Dengue Virus in Sub-tropical Northern and Central Viet Nam: Population Immunity and Climate Shape Patterns of Viral Invasion and Maintenance

Dengue virus transmission occurs in both epidemic and endemic cycles across tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. Incidence is particularly high in much of Southeast Asia, where hyperendemic transmission plagues both urban and rural populations. However, endemicity has not been established in some areas with climates that may not support year-round viral transmission. An understanding of how dengue viruses (DENV) enter these environments and whether the viruses persist in inapparent local transmission cycles is central to understanding how dengue emerges in areas at the margins of endemic transmission. Dengue is highly endemic in tropical southern Vietnam, while increasingly large seasonal epidemics have occurred in northern Viet Nam over the last decade. We have investigated the spread of DENV-1 throughout Vietnam to determine the routes by which the virus enters northern and central regions of the country. Phylogeographic analysis of 1,765 envelope (E) gene sequences from Southeast Asia revealed frequent movement of DENV between neighboring human populations and strong local clustering of viral lineages. Long-distance migration of DENV between human population centers also occurred regularly and on short time-scales, indicating human-mediated viral invasion into northern Vietnam. Human populations in southern Vietnam were found to be the primary source of DENV circulating throughout the country, while central and northern Vietnam acted as sink populations, likely due to reduced connectedness to other populations in the case of the central regions and to the influence of temperature variability on DENV replication and vector survival and competence in the north. Finally, phylogeographic analyses suggested that viral movement follows a gravity model and indicates that population immunity and physical and economic connections between populations may play important roles in shaping patterns of DENV transmission.     

Evolutionary significance of cranial variation in Asian Homo erectus

Homo erectus inhabited a wide geographic area of Asia, ranging from 40 degrees north latitude in China to 8 degrees south latitude in island Southeast Asia. Yet variation within Asian H. erectus and its relation to ecological and temporal parameters have been little studied. I synthesize the revised radiometric chronologies for hominid sites in Asia and their relation to new oxygen isotope curves (proxies for climatic fluctuations and landbridge connections). These data suggest substantial opportunities in the later Pleistocene for both regional isolation and gene flow between hominids in mainland and Southeast Asia. They also suggest that the most northerly located Chinese sites (Zhoukoudian and Nanjing) may have been occupied during sequential, interglacial periods. Probably reflecting these periods of isolation, nonmetric features and principal components analysis (PCA) of calvarial shape suggest regional differentiation between northern Asian and Southeast Asian H. erectus. The most recent Southeast Asian fossils (e.g., Ngandong) conform to the Southeast Asian pattern. Except perhaps in brain size, there is no evidence that the temporally intermediate Chinese fossils are intermediate in morphology between older and younger Indonesian fossils. In fact, northern Chinese calvaria are easier to exclude from the larger Asian H. erectus hypodigm than are the Ngandong fossils. The Chinese specimens differ from the others based on their narrower occipitals and frontals for their cranial size. The Chinese sample from Zhoukoudian alone is thus not a good proxy for the morphology and variation seen within Asian H. erectus. Both the Chinese and late Indonesian samples exhibit less variation than does the early Indonesian sample; this along with their shared morphological bauplan suggests a common origin and no more than subspecific differentiation. This shared morphology, despite regional differences, was likely maintained by the increasing intensity of multiple glaciations (and longer-lasting land bridge connections) between mainland and island Southeast Asia during the last million years.     

Quaternary land bridges have not been universal conduits of gene flow

Quaternary climate oscillations are a well‐known driver of animal diversification, but their effects are most well studied in areas where glaciations lead to habitat fragmentation. In large areas of the planet, however, glaciations have had the opposite effect, but here their impacts are much less well understood. This is especially true in Southeast Asia, where cyclical changes in land distribution have generated enormous land expansions during glacial periods. In this study, we selected a panel of five songbird species complexes covering a range of ecological specificities to investigate the effects Quaternary land bridges have had on the connectivity of Southeast Asian forest biota. Specifically, we combined morphological and bioacoustic analysis with an arsenal of population genomic and modelling approaches applied to thousands of genome‐wide DNA markers across a total of more than 100 individuals. Our analyses show that species dependent on forest understorey exhibit deep differentiation between Borneo and western Sundaland, with no evidence of gene flow during the land bridges accompanying the last 1–2 ice ages. In contrast, dispersive canopy species and habitat generalists have experienced more recent gene flow. Our results argue that there remains much cryptic species‐level diversity to be discovered in Southeast Asia even in well‐known animal groups such as birds, especially in nondispersive forest understorey inhabitants. We also demonstrate that Quaternary land bridges have not been equally suitable conduits of gene flow for all species complexes and that life history is a major factor in predicting relative population divergence time across Quaternary climate fluctuations.     

Y-Chromosome evidence for a northward migration of modern humans into Eastern Asia during the last Ice Age

The timing and nature of the arrival and the subsequent expansion of modern humans into eastern Asia remains controversial. Using Y-chromosome biallelic markers, we investigated the ancient human-migration patterns in eastern Asia. Our data indicate that southern populations in eastern Asia are much more polymorphic than northern populations, which have only a subset of the southern haplotypes. This pattern indicates that the first settlement of modern humans in eastern Asia occurred in mainland Southeast Asia during the last Ice Age, coinciding with the absence of human fossils in eastern Asia, 50,000-100,000 years ago. After the initial peopling, a great northward migration extended into northern China and Siberia.     

Late Pleistocene human fossils in Japanese Archipelago

The fossil human remains of the Japanese archipelago represent an abundant documentation, with diverse and complex origins. Essentially, populations appear to come from Southeast Asia, moving northward during phases of low sea level, during ice ages. However, part of the population would also have come from the Korean peninsula, via a almost-connected land bridge then established during the lowering of sea levels. An additional northern influence is also possible. Human bone remains were in limestone rock crevices, shelter, and caves, probably buried there. Their conservation is often delicate but informative enough to consider the Pleistocene people in Japanese Archipelago.     

The Ban Don Mun artifacts: A chronological reappraisal of human occupations in the Lampang province of Northern Thailand

Despite recent stone tool evidence demonstrating a much older Early Pleistocene human presence in India, the timing and geography of human demographic expansions in continental Southeast Asia remains ambiguous. The recent discovery of a series of stone artifacts spread over a basalt level at Ban Don Mun in the Lampang province of northern Thailand presents an ideal opportunity for reevaluating lithic assemblages documented during the 1970s and 1980s in the same region. Both the position of these stone tools and new absolute dates indicate a Middle Pleistocene age and call into question the status of these artifacts as the oldest yet found in Southeast Asia. The uncertain geo-chronological context and technological analysis of the chopper industry from previous work in the Lampang area prompted us to undertake new surveys in continental Southeast Asia in order to help clarify the route and timing of Pleistocene human expansions in this part of the world.     

Coupling Genetic and Species Distribution Models to Examine the Response of the Hainan Partridge (Arborophila ardens) to Late Quaternary Climate

Understanding the historical dynamics of animal species is critical for accurate prediction of their response to climate changes. During the late Quaternary period, Southeast Asia had a larger land area than today due to lower sea levels, and its terrestrial landscape was covered by extensive forests and savanna. To date, however, the distribution fluctuation of vegetation and its impacts on genetic structure and demographic history of local animals during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are still disputed. In addition, the responses of animal species on Hainan Island, located in northern Southeast Asia, to climate changes during the LGM are poorly understood. Here, we combined phylogeographic analysis, paleoclimatic evidence, and species distribution models to examine the response of the flightless Hainan Partridge (Arborophila ardens) to climate change. We concluded that A. ardens survived through LGM climate changes, and its current distribution on Hainan Island was its in situ refuge. Range model results indicated that A. ardens once covered a much larger area than its current distribution. Demographic history described a relatively stable pattern during and following the LGM. In addition, weak population genetic structure suggests a role in promoting gene flow between populations with climate-induced elevation shifts. Human activities must be considered in conservation planning due to their impact on fragmented habitats. These first combined data for Hainan Partridge demonstrate the value of paired genetic and SDMs study. More related works that might deepen our understanding of the responses of the species in Southeast Asia to late Quaternary Climate are needed.     

中国滇南-东南亚跨境动物多样性监测平台概述

中国滇南-东南亚跨境动物多样性监测平台由中国科学院西双版纳热带植物园“动物行为与环境变化研究组”和中国科学院东南亚生物多样性研究中心“动物多样性与保护研究组”共建共管。平台始建于2012年6月, 覆盖的区域包括中国滇南和东南亚邻国, 致力于完善滇南和东南亚地区生物多样性本底资料, 了解重点保护动物的分布、种群大小、保护现状, 提出保护建议并制定保护方案。截至2019年9月, 在国内外22个监测点(包括保护区内、外)共布设了1,493个红外相机位点, 收回了国内外部分监测点照片。现已鉴定国内纳板河(2012-2016)、勐腊(2014-2019)、勐仑(2015-2019)和尚勇(2018-2019) 289个有效位点的718,995张照片, 调查工作量97,444个相机日, 记录到兽类48种, 鸟类80种。国外收回红外相机照片的鉴定工作正在推进。基于平台, 我们取得了一些重要成果, 例如: 报道了中国西南地区野猪(Sus scrofa)的种群生态, 发现了纳板河北豚尾猴(Macaca leonina)和猕猴(M. mulatta)的时空生态位分化, 结合分子生物学证据对麂属(Muntiacus)、斑羚属(Naemorhedus)、比氏鼯鼠属(Biswamoyopterus)进行了分类修订等。后续将在现有基础上扩大监测范围, 在国内与更多滇南保护区开展合作, 国外与更多东南亚国家合作。     

Changing Perceptions of Risk: The Development of Agro-Ecosystems in Southeast Asia

New long-term environmental sequences for Southeast Asia provide a basis for reevaluating the development of agroecosystems. Previous models depict agricultural development as a singular, relatively rapid response to various stimuli such as climate change and population growth. In contrast, the Southeast Asian data indicate that the development of tropical agro-ecosystems are the result of stresses separated in time and not part of a unitary developmental process. Two phases are evident: At the end of the Pleistocene, environmental data indicate a significant climatic change that would have affected the distribution of food resources. In some areas, this encouraged food production as previous food resources decreased or disappeared. In the second phase, during the mid- Holocene, increased cultural and social risks led to shifts in strategies that created agro-ecosystems—a more fundamental transformation of landscape ecology. This distinct two-phase pattern suggests groups were responding to very different challenges in each period These findings underscore the need to reexamine agricultural models that conflate separate and distinct processes of cultural change. [Keywords: Southeast Asia, tropical land use, phytoliths, agriculture, Thailand]     

Extent and timing of floristic exchange between Australian and Asian rain forests

Aim We tested an entrenched concept – that the Australian rain forest flora is essentially a Gondwanan relict. We also assessed the role of regional‐level source–sink dynamics in the assembly of this flora. Location Eastern Australia. Methods To avoid potential biases inherent in selective studies undertaken to date, we used an analytical, whole‐of‐flora approach integrated with the fossil record. We identified disjunctions between woody Australian rain forest plant taxa and relatives on other land masses. To test the strength of the fossil evidence for the regional antiquity of this flora, we evaluated the proportion of these disjunct clades represented in the Australian fossil record, and to minimize the effects of biases in this record, we compared late Quaternary (i.e. late Pleistocene and Holocene, 126–0 ka), Pliocene and late Oligocene–early Miocene Australian pollen records interpreted as tropical rain forest. Using within‐species disjunctions as a proxy, we assessed the role of recent immigration from Asia into Australia. To assess the role of source–sink dynamics, we performed comparative analyses of disjunctions in major rain forest categories representing a north–south/climatic gradient. Results Southern Australian, cool temperate (microthermal) rain forests contain many floristic disjunctions with Gondwanan fragments and most of these clades have Gondwanan fossils. Disjunct clades in Australian mesothermal rain forest mostly occur in Asia/Malesia and a low proportion of these clades show pre‐Neogene records. Many clades in lowland tropical and ‘dry’ rain forest show disjunctions with Asia/Malesia and few have Australian fossil records. Rates of recent immigration from Asia/Malesia are high in these northern forests, and outweigh rates of recent emigration approximately nine‐fold. The late Quaternary fossil record has many more rain forest angiosperms than Oligocene–Miocene and Pliocene floras, consistent with extensive late Cenozoic immigration. Main conclusions The microthermal rain forests are largely Gondwanan relicts, but there is progressively greater, and more recent contribution from Asia/Malesia into more northern, and more lowland tropical rain forests. This variation reflects a strong gradient in geographic and ecological proximity between these forests and source floras in Asia/Malesia, and is consistent with a source–sink size model of immigration driven by late Cenozoic contractions and expansions of Australian rain forest.     

Evaluation of long-distance dispersal of Culicoides midges into northern Australia using a migration model

The introduction of novel bluetongue serotypes and genotypes into northern Australia is considered possible via the long-distance windborne dispersal of Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) vectors from Southeast Asia. Initial findings from simulation modelling of potential dispersal over a 15-year period revealed that the greatest risk for incursion of windborne Culicoides from the island of Timor into northern Australia occurs during December-March. The regions at greatest risk for incursion include the top end of the Northern Territory and the Kimberley region in Western Australia, but there is potential for more widespread dispersal into northern Australia based on Timor as the putative source. The establishment of a more pathogenic strain of the virus, or of a novel Culicoides vector introduced by such inter-continental dispersal events, could dramatically alter Australia's current bluetongue disease status.     

Complex population history of two Anopheles dirus mosquito species in Southeast Asia suggests the influence of Pleistocene climate change rather than human-mediated effects

Anopheles dirus and Anopheles baimaii are closely related species which feed on primates, particularly humans, and transmit malaria in the tropical forests of mainland Southeast Asia. Here, we report an in-depth phylogeographic picture based on 269 individuals from 21 populations from mainland Southeast Asia. Analysis of 1537 bp of mtDNA sequence revealed that the population history of A. baimaii is far more complex than previously thought. An old expansion (pre-300 kyr BP) was inferred in northern India/Bangladesh with a wave of south-eastwards expansion arriving at the Thai border (ca 135-173 kyr BP) followed by leptokurtic dispersal very recently (ca 16 kyr BP) into peninsular Thailand. The long and complex population history of these anthropophilic species suggests their expansions are not in response to the relatively recent (ca 40 kyr BP) human expansions in mainland Southeast Asia but, rather, fit well with our understanding of Pleistocene climatic change there.     

The Austroasiatic Munda population from India and Its enigmatic origin: a HLA diversity study

The Austroasiatic linguistic family disputes its origin between two geographically distant regions of Asia, India, and Southeast Asia, respectively. As genetic studies based on classical and gender-specific genetic markers provided contradictory results to this debate thus far, we investigated the HLA diversity (HLA-A, -B, and -DRB1 loci) of an Austroasiatic Munda population from Northeast India and its relationships with other populations from India and Southeast Asia. Because molecular methods currently used to test HLA markers often provide ambiguous results due to the high complexity of this polymorphism, we applied two different techniques (reverse PCR-SSO typing on microbeads arrays based on Luminex technology, and PCR-SSP typing) to type the samples. After validating the resulting frequency distributions through the original statistical method described in our companion article ( Nunes et al. 2011 ), we compared the HLA genetic profile of the sampled Munda to those of other Asiatic populations, among which Dravidian and Indo-European-speakers from India and populations from East and Southeast Asia speaking languages belonging to different linguistic families. We showed that the Munda from Northeast India exhibit a peculiar genetic profile with a reduced level of HLA diversity compared to surrounding Indian populations. They also exhibit less diversity than Southeast Asian populations except at locus DRB1. Several analyses using genetic distances indicate that the Munda are much more closely related to populations from the Indian subcontinent than to Southeast Asian populations speaking languages of the same Austroasiatic linguistic family. On the other hand, they do not share a closer relationship with Dravidians compared with Indo-Europeans, thus arguing against the idea that the Munda share a common and ancient Indian origin with Dravidians. Our results do not favor either a scenario where the Munda would be representative of an ancestral Austroasiatic population giving rise to an eastward Austroasiatic expansion to Southeast Asia. Rather, their peculiar genetic profile is better explained by a decrease in genetic diversity through genetic drift from an ancestral population having a genetic profile similar to present-day Austroasiatic populations from Southeast Asia (thus suggesting a possible southeastern origin), followed by intensive gene flow with neighboring Indian populations. This conclusion is in agreement with archaeological and linguistic information. The history of the Austroasiatic family represents a fascinating example where complex interactions among culturally distinct human populations occurred in the past.     

Experimental evidence that source genetic variation drives pathogen emergence

A pathogen can readily mutate to infect new host types, but this does not guarantee successful establishment in the new habitat. What factors, then, dictate emergence success? One possibility is that the pathogen population cannot sustain itself on the new host type (i.e. host is a sink), but migration from a source population allows adaptive sustainability and eventual emergence by delivering beneficial mutations sampled from the source''s standing genetic variation. This idea is relevant regardless of whether the sink host is truly novel (host shift) or whether the sink is an existing or related, similar host population thriving under conditions unfavourable to pathogen persistence (range expansion). We predicted that sink adaptation should occur faster under range expansion than during a host shift owing to the effects of source genetic variation on pathogen adaptability in the sink. Under range expansion, source migration should benefit emergence in the sink because selection acting on source and sink populations is likely to be congruent. By contrast, during host shifts, source migration is likely to disrupt emergence in the sink owing to uncorrelated selection or performance tradeoffs across host types. We tested this hypothesis by evolving bacteriophage populations on novel host bacteria under sink conditions, while manipulating emergence via host shift versus range expansion. Controls examined sink adaptation when unevolved founding genotypes served as migrants. As predicted, adaptability was fastest under range expansion, and controls did not adapt. Large, similar and similarly timed increases in fitness were observed in the host-shift populations, despite declines in mean fitness of immigrants through time. These results suggest that source populations are the origin of mutations that drive adaptive emergence at the edge of a pathogen''s ecological or geographical range.     

A morphometric analysis of the Late Pleistocene Human Skeleton from the Moh Khiew Cave in Thailand.

Few Late Pleistocene human remains have been found in Southeast Asia and the morphological features of the people of that age are still largely unknown due to the virtual lack of human remains in the area. Recent excavations at the Moh Khiew Cave in Thailand resulted in the discovery of a Late Pleistocene human skeleton in a relatively good state of preservation. An AMS radiocarbon date on the charcoal sample gathered from the burial gave a result of 25,800 +/- 600 BP, implying that the inhabitants of Moh Khiew Cave resided in a part of Sundaland during the last glacial age. In debates on the population history of Southeast Asia, it has been repeatedly advocated that Southeast Asia was occupied by indigenous people akin to present-day Australo-Melanesians prior to an expansion of migrants from Northeast Asia into this area. Morphometric analyses were undertaken to test the validity of this hypothesis. In the present study, cranial and dental measurements recorded from the Moh Khiew remains are compared with those of early and modern samples from Southeast Asia and Australia. These comparisons demonstrate that the Moh Khiew specimen resembles the Late Pleistocene series from Coobool Creek, Australia in both cranial and dental measurements. These results suggest that the Moh Khiew skeleton, as well as other fossil remains from the Tabon, Niah and Gua Gunung sites, represents a member of the Sundaland population during the Late Pleistocene, who may share common ancestry with the present-day Australian Aborigines and Melanesians.     

Repeated landmass reformation limits diversification in the widespread littoral zone mosquito Anopheles sundaicus sensu lato in the Indo‐Oriental Region

Southeast Asia harbours abundant biodiversity, hypothesized to have been generated by Pliocene and Pleistocene climatic and environmental change. Vicariance between the island of Borneo, the remaining Indonesian archipelago and mainland Southeast Asia caused by elevated sea levels during interglacial periods has been proposed to lead to diversification in the littoral zone mosquito Anopheles (Cellia) sundaicus (Rodenwaldt) sensu lato. To test this biogeographical hypothesis, we inferred the population history and assessed gene flow of A. sundaicus s.l. sampled from 18 populations across its pan‐Asian species range, using sequences from mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (CO1), the internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2) and the mannose phosphate isomerase (Mpi) gene. A hypothesis of ecological speciation for A. sundaicus involving divergent adaptation to brackish and freshwater larval habitats was also previously proposed, based on a deficiency of heterozygotes for Mpi allozyme alleles in sympatry. This hypothesis was not supported by Mpi sequence data, which exhibited no fixed differences between brackish and freshwater larval habitats. Mpi and CO1 supported the presence of up to eight genetically distinct population groupings. Counter to the hypothesis of three allopatric species, divergence was often no greater between Borneo, Sumatra/Java and the Southeast Asian mainland than it was between genetic groupings within these landmasses. An isolation‐with‐migration (IM) model indicates recurrent gene flow between the current major landmasses. Such gene flow would have been possible during glacial periods when the current landmasses merged, presenting opportunities for dispersal along expanding and contracting coastlines. Consequently, Pleistocene climatic variation has proved a homogenizing, rather than diversifying, force for A. sundaicus diversity.     

Austro-Asiatic tribes of Northeast India provide hitherto missing genetic link between South and Southeast Asia

Northeast India, the only region which currently forms a land bridge between the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia, has been proposed as an important corridor for the initial peopling of East Asia. Given that the Austro-Asiatic linguistic family is considered to be the oldest and spoken by certain tribes in India, Northeast India and entire Southeast Asia, we expect that populations of this family from Northeast India should provide the signatures of genetic link between Indian and Southeast Asian populations. In order to test this hypothesis, we analyzed mtDNA and Y-Chromosome SNP and STR data of the eight groups of the Austro-Asiatic Khasi from Northeast India and the neighboring Garo and compared with that of other relevant Asian populations. The results suggest that the Austro-Asiatic Khasi tribes of Northeast India represent a genetic continuity between the populations of South and Southeast Asia, thereby advocating that northeast India could have been a major corridor for the movement of populations from India to East/Southeast Asia.     

Genetic Evidence of an East Asian Origin and Paleolithic Northward Migration of Y-chromosome Haplogroup N

The Y-chromosome haplogroup N-M231 (Hg N) is distributed widely in eastern and central Asia, Siberia, as well as in eastern and northern Europe. Previous studies suggested a counterclockwise prehistoric migration of Hg N from eastern Asia to eastern and northern Europe. However, the root of this Y chromosome lineage and its detailed dispersal pattern across eastern Asia are still unclear. We analyzed haplogroup profiles and phylogeographic patterns of 1,570 Hg N individuals from 20,826 males in 359 populations across Eurasia. We first genotyped 6,371 males from 169 populations in China and Cambodia, and generated data of 360 Hg N individuals, and then combined published data on 1,210 Hg N individuals from Japanese, Southeast Asian, Siberian, European and Central Asian populations. The results showed that the sub-haplogroups of Hg N have a distinct geographical distribution. The highest Y-STR diversity of the ancestral Hg N sub-haplogroups was observed in the southern part of mainland East Asia, and further phylogeographic analyses supports an origin of Hg N in southern China. Combined with previous data, we propose that the early northward dispersal of Hg N started from southern China about 21 thousand years ago (kya), expanding into northern China 12–18 kya, and reaching further north to Siberia about 12–14 kya before a population expansion and westward migration into Central Asia and eastern/northern Europe around 8.0–10.0 kya. This northward migration of Hg N likewise coincides with retreating ice sheets after the Last Glacial Maximum (22–18 kya) in mainland East Asia.     

Sailing through the Late Pleistocene: unusual historical demography of an East Asian endemic, the Chinese Hwamei (Leucodioptron canorum canorum), during the last glacial period

Pleistocene climate fluctuations shaped the patterns of genetic diversity observed in extant species. In contrast to Europe and North America where the effects of recent glacial cycles on genetic diversity have been well studied, the genetic legacy of the Late Pleistocene for East Asia, a region of great topographical complexity and presumably milder historical climate, remains poorly understood. We analysed 3.86 kb of the mitochondrial genome of 186 Chinese Hwamei birds, Leucodioptron canorum canorum , and found that contrary to the conventional expectation of population decline during cold periods (stadials), the demographic history of this species shows continuous population growth since the penultimate glacial period (about 170 000 years ago). Refugia were identified in the south, coastal regions, and northern inland areas, implying that topographic complexity played a substantial role in providing suitable habitats for the Chinese Hwamei during cold periods. Intermittent gene flow between these refugia during the warmer periods (interstadials) might have resulted in a large effective population of this bird through the last glacial period.     

Potential source and sink locations for climate‐driven species range shifts in Europe since the Last Glacial Maximum

Aim To identify potential source and sink locations for climate‐driven species range shifts in Europe since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Location Europe. Methods We developed a new approach combining past‐climate simulations with the concept of analogous climate space. Our index gives a continuous measure of the potential of a location to have acted as a source or a sink for species that have shifted their ranges since the LGM. High glacial source potential is indicated by LGM climatic conditions that are widespread now; high post‐glacial sink potential is indicated by current climatic conditions that were widespread at the LGM. The degree of isolation of source and sink areas was calculated as the median distance to areas with analogous climate conditions. Results We identified areas of high glacial source potential in the previously recognized refugial areas in the southern European peninsulas, but also in large areas in central‐western Europe. The most climatically isolated source areas were located in northern Spain, in north‐western Europe and in eastern Turkey. From here species would have had to cover substantial distances to find current climate conditions analogous to LGM conditions of these areas. Areas with high post‐glacial sink potential were mainly located in Fennoscandia and in central and south‐eastern Europe. Some of the most isolated sink areas were located in the Spanish highlands and around the Baltic Sea. Main conclusions Our species‐independent approach successfully identified previously recognized glacial refugial areas with high source potential for species range shifts in southern Europe and in addition highlighted other potential source areas in central Europe. This study offers new insights into how the distribution of past and current climatic conditions may have influenced past species range shifts and current large‐scale biodiversity patterns.