Climate change and the timing, magnitude, and composition of the phytoplankton spring bloom

In this article, we show by mesocosm experiments that winter and spring warming will lead to substantial changes in the spring bloom of phytoplankton. The timing of the spring bloom shows only little response to warming as such, while light appears to play a more important role in its initiation. The daily light dose needed for the start of the phytoplankton spring bloom in our experiments agrees well with a recently published critical light intensity found in a field survey of the North Atlantic (around 1.3 mol photons m^?2 day^?1). Experimental temperature elevation had a strong effect on phytoplankton peak biomass (decreasing with temperature), mean cell size (decreasing with temperature) and on the share of microplankton diatoms (decreasing with temperature). All these changes will lead to poorer feeding conditions for copepod zooplankton and, thus, to a less efficient energy transfer from primary to fish production under a warmer climate.     

Climate change and the phytoplankton spring bloom: warming and overwintering zooplankton have similar effects on phytoplankton

Indoor mesocosms were used to study the combined effect of warming and of different densities of overwintering mesozooplankton (mainly copepods) on the spring development of phytoplankton in shallow, coastal waters. Similar to previous studies, warming accelerated the spring phytoplankton peak by ca. 1 day °C^?1 whereas zooplankton did not significantly influence timing. Phytoplankton biomass during the experimental period decreased with warming and with higher densities of overwintering zooplankton. Similarly, average cell size and average effective particle size (here: colony size) decreased both with zooplankton density and warming. A decrease in phytoplankton particle size is generally considered at typical footprint of copepod grazing. We conclude that warming induced changes in the magnitude and structure of the phytoplankton spring bloom cannot be understood without considering grazing by overwintering zooplankton.     

Saving for the future: Pre‐winter uptake of algal lipids supports copepod egg production in spring

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Temperature is the key factor explaining interannual variability of Daphnia development in spring: a modelling study

Plankton succession during spring/early summer in temperate lakes is characterised by a highly predictable pattern: a phytoplankton bloom is grazed down by zooplankton (Daphnia) inducing a clear-water phase. This sequence of events is commonly understood as a cycle of consumer-resource dynamics, i.e. zooplankton growth is driven by food availability. Here we suggest, using a modelling study based on a size-structured Daphnia population model, that temperature and not food is the dominant factor driving interannual variability of Daphnia population dynamics during spring. Simply forcing this model with a seasonal temperature regime typical for temperate lakes is sufficient for generating the distinctive seasonal trajectory of Daphnia abundances observed in meso-eutrophic temperate lakes. According to a scenario analysis, a forward shift of the vernal temperature increase by 60 days will advance the timing of the Daphnia maximum on average by 54 days, while a forward shift in the start of the spring bloom by 60 days will advance the Daphnia maximum only by less than a third (17 days). Hence, the timing of temperature increase was more important for the timing of Daphnia development than the timing of the onset of algal growth. The effect of temperature is also large compared to the effect of applying different Daphnia mortality rates (0.055 or 0.1 day(-1), 38 days), an almost tenfold variation in phytoplankton carrying capacity (25 days) and a tenfold variation in Daphnia overwintering abundance (3 days). However, the standing stock of Daphnia at its peak was almost exclusively controlled by the phytoplankton carrying capacity of the habitat and seems to be essentially independent of temperature. Hence, whereas food availability determines the standing stock of Daphnia at its spring maximum, temperature appears to be the most important factor driving the timing of the Daphnia maximum and the clear-water phase in spring.     

An indoor mesocosm system to study the effect of climate change on the late winter and spring succession of Baltic Sea phyto- and zooplankton

An indoor mesocosm system was set up to study the response of phytoplankton and zooplankton spring succession to winter and spring warming of sea surface temperatures. The experimental temperature regimes consisted of the decadal average of the Kiel Bight, Baltic Sea, and three elevated regimes with 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C temperature difference from that at baseline. While the peak of the phytoplankton spring bloom was accelerated only weakly by increasing temperatures (1.4 days per degree Celsius), the subsequent biomass minimum of phytoplankton was accelerated more strongly (4.25 days per degree Celsius). Phytoplankton size structure showed a pronounced response to warming, with large phytoplankton being more dominant in the cooler mesocosms. The first seasonal ciliate peak was accelerated by 2.1 days per degree Celsius and the second one by 2.0 days per degree Celsius. The over-wintering copepod populations declined faster in the warmer mesocosm, and the appearance of nauplii was strongly accelerated by temperature (9.2 days per degree Celsius). The strong difference between the acceleration of the phytoplankton peak and the acceleration of the nauplii could be one of the “Achilles heels” of pelagic systems subject to climate change, because nauplii are the most starvation-sensitive life cycle stage of copepods and the most important food item of first-feeding fish larvae. Priority programme of the German Research Foundation—contribution 3.     

Centennial decline in North Sea water clarity causes strong delay in phytoplankton bloom timing

With climate warming, a widespread expectation is that events in spring, such as flowering, bird migrations, and insect bursts, will occur earlier because of increasing temperature. At high latitudes, increased ocean temperature is suggested to advance the spring phytoplankton bloom due to earlier stabilization of the water column. However, climate warming is also expected to cause browning in lakes and rivers due to increases in terrestrial greening, ultimately reducing water clarity in coastal areas where freshwater drain. In shallow areas, decreased retention of sediments on the seabed will add to this effect. Both browning and resuspension of sediments imply a reduction of the euphotic zone and Sverdrup's critical depth leading to a delay in the spring bloom, counteracting the effect of increasing temperature. Here, we provide evidence that such a transparency reduction has already taken place in both the deep and shallow areas of the North Sea during the 20th century. A sensitivity analysis using a water column model suggests that the reduced transparency might have caused up to 3 weeks delay in the spring bloom over the last century. This delay stands in contrast to the earlier bloom onset expected from global warming, thus highlighting the importance of including changing water transparency in analyses of phytoplankton phenology and primary production. This appears to be of particular relevance for coastal waters, where increased concentrations of absorbing and scattering substances (sediments, dissolved organic matter) have been suggested to lead to coastal darkening.     

Earlier onset of the spring phytoplankton bloom in lakes of the temperate zone in a warmer climate

The decoupling of trophic interactions is potentially one of the most severe consequences of climate warming. In lakes and oceans the timing of phytoplankton blooms affects competition within the plankton community as well as food–web interactions with zooplankton and fish. Using Upper Lake Constance as an example, we present a model‐based analysis that predicts that in a future warmer climate, the onset of the spring phytoplankton bloom will occur earlier in the year than it does at present. This is a result of the earlier occurrence of the transition from strong to weak vertical mixing in spring, and of the associated earlier onset of stratification. According to our simulations a shift in the timing of phytoplankton growth resulting from a consistently warmer climate will exceed that resulting from a single unusually warm year. The numerical simulations are complemented by a statistical analysis of long‐term data from Upper Lake Constance which demonstrates that oligotrophication has a negligible effect on the timing of phytoplankton growth in spring and that an early onset of the spring phytoplankton bloom is associated with high air temperatures and low wind speeds.     

Warming, plant phenology and the spatial dimension of trophic mismatch for large herbivores

Temporal advancement of resource availability by warming in seasonal environments can reduce reproductive success of vertebrates if their own reproductive phenology does not also advance with warming. Indirect evidence from large-scale analyses suggests, however, that migratory vertebrates might compensate for this by tracking phenological variation across landscapes. Results from our two-year warming experiment combined with seven years of observations of plant phenology and offspring production by caribou (Rangifer tarandus) in Greenland, however, contradict evidence from large-scale analyses. At spatial scales relevant to the foraging horizon of individual herbivores, spatial variability in plant phenology was reduced--not increased--by both experimental and observed warming. Concurrently, offspring production by female caribou declined with reductions in spatial variability in plant phenology. By highlighting the spatial dimension of trophic mismatch, these results reveal heretofore unexpected adverse consequences of climatic warming for herbivore population ecology.     

淮河中游浮游甲壳动物群落结构的季节动态

2007年1-12月对淮河中游浮游甲壳动物群落结构的季节动态进行研究。共记录浮游甲壳动物24种, 其中枝角类8属13种、桡足类9属11种。枝角类在4月和9月形成两个峰值, 即(28.2±21.6) ind/L和(40.8±10.1) ind/L, 其优势种分别为僧帽溞 Daphnia cucullata和脆弱象鼻溞 Bosmina fatalis。捕食性桡足类-近邻剑水蚤Cyclops vicinus vicinus、广布中剑水蚤Mesocyclops leuckarti和台湾温剑水蚤Thermocyclops taihokuensis分别在4月、5月和6月形成较大的密度。汤匙华哲水蚤Sinocalanus dorrii和中华窄腹剑水蚤Limnoithona sinensis分别在5月和8月占优势。小型浮游植物(≤20 μm)生物量在4月达到最大值, 之后快速下降, 而较大型浮游植物(>20 μm)生物量从4月上升, 到7月达到最大值。典型冗余分析(RDA)显示, 溞属Daphnia的仲春下降与捕食性桡足类(尤其是近邻剑水蚤)的摄食压力、浮游植物生物量的季节变化密切相关。       

Climatic effects on the phenology of lake processes

Populations living in seasonal environments are exposed to systematic changes in physical conditions that restrict the growth and reproduction of many species to only a short time window of the annual cycle. Several studies have shown that climate changes over the latter part of the 20th century affected the phenology and population dynamics of single species. However, the key limitation to forecasting the effects of changing climate on ecosystems lies in understanding how it will affect interactions among species. We investigated the effects of climatic and biotic drivers on physical and biological lake processes, using a historical dataset of 40 years from Lake Washington, USA, and dynamic time‐series models to explain changes in the phenological patterns among physical and biological components of pelagic ecosystems. Long‐term climate warming and variability because of large‐scale climatic patterns like Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO) extended the duration of the stratification period by 25 days over the last 40 years. This change was due mainly to earlier spring stratification (16 days) and less to later stratification termination in fall (9 days). The phytoplankton spring bloom advanced roughly in parallel to stratification onset and in 2002 it occurred about 19 days earlier than it did in 1962, indicating the tight connection of spring phytoplankton growth to turbulent conditions. In contrast, the timing of the clear‐water phase showed high variability and was mainly driven by biotic factors. Among the zooplankton species, the timing of spring peaks in the rotifer Keratella advanced strongly, whereas Leptodiaptomus and Daphnia showed slight or no changes. These changes have generated a growing time lag between the spring phytoplankton peak and zooplankton peak, which can be especially critical for the cladoceran Daphnia. Water temperature, PDO, and food availability affected the timing of the spring peak in zooplankton. Overall, the impact of PDO on the phenological processes were stronger compared with ENSO. Our results highlight that climate affects physical and biological processes differently, which can interrupt energy flow among trophic levels, making ecosystem responses to climate change difficult to forecast.     

Detection of climate change‐driven trends in phytoplankton phenology

The timing of the annual phytoplankton spring bloom is likely to be altered in response to climate change. Quantifying that response has, however, been limited by the typically coarse temporal resolution (monthly) of global climate models. Here, we use higher resolution model output (maximum 5 days) to investigate how phytoplankton bloom timing changes in response to projected 21st century climate change, and how the temporal resolution of data influences the detection of long‐term trends. We find that bloom timing generally shifts later at mid‐latitudes and earlier at high and low latitudes by ~5 days per decade to 2100. The spatial patterns of bloom timing are similar in both low (monthly) and high (5 day) resolution data, although initiation dates are later at low resolution. The magnitude of the trends in bloom timing from 2006 to 2100 is very similar at high and low resolution, with the result that the number of years of data needed to detect a trend in phytoplankton phenology is relatively insensitive to data temporal resolution. We also investigate the influence of spatial scales on bloom timing and find that trends are generally more rapidly detectable after spatial averaging of data. Our results suggest that, if pinpointing the start date of the spring bloom is the priority, the highest possible temporal resolution data should be used. However, if the priority is detecting long‐term trends in bloom timing, data at a temporal resolution of 20 days are likely to be sufficient. Furthermore, our results suggest that data sources which allow for spatial averaging will promote more rapid trend detection.     

Should we expect a relationship between primary production and fisheries? The role of copepod dynamics as a filter of trophic variability

It is frequently put forward that variability in fisheries productivity is related to interannual variation in physical processes affecting phytoplankton productivity. Here, alternative views of the role of copepods as an intermediary link in North Atlantic marine food chains are discussed. Following Bainbridge & McKay (1968) and Cushing (1982), a strong link between phytoplankton and fisheries variability is proposed for some fish stocks, like cod and redfish, that spawn in spring in regions where Calanus finmarchicus dominates the plankton. Otherwise, in regions where small copepods and other microzooplankton dominate the prey field productivity for larval fish, a weak link is proposed. Experimental studies, including laboratory observations of copepod reproductive response to food concentration and incubation techniques for measuring in situ reproductive rates, are important for understanding how copepod dynamics may filter year-to-year differences in phytoplankton production cycles.     

Climate change impacts on mismatches between phytoplankton blooms and fish spawning phenology

Substantial interannual variability in marine fish recruitment (i.e., the number of young fish entering a fishery each year) has been hypothesized to be related to whether the timing of fish spawning matches that of seasonal plankton blooms. Environmental processes that control the phenology of blooms, such as stratification, may differ from those that influence fish spawning, such as temperature‐linked reproductive maturation. These different controlling mechanisms could cause the timing of these events to diverge under climate change with negative consequences for fisheries. We use an earth system model to examine the impact of a high‐emissions, climate‐warming scenario (RCP8.5) on the future spawning time of two classes of temperate, epipelagic fishes: “geographic spawners” whose spawning grounds are defined by fixed geographic features (e.g., rivers, estuaries, reefs) and “environmental spawners” whose spawning grounds move responding to variations in environmental properties, such as temperature. By the century's end, our results indicate that projections of increased stratification cause spring and summer phytoplankton blooms to start 16 days earlier on average (±0.05 days SE) at latitudes >40°N. The temperature‐linked phenology of geographic spawners changes at a rate twice as fast as phytoplankton, causing these fishes to spawn before the bloom starts across >85% of this region. “Extreme events,” defined here as seasonal mismatches >30 days that could lead to fish recruitment failure, increase 10‐fold for geographic spawners in many areas under the RCP8.5 scenario. Mismatches between environmental spawners and phytoplankton were smaller and less widespread, although sizable mismatches still emerged in some regions. This indicates that range shifts undertaken by environmental spawners may increase the resiliency of fishes to climate change impacts associated with phenological mismatches, potentially buffering against declines in larval fish survival, recruitment, and fisheries. Our model results are supported by empirical evidence from ecosystems with multidecadal observations of both fish and phytoplankton phenology.     

Climate-induced variability in Calanus marshallae populations

Calanus marshallae is the dominant mesozooplankton copepod speciesover the south-eastern Bering Sea middle shelf. Climate-inducedchanges in the magnitude and timing of production by C. marshallaemay affect the living marine resources of the Bering Sea shelfecosystem. We examined springtime abundance, gonadal maturityand stage distributions of C. marshallae copepodites duringfive consecutive years (1995–1999) that spanned the rangeof variability observed over the past 34 years in terms of watertemperature and ice cover. We compared our results with previouswork conducted during cool (1980) and warm (1981) years [ Smith,S. L. and Vidal, J. (1986) Cont. Shelf Res., 5, 215–239].The spring phytoplankton bloom began relatively early in associationwith ice (1995, 1997, 1999), but began late when ice was absentor retreated early (1996, 1998). Egg production began well beforethe bloom and continued over a long duration. Copepodites, however,were recruited during a relatively short period, coincidentwith the spring phytoplankton bloom. The relationship betweenbrood stock and spring-generation copepodite abundances wasweak. Copepodite concentrations during May were greatest inyears of most southerly ice extent. Copepodite populations werehighly variable among years, reflecting interannual variabilityin the atmosphere–ice–ocean system.     

Warming accelerates termination of a phytoplankton spring bloom by fungal parasites

Climate change is expected to favour infectious diseases across ecosystems worldwide. In freshwater and marine environments, parasites play a crucial role in controlling plankton population dynamics. Infection of phytoplankton populations will cause a transfer of carbon and nutrients into parasites, which may change the type of food available for higher trophic levels. Some phytoplankton species are inedible to zooplankton, and the termination of their population by parasites may liberate otherwise unavailable carbon and nutrients. Phytoplankton spring blooms often consist of large diatoms inedible for zooplankton, but the zoospores of their fungal parasites may serve as a food source for this higher trophic level. Here, we investigated the impact of warming on the fungal infection of a natural phytoplankton spring bloom and followed the response of a zooplankton community. Experiments were performed in ca. 1000 L indoor mesocosms exposed to a controlled seasonal temperature cycle and a warm (+4 °C) treatment in the period from March to June 2014. The spring bloom was dominated by the diatom Synedra. At the peak of infection over 40% of the Synedra population was infected by a fungal parasite (i.e. a chytrid) in both treatments. Warming did not affect the onset of the Synedra bloom, but accelerated its termination. Peak population density of Synedra tended to be lower in the warm treatments. Furthermore, Synedra carbon: phosphorus stoichiometry increased during the bloom, particularly in the control treatments. This indicates enhanced phosphorus limitation in the control treatments, which may have constrained chytrid development. Timing of the rotifer Keratella advanced in the warm treatments and closely followed chytrid infections. The chytrids' zoospores may thus have served as an alternative food source to Keratella. Our study thus emphasizes the importance of incorporating not only nutrient limitation and grazing, but also parasitism in understanding the response of plankton communities towards global warming.     

Iron limits primary productivity during spring bloom development in the central North Atlantic

We present in situ biophysical measurements and bioassay experiments that demonstrate iron limitation of primary productivity during the spring bloom in the central North Atlantic. Mass balance calculations indicate that nitrate drawdown is iron (Fe)-limited and that aeolian Fe supply to this region cannot support maximal phytoplankton growth during the bloom. Using a simple simulation model, we show that relief of Fe limitation during the spring bloom can increase nitrate drawdown and, hence, new primary production, by 70%. We conclude that the episodic nature of iron supplied by dust deposition is an important factor controlling the dynamics of the spring bloom. From this, we hypothesize that variability in the timing and magnitude of the spring bloom in response to aeolian Fe supply will affect carbon drawdown and food web dynamics in the central North Atlantic.     

Phenology model from surface meteorology does not capture satellite-based greenup estimations

Seasonal temperature change in temperate forests is known to trigger the start of spring growth, and both interannual and spatial variations in spring onset have been tied to climatic variability. Satellite dates are increasingly being used in phenology studies, but to date that has been little effort to link remotely sensed phenology to surface climate records. In this research, we use a two‐parameter spring warming phenology model to explore the relationship between climate and satellite‐based phenology. We employ daily air temperature records between 2000 and 2005 for 171 National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration weather stations located throughout New England to construct spring warming models predicting the onset of spring, as defined by the date of half‐maximum greenness (D₅₀) in deciduous forests as detected from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer. The best spring warming model starts accumulating temperatures after March 20th and when average daily temperatures exceed 5°C. The accumulated heat sums [heating degree day (HDD)] required to reach D₅₀ range from 150 to 300 degree days over New England, with the highest requirements to the south and in coastal regions. We test the ability of the spring warming model to predict phenology against a null photoperiod model (average date of onset). The spring warming model offers little improvement on the null model when predicting D₅₀. Differences between the efficacies of the two models are expressed as the ‘climate sensitivity ratio’ (CSR), which displays coherent spatial patterns. Our results suggest that northern (beech‐maple‐birch) and central (oak‐hickory) hardwood forests respond to climate differently, particularly with disparate requirements for the minimum temperature necessary to begin spring growth (3 and 6°C, respectively). We conclude that spatial location and species composition are critical factors for predicting the phenological response to climate change: satellite observations cannot be linked directly to temperature variability if species or community compositions are unknown.     

Warmer springs lead to mistimed reproduction in great tits (Parus major)

In seasonal environments, the main selection pressure on the timing of reproduction (the ultimate factor) is synchrony between offspring requirements and food availability. However, reproduction is initiated much earlier than the time of maximum food requirement of the offspring. Individuals should therefore start reproduction in response to cues (the proximate factors), available in the environment of reproductive decision making, which predict the later environment of selection. With increasing spring temperatures over the past decades, vegetation phenology has advanced, with a concomitant advancement in the reproduction of some species at higher trophic levels. However, a mismatch between food abundance and offspring needs may occur if changes in the environment of decision making do not match those in the environment of selection. Date of egg laying in a great tit (Parus major) population has not advanced over a 23-year period, but selection for early laying has intensified. We believe that this is the first documented case of an adaptive response being hampered because a changing abiotic factor affects the environment in which a reproductive decision is made differently from the environment in which selection occurs.     

Timing of blooms,algal food quality and Calanus glacialis reproduction and growth in a changing Arctic

The Arctic bloom consists of two distinct categories of primary producers, ice algae growing within and on the underside of the sea ice, and phytoplankton growing in open waters. Long chain omega‐3 fatty acids, a subgroup of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) produced exclusively by these algae, are essential to all marine organisms for successful reproduction, growth, and development. During an extensive field study in the Arctic shelf seas, we followed the seasonal biomass development of ice algae and phytoplankton and their food quality in terms of their relative PUFA content. The first PUFA‐peak occurred in late April during solid ice cover at the onset of the ice algal bloom, and the second PUFA‐peak occurred in early July just after the ice break‐up at the onset of the phytoplankton bloom. The reproduction and growth of the key Arctic grazer Calanus glacialis perfectly coincided with these two bloom events. Females of C. glacialis utilized the high‐quality ice algal bloom to fuel early maturation and reproduction, whereas the resulting offspring had access to ample high‐quality food during the phytoplankton bloom 2 months later. Reduction in sea ice thickness and coverage area will alter the current primary production regime due to earlier ice break‐up and onset of the phytoplankton bloom. A potential mismatch between the two primary production peaks of high‐quality food and the reproductive cycle of key Arctic grazers may have negative consequences for the entire lipid‐driven Arctic marine ecosystem.     

Phytoplankton Spring Bloom Intensity Index for the Baltic Sea Estimated for the years 1992 to 2004

We introduce an index for estimating the annual phytoplankton spring bloom intensity in the Baltic Sea. It is based on chlorophyll a estimates calculated from automatically sampled fluorescence and chlorophyll a measurements on board cargo ships from 1992 to 2004. The intensity is described by an index including information on the chlorophyll a concentration and duration of the spring bloom period. In all of the years studied, the spring bloom was most intense in the Gulf of Finland. In the Gulf of Finland and the Northern Baltic Proper there was a slight tendency for the bloom to start earlier in the spring.