Bayesian analysis of linkage between genetic markers and quantitative trait loci. II. Combining prior knowledge with experimental evidence

Summary A Bayesian method was developed for identifying genetic markers linked to quantitative trait loci (QTL) by analyzing data from daughter or granddaughter designs and single markers or marker pairs. Traditional methods may yield unrealistic results because linkage tests depend on number of markers and QTL gene effects associated with selected markers are overestimated. The Bayesian or posterior probability of linkage combines information from a daughter or granddaughter design with the prior probability of linkage between a marker locus and a QTL. If the posterior probability exceeds a certain quantity, linkage is declared. Upon linkage acceptance, Bayesian estimates of marker-QTL recombination rate and QTL gene effects and frequencies are obtained. The Bayesian estimates of QTL gene effects account for different amounts of information by shrinking information from data toward the mean or mode of a prior exponential distribution of gene effects. Computation of the Bayesian analysis is feasible. Exact results are given for biallelic QTL, and extensions to multiallelic QTL are suggested.     

Bayesian methods for quantitative trait loci mapping based on model selection: approximate analysis using the Bayesian information criterion.

We describe an approximate method for the analysis of quantitative trait loci (QTL) based on model selection from multiple regression models with trait values regressed on marker genotypes, using a modification of the easily calculated Bayesian information criterion to estimate the posterior probability of models with various subsets of markers as variables. The BIC-delta criterion, with the parameter delta increasing the penalty for additional variables in a model, is further modified to incorporate prior information, and missing values are handled by multiple imputation. Marginal probabilities for model sizes are calculated, and the posterior probability of nonzero model size is interpreted as the posterior probability of existence of a QTL linked to one or more markers. The method is demonstrated on analysis of associations between wood density and markers on two linkage groups in Pinus radiata. Selection bias, which is the bias that results from using the same data to both select the variables in a model and estimate the coefficients, is shown to be a problem for commonly used non-Bayesian methods for QTL mapping, which do not average over alternative possible models that are consistent with the data.     

Simultaneous fine mapping of multiple closely linked quantitative trait Loci using combined linkage disequilibrium and linkage with a general pedigree

Within a small region (e.g., <10 cM), there can be multiple quantitative trait loci (QTL) underlying phenotypes of a trait. Simultaneous fine mapping of closely linked QTL needs an efficient tool to remove confounded shade effects among QTL within such a small region. We propose a variance component method using combined linkage disequilibrium (LD) and linkage information and a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for model selection. QTL identity-by-descent (IBD) coefficients between individuals are estimated by a hybrid MCMC combining the random walk and the meiosis Gibbs sampler. These coefficients are used in a mixed linear model and an empirical Bayesian procedure combines residual maximum likelihood (REML) to estimate QTL effects and a reversible jump MCMC that samples the number of QTL and the posterior QTL intensities across the tested region. Note that two MCMC processes are used, i.e., an (internal) MCMC for IBD estimation and an (external) MCMC for model selection. In a simulation study, the use of the multiple-QTL model clearly removes the shade effects between three closely linked QTL located at 1.125, 3.875, and 7.875 cM across the region of 10 cM, using 40 markers at 0.25-cM intervals. It is shown that the use of combined LD and linkage information gives much more useful information compared to using linkage information alone for both single- and multiple-QTL analyses. When using a lower marker density (11 markers at 1-cM intervals), the signal of the second QTL can disappear. Extreme values of past effective size (resulting in extreme levels of LD) decrease the mapping accuracy.     

Mapping quantitative trait loci in tetraploid populations

Knowledge of quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping in polyploids is almost void, albeit many exquisite strategies of QTL mapping have been proposed and extensive investigations have been carried out in diploid animals and plants. In this paper we develop a simple algorithm which uses an iteratively reweighted least square method to map QTLs in tetraploid populations. The method uses information from all markers in a linkage group to infer the probability distribution of QTL genotype under the assumption of random chromosome segregation. Unlike QTL mapping in diploid species, here we estimate and test the compound 'gametic effect', which consists of the composite 'genic effect' of alleles and higher-order gene interactions. The validity and efficiency of the proposed method are investigated through simulation studies. Results show that the method can successfully locate QTLs and separates different sources (e.g. additive and dominance) of variance components contributed by the QTLs.     

An improved procedure of mapping a quantitative trait locus via the EM algorithm using posterior probabilities

Mapping a locus controlling a quantitative genetic trait (e.g. blood pressure) to a specific genomic region is of considerable contemporary interest. Data on the quantitative trait under consideration and several codominant genetic markers with known genomic locations are collected from members of families and statistically analysed to estimate the recombination fraction, θ, between the putative quantitative trait locus and a genetic marker. One of the major complications in estimating θ for a quantitative trait in humans is the lack of haplotype information on members of families. We have devised a computationally simple two-stage method of estimation of θ in the absence of haplotypic information using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. In the first stage, parameters of the quantitative trait locus (QTL) are estimated on the basis of data of a sample of unrelated individuals and a Bayes’s rule is used to classify each parent into a QTL genotypic class. In the second stage, we have proposed an EM algorithm for obtaining the maximum-likelihood estimate of θ based on data of informative families (which are identified upon inferring parental QTL genotypes performed in the first stage). The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether, instead of using genotypically ‘classified’ data of parents, the use of posterior probabilities of QT genotypes of parents at the second stage yields better estimators. We show, using simulated data, that the proposed procedure using posterior probabilities is statistically more efficient than our earlier classification procedure, although it is computationally heavier.     

QTL fine mapping with Bayes C(π): a simulation study

Background

Accurate QTL mapping is a prerequisite in the search for causative mutations. Bayesian genomic selection models that analyse many markers simultaneously should provide more accurate QTL detection results than single-marker models. Our objectives were to (a) evaluate by simulation the influence of heritability, number of QTL and number of records on the accuracy of QTL mapping with Bayes Cπ and Bayes C; (b) estimate the QTL status (homozygous vs. heterozygous) of the individuals analysed. This study focussed on the ten largest detected QTL, assuming they are candidates for further characterization.

Methods

Our simulations were based on a true dairy cattle population genotyped for 38 277 phased markers. Some of these markers were considered biallelic QTL and used to generate corresponding phenotypes. Different numbers of records (4387 and 1500), heritability values (0.1, 0.4 and 0.7) and numbers of QTL (10, 100 and 1000) were studied. QTL detection was based on the posterior inclusion probability for individual markers, or on the sum of the posterior inclusion probabilities for consecutive markers, estimated using Bayes C or Bayes Cπ. The QTL status of the individuals was derived from the contrast between the sums of the SNP allelic effects of their chromosomal segments.

Results

The proportion of markers with null effect (π) frequently did not reach convergence, leading to poor results for Bayes Cπ in QTL detection. Fixing π led to better results. Detection of the largest QTL was most accurate for medium to high heritability, for low to moderate numbers of QTL, and with a large number of records. The QTL status was accurately inferred when the distribution of the contrast between chromosomal segment effects was bimodal.

Conclusions

QTL detection is feasible with Bayes C. For QTL detection, it is recommended to use a large dataset and to focus on highly heritable traits and on the largest QTL. QTL statuses were inferred based on the distribution of the contrast between chromosomal segment effects.     

Derivation of the shrinkage estimates of quantitative trait locus effects

The shrinkage estimate of a quantitative trait locus (QTL) effect is the posterior mean of the QTL effect when a normal prior distribution is assigned to the QTL. This note gives the derivation of the shrinkage estimate under the multivariate linear model. An important lemma regarding the posterior mean of a normal likelihood combined with a normal prior is introduced. The lemma is then used to derive the Bayesian shrinkage estimates of the QTL effects.     

Bayesian mapping of quantitative trait loci under the identity-by-descent-based variance component model

Variance component analysis of quantitative trait loci (QTL) is an important strategy of genetic mapping for complex traits in humans. The method is robust because it can handle an arbitrary number of alleles with arbitrary modes of gene actions. The variance component method is usually implemented using the proportion of alleles with identity-by-descent (IBD) shared by relatives. As a result, information about marker linkage phases in the parents is not required. The method has been studied extensively under either the maximum-likelihood framework or the sib-pair regression paradigm. However, virtually all investigations are limited to normally distributed traits under a single QTL model. In this study, we develop a Bayes method to map multiple QTL. We also extend the Bayesian mapping procedure to identify QTL responsible for the variation of complex binary diseases in humans under a threshold model. The method can also treat the number of QTL as a parameter and infer its posterior distribution. We use the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo method to infer the posterior distributions of parameters of interest. The Bayesian mapping procedure ends with an estimation of the joint posterior distribution of the number of QTL and the locations and variances of the identified QTL. Utilities of the method are demonstrated using a simulated population consisting of multiple full-sib families.     

Poor performance of bootstrap confidence intervals for the location of a quantitative trait locus

The aim of many genetic studies is to locate the genomic regions (called quantitative trait loci, QTL) that contribute to variation in a quantitative trait (such as body weight). Confidence intervals for the locations of QTL are particularly important for the design of further experiments to identify the gene or genes responsible for the effect. Likelihood support intervals are the most widely used method to obtain confidence intervals for QTL location, but the nonparametric bootstrap has also been recommended. Through extensive computer simulation, we show that bootstrap confidence intervals behave poorly and so should not be used in this context. The profile likelihood (or LOD curve) for QTL location has a tendency to peak at genetic markers, and so the distribution of the maximum-likelihood estimate (MLE) of QTL location has the unusual feature of point masses at genetic markers; this contributes to the poor behavior of the bootstrap. Likelihood support intervals and approximate Bayes credible intervals, on the other hand, are shown to behave appropriately.     

Improved confidence intervals in quantitative trait loci mapping by permutation bootstrapping

The nonparametric bootstrap approach is known to be suitable for calculating central confidence intervals for the locations of quantitative trait loci (QTL). However, the distribution of the bootstrap QTL position estimates along the chromosome is peaked at the positions of the markers and is not tailed equally. This results in conservativeness and large width of the confidence intervals. In this study three modified methods are proposed to calculate nonparametric bootstrap confidence intervals for QTL locations, which compute noncentral confidence intervals (uncorrected method I), correct for the impact of the markers (weighted method I), or both (weighted method II). Noncentral confidence intervals were computed with an analog of the highest posterior density method. The correction for the markers is based on the distribution of QTL estimates along the chromosome when the QTL is not linked with any marker, and it can be obtained with a permutation approach. In a simulation study the three methods were compared with the original bootstrap method. The results showed that it is useful, first, to compute noncentral confidence intervals and, second, to correct the bootstrap distribution of the QTL estimates for the impact of the markers. The weighted method II, combining these two properties, produced the shortest and less biased confidence intervals in a large number of simulated configurations.     

The full EM algorithm for the MLEs of QTL effects and positions and their estimated variances in multiple-interval mapping

The advent of complete genetic linkage maps of DNA markers has made systematic studies of mapping quantitative trait loci (QTL) in experimental organisms feasible. The method of multiple-interval mapping provides an appropriate way for mapping QTL using genetic markers. However, efficient algorithms for the computation involved remain to be developed. In this article, a full EM algorithm for the simultaneous computation of the MLEs of QTL effects and positions is developed. EM-based formulas are derived for computing the observed Fisher information matrix. The full EM algorithm is compared with an ECM algorithm developed by Kao and Zeng (1997, Biometrics 53, 653-665). The validity of the inverted observed Fisher information matrix as an estimate of the variance matrix of the MLEs is demonstrated by a simulation study.     

Multi-QTL mapping for quantitative traits using distorted markers

Marker segregation distortion is a common natural phenomenon. However, relatively little is known about utilizing distorted markers for detecting quantitative trait loci (QTL). Therefore, in this study we proposed a multi-QTL mapping approach that uses distorted markers. First, the information from all markers, including distorted markers, was used to detect segregation distortion loci (SDL). Second, the information from the detected SDL was used to correct the conditional probabilities of the QTL genotypes conditional on marker information, and these corrected probabilities were then incorporated into a multi-QTL mapping methodology. Finally, the proposed approach was validated by both Monte Carlo simulation studies and real data analysis. The results from the simulation studies show that as long as one or two SDL are placed around the simulated QTL, there are no differences between the new method and the ordinary interval mapping method in terms of the power of QTL detection or the estimates of the position and dominant effects of the QTL. However, the power of QTL detection is higher under the dominant genetic model of SDL than under the additive genetic model, and the estimate for the additive effect of QTL using the new method is significantly different from the estimate obtained using ordinary interval mapping. The above results were further confirmed by the detection of QTL for dried soymilk in 222 F_2:4 families in soybean.     

The Use of Multiple Markers in a Bayesian Method for Mapping Quantitative Trait Loci

Information on multiple linked genetic markers was used in a Bayesian method for the statistical mapping of quantitative trait loci (QTL). Bayesian parameter estimation and hypothesis testing were implemented via Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. Variables sampled were the augmented data (marker-QTL genotypes, polygenic effects), an indicator variable for linkage or nonlinkage, and the parameters. The parameter vector included allele frequencies at the markers and the QTL, map distances of the markers and the QTL, QTL substitution effect, and polygenic and residual variances. The criterion for QTL detection was the marginal posterior probability of a QTL being located on the chromosome carrying the markers. The method was evaluated empirically by analyzing simulated granddaughter designs consisting of 2000 sons, 20 related sires, and their ancestors.     

A likelihood approach for mapping growth trajectories using dominant markers in a phase-unknown full-sib family

Dominant markers have been commonly used in mapping quantitative trait loci (QTLs) in outcrossing species, in which not much prior genome information is available. But the dominant nature of these markers may lead to reduced QTL mapping precision and power. A new statistical method is proposed to incorporate growth laws into a QTL mapping framework, under which the use of the efficiency of dominant markers can be increased. This new method can be used to identify specific QTLs affecting differentiation in growth trajectories, and further estimate the timing of a QTL to turn on, or turn off, affecting growth during the entire ontogeny of a species. Using this method based on dominant markers we have successfully mapped a QTL for stem height growth trajectories to a linkage group in a forest tree. The implications of this method for the understanding of the genetic architecture of growth using dominant markers are discussed.Communicated by F. Salamini     

Integrating sorghum whole genome sequence information with a compendium of sorghum QTL studies reveals uneven distribution of QTL and of gene-rich regions with significant implications for crop improvement

A comprehensive analysis was conducted using 48 sorghum QTL studies published from 1995 to 2010 to make information from historical sorghum QTL experiments available in a form that could be more readily used by sorghum researchers and plant breeders. In total, 771 QTL relating to 161 unique traits from 44 studies were projected onto a sorghum consensus map. Confidence intervals (CI) of QTL were estimated so that valid comparisons could be made between studies. The method accounted for the number of lines used and the phenotypic variation explained by individual QTL from each study. In addition, estimated centimorgan (cM) locations were calculated for the predicted sorghum gene models identified in Phytozome (JGI GeneModels SBI v1.4) and compared with QTL distribution genome-wide, both on genetic linkage (cM) and physical (base-pair/bp) map scales. QTL and genes were distributed unevenly across the genome. Heterochromatic enrichment for QTL was observed, with approximately 22% of QTL either entirely or partially located in the heterochromatic regions. Heterochromatic gene enrichment was also observed based on their predicted cM locations on the sorghum consensus map, due to suppressed recombination in heterochromatic regions, in contrast to the euchromatic gene enrichment observed on the physical, sequence-based map. The finding of high gene density in recombination-poor regions, coupled with the association with increased QTL density, has implications for the development of more efficient breeding systems in sorghum to better exploit heterosis. The projected QTL information described, combined with the physical locations of sorghum sequence-based markers and predicted gene models, provides sorghum researchers with a useful resource for more detailed analysis of traits and development of efficient marker-assisted breeding strategies.     

Stochastic search variable selection for identifying multiple quantitative trait loci

In this article, we utilize stochastic search variable selection methodology to develop a Bayesian method for identifying multiple quantitative trait loci (QTL) for complex traits in experimental designs. The proposed procedure entails embedding multiple regression in a hierarchical normal mixture model, where latent indicators for all markers are used to identify the multiple markers. The markers with significant effects can be identified as those with higher posterior probability included in the model. A simple and easy-to-use Gibbs sampler is employed to generate samples from the joint posterior distribution of all unknowns including the latent indicators, genetic effects for all markers, and other model parameters. The proposed method was evaluated using simulated data and illustrated using a real data set. The results demonstrate that the proposed method works well under typical situations of most QTL studies in terms of number of markers and marker density.     

Study on mapping Quantitative Trait Loci for animal complex binary traits using Bayesian-Markov chain Monte Carlo approach

It is a challenging issue to map Quantitative Trait Loci (QTL) underlying complex discrete traits, which usually show discontinuous distribution and less information, using conventional statistical methods. Bayesian-Markov chain Monte Carlo (Bayesian-MCMC) approach is the key procedure in mapping QTL for complex binary traits, which provides a complete posterior distribution for QTL parameters using all prior information. As a consequence, Bayesian estimates of all interested variables can be obtained straightforwardly basing on their posterior samples simulated by the MCMC algorithm. In our study, utilities of Bayesian-MCMC are demonstrated using simulated several animal outbred full-sib families with different family structures for a complex binary trait underlied by both a QTL and polygene. Under the Identity-by-Descent-Based variance component random model, three samplers basing on MCMC, including Gibbs sampling, Metropolis algorithm and reversible jump MCMC, were implemented to generate the joint posterior distribution of all unknowns so that the QTL parameters were obtained by Bayesian statistical inferring. The results showed that Bayesian-MCMC approach could work well and robust under different family structures and QTL effects. As family size increases and the number of family decreases, the accuracy of the parameter estimates will be improved. When the true QTL has a small effect, using outbred population experiment design with large family size is the optimal mapping strategy.     

Estimating polygenic effects using markers of the entire genome

Molecular markers have been used to map quantitative trait loci. However, they are rarely used to evaluate effects of chromosome segments of the entire genome. The original interval-mapping approach and various modified versions of it may have limited use in evaluating the genetic effects of the entire genome because they require evaluation of multiple models and model selection. Here we present a Bayesian regression method to simultaneously estimate genetic effects associated with markers of the entire genome. With the Bayesian method, we were able to handle situations in which the number of effects is even larger than the number of observations. The key to the success is that we allow each marker effect to have its own variance parameter, which in turn has its own prior distribution so that the variance can be estimated from the data. Under this hierarchical model, we were able to handle a large number of markers and most of the markers may have negligible effects. As a result, it is possible to evaluate the distribution of the marker effects. Using data from the North American Barley Genome Mapping Project in double-haploid barley, we found that the distribution of gene effects follows closely an L-shaped Gamma distribution, which is in contrast to the bell-shaped Gamma distribution when the gene effects were estimated from interval mapping. In addition, we show that the Bayesian method serves as an alternative or even better QTL mapping method because it produces clearer signals for QTL. Similar results were found from simulated data sets of F(2) and backcross (BC) families.     

Mapping quantitative trait loci with dominant and missing markers in various crosses from two inbred lines

Dominant phenotype of a genetic marker provides incomplete information about the marker genotype of an individual. A consequence of using this incomplete information for mapping quantitative trait loci (QTL) is that the inference of the genotype of a putative QTL flanked by a marker with dominant phenotype will depend on the genotype or phenotype of the next marker. This dependence can be extended further until a marker genotype is fully observed. A general algorithm is derived to calculate the probability distribution of the genotype of a putative QTL at a given genomic position, conditional on all observed marker phenotypes in the region with dominant and missing marker information for an individual. The algorithm is implemented for various populations stemming from two inbred lines in the context of mapping QTL. Simulation results show that if only a proportion of markers contain missing or dominant phenotypes, QTL mapping can be almost as efficient as if there were no missing information in the data. The efficiency of the analysis, however, may decrease substantially when a very large proportion of markers contain missing or dominant phenotypes and a genetic map has to be reconstructed first on the same data as well. So it is important to combine dominant markers with codominant markers in a QTL mapping study. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Bayesian mapping of quantitative trait loci for complex binary traits

A complex binary trait is a character that has a dichotomous expression but with a polygenic genetic background. Mapping quantitative trait loci (QTL) for such traits is difficult because of the discrete nature and the reduced variation in the phenotypic distribution. Bayesian statistics are proved to be a powerful tool for solving complicated genetic problems, such as multiple QTL with nonadditive effects, and have been successfully applied to QTL mapping for continuous traits. In this study, we show that Bayesian statistics are particularly useful for mapping QTL for complex binary traits. We model the binary trait under the classical threshold model of quantitative genetics. The Bayesian mapping statistics are developed on the basis of the idea of data augmentation. This treatment allows an easy way to generate the value of a hypothetical underlying variable (called the liability) and a threshold, which in turn allow the use of existing Bayesian statistics. The reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is used to simulate the posterior samples of all unknowns, including the number of QTL, the locations and effects of identified QTL, genotypes of each individual at both the QTL and markers, and eventually the liability of each individual. The Bayesian mapping ends with an estimation of the joint posterior distribution of the number of QTL and the locations and effects of the identified QTL. Utilities of the method are demonstrated using a simulated outbred full-sib family. A computer program written in FORTRAN language is freely available on request.