Conservation Assessment of Guaiacum sanctum and Guaiacum coulteri: Historic Distribution and Future Trends in Mexico

Guaiacum sanctum and Guaiacum coulteri are long‐lived Mesoamerican timber tree species heavily exploited throughout their range and considered to be at risk of extinction. Both species are included on the IUCN Red List and on CITES Appendix II, but there has been no formal assessment of the conservation status of either species. We used ecological niche modeling and rapid assessments of local density and population size structure to provide such evaluations. For the year 2000, we estimated geographic range sizes for G. sanctum and G. coulteri of 95,422 and 130,973 km², respectively. The main core remaining habitat for G. sanctum occurs in Campeche State (Yucatan Peninsula), where populations exhibit high adult abundance and profuse regeneration. Several areas along the Mexican Pacific coast remain with suitable habitat for G. coulteri. Guaiacum coulteri is at greater risk as only 1.3 percent of its current habitat is protected, which contrasts with the 13.2 percent of current habitat protected for G. sanctum. We projected that available habitat for G. sanctum and G. coulteri will decline by a further 30–50 percent by 2020 if estimated habitat loss rates continue. We suggest that under the IUCN criteria, the conservation status of G. sanctum and G. coulteri should be updated to near threatened and vulnerable, respectively. Additionally, we conclude that the amount of protected habitat needs to be increased to safeguard both species. Our study provides a quantitative basis for updating the conservation status of both species and illustrates an assessment framework that could be applied to other threatened tree species.     

Conservation of Portuguese red-listed bryophytes species in Portugal: Promoting a shift in perspective on climate changes

Knowledge of bryophyte diversity can be an important tool for identifying overall biodiversity hotspots. The distribution of red-listed species is an essential data for biodiversity conservation actions, and the assessment of species' response to climate change scenarios is also a key tool in future conservation strategies. In this study, we examine the response of four phytogeographic assemblages of all Portuguese red-listed bryophytes whose distributions are well documented in Portugal. The red-listed species were selected based on their vulnerability as listed in the new Atlas and Red Data book of Portuguese bryophytes according to the IUCN criteria. The main purpose of this study is to develop predictive distributions of threatened bryophytes grouped according to phytogeographic trends aiming to conserve this bryoflora in future. This is achieved by the identification of relationships between specimens' distributions and environmental ecologically meaningful data, which is known to influence different phytogeographic assemblages. Significant differences were found in all distribution models based on future climate scenarios. Several variables play a vital role in the species' distribution models in present and future environmental conditions.     

Quantifying the degree of bias from using county‐scale data in species distribution modeling: Can increasing sample size or using county‐averaged environmental data reduce distributional overprediction?

Citizen‐science databases have been used to develop species distribution models (SDMs), although many taxa may be only georeferenced to county. It is tacitly assumed that SDMs built from county‐scale data should be less precise than those built with more accurate localities, but the extent of the bias is currently unknown. Our aims in this study were to illustrate the effects of using county‐scale data on the spatial extent and accuracy of SDMs relative to true locality data and to compare potential compensatory methods (including increased sample size and using overall county environmental averages rather than point locality environmental data). To do so, we developed SDMs in maxent with PRISM‐derived BIOCLIM parameters for 283 and 230 species of odonates (dragonflies and damselflies) and butterflies, respectively, for five subsets from the OdonataCentral and Butterflies and Moths of North America citizen‐science databases: (1) a true locality dataset, (2) a corresponding sister dataset of county‐centroid coordinates, (3) a dataset where the average environmental conditions within each county were assigned to each record, (4) a 50/50% mix of true localities and county‐centroid coordinates, and (5) a 50/50% mix of true localities and records assigned the average environmental conditions within each county. These mixtures allowed us to quantify the degree of bias from county‐scale data. Models developed with county centroids overpredicted the extent of suitable habitat by 15% on average compared to true locality models, although larger sample sizes (>100 locality records) reduced this disparity. Assigning county‐averaged environmental conditions did not offer consistent improvement, however. Because county‐level data are of limited value for developing SDMs except for species that are widespread and well collected or that inhabit regions where small, climatically uniform counties predominate, three means of encouraging more accurate georeferencing in citizen‐science databases are provided.     

The changing fates of the world's mammals

A recent complete assessment of the conservation status of 5487 mammal species demonstrated that at least one-fifth are at risk of extinction in the wild. We retrospectively identified genuine changes in extinction risk for mammals between 1996 and 2008 to calculate changes in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Index (RLI). Species-level trends in the conservation status of mammalian diversity reveal that extinction risk in large-bodied species is increasing, and that the rate of deterioration has been most accelerated in the Indomalayan and Australasian realms. Expanding agriculture and hunting have been the main drivers of increased extinction risk in mammals. Site-based protection and management, legislation, and captive-breeding and reintroduction programmes have led to improvements in 24 species. We contextualize these changes, and explain why both deteriorations and improvements may be under-reported. Although this study highlights where conservation actions are leading to improvements, it fails to account for instances where conservation has prevented further deteriorations in the status of the world's mammals. The continued utility of the RLI is dependent on sustained investment to ensure repeated assessments of mammals over time and to facilitate future calculations of the RLI and measurement against global targets.     

Threat Assessment and Conservation Prioritization of the Herpetofauna of El Salvador

We applied the IUCN Red List method for threat assessment to the amphibians and reptiles of El Salvador, the smallest Central American country. Seventy-six out of 130 species were found to be threatened or endangered at the national level. In general, most threatened taxa were aquatic organisms in lowland habitats or cloud-forest specialists in highland areas. The IUCN method was biased by collecting effort and was unable to classify 25 species that were categorized as ȁ8data deficientȁ9. We used the number and distribution of threatened species and a complementarity analysis to identify departments in El Salvador that require higher priority for conservation action. We applied a method for evaluating inventory completeness to our data set, and used species from reasonably well-surveyed taxonomic groups (Anura and Sauria) to carryout the complementarity analysis. The anurans (frogs) and saurians (lizards) had been inventoried relatively completely in 10 of 14 departments. The department with the most threatened species (35 of 76 threatened amphibians and reptiles) is Santa Ana, where many threatened species occur in pine-oak and cloud forest in Montecristo National Park.     

Carbon emissions performance of commercial logging in East Kalimantan,Indonesia

Adoption of reduced‐impact logging (RIL) methods could reduce CO₂ emissions by 30–50% across at least 20% of remaining tropical forests. We developed two cost effective and robust indices for comparing the climate benefits (reduced CO₂ emissions) due to RIL. The indices correct for variability in the volume of commercial timber among concessions. We determined that a correction for variability in terrain slope was not needed. We found that concessions certified by the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC, N = 3), when compared with noncertified concessions (N = 6), did not have lower overall CO₂ emissions from logging activity (felling, skidding, and hauling). On the other hand, FSC certified concessions did have lower emissions from one type of logging impact (skidding), and we found evidence of a range of improved practices using other field metrics. One explanation of these results may be that FSC criteria and indicators, and associated RIL practices, were not designed to achieve overall emissions reductions. Also, commonly used field metrics are not reliable proxies for overall logging emissions performance. Furthermore, the simple distinction between certified and noncertified concessions does not fully represent the complex history of investments in improved logging practices. To clarify the relationship between RIL and emissions reductions, we propose the more explicit term ‘RIL‐C’ to refer to the subset of RIL practices that can be defined by quantified thresholds and that result in measurable emissions reductions. If tropical forest certification is to be linked with CO₂ emissions reductions, certification standards need to explicitly require RIL‐C practices.     

Population size and structure of the African Softshell Turtle,Trionyx triunguis,in Dalaman,southwestern Turkey

We assessed the size of the population of the African Softshell Turtle, Trionyx triunguis, in Dalaman (Mu?la, Turkey), which is considered to be the largest population of the species in the Mediterranean, by using the Jolly-Seber mark-recapture method. A total of 415 individuals were caught during the summer months of 2009 to 2011, of which 148 were recaptures. From 267 marked individuals, 148 (55%) were male, 69 (26%) were female and 50 (19%) were juveniles and subadults of indeterminate sex. The male:female ratio was calculated to be 2.14:1. By using Model A' of the Jolly-Seber mark-recapture method, which includes deaths but no immigration, the mean population size in Kükürt and Küçükdalyan (Karg?n) lakes, together with Tersakan and Ta?l?çay creeks, were estimated to be 396±36. Based on this estimation, the population density was calculated to be 14 turtles/ha. Approximately 67.4% of the estimated population was marked. The mean capture probability (p) and mean survival ratio (Φ) were 0.094±0.009 and 0.957±0.076, respectively. Our results showed that the species’ population size is larger than previously estimated based on visual counts. The status “Vulnerable” C2a of the IUCN Red Data Book categories seems therefore more appropriate for the Mediterranean subpopulation of Trionyx triunguis than “Endangered” C2a.     

Ecology,conservation status,and phylogenetic placement of endemic Pristimantis frogs (Anura: Craugastoridae) in Trinidad and Tobago and genetic affinities to northern Venezuela

Trinidad and Tobago are home to three endemic species in the anuran genus Pristimantis, of which two (Pristimantis charlottevillensis and Pristimantis turpinorum) occur in Tobago alone and the third (Pristimantis urichi) is present on both islands. Earlier, the IUCN assessed the conservation status of these species as: P. urichi, Endangered (EN); P. charlottevillensis, Least Concern (LC); P. turpinorum, Vulnerable (VU). However, these assessments were based on very little field-based evidence. Here, we present survey results which contributed to reassessments as LC, VU and Data Deficient for these three species, respectively. Despite the close proximity of Trinidad to northern Venezuela, the islands do not share any Pristimantis species with the mainland, which holds a rich endemicity of Pristimantis regionally. In this study, we used genetic sequencing from several island populations and compared them to northern Venezuelan endemics to assess genetic divergence for the first time. The time tree analyses found that only the northern Tobago species P. turpinorum is closely related to mainland Pristimantis, with a genetic split dating to the Late Miocene, suggesting a vicariant event of mainland and island species. Pristimantis urichi, although identical between the two islands, remains highly divergent from the mainland species. Similar results were found for P. charlottevillensis. In addition, there was a high level of divergence between P. urichi and P. charlottevillensis. These findings indicate different island colonization events by different lineages. Sequencing other Venezuelan species remains pivotal to unravel the complexity of the colonization episodes in the region, likely influenced by the changing topography and multiple connection and isolation episodes of the islands by eustatic sea-level changes.     

Evolutionarily significant units of the critically endangered leaf frog Pithecopus ayeaye (Anura,Phyllomedusidae) are not effectively preserved by the Brazilian protected areas network

Protected areas (PAs) are essential for biodiversity conservation, but their coverage is considered inefficient for the preservation of all species. Many species are subdivided into evolutionarily significant units (ESUs) and the effectiveness of PAs in protecting them needs to be investigated. We evaluated the usefulness of the Brazilian PAs network in protecting ESUs of the critically endangered Pithecopus ayeaye through ongoing climate change. This species occurs in a threatened mountaintop ecosystem known as campos rupestres. We used multilocus DNA sequences to delimit geographic clusters, which were further validated as ESUs with a coalescent approach. Ecological niche modeling was used to estimate spatial changes in ESUs’ potential distributions, and a gap analysis was carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of the Brazilian PAs network to protect P. ayeaye in the face of climate changes. We tested the niche overlap between ESUs to gain insights for potential management alternatives for the species. Pithecopus ayeaye contains at least three ESUs isolated in distinct mountain regions, and one of them is not protected by any PA. There are no climatic niche differences between the units, and only 4% of the suitable potential area of the species is protected in present and future projections. The current PAs are not effective in preserving the intraspecific diversity of P. ayeaye in its present and future range distributions. The genetic structure of P. ayeaye could represent a typical pattern in campos rupestres endemics, which should be considered for evaluating its conservation status.     

A taxonomic revision of the genus Flagenium Baill. (Rubiaceae–Octotropideae)

A taxonomic revision of the genus Flagenium Baill. is presented. Flagenium is endemic to Madagascar and comprises six species; three new species are described here ( F. farafanganensis , F. petrikensis , and F. pedunculatum ) and one species ( F. arboreum ) is transferred into synonymy. Each species is fully described, and summaries of distribution, habitat and ecology, and phenology are given; conservation assessments are provided for each species. Flagenium is characterized by having ovaries with at least two erect and two pendulous ovules per locule, which, depending on the species, can display an additional two to four horizontal ovules per locule arranged between the uppermost and lowermost ovules. In addition, Flagenium has a longitudinally ten-ribbed fruit. These features are potentially unique within the Octotropideae.  © 2007 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society , 2007, 155 , 557–570.     

Spatial variability in species' potential distributions during the Last Glacial Maximum under different Global Circulation Models: Relevance in evolutionary biology

Ecological niche models (ENM) have been used to reconstruct potential distributions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)—or other time periods—and this use is increasingly common in zoological studies. For this reason, we urgently need understanding factors affecting these predictions. Here, we examine how the use of different Global Circulation Models (GCMs) affects the variability in species' potential distributions during the LGM and how the degree of model extrapolation and its associated uncertainty depends on the GCM used. We develop these issues using two North American shrews, Notiosorex crawfordi and Cryptotis alticola, inhabiting two environmentally different regions. First, we compared paleoclimates in these two regions simulated by three GCMs: Community Climate System Model (CCSM), Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), and the Max‐Planck‐Institute für Meteorologie model (MPI). Then, we used maxent to estimate the LGM potential distribution of these two mammals under the three GCMs to assess the spatial variability and extrapolation uncertainty associated with idiosyncrasies of GCM. MIROC estimated noticeably more different climatic conditions than CCSM and MPI in the study areas during the LGM, and its pattern of environmental conditions was distributed differently. The MIROC scenario suggested a remarkable different prediction of potential distribution for both species, being more dramatic for the high mountain shrew, C. alticola. In particular, climatic differences among GCMs resulted in differences in the factors that limit and drive the potential distribution of the species during the LGM. Equally dramatic was the disagreement of extrapolation areas among GCMs. MIROC showed a greater number of pixels where extrapolation is required in both regions. Our findings should be taken into consideration when identifying areas of endemism, dynamic geographic barriers, and glacial refugia. When projecting into alternative scenarios of LGM climate, the idiosyncrasies of each GCM should be explicitly taken into account.     

The status and conservation of the Cape Gannet Morus capensis

The Cape Gannet Morus capensis is one of several seabird species endemic to the Benguela upwelling ecosystem (BUS) but whose population has recently decreased, leading to an unfavourable IUCN Red List assessment. Application of ‘JARA’ (‘Just Another Red-List Assessment,’ a Bayesian state-space tool used for IUCN Red List assessments) to updated information on the areas occupied by Cape Gannets and the nest densities of breeding birds at their six colonies, suggested that the species should be classified as Vulnerable. However, the rate of decrease of Cape Gannets in their most-recent generation exceeded that of the previous generation, primarily as a result of large decreases at Bird Island, Lambert’s Bay, and Malgas Island, off South Africa’s west coast (the western part of their range). Since the 1960s, there has been an ongoing redistribution of the species from northwest to southeast around southern Africa, and ～70% of the population now occurs on the south coast of South Africa, at Bird Island in Algoa Bay, on the eastern border of the BUS. Recruitment rather than adult survival may be limiting the present population; however, information on the seabird’s demographic parameters and mortality in fisheries is lacking for colonies in the northern part of the BUS. Presently, major threats to Cape Gannet include: substantially decreased availability of their preferred prey in the west; heavy mortalities of eggs, chicks and fledglings at and around colonies, inflicted by Cape Fur Seals Arctocephalus pusillus and other seabirds; substantial disturbance at colonies caused by Cape Fur Seals attacking adult gannets ashore; oiling; and disease.     

江苏珍稀濒危植物的多样性、分布及保护

掌握重点保护野生植物的濒危现状及评估濒危等级是制定科学保护策略的关键。根据江苏第二次重点保护野生植物资源调查(2012-2018)以及近年来相关调查资料, 我们采用世界自然保护联盟(IUCN)物种红色名录的濒危等级与评估标准, 对江苏分布的珍稀濒危植物的现状与濒危等级进行了评估与分析。结果表明: (1)江苏41种国家重点保护和濒危野生植物的濒危等级可以分为7个等级。包括地区灭绝(RE) 2种, 占总种数的4.88%; 极危(CR) 10种, 占24.39%; 濒危(EN) 6种, 占14.63%; 易危(VU) 13种, 占31.71%; 近危(NT) 2种, 占4.88%; 无危(LC) 2种, 占4.88%; 数据缺乏(DD) 6种, 占14.63%。其中, 受威胁物种(包括CR、EN和VU)有29种, 占总种数的70.73%。(2)建议的江苏重点保护野生植物有74种, 隶属于40科62属; 它们的受威胁比例较高, 达74.32%。江苏人口众多、环境资源压力较大, 近年来生产经营和土地利用方式的改变以及宣传教育不足很可能是导致这些原生物种濒危的主要原因。因此建议: (1)尽快制定江苏省级重点保护野生植物名录; (2)加强科学研究, 同时对部分濒危植物进行就地保护和迁地保护, 积极开展野外回归、近地保护和动态监测; (3)继续加大对重点保护野生植物的保护管理和宣传力度。     

Ecological niche modeling re‐examined: A case study with the Darwin's fox

Many previous studies have attempted to assess ecological niche modeling performance using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) approaches, even though diverse problems with this metric have been pointed out in the literature. We explored different evaluation metrics based on independent testing data using the Darwin's Fox (Lycalopex fulvipes) as a detailed case in point. Six ecological niche models (ENMs; generalized linear models, boosted regression trees, Maxent, GARP, multivariable kernel density estimation, and NicheA) were explored and tested using six evaluation metrics (partial ROC, Akaike information criterion, omission rate, cumulative binomial probability), including two novel metrics to quantify model extrapolation versus interpolation (E‐space index I) and extent of extrapolation versus Jaccard similarity (E‐space index II). Different ENMs showed diverse and mixed performance, depending on the evaluation metric used. Because ENMs performed differently according to the evaluation metric employed, model selection should be based on the data available, assumptions necessary, and the particular research question. The typical ROC AUC evaluation approach should be discontinued when only presence data are available, and evaluations in environmental dimensions should be adopted as part of the toolkit of ENM researchers. Our results suggest that selecting Maxent ENM based solely on previous reports of its performance is a questionable practice. Instead, model comparisons, including diverse algorithms and parameterizations, should be the sine qua non for every study using ecological niche modeling. ENM evaluations should be developed using metrics that assess desired model characteristics instead of single measurement of fit between model and data. The metrics proposed herein that assess model performance in environmental space (i.e., E‐space indices I and II) may complement current methods for ENM evaluation.     

Clarifying the relationship between body size and extinction risk in amphibians by complete mapping of model space

In vertebrates, large body size is often a key diagnostic feature of species threatened with extinction. However, in amphibians the link between body size and extinction risk is highly uncertain, with previous studies suggesting positive, negative, u-shaped, or no relationship. Part of the reason for this uncertainty is ‘researcher degrees of freedom’: the subjectivity and selectivity in choices associated with specifying and fitting models. Here, I clarify the size–threat association in amphibians using Specification Curve Analysis, an analytical approach from the social sciences that attempts to minimize this problem by complete mapping of model space. I find strong support for prevailing negative associations between body size and threat status, the opposite of patterns typical in other vertebrates. This pattern is largely explained by smaller species having smaller geographic ranges, but smaller amphibian species also appear to lack some of the life-history advantages (e.g. higher reproductive output) that are often assumed to ‘protect’ small species in other taxa. These results highlight the need for a renewed conservation focus on the smallest species of the world''s most threatened class of vertebrates, as aquatic habitats become increasingly degraded by human activity.     

Assessing the Threatened Status of Bumble Bee Species (Hymenoptera: Apidae) in Hungary,Central Europe

Decline in the populations of bumble bees and other pollinators stress the need for more knowledge about their conservation status. Only one of the 25 bumble bee species present in Hungary is included in the Hungarian Red List. We estimated the endangerment of the Hungarian bumble bee (Bombus Latr.) species using the available occurrence data from the last 50 years of the 20th century. Four of the 25 species were data deficient or extinct from Hungary. About 60% of species were considered rare or moderately rare. Changes in distribution and occurrence frequency indicated that 10 of the 21 native species showed a declining trend, while only three species increased in frequency of occurrence. According to the IUCN Red List categories, seven species (33% of the native fauna) should be labelled as critically endangered (CR) and 3 (14%) as endangered (EN). Our results stress an urgent need of protection plans for bumble bees in Hungary, and further underlines the validity of concern over bumble bees all over Europe.