hopf bifurcations is shown for the model, as well as a homoclinic bifurcation for a perturbation to the model. For historical data on scarlet fever in England, our model agrees with the epidemiological data much more closely than the model without the latent class. For other childhood diseases, our model suggests that isolation is unlikely to be a major factor in sustained oscillations.      

Allometric scaling and seasonality in the epidemics of wildlife diseases

We present a susceptibles-exposed-infectives (SEI) model to analyze the effects of seasonality on epidemics, mainly of rabies, in a wide range of wildlife species. Model parameters are cast as simple allometric functions of host body size. Via nonlinear analysis, we investigate the dynamical behavior of the disease for different levels of seasonality in the transmission rate and for different values of the pathogen basic reproduction number (R(0)) over a broad range of body sizes. While the unforced SEI model exhibits long-term epizootic cycles only for large values of R(0), the seasonal model exhibits multiyear periodicity for small values of R(0). The oscillation period predicted by the seasonal model is consistent with those observed in the field for different host species. These conclusions are not affected by alternative assumptions for the shape of seasonality or for the parameters that exhibit seasonal variations. However, the introduction of host immunity (which occurs for rabies in some species and is typical of many other wildlife diseases) significantly modifies the epidemic dynamics; in this case, multiyear cycling requires a large level of seasonal forcing. Our analysis suggests that the explicit inclusion of periodic forcing in models of wildlife disease may be crucial to correctly describe the epidemics of wildlife that live in strongly seasonal environments.     

Exploring the drivers of wildlife population dynamics from insufficient data by Bayesian model averaging

A long-standing interest in ecology and wildlife management is to find drivers of wildlife population dynamics because it is crucial for implementing the effective wildlife management. Recent studies have demonstrated the usefulness of state-space modeling for this purpose, but we often confront the lack of the necessary time-series data. This is particularly common in wildlife management because of limited funds or early stage of data collection. In this study, we proposed a Bayesian model averaging technique in a state-space modeling framework for identifying the drivers of wildlife population dynamics from limited data. To exemplify the utility of Bayesian model averaging for wildlife management, we illustrate here the population dynamics of wild boars Sus scrofa in Chiba prefecture, central Japan. Despite the fact that our data are limited in both temporal and spatial resolution, Bayesian model averaging revealed the potential influence of bamboo forests and abandoned agricultural fields on wild boar population dynamics, and largely enhanced model predictability compared to the full model. Although Bayesian model averaging is not commonly used in ecology and wildlife management, our case study demonstrated that it may help to find influential drivers of wildlife population dynamics and develop a better management plan even from limited time-series data.     

Global stability for an SEI model of infectious diseases with immigration and age structure in susceptibility

In this paper, we propose an SEI age-structured model for infectious diseases where the susceptibility depends on the age and with immigration of new individuals into the susceptible, exposed and infectious classes. The existence of a global attractor and the asymptotic smoothness of the solution semi-flow generated by the model are addressed. Using a Lyapunov functional, we show that the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.     

Two decades of wildlife rehabilitation in Greece: Major threats,admission trends and treatment outcomes from a prominent rehabilitation centre

The ultimate goal of Wildlife Rehabilitation Centres is to release wild animals back into the wild, after providing care and treatment according to protocol. The data collected during the process though, can be an invaluable resource of information, and act as a proxy of the anthropogenic impact on wild populations. They can even help to propose mitigation and conservation measures that could reduce pressure on wildlife. In the current study, we analysed the records of ANIMA, a prominent Wildlife Rehabilitation Centre in Athens, Greece, over a 17-year study period. Using a database of 54,445 animals representing 353 species from 104 families, we draw connections between the magnitude of admission causes and their predicted outcomes based on the animals admitted. We found that while many animals that are admitted as orphans or after living in captivity have good chances of being released, that is not the case for victims of electrocution or domestic animal attacks. Illegal shooting is clearly present in our data and seems to also affect wild populations negatively. We highlight the importance of Wildlife Rehabilitation Centres’ data towards understanding and defining human impact on wildlife, the importance of communicating the results to policymakers for biodiversity conservation and even proposing possible management directions. In that context, we also urge for more population monitoring field studies, so that admission data can be accurately combined and make meaningful predictions for the status of wild populations.     

具有脉冲生育和脉冲收获的时滞SEI害虫治理模型的动力学分析

根据控制害虫的生物策略,考虑了一个不同时刻害虫具有脉冲生育和对害虫进行脉冲收获的时滞的SEI害虫治理模型.我们证明了系统所有的解都是一致有界的,同时获得了无病周期解是全局吸引的充分条件.进一步,得到了具有时滞的系统持续生存的充分条件.基于研究所得到的结果,作者提出了害虫治理的一些合理建议.     

Interrelation Between External Pressure,SEI Structure,and Electrodeposit Morphology in an Anode-Free Lithium Metal Battery

The interrelation is explored between external pressure (0.1, 1, and 10 MPa), solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) structure/morphology, and lithium metal plating/stripping behavior. To simulate anode-free lithium metal batteries (AF-LMBs) analysis is performed on “empty” Cu current collectors in standard carbonate electrolyte. Lower pressure promotes organic-rich SEI and macroscopically heterogeneous, filament-like Li electrodeposits interspersed with pores. Higher pressure promotes inorganic F-rich SEI with more uniform and denser Li film. A “seeding layer” of lithiated pristine graphene (pG@Cu) favors an anion-derived F-rich SEI and promotes uniform metal electrodeposition, enabling extended electrochemical stability at a lower pressure. State-of-the-art electrochemical performance is achieved at 1MPa: pG-enabled half-cell is stable after 300 h (50 cycles) at 1 mA cm⁻² rate −3 mAh cm⁻² capacity (17.5 µm plated/stripped), with cycling Coulombic efficiency (CE) of 99.8%. AF-LMB cells with high mass loading NMC622 cathode (21 mg cm⁻²) undergo 200 cycles with a CE of 99.4% at C/5-charge and C/2-discharge (1C = 178 mAh g⁻¹). Density functional theory (DFT) highlights the differences in the adsorption energy of solvated-Li⁺ onto various crystal planes of Cu (100), (110), and (111), versus lithiated/delithiated (0001) graphene, giving insight regarding the role of support surface energetics in promoting SEI heterogeneity.     

The Impact of Initial SEI Formation Conditions on Strain‐Induced Capacity Losses in Silicon Electrodes

The solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) that passivates silicon surfaces in Li ion batteries is subjected to extremely large mechanical strains during electrochemical cycling. The resulting degradation of these SEI films is a critical problem that limits the cycle life of silicon‐based electrodes. With the complex multiphase microstructure in conventional porous electrodes, it is not possible to directly measure the impact of these strains on SEI formation and capacity loss. To overcome this limitation a new in situ method is presented for applying controlled mechanical strains to SEI during electrochemical cycling. This approach uses patterned silicon films with different sized islands that act as model electrode particles. During lithiation/delithiation, the lateral expansion/contraction of the island edges applies in plane strains to the SEI. Detailed analysis of the island size effect then provides quantitative measurements of the impact of strain on the excess capacity losses that occur in different potential ranges. One key finding is that the applied strains lead to large capacity losses during lithiation only (during all cycles). Also, employing fast and slow SEI formation (first cycle) leads to large differences in the strain‐induced losses that occur during subsequent cycling.     

Intraspecific scaling of flight power in the bat Glossophaga soricina (Phyllostomidae)

Aerodynamic theory predicts that power output during flight should vary with body mass by an exponent of 1.56 when wing morphology remains constant (within an individual), and by an exponent of 1.19 when wing morphology changes with body mass (within a species or between species). I tested these predictions by estimating the power input during horizontal flight in three pregnant and two subadult Glossophaga soricina using a multivariate regression model. This analysis yielded power input during resting and flight as well as the energetic equivalent of change in body mass. A comparison of the estimated flight power for pregnant G. soricina, with published data on flight power of non-pregnant adults, revealed that energy turnover in flight is highest for pregnant G. soricina. Flight power of a 13-g pregnant G. soricina was even higher than that of a 16-g non-pregnant Glossophaga longirostris. A least-squares regression analysis yielded the following equations for the intraspecific scaling of flight power with body mass: power input during horizontal flight (P _f )=24099 body mass (bm; kg)^2.15 (r ²=0.97) for the intra-individual allometry (pregnancy) and P _f =113 bm(kg)^0.95 (r ²=0.99) for the inter-individual allometry (ontogeny). Both mass exponents are not significantly different from the predicted values for the scaling relationship of flight power within an individual (1.56) and within a species (1.19). This is the first measurement of power input during flight for subadult and pregnant bats. Accepted: 11 May 2000     

Within-twig biomass allocation in subtropical evergreen broad-leaved species along an altitudinal gradient: allometric scaling analysis

We studied the effects of twig size and altitude on biomass allocation within plant twigs (terminal branches of current-year shoots), to determine whether species with large twigs/leaves or living at low altitude allocate a higher proportion of biomass to laminas than their counterparts with small twigs/leaves or living at high altitude. Stem mass, lamina mass and area, and petiole mass were measured for terminal branches of current-year shoots in 80 subtropical evergreen broad-leaved species belonging to 38 genera from 24 families along an altitudinal gradient of Mt. Emei, Southwest China. The scaling relationships between the biomass allocations of within-twig components were determined using model type II regression method. Isometric relationships were found between leaf mass and twig mass and between lamina mass and twig mass, suggesting that the biomass allocation to either leaves or laminas was independent of twig mass. Petiole mass disproportionally increased with both lamina mass and twig mass, indicating the importance of leaf petioles to the within-twig biomass allocation. These cross-species correlations were consistent with those among evolutionary divergences. In addition, species at low altitude tended to have a greater leaf and lamina mass but a smaller stem mass at a given twig mass than at middle and high altitudes. This is possibly due to the high requirement in physical support and the low efficiency of eco-physiological transport for the species living at high altitude. In general, within-twig biomass allocation pattern was not significantly affected by twig size but was greatly modulated by altitude.     

Local community attitudes to wildlife utilisation in the changing economic and social context of Mongolia

In recent years illegal hunting has increased in Mongolia, putting considerable pressure on large mammals populations. The causes for this phenomenon lie in increasing rural poverty, ineffective policies to regulate hunting, as well as a ready market for many wildlife products in the Chinese medicine markets of east Asia. It is now accepted that biodiversity is ultimately lost or conserved at the local level and it is therefore imperative that the perspectives of the local people are better understood if wildlife management programmes are to be sustainable. This research uses a grounded theory approach to investigate local community attitudes to wildlife utilisation and to explore what local people consider as a sustainable wildlife management strategy in remoter regions of Mongolia. The findings clearly suggest that the current situation is not conducive to sustainability either of wildlife populations or human livelihoods. Important changes are needed if sustainability is to be achieved, including alterations to property rights, greater government support, and improved marketing skills and employment opportunities from wildlife. Linked to all of the above points is the need to address the serious information deficit experienced in rural Mongolia to enable local people to examine critically the issues at hand and to participate actively in solutions.     

Differential scaling patterns of vertebrae and the evolution of neck length in mammals

Almost all mammals have seven vertebrae in their cervical spines. This consistency represents one of the most prominent examples of morphological stasis in vertebrae evolution. Hence, the requirements associated with evolutionary modifications of neck length have to be met with a fixed number of vertebrae. It has not been clear whether body size influences the overall length of the cervical spine and its inner organization (i.e., if the mammalian neck is subject to allometry). Here, we provide the first large‐scale analysis of the scaling patterns of the cervical spine and its constituting cervical vertebrae. Our findings reveal that the opposite allometric scaling of C1 and C2–C7 accommodate the increase of neck bending moment with body size. The internal organization of the neck skeleton exhibits surprisingly uniformity in the vast majority of mammals. Deviations from this general pattern only occur under extreme loading regimes associated with particular functional and allometric demands. Our results indicate that the main source of variation in the mammalian neck stems from the disparity of overall cervical spine length. The mammalian neck reveals how evolutionary disparity manifests itself in a structure that is otherwise highly restricted by meristic constraints.     

Local livelihoods and institutions in managing wildlife ecosystems: The case of Babile Elephant Sanctuary in Ethiopia

This paper analyzes inherent incentives and institutional challenges in managing elephant sanctuary ecosystems, using the case of the Babile Elephant Sanctuary in Ethiopia. The study was based on the data collected from local communities experiencing different livelihood systems and experts from the local state authorities. A total of 35 interviews were conducted for an in-depth case study. Results show that historical and socio-political factors have undermined the effectiveness of state-based institutions in managing the ecosystem. The welfare loss of local communities relying on the ecosystem has resulted in a dispute between the state managing the ecosystem and those holding customary rights to the delineated land. Absence of adequate compensation for the crop damage by elephants has made the local people to regard the state intervention as unfair action. The study suggests the need to search for institutional frameworks that can transform hostile relationship into a mutually beneficial one. Such condition may ensure humans’ peaceful co-existence with the wildlife without destroying the habitat and constraining sustainable livelihoods.     

An empirical assessment of tree branching networks and implications for plant allometric scaling models

Several theories predict whole‐tree function on the basis of allometric scaling relationships assumed to emerge from traits of branching networks. To test this key assumption, and more generally, to explore patterns of external architecture within and across trees, we measure branch traits (radii/lengths) and calculate scaling exponents from five functionally divergent species. Consistent with leading theories, including metabolic scaling theory, branching is area preserving and statistically self‐similar within trees. However, differences among scaling exponents calculated at node‐ and whole‐tree levels challenge the assumption of an optimised, symmetrically branching tree. Furthermore, scaling exponents estimated for branch length change across branching orders, and exponents for scaling metabolic rate with plant size (or number of terminal tips) significantly differ from theoretical predictions. These findings, along with variability in the scaling of branch radii being less than for branch lengths, suggest extending current scaling theories to include asymmetrical branching and differential selective pressures in plant architectures.     

Effects of density-dependent migrations on stability of a two-patch predator-prey model

We consider a predator-prey model in a two-patch environment and assume that migration between patches is faster than prey growth, predator mortality and predator-prey interactions. Prey (resp. predator) migration rates are considered to be predator (resp. prey) density-dependent. Prey leave a patch at a migration rate proportional to the local predator density. Predators leave a patch at a migration rate inversely proportional to local prey population density. Taking advantage of the two different time scales, we use aggregation methods to obtain a reduced (aggregated) model governing the total prey and predator densities. First, we show that for a large class of density-dependent migration rules for predators and prey there exists a unique and stable equilibrium for migration. Second, a numerical bifurcation analysis is presented. We show that bifurcation diagrams obtained from the complete and aggregated models are consistent with each other for reasonable values of the ratio between the two time scales, fast for migration and slow for local demography. Our results show that, under some particular conditions, the density dependence of migrations can generate a limit cycle. Also a co-dim two Bautin bifurcation point is observed in some range of migration parameters and this implies that bistability of an equilibrium and limit cycle is possible.     

The role of wetlands in wildlife migration in the Tarangire ecosystem,Tanzania

Twenty-two years of rainfall data from six sites, 5 years of animal migration data and 2 years of water quality at 13 sites were explored to quantify the role of water in the Tarangire ecosystem. Inter-annual fluctuations in rainfall were large and not predictable solely from the Southern Oscillation Index. Seasonal fluctuations of rainfall were pronounced, with marked wet and dry seasons. In the dry season, the only drinking water available for wildlife was the Tarangire River and a number of small, scattered wetland-fringed water holes. Their salinity was often high (>8 ppt) and was higher in dry years than in wet years, as well as at the start of the wet season. Water quantity and quality may control the annual migration of wildebeest, zebra, elephants and buffaloes. These animals aggregate in the dry season in areas with the least salty water. The timing of seasonal variations in rainfall is largely predictable and controls annual migration. All wildebeest and most zebras migrated out of Tarangire National Park and into the wider Tarangire ecosystem at the start of the wet season, and they returned into the park in the dry season. Some elephants and buffaloes also migrated in out of the park and a larger resident population remained, whose size may vary inter-annually depending on surface water quantity and quality. The extent of the migration zone may also vary inter-annually.This revised version wa published online in March 2005 with corrections to the issue cover date.     

Multistability in an age-structured model of hematopoiesis: Cyclical neutropenia

Cyclical neutropenia (CN) is a rare hematopoietic disorder in which the patient's neutrophil level drops to extremely low levels for a few days approximately every three weeks. CN is effectively treated with granulocyte colony stimulating factor (G-CSF), which is known to interfere with apoptosis in neutrophil precursors and to consequently increase the circulating neutrophil level. However, G-CSF treatment usually fails to eliminate the oscillation. In this study, we establish an age-structured model of hematopoiesis, which reduces to a set of four delay differential equations with specific forms of initial functions. We numerically investigate the possible stable solutions of the model equations with respect to changes in the parameters as well as the initial conditions. The results show that the hematopoietic system possesses multistability for parameters typical of the normal healthy state. From our numerical results, decreasing the proliferation rate of neutrophil precursors or increasing the stem cell death rate are two possible mechanisms to induce cyclical neutropenia, and the periods of the resulting oscillations are independent of the changing parameters. We also discuss the dependence of the model solution on the initial condition at normal parameter values corresponding to a healthy state. Using insight from our results we design a hybrid treatment method that is able to abolish the oscillations in CN.     

Stepping in Elton's footprints: a general scaling model for body masses and trophic levels across ecosystems

Despite growing awareness of the significance of body-size and predator-prey body-mass ratios for the stability of ecological networks, our understanding of their distribution within ecosystems is incomplete. Here, we study the relationships between predator and prey size, body-mass ratios and predator trophic levels using body-mass estimates of 1313 predators (invertebrates, ectotherm and endotherm vertebrates) from 35 food-webs (marine, stream, lake and terrestrial). Across all ecosystem and predator types, except for streams (which appear to have a different size structure in their predator-prey interactions), we find that (1) geometric mean prey mass increases with predator mass with a power-law exponent greater than unity and (2) predator size increases with trophic level. Consistent with our theoretical derivations, we show that the quantitative nature of these relationships implies systematic decreases in predator-prey body-mass ratios with the trophic level of the predator. Thus, predators are, on an average, more similar in size to their prey at the top of food-webs than that closer to the base. These findings contradict the traditional Eltonian paradigm and have implications for our understanding of body-mass constraints on food-web topology, community dynamics and stability.     

Global dynamics of an SIRS epidemic model with saturation incidence

In this paper, the dynamical behavior of an SIRS epidemic model with birth pulse, pulse vaccination, and saturation incidence is studied. By using a discrete map, the existence and stability of the infection-free periodic solution and the endemic periodic solution are investigated. The conditions required for the existence of supercritical bifurcation are derived. A threshold for a disease to be extinct or endemic is established. The Poincaré map and center manifold theorem are used to discuss flip bifurcation of the endemic periodic solution. Moreover, numerical simulations for bifurcation diagrams, phase portraits and periodic solutions, which are illustrated with an example, are in good agreement with the theoretical analysis.