Climate and the range dynamics of species with imperfect detection

Reliable predictions for species range changes require a mechanistic understanding of range dynamics in relation to environmental variation. One obstacle is that most current models are static and confound occurrence with the probability of detecting a species if it occurs at a site. Here we draw attention to recently developed occupancy models, which can be used to examine colonization and local extinction or changes in occupancy over time. These models further account for detection probabilities, which are likely to vary spatially and temporally in many datasets. Occupancy models require repeated presence/absence surveys, for example checklists used in bird atlas projects. As an example, we examine the recent range expansion of hadeda ibises (Bostrychia hagedash) in South African protected areas. Colonization exceeded local extinction in most biomes, and the probability of occurrence was related to local climate. Extensions of the basic occupancy models can estimate abundance or species richness. Occupancy models are an appealing additional tool for studying species' responses to global change.     

The Butterflies of Barro Colorado Island,Panama: Local Extinction since the 1930s

Few data are available about the regional or local extinction of tropical butterfly species. When confirmed, local extinction was often due to the loss of host-plant species. We used published lists and recent monitoring programs to evaluate changes in butterfly composition on Barro Colorado Island (BCI, Panama) between an old (1923–1943) and a recent (1993–2013) period. Although 601 butterfly species have been recorded from BCI during the 1923–2013 period, we estimate that 390 species are currently breeding on the island, including 34 cryptic species, currently only known by their DNA Barcode Index Number. Twenty-three butterfly species that were considered abundant during the old period could not be collected during the recent period, despite a much higher sampling effort in recent times. We consider these species locally extinct from BCI and they conservatively represent 6% of the estimated local pool of resident species. Extinct species represent distant phylogenetic branches and several families. The butterfly traits most likely to influence the probability of extinction were host growth form, wing size and host specificity, independently of the phylogenetic relationships among butterfly species. On BCI, most likely candidates for extinction were small hesperiids feeding on herbs (35% of extinct species). However, contrary to our working hypothesis, extinction of these species on BCI cannot be attributed to loss of host plants. In most cases these host plants remain extant, but they probably subsist at lower or more fragmented densities. Coupled with low dispersal power, this reduced availability of host plants has probably caused the local extinction of some butterfly species. Many more bird than butterfly species have been lost from BCI recently, confirming that small preserves may be far more effective at conserving invertebrates than vertebrates and, therefore, should not necessarily be neglected from a conservation viewpoint.     

Not all kinds of revegetation are created equal: revegetation type influences bird assemblages in threatened Australian woodland ecosystems

The value for biodiversity of large intact areas of native vegetation is well established. The biodiversity value of regrowth vegetation is also increasingly recognised worldwide. However, there can be different kinds of revegetation that have different origins. Are there differences in the richness and composition of biotic communities in different kinds of revegetation? The answer remains unknown or poorly known in many ecosystems. We examined the conservation value of different kinds of revegetation through a comparative study of birds in 193 sites surveyed over ten years in four growth types located in semi-cleared agricultural areas of south-eastern Australia. These growth types were resprout regrowth, seedling regrowth, plantings, and old growth.Our investigation produced several key findings: (1) Marked differences in the bird assemblages of plantings, resprout regrowth, seedling regrowth, and old growth. (2) Differences in the number of species detected significantly more often in the different growth types; 29 species for plantings, 25 for seedling regrowth, 20 for resprout regrowth, and 15 for old growth. (3) Many bird species of conservation concern were significantly more often recorded in resprout regrowth, seedling regrowth or plantings but no species of conservation concern were recorded most often in old growth. We suggest that differences in bird occurrence among different growth types are likely to be strongly associated with growth-type differences in stand structural complexity.Our findings suggest a range of vegetation growth types are likely to be required in a given farmland area to support the diverse array of bird species that have the potential to occur in Australian temperate woodland ecosystems. Our results also highlight the inherent conservation value of regrowth woodland and suggest that current policies which allow it to be cleared or thinned need to be carefully re-examined.     

Local transmission processes and disease-driven host extinctions

Classic infectious disease theory assumes that transmission depends on either the global density of the parasite (for directly transmitted diseases) or its global frequency (for sexually transmitted diseases). One important implication of this dichotomy is that parasite-driven host extinction is only predicted under frequency-dependent transmission. However, transmission is fundamentally a local process between individuals that is determined by their and/or their vector’s behaviour. We examine the implications of local transmission processes to the likelihood of disease-driven host extinction. Local density-dependent transmission can lead to parasite-driven extinction, but extinction is more likely under local frequency-dependent transmission and much more likely when there is active local searching behaviour. Density-dependent directly transmitted diseases spread locally can therefore lead to deterministic host extinction, but locally frequency-dependent passive vector-borne diseases are more likely to cause extinctions. However, it is active searching behaviour either by a vector or between sexual partners that is most likely to cause the host to go extinct. Our work emphasises that local processes are essential in determining parasite-driven extinctions, and the role of parasites in the extinction of rare species may have been underplayed due to the classic assumption of global density-dependent transmission.     

Involvement of a novel efflux system in biofilm-specific resistance to antibiotics

Bacteria growing in biofilms are more resistant to antibiotics than their planktonic counterparts. How this transition occurs is unclear, but it is likely there are multiple mechanisms of resistance that act together in order to provide an increased overall level of resistance to the biofilm. We have identified a novel efflux pump in Pseudomonas aeruginosa that is important for biofilm-specific resistance to a subset of antibiotics. Complete deletion of the genes encoding this pump, PA1874 to PA1877 (PA1874-1877) genes, in an P. aeruginosa PA14 background results in an increase in sensitivity to tobramycin, gentamicin, and ciprofloxacin, specifically when this mutant strain is growing in a biofilm. This efflux pump is more highly expressed in biofilm cells than in planktonic cells, providing an explanation for why these genes are important for biofilm but not planktonic resistance to antibiotics. Furthermore, expression of these genes in planktonic cells increases their resistance to antibiotics. We have previously shown that ndvB is important for biofilm-specific resistance (T. F. Mah, B. Pitts, B. Pellock, G. C. Walker, P. S. Stewart, and G. A. O'Toole, Nature 426:306-310, 2003). Our discovery that combining the ndvB mutation with the PA1874-1877 gene deletion results in a mutant strain that is more sensitive to antibiotics than either single mutant strain suggests that ndvB and PA1874-1877 contribute to two different mechanisms of biofilm-specific resistance to antibiotics.     

Bird species turnover and stochastic extinction in woodland fragments

Year-to-year turnover in bird species composition was recorded across, the whole size range (0 02-30 ha) of 146 woods studied The mean number of resident breeding species both lost and gained per wood between consecutive breeding seasons was 2 (range 0-8) No relationship was found between this absolute turnover rate and woodland area, or any other of 24 predictor variables (describing woodland structure, isolation, connectedness and surrounding land use) Extriction and colonisation rates (in terms of numbers of species lost and gained) were also unrelated to woodland area In all sizes of woods, the species most likely to show local extinctions and colonisations were those with small populations within those woods, but the identity of the species concerned changed as woodland area increased In the smallest woods, the majority of turnover involved common species, such as wren and dunnock, which occurred in only small numbers in these small woods As woodland area increased, these species attained sufficient numbers to usually avoid stochastic extinction The majority of turnover was then due to more specialist (and less numerous) woodland species, such as great-spotted woodpecker and marsh tit, which were usually lacking in small woods In Britain, much existing broadleaved woodland falls within the size range studied Thus the numbers of many bird species are liable to be small enough for yearly turnover in woodland bird communities to be appreciable, and for the long-term persistence of individual species in particular woods to depend on dispersal     

Spatial extent of bird species response to landscape changes: colonisation/extinction dynamics at the community-level in two contrasting habitats

Animal community dynamics in changing landscapes are primarily driven by changes in vegetation structure and ultimately by how species respond to these changes and at which spatial scale. We consider two major components of local community dynamics, species colonisation and extinction. We hypothesise that (1) the optimal spatial extent needed to accurately predict them will differ between these two processes; (2) it will also likely differ from species to species as a result of life history traits differences related to differences in habitat selection and (3) that a species' primary habitat will determine the spatial extent at which it perceives change in vegetation structure. We used data collected over 25 yr in a changing Mediterranean landscape to study bird species local colonisation and extinction patterns in two groups of species typical from two habitats: open farmland and woodland. Vegetation changes were measured at spatial extents ranging from 0.2 to 79 ha. Local species colonisation and extinction estimates were computed using a method accounting for heterogeneity in detection probability among species. We built linear models between local species colonisation/extinction estimates and vegetation changes and examined variations in model quality with respect to the spatial extent at which vegetation changes had been measured. Models for open habitat species showed that colonisation processes operated at the landscape scale (79 ha), while extinction was more tightly linked to local habitat requirements (0.2 ha). Models for woodland species presented a low and constant model quality whatever the spatial extent considered. Our results suggest that the dynamics of the woodland species considered responded to a combination of vegetation changes at several scales and, in particular, to changes in the vertical structure of the vegetation. We highlight the need to explicitly consider spatial extent in studies of habitat selection and of habitat and population dynamics to improve our understanding of the biological consequences of land use changes and guide more effective conservation efforts.     

Local extinctions and recolonisations of passerine bird populations in small woods

This paper considers, for eight species of woodland bird, the factors that influenced both local extinctions and recolonisations in 145 woods over 3 years. In all species, probability of local extinction was inversely related to population size; most local extinctions occurred in woods containing one to three breeding pairs. However, considerable variation in extinction probabilities occurred between species and between years. In addition, the suitability of habitat within a wood (more extinctions in less suitable woods) was important for wren Troglodytes troglodytes, song thrush Turdus philomelos and blue tit Parus caeruleus; also, the structure of the surrounding landscape was important for blue tit, great tit Parus major, and chaffinch Fringilla coelebs (more extinctions in localities with less woodland). In only two species was the probability of recolonisation related to any of the measured variables. Wrens were more likely to recolonise larger woods, whereas song thrushes were more likely to recolonise woods with a high habitat suitability rating and those which are more isolated from other woodland     

中国不同地理区域鸟兽物种丰富度的相关性

生物类群之间物种丰富度的相关性研究是当前物种多样性研究中的热点问题之一,目前,中国尚无相关的研究报道。我们收集了中国三种区域类型：动物地理亚区、行政区和保护区的鸟兽名录,分析了行政区与保护区、动物地理区和经纬度带中鸟兽物种数比值及其相关性。 结果表明：不同区域、动物地理区和经纬度带中鸟兽物种数都显著相关。保护区尺度鸟兽物种 数的相关系数为0.818和动物地理区中的华北区为0.768,其他所有区域和地理区域的鸟兽物 种数的相关系数都高于0.850。因此,鸟兽物种数的相关关系在一定程度上具有预测价值。我们发现不同区域鸟兽物种数比值无显著性差异;但是,不同区域间鸟兽物种数 比值差异显著。该比值在中国呈中间低四周高的分布趋势,其中东北地区最高。我们还利用历史累积调查数据与非历史累积调查数据进行了鸟兽物种数比值及其相关性分析,发现利用累积数据计算的相关性低于非累积数据计算的相关性,但利用累积数据计算的鸟兽物 种数比值高于非累积数据计算的比值。最后,探讨了为什么鸟类与兽类的物种数目会相关。我们根据物种－面积公式,S=CA^Z,导出了两个生物类群物种丰富度的相关关 系式。利用全国不同区域数据拟合,得到Z₁/Z₂＝0.913,Z₁/Z₂接近于1。于是 ,C₁/C2可视为近似等于R_am。本研究可推广到其他不同生物类群物种。物种数量的相关关系为快速评估区域的物种多样性提供了一条途径。     

Modelling relationships between species spatial abundance patterns and climate

Aim To move towards modelling spatial abundance patterns and to evaluate the relative impacts of climatic change upon species abundances as opposed to range extents. Location Southern Africa, including Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland and Zimbabwe. Methods Quantitative response surface models were fitted for 78 bird species, mostly endemic (68) or near‐endemic to the region, to model relationships between species reporting rates (i.e. the proportion of checklists reporting a species for a particular grid cell), as recorded by the Southern African Bird Atlas Project, and four bioclimatic variables derived from climatic data for the period 1961–90. With caution, reporting rates can be used as a proxy for abundance. Models were used to project potential impacts of a series of projected climatic change scenarios upon species abundance patterns and range extents. Results Most models obtained were robust with good predictive power. Projections of potential future abundance patterns indicate that the magnitude of impacts upon a proxy for abundance are greater than those upon range extent for the majority of species (82% by 2071–2100). For most species (74%) both abundance and range extent are projected to decrease by 2100. Impacts are especially severe if species are unable to realize projected range changes; when only the area of a species' simulated present range is considered, overall abundance decreases of more than 80% are projected for 19 (24%) of species examined. Main conclusions Our results indicate that projected climatic changes are likely to elicit greater relative changes in species abundances than range extents. For most species examined changes were decreases, suggesting the impacts upon biodiversity are likely generally to be negative. These results also suggest that previous estimates of the proportion of species at increased risk of extinction as a result of climatic change may, in some cases, be under‐estimates.     

Climatic constraints on wintering bird distributions are modified by urbanization and weather

1.?Ecologists have long been interested in the role of climate in shaping species' ranges, and in recent years, this relationship has taken on greater significance because of the need for accurate predictions of the effects of climate change on wildlife populations. Bioclimatic relationships, however, are potentially complicated by various environmental factors operating at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Here, we test the hypothesis that climatic constraints on bird distributions are modified by species-specific responses to weather, urbanization and use of supplemental food. 2.?Our analyses focused on 18 bird species with data from over 3000 sites across the north-eastern United States and adjacent Canadian provinces. We use hierarchal occupancy modelling to quantify the effects of short-term weather variation and surrounding urbanization on food stress and probabilities of detection, and how these fine-scale changes modify the role that climate has on the distributions of wintering bird populations at regional scales. 3.?Examining site occupancy and supplemental food use across the study region, we found that average minimum temperature was an important factor limiting bird distributions, supporting the hypothesis that the occupancy of wintering birds is limited by climatic constraints. We found that 15 of 18 species (83%) were more energetically stressed (had a higher likelihood of visiting a feeder station) as minimum temperature declined from the seasonal average. Because we found these patterns in populations that regularly visit supplemental food sites and were likely not food-limited, we suggest that resource availability is less important than climate in constraining wintering bird distributions. Across a winter season, local within-winter extinction probabilities were lower and colonization probabilities higher at warmer sites supporting the role of climate-mediated range shifts. Importantly, however, these relationships were modified by the degree of urbanization and species' abilities to persist in human-modified landscapes. 4.?Our results suggest that urbanization and behavioural adaptation can modify the role of climate on bird ranges and should be included in future analyses of range shifts because of climate change.     

Distributions of forest birds and butterflies in the Andaman islands, Bay of Bengal: nested patterns and processes

The distributional patterns of forest birds and butterflies in the Andaman islands, an oceanic chain located off SE Asia, were tested for nestedness. Both taxa were highly nested. Nestedness could be due to colonization or extinction processes, area or distance effects or nestedness of habitats. Nestedness in forest bird distributions were strongly influenced by area and habitat related factors. Habitats were significantly nested in all three island groups, however most strongly for the North Andamans. However forest bird distributions in the North Andamans, as indicated by row order in the packed matrix, was not correlated with habitat diversity, suggesting that habitat related factors alone cannot account for these patterns. Other causal influences could be passive sampling, where common and abundant species and habitats are more likely to have a widespread distribution than rare species and habitats. The nested subset pattern seen in two unrelated taxa suggests that the Andamans are extinction dominated and that the protection of forests on large islands is critical for the conservation of its biodiversity.     

Re-assessing current extinction rates

There is a widespread belief that we are experiencing a mass extinction event similar in severity to previous mass extinction events in the last 600 million years where up to 95% of species disappeared. This paper reviews evidence for current extinctions and different methods of assessing extinction rates including species–area relationships and loss of tropical forests, changing threat status of species, co-extinction rates and modelling the impact of climate change. For 30 years some have suggested that extinctions through tropical forest loss are occurring at a rate of up to 100 species a day and yet less than 1,200 extinctions have been recorded in the last 400 years. Reasons for low number of identified global extinctions are suggested here and include success in protecting many endangered species, poor monitoring of most of the rest of species and their level of threat, extinction debt where forests have been lost but species still survive, that regrowth forests may be important in retaining ‘old growth’ species, fewer co-extinctions of species than expected, and large differences in the vulnerability of different taxa to extinction threats. More recently, others have suggested similar rates of extinction to earlier estimates but with the key cause of extinction being climate change, and in particular rising temperatures, rather than deforestation alone. Here I suggest that climate change, rather than deforestation is likely to bring about such high levels of extinction since the impacts of climate change are local to global and that climate change is acting synergistically with a range of other threats to biodiversity including deforestation.     

Species‐specific and temporal scale‐dependent responses of birds to drought

Global climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of weather extremes, including severe droughts in many regions. Drought can impact organisms by inhibiting reproduction, reducing survival and abundance, and forcing range shifts. For birds, considering temporal scale by averaging drought‐related variables over different time lengths (i.e., temporal grains) captures different hydrologic attributes which may uniquely influence food supplies, vegetation greenness/structure, and other factors affecting populations. However, studies examining drought impacts on birds often assess a single temporal grain without considering that different species have different life histories that likely determine the temporal grain of their drought response. Furthermore, while drought is known to influence bird abundance and drive between‐year range shifts, less understood is whether it causes within‐range changes in species distributions. Our objectives were to (a) determine which temporal grain of drought (if any) is most related to bird presence/absence and whether this response is species specific; and (b) assess whether drought alters bird distributions by quantifying probability of local colonization and extinction as a function of drought intensity. We used North American Breeding Bird Survey data collected over 16 years, generalized linear mixed models, and dynamic occupancy models to meet these objectives. Different bird species responded to drought at different temporal grains, with most showing the strongest signal at annual or near‐annual grains. For all drought‐responsive species, increased drought intensity at any temporal grain always correlated with decreased occupancy. Additionally, colonization/extinction analyses indicated that one species, the dickcissel (Spiza americana), is more likely to colonize novel areas within the southern/core portion of its range during drought. Considering drought at different temporal grains, along with hydrologic attributes captured by each grain, may better reveal mechanisms behind drought impacts on birds and other organisms, and therefore improve understanding of how global climate change impacts species and the landscapes they inhabit.     

Habitat quality and population density drive occupancy dynamics of snowshoe hare in variegated landscapes

The influence of habitat quality and population density on occupancy dynamics may surpass that of traditional metrics of area and isolation, but often this is not considered explicitly in studies of spatially structured populations. In landscapes that are not easily characterized as binary habitat/non‐habitat (e.g. variegated landscapes), this influence may be even more important and occur at both local and landscape levels. It follows that occupancy dynamics may be driven by disparate processes depending on how extinction or colonization relate to habitat quality and population density. We examined the relative influence of area, structural isolation, habitat quality, local population density, and neighborhood population density (i.e. population density in the landscape around a site) on the probability of extinction and colonization of snowshoe hare Lepus americanus across an expansive forest mosaic landscape (encompassing the northern third of Idaho). Habitat quality and population density were highly influential in determining extinction and colonization, whereas patch area and isolation were much less important. Sites with heavier vegetative cover at the site or landscape‐level were more likely to be colonized and less likely to go extinct, and sites with greater local population density in the previous time step had lower probability of extinction. Sites embedded in high density neighborhoods also were less likely to go extinct, but not more likely to be colonized. We found a significant interaction between local and neighborhood population density on extinction in 1 yr, suggesting that the strength of demographic rescue may vary dependent on local site densities. Our results add to a growing literature showing that factors outside of structural metrics of area and isolation are important drivers of occupancy dynamics. Given the multi‐scaled influence of habitat quality and population density on occupancy dynamics, our work also indicates that research on snowshoe hare must extend beyond simply assessing local factors to understand the spatial dynamics of populations.     

Settling down of seasonal migrants promotes bird diversification

How seasonal migration originated and impacted diversification in birds remains largely unknown. Although migratory behaviour is likely to affect bird diversification, previous studies have not detected any effect. Here, we infer ancestral migratory behaviour and the effect of seasonal migration on speciation and extinction dynamics using a complete bird tree of life. Our analyses infer that sedentary behaviour is ancestral, and that migratory behaviour evolved independently multiple times during the evolutionary history of birds. Speciation of a sedentary species into two sedentary daughter species is more frequent than speciation of a migratory species into two migratory daughter species. However, migratory species often diversify by generating a sedentary daughter species in addition to the ancestral migratory one. This leads to an overall higher migratory speciation rate. Migratory species also experience lower extinction rates. Hence, although migratory species represent a minority (18.5%) of all extant birds, they have a higher net diversification rate than sedentary species. These results suggest that the evolution of seasonal migration in birds has facilitated diversification through the divergence of migratory subpopulations that become sedentary, and illustrate asymmetrical diversification as a mechanism by which diversification rates are decoupled from species richness.     

Elevational gradients in species abundance,assemblage structure and energy use of rainforest birds in the Australian Wet Tropics bioregion

Elevational patterns of species richness, local abundance and assemblage structure of rainforest birds of north‐eastern Australia were explored using data from extensive standardized surveys throughout the region. Eighty‐two species of birds were recorded with strong turnover in assemblage structure across the elevational gradient and high levels of regional endemism in the uplands. Both species richness and bird abundance exhibited a humped‐shaped pattern with elevation with the highest values being between 600 and 800 m elevation. While much of the variability in species richness could be explained by the species–area relationship, analyses of net primary productivity (NPP) and total daily energy consumption of the bird community (energy use) suggest that ecosystem energy flow or constraints may be a significant determinant of species richness. Species richness is positively correlated with local bird abundance which itself is closely related to total energy use of the bird community. We suggest the hypothesis that lower NPP limits bird abundance and energy use in the uplands (>500 m) and that low bird energy use and species richness in the lowlands is limited by a seasonal bottleneck in available primary productivity and/or a species pool previously truncated by an extinction filter imposed by the almost complete disappearance of rainforest in the lowlands during the glacial maxima. We suggest that some of the previously predicted impacts of global warming on biodiversity in the uplands may be partially ameliorated by increases in NPP because of increasing temperatures. However, these relationships are complex and require further data specifically in regard to direct estimates of primary productivity and detailed estimates of energy flow within the assemblage.     

Present day risk of extinction may exacerbate the lower species richness of dioecious clades

Dioecious clades have been observed to have lower species richness than their non‐dioecious sister groups indicating that dioecious species experience higher extinction rates and (or) lower speciation rates. To determine whether current threats to biodiversity may exacerbate this pattern, we examined the threat to exclusively dioecious families of angiosperms among the 13,013 species of threatened plants included in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. When examined phylogenetically, dioecious families had proportionally more species listed than their sister groups. We then examined whether ecological traits correlated with dioecy, namely tropical distribution, woody growth form, and fleshy fruits, are associated with having higher proportions of threatened species. Ignoring breeding system, woody growth form was the only trait that was associated with a greater than expected proportion of threatened species per family. Red‐Listed dioecious families were more likely to have a woody growth form than non‐dioecious families. Woody growth habit is likely contributing to the higher incidence of dioecious species being at risk of extinction but is not solely responsible for the pattern because higher risk within dioecious groups was also apparent in a comparison of exclusively woody sister‐group pairs. Our results indicate that dioecious plants may warrant special attention in conservation practices.     

Small fish, big fish, red fish, blue fish: size-biased extinction risk of the world's freshwater and marine fishes

Aim  In light of the current biodiversity crisis, there is a need to identify and protect species at greatest risk of extinction. Ecological theory and global-scale analyses of bird and mammal faunas suggest that small-bodied species are less vulnerable to extinction, yet this hypothesis remains untested for the largest group of vertebrates, fish. Here, we compare body-size distributions of freshwater and marine fishes under different levels of global extinction risk (i.e. listed as vulnerable, endangered or critically endangered according to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species ) from different major sources of threat (habitat loss/degradation, human harvesting, invasive species and pollution).
Location  Global, freshwater and marine.
Methods  We collated maximum body length data for 22,800 freshwater and marine fishes and compared body-size frequency distributions after controlling for phylogeny.
Results  We found that large-bodied marine fishes are under greater threat of global extinction, whereas both small- and large-bodied freshwater species are more likely to be at risk. Our results support the notion that commercial fishing activities disproportionately threaten large-bodied marine and freshwater species, whereas habitat degradation and loss threaten smaller-bodied marine fishes.
Main conclusions  Our study provides compelling evidence that global fish extinction risk does not universally scale with body size. Given the central role of body size for trophic position and the functioning of food webs, human activities may have strikingly different effects on community organization and food web structure in freshwater and marine systems.     

Understory bird communities in Amazonian rainforest fragments: species turnover through 25 years post-isolation in recovering landscapes

Inferences about species loss following habitat conversion are typically drawn from short-term surveys, which cannot reconstruct long-term temporal dynamics of extinction and colonization. A long-term view can be critical, however, to determine the stability of communities within fragments. Likewise, landscape dynamics must be considered, as second growth structure and overall forest cover contribute to processes in fragments. Here we examine bird communities in 11 Amazonian rainforest fragments of 1-100 ha, beginning before the fragments were isolated in the 1980s, and continuing through 2007. Using a method that accounts for imperfect detection, we estimated extinction and colonization based on standardized mist-net surveys within discreet time intervals (1-2 preisolation samples and 4-5 post-isolation samples). Between preisolation and 2007, all fragments lost species in an area-dependent fashion, with loss of as few as <10% of preisolation species from 100-ha fragments, but up to 70% in 1-ha fragments. Analysis of individual time intervals revealed that the 2007 result was not due to gradual species loss beginning at isolation; both extinction and colonization occurred in every time interval. In the last two samples, 2000 and 2007, extinction and colonization were approximately balanced. Further, 97 of 101 species netted before isolation were detected in at least one fragment in 2007. Although a small subset of species is extremely vulnerable to fragmentation, and predictably goes extinct in fragments, developing second growth in the matrix around fragments encourages recolonization in our landscapes. Species richness in these fragments now reflects local turnover, not long-term attrition of species. We expect that similar processes could be operating in other fragmented systems that show unexpectedly low extinction.