Influence of maternal nutrition on outcome of pregnancy: prospective cohort study

ObjectiveTo investigate the relations of maternal diet and smoking during pregnancy to placental and birth weights at term.DesignProspective cohort study.SettingDistrict general hospital in the south of England.Participants693 pregnant nulliparous white women with singleton pregnancies who were selected from antenatal booking clinics with stratified random sampling.ResultsPlacental and birth weights were unrelated to the intake of any macronutrient. Early in pregnancy, vitamin C was the only micronutrient independently associated with birth weight after adjustment for maternal height and smoking. Each ln mg increase in vitamin C was associated with a 50.8 g (95% confidence interval 4.6 g to 97.0 g) increase in birth weight. Vitamin C, vitamin E, and folate were each associated with placental weight after adjustment for maternal characteristics. In simultaneous regression, however, vitamin C was the only nutrient predictive of placental weight: each ln mg increase in vitamin C was associated with a 3.2% (0.4 to 6.1) rise in placental weight. No nutrient late in pregnancy was associated with either placental or birth weight.ConclusionsConcern over the impact of maternal nutrition on the health of the infant has been premature. Maternal nutrition, at least in industrialised populations, seems to have only a small effect on placental and birth weights. Other possible determinants of fetal and placental growth should be investigated.

Key messages

• Placental and infant birth weights were not associated with the intake of any macronutrient early or later in pregnancy
• After adjustment for the effects of maternal height and smoking, only vitamin C independently predicted birth weight. The expected mean difference in birth weight for infants with mothers in the upper and lower thirds of intake was about 70 g
• Vitamin C was the only nutrient that independently predicted placental weight, but again this relation was of doubtful clinical significance
• Among relatively well nourished women in industrialised countries, maternal nutrition seems to have only a marginal impact on infant and placental size. Other causes of variation in the size of clinically normal infants should now be investigated

     

Embryo quality: the missing link between pregnancy sickness and pregnancy outcome

Pregnancy sickness is widespread yet its etiology is poorly understood. It is almost certainly endocrine in origin and most likely a product of placental hormones, with human chorionic gonadotropin being the strongest candidate. It has long been known that greater levels of nausea and vomiting during pregnancy are associated with a lower incidence of spontaneous abortion, yet the causal mechanisms remain unclear. One current popular explanation is that nausea and vomiting during pregnancy is fetoprotective, inducing aversions to foods, especially meat, dairy and seafoods, which may carry toxins, pathogens or mutagens. However, most spontaneous abortions arise from genetic or epigenetic defects that are present at or near conception. Moreover, measurements of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) at the time of implantation, particularly its hyperglycosylated isoform, accurately predict subsequent spontaneous abortion. Thus the developmental fate of most embryos is fixed before the onset of the symptoms of pregnancy sickness. An alternative explanation for the link between pregnancy sickness and spontaneous abortion is the embryo quality hypothesis: high quality embryos are both more likely to produce the biochemical antecedents of pregnancy sickness and avoid spontaneous abortion. Recent work has shown that the link between pregnancy sickness and spontaneous abortion grows stronger with maternal age, dramatically so in mothers 35 or older. This reflects the parallel rise in the incidence of autosomal aneuploidies with maternal age. The link between pregnancy sickness and spontaneous abortion exists not because nausea and vomiting during pregnancy is fetoprotective, but because nausea and vomiting is an index of a high quality embryo. Pregnancy sickness is not adaptive per se, but the result of an antagonistic pleiotropy over thyroid function, where embryos use hCG to modulate maternal thyroid hormone production during gestation. Embryos benefit from the thyroid hormone production that is key to neurodevelopment, but produce maternal nausea and vomiting as a by-product. Pregnancy sickness, however, may still serve to protect embryo quality but by a different mechanism that posited under the MEPH. Embryo quality is protected by calibrating the dietary intake of a micronutrient – iodine – critical to neuromotor development. For most humans over most of our evolutionary history, iodine has been in short supply, and iodine deficiency is still the most common source of cognitive impairment across the globe. Thus it is of interest that the food aversions most commonly associated with pregnancy sickness, to meat, dairy and seafoods, are also the chief dietary sources of iodine. There is a further intriguing property about iodine: both too little and too much during early pregnancy are damaging to embryo brain development. Given that pregnancy sickness is closely linked to iodine intake and thyroid function (hypothyroidism is associated with lower levels of nausea and vomiting, hyperthyroidism with more), an obvious interpretation emerges. The previously described link between diet and pregnancy sickness – pregnancy sickness is less likely when plants and particularly corn/maize are the sole food staples – arises not because plant food staples are safe, as previously suggested, but because these foods are iodine poor and may, in addition, be goitrogenic. Pregnancy sickness, which reduces the dietary intake of iodine, is clearly maladaptive under conditions of iodine deficiency and hypothyroidism. Conversely, higher levels of pregnancy sickness induced by hyperthyroidism may protect embryos from the inimical effects of excessive dietary iodine during early gestation by reducing the intake of iodine rich foods.     

Incidence and outcome of bleeding before the 20th week of pregnancy: prospective study from general practice.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the miscarriage rate in a cohort of pregnant women and the final outcome of pregnancy. DESIGN: Two year prospective community study. SETTING: Women registered with four semirural practices at one health centre. SUBJECTS: 626 pregnant women from a population 21448, 5140 of whom were women aged 15-44 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Vaginal bleeding and outcome of pregnancy. Results: 76 of the 89 women with an unwanted pregnancy requested a termination. In the 550 ongoing pregnancies bleeding occurred before the 20th week in 117 (21%), and 67 (12%) ended in miscarriage. The risk of miscarriage was not significantly increased after a miscarriage in the previous pregnancy (11 (15%) women had miscarriage v 55 (12%) women who had not had miscarriage) who had previously had a live birth). Of the 117 women with bleeding, 64 were not admitted to hospital by the general practitioner; 42 of these women had an ultrasound examination at the health centre and 19 subsequently miscarried at home. In hospital 41 of 46 women who miscarried had evacuation of the uterus. CONCLUSIONS: Bleeding occurred in one fifth of recognised pregnancies before the 20th week and over half of these miscarried. Treatment of women with miscarriage at home means current statistics on miscarriage in Britain are missing many cases.     

A prospective study of maternal and fetal outcome in acute Lassa fever infection during pregnancy.

Several viral infections have been reported to result in more severe disease in pregnant than non-pregnant women, but the relative risks have not been well characterised. This has now been done for Lassa fever in a prospective study of 68 pregnant and 79 non-pregnant women who were admitted to hospital in Sierra Leone with confirmed Lassa fever. Lassa fever was the main cause of maternal mortality in the hospital, accounting for 25% of maternal deaths. Twelve of 40 patients in the third trimester died, compared with two of 28 in the first two trimesters and 10 of 79 non-pregnant women. The odds ratio for death in the third trimester compared with the first two trimesters was 5.57 (95% confidence intervals 1.02 to 30.26). The condition of the mother improved rapidly after evacuation of the uterus, whether by spontaneous abortion, evacuation of retained products of conception, or normal delivery; 10 of 26 women without uterine evacuation died, but only four of 39 women with evacuation died (p = 0.0016). The odds ratio for death with pregnancy intact was 5.47 (95% confidence interval 1.35 to 22.16). Fetal and neonatal loss was 87%. The risk of death from Lassa fever in the third trimester is significantly higher than that in the first two trimesters and higher than that for non-pregnant women, but evacuation of the uterus can significantly improve the mother''s chance of survival.     

Uptake of first two doses of human papillomavirus vaccine by adolescent schoolgirls in Manchester: prospective cohort study

Objective To assess the feasibility and acceptability of delivering a human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine to adolescent girls.Design Prospective cohort study.Setting 36 secondary schools in two primary care trusts in Greater Manchester, United Kingdom.Participants 2817 schoolgirls in year 8 (12 and 13 year olds).Intervention Delivery of the bivalent vaccine at 0, 1, and 6 months over one school year.Main outcome measures Vaccine uptake for doses 1 and 2 of a three dose schedule.Results Vaccine uptake was 70.6% (1989/2817) for the first dose and 68.5% (1930/2817) for the second dose. Uptake was significantly lower in schools with a higher proportion of ethnic minority girls (P<0.001 for trend) or higher proportion of girls entitled to free school meals (P=0.029 for trend). The main reason for parents’ refusal of vaccination was insufficient information about the vaccine and its long term safety. Maintaining the vaccine schedule was challenging as 16.3% (dose 1) and 23.6% (dose 2) of girls missed their vaccination day and had to be offered alternative appointments. No serious adverse events were reported.Conclusion Delivery of the first two doses of HPV vaccine to adolescent schoolgirls is encouraging, but the success of the vaccination programme depends on high coverage for the third dose.     

评价两种消毒剂对IVF实验室微环境和妊娠结局的影响

目的 在辅助生殖体外受精（IVF,in vitro ferrtization）实验室的胚胎操作过程中,根据消毒剂对胚胎质量和妊娠结局的影响,评价季铵盐消毒剂是否比75%酒精消毒液更适合用于IVF实验室。方法 回顾分析2016年1月至9月在我中心行的619例新鲜移植周期,根据IVF实验室使用的消毒剂不同分为两组,A组383例为使用75%酒精消毒组,B组236例使用季铵盐组。对比两组的VOC浓度、获卵数、获卵率、受精率、多精率、卵裂率、优质胚胎率、优质囊胚形成率、着床率、临床妊娠率以及流产率。结果 相比于A组,B组的VOC浓度显著降低;A、B两组的获卵数、获卵率、受精率、多精率、卵裂率、优质胚胎率、优质囊胚形成率和流产率均不具有统计学差异（P＞0.05）;但B组的着床率和妊娠率显著高于A组（P<0.05）。结论 两组对胚胎的体外培养质量没有显著性的影响,但使用季铵盐组相比于75%酒精组胚胎着床率和妊娠率显著提高。因此,季铵盐消毒剂比75%酒精更适合作为IVF实验室消毒剂。     

Impact of genotyping on outcome of prostatic biopsies: a multicenter prospective study

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been associated with prostate cancer (PCa) risk and tumor aggressiveness in retrospective studies. To assess the value of genotyping in a clinical setting, we evaluated the correlation between three genotypes (rs1447295 and rs6983267[8q24] and rs4054823[17p12]) and prostatic biopsy outcome prospectively in a French population of Caucasian men. Five hundred ninety-eight patients with prostatic-specific antigen (PSA) >4 ng/mL or abnormal digital rectal examination (DRE) participated in this prospective, multicenter study. Age, familial history of PCa, body mass index (BMI), data of DRE, International Prostate Symptom Score (I-PSS) score, PSA value and prostatic volume were collected prospectively before prostatic biopsy. Correlation between genotypes and biopsy outcome (positive or negative) and Gleason score (≤6 or >6) were studied by univariate and multivariable analysis. rs1447295 and rs6983267 risk variants were found to be associated with the presence of PCa in univariate analysis. rs6983267 genotype remained significantly linked to a positive biopsy (odds ratio [OR] = 1.66, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.06-2.59, P = 0.026) in multivariable analysis, but rs1447295 genotype did not (OR = 1.47, 95% CI: 0.89-2.43, P = 0.13).When biopsy outcome was stratified according to Gleason score, risk variants of rs1447295 were associated with aggressive disease (Gleason score ≥7) in univariate and multivariable analysis (OR = 2.05 95% CI: 1.10-3.79, P = 0.023). rs6983267 GG genotype was not related to aggressiveness. The results did not reach significance concerning rs4054823 for any analysis. This inaugural prospective evaluation thus confirmed potential usefulness of genotyping PCa assessment. Ongoing clinical evaluation of larger panels of SNPs will detail the actual impact of genetic markers on clinical practice.     

Relation of caffeine intake and blood caffeine concentrations during pregnancy to fetal growth: prospective population based study.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the association of plasma caffeine concentrations during pregnancy with fetal growth and to compare this with relations with reported caffeine intake. DESIGN: Prospective population based study. SETTING: District general hospital, inner London. SUBJECTS: Women booking for delivery between 1982 and 1984. Stored plasma was available for 1,500 women who had provided a blood sample on at least one occasion and for 640 women who had provided a sample on all three occasions (at booking, 28 weeks, and 36 weeks). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Birth weight adjusted for gestational age, maternal height, parity, and sex of infant. The exposures of interest were reported caffeine consumption and blood caffeine concentration. Cigarette smoking was assessed by blood cotinine concentration. RESULTS: Caffeine intake showed no changes during pregnancy, but blood caffeine concentrations rose by 75%. Although caffeine intake increased steadily with increasing cotinine concentration above 15 ng/ml, blood caffeine concentrations fell. Caffeine consumption was inversely related to adjusted birth weight, the estimated effect being a 1.3% fall in birth weight for a 1,000 mg per week increase in intake (95% confidence interval 0.5% to 2.1%). The apparent caffeine effect was confined to cigarette smokers, among whom the estimated effect was-1.6%/1000 mg a week (-2.9% to -0.2%) after adjustment for cotinine and -1.3% (-2.7% to 0.1%) after further adjustment for social class and alcohol intake. Adjusted birth weight was unrelated to blood caffeine concentrations overall (P = 0.09, but a positive coefficient), after adjustment for cotinine (P = 0.73), or among current smokers (P = 0.45). CONCLUSIONS: Smokers consume more caffeine than non-smokers. Blood caffeine concentrations during pregnancy are not related to fetal growth, but caffeine intake is negatively associated with birth weight, with this effect being apparent only in smokers. The effect remains of borderline significance after adjustment for other factors. Prudent advice for pregnant women would be to reduce caffeine intake in conjunction with stopping smoking.     

Outcomes of planned home births with certified professional midwives: large prospective study in North America

Objective To evaluate the safety of home births in North America involving direct entry midwives, in jurisdictions where the practice is not well integrated into the healthcare system.Design Prospective cohort study.Setting All home births involving certified professional midwives across the United States (98% of cohort) and Canada, 2000.Participants All 5418 women expecting to deliver in 2000 supported by midwives with a common certification and who planned to deliver at home when labour began.Main outcome measures Intrapartum and neonatal mortality, perinatal transfer to hospital care, medical intervention during labour, breast feeding, and maternal satisfaction.Results 655 (12.1%) women who intended to deliver at home when labour began were transferred to hospital. Medical intervention rates included epidural (4.7%), episiotomy (2.1%), forceps (1.0%), vacuum extraction (0.6%), and caesarean section (3.7%); these rates were substantially lower than for low risk US women having hospital births. The intrapartum and neonatal mortality among women considered at low risk at start of labour, excluding deaths concerning life threatening congenital anomalies, was 1.7 deaths per 1000 planned home births, similar to risks in other studies of low risk home and hospital births in North America. No mothers died. No discrepancies were found for perinatal outcomes independently validated.Conclusions Planned home birth for low risk women in North America using certified professional midwives was associated with lower rates of medical intervention but similar intrapartum and neonatal mortality to that of low risk hospital births in the United States.     

Widespread body pain and mortality: prospective population based study

ObjectiveTo determine whether there is excess mortality in groups of people who report widespread body pain, and if so to establish the nature and extent of any excess.DesignProspective follow up study over eight years. Mortality rate ratios were adjusted for age group, sex, and study location.SettingNorth west England.Participants6569 people who took part in two pain surveys during 1991-2.Results1005 (15%) participants had widespread pain, 3176 (48%) had regional pain, and 2388 (36%) had no pain. During follow up mortality was higher in people with regional pain (mortality rate ratio 1.21, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.44) and widespread pain (1.31, 1.05 to 1.65) than in those who reported no pain. The excess mortality among people with regional and widespread pain was almost entirely related to deaths from cancer (1.55 (1.09 to 2.19) for regional pain and 2.07 (1.37 to 3.13) for widespread pain). The excess cancer mortality remained after exclusion of people in whom cancer had been diagnosed before the original survey and after adjustment for potential confounding factors. There were also more deaths from causes other than disease (for example, accidents, suicide, violence) among people with widespread pain (5.21, 0.94 to 28.78).ConclusionThere is an intriguing association between the report of widespread pain and subsequent death from cancer in the medium and long term. This may have implications for the long term follow up of patients with “unexplained” widespread pain symptoms, such as those with fibromyalgia.

What is already known on this topic

Widespread body pain, the cardinal symptom of fibromyalgia, is commonAn organic basis for symptoms is found in only a small proportion of peopleTreatment is difficult, and studies with short term follow up have shown that symptoms commonly persist

What this study adds

This was the first study with long term follow up of people with widespread pain in the communityThese people experience an increased mortality and the excess is principally related to deaths from cancer     

妊娠贫血对产科结局的影响

目的:了解妊娠中、晚期贫血的发生率及其对产科结局的影响。方法:对951例孕妇产前及产后血红蛋白(Hb)检测结果与产科结局的关系进行回顾性分析。Hb<100g/L的孕妇为贫血组,Hb≥100g/L的孕妇为正常对照组,分别对孕中期及孕晚期贫血与产科结局进行对照分析。结果:孕中期贫血导致孕晚期贫血、产后贫血、早产、过期妊娠、胎盘功能欠佳发生率增加(P<0.05)。孕晚期贫血导致产后贫血、早产、低体重儿的出生、胎盘早剥发生率增加(P<0.05),孕晚期贫血可增加妊高征、死胎、胎膜早破的发生率(P>0.05)。双胎妊娠增加妊娠贫血的发生率。结论:妊娠中、晚期贫血对产科结局有不良影响,应加强妊娠期贫血的防治,从妊娠中期常规补铁,降低妊娠期贫血的发生率,保障母婴健康。     

Prostaglandin-induced abortion and outcome of subsequent pregnancies: a prospective controlled study

We analysed a prospective series of 204 pregnancies occurring in 168 women after a prostaglandin-induced abortion. The mean (±standard error of mean) interval between abortion and first subsequent conception was 10·4 ± 0·6 months; no patient reported secondary subfertility.Fifty-five of the subsequent pregnancies were terminated, 23 during the second trimester, again using prostaglandins. Of the 149 pregnancies not terminated, 127 were delivered at term, and 19 spontaneously aborted, seven during the second trimester; there was one missed abortion and two ectopic pregnancies. Morbidity in the 127 term pregnancies was infrequent; spontaneous preterm labour occurred in three patients, and four singleton infants weighed less than 2500 g at birth. There was no apparent association between morbidity in the subsequent pregnancies and the period of gestation at the time of the previous abortion, route of prostaglandin administration, or need for post-abortion curettage.The results obtained overall were very similar to a control group of 612 women consecutively admitted for delivery or abortion to the Oxford obstetrical and gynaecological units. There was, however, an increased incidence of spontaneous abortion and placenta praevia after prostaglandin-induced abortion, and the multigravidae in that group had a longer average duration of labour than the control group. Sixty-five per cent of the post-abortion pregnancies were unplanned compared with 36% of the control group.     

妊娠晚期生殖道感染与妊娠结局的相关性分析

目的探讨妊娠晚期几种常见的生殖道病原微生物感染与妊娠结局的相关性。方法选取2013年1月至2015年4月新疆医科大学第二附属医院收治的妊娠晚期生殖道病原微生物感染患者633例作为观察组,同时随机选取同期病原体检测阴性者413例作为对照组,比较两组不良妊娠结局的发生情况。结果经过临床实验室检查,观察组中病原微生物培养情况分布以支原体感染491例(46.94%)、假丝酵母菌感染195例(18.64%)两种较为多见,观察组中支原体感染者胎膜早破、产褥感染、新生儿感染(χ2=65.44,P0.05);衣原体感染者早产、产褥感染(χ2=72.87,P0.05);滴虫感染者胎膜早破、产褥感染(χ2=24.20,P0.05);假丝酵母菌感染者早产、胎膜早破、产褥感染、胎儿窘迫、新生儿感染率(χ2=71.76,P0.05)明显高于对照组,差异有统计学意义。剖宫产率及新生儿窒息率的比较差异无统计学意义(χ2=1.04,P0.05)。而多重与单一病原体感染比较,除早产外其余妊娠结局差异无统计学意义(χ2=73.08,P0.05)。结论妊娠晚期生殖道病原微生物感染,会增加不良妊娠结局的发生率,应引起围产妇及临床医师的重视,适时进行干预减少不良结局的发生。     

Relationship between gestational cocaine use and pregnancy outcome: a meta-analysis.

Despite a growing number of studies that have investigated the reproductive effects of maternal cocaine use, a homogeneous pattern of fetal effects has not been established and there is little consensus on the adverse effects of the drug. We used meta-analysis to evaluate the reproductive risks of cocaine. We reviewed the 45 scientific papers published in the English language dealing with effects of cocaine used during pregnancy on pregnancy outcome in humans, and identified 20 papers eligible for meta-analysis (cocaine use in pregnancy, pregnancy/fetal outcome studies, human studies, original work, cohort or case control studies, control group present, English language). Our analysis revealed that very few adverse reproductive effects could be shown to be significantly associated with cocaine use by polydrug users when compared to control groups of polydrug users not using cocaine [genitourinary malformations; odds ratio of 6.08 (95% CI 1.18-31.3); gestation age: Cohen's d 0.37 (CI 0.2-0.55)]. When the control groups consisted of no drug users, the polydrug users abusing cocaine had a higher risk for spontaneous abortions [odds ration 10.50 (CI 11.74-64.1)]. Similarly, comparison of users of cocaine alone or no drug users revealed a higher risk for in utero death, in addition to genitourinary tract malformations. Analysis of continuous variables (head circumference, gestational age, birth weight and length) revealed that the effect size was dependent upon the nature of the comparison. Comparison of cocaine users to no drug users consistently yielded a medium effect size (Cohen's d) between 0.50 and 0.58, while comparison of polydrug/cocaine users to polydrug/no cocaine users provided effect sizes small to non existent (0.06-0.37). These discrepancies suggest that a variety of adverse reproductive effects commonly quoted to be associated with maternal use of cocaine may be caused by confounding factors clustering in cocaine users.     

Effects of pregnancy on locomotor performance: an experimental study on lizards

Pregnancy is associated with reduced locomotor performance in many types of animals, but we do not know to what degree this correlation is caused by simple physical burdening, versus physiological changes associated with pregnancy, or to confounding variables (such as season or female body size) that simultaneously influence both reproductive investment and locomotor speeds. To identify causal effects of burden on locomotion, we need to experimentally manipulate the size of the load being carried. Injection of sterile fluid into the peritoneal cavities of 84 garden skinks (Lampropholis guichenoti) showed that speeds decreased with increasing burdens. Lizards with a burden equivalent to 25% of their body mass ran about 15% slower, mirroring the situation seen in gravid lizards of this population. Thus, simple physical burdening appears to be the primary causal component of the locomotor cost of reproduction within these animals. A lizard's sex, body size and shape had little effect on its running ability either before or after treatment, but faster lizards showed a greater performance decrement after burdening than did their slower conspecifics.     

Changing patterns of teenage pregnancy: population based study of small areas

ObjectivesTo measure the impact of socioeconomic deprivation on rates of teenage pregnancy and the extent of local variation in pregnancy rates in Scotland, and to examine how both have changed over time.Design Population study using routine data from hospital records, aggregated for small areas.Subjects Female teenagers resident in Scotland who were treated for pregnancy in an NHS hospital in either 1981-5 (62 338 teenagers) or 1991-5 (48 514) and who were aged 13-19 at the time of conception.Results From the 1980s to the 1990s pregnancy rates increased differentially according to levels of local deprivation, as measured by the Carstairs index. Among teenagers aged less than 18 the annual pregnancy rate increased in the most deprived areas (from 7.0 to 12.5 pregnancies per 1000 13-15 year olds and from 67.6 to 84.6 per 1000 16-17 year olds), but there was no change, on average, among teenagers in the most affluent areas (3.8 per 1000 13-15 year olds and 28.9 per 1000 16-17 year olds). Among 18-19 year olds the pregnancy rate decreased in the most affluent areas (from 60.0 to 46.3 per 1000) and increased in the most deprived areas (from 112.4 to 116.0 per 1000). The amount of local variation explained by deprivation more than doubled from the 1980s to the 1990s. The proportion of pregnancies resulting in a maternity was positively associated with level of deprivation, but the effect remained similar over time.Conclusion From the 1980s to the 1990s the difference in rates of teenage pregnancy between more affluent and more deprived areas widened. This has implications for allocating resources to achieve government targets and points to important social processes behind the general increase in the number of teenage pregnancies in Scotland.

What is already known on this topic

Rates of teenage pregnancy are considerably higher in the United Kingdom than in other western European countriesIn the United Kingdom rates of teenage pregnancy are known to be higher in areas of greater socioeconomic deprivation, although local variation may also reflect differential access to family planning services

What this study adds

From 1981-5 to 1991-5 rates of teenage pregnancy in Scotland increased more rapidly in areas of greater socioeconomic deprivationIn the 1990s socioeconomic deprivation explained more than 50% of local variation in rates of teenage pregnancy, more than double the amount explained by it in the 1980s     

Linear discrete population models with two time scales in fast changing environments II: non-autonomous case

As the result of the complexity inherent in nature, mathematical models employed in ecology are often governed by a large number of variables. For instance, in the study of population dynamics we often deal with models for structured populations in which individuals are classified regarding their age, size, activity or location, and this structuring of the population leads to high dimensional systems. In many instances, the dynamics of the system is controlled by processes whose time scales are very different from each other. Aggregation techniques take advantage of this situation to build a low dimensional reduced system from which behavior we can approximate the dynamics of the complex original system.In this work we extend aggregation techniques to the case of time dependent discrete population models with two time scales where both the fast and the slow processes are allowed to change at their own characteristic time scale, generalizing the results of previous studies. We propose a non-autonomous model with two time scales, construct an aggregated model and give relationship between the variables governing the original and the reduced systems. We also explore how the properties of strong and weak ergodicity, regarding the capacity of the system to forget initial conditions, of the original system can be studied in terms of the reduced system.