Prospecting and informed dispersal: Understanding and predicting their joint eco‐evolutionary dynamics

The ability of individuals to leave a current breeding area and select a future one is important, because such decisions can have multiple consequences for individual fitness, but also for metapopulation dynamics, structure, and long‐term persistence through non‐random dispersal patterns. In the wild, many colonial and territorial animal species display informed dispersal strategies, where individuals use information, such as conspecific breeding success gathered during prospecting, to decide whether and where to disperse. Understanding informed dispersal strategies is essential for relating individual behavior to subsequent movements and then determining how emigration and settlement decisions affect individual fitness and demography. Although numerous theoretical studies have explored the eco‐evolutionary dynamics of dispersal, very few have integrated prospecting and public information use in both emigration and settlement phases. Here, we develop an individual‐based model that fills this gap and use it to explore the eco‐evolutionary dynamics of informed dispersal. In a first experiment, in which only prospecting evolves, we demonstrate that selection always favors informed dispersal based on a low number of prospected patches relative to random dispersal or fully informed dispersal, except when individuals fail to discriminate better patches from worse ones. In a second experiment, which allows the concomitant evolution of both emigration probability and prospecting, we show the same prospecting strategy evolving. However, a plastic emigration strategy evolves, where individuals that breed successfully are always philopatric, while failed breeders are more likely to emigrate, especially when conspecific breeding success is low. Embedding information use and prospecting behavior in eco‐evolutionary models will provide new fundamental understanding of informed dispersal and its consequences for spatial population dynamics.     

Prospecting and dispersal: their eco-evolutionary dynamics and implications for population patterns

Dispersal is not a blind process, and evidence is accumulating that individual dispersal strategies are informed in most, if not all, organisms. The acquisition and use of information are traits that may evolve across space and time as a function of the balance between costs and benefits of informed dispersal. If information is available, individuals can potentially use it in making better decisions, thereby increasing their fitness. However, prospecting for and using information probably entail costs that may constrain the evolution of informed dispersal, potentially with population-level consequences. By using individual-based, spatially explicit simulations, we detected clear coevolutionary dynamics between prospecting and dispersal movement strategies that differed in sign and magnitude depending on their respective costs. More specifically, we found that informed dispersal strategies evolve when the costs of information acquisition during prospecting are low but only if there are mortality costs associated with dispersal movements. That is, selection favours informed dispersal strategies when the acquisition and use processes themselves were not too expensive. When non-informed dispersal strategies evolve, they do so jointly with the evolution of long dispersal distance because this maximizes the sampling area. In some cases, selection produces dispersal rules different from those that would be ‘optimal’ (i.e. the best possible population performance—in our context quantitatively measured as population density and patch occupancy—among all possible individual movement rules) for the population. That is, on the one hand, informed dispersal strategies led to population performance below its highest possible level. On the other hand, un- and poorly informed individuals nearly optimized population performance, both in terms of density and patch occupancy.     

Post-release dispersal in animal translocations: social attraction and the "vacuum effect"

Animal translocations are human-induced colonizations that can represent opportunities to contribute to the knowledge on the behavioral and demographic processes involved in the establishment of animal populations. Habitat selection behaviors, such as social cueing, have strong implications on dispersal and affect the establishment success of translocations. Using modeling simulations with a two-population network model (a translocated population and a remnant population), we investigated the consequences of four habitat selection strategies on post-translocation establishment probabilities in short- and long-lived species. Two dispersal strategies using social cues (conspecific attraction and habitat copying) were compared to random and quality-based strategies. We measured the sensitivity of local extinctions to dispersal strategies, life cycles, release frequencies, remnant population and release group sizes, the proportion of breeders and the connectivity between populations. Our results indicate that social behaviors can compromise establishment as a result of post-release dispersal, particularly in long-lived species. This behavioral mechanism, the "vacuum effect", arises from increased emigration in populations that are small relative to neighboring populations, reducing their rate of population growth. The vacuum effect can drive small remnant populations to extinction when a translocated group is large. In addition, the magnitude of the vacuum effect varies non-linearly with connectivity. The vacuum effect represents a novel form of the behaviorally mediated Allee effect that can cause unexpected establishment failures or population extinctions in response to social cueing. Accounting for establishment probabilities as a conditional step to the persistence of populations would improve the accuracy of predicting the fates of translocated or natural (meta)populations.     

Dispersal, eviction, and conflict in meerkats (Suricata suricatta): an evolutionarily stable strategy model

Decisions regarding immigration and emigration are crucial to understanding group dynamics in social animals, but dispersal is rarely treated in models of optimal behavior. We developed a model of evolutionarily stable dispersal and eviction strategies for a cooperative mammal, the meerkat Suricata suricatta. Using rank and group size as state variables, we determined state-specific probabilities that subordinate females would disperse and contrasted these with probabilities of eviction by the dominant female, based on the long-term fitness consequences of these behaviors but incorporating the potential for error. We examined whether long-term fitness considerations explain group size regulation in meerkats; whether long-term fitness considerations can lead to conflict between dominant and subordinate female group members; and under what circumstances those conflicts were likely to lead to stability, dispersal, or eviction. Our results indicated that long-term fitness considerations can explain group size regulation in meerkats. Group size distributions expected from predicted dispersal and eviction strategies matched empirical distributions most closely when emigrant survival was approximately that determined from the field study. Long-term fitness considerations may lead to conflicts between dominant and subordinate female meerkats, and eviction is the most likely result of these conflicts. Our model is computationally intensive but provides a general framework for incorporating future changes in the size of multimember cooperative breeding groups.     

Accelerating invasion rates result from the evolution of density-dependent dispersal

Evolutionary processes play an important role in shaping the dynamics of range expansions, and selection on dispersal propensity has been demonstrated to accelerate rates of advance. Previous theory has considered only the evolution of unconditional dispersal rates, but dispersal is often more complex. For example, many species emigrate in response to crowding. Here, we use an individual-based model to investigate the evolution of density dependent dispersal into empty habitat, such as during an invasion. The landscape is represented as a lattice and dispersal between populations follows a stepping-stone pattern. Individuals carry three ‘genes’ that determine their dispersal strategy when experiencing different population densities. For a stationary range we obtain results consistent with previous theoretical studies: few individuals emigrate from patches that are below equilibrium density. However, during the range expansion of a previously stationary population, we observe evolution towards dispersal strategies where considerable emigration occurs well below equilibrium density. This is true even for moderate costs to dispersal, and always results in accelerating rates of range expansion. Importantly, the evolution we observe at an expanding front depends upon fitness integrated over several generations and cannot be predicted by a consideration of lifetime reproductive success alone. We argue that a better understanding of the role of density dependent dispersal, and its evolution, in driving population dynamics is required especially within the context of range expansions.     

The ability of individuals to assess population density influences the evolution of emigration propensity and dispersal distance

We analyze the simultaneous evolution of emigration and settlement decisions for actively dispersing species differing in their ability to assess population density. Using an individual-based model we simulate dispersal as a multi-step (patch to patch) movement in a world consisting of habitat patches surrounded by a hostile matrix. Each such step is associated with the same mortality risk. Our simulations show that individuals following an informed strategy, where emigration (and settlement) probability depends on local population density, evolve a lower (natal) emigration propensity but disperse over significantly larger distances - i.e. postpone settlement longer - than individuals performing density-independent emigration. This holds especially when variation in environmental conditions is spatially correlated. Both effects can be traced to the informed individuals' ability to better exploit existing heterogeneity in reproductive chances. Yet, already moderate distance-dependent dispersal costs prevent the evolution of multi-step (long-distance) dispersal, irrespective of the dispersal strategy.     

The ideal free distribution as an evolutionarily stable strategy

We examine the evolutionary stability of strategies for dispersal in heterogeneous patchy environments or for switching between discrete states (e.g. defended and undefended) in the context of models for population dynamics or species interactions in either continuous or discrete time. There have been a number of theoretical studies that support the view that in spatially heterogeneous but temporally constant environments there will be selection against unconditional, i.e. random, dispersal, but there may be selection for certain types of dispersal that are conditional in the sense that dispersal rates depend on environmental factors. A particular type of dispersal strategy that has been shown to be evolutionarily stable in some settings is balanced dispersal, in which the equilibrium densities of organisms on each patch are the same whether there is dispersal or not. Balanced dispersal leads to a population distribution that is ideal free in the sense that at equilibrium all individuals have the same fitness and there is no net movement of individuals between patches or states. We find that under rather general assumptions about the underlying population dynamics or species interactions, only such ideal free strategies can be evolutionarily stable. Under somewhat more restrictive assumptions (but still in considerable generality), we show that ideal free strategies are indeed evolutionarily stable. Our main mathematical approach is invasibility analysis using methods from the theory of ordinary differential equations and nonnegative matrices. Our analysis unifies and extends previous results on the evolutionary stability of dispersal or state-switching strategies.     

Ancestrality and evolution of trait syndromes in finches (Fringillidae)

Species traits have been hypothesized by one of us (Ponge, 2013) to evolve in a correlated manner as species colonize stable, undisturbed habitats, shifting from “ancestral” to “derived” strategies. We predicted that generalism, r‐selection, sexual monomorphism, and migration/gregariousness are the ancestral states (collectively called strategy A) and evolved correlatively toward specialism, K‐selection, sexual dimorphism, and residence/territoriality as habitat stabilized (collectively called B strategy). We analyzed the correlated evolution of four syndromes, summarizing the covariation between 53 traits, respectively, involved in ecological specialization, r‐K gradient, sexual selection, and dispersal/social behaviors in 81 species representative of Fringillidae, a bird family with available natural history information and that shows variability for all these traits. The ancestrality of strategy A was supported for three of the four syndromes, the ancestrality of generalism having a weaker support, except for the core group Carduelinae (69 species). It appeared that two different B‐strategies evolved from the ancestral state A, both associated with highly predictable environments: one in poorly seasonal environments, called B1, with species living permanently in lowland tropics, with “slow pace of life” and weak sexual dimorphism, and one in highly seasonal environments, called B2, with species breeding out‐of‐the‐tropics, migratory, with a “fast pace of life” and high sexual dimorphism.     

Natal habitat effects drive density—dependent scaling of dispersal decisions

The dispersal behavior of a species is critical for the stability and persistence of its populations across a landscape. How population density affects dispersal decisions is important for predicting these dynamics, as the form of density‐dependent dispersal influences the stability and persistence of populations. Natal habitat experience often has strong impacts on individual dispersal behavior as well, but its influence on density‐dependent dispersal behaviors remains unexplored. Here we address this conceptual gap in two experiments separately examining habitat selection and emigration from recently colonized patches for two species of flour beetle Tribolium sp. We found that interactions between the quality of habitat experienced during natal development and current habitat for dispersal capable adults can strongly affect the form of density dependence, including reversing the direction of nonlinearities (accelerating to decelerating), or even negating the influence of population density for individual dispersal decisions. Across heterogeneous landscapes, where individuals from different populations may experience different natal habitats, this altering of density‐dependent relationships is predicted by theory to fundamentally influence regional population dynamics. Our results indicate that species which occur across heterogeneous environments, such as during conservation reintroductions, or as invasive species spread, have much potential for natal experience to interact with density dependence and influence local and regional population dynamics.     

The evolution of dispersal – the importance of information about population density and habitat characteristics

The evolution of mobility patterns and dispersal strategies depend on different population, habitat and life history characteristics. The ability to perceive and make use of information about the surrounding environment for dispersal decisions will also differ between organisms. To investigate the evolutionary consequences of such differences, we have used a simulation model with nearest-neighbour dispersal in a metapopulation to study how variation in the ability to obtain and make use of information about habitat quality and conspecific density affects the evolution of dispersal strategies. We found a rather strong influence of variation in information on the overall rate of dispersal in a metapopulation. The highest emigration rate evolved in organisms with no information about either density or habitat quality and the lowest rate was found in organisms with information about both the natal and the neighbouring patches. For organisms that can make use of information about conspecific density, positively density-dependent dispersal evolved in the majority of cases, with the strongest density dependence occurring when an individual only has information about density in the natal patch. However, we also identified situations, involving strong local population fluctuations and frequent local extinctions, where negatively density-dependent dispersal evolved.     

Local adaptation,dispersal evolution,and the spatial eco‐evolutionary dynamics of invasion

Local adaptation and dispersal evolution are key evolutionary processes shaping the invasion dynamics of populations colonizing new environments. Yet their interaction is largely unresolved. Using a single‐species population model along a one‐dimensional environmental gradient, we show how local competition and dispersal jointly shape the eco‐evolutionary dynamics and speed of invasion. From a focal introduction site, the generic pattern predicted by our model features a temporal transition from wave‐like to pulsed invasion. Each regime is driven primarily by local adaptation, while the transition is caused by eco‐evolutionary feedbacks mediated by dispersal. The interaction range and cost of dispersal arise as key factors of the duration and speed of each phase. Our results demonstrate that spatial eco‐evolutionary feedbacks along environmental gradients can drive strong temporal variation in the rate and structure of population spread, and must be considered to better understand and forecast invasion rates and range dynamics.     

The evolution of dispersal distance in spatially-structured populations

Most evolutionary models of dispersal have concentrated on dispersal rate, with emigration being either global or restricted to nearest neighbours. Yet most organisms fall into an intermediate region where most dispersal is local but there is a wide range of dispersal distances. We use an individual-based model with 2500 patches each with identical local dynamics and show that the dispersal distance is under selection pressure. The dispersal distance that evolves is critically dependent on the ecological dynamics. When the cost of dispersal increases linearly with distance, selection is for short-distance dispersal under stable and damped local dynamics but longer distance dispersal is favoured as local dynamics become more complex. For the cases of stable, damped and periodic patch dynamics global patch synchrony occurs even with very short-distance dispersal. Increasing the scale of dispersal for chaotic local dynamics increases the scale of synchrony but global synchrony does not neccesarily occur. We discuss these results in the light of other possible causes of dispersal and argue for the importance of incorporating non-equilibrium population dynamics into evolutionary models of dispersal distance.     

The ideal free distribution as an evolutionarily stable strategy

We examine the evolutionary stability of strategies for dispersal in heterogeneous patchy environments or for switching between discrete states (e.g. defended and undefended) in the context of models for population dynamics or species interactions in either continuous or discrete time. There have been a number of theoretical studies that support the view that in spatially heterogeneous but temporally constant environments there will be selection against unconditional, i.e. random, dispersal, but there may be selection for certain types of dispersal that are conditional in the sense that dispersal rates depend on environmental factors. A particular type of dispersal strategy that has been shown to be evolutionarily stable in some settings is balanced dispersal, in which the equilibrium densities of organisms on each patch are the same whether there is dispersal or not. Balanced dispersal leads to a population distribution that is ideal free in the sense that at equilibrium all individuals have the same fitness and there is no net movement of individuals between patches or states. We find that under rather general assumptions about the underlying population dynamics or species interactions, only such ideal free strategies can be evolutionarily stable. Under somewhat more restrictive assumptions (but still in considerable generality), we show that ideal free strategies are indeed evolutionarily stable. Our main mathematical approach is invasibility analysis using methods from the theory of ordinary differential equations and nonnegative matrices. Our analysis unifies and extends previous results on the evolutionary stability of dispersal or state-switching strategies.     

Animal movement in the absence of predation: environmental drivers of movement strategies in a partial migration system

Animal movement strategies including migration, dispersal, nomadism, and residency are shaped by broad‐scale spatial‐temporal structuring of the environment, including factors such as the degrees of spatial variation, seasonality and inter‐annual predictability. Animal movement strategies, in turn, interact with the characteristics of individuals and the local distribution of resources to determine local patterns of resource selection with complex and poorly understood implications for animal fitness. Here we present a multi‐scale investigation of animal movement strategies and resource selection. We consider the degree to which spatial variation, seasonality, and inter‐annual predictability in resources drive migration patterns among different taxa and how movement strategies in turn shape local resource selection patterns. We focus on adult Galapagos giant tortoises Chelonoidis spp. as a model system since they display many movement strategies and evolved in the absence of predators of adults. Specifically, our analysis is based on 63 individuals among four taxa tracked on three islands over six years and almost 10⁶ tortoise re‐locations. Tortoises displayed a continuum of movement strategies from migration to sedentarism that were linked to the spatio‐temporal scale and predictability of resource distributions. Movement strategies shaped patterns of resource selection. Specifically, migratory individuals displayed stronger selection toward areas where resources were more predictable among years than did non‐migratory individuals, which indicates a selective advantage for migrants in seasonally structured, more predictable environments. Our analytical framework combines large‐scale predictions for movement strategies, based on environmental structuring, with finer‐scale analysis of space‐use. Integrating different organizational levels of analysis provides a deeper understanding of the eco‐evolutionary dynamics at play in the emergence and maintenance of migration and the critical role of resource predictability. Our results highlight that assessing the potential benefits of differential behavioral responses first requires an understanding of the interactions among movement strategies, resource selection and individual characteristics.     

Unraveling the dispersal patterns and the social drivers of natal emigration of a cooperative breeding mammal,the golden lion tamarin

The study of the social drivers of animal dispersal is key to understanding the evolution of social systems. Among the social drivers of natal emigration, the conspecific attraction, aggressive eviction, and reduced social integration hypotheses predict that sexually mature individuals who receive more aggressive behavior and are engaged in less affiliative interactions are more likely to disperse. Few reports have explored these proximate factors affecting emigration in cooperatively breeding species, particularly of Neotropical primates. In this study, we investigated the dispersal patterns and tested the social drivers of natal emigration in the golden lion tamarin (Leontopithecus rosalia) — an endangered species inhabiting Atlantic rainforests fragments in Brazil. We used behavioral and demographic data collected during 7 years from 68 groups of tamarins inhabiting 20 forest fragments. Our analyses from the 160 dispersing individuals showed that dispersal success is higher for males and for those engaged in parallel dispersal, but that males and females use different strategies to enhance their dispersal success, males immigrate into established groups while females form new groups. We did not find high levels of agonistic behavior among group members before natal emigration. Instead we found that conspecific attraction drives natal emigration in both sexes, while additionally the low level of affiliative interactions within the natal group triggers male emigration. We discuss natal emigration in the broader perspective of the cooperative breeding system and the implications of these findings for the conservation of the species.     

Interactions between spatial and temporal scales in the evolution of dispersal rate

The evolution of dispersal rate is studied with a model of several local populations linked by dispersal. Three dispersal strategies are considered where all, half or none of the offspring disperse. The spatial scale (number of patches) and the temporal scale (probability of local extinction) of the environment are critical in determining the selective advantage of the different dispersal strategies. The results from the simulations suggest that an interaction between group selection and individual selection results in a different outcome in relation to the spatial and temporal scales of the environment. Such an interaction is able to maintain a polymorphism in dispersal strategies. The maintenance of this polymorphism is also scale-dependent. This study suggests a mechanism for the short-term evolution of dispersal, and provides a testable prediction of this hypothesis, namely that loss of dispersal abilities should be more frequent in spatially more continuous environments, or in temporally more stable environments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Density‐dependent dispersal and the formation of range borders.

Knowledge about the mechanisms of range formation is crucial for scientifically based species conservation strategies in the face of ongoing global climate change. In recent years an increasing amount of studies have focused on the influences of density‐dependent dispersal on demographic and biogeographical patterns. However, it still remains unclear, to what extent and in what ways this strategy would affect the range formation of species. In order to fill this gap, we present a study using individual‐based simulations of a species with discrete generations living along a dispersal mortality gradient. We compare the evolution of range sizes for species following density‐dependent and density‐independent emigration. Furthermore we assess the influence of environmental stochasticity and Allee effects on range formation, as both processes are known to play an important role for dispersal evolution. We find that density‐dependent dispersal always results in much wider ranges than unconditional dispersal. Increasing environmental stochasticity, a predicted consequence of climate change, can remarkably expand the ranges of species living in such connectivity gradients if dispersal decisions are based on local population density. A strong Allee effect causes range contraction for both strategies, but the effect is considerably less dramatic under density‐dependent compared to density‐independent emigration. We strongly recommend accounting for these findings in future attempts to model species’ range shifts due to climate change.     

EVOLUTION OF GENETIC INTEGRATION BETWEEN DISPERSAL AND COLONIZATION ABILITY IN A BIRD

Discrete behavioral strategies comprise a suite of traits closely integrated in their expression with consistent natural selection for such coexpression leading to developmental and genetic integration of their components. However, behavioral traits are often also selected to respond rapidly to changing environments, which should both favor their context-dependent expression and inhibit evolution of genetic integration with other, less flexible traits. Here we use a multigeneration pedigree and long-term data on lifetime fitness to test whether behaviors comprising distinct dispersal strategies of western bluebirds—a species in which the propensity to disperse is functionally integrated with aggressive behavior—are genetically correlated. We further investigated whether selection favors flexibility in the expression of aggression in relation to current social context. We found a significant genetic correlation between aggression and dispersal that is concordant with consistent selection for coexpression of these behaviors. To a limited extent, individuals modified their aggression to match their mate; however, we found no fitness consequences on such adjustments. These results introduce a novel way of viewing behavioral strategies, where flexibility of behavior, while often aiding an organism's fit in its current environment, may be limited and thereby enable integration with less flexible traits.     

Influence of food availability on demography and local population dynamics in a long-lived seabird

Few studies have addressed the effects of food availability as a proximate factor affecting local adult survival in long-lived organisms and their consequences at local population dynamics. We used capture-recapture analysis of resightings of 10 birth cohorts of ringed Audouin's gulls, Larus audouinii, to estimate adult survival and dispersal (both emigration and immigration). For the first time, permanent emigration (the transient effect in capture-recapture analysis) was modelled for the whole population and not only for the newly marked birds. Gulls exploit to a large extent fishes discarded from trawlers, and a trawling moratorium established since 1991 has decreased food supply for the colony. This was used as a natural experiment of food availability to assess its effects on adult survival and emigration. These and other demographic parameters were used in a projection modelling to assess the probabilities of extinction of the colony under two scenarios of lower and higher food availability. Food availability (together with the age of individuals) influenced emigration probabilities, but not adult survival, which was estimated at 0.91 (s.e. = 0.02). When food was in shorter supply during the chick-rearing period, emigration was very high (ca. 65%) for younger breeders, although this rate decreased sharply with age. Probabilities of extinction were very high when food availability was low, and when environmental stochasticity was introduced, and only stochastic immigration from the outside seemed to prevent extinction. The results highlight the importance of dispersal processes in the population dynamics of long-lived organisms.     

Information processing in multigame environments modeling the evolution of sex via punctuated equilibria

Uncertain environments are properly described by probability distributions which, as usual, can be collapsed or conditioned into distributions with reduced uncertainty through the processing of environmental information. Organisms which force this collapse gain evolutionary advantage by being able to employ strategies in a known environment rather than in a merely probable one. The accrued benefit gained from processing information can be precisely quantified by comparing benefits returned using distributions prior to, and after collapse, and these often large and immediate benefits can amply justify the evolutionary cost of information processing systems. More importantly, the evolution of information processing systems must necessarily occur in a predictable evolutionary sequence from less complex to more complex. Practical applications include modeling the evolution of sex modeled here as a sequence from asexual reproduction, to single gene exchange, to gene packet exchange, to same species packet exchange, and finally to sexual reproduction, sexual selection, Red Queen contests and so on. Modeling this sequence requires extensions to game theory originally designed to model a single game, to allow the simultaneous operation of many games. This extension is called a multigame environment. The dynamical evolution of the development sequence shows punctuated equilibria.