Projected timing of perceivable changes in climate extremes for terrestrial and marine ecosystems

Human and natural systems have adapted to and evolved within historical climatic conditions. Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter these conditions such that onset of unprecedented climatic extremes will outpace evolutionary and adaptive capabilities. To assess whether and when future climate extremes exceed their historical windows of variability within impact‐relevant socioeconomic, geopolitical, and ecological domains, we investigate the timing of perceivable changes (time of emergence; TOE) for 18 magnitude‐, frequency‐, and severity‐based extreme temperature (10) and precipitation (8) indices using both multimodel and single‐model multirealization ensembles. Under a high‐emission scenario, we find that the signal of frequency‐ and severity‐based temperature extremes is projected to rise above historical noise earliest in midlatitudes, whereas magnitude‐based temperature extremes emerge first in low and high latitudes. Precipitation extremes demonstrate different emergence patterns, with severity‐based indices first emerging over midlatitudes, and magnitude‐ and frequency‐based indices emerging earliest in low and high latitudes. Applied to impact‐relevant domains, simulated TOE patterns suggest (a) unprecedented consecutive dry day occurrence in >50% of 14 terrestrial biomes and 12 marine realms prior to 2100, (b) earlier perceivable changes in climate extremes in countries with lower per capita GDP, and (c) emergence of severe and frequent heat extremes well‐before 2030 for the 590 most populous urban centers. Elucidating extreme‐metric and domain‐type TOE heterogeneities highlights the challenges adaptation planners face in confronting the consequences of elevated twenty‐first century radiative forcing.     

Functional endemism: population connectivity,shifting baselines,and the scale of human experience

Quantifying population connectivity is important for visualizing the spatial and temporal scales that conservation measures act upon. Traditionally, migration based on genetic data has been reported in migrants per generation. However, the temporal scales over which this migration may occur do not necessarily accommodate the scales over which human perturbations occur, leaving the potential for a disconnect between population genetic data and conservation action based on those data. Here, we present a new metric called the “Rule of Memory”, which helps conservation practitioners to interpret “migrants per generation” in the context both of human modified ecosystems and the cultural memory of those doing the modification. Our rule states that clades should be considered functionally endemic regardless of their actual taxonomic designation if the migration between locations is insufficient to maintain a viable population over the timescales of one human generation (20 years). Since larger animals are more likely to be remembered, we quantify the relationship between migrants per human (N) and body mass of the organism in question (M) with the formula N = 10M⁻¹. We then use the coral reef fish Pomacentrus moluccensis to demonstrate the taxonomic and spatial scales over which this rule can be applied. Going beyond minimum viable population literature, this metric assesses the probability that a clade''s existence will be forgotten by people throughout its range during a period of extirpation. Because conservation plans are predicated on having well-established baselines, a loss of a species over the range of one human generation evokes the likelihood of that species no longer being recognized as a member of an ecosystem, and thus being excluded in restoration or conservation prioritization. [Correction added on 26 December 2012, after first online publication: this formula has been corrected to N=10M⁻¹].     

Reductions in the dietary niche of southern sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis) from the Holocene to the Anthropocene

The sea otter (Enhydra lutris) is a marine mammal hunted to near extinction during the 1800s. Despite their well‐known modern importance as a keystone species, we know little about historical sea otter ecology. Here, we characterize the ecological niche of ancient southern sea otters (E. lutris nereis) using δ¹³C analysis and δ¹⁵N analysis of bones recovered from archaeological sites spanning ~7,000 to 350 years before present (N = 112 individuals) at five regions along the coast of California. These data are compared with previously published data on modern animals (N = 165) and potential modern prey items. In addition, we analyze the δ¹⁵N of individual amino acids for 23 individuals to test for differences in sea otter trophic ecology through time. After correcting for tissue‐specific and temporal isotopic effects, we employ nonparametric statistics and Bayesian niche models to quantify differences among ancient and modern animals. We find ancient otters occupied a larger isotopic niche than nearly all modern localities; likely reflecting broader habitat and prey use in prefur trade populations. In addition, ancient sea otters at the most southerly sites occupied an isotopic niche that was more than twice as large as ancient otters from northerly regions. This likely reflects greater invertebrate prey diversity in southern California relative to northern California. Thus, we suggest the potential dietary niche of sea otters in southern California could be larger than in central and northern California. At two sites, Año Nuevo and Monterey Bay, ancient otters had significantly higher δ¹⁵N values than modern populations. Amino acid δ¹⁵N data indicated this resulted from shifting baseline isotope values, rather than a change in sea otter trophic ecology. Our results help in better understanding the contemporary ecological role of sea otters and exemplify the strength of combing zooarchaeological and biological information to provide baseline data for conservation efforts.     

Large-scale terrestrial gastropod community composition patterns in the Great Lakes region of North America

Abstract: Previous ordination studies of land snail community composition have been limited to four or fewer habitat types from sites separated by no more than 300 km. To investigate the nature of large-scale patterns, North American land snail assemblages at 421 sites, representing 26 habitat types and covering a 1400 × 800 km area, were ordinated using global, nonmetric multi-dimensional scaling (NMDS). These data were then subjected to model-based cluster analysis and kmeans clustering to identify the main compositional groups and most important environmental covariables. Six primary compositional groups were identified. Three of these largely represent upland forest and rock outcrop sites, while the remaining largely represent either lowland forest, lowland grassland or upland grassland habitats. The geographical location and moisture level of sites also influences community composition. A strong compositional difference exists between sites having duff vs. turf soil surface layers. Only 8% of sites were improperly classified when soil surface architecture was used as the sole predictor variable. Fully 43% of taxa exhibited significant preferences towards one of these surface types, while only 15% of relatively common (10 + occurrence) taxa showed no preferences. Twelve groups of closely related taxa within the same genus had members that favoured different surface types, indicating that differential selection pressures have existed over evolutionary time scales. While turf faunas appeared unaffected by anthropogenic disturbance, duff faunas were strongly impacted, suggesting that their conservation will require protection of soil surface architecture.     

The role of marine biota in the evolution of terrestrial biota: Gases and genes

There is greater biodiversity (in the senseof genetic distance among higher taxa) ofextant marine than of terrestrialO₂-evolvers. In addition tocontributing the genes from one group ofalgae (Class Charophyceae, DivisionChlorophyta) to produce by evolution thedominant terrestrial plants (Embryophyta),the early marine O₂-evolvers greatlymodified the atmosphere and hence the landsurface when the early terrestrialO₂-evolvers grew. The earliestterrestrial phototrophs (from geochemicalevidence) occurred 1.2 Ga ago, over 0.7 Gabefore the Embryophyta evolved, but wellafter the earliest marine (cyanobacterial)O₂ evolvers (3.45 Ga) and marineeukaryotic O₂ evolvers (2.1 Ga). Evenby the time of evolution of the earliestterrestrial O₂-evolvers the marineO₂-evolvers had modified the atmosphereand land environment in at least thefollowing five ways. Once photosyntheticO₂ paralleling organic C burial hadsatisfied marine (Fe²⁺, S^2-reductants, atmospheric O₂ built (1) upto a considerable fraction of the extantvalue (although some was consumed inoxidising terrestrial exposed Fe²⁺ and(2) provided stratospheric O₃ and thusa UV-screen. (3) CO₂ drawdown to20-30times the extant level is attributableto net production, and burial, of organic Cin the oceans (plus other geologicalprocesses). Furthermore, (4) theirproduction of volatile organic S compoundscould have helped to supply S to inland sitesbut also (5) delivered Cl and Br to thestratosphere thus lowering the O₃ leveland the extent of UV screening.     

The role of ethics in experimental marine biology and ecology

Although most countries have ethical guidelines for research involving human subjects and other sentient animals, the ethical issues associated with field research have received little attention. Most experimental marine biologists and ecologists operate without ethical guidelines or scrutiny, despite intermittent community concern about their activities. We offer suggestions on how marine biologists and ecologists can protect the future of research involving the field collection and experimental manipulation of organisms by developing mechanisms to address community concerns that such research is ethically responsible. We urge experimental marine biologists and ecologists to take pre-emptive initiatives by encouraging: (1) institutional animal ethics committees to broaden their terms of reference to include environmental ethics; (2) scientific societies to develop codes of ethics to guide the environmental research conducted by their members; (3) editorial boards of journals to require the research they publish to conform to an appropriate code of ethics, and (4) management agencies that issue permits for field research to establish an ethics committee to advise them on the ethical issues raised by specific research proposals. We conclude that the resultant administrative burden on scientists would be low but that the penalties of operating without such protection can be high.     

Potential consequences of climate change for primary production and fish production in large marine ecosystems

Existing methods to predict the effects of climate change on the biomass and production of marine communities are predicated on modelling the interactions and dynamics of individual species, a very challenging approach when interactions and distributions are changing and little is known about the ecological mechanisms driving the responses of many species. An informative parallel approach is to develop size-based methods. These capture the properties of food webs that describe energy flux and production at a particular size, independent of species'' ecology. We couple a physical–biogeochemical model with a dynamic, size-based food web model to predict the future effects of climate change on fish biomass and production in 11 large regional shelf seas, with and without fishing effects. Changes in potential fish production are shown to most strongly mirror changes in phytoplankton production. We project declines of 30–60% in potential fish production across some important areas of tropical shelf and upwelling seas, most notably in the eastern Indo-Pacific, the northern Humboldt and the North Canary Current. Conversely, in some areas of the high latitude shelf seas, the production of pelagic predators was projected to increase by 28–89%.     

Historical stocking data and 19th century DNA reveal human‐induced changes to native diversity and distribution of cutthroat trout

Many species are threatened with extinction and efforts are underway worldwide to restore imperilled species to their native ranges. Restoration requires knowledge of species' historical diversity and distribution. For some species, many populations were extirpated or individuals moved beyond their native range before native diversity and distribution were documented, resulting in a lack of accurate information for establishing restoration goals. Moreover, traditional taxonomic assessments often failed to accurately capture phylogenetic diversity. We illustrate a general approach for estimating regional native diversity and distribution for cutthroat trout in the Southern Rocky Mountains. We assembled a large archive of historical records documenting human‐mediated change in the distribution of cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii) and combined these data with phylogenetic analysis of 19th century samples from museums collected prior to trout stocking activities and contemporary DNA samples. Our study of the trout in the Southern Rocky Mountains uncovered six divergent lineages, two of which went extinct, probably in the early 20th century. A third lineage, previously declared extinct, was discovered surviving in a single stream outside of its native range. Comparison of the historical and modern distributions with stocking records revealed that the current distribution of trout largely reflects intensive stocking early in the late 19th and early 20th century from two phylogenetically and geographically distinct sources. Our documentation of recent extinctions, undescribed lineages, errors in taxonomy and dramatic range changes induced by human movement of fish underscores the importance of the historical record when developing and implementing conservation plans for threatened and endangered species.     

Linking human impacts to community processes in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems

Human impacts such as habitat loss, climate change and biological invasions are radically altering biodiversity, with greater effects projected into the future. Evidence suggests human impacts may differ substantially between terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but the reasons for these differences are poorly understood. We propose an integrative approach to explain these differences by linking impacts to four fundamental processes that structure communities: dispersal, speciation, species-level selection and ecological drift. Our goal is to provide process-based insights into why human impacts, and responses to impacts, may differ across ecosystem types using a mechanistic, eco-evolutionary comparative framework. To enable these insights, we review and synthesise (i) how the four processes influence diversity and dynamics in terrestrial versus freshwater communities, specifically whether the relative importance of each process differs among ecosystems, and (ii) the pathways by which human impacts can produce divergent responses across ecosystems, due to differences in the strength of processes among ecosystems we identify. Finally, we highlight research gaps and next steps, and discuss how this approach can provide new insights for conservation. By focusing on the processes that shape diversity in communities, we aim to mechanistically link human impacts to ongoing and future changes in ecosystems.     

The Late Permian herbivore Suminia and the early evolution of arboreality in terrestrial vertebrate ecosystems

Vertebrates have repeatedly filled and partitioned the terrestrial ecosystem, and have been able to occupy new, previously unexplored habitats throughout their history on land. The arboreal ecospace is particularly important in vertebrate evolution because it provides new food resources and protection from large ground-dwelling predators. We investigated the skeletal anatomy of the Late Permian (approx. 260 Ma) herbivorous synapsid Suminia getmanovi and performed a morphometric analysis of the phalangeal proportions of a great variety of extant and extinct terrestrial and arboreal tetrapods to discern locomotor function and habitat preference in fossil taxa, with special reference to Suminia. The postcranial anatomy of Suminia provides the earliest skeletal evidence for prehensile abilities and arboreality in vertebrates, as indicated by its elongate limbs, intrinsic phalangeal proportions, a divergent first digit and potentially prehensile tail. The morphometric analysis further suggests a differentiation between grasping and clinging morphotypes among arboreal vertebrates, the former displaying elongated proximal phalanges and the latter showing an elongation of the penultimate phalanges. The fossil assemblage that includes Suminia demonstrates that arboreality and resource partitioning occurred shortly after the initial establishment of the modern type of terrestrial vertebrate ecosystems, with a large number of primary consumers and few top predators.     

定量研究晚白垩世以来陆地生态系统演化格局和过程的新进展

陆地植物的起源和演化与全球气候环境存在着密不可分的关系,而且地质历史时期全球气候环境和植被均呈动态变化,被子植物在白垩纪开始出现,并发生强烈分化,成为植物界的主宰,对这全球陆地生态系统的演化格局和过程产生重要影响,大量保存在地层中具有叶相特征的被子植物叶化石对认识这一过程提供了极为重要的生物学信息,简述了利用被子植物的叶相对古气候,古地理等进行定量分析的研究历史,“气候与叶片多变量分析程序”（Climate-Leaf Analysis Multivariate Program CLAMP）颇具特色,运用CLAMP在定量解释古气候等方面可以得到准确而精确的结果,这对定量重建晚白垩世以来全球陆地气候环境变化的格局与过程具有十分重要的意义,并对今后的深入研究作了展望。     

中国陆地生态系统碳源/汇整合分析

国家尺度陆地生态系统碳收支及其循环过程的研究对于提升地球系统科学与全球变化科学的科技创新能力、提高我国参与应对全球气候变化国际行动和维护国家利益的话语权、保障国家生态安全和改进生态系统管理都具有重要意义。近年来,我国已经在气候变化与陆地生态系统碳循环领域开展了大量的研究工作,主要包括国家清查、生态系统模型模拟、大气反演等手段。然而,由于大尺度陆地生态系统碳源/汇的估算存在很大的不确定性,目前尚未形成国家尺度的陆地生态系统碳源/汇的整合分析。通过搜集已发表的关于中国陆地生态系统及其组分碳源/汇的59篇文献,整合国家清查、生态系统模型模拟、大气反演3种研究手段,分析中国陆地生态系统碳源/汇大小以及时间尺度上的动态变化。结果表明,在1960s-2010s期间中国陆地生态系统碳汇整体呈上升趋势,平均为（0.213±0.030）Pg C/a,其中森林、草地、农田和灌木生态系统碳汇分别为（0.101±0.023）Pg C/a、（0.032±0.007）Pg C/a、（0.043±0.010）Pg C/a和（0.028±0.010）Pg C/a。森林生态系统中的植被碳汇远大于土壤碳汇,然而这种格局在草地和农田生态系统却相反,而且1960s-2010s期间中国主要植被类型的生态系统碳汇总体上随时间呈增加趋势。融合多源数据（地面观测、激光雷达、卫星遥感等）、多尺度数据（样地尺度、站点尺度、区域尺度）以及多手段数据（联网观测、森林清查、模型模拟）,有助于全面准确地评估中国陆地生态系统碳源/汇及其对气候变化的响应。     

Anthropogenic mortality on coral reefs in Caribbean Panama predates coral disease and bleaching

Caribbean reef corals have declined precipitously since the 1980s due to regional episodes of bleaching, disease and algal overgrowth, but the extent of earlier degradation due to localised historical disturbances such as land clearing and overfishing remains unresolved. We analysed coral and molluscan fossil assemblages from reefs near Bocas del Toro, Panama to construct a timeline of ecological change from the 19th century-present. We report large changes before 1960 in coastal lagoons coincident with extensive deforestation, and after 1960 on offshore reefs. Striking changes include the demise of previously dominant staghorn coral Acropora cervicornis and oyster Dendrostrea frons that lives attached to gorgonians and staghorn corals. Reductions in bivalve size and simplification of gastropod trophic structure further implicate increasing environmental stress on reefs. Our paleoecological data strongly support the hypothesis, from extensive qualitative data, that Caribbean reef degradation predates coral bleaching and disease outbreaks linked to anthropogenic climate change.     

Broadscale patterns in the distribution of aquatic and terrestrial vegetation at three ice-free regions on Ross Island,Antarctica

Distribution patterns are presented for selected aquatic algae, and terrestrial algae, mosses and lichens, at three large, coastal ice-free regions on Ross Island. Each region is unique in certain aspects of its vegetation. The variation in areal and quantitative occurrence of different components of the vegetation in diverse ponds and streams, and over exposed ground surfaces, is related to the levels of marine salts in the environment, fertilisation by birds, water availability, substratum type and degree of exposure. A comparison is made with other antarctic, coastal, ice-free regions where similar broadscale patterns have been recognised.     

Sexual differences in the foraging ecology of 19th century beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) from the Canadian High Arctic

Marine mammals often exhibit significant sexual segregation in their diet and habitat use but these differences have not been studied systematically in historic or ancient populations due to the difficulties associated with determining the sex of skeletal elements based on gross morphology. Using a combined ancient DNA and stable isotope approach, we document a sexual difference in the foraging ecology of late 19th century beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) from the Canadian High Arctic. Using two PCR assays that coamplify fragments of the Y-linked SRY and X-linked ZFX genes, we assigned reproducible sex identities to 35 beluga specimens. This provided a basis for investigating sex-specific differences in foraging ecology using stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses of bone collagen. These isotopic data demonstrate that although both males and females primarily consumed Arctic cod, males utilized a wider range of prey than females, feeding on high trophic level benthic prey (sculpins) to a greater extent. Because bone collagen integrates prey isotopic compositions over the course of several years these sex-based differences in beluga bone collagen isotopic compositions reflect long-term and sustained sexual differences in foraging.     

气候变化和人类活动对中国陆地生态系统总初级生产力的影响厘定研究

总初级生产力(GPP)是生态系统植被光合作用生成有机物的能力表征,是生态系统服务功能的基础,关系到区域社会经济可持续发展及区域生态安全。基于生态系统过程模型CEVSA2,应用中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)卫星遥感的叶面积指数数据产品(MCD15A2H),以强迫法构建了遥感数据驱动的模型新版本——CEVSA-RS;基于CEVSA-RS模拟分析了气候变化和人类活动对中国陆地生态系统GPP时空变化的相对影响,从气候潜在总初级生产力(GPP_CL)和现实总初级生产力(GPP_RS)的大小和趋势两方面厘定了人类活动影响。2000至2017年全国平均潜在GPP(1016.36 gC m^-2a^-1)略高于对应现实GPP(962.85 gC m^-2a^-1),但存在明显的空间分异:长江以南大部、秦岭、太行山脉以东以及大兴安岭以东和长白山地区等森林植被覆盖区,现实GPP高于潜在GPP;而西部草地及灌丛等地区现实GPP低于潜在GPP。全国GPP呈显著增加趋势(P<0.05)...