Rates of climatic niche evolution are correlated with species richness in a large and ecologically diverse radiation of songbirds

By employing a recently inferred phylogeny and museum occurrence records, we examine the relationship of ecological niche evolution to diversification in the largest family of songbirds, the tanagers (Thraupidae). We test whether differences in species numbers in the major clades of tanagers can be explained by differences in rate of climatic niche evolution. We develop a methodological pipeline to process and filter occurrence records. We find that, of the ecological variables examined, clade richness is higher in clades with higher climatic niche rate, and that this rate is also greater for clades that occupy a greater extent of climatic space. Additionally, we find that more speciose clades contain species with narrower niche breadths, suggesting that clades in which species are more successful at diversifying across climatic gradients have greater potential for speciation or are more buffered from the risk of extinction.     

Niche width impacts vertebrate diversification

Aim The size of the climatic niche of a species is a major factor determining its distribution and evolution. In particular, it has been proposed that niche width should be associated with the rate of species diversification. Here, we test whether species niche width affects the speciation and extinction rates of three main clades of vertebrates: amphibians, mammals and birds. Location Global. Methods We obtained the time‐calibrated phylogenies, IUCN conservation status, species distribution maps and climatic data for 2340 species of amphibians, 4563 species of mammals and 9823 species of birds. We computed the niche width for each species as the mean annual temperature across the species range. We estimated speciation, extinction and transition rates associated with lineages with either narrow (specialist) or wide (generalist) niches using phylogeny‐based birth–death models. We also tested if current conservation status was correlated with the niche width of species. Results We found higher net diversification rates in specialist species than in generalist species. This result was explained by both higher speciation rates (for the three taxonomic groups) and lower extinction rates (for mammals and birds only) in specialist than in generalist species. In contrast, current specialist species tended to be more threatened than generalist species. Main conclusions Our diversification analysis shows that the width of the climatic niche is strongly associated with diversification rates and may thus be a crucial factor for understanding the emergence of diversity patterns in vertebrates. The striking difference between our diversification results and current conservation status suggests that the current extinction process may be different from extinction rates estimated from the whole history of the group.     

The molecular phylogenetic signature of clades in decline

Molecular phylogenies have been used to study the diversification of many clades. However, current methods for inferring diversification dynamics from molecular phylogenies ignore the possibility that clades may be decreasing in diversity, despite the fact that the fossil record shows this to be the case for many groups. Here we investigate the molecular phylogenetic signature of decreasing diversity using the most widely used statistic for inferring diversity dynamics from molecular phylogenies, the γ statistic. We show that if a clade is in decline its molecular phylogeny may show evidence of the decrease in the diversification rate that occurred between its diversification and decline phases. The ability to detect the change in diversification rate depends largely on the ratio of the speciation rates of the diversification and decline phases, the higher the ratio the stronger the signal of the change in diversification rate. Consequently, molecular phylogenies of clades in relative rapid decline do not carry a signature of their decreasing diversification. Further, the signal of the change in diversification rate, if present, declines as the diversity drop. Unfortunately, the molecular signature of clades in decline is the same as the signature produced by diversity dependent diversification. Given this similarity, and the inability of current methods to detect declining diversity, it is likely that some of the extant clades that show a decrease in diversification rate, currently interpreted as evidence for diversity dependent diversification, are in fact in decline. Unless methods can be developed that can discriminate between the different modes of diversification, specifically diversity dependent diversification and declining diversity, we will need the fossil record, or data from some other source, to distinguish between these very different diversity trajectories.     

The shape and temporal dynamics of phylogenetic trees arising from geographic speciation

Phylogenetic trees often depart from the expectations of stochastic models, exhibiting imbalance in diversification among lineages and slowdowns in the rate of lineage accumulation through time. Such departures have led to a widespread perception that ecological differences among species or adaptation and subsequent niche filling are required to explain patterns of diversification. However, a key element missing from models of diversification is the geographical context of speciation and extinction. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit model of geographic range evolution and cladogenesis, where speciation arises via vicariance or peripatry, and explore the effects of these processes on patterns of diversification. We compare the results with those observed in 41 reconstructed avian trees. Our model shows that nonconstant rates of speciation and extinction are emergent properties of the apportioning of geographic ranges that accompanies speciation. The dynamics of diversification exhibit wide variation, depending on the mode of speciation, tendency for range expansion, and rate of range evolution. By varying these parameters, the model is able to capture many, but not all, of the features exhibited by birth-death trees and extant bird clades. Under scenarios with relatively stable geographic ranges, strong slowdowns in diversification rates are produced, with faster rates of range dynamics leading to constant or accelerating rates of apparent diversification. A peripatric model of speciation with stable ranges also generates highly unbalanced trees typical of bird phylogenies but fails to produce realistic range size distributions among the extant species. Results most similar to those of a birth-death process are reached under a peripatric speciation scenario with highly volatile range dynamics. Taken together, our results demonstrate that considering the geographical context of speciation and extinction provides a more conservative null model of diversification and offers a very different perspective on the phylogenetic patterns expected in the absence of ecology.     

ECOLOGICAL CAUSES OF DECELERATING DIVERSIFICATION IN CARNIVORAN MAMMALS

Clade diversification is a central topic in macroevolutionary studies. Recently, it has been shown that diversification rates appear to decelerate over time in many clades. What causes this deceleration remains unclear, but it has been proposed that competition for limited resources between sympatric, ecologically similar species slows diversification. Employing carnivoran mammals as a model system, we test this hypothesis using a comprehensive time‐calibrated phylogeny. We also explore several conceptually related explanations including limited geographic area and limited rates of niche evolution. We find that diversification slowdowns are strong in carnivorans. Surprisingly, these slowdowns are independent of geographic range overlap between related species and are also decoupled from rates of niche evolution, suggesting that slowdowns are unrelated to competition and niche filling. When controlling for the effects of clade diversity, diversification slowdowns appear independent of geographic area. There is a significant effect of clade diversity on diversification slowdowns, but simulations show that this relationship may arise as a statistical artifact (i.e., greater clade diversity increases the ability of the gamma statistic to refute constant diversification). Overall, our results emphasize the need to test hypotheses about the causes of diversification slowdowns with ecological data, rather than assuming ecological processes from phylogenies alone.     

Ecological controls of mammalian diversification vary with phylogenetic scale

Aim

Diversity dynamics remain controversial. Here, we examine these dynamics, together with the ecological factors governing them, across mammalian clades of different ages and sizes, representing different phylogenetic scales. Specifically, we investigate whether the dynamics are bounded or unbounded, biotically or abiotically regulated, stochastic or ecologically deterministic.

Location

Worldwide.

Time period

150 Myr.

Major taxa studied

Mammals.

Methods

Integrating the newest phylogenetic and distributional data by means of several distinct methods, we study the ecology of mammalian diversification within a predictive framework, inspired by classic theory. Specifically, we evaluate the effects of several classes of factors, including climate, topography, geographical area, rates of climatic‐niche evolution, and regional coexistence between related and unrelated species. Next, we determine whether the relative effects of these factors change systematically across clades representing different phylogenetic scales.

Results

We find that young clades diversify at approximately constant rates, medium‐sized clades show diversification slowdowns, and large clades are mostly saturated, suggesting that diversification dynamics change as clades grow and accumulate species. We further find that diversification slowdowns intensify with the degree of regional coexistence between related species, presumably because increased competition for regional resources suppresses the diversification process. The richness at which clades eventually saturate depends on climate; clades residing in tropical climates saturate at low richness, implying that niches become progressively densely packed towards the tropics.

Main conclusions

The diversification process is influenced by a variety of ecological factors, whose relative effects change across phylogenetic scales, producing scale‐dependent dynamics. Different segments of the same phylogeny might therefore support seemingly conflicting results (bounded or unbounded, biotically or abiotically regulated, stochastic or ecologically deterministic diversification), which might have contributed to several outstanding controversies in the field. These conflicts can be reconciled, however, when accounting for phylogenetic scale, which might, in turn, produce a more integrated understanding of global diversity dynamics.     

EXTINCTION DURING EVOLUTIONARY RADIATIONS: RECONCILING THE FOSSIL RECORD WITH MOLECULAR PHYLOGENIES

Recent application of time‐varying birth–death models to molecular phylogenies suggests that a decreasing diversification rate can only be observed if there was a decreasing speciation rate coupled with extremely low or no extinction. However, from a paleontological perspective, zero extinction rates during evolutionary radiations seem unlikely. Here, with a more comprehensive set of computer simulations, we show that substantial extinction can occur without erasing the signal of decreasing diversification rate in a molecular phylogeny. We also find, in agreement with the previous work, that a decrease in diversification rate cannot be observed in a molecular phylogeny with an increasing extinction rate alone. Further, we find that the ability to observe decreasing diversification rates in molecular phylogenies is controlled (in part) by the ratio of the initial speciation rate (Lambda) to the extinction rate (Mu) at equilibrium (the LiMe ratio), and not by their absolute values. Here we show in principle, how estimates of initial speciation rates may be calculated using both the fossil record and the shape of lineage through time plots derived from molecular phylogenies. This is important because the fossil record provides more reliable estimates of equilibrium extinction rates than initial speciation rates.     

Diet and Diversification in the Evolution of Coral Reef Fishes

The disparity in species richness among evolutionary lineages is one of the oldest and most intriguing issues in evolutionary biology. Although geographical factors have been traditionally thought to promote speciation, recent studies have underscored the importance of ecological interactions as one of the main drivers of diversification. Here, we test if differences in species richness of closely related lineages match predictions based on the concept of density-dependent diversification. As radiation progresses, ecological niche-space would become increasingly saturated, resulting in fewer opportunities for speciation. To assess this hypothesis, we tested whether reef fish niche shifts toward usage of low-quality food resources (i.e. relatively low energy/protein per unit mass), such as algae, detritus, sponges and corals are accompanied by rapid net diversification. Using available molecular information, we reconstructed phylogenies of four major reef fish clades (Acanthuroidei, Chaetodontidae, Labridae and Pomacentridae) to estimate the timing of radiations of their subclades. We found that the evolution of species-rich clades was associated with a switch to low quality food in three of the four clades analyzed, which is consistent with a density-dependent model of diversification. We suggest that ecological opportunity may play an important role in understanding the diversification of reef-fish lineages.     

Ecological opportunity alters the timing and shape of adaptive radiation

The uneven distribution of diversity is a conspicuous phenomenon across the tree of life. Ecological opportunity is a prominent catalyst of adaptive radiation and therefore may alter patterns of diversification. We evaluated the distribution of shifts in diversification rates across the cichlid phylogeny and the distribution of major clades across phylogenetic space. We also tested if ecological opportunity influenced these patterns. Colonization‐associated ecological opportunity altered the tempo and mode of diversification during the adaptive radiation of cichlid fishes. Clades that arose following colonization events diversified faster than other clades. Speciation rate shifts were nonrandomly distributed across the phylogeny such that they were disproportionally concentrated around nodes that corresponded with colonization events (i.e., of continents, river basins, or lakes). Young clades tend to expand faster than older clades; however, colonization‐associated ecological opportunity accentuated this pattern. There was an interaction between clade age and ecological opportunity that explained the trajectory of clades through phylogenetic space over time. Our results indicate that ecological opportunities afforded by continental and ecosystem‐scale colonization events explain the dramatic speciation rate heterogeneity and phylogenetic imbalance that arose during the evolutionary history of cichlid fishes.     

Estimating diversification rates from phylogenetic information

Patterns of species richness reflect the balance between speciation and extinction over the evolutionary history of life. These processes are influenced by the size and geographical complexity of regions, conditions of the environment, and attributes of individuals and species. Diversity within clades also depends on age and thus the time available for accumulating species. Estimating rates of diversification is key to understanding how these factors have shaped patterns of species richness. Several approaches to calculating both relative and absolute rates of speciation and extinction within clades are based on phylogenetic reconstructions of evolutionary relationships. As the size and quality of phylogenies increases, these approaches will find broader application. However, phylogeny reconstruction fosters a perceptual bias of continual increase in species richness, and the analysis of primarily large clades produces a data selection bias. Recognizing these biases will encourage the development of more realistic models of diversification and the regulation of species richness.     

Ecology predicts large-scale patterns of phylogenetic diversification in birds

One of the most striking patterns in evolutionary biology is that clades may differ greatly in the number of species they contain. Numerous hypotheses have been put forward to explain this phenomenon, and several have been tested using phylogenetic methods. Remarkably, however, all such tests performed to date have been characterized by modest explanatory power, which has generated an interest in explanations stressing the importance of random processes. Here we make use of phylogenetic methods to test whether ecological variables, typically ignored in previous models, may explain phylogenetic tree imbalance in birds. We show that diversification rate possesses an intermediate phylogenetic signal across families. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we then build a multipredictor model that explains more than 50% of the variation in diversification rate among clades. High annual dispersal is identified as the strongest predictor of high rates of diversification. In addition, high diversification rate is strongly associated with feeding generalization. In all but one instance, these key findings remain qualitatively unchanged when we use an alternative phylogeny and methodology and when small clades, containing five species or less, are excluded. Taken together, these results suggest that large-scale patterns in avian diversification can be explained by variation in intrinsic biology.     

Developmental life history is associated with variation in rates of climatic niche evolution in a salamander adaptive radiation*

Rates of climatic niche evolution vary widely across the tree of life and are strongly associated with rates of diversification among clades. However, why the climatic niche evolves more rapidly in some clades than others remains unclear. Variation in life history traits often plays a key role in determining the environmental conditions under which species can survive, and therefore, could impact the rate at which lineages can expand in available climatic niche space. Here, we explore the relationships among life-history variation, climatic niche breadth, and rates of climatic niche evolution. We reconstruct a phylogeny for the genus Desmognathus, an adaptive radiation of salamanders distributed across eastern North America, based on nuclear and mitochondrial genes. Using this phylogeny, we estimate rates of climatic niche evolution for species with long, short, and no aquatic larval stage. Rates of climatic niche evolution are unrelated to the mean climatic niche breadth of species with different life histories. Instead, we find that the evolution of a short larval period promotes greater exploration of climatic space, leading to increased rates of climatic niche evolution across species having this trait. We propose that morphological and physiological differences associated with variation in larval stage length underlie the heterogeneous ability of lineages to explore climatic niche space. Rapid rates of climatic niche evolution among species with short larval periods were an important dimension of the clade's adaptive radiation and likely contributed to the rapid rate of lineage accumulation following the evolution of an aquatic life history in this clade. Our results show how variation in a key life-history trait can constrain or promote divergence of the climatic niche, leading to variation in rates of climatic niche evolution among species.     

Density-dependent cladogenesis in birds

A characteristic signature of adaptive radiation is a slowing of the rate of speciation toward the present. On the basis of molecular phylogenies, studies of single clades have frequently found evidence for a slowdown in diversification rate and have interpreted this as evidence for density dependent speciation. However, we demonstrated via simulation that large clades are expected to show stronger slowdowns than small clades, even if the probability of speciation and extinction remains constant through time. This is a consequence of exponential growth: clades, which, by chance, diversify at above the average rate early in their history, will tend to be large. They will also tend to regress back to the average diversification rate later on, and therefore show a slowdown. We conducted a meta-analysis of the distribution of speciation events through time, focusing on sequence-based phylogenies for 45 clades of birds. Thirteen of the 23 clades (57%) that include more than 20 species show significant slowdowns. The high frequency of slowdowns observed in large clades is even more extreme than expected under a purely stochastic constant-rate model, but is consistent with the adaptive radiation model. Taken together, our data strongly support a model of density-dependent speciation in birds, whereby speciation slows as ecological opportunities and geographical space place limits on clade growth.     

Patterns of endemism and species richness in Malagasy cophyline frogs support a key role of mountainous areas for speciation

Cophyline narrow-mouthed frogs (Anura: Microhylidae) are a diverse endemic radiation of Madagascar. Cophylines contain a high proportion of range restricted species and constitute a good model system to understand patterns of evolutionary diversification in tropical ecosystems. We combine spatial and phylogenetic analyses for a near-complete taxon sample to test competing explanations for patterns of species richness (SR) and endemism. Our reconstruction of the phylogeny of cophylines indicates the presence of 22 new species and several instances of nonmonophyly. We found a strong historical signal in current cophyline ranges indicating a high degree of spatial niche conservatism in clade diversification, with clades occurring in the North of Madagascar constituting the most derived in the phylogeny. We identified six positively correlated centers of SR and endemism that can neither be explained by stochastic models such as elevational or latitudinal mid-domain effect, nor by low-elevation river catchments. Instead, the locations of these centers in areas spanning a high altitudinal range in combination with specific climatic parameters support a key role of mountainous areas for speciation of these anurans, although we cannot exclude an influence of habitat loss due to human impact. High conservation priority is ascribed to these areas.     

CAN PARALLEL DIVERSIFICATION OCCUR IN SYMPATRY? REPEATED PATTERNS OF BODY‐SIZE EVOLUTION IN COEXISTING CLADES OF NORTH AMERICAN SALAMANDERS

A classic paradigm in evolutionary biology is that geographically isolated clades inhabiting similar selective regimes will diversify to create similar sets of phenotypes in different locations (e.g., similar stickleback species in different lakes, similar Anolis ecomorphs on different islands). Such parallel radiations are not generally expected to occur in sympatry because the available niche space would be filled by whichever clade is diversified first. Here, we document a very different pattern, the parallel evolution of similar body-size morphs in three sympatric clades of plethodontid salamanders ( Desmognathus, Plethodon, Spelerpinae) in eastern North America. Using a comprehensive, time-calibrated phylogeny of North American plethodontids from nuclear and mitochondrial DNA sequences, we show that these three clades have undergone replicated patterns of evolution in body size and that this parallel diversification occurred in broad-scale sympatry. At the local scale, we find that coexisting species from these clades are more similar in body size than expected under a null model in which species are randomly assembled into communities. These patterns are particularly surprising in that competition is known to be important in driving phenotypic diversification and limiting local coexistence of similar-sized species within these clades. Although parallel diversification of sympatric clades may seem counterintuitive, we discuss several ecological and evolutionary factors that may allow the phenomenon to occur.     

Signatures of random and selective mass extinctions in phylogenetic tree balance

Current models of diversification with evolving speciation rates have trouble mimicking the extreme imbalance seen in estimated phylogenies. However, these models have not incorporated extinction. Here, we report on a simple simulation model that includes heritable and evolving speciation rates coupled with mass extinctions, Random (but not selective) mass extinctions, coupled with evolving among-lineage variation in speciation rates, increase imbalance of postrecovery clades. Thus, random mass extinctions are plausible contributors to the imbalance of modern clades. Paleontological evidence suggests that mass extinctions are often random with respect to ecological and morphological traits, consistent with our simulations. In contrast, evidence that the current anthropogenic mass extinction is phylogenetically selective suggests that the current extinction episode may be qualitatively different from past ones in the way it reshapes future biotas.     

Diversification on an ecologically constrained adaptive landscape

We used phylogenetic analysis of body-size ecomorphs in a crustacean species complex to gain insight into how spatial complexity of ecological processes generates and maintains biological diversity. Studies of geographically widespread species of Hyalella amphipods show that phenotypic evolution is tightly constrained in a manner consistent with adaptive responses to alternative predation regimes. A molecular phylogeny indicates that evolution of Hyalella ecomorphs is characterized by parallel evolution and by phenotypic stasis despite substantial levels of underlying molecular change. The phylogeny suggests that species diversification sometimes occurs by niche shifts, and sometimes occurs without a change in niche. Moreover, diversification in the Hyalella ecomorphs has involved the repeated evolution of similar phenotypic forms that exist in similar ecological settings, a hallmark of adaptive evolution. The evolutionary stasis observed in clades separated by substantial genetic divergence, but existing in similar habitats, is also suggestive of stabilizing natural selection acting to constrain phenotypic evolution within narrow bounds. We interpret the observed decoupling of genetic and phenotypic diversification in terms of adaptive radiation on an ecologically constrained adaptive landscape, and suggest that ecological constraints, perhaps acting together with genetic and functional constraints, may explain the parallel evolution and evolutionary stasis inferred by the phylogeny.     

Ecological and geological processes impacting speciation modes drive the formation of wide-range disjunctions within tribe Putorieae (Rubiaceae)

Wide-range geographically discontinuous distributions have long intrigued scientists. We explore the role of ecology, geology, and dispersal in the formation of these large-scale disjunctions, using the angiosperm tribe Putorieae (Rubiaceae) as a case study. From DNA sequences of nuclear ITS and six plastid markers, we inferred a phylogeny with 65% of all known Putorieae species. Divergence times, ancestral ranges, and diversification rate shifts were then estimated using Bayesian inference. We further explored species climatic tolerances and performed ancestral niche reconstruction to discriminate among alternative speciation modes, including geographical and ecological vicariance, and ecogeographical, ecological, and dispersal-mediated speciation. As a result, we identified seven major clades in Putorieae, some of which exhibit striking geographical disjunctions, matching the Rand Flora pattern, with sister species in the Canary Islands andeastern and southern Africa. Initial diversification within the tribe occurred in the early Miocene, coincident with a period of climate warming; however, most clades diverged within the last 10 Myr. Aridification and high extinction rates, coupled with ecological vicariance, explain the oldest disjunctions. Adaptation to new environmental conditions, after allopatry, is observed in several clades. Dispersal, either long-distance or via corridors made available by mountain uplift, is behind the most recent disjunctions. Some of these events were followed by ecological speciation and rapid diversification, with species becoming adapted to xeric or increasingly colder continental climates. We show that an integrative approach may help discriminate among speciation modes invoked to explain disjunctions at macroevolutionary time scales, even when extinction has erased the signature of past events.     

Phylogeny of the tribe Indigofereae (Leguminosae-Papilionoideae): Geographically structured more in succulent-rich and temperate settings than in grass-rich environments

This analysis goes beyond many phylogenies in exploring how phylogenetic structure imposed by morphology, ecology, and geography reveals useful evolutionary data. A comprehensive range of such diversity is evaluated within tribe Indigofereae and outgroups from sister tribes. A combined data set of 321 taxa (over one-third of the tribe) by 80 morphological characters, 833 aligned nuclear ribosomal ITS/5.8S sites, and an indel data set of 33 characters was subjected to parsimony analysis. Notable results include the Madagascan dry forest Disynstemon resolved as sister to tribe Indigofereae, and all species of the large genus Indigofera comprise just four main clades, each diagnosable by morphological synapomorphies and ecological and geographical predilections. These results suggest niche conservation (ecology) and dispersal limitation (geography) are important processes rendering signature shapes to the Indigofereae phylogeny in different biomes. Clades confined to temperate and succulent-rich biomes are more dispersal limited and have more geographical phylogenetic structure than those inhabiting tropical grass-rich vegetation. The African arid corridor, particularly the Namib center of endemism, harbors many of the oldest Indigofera lineages. A rates analysis of nucleotide substitutions confirms that the ages of the oldest crown clades are mostly younger than 16 Ma, implicating dispersal in explaining the worldwide distribution of the tribe.     

Bats, clocks, and rocks: diversification patterns in Chiroptera

Identifying nonrandom clade diversification is a critical first step toward understanding the evolutionary processes underlying any radiation and how best to preserve future phylogenetic diversity. However, differences in diversification rates have not been quantitatively assessed for the majority of groups because of the lack of necessary analytical tools (e.g., complete species-level phylogenies, estimates of divergence times, and robust statistics which incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty and test appropriate null models of clade growth). Here, for the first time, we investigate diversification rate heterogeneity in one of the largest groups studied thus far, the bats (Mammalia: Chiroptera). We use a recent, robust statistical approach (whole-tree likelihood-based relative rate tests) on complete dated species-level supertree phylogenies. As has been demonstrated previously for most other groups, among-lineage diversification rate within bats has not been constant. However, we show that bat diversification is more heterogeneous than in other mammalian clades thus far studied. The whole-tree likelihood-based relative rates tests suggest that clades within the families Phyllostomidae and Molossidae underwent a number of significant changes in relative diversification rate. There is also some evidence for rate shifts within Pteropodidae, Emballonuridae, Rhinolophidae, Hipposideridae, and Vespertilionidae, but the significance of these shifts depends on polytomy resolution within each family. Diversification rate in bats has also not been constant, with the largest diversification rate shifts occurring 30-50 million years ago, a time overlapping with the greatest number of shifts in flowering plant diversification rates.