The spatial pattern of leaf phenology and its response to climate change in China

Leaf phenology has been shown to be one of the most important indicators of the effects of climate change on biological systems. Few such studies have, however, been published detailing the relationship between phenology and climate change in Asian contexts. With the aim of quantifying species’ phenological responsiveness to temperature and deepening understandings of spatial patterns of phenological and climate change in China, this study analyzes the first leaf date (FLD) and the leaf coloring date (LCD) from datasets of four woody plant species, Robinia pseudoacacia, Ulmus pumila, Salix babylonica, and Melia azedarach, collected from 1963 to 2009 at 47 Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON) stations spread across China (from 21° to 50° N). The results of this study show that changes in temperatures in the range of 39–43 days preceding the date of FLD of these plants affected annual variations in FLD, while annual variations in temperature in the range of 71–85 days preceding LCD of these plants affected the date of LCD. Average temperature sensitivity of FLD and LCD for these plants was ?3.93 to 3.30 days °C^?1 and 2.11 to 4.43 days °C^?1, respectively. Temperature sensitivity of FLD was found to be stronger at lower latitudes or altitude as well as in more continental climates, while the response of LCD showed no consistent pattern. Within the context of significant warming across China during the study period, FLD was found to have advanced by 5.44 days from 1960 to 2009; over the same period, LCD was found to have been delayed by 4.56 days. These findings indicate that the length of the growing season of the four plant species studied was extended by a total of 10.00 days from 1960 to 2009. They also indicate that phenological response to climate is highly heterogeneous spatially.     

Multiple phenological responses to climate change among 42 plant species in Xi’an, China

Phenological data of 42 woody plants in a temperate deciduous forest from the Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON) and the corresponding meteorological data from 1963 to 2011 in Xi’an, Shaanxi Province, China were collected and analyzed. The first leaf date (FLD), leaf coloring date (LCD) and first flower date (FFD) are revealed as strong biological signals of climatic change. The FLD, LCD and FFD of most species are sensitive to average temperature during a certain period before phenophase onset. Regional precipitation also has a significant impact on phenophases of about half of the species investigated. Affected by climate change, the FLD and FFD of these species have advanced by 5.54 days and 10.20 days on average during 2003–2011 compared with the period 1963–1996, respectively. Meanwhile, the LCD has delayed by 10.59 days, and growing season length has extended 16.13 days. Diverse responses of phenology commonly exist among different species and functional groups during the study period. Especially for FFD, the deviations between the above two periods ranged from ?20.68 to ?2.79 days; biotic pollination species showed a significantly greater advance than abiotic pollination species. These results were conducive to the understanding of possible changes in both the structure of plant communities and interspecific relationships in the context of climate change.     

A matter of timing: changes in the first date of arrival and last date of departure of Australian migratory birds

Although there is substantial evidence that Northern Hemisphere species have responded to climatic change over the last few decades, there is little documented evidence that Southern Hemisphere species have responded in the same way. Here, we report that Australian migratory birds have undergone changes in the first arrival date (FAD) and last date of departure (LDD) of a similar magnitude as species from the Northern Hemisphere. We compiled data on arrival and departure of migratory birds in south‐east Australia since 1960 from the published literature, Bird Observer Reports, and personal observations from bird watchers. Data on the FAD for 24 species and the LDD for 12 species were analyzed. Sixteen species were short‐ to middle‐distance species arriving at their breeding grounds, seven were long‐distance migrants arriving at their nonbreeding grounds, and one was a middle‐distance migrant also arriving at its nonbreeding ground. For 12 species, we gathered data from more than one location, enabling us to assess the consistency of intraspecific trends at different locations. Regressions of climate variables against year show that across south‐east Australia average annual maximum and minimum temperatures have increased by 0.17°C and 0.13°C decade^?1 since 1960, respectively. Over this period there has been an average advance in arrival of 3.5 days decade^?1; 16 of the 45 time‐series (representing 12 of the 24 species studied) showed a significant trend toward earlier arrival, while only one time‐series showed a significant delay. Conversely, there has been an average delay in departure of 5.1 days decade^?1; four of the 21 departure time‐series (four species) showed a significant trend toward later departure, while one species showed a significant trend toward earlier departure. However, differences emerge between the arrival and departure of short‐ to middle‐distance species visiting south‐east Australia to breed compared with long‐distance species that spend their nonbreeding period here. On average, short‐ to middle‐distance migrants have arrived at their breeding grounds 3.1 days decade^?1 earlier and delayed departure by 8.1 days decade^?1, thus extending the time spent in their breeding grounds by ～11 days decade^?1. The average advance in arrival at the nonbreeding grounds of long‐distance migrants is 6.8 days decade^?1. These species, however, have also advanced departure by an average of 6.9 days decade^?1. Hence, the length of stay has not changed but rather, the timing of events has advanced. The patterns of change in FAD and LDD of Australian migratory birds are of a similar magnitude to changes undergone by Northern Hemisphere species, and add further evidence that the modest warming experienced over the past few decades has already had significant biological impacts on a global scale.     

Global warming is increasing the discrepancy between green (actual) and thermal (potential) seasons of temperate trees

Over the past decades, global warming has led to a lengthening of the time window during which temperatures remain favorable for carbon assimilation and tree growth, resulting in a lengthening of the green season. The extent to which forest green seasons have tracked the lengthening of this favorable period under climate warming, however, has not been quantified to date. Here, we used remote sensing data and long-term ground observations of leaf-out and coloration for six dominant species of European trees at 1773 sites, for a total of 6060 species–site combinations, during 1980–2016 and found that actual green season extensions (GS: 3.1 ± 0.1 day decade⁻¹) lag four times behind extensions of the potential thermal season (TS: 12.6 ± 0.1 day decade⁻¹). Similar but less pronounced differences were obtained using satellite-derived vegetation phenology observations, that is, a lengthening of 4.4 ± 0.13 and 7.5 ± 0.13 day decade⁻¹ for GS and TS, respectively. This difference was mainly driven by the larger advance in the onset of the thermal season compared to the actual advance of leaf-out dates (spring mismatch: 7.2 ± 0.1 day decade⁻¹), but to a less extent caused by a phenological mismatch between GS and TS in autumn (2.4 ± 0.1 day decade⁻¹). Our results showed that forest trees do not linearly track the new thermal window extension, indicating more complex interactions between winter and spring temperatures and photoperiod and a justification of demonstrating that using more sophisticated models that include the influence of chilling and photoperiod is needed to accurately predict spring phenological changes under warmer climate. They urge caution if such mechanisms are omitted to predict, for example, how vegetative health and growth, species distribution and crop yields will change in the future.     

Leaf phenology in 22 North American tree species during the 21st century

Recent shifts in phenology are the best documented biological response to current anthropogenic climate change, yet remain poorly understood from a functional point of view. Prevailing analyses are phenomenological and approximate, only correlating temperature records to imprecise records of phenological events. To advance our understanding of phenological responses to climate change, we developed, calibrated, and validated process-based models of leaf unfolding for 22 North American tree species. Using daily meteorological data predicted by two scenarios (A2: +3.2 °C and B2: +1 °C) from the HadCM3 GCM, we predicted and compared range-wide shifts of leaf unfolding in the 20th and 21st centuries for each species. Model predictions suggest that climate change will affect leaf phenology in almost all species studied, with an average advancement during the 21st century of 5.0 days in the A2 scenario and 9.2 days in the B2 scenario. Our model also suggests that lack of sufficient chilling temperatures to break bud dormancy will decrease the rate of advancement in leaf unfolding date during the 21st century for many species. Some temperate species may even have years with abnormal budburst due to insufficient chilling. Species fell into two groups based on their sensitivity to climate change: (1) species that consistently had a greater advance in their leaf unfolding date with increasing latitude and (2) species in which the advance in leaf unfolding differed from the center to the northern vs. southern margins of their range. At the interspecific level, we predicted that early-leafing species tended to show a greater advance in leaf unfolding date than late-leafing species; and that species with larger ranges tend to show stronger phenological changes. These predicted changes in phenology have significant implications for the frost susceptibility of species, their interspecific relationships, and their distributional shifts.     

Phenological response to climate change in China: a meta‐analysis

The change in the phenology of plants or animals reflects the response of living systems to climate change. Numerous studies have reported a consistent earlier spring phenophases in many parts of middle and high latitudes reflecting increasing temperatures with the exception of China. A systematic analysis of Chinese phenological response could complement the assessment of climate change impact for the whole Northern Hemisphere. Here, we analyze 1263 phenological time series (1960–2011, with 20+ years data) of 112 species extracted from 48 studies across 145 sites in China. Taxonomic groups include trees, shrubs, herbs, birds, amphibians and insects. Results demonstrate that 90.8% of the spring/summer phenophases time series show earlier trends and 69.0% of the autumn phenophases records show later trends. For spring/summer phenophases, the mean advance across all the taxonomic groups was 2.75 days decade^?1 ranging between 2.11 and 6.11 days decade^?1 for insects and amphibians, respectively. Herbs and amphibians show significantly stronger advancement than trees, shrubs and insect. The response of phenophases of different taxonomic groups in autumn is more complex: trees, shrubs, herbs and insects show a delay between 1.93 and 4.84 days decade^?1, while other groups reveal an advancement ranging from 1.10 to 2.11 days decade^?1. For woody plants (including trees and shrubs), the stronger shifts toward earlier spring/summer were detected from the data series starting from more recent decades (1980s–2000s). The geographic factors (latitude, longitude and altitude) could only explain 9% and 3% of the overall variance in spring/summer and autumn phenological trends, respectively. The rate of change in spring/summer phenophase of woody plants (1960s–2000s) generally matches measured local warming across 49 sites in China (R = ?0.33, P < 0.05).     

Historical Cover Trends in a Sagebrush Steppe Ecosystem from 1985 to 2013: Links with Climate,Disturbance, and Management

Understanding the causes and consequences of component change in sagebrush steppe is crucial for evaluating ecosystem sustainability. The sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) steppe ecosystem of the northwest USA has been impacted by the invasion of exotic grasses, increasing fire return intervals, changing land management practices, and fragmentation, often lowering the overall resilience to change. We utilized contemporary and historical Landsat imagery, field data, and regression tree models to produce fractional cover maps of rangeland components (shrub, sagebrush, herbaceous, bare ground, and litter) through the last 30 years. Our main goals were to (1) investigate rangeland component trends over 30 years, (2) evaluate the magnitude and direction of trends in components and climate drivers and their relationship, and (3) assess component trends influenced by climate. Results indicated that over the study period, shrub, sage, herbaceous, and litter cover decreased, while bare ground cover increased. Measured rates of change ranged from ? 0.14% decade^?1 for shrub cover to 0.05% decade^?1 for bare ground, whereas herbaceous and litter cover trends were negligible. Net landscape cover changes were consistent with expectations of climate change and disturbance producing a loss of biotic cover, and converting a portion of shrub and sagebrush to herbaceous cover. Overall, fire and related successional recovery was the greatest change agent for all components in terms of area and cover change, while increasing minimum temperature, at a rate of 0.66°C decade^?1, was found to be the most significant climate driver.     

Climate tracking by freshwater fishes suggests that fish diversity in temperate lakes may be increasingly threatened by climate warming

Aim

Many freshwater fishes are migrating poleward to more thermally suitable habitats in response to warming climates. In this study, we aimed to identify which freshwater fishes are most sensitive to climatic changes and asked: (i) how fast are lakes warming? (ii) how fast are fishes moving? and (iii) are freshwater fishes tracking climate?

Location

Ontario, Canada.

Methods

We assembled a database containing time series data on climate and species occurrence data from 10,732 lakes between 1986 and 2017. We calculated the rate of lake warming and climate velocity for these lakes. Climate velocities were compared with biotic velocities, specifically the rate at which the northernmost extent of each species shifted north.

Results

Lakes in Ontario warmed by 0.2°C decade⁻¹ on average, at a climate velocity of 9.4 km decade⁻¹ between 1986 and 2017. In response, some freshwater fishes have shifted their northern range boundaries with considerable interspecific variation ranging from species moving southwards at a rate of −58.9 km decade⁻¹ to species ranges moving northwards at a rate of 83.6 km decade⁻¹ over the same time period. More freshwater fish species are moving into northern lakes in Ontario than those being lost. Generally, predators are moving their range edges northwards, whereas prey fishes are being lost from northern lakes.

Main Conclusions

The concurrent loss of cooler refugia, combined with antagonistic competitive and predatory interactions with the range expanding species, has resulted in many commercially important predators moving their range edges northwards, whereas prey species have contracted their northern range edge boundaries. Trophic partitioning of range shifts highlights a previously undocumented observation of the loss of freshwater fishes from lower trophic levels in response to climate-driven migrations.     

Phenological and elevational shifts of plants,animals and fungi under climate change in the European Alps

Mountain areas are biodiversity hotspots and provide a multitude of ecosystem services of irreplaceable socio-economic value. In the European Alps, air temperature has increased at a rate of about 0.36°C decade⁻¹ since 1970, leading to glacier retreat and significant snowpack reduction. Due to these rapid environmental changes, this mountainous region is undergoing marked changes in spring phenology and elevational distribution of animals, plants and fungi. Long-term monitoring in the European Alps offers an excellent natural laboratory to synthetize climate-related changes in spring phenology and elevational distribution for a large array of taxonomic groups. This review assesses the climatic changes that have occurred across the European Alps during recent decades, spring phenological changes and upslope shifts of plants, animals and fungi from evidence in published papers and previously unpublished data. Our review provides evidence that spring phenology has been shifting earlier during the past four decades and distribution ranges show an upwards trend for most of the taxonomic groups for which there are sufficient data. The first observed activity of reptiles and terrestrial insects (e.g. butterflies) in spring has shifted significantly earlier, at an average rate of −5.7 and −6.0 days decade⁻¹, respectively. By contrast, the first observed spring activity of semi-aquatic insects (e.g. dragonflies and damselflies) and amphibians, as well as the singing activity or laying dates of resident birds, show smaller non-significant trends ranging from −1.0 to +1.3 days decade⁻¹. Leaf-out and flowering of woody and herbaceous plants showed intermediate trends with mean values of −2.4 and −2.8 days decade⁻¹, respectively. Regarding species distribution, plants, animals and fungi (N = 2133 species) shifted the elevation of maximum abundance (optimum elevation) upslope at a similar pace (on average between +18 and +25 m decade⁻¹) but with substantial differences among taxa. For example, the optimum elevation shifted upward by +36.2 m decade⁻¹ for terrestrial insects and +32.7 m decade⁻¹ for woody plants, whereas it was estimated to range between −1.0 and +11 m decade⁻¹ for semi-aquatic insects, ferns, birds and wood-decaying fungi. The upper range limit (leading edge) of most species also shifted upslope with a rate clearly higher for animals (from +47 to +91 m decade⁻¹) than for plants (from +17 to +40 m decade⁻¹), except for semi-aquatic insects (−4.7 m decade⁻¹). Although regional land-use changes could partly explain some trends, the consistent upward shift found in almost all taxa all over the Alps is likely reflecting the strong warming and the receding of snow cover that has taken place across the European Alps over recent decades. However, with the possible exception of terrestrial insects, the upward shift of organisms seems currently too slow to track the pace of isotherm shifts induced by climate warming, estimated at about +62 to +71 m decade⁻¹ since 1970. In the light of these results, species interactions are likely to change over multiple trophic levels through phenological and spatial mismatches. This nascent research field deserves greater attention to allow us to anticipate structural and functional changes better at the ecosystem level.     

Complex Spatiotemporal Responses of Global Terrestrial Primary Production to Climate Change and Increasing Atmospheric CO2 in the 21st Century

Quantitative information on the response of global terrestrial net primary production (NPP) to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO₂ is essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the 21^st century. Using a process-based ecosystem model (the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, DLEM), we quantified the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of contemporary (2000s) global NPP, and projected its potential responses to climate and CO₂ changes in the 21^st century under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We estimated a global terrestrial NPP of 54.6 (52.8–56.4) PgC yr⁻¹ as a result of multiple factors during 2000–2009. Climate change would either reduce global NPP (4.6%) under the A2 scenario or slightly enhance NPP (2.2%) under the B1 scenario during 2010–2099. In response to climate change, global NPP would first increase until surface air temperature increases by 1.5°C (until the 2030s) and then level-off or decline after it increases by more than 1.5°C (after the 2030s). This result supports the Copenhagen Accord Acknowledgement, which states that staying below 2°C may not be sufficient and the need to potentially aim for staying below 1.5°C. The CO₂ fertilization effect would result in a 12%–13.9% increase in global NPP during the 21^st century. The relative CO₂ fertilization effect, i.e. change in NPP on per CO₂ (ppm) bases, is projected to first increase quickly then level off in the 2070s and even decline by the end of the 2080s, possibly due to CO₂ saturation and nutrient limitation. Terrestrial NPP responses to climate change and elevated atmospheric CO₂ largely varied among biomes, with the largest increases in the tundra and boreal needleleaf deciduous forest. Compared to the low emission scenario (B1), the high emission scenario (A2) would lead to larger spatiotemporal variations in NPP, and more dramatic and counteracting impacts from climate and increasing atmospheric CO₂.     

Attribution of climate change: a methodology to estimate the potential contribution to increases in potato yield in Scotland since 1960

Maincrop potato yields in Scotland have increased by 30–35 t ha^?1 since 1960 as a result of many changes, but has changing climate contributed anything to this? The purpose of this work was to answer this question. Daily weather data for the period 1960–2006 were analysed for five locations covering the zones of potato growing on the east coast of Scotland (between 55.213 and 57.646 N) to determine trends in temperature, rainfall and solar radiation. A physiologically based potato yield model was validated using data obtained from a long‐term field trial in eastern Scotland and then employed to simulate crop development and potential yield at each of the five sites. Over the 47 years, there were significant increases in annual air and 30 cm soil temperatures (0.27 and 0.30 K decade^?1, respectively), but no significant changes in annual precipitation or in the timing of the last frost in spring and the first frost of autumn. There was no evidence of any north to south gradient of warming. Simulated emergence and canopy closure became earlier at all five sites over the period with the advance being greater in the north (3.7 and 3.6 days decade^?1, respectively) than the south (0.5 and 0.8 days decade^?1, respectively). Potential yield increased with time, generally reflecting the increased duration of the green canopy, at average rates of 2.8 t ha^?1 decade^?1 for chitted seed (sprouted prior to planting) and 2.5 t ha^?1 decade^?1 for unchitted seed. The measured warming could contribute potential yield increases of up to 13.2 t ha^?1 for chitted potato (range 7.1–19.3 t ha^?1) and 11.5 t ha^?1 for unchitted potato (range 7.1–15.5 t ha^?1) equivalent to 34–39% of the increased potential yield over the period or 23–26% of the increase in actual measured yields.     

气候变化背景下1964-2015年秦岭植物物候变化

以1964-2015年物候观测数据为基础,选取17种含乔木、灌木及藤本树种为研究对象,分析探讨了气候变化背景下秦岭地区植物物候变化规律及其差异性。结果表明:(1)52年来,秦岭地区物候始期普遍呈提前趋势,提前速率1.2d/10a,物候末期普遍呈推迟趋势,推迟速率3.5d/10a,物候生长期普遍延长;(2)秦岭地区物候突变发生于20世纪80年代,始期于1985年,末期于1984年。突变后,物候特征发生了显著变化,始期的提前速率较突变前显著加快,末期由突变前的提前趋势转变为极显著的推迟趋势,且变化速率和显著性均高于始期;始期与末期变化均表现出"趋同效应";物候年代际变化趋势显示,始期自2001-2005年起提前速率减缓,植物对气候变化的响应表现出适应性及滞后性。(3)秦岭物候变化存在树种差异,3大类树种始期的提前速率呈藤本、乔木、灌木依次增大,而末期的推迟速率则呈藤本、灌木、乔木依次减小。(4)秦岭物候变化存在南北差异,北坡始期的提前速率均高于南坡,而南坡末期的推迟速率均高于北坡。     

Do stream fish track climate change? Assessing distribution shifts in recent decades

Understanding the ability of species to shift their distribution ranges in response to climate change is crucial for conservation biologists and resources managers. Although freshwater ecosystems include some of the most imperilled fauna worldwide, such range shifts have been poorly documented in streams and rivers and have never been compared to the current velocity of climate change. Based on national monitoring data, we examined the distributional changes of 32 stream fish species in France and quantified potential time lags in species responses, providing a unique opportunity to analyze range shifts over recent decades of warming in freshwater environments. A multi‐facetted approach, based on several range measures along spatial gradients, allowed us to quantify range shifts of numerous species across the whole hydrographic network between an initial period (1980–1992) and a contemporary one (2003–2009), and to contrast them to the rates of isotherm shift in elevation and stream distance. Our results highlight systematic species shifts towards higher elevation and upstream, with mean shifts in range centre of 13.7 m decade^?1 and 0.6 km decade^?1, respectively. Fish species displayed dispersal‐driven expansions along the altitudinal gradient at their upper range limit (61.5 m decade^?1), while substantial range contractions at the lower limit (6.3 km decade^?1) were documented for most species along the upstream–downstream gradient. Despite being consistent with the geographic variation in climate change velocities, these patterns reveal that the majority of stream fish have not shifted at a pace sufficient to track changing climate, in particular at their range centre where range shifts lag far behind expectation. Our study provides evidence that stream fish are currently responding to recent climate warming at a greater rate than many terrestrial organisms, although not as much as needed to cope with future climate modifications.     

Climatic Changes Lead to Declining Winter Chill for Fruit and Nut Trees in California during 1950–2099

Background

Winter chill is one of the defining characteristics of a location''s suitability for the production of many tree crops. We mapped and investigated observed historic and projected future changes in winter chill in California, quantified with two different chilling models (Chilling Hours, Dynamic Model).

Methodology/Principal Findings

Based on hourly and daily temperature records, winter chill was modeled for two past temperature scenarios (1950 and 2000), and 18 future scenarios (average conditions during 2041–2060 and 2080–2099 under each of the B1, A1B and A2 IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, for the CSIRO-MK3, HadCM3 and MIROC climate models). For each scenario, 100 replications of the yearly temperature record were produced, using a stochastic weather generator. We then introduced and mapped a novel climatic statistic, “safe winter chill”, the 10% quantile of the resulting chilling distributions. This metric can be interpreted as the amount of chilling that growers can safely expect under each scenario. Winter chill declined substantially for all emissions scenarios, with the area of safe winter chill for many tree species or cultivars decreasing 50–75% by mid-21^st century, and 90–100% by late century.

Conclusions/Significance

Both chilling models consistently projected climatic conditions by the middle to end of the 21^st century that will no longer support some of the main tree crops currently grown in California, with the Chilling Hours Model projecting greater changes than the Dynamic Model. The tree crop industry in California will likely need to develop agricultural adaptation measures (e.g. low-chill varieties and dormancy-breaking chemicals) to cope with these projected changes. For some crops, production might no longer be possible.     

Review of Carbon Fixation in Bamboo Forests in China

Bamboo is widespread in the subtropics and tropics of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. The total area of bamboo forests of various species is 22.0?×?10⁶ ha, accounting for about 1.0% of the total global area of forest. Although the total forest areas in many countries have decreased drastically, bamboo forests have increased at a rate of 3% annually. China has the richest resources of bamboo in the world, with over 500 species in 39 genera. Carbon storage of vegetation, soils, and litter in bamboo forest system in China was 0.2511?×?10¹⁵, 0.8516?×?10¹⁵, and 0.0361?×?10¹⁵ g C, respectively, giving a total of 1.1388?×?10¹⁵ g C. This paper reviews carbon storage of vegetation, soils, and litter in bamboo forest system and compares the carbon fixation abilities of bamboo forest ecosystems with those of other tree species in subtropical China.     

Onset of spring starting earlier across the Northern Hemisphere

Recent warming of Northern Hemisphere (NH) land is well documented and typically greater in winter/spring than other seasons. Physical environment responses to warming have been reported, but not details of large‐area temperate growing season impacts, or consequences for ecosystems and agriculture. To date, hemispheric‐scale measurements of biospheric changes have been confined to remote sensing. However, these studies did not provide detailed data needed for many investigations. Here, we show that a suite of modeled and derived measures (produced from daily maximum–minimum temperatures) linking plant development (phenology) with its basic climatic drivers provide a reliable and spatially extensive method for monitoring general impacts of global warming on the start of the growing season. Results are consistent with prior smaller area studies, confirming a nearly universal quicker onset of early spring warmth (spring indices (SI) first leaf date, ?1.2 days decade^?1), late spring warmth (SI first bloom date, ?1.0 days decade^?1; last spring day below 5°C, ?1.4 days decade^?1), and last spring freeze date (?1.5 days decade^?1) across most temperate NH land regions over the 1955–2002 period. However, dynamics differ among major continental areas with North American first leaf and last freeze date changes displaying a complex spatial relationship. Europe presents a spatial pattern of change, with western continental areas showing last freeze dates getting earlier faster, some central areas having last freeze and first leaf dates progressing at about the same pace, while in portions of Northern and Eastern Europe first leaf dates are getting earlier faster than last freeze dates. Across East Asia last freeze dates are getting earlier faster than first leaf dates.     

气候变化和不同强度造林对大兴安岭主要树种林分信息和地上生物量的长期影响

气候变化及相应火干扰在不同尺度上影响着我国大兴安岭地区森林动态,且在未来的影响可能继续加剧。为了提高森林生态功能和应对气候变暖,国家在分类经营基础上全面实施抚育采伐和补植造林,效果较好,但抚育采伐对森林主要树种的长期影响知之甚少,其在未来气候下的可持续性也有待进一步评估,同时,探讨造林措施对未来森林的影响也显得尤为重要。本文运用森林景观模型LANDIS PRO,模拟气候变化及火干扰、采伐和造林对大兴安岭地区主要树种的长期影响。结果表明:1)模型初始化、短期和长期模拟结果均得到了有效验证,模拟结果与森林调查数据之间无显著性差异(P0.05),基于火烧迹地数据的林火干扰验证亦能够反映当前火干扰的效果,模型模拟结果的可信度较高;2)与当前气候相比,气候变暖及火干扰明显改变了树种组成、年龄结构和地上生物量,B1气候下研究区森林基本上以针叶树种为主要树种,A2气候下优势树种向阔叶树转变;3)与无采伐预案相比,当前气候下,抚育采伐使落叶松的林分密度和地上生物量分别降低了(165±94.9)株/hm~2和(8.5±5.1) Mg/hm~2,增加了樟子松、白桦和云杉等树木株数和地上生物量(3.3—753.4株/hm~2和0.2—4.0 Mg/hm~2),而对山杨的影响较小;B1和A2气候下抚育采伐显著改变林分密度,降低景观尺度地上生物量,进而表现为不可持续;4)B1气候下,推荐实施中低强度造林预案(10%和20%强度),在A2气候下,各强度造林均可在模拟后期增加树种地上生物量。     

Reproductive biology of the invasive Asian freshwater leech Barbronia weberi (Blanchard, 1897)

Barbronia weberi were collected from Hydrilla verticillata purchased from aquarium suppliers in Melbourne, Australia and additional B. weberi were obtained from aquatic plants in Canberra, ACT, Australia. Adult leeches fed Tubifex sp. ad libitum successfully reproduced under laboratory conditions (21 ± 5?°C ). Reproductively mature B. weberi produced cocoons every week for up to three months at which time the adults began to senesce. Cocoons contained one to five (barx=2.41±0.78 SD, N=58) eggs with juveniles leaving the cocoon within 27 ± 3.4 SD days (N=13) of cocoon production. Juvenile B. weberi reached reproductive maturity within four months (N=7) of hatching and had a maximum growth rate of 1.10 mm² d^?1 once they left the cocoon at around 30 days. Individual egg volume (r=0.63, scaling exponent = 1.21) and cocoon volume (r=0.65, scaling exponent = 1.24) showed a significant (P<0.001) and nearly isometric relationship when scaled with maternal body size. Because this species can grow rapidly and produce a large number of eggs over a short period of time and can piggyback with plant species and travel through the aquarium trade, there is potential for B. weberi to rapidly invade new localities.     

Growth, production and carbon sequestration of silvopastoral systems with native timber species in the dry lowlands of Costa Rica

The multiple environmental issues of loss of forest cover due to cattle farming combined with pasture degradation leading to low levels of production, consequent extensification and therefore to more deforestation, are serious concerns in Costa Rica. To test the feasibility of countering these by combining a more productive pasture system with indigenous tree species, a silvopastoral experiment was established on a farm in the seasonally dry lowlands of Cañas, Guanacaste Province. A rapidly growing pasture species (Brachiaria brizantha) was tested against a traditional pasture dominated by Hyparrhenia rufa. Three indigenous tree species were established: Pithecellobium saman, Diphysa robinioides and Dalbergia retusa. Plots were grazed by cattle for 4 or 5 days with one to 2 month intervals between grazing episodes. After 51 months, D. robinioides was the fastest growing species, and P. saman the slowest, while B. brizantha produced three times the above ground and twice the below ground biomass as H. rufa, and trees had no effect upon grass yield. Contrary to competition theory, there was no effect of pasture species upon the two faster growing tree species. The carbon in above and below ground phytomass varied between 3.5 and 12.5 Mg C ha^?1 in treeless pasture controls and silvopastoral systems, respectively, and total soil organic carbon (TSOC) in the upper 0.6 m averaged 110 Mg ha^?1. B. brizantha appeared to stimulate tree root production, which in turn was highly correlated with TSOC, resulting in annual increments in TSOC of up to 9.9 Mg ha^?1 year^?1. These early results indicate the promising potential of this silvopastoral system for combining cattle production, and increasing tree cover and carbon sequestration.     

Climate,competition and connectivity affect future migration and ranges of European trees

Aim Species ranges have adapted during the Holocene to altering climate conditions, but it remains unclear if species will be able to keep pace with recent and future climate change. The goal of our study is to assess the influence of changing macroclimate, competition and habitat connectivity on the migration rates of 14 tree species. We also compare the projections of range shifts from species distribution models (SDMs) that incorporate realistic migration rates with classical models that assume no or unlimited migration. Location Europe. Methods We calibrated SDMs with species abundance data from 5768 forest plots from ICP Forest Level 1 in relation to climate, topography, soil and land‐use data to predict current and future tree distributions. To predict future species ranges from these models, we applied three migration scenarios: no migration, unlimited migration and realistic migration. The migration rates for the SDMs incorporating realistic migration were estimated according to macroclimate, inter‐specific competition and habitat connectivity from simulation experiments with a spatially explicit process model (TreeMig). From these relationships, we then developed a migration cost surface to constrain the predicted distributions of the SDMs. Results The distributions of early‐successional species during the 21st century predicted by SDMs that incorporate realistic migration matched quite well with the unlimited migration assumption (mean migration rate over Europe for A1fi/GRAS climate and land‐use change scenario 156.7 ± 79.1 m year^?1 and for B1/SEDG 164.3 ± 84.2 m year^?1). The predicted distributions of mid‐ to late‐successional species matched better with the no migration assumption (A1fi/GRAS, 15.2 ± 24.5 m year^?1 and B1/SEDG, 16.0 ± 25.6 m year^?1). Inter‐specific competition, which is higher under favourable growing conditions, reduced range shift velocity more than did adverse macroclimatic conditions (i.e. very cold or dry climate). Habitat fragmentation also led to considerable time lags in range shifts. Main conclusions Migration rates depend on species traits, competition, spatial habitat configuration and climatic conditions. As a result, re‐adjustments of species ranges to climate and land‐use change are complex and very individualistic, yet still quite predictable. Early‐successional species track climate change almost instantaneously while mid‐ to late‐ successional species were predicted to migrate very slowly.