Avoid nest predation when predation rates are low,and other lessons: testing the tropical–temperate nest predation paradigm

Nest predation is the most important cause of nest failure in most birds and latitudinal differences in nest predation rates and life histories suggest that nest predation has been influential in life history evolution. All else equal, natural selection should favor reduction of nest predation, yet evidence is equivocal. We used Monte Carlo simulations to examine the combined effects of variation in nest predation rates, breeding season length and renesting intervals on the annual number of young fledged. Simulations suggest that selection most strongly favors a reduction in nest predation when breeding seasons are short and predation rates are low (temperate characteristics). Conversely, selection favors shorter renesting intervals when breeding seasons are long and nest predation rates are high (tropical characteristics). Reducing already low rates provides a proportionately greater increase in annual nesting success than does the same reduction when nest predation rates are higher. In some tropical species, individuals increase reproductive success not by avoiding predation in subsequent nesting attempts, which is largely beyond their control, but rather by reducing renesting intervals. We suggest that the emphasis on nest predation avoidance has biased our perspectives for alternative hypotheses of how birds should respond to nest predation and the consequences of those alternatives for life history theory. Similarly to the need to control for phylogenetics in examining life history strategies, future studies must also control for differences in breeding season lengths and renesting intervals to better understand the influence of nest predation on avian life histories.     

Within‐season increase in parental investment in a long‐lived bird species: investment shifts to maximize successful reproduction?

In nest‐building species predation of nest contents is a main cause of reproductive failure and parents have to trade off reproductive investment against antipredatory behaviours. While this trade‐off is modified by lifespan (short‐lived species prioritize current reproduction; long‐lived species prioritize future reproduction), it may vary within a breeding season, but this idea has only been tested in short‐lived species. Yet, life history theory does not make any prediction how long‐lived species should trade off current against future reproductive investment within a season. Here, we investigated this trade‐off through predator‐exposure experiments in a long‐lived bird species, the brown thornbill. We exposed breeding pairs that had no prior within‐season reproductive success to the models of a nest predator and a predator of adults during their first or second breeding attempt. Overall, parents reduced their feeding rate in the presence of a predator, but parents feeding second broods were more risk sensitive and almost ceased feeding when exposed to both types of predators. However, during second breeding attempts, parents had larger clutches and a higher feeding rate in the absence of predators than during first breeding attempts and approached both types of predators closer when mobbing. Our results suggest that the trade‐off between reproductive investment and risk‐taking can change in a long‐lived species within a breeding season depending on both prior nest predation and renesting opportunities. These patterns correspond to those in short‐lived species, raising the question of whether a within‐season shift in reproductive investment trade‐offs is independent of lifespan.     

Nesting in an uncertain world: information and sampling the future

Seasonal fecundity is strongly influenced by the number of nests attempted (including renests following nest failure) in a season. This number is often assumed to be set by the length of the breeding season or through some predetermined maximum. Instead, the decision to renest likely results from a cost–benefit analysis honed by natural selection where the ultimate components of fitness, i.e. reproduction and survival, tradeoff with one another. Moreover, reproductive decision making should not occur in an information‐vacuum. In a world where habitat quality (i.e. likelihood of nest success) is uncertain females should use nest failures to update the probability their renest nest will succeed, and this estimate in turn can affect the decision to renest. We develop a model of renesting behavior based on these conceptual ideas using the framework of statistical decision theory (SDT) and the process of Bayesian updating. We assume that renesting incurs 1) a cost to future reproductive success and 2) a reduction in expected reproductive success for each successive replacement nest. We show, all else equal, birds should curtail renesting with (1) increased residual reproductive success, (2) increased cost to future reproduction, (3) declines in current reproduction with successive attempts, and (4) increasing nest predation rates. We also explore several ecological implications of the model. First, uncertainty in habitat quality and the process of information updating, based on nest outcomes, link changes in the quality or proportion of one habitat type to the behavior in the other habitat. Second, females may use their estimate of habitat quality, based on a sample of nesting attempts, to decide whether to return or disperse to a new site between years. We compare this to the win‐stay: lose‐switch rule for dispersal and discuss the implications for population dynamics.     

Nest defence in the meadow pipit <Emphasis Type="Italic">Anthus pratensis</Emphasis>: the influence of renesting potential

The reproductive value hypothesis predicts that the level of nest defence is determined by the expected chance of offspring to survive until reproduction, and by the reproductive potential of the parents. Rates of survival from one breeding season to the next are low in small passerines, and their residual reproductive potential strongly declines as the current breeding season terminates. Therefore, we can expect that parents which have only one breeding attempt per season should defend their nests more intensively than parents with a possibility to renest. We studied nest defence in populations of meadow pipit (Anthus pratensis) breeding in Norway and the Czech Republic, differing in renesting potential. To simulate the threat from a predator, we placed a stuffed stoat (Mustela erminea) first 5 m and then 1 m away from a nest with nestlings. Parents increased or kept nest defence constant when the stoat approached their nests in Norway and, during a breeding season shortened by severe weather, in the Czech Republic (when renesting potential was limited). Parents decreased nest defence when the stoat approached the nest during “normal” breeding seasons in the Czech Republic (when renesting was common). These findings give support to the reproductive value hypothesis.     

Grazed wet meadows are sink habitats for the southern dunlin (Calidris alpina schinzii) due to nest trampling by cattle

The effect of habitat management is commonly evaluated by measuring population growth, which does not distinguish changes in reproductive success from changes in survival or the effects of immigration or emigration. Management has rarely been evaluated considering complete life cycle of the target organisms, including also possible negative impacts from management. We evaluated the effectiveness of cattle grazing in the restoration of coastal meadows as a breeding habitat for small and medium‐sized ground‐nesting birds by examining the size and demography of a southern dunlin (Calidris alpina schinzii) breeding population. Using a stochastic renesting model that includes within‐season variation in breeding parameters, we evaluated the effect of grazing time and stocking rates on reproduction. The census data indicated that the population was stable when nest trampling was prevented, but detailed demographic models showed that the population on managed meadows was a sink that persisted by attracting immigrants. Even small reductions in reproductive success caused by trampling were detrimental to long‐term viability. We suggest that the best management strategy is to postpone grazing to after the 19th of June, which is about three weeks later than what is optimal from the farmer's point of view. The differing results from the two evaluation approaches warn against planning and evaluating management only based on census population size and highlight the need to consider target‐specific life history characteristics and demography. Even though grazing management is crucial for creating and maintaining suitable habitats, we found that it was insufficient in maintaining a viable population without additional measures that increase nest success. In the presently studied case and in populations with similar breeding cycles, impacts from nest trampling can be avoided by starting grazing when about 70% of the breeding season has past.     

Why do earlier‐arriving migratory birds have better breeding success?

In migratory birds, early arrival on breeding sites is typically associated with greater breeding success, but the mechanisms driving these benefits are rarely known. One mechanism through which greater breeding success among early arrivers can potentially be achieved is the increased time available for replacement clutches following nest loss. However, the contribution of replacement clutches to breeding success will depend on seasonal variation in nest survival rates, and the consequences for juvenile recruitment of hatching at different times in the season. In particular, lower recruitment rates of late‐hatched chicks could offset the benefits to early arrivers of being able to lay replacement clutches, which would reduce the likelihood of replacement clutch opportunities influencing selection on migratory timings. Using a simulation model of time‐constrained capacity for replacement clutches, paramaterized with empirically‐derived estimates from avian migratory systems, we show that greater reproductive success among early‐arriving individuals can arise solely through the greater time capacity for replacement clutches among early arrivers, even when later renesting attempts contribute fewer recruits to the population. However, these relationships vary depending on the seasonal pattern of nest survival. The benefits of early arrival are greatest when nest survival rates are constant or decline seasonally, and early arrival is least beneficial when nest success rates increase over the breeding season, although replacement clutches can mitigate this effect. The time benefits of early arrival facilitating replacement clutches following nest loss may therefore be an important but overlooked source of selection on migratory timings. Empirical measures of seasonal variation in nest survival, renesting, and juvenile recruitment rates are therefore needed in order to identify the costs and benefits associated with individual migration phenology, the selection pressures influencing migratory timings, and the implications for ongoing shifts in migration and breeding phenology.     

Nesting Success in Crimson Finches: Chance or Choice?

In avian systems, nest predation is one of the most significant influences on reproductive success. Selection for mechanisms and behaviours to minimise predation rates should be favoured. To avoid predation, breeding birds can often deter predators through active nest defence or by modifying behaviours around the nest (e.g. reducing feeding rates and vocalisations). Birds might also benefit from concealing nests or placing them in inaccessible locations. The relative importance of these strategies (behaviour vs. site selection) can be difficult to disentangle and may differ according to life history. Tropical birds are thought to experience higher rates of predation than temperate birds and invest less energy in nest defence. We monitored a population of crimson finches (Neochmia phaeton), in the Australian tropics, over two breeding seasons. We found no relationship between adult nest defence behaviour (towards a model reptile predator) and the likelihood of nest success. However, nest success was strongly related to the visibility of the nest and the structure of the vegetation. We found no evidence that adult nest building decisions were influenced by predation risk; individuals that re‐nested after a predation event did not build their nest in a more concealed location. Therefore, predator avoidance, and hence nest success, appears to be largely due to chance rather than due to the behaviour of the birds or their choice of nesting sites. To escape high predation pressures, multiple nesting attempts both within and between seasons may be necessary to increase reproductive success. Alternatively, birds may be limited in their nest‐site options; that is, high‐quality individuals dominate quality nest sites.     

Breeding Phenology of Birds: Mechanisms Underlying Seasonal Declines in the Risk of Nest Predation

Seasonal declines in avian clutch size are well documented, but seasonal variation in other reproductive parameters has received less attention. For example, the probability of complete brood mortality typically explains much of the variation in reproductive success and often varies seasonally, but we know little about the underlying cause of that variation. This oversight is surprising given that nest predation influences many other life-history traits and varies throughout the breeding season in many songbirds. To determine the underlying causes of observed seasonal decreases in risk of nest predation, we modeled nest predation of Dusky Flycatchers (Empidonax oberholseri) in northern California as a function of foliage phenology, energetic demand, developmental stage, conspecific nest density, food availability for nest predators, and nest predator abundance. Seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was not associated with seasonal changes in energetic demand, conspecific nest density, or predator abundance. Instead, seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was associated with foliage density (early, but not late, in the breeding season) and seasonal changes in food available to nest predators. Supplemental food provided to nest predators resulted in a numerical response by nest predators, increasing the risk of nest predation at nests that were near supplemental feeders. Our results suggest that seasonal changes in foliage density and factors associated with changes in food availability for nest predators are important drivers of temporal patterns in risk of avian nest predation.     

Dynamics of an immune response in house sparrows Passer domesticus in relation to time of day, body condition and blood parasite infection

European starlings ( Sturnus vulgaris ) introduced to North America compete with native cavity-nesting birds for nest sites. I examined whether natural selection could favour a strategy of delayed nesting in a population of northern flickers ( Colaptes auratus ), a native woodpecker, to reduce overlap in breeding phenology with starling competitors. I developed a mathematical model based on reproductive parameters for a population of flickers from central British Columbia, Canada. On average, 7% of flicker nests each year were usurped by starlings; daily probabilities of takeover declined through the season but were relatively low (1–2%). Flickers laid between 3 and 13 eggs and there was a negative correlation between clutch size and date. The probability of renesting after nest failure also declined during the season, but renesting intervals (2–19 days) were not associated with female age, or stage of nest loss. The model suggested that costs of delaying reproduction would outweigh benefits of an early start except when the probability of nest usurpation is very high (>75%) early in the season and declines rapidly through the summer. Thus, early laying dates should be favoured especially in northern latitudes where breeding seasons are short.     

Polygyny in the tree swallow Tachycineta bicolor: a result of the cost of searching for an unmated male

The costs imposed by parental care duties on an individual's future survival and reproduction generate conflicts because parents should attempt to minimize their investment in the present brood, and exploit the parental care of the other parent. This conflict is likely to contribute to cases of both polygamy and desertion. Here, we study the costs of polygyny in the tree swallow Tachycineta bicolor , using observations on 52 nests that were attended by polygynous males over 14 y. Both females mated to polygynous males paid reproductive costs at several stages of the nesting cycle. Clutches laid by social mates of polygynous versus monogamous males did not differ in size. However, initial brood sizes for polygynously mated females were lower because a higher proportion of their eggs failed to hatch. Likewise, fledging success was lower and nest predation rates were higher, perhaps reflecting the direct or indirect effects of reduced male attention. These results demonstrate that females pay a productivity cost when breeding with reduced male parental care. In contrast, polygynous males fledge on average more young than monogamous ones and clearly benefit from the association. We suggest that a mate-search cost is leading to the few cases of polygamous males: although females are likely evaluating males for their prospective dedication to the breeding attempt, in a short-lived bird with a short breeding season, the cost to females of searching for a more dedicated male is the risk of not breeding at all.     

Nest predation and trampling as management risks in grazed coastal meadows

Livestock grazing is an important management tool of agri-environment schemes initiated within the European Union to maintain and restore biodiversity of grassland birds. However, grazing can affect bird populations negatively by depressing reproduction through nest trampling and increasing nest predation. These effects are, however, considered low when using recommended stocking rates. By simulating wader nests, we experimentally quantify and examine the causes of variation in trampling rates on managed Baltic coastal meadows. Secondly, we examine whether livestock presence increases nest predation of one management target, the critically endangered southern dunlin (Calidris alpina schinzii). Trampling rates of experimental nests were high. Only 21% of nests would have survived a three week incubating period early in the grazing season. Trampling rates were most severe at the onset of grazing and decreased with time. Thus, timing of grazing plays a crucial role in determining breeding success on managed meadows. Predation rates of dunlin nests were moderate and did not depend on livestock presence suggesting that incubating dunlin are not disturbed by cattle. While grazing is vital in habitat restoration and in conserving grassland biodiversity, our results suggest that grazing may also threaten the viability of populations if negative effects are underestimated. Therefore, management plans, especially for endangered species, should not only rely on general recommendations on stocking rates but instead planners need to evaluate the significance of negative effects in terms of local conditions (timing of breeding and grazing, space use of cattle and birds, measured trampling rates) and adjust grazing practises accordingly.     

Manipulating Individual Decisions and Environmental Conditions Reveal Individual Quality in Decision-Making and Non-Lethal Costs of Predation Risk

Habitat selection is a crucial decision for any organism. Selecting a high quality site will positively impact survival and reproductive output. Predation risk is an important component of habitat quality that is known to impact reproductive success and individual condition. However, separating the breeding consequences of decision-making of wild animals from individual quality is difficult. Individuals face reproductive decisions that often vary with quality such that low quality individuals invest less. This reduced reproductive performance could appear a cost of increased risk but may simply reflect lower quality. Thus, teasing apart the effects of individual quality and the effect of predation risk is vital to understand the physiological and reproductive costs of predation risk alone on breeding animals. In this study we alter the actual territory location decisions of pied flycatchers by moving active nests relative to breeding sparrowhawks, the main predators of adult flycatchers. We experimentally measure the non-lethal effects of predation on adults and offspring while controlling for effects of parental quality, individual territory choice and initiation of breeding. We found that chicks from high predation risk nests (<50 m of hawk) were significantly smaller than chicks from low risk nests (>200 m from hawk). However, in contrast to correlative results, females in manipulated high risk nests did not suffer decreased body condition or increased stress response (HSP60 and HSP70). Our results suggest that territory location decisions relative to breeding avian predators cause spatial gradients in individual quality. Small adjustments in territory location decisions have crucial consequences and our results confirm non-lethal costs of predation risk that were expressed in terms of smaller offspring produced. However, females did not show costs in physiological condition which suggests that part of the costs incurred by adults exposed to predation risk are quality determined.     

Coping with Shifting Nest Predation Refuges by European Reed Warblers Acrocephalus scirpaceus

Predation, the most important source of nest mortality in altricial birds, has been a subject of numerous studies during past decades. However, the temporal dynamics between changing predation pressures and parental responses remain poorly understood. We analysed characteristics of 524 nests of European reed warblers monitored during six consecutive breeding seasons in the same area, and found some support for the shifting nest predation refuge hypothesis. Nest site characteristics were correlated with nest fate, but a nest with the same nest-site attributes could be relatively safe in one season and vulnerable to predation in another. Thus nest predation refuges were ephemeral and there was no between-season consistency in nest predation patterns. Reed warblers that lost their first nests in a given season did not disperse farther for the subsequent reproductive attempt, compared to successful individuals, but they introduced more changes to their second nest sites. In subsequent nests, predation risk remained constant for birds that changed nest-site characteristics, but increased for those that did not. At the between-season temporal scale, individual birds did not perform better with age in terms of reducing nest predation risk. We conclude that the experience acquired in previous years may not be useful, given that nest predation refuges are not stable.     

Human-resource subsidies alter the dietary preferences of a mammalian top predator

Seasonal fitness declines are common, but the relative contribution of different reproductive components to the seasonal change in the production of reproductive young, and the component-specific drivers of this change is generally poorly known. We used long-term data (17 years) on breeding time (i.e. date of first egg laid) in northern wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe) to investigate seasonal reproductive patterns and estimate the relative contributions of reproductive components to the overall decline in reproduction, while accounting for factors potentially linked to seasonal declines, i.e. individual and habitat quality. All reproductive components—nest success (reflecting nest predation rate), clutch size, fledging success and recruitment success—showed a clear decline with breeding time whereas subsequent adult survival did not. A non-linear increase in nest predation rate caused nest success to decline rapidly early in the season and level off at ~80 % success late in the breeding season. The combined seasonal decline in all reproductive components caused the mean production of recruits per nest to drop from around 0.7–0.2; with the relative contribution greatest for recruitment success which accounted for ~50 % of the decline. Our data suggest that changing environmental conditions together with effects of nest predation have strong effects on the seasonal decline in fitness. Our demonstration of the combined effects of all reproductive components and their relative contribution shows that omitting data from later stages of breeding (recruitment) can greatly underestimate seasonal fitness declines.     

The mating system of the White-throated Magpie-jay Calocitta formosa and Greenwood's hypothesis for sex-biased dispersal

Greenwood explained the different sex bias in dispersal of birds (usually female biased) and mammals (usually male biased) by a difference in mating systems: male birds primarily defend resources while male mammals primarily defend females. The White-throated Magpie-jay Calocitta formosa is unusual among birds in that females are philopatric and jointly defend permanent resource territories while males disperse before they are 2 years of age. One female in a group is the primary breeder. One male joins the group permanently as her mate. Males that do not have a permanent breeding position circulate among groups and attempt to mate with both the primary breeding female and other group females. Other females feed the primary breeder and her offspring and also pursue other reproductive behaviour, including secondary nesting in the territory and egg dumping into the primary breeder's nest. I argue that the unusual dispersal pattern in this species is a result of the alternative reproductive strategies that can be pursued by males and females excluded from being primary breeders. The White-throated Magpie-jay conforms to Greenwood's predictions: males pursue a mate defence rather than resource defence mating system and they are the dispersing sex. The primary factor influencing alternative reproductive tactics may be asynchronous reproduction among groups during the long breeding season arising from frequent renesting in an area of high nest predation.     

Elevation‐Related Differences in Parental Risk‐Taking Behavior are Associated with Cognitive Variation in Mountain Chickadees

Breeding animals must balance their current reproductive effort with potential costs to their own survival and consequently to future reproduction. Life‐history theory predicts that variation in reproductive investment should be based on fecundity and life expectancy with longer‐lived species favoring their own survival over parental investment. Recently, variation in parental risk taking was also linked with differences in cognition suggesting a potential trade‐off between cognitive ability and risk taking. Here, we tested whether mountain chickadees from two different elevations with known differences in cognitive ability differ in their parental risk taking by comparing the responses of nesting birds to a potential predator. Higher elevations are associated with shorter breeding season limiting renesting opportunities, but chickadees at high elevations also have better cognitive abilities, which might be potentially associated with better survival. Compared to lower elevations, high‐elevation chickadees laid larger clutches, showed longer latencies to return to the nest in the presence of a hawk, had lower fledging success, and exhibited higher rate of complete nest failures. Nestling development among successful nests, however, was similar between elevations. These data are not consistent with life‐history hypothesis because birds at high elevation invest more in the clutch, while at the same time take less risk when facing potential danger to themselves, which could jeopardize their current reproductive success. These data, however, are consistent with the hypothesis that better cognitive abilities might be associated with less parental risk taking.     

Nest Predation Management: Effects on Reproductive Success in Endangered Shorebirds

Abstract Many species have suffered population declines through loss of suitable habitat. In addition, current agricultural land use and human settlements favor generalist predators, which pose an increasing threat to ground-nesting bird species such as shorebirds (waders). During the last 2 decades, nest exclosures have been used to control nest-predation rates and often improved hatching success. We evaluated the effectiveness of protective nest-cages to boost reproductive success in the endangered southern dunlin (Calidris alpina schinzii) and ultimately to halt the population decline. We found that exclosures successfully increased the survival probability of nests and, thereby, the number of hatchlings, without markedly elevating the predation rate on incubating adults. Nest exclosures did not, however, translate into an increased number of fledglings and recruits produced/breeding adult in the population, showing that factors other than nest survival are also important for population development. Our results highlight that conservation efforts aimed only at removing high nest-predation pressure may be insufficient to preserve declining species such as the southern dunlin.     

Increased nest defence of upland‐nesting ducks in response to experimentally reduced risk of nest predation

Parent birds should take greater risks defending nests that have a higher probability of success. Given high rates of mammalian nest predation, therefore, parents should risk more for nests in areas with a lower risk of mammalian predation. We tested this hypothesis using nest defence data from over 1300 nests of six species of dabbling ducks studied in an area where predation risk had been reduced through removal of mammalian predators. When predator removal reduced nest predation, the ducks increased risk taking as predicted. Also as predicted, risk taking varied inversely with body size, an index of annual survival, among species. For ducks to vary nest defence in response to variation in predation risk they must be able to assess the risk of nest predation. Because ducks modified nest defence in the breeding season immediately following predator removal, ducks may be able to assess predator abundance indirectly (e.g. by UV reflection from urine) rather than by seeing or interacting directly with the predators.     

Group composition and reproductive success of cooperatively breeding white‐winged choughs (Corcorax melanorhamphos) in urban and non‐urban habitat

Abstract: White‐winged choughs (Corcorax melanorhamphos, Corcoracidae) are a common, breeding resident in and around the city of Canberra in the Australian Capital Territory. We compared five measures of reproductive success between the urban and non‐urban populations of choughs to investigate the effect of urbanization on this cooperatively breeding species. Urban choughs initiated breeding earlier than their non‐urban counterparts and were more likely to suffer nest failures. However, there was no difference in the number of successful nests in a season or the number of fledglings produced per successful nesting attempt. A greater proportion of fledglings survived their first 12 months in the non‐urban habitat. We suggest that increased rates of nest predation and fledgling mortality in the urban environment may have a negative effect on reproductive success and remove any advantage that might be gained through a longer breeding season. Possible effects of urbanization on the social and genetic structure of white‐winged choughs are also discussed.     

Brood desertion and polygamous breeding in the Kentish Plover Charadrius alexandrinus

In the Kentish Plover Charadrius alexandrinus one of the adults, typically the female, deserts the brood when the chicks are a few days old. Once parental care is terminated, adults may initiate a second nesting attempt if sufficient time remains within the season. For these nests, individuals pair with different mates from those of the first nesting attempt, thus becoming sequentially polygamous. In a small population of Kentish Plovers in Fuente de Piedra lake (southern Spain), the duration of biparental care of broods was longer than in other localities. It also showed considerable variation between years that was evidently related to Gull-billed Tern Gelochelidon nilotica predation pressure on the chicks. There was year-to-year variation in the number of polygamous matings. Both the duration of the breeding season and nesting success in the first half of the season limited the occurrence of polygamy. Despite females deserting broods earlier than males, the interval between the first and second nesting of polyandrous females and polygynous males was similar. The interval was not affected by the body condition of females after the first nesting attempt, nor by problems related to egg formation ability, but was probably due to the availability of potential mates. More females than males initiated second nests, suggesting that polygamous opportunities were more limited for males than for females. In terms of delayed breeding, reduced survivorship or reduced breeding opportunities in years following polygamous breeding, polygamous individuals did not have greater costs than non-polygamous ones. Females with second nests did not seem to be selective in mate choice, mating with any available male. Mates for second nests may therefore be of lower quality than those for first nests, as judged by male plumage characteristics. Clutch sizes and egg characteristics of polyandrous females were similar in first and second nests. Nest success of second nests was only 40% of that of first ones, with nest desertion accounting for 60% of the losses. As the costs of polygamy are apparently low and as breeding success is very variable among years, polygamous breeding of the long-lived Kentish Plover may be an important breeding strategy with which to increase individual lifetime reproductive success.