Are dormant plants hedging their bets? Demographic consequences of prolonged dormancy in variable environments

During the growing season, some individuals in perennial plant populations may remain alive belowground while others emerge. This phenomenon, known as prolonged dormancy, seems maladaptive, because prolonged dormancy delays growth and reproduction. However, prolonged dormancy may offer the benefit of safety while belowground, leading to the hypothesis that prolonged dormancy is a bet-hedging strategy. We evaluated this hypothesis using a 25-year demographic study of Astragalus scaphoides, an iteroparous perennial plant. First, we determined the relationship between prolonged dormancy and fitness using data from individuals in our population. This analysis showed that prolonged dormancy decreased arithmetic mean fitness and reduced variance in fitness. Geometric mean fitness was maximized at intermediate levels of prolonged dormancy. Empirical patterns of lifetime reproductive success confirm this relationship. We also compared fitness of plants in our population to hypothetical plants without prolonged dormancy, which generally revealed benefits of prolonged dormancy, even if plants could forgo prolonged dormancy without costs to other vital rates. Therefore, prolonged dormancy may indeed function as a bet-hedging strategy, but the benefits of remaining belowground outweigh the costs only for a subset of individuals. Bet hedging has been demonstrated in plants with simple life histories, such as annuals and monocarpic perennials; we present evidence that bet hedging may be important for plants with more complex life histories.     

Bet-hedging as an evolutionary game: the trade-off between egg size and number

Bet-hedging theory addresses how individuals should optimize fitness in varying and unpredictable environments by sacrificing mean fitness to decrease variation in fitness. So far, three main bet-hedging strategies have been described: conservative bet-hedging (play it safe), diversified bet-hedging (don’t put all eggs in one basket) and adaptive coin flipping (choose a strategy at random from a fixed distribution). Within this context, we analyse the trade-off between many small eggs (or seeds) and few large, given an unpredictable environment. Our model is an extension of previous models and allows for any combination of the bet-hedging strategies mentioned above. In our individual-based model (accounting for both ecological and evolutionary forces), the optimal bet-hedging strategy is a combination of conservative and diversified bet-hedging and adaptive coin flipping, which means a variation in egg size both within clutches and between years. Hence, we show how phenotypic variation within a population, often assumed to be due to non-adaptive variation, instead can be the result of females having this mixed strategy. Our results provide a new perspective on bet-hedging and stress the importance of extreme events in life history evolution.     

Generalists versus specialists in fluctuating environments: a bet-hedging perspective

Bet-hedging evolves in fluctuating environments because long-term genotype success is determined by geometric (rather than arithmetic) mean fitness across generations. Diversifying bet-hedging produces different specialist offspring, whereas conservative bet-hedging produces similar generalist offspring. However, many fields, such as behavioral ecology and thermal physiology, typically consider specialist versus generalist strategies only in terms of maximizing arithmetic mean fitness benefits to individuals. Here we model how environmental variability affects optimal amounts of phenotypic variation within and among individuals to maximise genotype fitness, and we disentangle the effects of individual-level optimization and genotype-level bet-hedging by comparing long-term arithmetic versus geometric mean fitness. For traits with additive fitness effects within lifetimes (e.g. foraging-related traits), genotypes of similar generalists or diversified specialists perform equally well. However, if fitness effects are multiplicative within lifetimes (e.g. sequential survival probabilities), generalist individuals are always favored. In this case, geometric mean fitness optimization requires even more within-individual phenotypic variation than does arithmetic mean fitness, causing individuals to be more generalist than required to simply maximize their own expected fitness. In contrast to previous results in the bet-hedging literature, this generalist conservative bet-hedging effect is always favored over diversifying bet-hedging. These results link the evolution of behavioral and ecological specialization with earlier models of bet-hedging, and we apply our framework to a range of natural phenomena from habitat choice to host specificity in parasites.     

Mating portfolios: bet-hedging,sexual selection and female multiple mating

Polyandry (female multiple mating) has profound evolutionary and ecological implications. Despite considerable work devoted to understanding why females mate multiply, we currently lack convincing empirical evidence to explain the adaptive value of polyandry. Here, we provide a direct test of the controversial idea that bet-hedging functions as a risk-spreading strategy that yields multi-generational fitness benefits to polyandrous females. Unfortunately, testing this hypothesis is far from trivial, and the empirical comparison of the across-generations fitness payoffs of a polyandrous (bet hedger) versus a monandrous (non-bet hedger) strategy has never been accomplished because of numerous experimental constraints presented by most ‘model’ species. In this study, we take advantage of the extraordinary tractability and versatility of a marine broadcast spawning invertebrate to overcome these challenges. We are able to simulate multi-generational (geometric mean) fitness among individual females assigned simultaneously to a polyandrous and monandrous mating strategy. Our approaches, which separate and account for the effects of sexual selection and pure bet-hedging scenarios, reveal that bet-hedging, in addition to sexual selection, can enhance evolutionary fitness in multiply mated females. In addition to offering a tractable experimental approach for addressing bet-hedging theory, our study provides key insights into the evolutionary ecology of sexual interactions.     

Bet-hedging--a triple trade-off between means, variances and correlations

In unpredictably varying environments, strategies that have a reduced variance in fitness can invade a population consisting of individuals that on average do better. Such strategies 'hedge their evolutionary bets' against the variability of the environment. The idea of bet-hedging arises from the fact that appropriate measure of long-term fitness is sensitive to variance, leading to the potential for strategies with a reduced mean fitness to invade and increase in frequency. Our aim is to review the conceptual foundation of bet-hedging as a mechanism that influences short- and long-term evolutionary processes. We do so by presenting a general model showing how evolutionary changes are affected by variance in fitness and how genotypic variance in fitness can be separated into variance in fitness at the level of the individuals and correlations in fitness among them. By breaking down genotypic fitness variance in this way the traditional divisions between conservative and diversified strategies are more easily intuited, and it is also shown that this division can be considered a false dichotomy, and is better viewed as two extreme points on a continuum. The model also sheds light on the ideas of within- and between-generation bet-hedging, which can also be generalized to be seen as two ends of a different continuum. We use a simple example to illustrate the virtues of our general model, as well as discuss the implications for systems where bet-hedging has been invoked as an explanation.     

Variability in diapause duration in the chestnut weevil: mixed ESS,genetic polymorphism or bet‐hedging?

Within-generation variability in diapause duration can be viewed either as a mixed Evolutionary Stable Strategy (ESS), a genetic polymorphism of pure strategies, or as bet-hedging. Diapause variability expressed by a single genotype that maximizes mean geometric fitness at the cost of mean arithmetic fitness is a bet-hedging strategy. Bet-hedging differs from mixed ESS and stable genetic polymorphism of pure strategies because in these latter the expected pay-offs for all phenotypes are equal. In insects, individuals with a prolonged diapause (long cycle) lose at least one reproductive opportunity and suffer lower survival before reproduction than those with a short diapause (short cycle). If long-cycle individuals compensate this cost by better adult performance, the compensation leads to a trade-off which could result in mixed ESS or genetic polymorphism of pure strategies since the overall fitness of the two morphs may be similar. In this paper, we show that in the chestnut weevil Curculio elephas adult performance, measured as sex ratio, longevity, weight, and realized fecundity of females, are similar in individuals emerged after one and two years. Long-cycle morphs emerge slightly before short-cycle ones but this eventual advantage for fertility probably does not compensate higher larval mortality and missed reproductive opportunity in long-cycle phenotypes. Therefore, the cost associated with prolonged diapause cannot be completely compensated for by a better adult performance. From these results, and previous data, we conclude that variability in diapause duration cycle is better explained as bet-hedging than mixed ESS or genetic polymorphism of pure strategies.     

Hedging one's evolutionary bets, revisited

Evolutionary bet-hedging involves a trade-off between the mean and variance of fitness, such that phenotypes with reduced mean fitness may be at a selective advantage under certain conditions. The theory of bet-hedging was first formulated in the 1970s, and recent empirical studies suggest that the process may operate in a wide range of plant and animal species.     

Fluctuating natural selection accounts for the evolution of diversification bet hedging

Natural environments are characterized by unpredictability over all time scales. This stochasticity is expected on theoretical grounds to result in the evolution of ‘bet-hedging’ traits that maximize the long term, or geometric mean fitness even though such traits do not maximize fitness over shorter time scales. The geometric mean principle is thus central to our interpretation of optimality and adaptation; however, quantitative empirical support for bet hedging is lacking. Here, I report a quantitative test using the timing of seed germination—a model diversification bet-hedging trait—in Lobelia inflata under field conditions. In a phenotypic manipulation study, I find the magnitude of fluctuating selection acting on seed germination timing—across 70 intervals throughout five seasons—to be extreme: fitness functions for survival are complex and multimodal within seasons and significantly dissimilar among seasons. I confirm that the observed magnitude of fluctuating selection is sufficient to account for the degree of diversification behaviour characteristic of individuals of this species. The geometric mean principle has been known to economic theory for over two centuries; this study now provides a quantitative test of optimality of a bet-hedging trait in nature.     

Experimental evolution of bet hedging under manipulated environmental uncertainty in Neurospora crassa

All organisms are faced with environmental uncertainty. Bet-hedging theory expects unpredictable selection to result in the evolution of traits that maximize the geometric-mean fitness even though such traits appear to be detrimental over the shorter term. Despite the centrality of fitness measures to evolutionary analysis, no direct test of the geometric-mean fitness principle exists. Here, we directly distinguish between predictions of competing fitness maximization principles by testing Cohen''s 1966 classic bet-hedging model using the fungus Neurospora crassa. The simple prediction is that propagule dormancy will evolve in proportion to the frequency of ‘bad’ years, whereas the prediction of the alternative arithmetic-mean principle is the evolution of zero dormancy as long as the expectation of a bad year is less than 0.5. Ascospore dormancy fraction in N. crassa was allowed to evolve under five experimental selection regimes that differed in the frequency of unpredictable ‘bad years’. Results were consistent with bet-hedging theory: final dormancy fraction in 12 genetic lineages across 88 independently evolving samples was proportional to the frequency of bad years, and evolved both upwards and downwards as predicted from a range of starting dormancy fractions. These findings suggest that selection results in adaptation to variable rather than to expected environments.     

An empirical test of bet-hedging polyandry hypothesis in the field cricket Gryllus bimaculatus

Journal of Ethology - Theory shows that polyandry (mating with multiple males within a reproductive season) works as bet-hedging to increase the geometric mean fitness (GMF) of polyandrous genotype...     

Evolutionary “Bet-Hedgers” under Cultivation: Investigating the Domestication of Erect Knotweed (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Polygonum erectum</Emphasis> L.) using Growth Experiments

Evolutionary “bet-hedging” refers to situations in which organisms sacrifice mean fitness for a reduction in fitness variance over time. Germination heteromorphism is the quintessential and most well understood bet-hedging strategy. It has evolved in many different plants, including the wild progenitors of some crops. Erect knotweed (Polygonum erectum L.), an annual seed crop, was cultivated in Eastern North America between c. 3000–600 BP. By c. 900 BP, cultivation had produced a domesticated subspecies with greatly reduced germination heteromorphism. Field observations and greenhouse experiments suggest that cultivation eliminated the selective pressures that maintain the bet-hedging strategy in erect knotweed, while humans also directly selected for seeds that germinated reliably and for seedlings with rapid early growth. The protection provided to erect knotweed under cultivation explains the domestication syndrome that has been observed in some archaeological assemblages. Dormancy provides seeds a means of escaping adverse conditions in time, while dispersal provides an escape in space. Farmers relaxed selective pressures that maintained dormancy in erect knotweed by acting as seed dispersers, spreading disturbance-adapted plants to predictable and protected environments, and by saving and exchanging seed stock. Experimental data also indicate that adaptive transgenerational plasticity may have been working against the expression of domestication syndrome in this case.     

The evolution of bet-hedging adaptations to rare scenarios

When faced with a variable environment, organisms may switch between different strategies according to some probabilistic rule. In an infinite population, evolution is expected to favor the rule that maximizes geometric mean fitness. If some environments are encountered only rarely, selection may not be strong enough for optimal switching probabilities to evolve. Here we calculate the evolution of switching probabilities in a finite population by analyzing fixation probabilities of alleles specifying switching rules. We calculate the conditions required for the evolution of phenotypic switching as a form of bet-hedging as a function of the population size N, the rate theta at which a rare environment is encountered, and the selective advantage s associated with switching in the rare environment. We consider a simplified model in which environmental switching and phenotypic switching are one-way processes, and mutation is symmetric and rare with respect to the timescale of fixation events. In this case, the approximate requirements for bet-hedging to be favored by a ratio of at least R are that sN>log(R) and thetaN>square root R .     

High Altitude Frogs (Rana kukonoris) Adopt a Diversified Bethedging Strategy in the Face of Environmental Unpredictability

Environmental unpredictability can influence strategies of maternal investment among eggs within a clutch. Models predict that breeding females should adopt a diversified bet-hedging strategy in unpredictable environments, but empirical field evidence from Asia is scarce. Here we tested this hypothesis by exploring spatial patterns in egg size along an altitudinal gradient in a frog species(Rana kukunoris) inhabiting the Tibetan Plateau. Within-clutch variability in egg size increased as the environment became variable(e.g., lower mean monthly temperature and mean monthly rainfall at higher altitudes), and populations in environments with more unpredictable rainfall produced eggs that were smaller and more variable in size. We provide support for a diversified bet-hedging strategy in high-altitude environments, which experience dynamic weather patterns and therefore are of unpredictable environmental quality. This strategy may be an adaptive response to lower environmental quality and higher unpredictable environmental variance. Such a strategy should increase the likelihood of breeding success and maximize maternal lifetime fitness by producing offspring that are adapted to current environmental conditions. We speculate that in high-altitude environments prone to physical disturbance, breeding females are unable to consistently produce the optimal egg size due to physiological constraints imposed by environmental conditions(e.g., duration of the active season, food availability). Species and populations whose breeding strategies are adapted to cope with uncertain environmental conditions by adjusting offspring size and therefore quality show a remarkable degree of ability to cope with future climatic changes.     

Plasticity in ploidy underlies plant fitness compensation to herbivore damage

How plants mitigate damage by animal herbivores is a fundamental ecological and evolutionary question of plant–animal interactions. Some plants can increase their fitness when damaged in a phenomenon termed ‘overcompensation’. Despite overcompensation being observed in a variety of plant species, its mechanistic basis remains elusive. Recent research has shown that the Arabidopsis thaliana genotype Columbia‐4 employs endoreduplication, the replication of the genome without mitosis, following damage and that it overcompensates for seed yield. The related genotype Landsberg erecta, in contrast, does not increase its endoreduplication following damage and suffers reduced seed yield. While these results suggest that a plant's ability to plastically increase its ploidy during regrowth may promote its mitigation of damage, no studies have explicitly linked the endoreduplication genetic pathway to the regrowth and fitness of damaged plants. By comparing fitness and ploidy between undamaged and damaged plants of Columbia‐4, Landsberg erecta and their offspring, we provide evidence that endoreduplication is directly involved in compensatory performance. We then overexpressed an endoreduplication regulator and compared this mutant's endoreduplication and compensation with its background genotype Columbia‐0, an undercompensator. Enhancing Columbia‐0's ability to endoreduplicate during regrowth led to the complete mitigation of the otherwise detrimental effects of damage on its fitness. These results suggest that the ability of these plants to increase their ploidy via endoreduplication directly impacts their abilities to compensate for damage, providing a novel mechanism by which some plants can mitigate or even benefit from apical damage with potential across the wide range of plant taxa that endoreduplicate.     

Diapause and bet-hedging strategies in insects: a meta-analysis of reaction norm shapes

Many organisms escape from lethal climatological conditions by entering a resistant resting stage called diapause, which needs to be optimally timed with seasonal change. As climate change exerts selection pressure on phenology, the evolution of mean diapause timing, but also of phenotypic plasticity and bet-hedging strategies is expected. The potential of the latter strategy as a means of coping with environmental unpredictability has received little attention in the climate change literature. Populations should be adapted to spatial variation in local conditions; contemporary patterns of phenological strategies across a geographic range may hence provide information about their evolvability. We thus extracted 458 diapause reaction norms from 60 studies. First, we correlated mean diapause timing with mean winter onset. Then we partitioned the reaction norm variance into a temporal component (phenotypic plasticity) and among-offspring variance (diversified bet-hedging) and correlated this variance composition with variability of winter onset. Mean diapause timing correlated reasonably well with mean winter onset, except for populations at high latitudes, which apparently failed to track early onsets. Variance among offspring was, however, limited and correlated only weakly with environmental variability, indicating little scope for bet-hedging. The apparent lack of phenological bet-hedging strategies may pose a risk in a less predictable climate, but we also highlight the need for more data on alternative strategies.     

Intragenomic bet-hedging

The notion of intragenomic bet-hedging is introduced by modeling a system where one locus is seen as setting the “environment” for selection in a two-locus genetic system. Using a spatially structured simulation model I show that bet-hedging alleles with a lower mean fitness and lower variance of fitness across genotypes at a different locus can go to fixation, potentially providing a mechanism for the reduction of severe heterozygote advantage.     

Effects of natural enemies on relative fitness of Heliothis virescens genotypes adapted and not adapted to resistant host plants

We investigated the potential of two natural enemies of Heliothis virescens (F.) (Noctuidae) to affect its rate of adaptation to tobacco containing Bacillus thuringiensis Berliner toxin. Larval fitness of two laboratory strains of H. virescens, one adapted to B. thuringiensis toxin and one not adapted, was compared on toxic and nontoxic plants, in the presence of the parasitoid Campoletis sonorensis (Cameron) (Ichneumonidae) or the entomopathogenic fungus Nomuraea rileyi (Farlow) Samson. By exposing larvae to plants and enemies for no more than 24 h, we focussed on the behavioral rather than physiological component of their interaction with toxic plants and natural enemies. Parasitism of H. virescens larvae by C. sonorensis during exposure periods of 1–4 h was lower on toxic plants than nontoxic plants and was lower for nonadapted larvae than for toxin-adapted larvae. Decreased larval feeding damage on toxic versus nontoxic plants, and by nonadapted versus adapted larvae, may explain differences in parasitism, because C. sonorensis locates host larvae using cues from damaged plants. Effects of plant toxicity and larval strain on H. virescens survival were numerically consistent with effects on parasitism, but they were not statistically significant. When mean larval survival is used to estimate fitness of the nonadapted genotype relative to the toxin-adapted genotype, we find that C. sonorensis is expected to delay adaptation to toxic plants. Percent infection by N. rileyi of H. virescens larvae exposed to fungus-treated plants for 24 h was greater when plants were toxic, and was greater for nonadapted larvae than toxin-adapted larvae. There were corresponding decreases in larval survival on toxic compared to nontoxic plants, and of nonadapted compared to adapted larvae. Interaction of effects of plant line and larval strain on survival was significant in the presence of fungus, but not in the absence of fungus, which indicates that the effect of toxic plants on the relative fitness of toxin-adapted and nonadapted larvae was mediated by fungus. As in the interaction with C. sonorensis, behavior of larvae on plants may explain differences in susceptibility to N. rileyi. Because nonadapted larvae moved more than toxin-adapted larvae on toxic plants, nonadapted larvae may have been more likely to encounter a lethal dose of conidia. In contrast with C. sonorensis, N. rileyi, which decreased the fitness of the nonadapted genotype relative to the adapted genotype, is expected to accelerate adaptation to toxic plants.     

Innate Adjustment of Visitation Behavior to Rewarding and Reward‐Minimized Petunia axillaris (Solanacea) Plants by Hawkmoth Manduca sexta (Sphingidae)

Plant–pollinator interactions offer an excellent system to study the stability of mutualistic interactions. While nectar production requires resources and a reduction could in principle benefit plant fitness, only few angiosperms lack nectar, and thus cheat from a pollinator's perspective. Cheating behavior may be scarce because of pollinator foraging behaviors that select for nectariferous plants. Shorter inspection duration, interaction with fewer flowers, or even complete avoidance of plants with low/no nectar may reduce the fitness of cheating plants. The effectiveness of pollinator strategies may depend on how they are implemented. Innate strategies would invariably decrease the fitness of a cheating plant, while learned responses allow cheaters to exploit naïve pollinators. Here, we studied the foraging strategies of the hawkmoth Manduca sexta during interactions with nectariferous and reward‐minimized Petunia axillaris. We found that neither naïve nor experienced hawkmoths discriminated a priori between rewarding and nectar‐less plants. However, naïve hawkmoths displayed reduced probing time per flower and number of flowers visited on reward‐minimized plants during the first trial, without showing further improved discrimination with experience. In conclusion, the foraging decision rules of hawkmoths that may reduce the fitness of reward‐minimized plants appear to be innate, with little scope for additional learning.     

Courting disaster: How diversification rate affects fitness under risk

Life is full of risk. To deal with this uncertainty, many organisms have evolved bet-hedging strategies that spread risk through phenotypic diversification. These rates of diversification can vary by orders of magnitude in different species. Here we examine how key characteristics of risk and organismal ecology affect the fitness consequences of variation in diversification rate. We find that rapid diversification is strongly favored when the risk faced has a wide spatial extent, with a single disaster affecting a large fraction of the population. This advantage is especially great in small populations subject to frequent disaster. In contrast, when risk is correlated through time, slow diversification is favored because it allows adaptive tracking of disasters that tend to occur in series. Naturally evolved diversification mechanisms in diverse organisms facing a broad array of environmental risks largely support these results. The theory presented in this article provides a testable ecological hypothesis to explain the prevalence of slow stochastic switching among microbes and rapid, within-clutch diversification strategies among plants and animals.     

Can seeds predict their future? Germination strategies of density‐regulated desert annuals

Annual plants in unpredictable environments maintain dormant seeds to avoid extinction. Here, we present results for four desert annual species suggesting that germination rates are variable even in the absence of abiotic cues. Namely, seeds produced in a copious year had lower germination rates than seeds produced in drought years. Inspired by our data, we have extended previous bet-hedging models by including a structured seed bank. With density-dependence, the ESS (environmental stable strategy) involved a negative relationship between seed yield and subsequent germination probability. We suggest that heterogeneous germination rates are selected for by competition among seedlings after years with high seed production. In summary, our findings are suggestive of an intriguingly simple and effective mechanism that may allow annual plants to partly predict their future success.