Modeling and analysis of a predator-prey model with disease in the prey

A system of retarded functional differential equations is proposed as a predator-prey model with disease in the prey. Mathematical analyses of the model equations with regard to invariance of non-negativity, boundedness of solutions, nature of equilibria, permanence and global stability are analyzed. If the coefficient in conversing prey into predator k=k(0) is constant (independent of delay tau;, gestation period), we show that positive equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when time delay tau; is suitable small, while a loss of stability by a Hopf bifurcation can occur as the delay increases. If k=k(0)e(-dtau;) (d is the death rate of predator), numerical simulation suggests that time delay has both destabilizing and stabilizing effects, that is, positive equilibrium, if it exists, will become stable again for large time delay. A concluding discussion is then presented.     

Bifurcation analysis of a predator-prey model with predators using hawk and dove tactics

Most classical prey-predator models do not take into account the behavioural structure of the population. Usually, the predator and the prey populations are assumed to be homogeneous, i.e. all individuals behave in the same way. In this work, we shall take into account different tactics that predators can use for exploiting a common self-reproducing resource, the prey population. Predators fight together in order to keep or to have access to captured prey individuals. Individual predators can use two behavioural tactics when they encounter to dispute a prey, the classical hawk and dove tactics. We assume two different time scales. The fast time scale corresponds to the inter-specific searching and handling for the prey by the predators and the intra-specific fighting between the predators. The slow time scale corresponds to the (logistic) growth of the prey population and mortality of the predator. We take advantage of the two time scales to reduce the dimension of the model and to obtain an aggregated model that describes the dynamics of the total predator and prey densities at the slow time scale. We present the bifurcation analysis of the model and the effects of the different predator tactics on persistence and stability of the prey-predator community are discussed.     

The Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model with foraging-predation risk trade-offs

This article studies the effects of adaptive changes in predator and/or prey activities on the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey population dynamics. The model assumes the classical foraging-predation risk trade-offs: increased activity increases population growth rate, but it also increases mortality rate. The model considers three scenarios: prey only are adaptive, predators only are adaptive, and both species are adaptive. Under all these scenarios, the neutral stability of the classical Lotka-Volterra model is partially lost because the amplitude of maximum oscillation in species numbers is bounded, and the bound is independent of the initial population numbers. Moreover, if both prey and predators behave adaptively, the neutral stability can be completely lost, and a globally stable equilibrium would appear. This is because prey and/or predator switching leads to a piecewise constant prey (predator) isocline with a vertical (horizontal) part that limits the amplitude of oscillations in prey and predator numbers, exactly as suggested by Rosenzweig and MacArthur in their seminal work on graphical stability analysis of predator-prey systems. Prey and predator activities in a long-term run are calculated explicitly. This article shows that predictions based on short-term behavioral experiments may not correspond to long-term predictions when population dynamics are considered.     

Qualitative analysis of a predator-prey system with limit cycles

Fairly regular multiannual microtine rodent cycles are observed in boreal Fennoscandia. In the southern parts of Fennoscandia these multiannual cycles are not observed. It has been proposed that these cycles may be stabilized by generalist predation in the south.We show that if the half-saturation of the generalist predators is high compared to the number of small rodents the cycles are likely to be stabilized by generalist predation as observed. We give examples showing that if the half-saturation of the generalist predators is low compared to the number of small rodents, then multiple equilibria and multiple limit cycles may occur as the generalist predator density increases.     

A predator-prey model with infected prey

A predator-prey model with logistic growth in the prey is modified to include an SIS parasitic infection in the prey with infected prey being more vulnerable to predation. Thresholds are identified which determine when the predator population survives and when the disease remains endemic. For some parameter values the greater vulnerability of the infected prey allows the predator population to persist, when it would otherwise become extinct. Also the predation on the more vulnerable prey can cause the disease to die out, when it would remain endemic without the predators.     

The dynamics of two diffusively coupled predator-prey populations

I analyze the dynamics of predator and prey populations living in two patches. Within a patch the prey grow logistically and the predators have a Holling type II functional response. The two patches are coupled through predator migration. The system can be interpreted as a simple predator-prey metapopulation or as a spatially explicit predator-prey system. Asynchronous local dynamics are presumed by metapopulation theory. The main question I address is when synchronous and when asynchronous dynamics arise. Contrary to biological intuition, for very small migration rates the oscillations always synchronize. For intermediate migration rates the synchronous oscillations are unstable and I found periodic, quasi-periodic, and intermittently chaotic attractors with asynchronous dynamics. For large predator migration rates, attractors in the form of equilibria or limit cycles exist in which one of the patches contains no prey. The dynamical behavior of the system is described using bifurcation diagrams. The model shows that spatial predator-prey populations can be regulated through the interplay of local dynamics and migration.     

Taxis-driven pattern formation in a predator-prey model with group defense

We consider a reaction-diffusion(-taxis) predator-prey system with group defense in the prey. Taxis-driven instability can occur if the group defense influences the taxis rate (Wang et al., 2017). We elaborate that this mechanism is indeed possible but biologically unlikely to be responsible for pattern formation in such a system. Conversely, we show that patterns in excitable media such as spatiotemporal Sierpinski gasket patterns occur in the reaction-diffusion model as well as in the reaction-diffusion-taxis model. If group defense leads to a dome-shaped functional response, these patterns can have a rescue effect on the predator population in an invasion scenario. Preytaxis with prey repulsion at high prey densities can intensify this mechanism leading to taxis-induced persistence. In particular, taxis can increase parameter regimes of successful invasions and decrease minimum introduction areas necessary for a successful invasion. Last, we consider the mean period of the irregular oscillations. As a result of the underlying mechanism of the patterns, this period is two orders of magnitude smaller than the period in the nonspatial system. Counter-intuitively, faster-moving predators lead to lower oscillation periods and eventually to extinction of the predator population. The study does not only provide valuable insights on theoretical spatially explicit predator-prey models with group defense but also comparisons of ecological data with model simulations.     

Estimating a predator-prey dynamical model with the parameter cascades method

Summary .   Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used in ecology to describe the dynamical behavior of systems of interacting populations. However, systems of ODEs rarely provide quantitative solutions that are close to real field observations or experimental data because natural systems are subject to environmental and demographic noise and ecologists are often uncertain about the correct parameterization. In this article we introduce "parameter cascades" as an improved method to estimate ODE parameters such that the corresponding ODE solutions fit the real data well. This method is based on the modified penalized smoothing with the penalty defined by ODEs and a generalization of profiled estimation, which leads to fast estimation and good precision for ODE parameters from noisy data. This method is applied to a set of ODEs originally developed to describe an experimental predator–prey system that undergoes oscillatory dynamics. The new parameterization considerably improves the fit of the ODE model to the experimental data sets. At the same time, our method reveals that important structural assumptions that underlie the original ODE model are essentially correct. The mathematical formulations of the two nonlinear interaction terms (functional responses) that link the ODEs in the predator–prey model are validated by estimating the functional responses nonparametrically from the real data. We suggest two major applications of "parameter cascades" to ecological modeling: It can be used to estimate parameters when original data are noisy, missing, or when no reliable priori estimates are available; it can help to validate the structural soundness of the mathematical modeling approach.     

Bifurcation and stability analysis of a temperature-dependent mite predator-prey interaction model incorporating a prey refuge

The non-linear behavior of a differential equations-based predator-prey model, incorporating a spatial refuge protecting a consant proportion of prey and with temperature-dependent parameters chosen appropriately for a mite interaction on fruit trees, is examined using the numerical bifurcation code AUTO 86. The most significant result of this analysis is the existence of a temperature interval in which increasing the amount of refuge dynamically destabilizes the system; and on part of this interval the interaction is less likely to persist in that predator and prey minimum population densities are lower than when no refuge is available. It is also shown that increasing the amount of refuge can lead to population outbreaks due to the presence of multiple stable states. The ecological implications of a refuge are discussed with respect to the biological control of mite pests.     

An analysis of an ordinary differential equation model for a two-species predator-prey system with harvesting and stocking

An analysis is presented for a model of a two-species predator-prey system where each species can be harvested or stocked. Using methods from bifurcation theory the qualitative nature of the steady-state solutions is examined. The effect of harvesting and stocking rates and the prey carrying capacity is examined in detail.     

Effects of behavioral adaptation on a predator-prey model

The Volterra-Lotka predator-prey equations are modified so that the predator's ability to utilize the prey varies in proportion to the average number of encounters between the two species in the past. The behavior of this adaptive system is then described in terms of three parameters — the carrying capacity of the prey, the relative death rate of the predator, and the predator's memoryspan. The most stable situation is shown to occur when the carrying capacity of the prey is large, the predator's death rate is close to zero, and the predator is able to adapt quickly to changing levels of prey density.     

The computer-aided bifurcation analysis of predator-prey models

Mathematical analysis of dynamical systems can often benefit from accompanying numerical computations. This is particularly true if one has software (e.g. AUTO [6, 7]) capable of providing an automatic bifurcation analysis of such systems. Computer programs of this type now exist. We describe the application of such software to a predator-prey model. Phenomena that arise in this analysis include stationary bifurcations, limit points, Hopf bifurcations and secondary periodic bifurcations. A two-parameter numerical analysis leads quite naturally to the detection of higher order singularities.Supported in part by NSERC Canada (#4274) and FCAC Québec (#EQ1438)     

An algebraic analysis of the two state Markov model on tripod trees

Methods of phylogenetic inference use more and more complex models to generate trees from data. However, even simple models and their implications are not fully understood. Here, we investigate the two-state Markov model on a tripod tree, inferring conditions under which a given set of observations gives rise to such a model. This type of investigation has been undertaken before by several scientists from different fields of research. In contrast to other work we fully analyse the model, presenting conditions under which one can infer a model from the observation or at least get support for the tree-shaped interdependence of the leaves considered. We also present all conditions under which the results can be extended from tripod trees to quartet trees, a step necessary to reconstruct at least a topology. Apart from finding conditions under which such an extension works we discuss example cases for which such an extension does not work.     

Dynamics of a stochastic predator-prey model with habitat complexity and prey aggregation

Interplay between predator and prey is a complex process in ecosystems due to its nature. The population dynamics can be affected by many extrinsic and intrinsic factors. In this paper, we make an attempt to uncover the effects from environmental disturbances when populations are subject to habitat complexity and aggregation effect. We firstly propose a stochastic predator-prey model with habitat complexity and aggregation efficiency for prey. We then mathematically analyze the model, to demonstrate the existence, uniqueness and the stochastically ultimately boundedness of the global positive solution, and to establish sufficient conditions for the existence of ergodic stationary distribution of the solution. We also establish sufficient conditions under which either only predator population dies out or the entire predator-prey model becomes extinct. Our theoretical and numerical results indicate that: (1) the environmental noises are disadvantage for the survival of biological populations; (2) when the density of prey is greater than one, prey aggregation can heighten the capability of predator species to capture prey and reduce the effect of environmental fluctuations, while when the density of prey is less than one, the results are opposite; (3) habitat complexity is propitious to the survival of prey population and may seriously threaten the persistence of the predator population.     

The stage-structured predator-prey model and optimal harvesting policy

In this paper, we establish a mathematical model of two species with stage structure and the relation of predator-prey, to obtain the necessary and sufficient condition for the permanence of two species and the extinction of one species or two species. We also obtain the optimal harvesting policy and the threshold of the harvesting for sustainable development.     

Effects of prey refuges on a predator-prey model with a class of functional responses: The role of refuges

In this paper, the effects of refuges used by prey on a predator-prey interaction with a class of functional responses are studied by using the analytical approach. The refuges are considered as two types: a constant proportion of prey and a fixed number of prey using refuges. We will evaluate the effects with regard to the local stability of the interior equilibrium point, the values of the equilibrium density and the long-term dynamics of the interacting populations. The results show that the effects of refuges used by prey increase the equilibrium density of prey population while decrease that of predators. It is also proved that the effects of refuges can stabilize the interior equilibrium point of the considered model, and destabilize it under a very restricted set of conditions which is disagreement with previous results in this field.     

Encounters in predator-prey systems: a simple discrete model

Predator-prey systems are often described by exploitation models. These models can mimic experimental data very accurately, but it is sometimes difficult to realize the relationships between the models and the behavior of individual predator and prey animals. A simple discrete model is proposed here that tries to elucidate the connections between: the animals' movements, the predator/prey encounters; and the dynamics in the system as globally represented by the exploitation models. In these models, the term "area of discovery" plays an essential role. This term is shown to be a predictable coefficient that is composed of measurable physical properties of the analyzed predator-prey system. The model takes into account that predators and prey in experimental systems often do not search randomly but prefer some parts of the test area. The model is applied to the mite system Phytoseiulus persimilis/Tetranychus urticae under simple artificial conditions.     

Spatiotemporal dynamics of two generic predator-prey models

We present the analysis of two reaction-diffusion systems modelling predator-prey interactions, where the predator displays the Holling type II functional response, and in the absence of predators, the prey growth is logistic. The local analysis is based on the application of qualitative theory for ordinary differential equations and dynamical systems, while the global well-posedness depends on invariant sets and differential inequalities. The key result is an L (∞)-stability estimate, which depends on a polynomial growth condition for the kinetics. The existence of an a priori L ( p )-estimate, uniform in time, for all p≥1, implies L (∞)-uniform bounds, given any nonnegative L (∞)-initial data. The applicability of the L (∞)-estimate to general reaction-diffusion systems is discussed, and how the continuous results can be mimicked in the discrete case, leading to stability estimates for a Galerkin finite-element method with piecewise linear continuous basis functions. In order to verify the biological wave phenomena of solutions, numerical results are presented in two-space dimensions, which have interesting ecological implications as they demonstrate that solutions can be 'trapped' in an invariant region of phase space.