Estimating Competition between Wildlife and Humans–A Case of Cormorants and Coastal Fisheries in the Baltic Sea

Cormorants and other wildlife populations have come in real or perceived conflicts with humans over exploited fish stocks. From gut contents of cormorants, and using an extension of the Catch equation, we estimated the degree of short term competition between great cormorants and coastal fisheries in two areas along the Swedish Baltic Sea. Cormorants consumed 10 and 44%, in respective area, of the fish biomass of six fish species harvested by humans; eel, flounder, herring, perch, pike, and whitefish. On average, cormorants consumed smaller individuals than harvested in fisheries. But for perch, cod and flounder, cormorants consumed harvestable sized fish corresponding >20% of human catches. Our competition model estimated the direct decrease in fisheries catches due to cormorant predation to be <10% for all species except flounder (>30%) and perch (2–20%). When also including the indirect effects of cormorant predation on smaller fish that never reached harvestable size, the estimated decrease in fisheries catches at least doubled for perch (13–34%) and pike (8–19%). Despite large uncertainties, our model indicates that cormorants may locally have a direct impact on human catches of at least flounder, and when incorporating indirect effects also on perch and pike. The study indicates that the degree of competition between cormorants and humans varies substantially between areas. We also included economical values in the model and concluded that for the commercially most important species, eel and cod, the estimated economic impact of cormorants on fisheries was low.     

Immediate and delayed life history effects caused by food deprivation early in life in a short‐lived lizard

Detailed studies of the mechanisms driving life history effects of food availability are of prime importance to understand the evolution of phenotypic plasticity and the capacity of organisms to produce better adapted phenotypes. Food availability may influence life history trajectories through three nonexclusive mechanisms: (i) immediate and long‐lasting effects on individual quality, and indirect delayed effects on (ii) intracohort and (iii) intercohort interactions. Using the common lizard (Zootoca vivipara), we tested whether a food deprivation during the two‐first months of life influence life history (growth, survival, reproduction) and performance traits (immunocompetence, locomotor performances) until adulthood. We investigated the underlying mechanisms and their possible interactions by manipulating jointly food availability in a birth cohort and in cohorts of older conspecifics. Food deprivation had direct immediate negative effects on growth but positive long‐lasting effects on immunocompetence. Food deprivation had also indirect delayed effects on growth, body size, early survival and reproduction mediated by an interaction between its direct effects on individual quality and its delayed effects on the intensity of intercohort social interactions combined with density dependence on body size. These results demonstrate that interactions between direct and socially mediated effects of past environments influence life history evolution in size‐structured and stage‐structured populations.     

Stock collapse and its effect on species interactions: Cod and herring in the Norwegian‐Barents Seas system as an example

Both the Norwegian Spring Spawning herring (Clupea harengus) and the Northeast Arctic (NEA) cod (Gadus morhua) are examples of strong stock reduction and decline of the associated fisheries due to overfishing followed by a recovery. Cod and herring are both part of the Barents Sea ecosystem, which has experienced major warming events in the early (1920–1940) and late 20th century. While the collapse or near collapse of these stocks seems to be linked to an instability created by overfishing and climate, the difference of population dynamics before and after is not fully understood. In particular, it is unclear how the changes in population dynamics before and after the collapses are associated with biotic interactions. The combination of the availability of unique long‐term time series for herring and cod makes it a well‐suited study system to investigate the effects of collapse. We examine how species interactions may differently affect the herring and cod population dynamic before and after a collapse. Particularly we explore, using a GAM modeling approach, how herring could affect cod and vice versa. We found that the effect of cod biomass on herring that was generally positive (i.e., covariation) but the effect became negative after the collapse (i.e., predation or competition). Likewise a change occurred for the cod, the juvenile herring biomass that had no effect before the collapse had a negative effect after. Our results indicate that the population collapses may alter the inter‐specific interactions and response to abiotic environmental changes. While the stocks are at similar abundance levels before and after the collapses, the system is potentially different in its functioning and may require different management action.     

Insulin-like growth factor-1 is associated with life-history variation across Mammalia

Despite the diversity of mammalian life histories, persistent patterns of covariation have been identified, such as the ‘fast–slow’ axis of life-history covariation. Smaller species generally exhibit ‘faster’ life histories, developing and reproducing rapidly, but dying young. Hormonal mechanisms with pleiotropic effects may mediate such broad patterns of life-history variation. Insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) is one such mechanism because heightened IGF-1 activity is related to traits associated with faster life histories, such as increased growth and reproduction, but decreased lifespan. Using comparative methods, we show that among 41 mammalian species, increased plasma IGF-1 concentrations are associated with fast life histories and altricial reproductive patterns. Interspecific path analyses show that the effects of IGF-1 on these broad patterns of life-history variation are through its direct effects on some individual life-history traits (adult body size, growth rate, basal metabolic rate) and through its indirect effects on the remaining life-history traits. Our results suggest that the role of IGF-1 as a mechanism mediating life-history variation is conserved over the evolutionary time period defining mammalian diversification, that hormone–trait linkages can evolve as a unit, and that suites of life-history traits could be adjusted in response to selection through changes in plasma IGF-1.     

Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese: Predation,density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high‐arctic warming

Climate change is most rapid in the Arctic, posing both benefits and challenges for migratory herbivores. However, population‐dynamic responses to climate change are generally difficult to predict, due to concurrent changes in other trophic levels. Migratory species are also exposed to contrasting climate trends and density regimes over the annual cycle. Thus, determining how climate change impacts their population dynamics requires an understanding of how weather directly or indirectly (through trophic interactions and carryover effects) affects reproduction and survival across migratory stages, while accounting for density dependence. Here, we analyse the overall implications of climate change for a local non‐hunted population of high‐arctic Svalbard barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis, using 28 years of individual‐based data. By identifying the main drivers of reproductive stages (egg production, hatching and fledging) and age‐specific survival rates, we quantify their impact on population growth. Recent climate change in Svalbard enhanced egg production and hatching success through positive effects of advanced spring onset (snow melt) and warmer summers (i.e. earlier vegetation green‐up) respectively. Contrastingly, there was a strong temporal decline in fledging probability due to increased local abundance of the Arctic fox, the main predator. While weather during the non‐breeding season influenced geese through a positive effect of temperature (UK wintering grounds) on adult survival and a positive carryover effect of rainfall (spring stopover site in Norway) on egg production, these covariates showed no temporal trends. However, density‐dependent effects occurred throughout the annual cycle, and the steadily increasing total flyway population size caused negative trends in overwinter survival and carryover effects on egg production. The combination of density‐dependent processes and direct and indirect climate change effects across life history stages appeared to stabilize local population size. Our study emphasizes the need for holistic approaches when studying population‐dynamic responses to global change in migratory species.     

The relative importance of direct and indirect effects of hunting mortality on the population dynamics of brown bears

There is increasing evidence of indirect effects of hunting on populations. In species with sexually selected infanticide (SSI), hunting may decrease juvenile survival by increasing male turnover. We aimed to evaluate the relative importance of direct and indirect effects of hunting via SSI on the population dynamics of the Scandinavian brown bear (Ursus arctos). We performed prospective and retrospective demographic perturbation analyses for periods with low and high hunting pressures. All demographic rates, except yearling survival, were lower under high hunting pressure, which led to a decline in population growth under high hunting pressure (λ = 0.975; 95% CI = 0.914–1.011). Hunting had negative indirect effects on the population through an increase in SSI, which lowered cub survival and possibly also fecundity rates. Our study suggests that SSI could explain 13.6% of the variation in population growth. Hunting also affected the relative importance of survival and fecundity of adult females for population growth, with fecundity being more important under low hunting pressure and survival more important under high hunting pressure. Our study sheds light on the importance of direct and indirect effects of hunting on population dynamics, and supports the contention that hunting can have indirect negative effects on populations through SSI.     

Ecological forecasting under climate change: the case of Baltic cod

Good decision making for fisheries and marine ecosystems requires a capacity to anticipate the consequences of management under different scenarios of climate change. The necessary ecological forecasting calls for ecosystem-based models capable of integrating multiple drivers across trophic levels and properly including uncertainty. The methodology presented here assesses the combined impacts of climate and fishing on marine food-web dynamics and provides estimates of the confidence envelope of the forecasts. It is applied to cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic Sea, which is vulnerable to climate-related decline in salinity owing to both direct and indirect effects (i.e. through species interactions) on early-life survival. A stochastic food web-model driven by regional climate scenarios is used to produce quantitative forecasts of cod dynamics in the twenty-first century. The forecasts show how exploitation would have to be adjusted in order to achieve sustainable management under different climate scenarios.     

Nonlinearity in interspecific interactions in response to climate change: Cod and haddock as an example

Climate change has profound ecological effects, yet our understanding of how trophic interactions among species are affected by climate change is still patchy. The sympatric Atlantic haddock and cod are co‐occurring across the North Atlantic. They compete for food at younger stages and thereafter the former is preyed by the latter. Climate change might affect the interaction and coexistence of these two species. Particularly, the increase in sea temperature (ST) has been shown to affect distribution, population growth and trophic interactions in marine systems. We used 33‐year long time series of haddock and cod abundances estimates from two data sources (acoustic and trawl survey) to analyse the dynamic effect of climate on the coexistence of these two sympatric species in the Arcto‐Boreal Barents Sea. Using a Bayesian state‐space threshold model, we demonstrated that long‐term climate variation, as expressed by changes of ST, affected species demography through different influences on density‐independent processes. The interaction between cod and haddock has shifted in the last two decades due to an increase in ST, altering the equilibrium abundances and the dynamics of the system. During warm years (ST over ca. 4°C), the increase in the cod abundance negatively affected haddock abundance while it did not during cold years. This change in interactions therefore changed the equilibrium population size with a higher population size during warm years. Our analyses show that long‐term climate change in the Arcto‐Boreal system can generate differences in the equilibrium conditions of species assemblages.     

Forecasting future recruitment success for Atlantic cod in the warming and acidifying Barents Sea

Productivity of marine fish stocks is known to be affected by environmental and ecological drivers, and global climate change is anticipated to alter recruitment success of many stocks. While the direct effects of environmental drivers on fish early life stage survival can be quantified experimentally, indirect effects in marine ecosystems and the role of adaptation are still highly uncertain. We developed an integrative model for the effects of ocean warming and acidification on the early life stages of Atlantic cod in the Barents Sea, termed SCREI (Simulator of Cod Recruitment under Environmental Influences). Experimental results on temperature and CO₂ effects on egg fertilization, egg and larval survival and development times are incorporated. Calibration using empirical time series of egg production, temperature, food and predator abundance reproduces age‐0 recruitment over three decades. We project trajectories of recruitment success under different scenarios and quantify confidence limits based on variation in experiments. A publicly accessible web version of the SCREI model can be run under www.oceanchange.uni-bremen.de/ ;SCREI. Severe reductions in average age‐0 recruitment success of Barents Sea cod are projected under uncompensated warming and acidification toward the middle to end of this century. Although high population stochasticity was found, considerable rates of evolutionary adaptation to acidification and shifts in organismal thermal windows would be needed to buffer impacts on recruitment. While increases in food availability may mitigate short‐term impacts, an increase in egg production achieved by stock management could provide more long‐term safety for cod recruitment success. The SCREI model provides a novel integration of multiple driver effects in different life stages and enables an estimation of uncertainty associated with interindividual and ecological variation. The model thus helps to advance toward an improved empirical foundation for quantifying climate change impacts on marine fish recruitment, relevant for ecosystem‐based assessments of marine systems under climate change.     

Biodiversity and exploitation of the main fish stocks in the Norwegian - Barents Sea ecosystem

Juvenile herring and capelin are the main stocks of plankton feeders in the Barents Sea, the cod is the dominant predator. Warm climate favours recruitment of herring and cod, but large stocks of juvenile herring hamper survival of the capelin fry. Since the early 1970s, the herring stock has been grossly overexploited, which could have led to an imbalance in the state of the predatorprey relationships in the Barents Sea. In the 1970s and early 80s, however, cod could feed on capelin which had excellent growth and recruitment conditions when the herring was absent. The consequences of the reduced herring stock were triggered in the mid 1980s, when excellent recruitment conditions for herring and cod occurred. Three abundant year classes of cod were recruited, but the herring stock was not sufficiently large to take full advantage of the favourable recruitment conditions. Given the lack of juvenile herring and a reduced capelin stock, the rapidly growing cod stock grazed down all other available prey species in the area, including its own progeny, and starved cod, seabirds and seals have in later years appeared on the north Norwegian coast. The capelin fishery collapsed, and the traditional coastal cod fisheries have been struck by the most serious crisis on record.     

Temperature‐induced multi‐species cohort effects in sympatric snakes

In reptiles, reproductive maturity is often determined by size rather than age. Consequently, growth early in life may influence population dynamics through effects on generation time and survival to reproduction. Because reproductive phenology and pre‐ and post‐natal growth are temperature dependent, environmental conditions may induce multi‐species cohort effects on body size in sympatric reptiles. I present evidence of this using 10 years of neonatal size data for three sympatric viviparous snakes, Dekay''s Brown snakes (Storeria dekayi), Red‐bellied Snakes (S. occipitomaculata), and Common Garter snakes (Thamnophis sirtalis). End‐of‐season neonatal size varied in parallel across species such that snout–vent length was 36%–61% greater and mass was 65%–223% greater in years when gestating females could achieve higher April–May (vs. June–July or August–September) operative temperatures. Thus, temperature had a larger impact during follicular enlargement and ovulation than during gestation or post‐natal growth. Multi‐species cohort effects like these may affect population dynamics and the magnitude of these effects may increase with climate change.     

Fishing,predation, and temperature drive herring decline in a large marine ecosystem

Since 1960, landings of Atlantic herring have been the greatest of any marine species in Canada, surpassing Atlantic cod and accounting for 24% of the total seafood harvested in Atlantic Canada. The Scotian Shelf‐Bay of Fundy herring fisheries (NAFO Division 4VWX) is among Canada''s oldest and drives this productivity, accounting for up to 75% of the total herring catch in some years. The stocks’ productivity and overall health have declined since 1965. Despite management measures to promote recovery implemented since 2003, biomass remains low and is declining. The factors that drive the productivity of 4VWX herring are primarily unresolved, likely impeding the effectiveness of management actions on this stock. We evaluated potential drivers of herring variability by analyzing 52 time‐series that describe the temporal and spatial evolution of the 4VWX herring population and the physical, ecological, and anthropogenic factors that could affect them using structural equation models. Variation in herring biomass was best accounted for by the exploitation rate''s negative effect and the geographic distribution of fishing and recruitment. Thermal phenology and temperature adversely and egg predation positively impacted the early life stage mortality rate and, ultimately, adult biomass. These findings are broadly relevant to fisheries management, but particularly for 4VWX herring, where the current management approach does not consider their early life stage dynamics or assess them within the ecosystem or climate change contexts.     

Projecting demographic responses to climate change: adult and juvenile survival respond differently to direct and indirect effects of weather in a passerine population

Few studies have quantitatively projected changes in demography in response to climate change, yet doing so can provide important insights into the processes that may lead to population declines and changes in species distributions. Using a long‐term mark‐recapture data set, we examined the influence of multiple direct and indirect effects of weather on adult and juvenile survival for a population of Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia) in California. We found evidence for a positive, direct effect of winter temperature on adult survival, and a positive, indirect effect of prior rainy season precipitation on juvenile survival, which was consistent with an effect of precipitation on food availability during the breeding season. We used these relationships, and climate projections of significantly warmer and slightly drier winter weather by the year 2100, to project a significant increase in mean adult survival (12–17%) and a slight decrease in mean juvenile survival (4–6%) under the B1 and A2 climate change scenarios. Together with results from previous studies on seasonal fecundity and postfledging survival in this population, we integrated these results in a population model and projected increases in the population growth rate under both climate change scenarios. Our results underscore the importance of considering multiple, direct, and indirect effects of weather throughout the annual cycle, as well as differences in the responses of each life stage to climate change. Projecting demographic responses to climate change can identify not only how populations will be affected by climate change but also indicate the demographic process(es) and specific mechanisms that may be responsible. This information can, in turn, inform climate change adaptation plans, help prioritize future research, and identify where limited conservation resources will be most effectively and efficiently spent.     

Influence of Climate Change and Trophic Coupling across Four Trophic Levels in the Celtic Sea

Climate change has had profound effects upon marine ecosystems, impacting across all trophic levels from plankton to apex predators. Determining the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems requires understanding the direct effects on all trophic levels as well as indirect effects mediated by trophic coupling. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change on the pelagic food web in the Celtic Sea, a productive shelf region in the Northeast Atlantic. Using long-term data, we examined possible direct and indirect ‘bottom-up’ climate effects across four trophic levels: phytoplankton, zooplankton, mid-trophic level fish and seabirds. During the period 1986–2007, although there was no temporal trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the decadal mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Celtic Sea increased by 0.66±0.02°C. Despite this, there was only a weak signal of climate change in the Celtic Sea food web. Changes in plankton community structure were found, however this was not related to SST or NAO. A negative relationship occurred between herring abundance (0- and 1-group) and spring SST (0-group: p = 0.02, slope = −0.305±0.125; 1-group: p = 0.04, slope = −0.410±0.193). Seabird demographics showed complex species–specific responses. There was evidence of direct effects of spring NAO (on black-legged kittiwake population growth rate: p = 0.03, slope = 0.0314±0.014) as well as indirect bottom-up effects of lagged spring SST (on razorbill breeding success: p = 0.01, slope = −0.144±0.05). Negative relationships between breeding success and population growth rate of razorbills and common guillemots may be explained by interactions between mid-trophic level fish. Our findings show that the impacts of climate change on the Celtic Sea ecosystem is not as marked as in nearby regions (e.g. the North Sea), emphasizing the need for more research at regional scales.     

Recruitment variability in North Atlantic cod and match-mismatch dynamics

Background

Fisheries exploitation, habitat destruction, and climate are important drivers of variability in recruitment success. Understanding variability in recruitment can reveal mechanisms behind widespread decline in the abundance of key species in marine and terrestrial ecosystems. For fish populations, the match-mismatch theory hypothesizes that successful recruitment is a function of the timing and duration of larval fish abundance and prey availability. However, the underlying mechanisms of match-mismatch dynamics and the factors driving spatial differences between high and low recruitment remain poorly understood.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used empirical observations of larval fish abundance, a mechanistic individual-based model, and a reanalysis of ocean temperature data from 1960 to 2002 to estimate the survival of larval cod (Gadus morhua). From the model, we quantified how survival rates changed during the warmest and coldest years at four important cod spawning sites in the North Atlantic. The modeled difference in survival probability was not large for any given month between cold or warm years. However, the cumulative effect of higher growth rates and survival through the entire spawning season in warm years was substantial with 308%, 385%, 154%, and 175% increases in survival for Georges Bank, Iceland, North Sea, and Lofoten cod stocks, respectively. We also found that the importance of match-mismatch dynamics generally increased with latitude.

Conclusions/Significance

Our analyses indicate that a key factor for enhancing survival is the duration of the overlap between larval and prey abundance and not the actual timing of the peak abundance. During warm years, the duration of the overlap between larval fish and their prey is prolonged due to an early onset of the spring bloom. This prolonged season enhances cumulative growth and survival, leading to a greater number of large individuals with enhanced potential for survival to recruitment.     

A century of fish growth in relation to climate change,population dynamics and exploitation

Marine ecosystems, particularly in high‐latitude regions such as the Arctic, have been significantly affected by human activities and contributions to climate change. Evaluating how fish populations responded to past changes in their environment is helpful for evaluating their future patterns, but is often hindered by the lack of long‐term biological data available. Using otolith increments of Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) as a proxy for individual growth, we developed a century‐scale biochronology (1924–2014) based on the measurements of 3,894 fish, which revealed significant variations in cod growth over the last 91 years. We combined mixed‐effect modeling and path analysis to relate these growth variations to selected climate, population and fishing‐related factors. Cod growth was negatively related to cod population size and positively related to capelin population size, one of the most important prey items. This suggests that density‐dependent effects are the main source of growth variability due to competition for resources and cannibalism. Growth was also positively correlated with warming sea temperatures but negatively correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, suggesting contrasting effects of climate warming at different spatial scales. Fishing pressure had a significant but weak negative direct impact on growth. Additionally, path analysis revealed that the selected growth factors were interrelated. Capelin biomass was positively related to sea temperature and negatively influenced by herring biomass, while cod biomass was mainly driven by fishing mortality. Together, these results give a better understanding of how multiple interacting factors have shaped cod growth throughout a century, both directly and indirectly.     

Ontogeny constrains phenology: opportunities for activity and reproduction interact to dictate potential phenologies in a changing climate

As global warming has lengthened the active seasons of many species, we need a framework for predicting how advances in phenology shape the life history and the resulting fitness of organisms. Using an individual‐based model, we show how warming differently affects annual cycles of development, growth, reproduction and activity in a group of North American lizards. Populations in cold regions can grow and reproduce more when warming lengthens their active season. However, future warming of currently warm regions advances the reproductive season but reduces the survival of embryos and juveniles. Hence, stressful temperatures during summer can offset predicted gains from extended growth seasons and select for lizards that reproduce after the warm summer months. Understanding these cascading effects of climate change may be crucial to predict shifts in the life history and demography of species.     

Mechanistic insights into the effects of climate change on larval cod

Understanding the biophysical mechanisms that shape variability in fisheries recruitment is critical for estimating the effects of climate change on fisheries. In this study, we used an Earth System Model (ESM) and a mechanistic individual‐based model (IBM) for larval fish to analyze how climate change may impact the growth and survival of larval cod in the North Atlantic. We focused our analysis on five regions that span the current geographical range of cod and are known to contain important spawning populations. Under the SRES A2 (high emissions) scenario, the ESM‐projected surface ocean temperatures are expected to increase by >1 °C for 3 of the 5 regions, and stratification is expected to increase at all sites between 1950–1999 and 2050–2099. This enhanced stratification is projected to decrease large (>5 μm ESD) phytoplankton productivity and mesozooplankton biomass at all 5 sites. Higher temperatures are projected to increase larval metabolic costs, which combined with decreased food resources will reduce larval weight, increase the probability of larvae dying from starvation and increase larval exposure to visual and invertebrate predators at most sites. If current concentrations of piscivore and invertebrate predators are maintained, larval survival is projected to decrease at all five sites by 2050–2099. In contrast to past observed responses to climate variability in which warm anomalies led to better recruitment in cold‐water stocks, our simulations indicated that reduced prey availability under climate change may cause a reduction in larval survival despite higher temperatures in these regions. In the lower prey environment projected under climate change, higher metabolic costs due to higher temperatures outweigh the advantages of higher growth potential, leading to negative effects on northern cod stocks. Our results provide an important first large‐scale assessment of the impacts of climate change on larval cod in the North Atlantic.     

Grow fast,die young: Does compensatory growth reduce survival of juvenile blacktip sharks (Carcharhinus limbatus) in the western Gulf of Mexico?

Effective conservation and management necessitate an understanding of the ecological mechanisms that shape species life histories in order to predict how variability in natural and anthropogenic impacts will alter growth rates, recruitment, and survival. Among these mechanisms, the interaction between parturition timing and prey availability frequently influences offspring success, particularly when postnatal care is absent. Here, we assess how parturition timing and nursery conditions, including prey abundance and environmental conditions, influence the growth and potential survival of blacktip sharks (Carcharhinus limbatus) in western Gulf of Mexico (GOM) estuaries over their first year. Catch data from long‐term gillnet monitoring allowed for clear delineation of cohorts based on size frequency distribution plots, and showed that late parturition cohorts born in estuaries with fewer prey resources exhibited more rapid growth than early parturition cohorts that experienced more abundant prey. Compensatory behaviors that promoted accelerated growth led to reduced second year residency, likely due to reduced survival resultant from greater risk taking and potentially due to reduced site fidelity attributed to larger body size. Water temperatures influenced blacktip growth rates through physiological increases in metabolism and potential premigratory foraging cues associated with cooling temperatures. Gradual warming of the GOM (0.03°C year⁻¹) was also correlated with earlier parturition across the study period (1982–2017), similar to other migratory species. Considering current trends in climate and associated phenological shifts in many animals, testing hypotheses assessing compensatory growth‐risk trade‐offs is important moving forward to predict changes in life histories and associated recruitment in concert with current and future conservation actions, like wildlife management.