Phytogeographic analysis of taxa endemic to the Yucatán Peninsula using geographic information systems, the domain heuristic method and parsimony analysis of endemicity

Abstract. The distribution of plant taxa endemic to the Yucatán Peninsula was studied using Parsimony Analysis of Endemicity (PAE). The known distribution of 162 endemic plant taxa was plotted and the DOMAIN method together with environmental data were used to model the potential distribution for each taxon. The Peninsula was divided into a grid of quarter‐degree cells for the purpose of identifying distribution patterns. A total of 294 cells were analysed using known collection records and potential distribution of endemic taxa data. Two data matrices were constructed, a matrix of known distribution and a matrix of both the known and potential distribution. The two matrices were included in the PAE to identify areas of endemism. The areas determined with the known distribution were restricted and almost half of them remained unresolved, whereas with the potential distribution, approximately 90% of the cells were assigned to any one of the endemicity areas. Four endemism areas were identified: the Yucatán dry zone, Yucatán, El Petén and Belize. The areas of Yucatán and El Petén could be explained by current and Pleistocene climatic conditions and their congruence with other biological groups. Analysis of the potential distribution identified areas with patterns that share current environmental characteristics and a palaeoclimate history. Potential distribution modelling can eliminate uncertainties in biogeographical analysis caused by lack of data distribution and sample variation and produce information about the relationships between areas and taxa as well as the environmental affinities of taxa.     

松墨天牛的全球潜在分布区分析

松墨天牛MonochamusalternatusHope分布在亚洲东部,是松材线虫Bursaphelenchusxylophilus(SteinerandBuhrer)在亚洲最有效的昆虫媒介,同时也是重要的蛀干害虫。利用CLIMEX模型分析松墨天牛分布区的气候限制因子,并在全球范围预测它的潜在分布区。模型分析结果表明,温度和降水是松墨天牛分布区的主要气候限制因子。温度在30°N以北地区和30°S以南地区主要表现为冷胁迫,在非洲中部、南亚和澳大利亚北部表现为热胁迫。有效积温不足可能是限制松墨天牛向北扩散的主要原因。降水在中国西北地区、非洲中北部、澳大利亚中部和西部与美国西部主要表现为干胁迫。降水量对分布区范围影响不大。预测结果表明,松墨天牛的全球潜在分布区远远大于实际分布范围。松墨天牛在东半球的潜在分布区包括亚洲东部和南部地区、地中海沿岸、非洲的中部和南部以及澳大利亚的东部和南部,在亚洲热带的潜在分布区1年3代,地中海地区1年1代,非洲1年2～3代,在澳大利亚主要1年1代。松墨天牛在西半球的潜在分布区主要集中在美国南部和东部沿海地区,中美洲以及南美洲的广大地区,美国主要1年1代,中美洲1年2～3代,南美洲主要1年2代。     

Urbanization and Mismatch with Protected Areas Place the Conservation of a Threatened Species at Risk

In this work, we report the predicted distribution of the threatened fluminense swallowtail butterfly, Parides ascanius (Cramer 1775), and correlate it to the presence of urban and protected areas within its range. The distribution was modeled using a genetic algorithm. The predicted distribution of the fluminense swallowtail shows high agreement within Rio de Janeiro state, in a near-continuous strip of 2,038,253 ha along the coastal lowlands, 17.8 percent of which is within urban areas. Only 8.7 percent (178,187 ha) of the remaining (nonurban) predicted model overlapped at least partially with protected areas (19 in all). Almost half of these protected areas also overlapped with urban areas, resulting in an additional loss of 58,751 ha. In seven of 19 protected areas, the distribution of P. ascanius was predicted by less than 50 percent of the models; five of the remaining protected areas are less restrictive reserves. Despite the wide distribution predicted by the models, only two of the observed occurrence points matched the predicted distribution within protected areas. Modeling threatened species distribution is a useful tool for highlighting gaps in networks of protected areas and should aid in planning to fill these gaps. However, in several developing countries with high biodiversity, there is insufficient basic biological information for many threatened species. In these cases, prospecting field studies are urgently needed.     

全球变化格局下重要传粉昆虫大蜜蜂的潜在适生区变化

【目的】当前全球气候变化、土地利用改变、人类活动加剧等正威胁着传粉昆虫的多样性及分布;蜜蜂是生态系统中重要的传粉昆虫类群,对气候、环境变化响应敏感。本研究以重要的传粉昆虫大蜜蜂Apis dorsata为对象,探讨全球变化格局下其潜在适生区变化以及影响其分布的关键因子。【方法】通过文献、馆藏和野外调查系统收集了全球范围内大蜜蜂的物种分布数据,使用13个环境变量通过MaxEnt模型模拟了大蜜蜂当前的潜在适生区;使用9个气候变量并结合公共地球系统模型(CCSM4)模拟了大蜜蜂过去、当前和未来的潜在适生区。【结果】AUC比率显示MaxEnt模型对大蜜蜂的潜在适生区模拟具有较高的准确性,模拟结果表明大蜜蜂的中高潜在适生区主要分布在南亚和东南亚湿润的热带雨林、热带季节性雨林和低地雨林。人类影响、温度季节性变化、等温性、最冷季均温和海拔是影响大蜜蜂潜在适生区的5个最主要因子;在人类影响下大蜜蜂的潜在适生区向山区和连片的湿润常绿森林区收缩,中高潜在适生区显著减少且呈破碎化趋势。基于9个气候变量和CCSM4气候模型对过去、当前和未来的模拟结果显示：在过去的末次冰盛期,东南亚地区可能是大蜜蜂的避难所;在未来,广布于热带地区的大蜜蜂适生区与当前的相近,且部分地区适生指数升高。【结论】基于气候的模拟结果显示大蜜蜂能积极应对未来气候变暖,但随人类活动的加剧及全球气候变化,大蜜蜂仍然面临较大的威胁,需要加强其在南亚和东南亚的中高潜在适生区的重视和保护。     

气候变化下千金榆在我国潜在分布区预测

气候变化严重影响植物的地理分布格局,植物分布对气候变化响应的区域差异性也将为引种和保存提供重要的指导.本研究基于ArcGIS与MaxEnt模型,利用176个千金榆地理信息和13个气候变量,对当前和未来的生态位进行重建.结果表明:模型模拟当代潜在分布区可信度极高,测试集与训练集AUC值分别为0.973和0.957.主要核心适宜区集中在秦岭、长白山及其各自的邻近区域,其他为零星的“岛屿”式分布.贵州、江西、云南、福建等地未发现千金榆的分布,但存在一定的适宜分布区.随着未来气候变暖,千金榆生态适宜区明显增加,主要表现为“向高海拔地区收缩”、“北扩”和“东扩”.但核心适宜区略有减少,具体表现为“南缩”、“中稳”和“北扩”.千金榆的分布对气候变暖的响应存在明显的区域性,在东部江苏、安徽等地,因其独特的地理位置与气候环境,该地区开始成为千金榆生态适宜区;在较低纬度的南方,原有的低海拔地区可能不再适宜千金榆生存;中部秦岭地区气候为南北的渐变区,有较强的缓冲能力,气候变暖对其分布区影响不大;较高纬度的长白山地区及其邻近区域愈发适宜千金榆生存.     

红松存在/不存在数据的多尺度空间分布格局

红松属小兴安岭地区地带性植被优势种,该地区也是其分布的北缘。在景观尺度上开展红松的分布格局研究有利于进一步了解红松分布机理、未来迁移过程等问题,对其经营和保护有重要意义。将景观指数法与点格局分析法结合,设定8个空间尺度,利用红松存在/不存在数据,通过计算各空间尺度上红松聚集程度和景观指数,分析小兴安岭地区红松种群在多尺度上的分布格局。研究结果表明,小尺度上红松聚集分布明显,随机分布区多处于其聚集分布区的边缘,均匀分布区则散布在其聚集分布区内。景观指数研究表明,通过景观指数可判断红松聚集分布格局趋势,而不能判断均匀分布、随机分布格局趋势,因为它们在多尺度下景观指数波动大,不能用景观指数来描述分布格局。研究得出如下结论:1)红松主要分布在其分布区的核心区域内,在分布区边缘和过渡带上呈随机分布,2)存在/不存在数据能够用来分析种群的多尺度空间分布格局,3)空间尺度的变化会引起树种分布格局的变化,随机分布随尺度增加,边缘化程度加强,4)单一尺度上,景观格局指数不能完全描述种群分布格局;而在多尺度上,变化趋势稳定的景观指数表明聚集分布存在,而波动剧烈的景观指数常与随机分布和均匀分布联系在一起,5)地形因子中,红松对坡度和海拔两个因子变化敏感。     

利用CLIMEX预测纳塔尔实蝇在中国的潜在地理分布

纳塔尔实蝇Ceratitis rosa Karsch属双翅目实蝇科腊实蝇属,为害30余种经济植物,被我国列为进境植物检疫性有害生物。本研究运用CLIMEX 3.0及ArcGIS 9.3对纳塔尔实蝇在我国目前及未来的潜在地理分布进行了预测。结果显示：在目前的气候条件下,纳塔尔实蝇在我国的潜在地理分布区为18.250°N-30.250°N,其中,华南和东南地区为高度潜在地理分布区,包括四川、重庆、云南、福建、广东、广西、海南以及台湾等地。在未来的气候条件下,2020和2050年潜在地理分布区的北界分别移至31.250°N和32.250°N,且中度潜在地理分布区北移明显;2100年潜在地理分布区的北界移至33.750°N,且高度适生区北移明显。因此建议目前应加强纳塔尔实蝇检疫措施,完善监测体系,监测网点主要设在我国的南方地区,尤其应对云南、广西、广东、福建和海南等地进行长期监测;同时,应对湖南、贵州、江西、湖北、江苏、安徽等省进行定期监测,严防该虫入侵。     

中国有尾两栖类地理分布格局与扩散路线

通过绘制我国有尾两栖类的地理分布图,分析该类群的地理分布格局与可能的起源和扩散路线。研究结果表明,有尾两栖类在我国的地理分布格局,有三个关键区域:1.位于长江上游的、有尾两栖类物种丰富度最高的横断山区,是有尾两栖类的分布中心,该区域很可能亦为有尾两栖类的起源中心及主要特化中心;2.三个次级分布与特化中心,大别山-淮河流域区、南岭-珠江流域区、浙闽山地-江南水乡区;3.四个小型的三级分布与特化中心,台琼海岛区、东北长白山-三江流域区、秦巴山地-汉江渭河流域区、天山-伊犁河流域区。另外,该类群可能的迁移和扩散路线可归纳为:沿着各水系,从分布中心分别向东西南北四个方向迁移和扩散,其中以向北和向东为主,向南和向西扩散的种类较少。向北扩散的主要是小鲵科(Hynobiidae)的一些种类,向东扩散的种类则以蝾螈科(Salamandridae)物种为主。广布于我国东部的隐鳃鲵科(Cryptobranchidae)种类,极可能是该类群向北和向东这两个方向扩散的结果。研究结果表明,东亚两栖动物区系具有明显的整体性,即东亚两栖动物区系是单源的、本地起源的。本项研究结果支持中国日本界假说。     

黄耆属簇毛黄耆亚属生物地理学研究

簇毛黄耆亚属的种类主要沿亚洲的“山链”分布,即横断山,喜马拉雅,查谟和克什米尔,帕米尔—阿赖,兴都库什和苏莱曼山脉,表达了东亚、西亚和中亚的植物区系地理关系。本文基于亚属的分布式样,对其8个分布区进行了分析生物地理学中的成分分析。结果表明,这8个分布区可划分为4类,即1)华北—东北;2)横断山和西藏;3)西喜马拉雅,西巴基斯坦,塔吉克斯坦;4)内蒙古—新疆。在本亚属的分布式样中,有两个地理“结点”,即横断山和西喜马拉雅,后者主要指克什米尔。推断地理上的衍进方向是由东向西发展,喜马拉雅是连接东西分布的通道。     

中国特有种天山猪毛菜的地理分布及潜在分布区预测

基于野外调查的居群分布信息和20个环境变量(包括海拔及19个气候变量),采用最大熵模型( MaxEnt)和地理信息系统( ArcGIS)对中国特有种天山猪毛菜( Salsola junatovii Botsch.)的潜在分布区进行预测;并采用受试者工作特征曲线( ROC)和刀切法( jackknife test)分别检验MaxEnt模型的精度和评估各环境变量在决定潜在分布区时的贡献量。结果显示：天山猪毛菜主要分布在中国新疆南部的12个县(包括托克逊县、和硕县、和静县、焉耆县、拜城县、库车县、温宿县、乌什县、阿合奇县、阿图什县、乌恰县和阿克陶县),但在相关文献记载的曾有分布的阿克苏市、柯坪县和喀什市则本调查中没有发现。通过MaxEnt模型预测,天山猪毛菜的潜在适生区主要集中在新疆南部(包括天山南坡和塔里木盆地西南缘)以及甘肃的西部和东部等,新疆西部地区有零星分布;在调查的15个居群中,除居群14(位于乌恰县西部)外,其他14个居群均位于潜在适生区内,其中的7个居群位于非常适宜的潜在适生区内,表明利用MaxEnt模型预测天山猪毛菜的潜在适生区效果较好。在20个环境变量中,对预测结果贡献量位居前3位的环境变量为最冷季度平均温度、最冷月最低温和最干季度平均温度,表明该种的分布与低温相关。此外,对天山猪毛菜潜在适生区与实际分布区差异的成因进行了分析。     

气候变化下青藏高原两种云杉植物的潜在适生区预测

为了预测未来气候变化下云杉属植物的适宜生境,选择青藏高原暗针叶林的两种重要建群植物丽江云杉（Picea likiangensis）和紫果云杉（Picea purpurea）作为研究对象,采用MaxEnt模型预测21世纪50年代（2050s）和70年代（2070s）两物种在未来气候情景下的潜在分布,并结合ArcGIS计算物种分布面积和空间格局变化。结果表明：（1）丽江云杉的潜在适宜分布区主要集中在四川西南部和西藏东部。紫果云杉潜在适宜分布区主要集中在四川西北部、甘肃南部、青海东南部,以及西藏东部地区。（2）在未来两个时期丽江云杉的分布面积总体呈增加趋势,紫果云杉呈先增加后减少的趋势,但与其现代分布面积相比,两种云杉的总适生区面积都有不同程度的增加。（3）丽江云杉适宜生境未来可能会向北迁移,而紫果云杉可能会向西迁移。（4）影响丽江云杉和紫果云杉潜在地理分布的主要气候因子为最暖季降水量和最暖季均温。研究结果可为丽江云杉和紫果云杉在未来气候变化情景下的可持续管理提供一定的理论依据和参考价值。     

Diversity and distribution of aquatic insects in Southern Brazil wetlands: implications for biodiversity conservation in a Neotropical region

The selection of priority areas is an enormous challenge for biodiversity conservation. Some biogeographic methods have been used to identify the priority areas to conservation, and panbiogeography is one of them. This study aimed at the utilization of panbiogeographic tools, to identify the distribution patterns of aquatic insect genera, in wetland systems of an extensive area in the Neotropical region (approximately 280 000km2), and to compare the distribution of the biogeographic units identified by the aquatic insects, with the conservation units of Southern Brazil. We analyzed the distribution pattern of 82 genera distributed in four orders of aquatic insects (Diptera, Odonata, Ephemeroptera and Trichoptera) in Southern Brazil wetlands. Therefore, 32 biogeographic nodes corresponded to the priority areas for conservation of the aquatic insect diversity. Among this total, 13 were located in the Atlantic Rainforest, 16 in the Pampa and three amongst both biomes. The distribution of nodes showed that only 15% of the dispersion centers of insects were inserted in conservation units. The four priority areas pointed by node cluster criterion must be considered in further inclusions of areas for biodiversity conservation in Southern Brazil wetlands, since such areas present species from different ancestral biota. The inclusion of such areas into the conservation units would be a strong way to conserve the aquatic biodiversity in this region.     

近50年陕西凤县林麝分布区的变迁

于2005年夏季和2006年春季,采用问卷调查结合野外实地验证,对陕西风县林麝(Moschus berezovskii)的现时及历史分布进行了分析,并将所得分布信息叠加至数字化地图,绘制成林麝近50年的分布区变迁图.结果表明:历史上,凤县是秦巴山区林麝的主要分布区之一,从20世纪80年代初开始,该县林麝数量大幅下降,至今分布区已严重萎缩并破碎化,总分布面积减少至50年前的1/3;目前林麝分布区主要在相对偏远、人为干扰较少的乡与乡的交界和县的边缘地区,分布区被人类聚居地及主要公路所隔离.造成这种现状的主要原因是过度捕杀、森林减少及道路建设.     

Insular and disjunct distribution of the Arctic wolf in Greenland, 1978�C1998

Little research has been conducted on the spatial and temporal distribution of wolves in the High Arctic, and the processes that influence distributional patterns are not well understood. The present study addressed this information void in north and east Greenland by determining bi-seasonal distribution patterns and core areas based upon 303 sightings of wolves or their tracks during 1978–1998. The data suggested that this wolf population were predominantly distributed in semi-isolated patches in an insular and disjunct distribution. Evidence of wolf occurrence in some areas was so irregular that wolves should be considered absent in most years. Where such areas were clustered over several hundreds of kilometers, they collectively constituted areas of general wolf absence that could be considered gaps in distribution. There was no evidence that this population functioned in a mosaic of closely, interlocking pack territories similar to those reported in lower latitudes. The observed distributional pattern likely reflected the exceptionally impoverished and fragmented polar desert and semi-desert habitat that compelled wolves to adopt differing spatial distribution patterns relative to wolves in temperate areas. The broader scientific significance of this study is that, even in the most remote, vast, and uninhabited regions, it is possible to produce meaningful results on distributional patterns of rare, terrestrial carnivores that can serve as foundation for the next generation of testable hypotheses.     

Predicting potential distribution of poorly known species with small database: the case of four‐horned antelope Tetracerus quadricornis on the Indian subcontinent

Information gaps on the distribution of data deficient and rare species such as four‐horned antelope (FHA) in Nepal may impair their conservation. We aimed to empirically predict the distribution of FHA in Nepal with the help of data from the Indian subcontinent. Additionally, we wanted to identify core areas and gaps within the reported range limits and to assess the degree of isolation of known Nepalese populations from the main distribution areas in India. The tropical part of the Indian subcontinent (65°–90° eastern longitude, 5°–30° northern latitude), that is, the areas south of the Himalayan Mountains. Using MaxEnt and accounting for sampling bias, we developed predictive distribution models from environmental and topographical variables, and known presence locations of the study species in India and Nepal. We address and discuss the use of target group vs. random background. The prediction map reveals a disjunct distribution of FHA with core areas in the tropical parts of central to southern–western India. At the scale of the Indian subcontinent, suitable FHA habitat area in Nepal was small. The Indo‐Gangetic Plain isolates Nepalese from the Indian FHA populations, but the distribution area extends further south than proposed by the current IUCN map. A low to intermediate temperature seasonality as well as low precipitation during the dry and warm season contributed most to the prediction of FHA distribution. The predicted distribution maps confirm other FHA range maps but also indicate that suitable areas exist south of the known range. Results further highlight that small populations in the Nepalese Terai Arc are isolated from the Indian core distribution and therefore might be under high extinction risk.     

气候变化对柴胡与狭叶柴胡适生分布的影响

研究气候变化下物种适生区的分布格局与变迁,对于物种的保护和资源的可持续利用具有重要的理论和实践意义。选取柴胡(Bupleurum chinense)与狭叶柴胡(Bupleurum scorzonerifolium)在中国地域内的381个有效分布点和36个环境因子,利用MaxEnt模型模拟当前以及未来(2050和2070年)两种气候情景下(RCP4.5和RCP8.5)其适生区的分布格局,并分析了制约其适生区分布的主导环境因子。结果表明：(1)影响柴胡适生区分布的主导环境因子为最湿月份降水量、最干季度平均温度以及海拔。影响狭叶柴胡适生区分布的主导环境因子为最湿月份降水量、温度季节性变化标准差以及海拔;(2)当前气候条件下,柴胡适生区总面积为1.4755×10⁶km²,约占我国国土面积的15.37%,中、高度适生区主要分布在陕西南部、山西东部、甘肃东南部、山东中部、河北中西部等地;狭叶柴胡适生区总面积为1.8034×10⁶km²,约占我国国土面积的18.78%,中、高度适生区主要分布在黑龙江西部和东部、内...     

基于地形梯度的甘肃白龙江流域典型生态系统服务分布特征

白龙江流域是长江上游重要的水源涵养区和生态屏障,同时也是国家级贫困县集中连片区(秦巴山区)。基于ArcGIS软件和InVEST模型,从高程、坡度、地形起伏度、地形位指数等方面分析了甘肃白龙江流域典型生态系统服务的地形梯度特征。结果表明:(1)甘肃白龙江流域碳储量、水源涵养、生境质量、土壤保持服务功能的空间分异明显,其高值区主要分布在自然保护区、林区,低值区则在河谷、城镇、农耕地区。(2)碳储量、水源涵养和生境质量随着坡度和地形起伏度的增加而增加,土壤保持则呈先增加后降低的趋势,随地形位指数增加呈现波动变化;(3)流域综合生态系统服务供给重要区域逐渐向两极分化,多种生态系统供给服务的重要区域主要在中高梯度片区,而一般区主要分布在低梯度片。地形特征是影响流域生态系统服务梯度差异的重要因素。通过分析流域不同地形因子下分析碳储量、水源涵养、生境质量、土壤保持的空间分异特征,可为中国西部山地流域生态系统格局优化管控和生态文明建设提供科学依据。     

Understanding the Impacts of Land-Use Policies on a Threatened Species: Is There a Future for the Bornean Orang-utan?

The geographic distribution of Bornean orang-utans and its overlap with existing land-use categories (protected areas, logging and plantation concessions) is a necessary foundation to prioritize conservation planning. Based on an extensive orang-utan survey dataset and a number of environmental variables, we modelled an orang-utan distribution map. The modelled orang-utan distribution map covers 155,106 km² (21% of Borneo''s landmass) and reveals four distinct distribution areas. The most important environmental predictors are annual rainfall and land cover. The overlap of the orang-utan distribution with land-use categories reveals that only 22% of the distribution lies in protected areas, but that 29% lies in natural forest concessions. A further 19% and 6% occurs in largely undeveloped oil palm and tree plantation concessions, respectively. The remaining 24% of the orang-utan distribution range occurs outside of protected areas and outside of concessions. An estimated 49% of the orang-utan distribution will be lost if all forest outside of protected areas and logging concessions is lost. To avoid this potential decline plantation development in orang-utan habitats must be halted because it infringes on national laws of species protection. Further growth of the plantation sector should be achieved through increasing yields in existing plantations and expansion of new plantations into areas that have already been deforested. To reach this goal a large scale island-wide land-use masterplan is needed that clarifies which possible land uses and managements are allowed in the landscape and provides new standardized strategic conservation policies. Such a process should make much better use of non-market values of ecosystem services of forests such as water provision, flood control, carbon sequestration, and sources of livelihood for rural communities. Presently land use planning is more driven by vested interests and direct and immediate economic gains, rather than by approaches that take into consideration social equity and environmental sustainability.     

影响入侵种反枝苋分布的环境因子分析及可能分布区预测

反枝苋(Amaranthus retroflexus)是苋属入侵种中发生频率最多、分布最广、危害最严重的杂草。基于反枝苋在世界范围内4 207个实际分布点及其对应的气候、地形和土壤3类要素28个环境因子的定量关系,利用主成分分析确定了影响其分布的主要环境因子,据此估测其中心可能分布区和最大可能分布区,并与实际分布点进行比较。结果表明:14个环境因子在决定反枝苋全球分布格局中起着重要作用。反枝苋中心分布区位于新西兰南部、澳大利亚东南部、南美洲北部少数地区、北美洲西北部及东南部部分地区、欧洲大部分地区和中国东南部,最大可能分布区位于南美洲中南部、北美洲大部分、非洲北部小部分、澳大利亚南部及北部少数区域、欧洲大部分地区和亚洲大部分地区及中国除西藏、青海、新疆、四川西部以外的地区。中心分布区的预测结果与实际分布点吻合较好,而最大分布区则过于广阔。     

气候变化条件下山西翅果油树适宜分布区的空间迁移预测

气候变化对生物多样性的影响及其适应性直接关系着生物多样性保护的成效,预测未来气候变化条件下受威胁物种适宜生境的空间变化趋势对生物多样性保护具有重要的理论和实践意义.本文选取我国特有濒危植物翅果油树为研究对象,在区域尺度上预测气候变化条件下的物种适宜分布区,进而通过空间分析模拟不同气候变化情景下其适宜分布区的空间变化和迁移趋势.最大熵(Maxent)物种分布模型预测结果显示: 翅果油树的两个适宜分布区在未来气候变化情景下呈现不同的迁移趋势,吕梁山适生区呈现出纬度方向上的轻微波动,而中条山适生区则呈现出向高海拔地区迁移的趋势.适生区空间格局变化分析表明,翅果油树当前适生区的边界存在明显变化区域,包括新增适生区(零星分布在两个适生区的边缘地带,新增率为9.1%～20.9%)和丧失适生区(集中分布在吕梁山适生区北缘和中条山适生区东南部,丧失率为16.4%～31.2%),且两者对气候变化的响应较为敏感.利用分类统计工具Zonal计算得出,在未来气候变化条件下吕梁山适生区的中心点呈现向南迁移的趋势,最大迁移距离为7.451 km;中条山适生区的中心点则呈现出向西北迁移的趋势,最大迁移距离为8.284 km.表明山西翅果油树的分布对气候变化的响应较为剧烈.