Environmental context shapes the bacterial community structure associated to Peltigera cyanolichens growing in Tierra del Fuego,Chile

The structure of the associated bacterial community of bipartite cyanolichens of the genus Peltigera from three different environmental contexts in the Karukinka Natural Park, Tierra del Fuego, Chile, was assessed. The sampling sites represent different habitat contexts: mature native forest, young native forest and grassland. Recently it has been determined that the bacterial community associated to lichens could be highly structured according to the mycobiont or photobiont identities, to the environmental context and/or to the geographic scale. However, there are some inconsistencies in defining which of these factors would be the most significant on determining the structure of the microbial communities associated with lichens, mainly because most studies compare the bacterial communities between different lichen species and/or with different photobiont types (algae vs. cyanobacteria). In this work bipartite lichens belonging to the same genus (Peltigera) symbiotically associated with cyanobacteria (Nostoc) were analyzed by TRFLP to determine the structure of the bacterial community intimately associated with the lichen thalli and the one present in the substrate where they grow. The results indicate that the bacterial community intimately associated differs from the one of the substrate, being the former more influenced by the environmental context where the lichen grows.     

Specialist taxa restricted to threatened habitats contribute significantly to the regional diversity of Peltigera (Lecanoromycetes,Ascomycota) in Estonia

The widespread cyanolichen genus Peltigera comprises many insufficiently known poorly delimited and/or undescribed species. Phylogenetic analysis of 252 Peltigera specimens from a wide range of habitat types in Estonia revealed 31 putative taxa (OTUs). Multivariate analysis revealed habitat-specific segregation between the Peltigera species along a gradient from humid eutrophic forests to dry oligotrophic forests and grasslands and along a soil pH gradient from alkaline soils of alvar grasslands to acidic soils of conifer forests. The diversity of Peltigera was the highest on roadsides and dunes and the lowest in alvar habitats which, however, supported the unique assemblage of undescribed Peltigera taxa. Deciduous broad-leaved forests, too, included several undescribed or rare and red-listed species. The results demonstrate that in Estonia many Peltigera species have narrow habitat requirements and are at present threatened by habitat loss and degradation.     

Pseudomonas syringae isolated in lichens for the first time: Unveiling Peltigera genus as the exclusive host

Pseudomonas syringae is a bacterial complex that is widespread through a range of environments, typically associated with plants where it can be pathogenic, but also found in non-plant environments such as clouds, precipitation, and surface waters. Understanding its distribution within the environment, and the habitats it occupies, is important for examining its evolution and understanding behaviours. After a recent study found P. syringae living among a range of vascular plant species in Iceland, we questioned whether lichens could harbour P. syringae. Sixteen different species of lichens were sampled all over Iceland, but only one lichen genus, Peltigera, was found to consistently harbour P. syringae. Phylogenetic analyses of P. syringae from 10 sampling points where lichen, tracheophyte, and/or moss were simultaneously collected showed significant differences between sampling points, but not between different plants and lichens from the same point. Furthermore, while there were similarities in the P. syringae population in tracheophytes and Peltigera, the densities in Peltigera thalli were lower than in moss and tracheophyte samples. This discovery suggests P. syringae strains can localize and survive in organisms beyond higher plants, and thus reveals opportunities for studying their influence on P. syringae evolution.     

Modelling the impact of climate and land use change on the geographical distribution of leaf anatomy in a temperate flora

Variation in plant functional traits has been related to variation in environmental conditions. In particular, the relationship between leaf traits and climate has received much attention. This paper presents a functional‐trait‐centred approach to identify potential impacts of climate and land use change on plant species assemblages. Using species atlas data, we modelled the relative frequencies of species with different leaf anatomies (LARF) as a function of observed climate and land use data on a regular spatial grid across Germany. Subsequently, we projected the geographical distribution of LARF with simulated climate and land use data for the late 21st century under two future scenarios. We used a conditional autoregressive regression model to account for spatially structured variation in LARF that remained unexplained by the environmental factors considered. We found a clear relationship between the climatic gradient of water availability and shifts in LARF: increasing water deficit was associated with a decreasing proportion of species with hygromorphic leaves in the composition and increasing proportions of species with scleromorphic and mesomorphic leaves. The variation in LARF due to land use was only small. Under future environmental scenarios the proportion of species with hygromorphic leaves was projected to decrease in all parts of Germany, whereas the proportions of species with sclero‐ and mesomorphic leaves were projected to increase on average. In particular, Germany's south‐western and north‐eastern areas were projected to experience functional change in LARF. Our study highlights the relationship between functional traits and plant species vulnerability to climate change. Our results suggest that the functional‐trait‐centred approach can provide a powerful additional modelling tool to estimate potential impacts of climate change on plant species assemblages.     

Vulnerability to xylem cavitation of Hakea species (Proteaceae) from a range of biomes and life histories predicted by climatic niche

Background and AimsExtreme drought conditions across the globe are impacting biodiversity, with serious implications for the persistence of native species. However, quantitative data on physiological tolerance are not available for diverse flora to inform conservation management. We quantified physiological resistance to cavitation in the diverse Hakea genus (Proteaceae) to test predictions based on climatic origin, life history and functional traits.MethodsWe sampled terminal branches of replicate plants of 16 species in a common garden. Xylem cavitation was induced in branches under varying water potentials (tension) in a centrifuge, and the tension generating 50 % loss of conductivity (stem P₅₀) was characterized as a metric for cavitation resistance. The same branches were used to estimate plant functional traits, including wood density, specific leaf area and Huber value (sap flow area to leaf area ratio).Key ResultsThere was significant variation in stem P₅₀ among species, which was negatively associated with the species climate origin (rainfall and aridity). Cavitation resistance did not differ among life histories; however, a drought avoidance strategy with terete leaf form and greater Huber value may be important for species to colonize and persist in the arid biome.ConclusionsThis study highlights climate (rainfall and aridity), rather than life history and functional traits, as the key predictor of variation in cavitation resistance (stem P₅₀). Rainfall for species origin was the best predictor of cavitation resistance, explaining variation in stem P₅₀, which appears to be a major determinant of species distribution. This study also indicates that stem P₅₀ is an adaptive trait, genetically determined, and hence reliable and robust for predicting species vulnerability to climate change. Our findings will contribute to future prediction of species vulnerability to drought and adaptive management under climate change.     

Climate change impacts on endemic,high-elevation lichens in a biodiversity hotspot

Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lichens and fungi have focused largely on alpine and subalpine habitats, and have not investigated the potential impact on narrowly endemic species. Here, we estimate the impacts of climate change on high-elevation, endemic lichens in the southern Appalachians, a global diversity hotspot for many groups of organisms, including lichens. We conducted extensive field surveys in the high elevations of the region to accurately document the current distributions of eight narrowly endemic lichen species. Species distribution modeling was used to predict how much climatically suitable area will remain within, and north of, the current range of the target species under multiple climate change scenarios at two time points in the future. Our field work showed that target species ranged from extreme rarity to locally abundant. Models predicted over 93 % distributional loss for all species investigated and very little potentially suitable area north of their current distribution in the coming century. Our results indicate that climate change poses a significant threat to high-elevation lichens, and provide a case study in the application of current modeling techniques for rare, montane species.     

Climate continentality and treeline species distribution in the Alps

Abstract

The distribution of tree species and the elevation of the alpine treeline are strongly affected by climate continentality. In the present work we performed a detailed survey of the upper limits of tree vegetation in two areas with contrasting climate located in the central Italian Alps, in order to evaluate the structure of the treeline under different degrees of continentality. Tree and krummholz (stunted) individual position, their dimension and life form were recorded from the upper limit of the closed forest to the species limit. The results were compared with an estimation of tree species distribution at the treeline in the whole Lombardy Alps, performed by a survey of tree species occurrence in areas of known climatic traits. The structure of the treeline (upper limits, life form altitudinal arrangement) and its ongoing dynamics were different in the two areas: climate continentality assessed by hygric and thermal continentality indices influenced the distribution of some treeline species. Although the influence of human and geomorphologic disturbance could not be excluded, the importance of the degree of continentality must be stressed when evaluating the response of the treeline to past and present climatic change.     

Thermoregulation and microhabitat use in mountain butterflies of the genus Erebia: Importance of fine-scale habitat heterogeneity

Mountain butterflies have evolved efficient thermoregulation strategies enabling their survival in marginal conditions with short flight season and unstable weather. Understanding the importance of their behavioural thermoregulation by habitat use can provide novel information for predicting the fate of alpine Lepidoptera and other insects under ongoing climate change. We studied the link between microhabitat use and thermoregulation in adults of seven species of a butterfly genus Erebia co-occurring in the Austrian Alps. We captured individuals in the field and measured their body temperature in relation to microhabitat and air temperature. We asked whether closely related species regulate their body temperature differently, and if so, what is the effect of behaviour, species traits and individual traits on body to air and body to microhabitat temperature differences. Co-occurring species differed in mean body temperature. These differences were driven by active microhabitat selection by individuals and also by species–specific habitat preferences. Species inhabiting grasslands and rocks utilised warmer microclimates to maintain higher body temperature than woodland species. Under low air temperatures, species of rocky habitats heated up more effectively than species of grasslands and woodlands which allowed them to stay active in colder weather. Species morphology and individual traits play rather minor roles in the thermoregulatory differences; although large species and young individuals maintained higher body temperature. We conclude that diverse microhabitat conditions at small spatial scales probably contribute to sympatric occurrence of closely related species with different thermal demands and that preserving heterogeneous conditions in alpine landscapes might mitigate detrimental consequences of predicted climate change.     

Yeast population of the Kindo Peninsula lichens

Yeast abundance and species diversity in the lichens collected at the Kindo Peninsula (Karelia) were studied. A total of 14 lichen species analyzed belonged to the genera Bryoria, Cladonia, Hypogymnia, Icmadophila, Nephroma, Peltigera, and Ramalina. Abundance of cultured yeasts in lichens was intermediate between soil and phyllosphere. The average yeast number on lichens was ~2.5 × 10³ CFU/g, while it exceeded 8 × 10³ CFU/g on plants and reached only 1 × 10³ CFU/g in soil. Yeast population of different parts of Cladonia lichens was found to vary significantly in abundance, species diversity, and community structure. The highest yeast abundance and diversity were revealed in the growth zone. Fifteen yeast species were isolated from lichens, including 6 basidiomycetous and 9 ascomycetous ones. Unlike soils and plants, yeast population of lichens consisted mainly of ascomycetous species, with predominance of Candida sphagnicola and anamorphous yeasts of the genus Dothiora. These results show that yeasts from different taxonomic and ecological groups are a necessary component of lichens; conditions favoring the preservation and development of specific yeast communities differing from the typical soil and phyllosphere yeast complexes are formed in the lichens of northern taiga forests.     

The fate of Meconopsis species in the Tibeto‐Himalayan region under future climate change

High‐mountain areas such as the Tibeto‐Himalayan region (THR) host cold‐adapted biota expected to be sensitive to anthropogenic climate change. Meconopsis is a representative endangered genus confined to alpine meadow or subnival habitats in the THR. We used climate‐niche factor analysis to study the vulnerability of ten Meconopsis species to climate change, comparing current climate (representative of 1960–1990) to future climate scenarios (2070: average 2061–2080). For these ten Meconopsis species, we then identified potential future climate refugia and determined optimal routes for each species to disperse to the proposed refugia. Our results indicate that for the ten Meconopsis species, the regions with low vulnerability to climate change in the THR are the central Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau, the Hengduan Mountains (HDM), the eastern Himalayas, and the West Qinling Mountain (WQL), and can be considered potential future climate refugia. Under future climate change, we found for the ten Meconopsis species potential dispersal routes to three of the four identified refugia: the HDM, the eastern Himalayas, and the WQL. Our results suggest that past refugia on the THR will also be the future climate refugia for the ten Meconopsis species, and these species may potentially persist in multiple future climate refugia, likely reducing risks from climate change. Furthermore, climate change may affect the threat ranking of Red Listed Species for Meconopsis species, as Least Concern species were estimated to become more vulnerable to climate change than the only Near Threatened species.     

Differences in the leaf functional traits of six beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) populations are reflected in their response to water limitation

Patterns of intraspecific variation in functional traits have been widely studied across plant species to find out what general suites of traits provide functional advantage under specific environmental conditions. Much less is known about this variation within tree species and, in particular, about its relationship with performance variables such as photosynthetic rates under water deficit. Nevertheless, this knowledge is fundamental to understand the adaptive potential of drought sensitive tree species to increased aridity as predicted in the context of climate change.Intraspecific variation in photosynthetic performance and other leaf functional traits in response to water availability were examined in a glasshouse experiment using seedlings of six European beech populations. The physiological response of seedlings to a “water stress” treatment was compared to a “control” treatment along an experimental cycle of progressive soil water deficit and recovery. We found evidence of intraspecific variation in beech's photosynthetic performance and other leaf functional traits in response to water availability. We also detected intraspecific variation in leaf-level tolerance of water deficit and phenotypic plasticity to water availability suggesting a pattern shaped by both regional and local scale effects. The Swedish population was particularly sensitive to water deficit, being the only population showing impaired photochemical efficiency under the experimental water deficit. Leaf-level tolerance of water deficit was related to PNUE, but not to other functional traits, such as WUE, SLA or leaf nitrogen content, that have been described to vary across species in adaptation to drought tolerance. Our results support the idea that general trends for variation in functional traits across species do not necessarily reflect a similar pattern when observed at the intraspecific level. The observed functional variation between beech populations reaffirms the importance of local adaptation to water deficit in the context of climate change.     

Nowhere to go: Potential distribution shifts of a widespread lizard under two climate change scenarios

Species range shifts under climate change scenarios are caused by many factors. An integrative approach combining demographic distribution models (DDMs) and correlative models can provide key information for making accurate predictions, especially for widespread species occupying diverse environments. Sceloporus grammicus is a lizard that occurs widely in North America and shows variation in its life history traits among environments. Here we assessed future changes in the distribution of S. grammicus in Mexico using mechanistic, correlative, and hybrid models, under two (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) contrasting climate change scenarios, based on two General Circulation Models (GCM: ACCESS 1.0 and MIROC5). We measured the snout-vent length (SVL) of individuals of S. grammicus from 11 populations from central Mexico and input this trait as an indicator of vital rates into integral projection models (IPMs). We used the IPMs to calculate the growth rate (λ) of each population; we then modeled λ as a function of temperature to project λ across a temperature raster layer of Mexico. The correlative models were built using occurrence records of S. grammicus and the key environmental variables. For each scenario and GCM, we first built a map that displayed λ values (> 0.9) across the country; we then built a map that showed habitat suitability probability. We then overlaid the results of these two maps to build a map displaying presence/absence. In general, the results revealed that sites with high habitat suitability probability and λ > 0.9 will decrease under both climate change scenarios, with the decrease being more severe in the RCP 8.5 scenario compared to the RCP 4.5 scenario. Outputs were similar for all projections. Our results predict a range contraction to higher and cooler places such as mountainous zones and were more restrictive under the hybrid approach. The use of this hybrid approach can overcome the weaknesses of correlative models and DDMs. This is the first study to project a range contraction for this species, and the results are consistent with previous observations of other species exhibiting distributional shifts towards the poles or upwards in elevation as the climate warms. However, S. grammicus may overcome the negative effects of climate change via its plasticity in habitat use, thermal preferences, and life history traits.     

Large‐ and small‐scale geographic structures affecting genetic patterns across populations of an Alpine butterfly

Understanding factors influencing patterns of genetic diversity and the population genetic structure of species is of particular importance in the current era of global climate change and habitat loss. These factors include the evolutionary history of a species as well as heterogeneity in the environment it occupies, which in turn can change across time. Most studies investigating spatio‐temporal genetic patterns have focused on patterns across wide geographic areas rather than local variation, but the latter can nevertheless be important particularly in topographically complex areas. Here, we consider these issues in the Sooty Copper butterfly (Lycaena tityrus) from the European Alps, using genome‐wide SNPs identified through RADseq. We found strong genetic differentiation within the Alps with four genetic clusters, indicating western, central, and eastern refuges, and a strong reduction of genetic diversity from west to east. This reduction in diversity may suggest that the southwestern refuge was the largest one in comparison to other refuges. Also, the high genetic diversity in the west may result from (a) admixture of different western refuges, (b) more recent demographic changes, or (c) introgression of lowland L. tityrus populations. At small spatial scales, populations were structured by several landscape features and especially by high mountain ridges and large river valleys. We detected 36 outlier loci likely under altitudinal selection, including several loci related to membranes and cellular processes. We suggest that efforts to preserve alpine L. tityrus should focus on the genetically diverse populations in the western Alps, and that the dolomite populations should be treated as genetically distinct management units, since they appear to be currently more threatened than others. This study demonstrates the usefulness of SNP‐based approaches for understanding patterns of genetic diversity, gene flow, and selection in a region that is expected to be particularly vulnerable to climate change.     

Sensitivity to thermal extremes in Australian Drosophila implies similar impacts of climate change on the distribution of widespread and tropical species

Climatic factors influence the distribution of ectotherms, raising the possibility that distributions of many species will shift rapidly under climate change and/or that species will become locally extinct. Recent studies have compared performance curves of species from different climate zones and suggested that tropical species may be more susceptible to climate change than those from temperate environments. However, in other comparisons involving responses to thermal extremes it has been suggested that mid‐latitude populations are more susceptible. Using a group of 10 closely related Drosophila species with known tropical or widespread distribution, we undertake a detailed investigation of their growth performance curves and their tolerance to thermal extremes. Thermal sensitivity of life history traits (fecundity, developmental success, and developmental time) and adult heat resistance were similar in tropical and widespread species groups, while widespread species had higher adult cold tolerance under all acclimation regimes. Laboratory measurements of either population growth capacity or acute tolerance to heat and cold extremes were compared to daily air temperature under current (2002–2007) and future (2100) conditions to investigate if these traits could explain current distributions and, therefore, also forecast future effects of climate change. Life history traits examining the thermal sensitivity of population growth proved to be a poor predictor of current species distributions. In contrast, we validate that adult tolerance to thermal extremes provides a good correlate of current distributions. Thus, in their current distribution range, most of the examined species experience heat exposure close to, but rarely above, the functional heat resistance limit. Similarly, adult functional cold resistance proved a good predictor of species distribution in cooler climates. When using the species’ functional tolerance limits under a global warming scenario, we find that both tropical and widespread Drosophila species will face a similar proportional reduction in distribution range under future warming.     

Expertly Validated Models and Phylogenetically-Controlled Analysis Suggests Responses to Climate Change Are Related to Species Traits in the Order Lagomorpha

Climate change during the past five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems, and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species’ bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical, and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed ‘modellable’ within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares, and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov’s Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions.     

Can the effect of species ecological traits on birds' altitudinal changes differ between geographic areas?

The altitudinal distribution of mountain birds has recently changed following different patterns in space and time, probably due to the variability of the ongoing environmental processes. Although several studies have highlighted the effect of climate warming in affecting birds altitudinal responses, in the Alps, land abandonment and the consequential forest regrowth may have played a fundamental role.We applied the response curve shape method to investigate changes in the altitudinal distribution of breeding birds over a ten-year period in two different alpine areas (Central and Western Italian Alps) and we performed a log-linear analysis to depict the differential responses of species grouped according to their breeding habitat preferences.The patterns of change remarkably differed according to species ecological traits and between mountain areas. We did not highlight clear altitudinal changes in the Central Alps for any ecological groups, while in the Western Alps, woodland birds showed an expansion pattern and grassland birds suffered a retraction pattern. Since the two alpine areas did not suffer a significant temperature increase, but experienced different woodland cover dynamics, we believe that forest regrowth played a key role in shaping the different bird altitudinal responses between the two sites.Our findings illustrate the effect of ecological traits in shaping altitudinal changes and the role of local environmental factors in affecting spatial variation. Particularly, we strongly suggest considering woodland cover expansion as a key driver of bird altitudinal changes in alpine areas.     

Large‐scale PVA modeling of insects in cultivated grasslands: The role of dispersal in mitigating the effects of management schedules under climate change

In many species, dispersal is decisive for survival in a changing climate. Simulation models for population dynamics under climate change thus need to account for this factor. Moreover, large numbers of species inhabiting agricultural landscapes are subject to disturbances induced by human land use. We included dispersal in the HiLEG model that we previously developed to study the interaction between climate change and agricultural land use in single populations. Here, the model was parameterized for the large marsh grasshopper (LMG) in cultivated grasslands of North Germany to analyze (1) the species development and dispersal success depending on the severity of climate change in subregions, (2) the additional effect of grassland cover on dispersal success, and (3) the role of dispersal in compensating for detrimental grassland mowing. Our model simulated population dynamics in 60‐year periods (2020–2079) on a fine temporal (daily) and high spatial (250 × 250 m²) scale in 107 subregions, altogether encompassing a range of different grassland cover, climate change projections, and mowing schedules. We show that climate change alone would allow the LMG to thrive and expand, while grassland cover played a minor role. Some mowing schedules that were harmful to the LMG nevertheless allowed the species to moderately expand its range. Especially under minor climate change, in many subregions dispersal allowed for mowing early in the year, which is economically beneficial for farmers. More severe climate change could facilitate LMG expansion to uninhabited regions but would require suitable mowing schedules along the path. These insights can be transferred to other species, given that the LMG is considered a representative of grassland communities. For more specific predictions on the dynamics of other species affected by climate change and land use, the publicly available HiLEG model can be easily adapted to the characteristics of their life cycle.     

Climate,soil resources and microbial activity shape the distributions of mountain plants based on their functional traits

While soil ecosystems undergo important modifications due to global change, the effect of soil properties on plant distributions is still poorly understood. Plant growth is not only controlled by soil physico-chemistry but also by microbial activities through the decomposition of organic matter and the recycling of nutrients essential for plants. A growing body of evidence also suggests that plant functional traits modulate species’ response to environmental gradients. However, no study has yet contrasted the importance of soil physico-chemistry, microbial activities and climate on plant species distributions, while accounting for how plant functional traits can influence species-specific responses. Using hierarchical effects in a multi-species distribution model, we investigate how four functional traits related to resource acquisition (plant height, leaf carbon to nitrogen ratio, leaf dry matter content and specific leaf area) modulate the response of 44 plant species to climatic variables, soil physico-chemical properties and microbial decomposition activity (i.e. exoenzymatic activities) in the French Alps. Our hierarchical trait-based model allowed to predict well 41 species according to the TSS statistic. In addition to climate, the combination of soil C/N, as a measure of organic matter quality, and exoenzymatic activity, as a measure of microbial decomposition activity, strongly improved predictions of plant distributions. Plant traits played an important role. In particular, species with conservative traits performed better under limiting nutrient conditions but were outcompeted by exploitative plants in more favorable environments. We demonstrate tight associations between microbial decomposition activity, plant functional traits associated to different resource acquisition strategies and plant distributions. This highlights the importance of plant–soil linkages for mountain plant distributions. These results are crucial for biodiversity modelling in a world where both climatic and soil systems are undergoing profound and rapid transformations.     

Ecological correlates of local extinction and colonisation in the British ladybird beetles (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae)

Five main drivers of population declines have been identified: climate change, habitat degradation, invasive alien species (IAS), overexploitation and pollution. Each of these drivers interacts with the others, and also with the intrinsic traits of individual species, to determine species’ distribution and range dynamics. We explored the relative importance of life-history and resource-use traits, climate, habitat, and the IAS Harmonia axyridis in driving local extinction and colonisation dynamics across 25 ladybird species (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae).Species were classified as continually present, continually absent, extinct, or colonising in each of 4,642 1-km² grid squares. The spatial distribution of local extinction and colonisation events (in the grid squares) across all species’ ranges were related to ecological traits, overlap with H. axyridis, climate, and habitat factors within generalised linear models (GLMs). GLMs were also used to relate species’ traits, range characteristics, and niche overlap with H. axyridis to extinction and colonisation rates summarised at the species level. Bayesian model averaging was used to account for model uncertainty, and produce reduced sets of models which were well-supported by data. Species with a high degree of niche overlap with H. axyridis suffered higher extinction rates in both analyses, while at the spatial scale extinctions were more likely and colonisations less likely in areas with a high proportion of urban land cover. In the spatial analysis, polymorphic species with large range sizes were more likely to colonise and less likely to go extinct, and sunny grid squares were more likely to be colonised. Large, multivoltine species and rainy grid squares were less likely to colonise or be colonised. In conclusion for ladybirds, extinction and colonisation dynamics are influenced by several factors. The only factor that both increased the local extinction likelihood and reduced colonisation likelihood was urban land cover, while ecological overlap with H. axyridis greatly increased extinction rates. Continued spread of H. axyridis is likely to adversely affect native species and urban areas may be particularly vulnerable.     

How interactions between animal movement and landscape processes modify local range dynamics and extinction risk

Forecasts of range dynamics now incorporate many of the mechanisms and interactions that drive species distributions. However, connectivity continues to be simulated using overly simple distance-based dispersal models with little consideration of how the individual behaviour of dispersing organisms interacts with landscape structure (functional connectivity). Here, we link an individual-based model to a niche-population model to test the implications of this omission. We apply this novel approach to a turtle species inhabiting wetlands which are patchily distributed across a tropical savannah, and whose persistence is threatened by two important synergistic drivers of global change: predation by invasive species and overexploitation. We show that projections of local range dynamics in this study system change substantially when functional connectivity is modelled explicitly. Accounting for functional connectivity in model simulations causes the estimate of extinction risk to increase, and predictions of range contraction to slow. We conclude that models of range dynamics that simulate functional connectivity can reduce an important source of bias in predictions of shifts in species distributions and abundances, especially for organisms whose dispersal behaviours are strongly affected by landscape structure.