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1.
The long‐term interaction between human activity and climate is subject to increasing scrutiny. Humans homogenize landscapes through deforestation, agriculture, and burning and thereby might reduce the capacity of landscapes to provide archives of climate change. Alternatively, land‐use change might overwhelm natural buffering and amplify latent climate signals, rendering them detectable. Here we examine a sub‐annually resolved sedimentary record from Lake Sauce in the western Amazonian lowlands that spans 6900 years. Finely‐laminated sediments were deposited from ca. 5000 years ago until the present, and human activity in the watershed was revealed through the presence of charcoal and maize agriculture. The laminations, analyzed for color content and bandwidth, showed distinctive changes that were coupled to more frequent occurrence of fossil maize pollen. As agricultural activity intensified ca. 2200 cal. BP, the 2‐ to 8‐year periodicity characteristic of El Niño–Southern Oscillation became evident in the record. These agricultural activities appeared to have amplified an existing, but subtle climatic signal that was previously absorbed by natural vegetation. When agricultural activity slowed, or land use around Lake Sauce changed at ca. 800 cal. BP, the signal of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity became erratic.  相似文献   

2.
El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events can cause dramatic changes in marine communities. However, we know little as to how ENSO events affect tropical seagrass beds over decadal timescales. Therefore, a diverse array of seagrass (Thalassia hemprichii) habitat types were surveyed once every 3 months for 16 years (January 2001 to February 2017) in a tropical intertidal zone that is regularly affected by both ENSO events and anthropogenic nutrient enrichment. La Niña and El Niño events had distinct effects on the biomass and growth of T. hemprichii. During La Niña years, higher (a) precipitation levels and (b) seawater nitrogen concentrations led to increases in seagrass leaf productivity, canopy height, and biomass. However, the latter simultaneously stimulated the growth of periphyton on seagrass leaves; this led to decreases in seagrass cover and shoot density. More frequent La Niña events could, then, eventually lead to either a decline in intertidal seagrass beds or a shift to another, less drought‐resistant seagrass species in those regions already characterized by eutrophication due to local anthropogenic activity.  相似文献   

3.
Our understanding of large‐scale climatic phenomena and dynamics of large herbivore populations comes principally from research in northern regions with temperate, seasonal climate and animal communities with relatively low species diversity. To assess the generality of that perspective, we investigated effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on population dynamics of African buffalo Syncerus caffer inhabiting a semi‐arid savanna with variable rainfall. We used linear and nonlinear‐threshold models to investigate relationships between population parameters and explanatory variables affecting forage conditions (seasonal rainfall, Southern Oscillation Index [SOI]). El Niño‐related droughts in 1982–1983 and 1991–1992 were associated with strongly negative population change, a pattern expected to coincide with a decrease in normally high and constant adult survival. Consistent with that nonlinear pattern, we detected threshold relationships between wet‐season rainfall and population change. Juvenile recruitment was described best by linear relationships with dry‐season. Because ENSO operates primarily through wet‐season rainfall, whereas population dynamics were also related to dry‐season rainfall, SOI did not have the predictive ability of individual weather components.  相似文献   

4.

Aim

Climate oscillations are known to influence the reproductive phenology of birds. Here, we quantify the effects of cyclic climatic variation, specifically El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), on birds that breed opportunistically. We aim to show how inter‐decadal climate fluctuations influence opportunistic breeding. This knowledge is essential for tracking the phenological responses of birds to climate change.

Location

Temperate and arid Australia.

Methods

We assessed variation in egg‐laying (start, peak, conclusion, length) during the three phases of ENSO (El Niño, La Niña and Neutral) for 64 temperate and 15 arid region species using ~80,000 observations. Linear mixed‐effect models and analysis of variance were used to (1) determine if, on average within each region, egg‐laying dates differed significantly among species between Neutral‐El Niño and Neutral‐La Niña phases, and (2) assess how La Niña and El Niño episodes influence egg‐laying in birds which breed early in the year.

Results

During La Niña phases, which are characterized by mild/wet conditions, most bird species in the temperate and arid regions exhibited longer egg‐laying periods relative to Neutral phases. However, there was substantial variation across species. This effect was strongly seasonal; species breeding in spring experienced the greatest increases in egg‐laying periods during La Niña. Further, we found only small differences in peak egg‐laying dates during Neutral and La Niña in the arid region; suggesting that hot temperatures may constrain breeding regardless of rainfall. The effects of El Niño on breeding phenology were not consistent in the temperate and arid regions and may be confounded by highly mobile species opportunistically moving and breeding with localized rainfall during dry periods.

Main conclusions

In both arid and temperate regions, increased rainfall associated with La Niña phases positively influences avian breeding, and likely recruitment. However, dry El Niño phases may not have the dramatic impacts on breeding phenology that are commonly assumed.
  相似文献   

5.
A temporally high‐resolution palynological study of the uppermost section of core MD98‐2180 from Kau Bay, Halmahera, Indonesia, provides a vegetation and fire record covering the last 250 years. The record is compared with the Maluku Rainfall Index, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and southern hemisphere winter sea surface temperatures (SST) for the central Pacific Ocean based on instrumental data, as well as reconstructions of the SOI and the central Pacific SST and historically recorded El Niño events. The results show that significant El Niño events are generally associated with increased representation of Dipterocarpaceae pollen, probably reflecting the mass‐flowering of this taxon during El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) droughts, and elevated charcoal levels, reflecting a greater incidence of fires during these extremely dry periods, while humid phases show increased fern numbers. Our findings demonstrate that pollen records ‘ecological’ in scale can provide useful additional proxy records of ENSO events.  相似文献   

6.
Low dissolved oxygen concentration in bottom layers of lakes and reservoirs usually indicates low water quality. In lakes, empirical models predicting anoxia are almost entirely based on the decay of plankton biomass, while in reservoirs recent findings suggest a prominent role of streamflow and load of organic carbon. This suggests a potential link between water quality in reservoirs and climate processes affecting streamflow. Here we support this hypothesis presenting evidence that both interannual climate variability and recent climate change, mainly consisting in a significant increase in potential evapotranspiration in the upstream basin, affected the oxygen content in a Mediterranean reservoir (Sau Reservoir, Spain). Using a 44‐year monthly record, we found strong and consistent signatures of El Niño Southern Oscillation in the inflow and reservoir oxygen content. Spectral and wavelet techniques showed that the El Niño, streamflow, and reservoir oxygen content series oscillated in common periods, which coincided with the main El Niño variability modes. An empirical model explaining the annual oxygen content in the reservoir suggested that a decreasing streamflow trend reduced the oxygen content of the reservoir by about 20%, counteracting remediation measures implemented at the basin upstream the reservoir. Our results provide the first quantitative evidence of climate change effects on reservoir water quality using long‐term instrumental data, and indicate that streamflow should be considered as a key variable in assessing climate change impact on reservoir water quality. These results are especially relevant in regions of the world where reservoirs are abundant and most climate models predict a decrease in runoff during the next decades. Both the expected trends and the sensitivity of reservoir water quality to global interannual climate variability should be considered for a correct management of water resources in the present and to design adaptation policies in the future.  相似文献   

7.
The degree to which ecosystems are regulated through bottom‐up, top‐down, or direct physical processes represents a long‐standing issue in ecology, with important consequences for resource management and conservation. In marine ecosystems, the role of bottom‐up and top‐down forcing has been shown to vary over spatio‐temporal scales, often linked to highly variable and heterogeneously distributed environmental conditions. Ecosystem dynamics in the Northeast Pacific have been suggested to be predominately bottom‐up regulated. However, it remains unknown to what extent top‐down regulation occurs, or whether the relative importance of bottom‐up and top‐down forcing may shift in response to climate change. In this study, we investigate the effects and relative importance of bottom‐up, top‐down, and physical forcing during changing climate conditions on ecosystem regulation in the Southern California Current System (SCCS) using a generalized food web model. This statistical approach is based on nonlinear threshold models and a long‐term data set (~60 years) covering multiple trophic levels from phytoplankton to predatory fish. We found bottom‐up control to be the primary mode of ecosystem regulation. However, our results also demonstrate an alternative mode of regulation represented by interacting bottom‐up and top‐down forcing, analogous to wasp‐waist dynamics, but occurring across multiple trophic levels and only during periods of reduced bottom‐up forcing (i.e., weak upwelling, low nutrient concentrations, and primary production). The shifts in ecosystem regulation are caused by changes in ocean‐atmosphere forcing and triggered by highly variable climate conditions associated with El Niño. Furthermore, we show that biota respond differently to major El Niño events during positive or negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as well as highlight potential concerns for marine and fisheries management by demonstrating increased sensitivity of pelagic fish to exploitation during El Niño.  相似文献   

8.
As the frequency and intensity of coral mortality events increase under climate change, understanding how declines in coral cover may affect the bioerosion of reef frameworks is of increasing importance. Here, we explore decadal‐scale rates of bioerosion of the framework building coral Orbicella annularis by grazing parrotfish following the 1997/1998 El Niño‐related mass mortality event at Long Cay, Belize. Using high‐precision U‐Th dating and CT scan analysis, we quantified in situ rates of external bioerosion over a 13‐year period (1998–2011). Based upon the error‐weighted average U‐Th age of dead O. annularis skeletons, we estimate the average external bioerosion between 1998 and 2011 as 0.92 ± 0.55 cm depth. Empirical observations of herbivore foraging, and a nonlinear numerical response of parrotfish to an increase in food availability, were used to create a model of external bioerosion at Long Cay. Model estimates of external bioerosion were in close agreement with U‐Th estimates (0.85 ± 0.09 cm). The model was then used to quantify how rates of external bioerosion changed across a gradient of coral mortality (i.e., from few corals experiencing mortality following coral bleaching to complete mortality). Our results indicate that external bioerosion is remarkably robust to declines in coral cover, with no significant relationship predicted between the rate of external bioerosion and the proportion of O. annularis that died in the 1998 bleaching event. The outcome was robust because the reduction in grazing intensity that follows coral mortality was compensated for by a positive numerical response of parrotfish to an increase in food availability. Our model estimates further indicate that for an O. annularis‐dominated reef to maintain a positive state of reef accretion, a necessity for sustained ecosystem function, live cover of O. annularis must not drop below a ~5–10% threshold of cover.  相似文献   

9.
Methane (CH4) emissions from tropical wetlands contribute 60%–80% of global natural wetland CH4 emissions. Decreased wetland CH4 emissions can act as a negative feedback mechanism for future climate warming and vice versa. The impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on CH4 emissions from wetlands remains poorly quantified at both regional and global scales, and El Niño events are expected to become more severe based on climate models’ projections. We use a process‐based model of global wetland CH4 emissions to investigate the impacts of the ENSO on CH4 emissions in tropical wetlands for the period from 1950 to 2012. The results show that CH4 emissions from tropical wetlands respond strongly to repeated ENSO events, with negative anomalies occurring during El Niño periods and with positive anomalies occurring during La Niña periods. An approximately 8‐month time lag was detected between tropical wetland CH4 emissions and ENSO events, which was caused by the combined time lag effects of ENSO events on precipitation and temperature over tropical wetlands. The ENSO can explain 49% of interannual variations for tropical wetland CH4 emissions. Furthermore, relative to neutral years, changes in temperature have much stronger effects on tropical wetland CH4 emissions than the changes in precipitation during ENSO periods. The occurrence of several El Niño events contributed to a lower decadal mean growth rate in atmospheric CH4 concentrations throughout the 1980s and 1990s and to stable atmospheric CH4 concentrations from 1999 to 2006, resulting in negative feedback to global warming.  相似文献   

10.
Large‐scale climate modes such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence population dynamics in many species, including marine top predators. However, few quantitative studies have investigated the influence of large‐scale variability on resident marine top predator populations. We examined the effect of climate variability on the abundance and temporary emigration of a resident bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops aduncus) population off Bunbury, Western Australia (WA). This population has been studied intensively over six consecutive years (2007–2013), yielding a robust dataset that captures seasonal variations in both abundance and movement patterns. In WA, ENSO affects the strength of the Leeuwin Current (LC), the dominant oceanographic feature in the region. The strength and variability of the LC affects marine ecosystems and distribution of top predator prey. We investigated the relationship between dolphin abundance and ENSO, Southern Annular Mode, austral season, rainfall, sea surface salinity and sea surface temperature (SST). Linear models indicated that dolphin abundance was significantly affected by ENSO, and that the magnitude of the effect was dependent upon season. Dolphin abundance was lowest during winter 2009, when dolphins had high temporary emigration rates out of the study area. This coincided with the single El Niño event that occurred throughout the study period. Coupled with this event, there was a negative anomaly in SST and an above average rainfall. These conditions may have affected the distribution of dolphin prey, resulting in the temporary emigration of dolphins out of the study area in search of adequate prey. This study demonstrated the local effects of large‐scale climatic variations on the short‐term response of a resident, coastal delphinid species. With a projected global increase in frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, resident marine top predators may not only have to contend with increasing coastal anthropogenic activities, but also have to adapt to large‐scale climatic changes.  相似文献   

11.
Abstract: Weather and climatic conditions may impact on the timing of breeding in birds. We examined changes in the laying date of the starling Sturnus vulgaris at Lower Hutt, New Zealand in the period 1970–2003 and investigated possible relationships with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Laying dates (expressed both as first and modal dates for the local population) were significantly delayed over the study period, i.e. starlings tended to lay later. The timing of breeding was non‐linearly related to ENSO, with early laying associated with both low and high values of ENSO. We suggest that changes in laying dates varied with food availability, which fluctuated according to climatic events.  相似文献   

12.
The northwest coast of Peru (5°S, 80°W) is very sensitive to and impacted by the climate phenomenon El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Though mainly desert, this warm, dry region contains an equatorial dry forest. We report the first dendrochronological studies from this region and identify several species that have dendrochronological potential. Short ring-width chronologies of Palo Santo (Bursera graveolens) show a well-developed response to the ENSO signal over the last 50 years and good inter-site correlations. Preliminary isotopic studies in Algarrobo (Prosopis sp.) also show evidence of the 1997–98 El Niño event. ENSO events have a strong effect on the variability in the growth of several species and thereby on the economy of rural communities where the wood is used for housing, cooking, furniture, tools, fodder and medicinal uses. The extensive use of wood in archeological sites also offers the possibility of ultimately developing longer records for some of these species.  相似文献   

13.
The effects of El Niño‐induced droughts on dipterocarp forests must be quantified to evaluate the implications of future global climatic changes for the tropical forests of Southeast Asia. We studied the mortality of trees ≥ 1 cm in diameter in a lowland dipterocarp forest in Borneo before, during, and after the 1997/1998 El Niño drought. The annual mortality rates were 1.30, 1.75, and 1.66 percent/yr for the pre‐drought, drought, and post‐drought periods, respectively. The effect of drought was tree size‐dependent being greater for larger trees. Modified logistic regression analysis revealed a significant interaction effect between species' habitat association and edaphic condition on mortality rates in all periods. For species associated with wet habitat, drought effect was greater in dry conditions than in wet conditions, in both the drought and post‐drought periods. The mortality rates of dry‐habitat species were less affected by the drought both in dry and wet conditions. A similar pattern was also found in common Dipterocarpaceae species; mortality rates increased more in species associated with wet‐habitat in the drought and post‐drought periods. Species and families with higher mortality in the pre‐drought period tended to experience greater mortality increases during the drought and post‐drought periods. These results suggest that changes in drought regimes alter the species composition and spatial distribution of dipterocarp forests.  相似文献   

14.
15.
The zooplankton of the northern California Current are typically characterized by an abundance of lipid‐rich copepods that support rapid growth and survival of ecologically, commercially, and recreationally valued fish, birds, and mammals. Disruption of this food chain and reduced ecosystem productivity are often associated with climatic variability such as El Niño events. We examined the variability in timing, magnitude, and duration of positive temperature anomalies and changes in copepod species composition in the northern California Current in relation to 10 tropical El Niño events. Measurable impacts on mesozooplankton of the northern California Current were observed during seven of 10 of these events. The occurrence of anomalously warm water and the response of the copepod community was rapid (lag of zero to 2 months) following the initiation of canonical Eastern Pacific (EP) events, but delayed (lag of 2–8 months) following ‘Modoki’ Central Pacific (CP) events. The variable lags in the timing of a physical and biological response led to impacts in the northern California Current peaking in winter during EP events and in the spring during CP events. The magnitude and duration of the temperature and copepod anomalies were strongly and positively related to the magnitude and duration of El Niño events, but were also sensitive to the phase of the lower frequency Pacific Decadal Oscillation. When fisheries managers and biological oceanographers are faced with the prospect of a future El Niño event, prudent management and observation will require consideration of the background oceanographic conditions, the type of event, and both the magnitude and duration of the event when assessing the potential physical and biological impacts on the northern California Current.  相似文献   

16.
Abstract Predator assemblages are complex systems in which asynchrony in the dynamics of resources and consumers, and the idiosyncratic perception of environmental conditions by the predators may obscure the detection of expected patterns. We disentangle the specific effects of these variables on the guild structure of a vertebrate predatory assemblage in a semiarid ecosystem of western South America. Over 16 years, this system faced dramatic fluctuations in prey availability associated with four El Niño events. After controlling for other sources of variation, we tested if increased resource availability is associated with higher niche overlaps, as expected from the lean/fat scenario. We determined the existence of two trophic guilds of predators (specialized mammal‐eaters and omnivorous species with emphasis on arthropods) and found that they responded to increased productivity both at the guild and whole assemblage levels. However, the population response of arthropod prey (almost simultaneous) and of different small mammal prey (delayed by 1 or 2 years) to productivity imposed a degree of asynchrony in prey availability and in the response of predators. This resulted in the between‐guilds exchange of predator species depending on mammal prey scarcity or abundance. As a consequence, the observed pattern was an apparent lack of response at the assemblage level. Despite differences in the perception of prey levels by predators, we conclude that each one of them responded accordingly to theoretical predictions following a simple rule: if prey resources are not limiting, predators behave opportunistically converging over the most abundant resources, thus increasing niche overlap; if prey shortages occur, predators specialize on those prey resources that they gather most efficiently, thus lowering niche overlap; if resources become even scarcer, all predators converge again upon the few prey resources still available, thus increasing overlap – out of necessity.  相似文献   

17.
One of the major uncertainties of 21st century climate change is the potential for shifts to the intensity and frequency of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Although this phenomenon is known to have dramatic impacts on ecosystems regionally and globally, the biological consequences of climate change‐driven shifts in future ENSO events have been unexplored. Here, we investigate the potential impacts that a persistent El Niño, La Niña, or ‘Neutral' phase may have on species distributions. Using MaxEnt, we model the distribution of climatically suitable habitat for three northeast Australian butterfly subspecies (Doleschallia bisaltide australis, Hypolimnas alimena lamina, and Mycalesis terminus terminus) across the three ENSO phases. We find that the spatial extent and quality of habitat are lowest under conditions that would characterize a persistent El Niño (hot/dry). In contrast, suitable habitat is broadest under the warm/wet conditions associated with La Niña. Statistical analyses of the difference between pair‐wise combinations of suitability maps using Hellinger distance showed that projections for each subspecies and ENSO phase combination were significantly different from other combinations. The resilience of these, and other, butterfly (sub)species to changes in ENSO will be influenced by fluctuations in the strength of these events, availability of refugia, and life‐history characteristics. However, the population dynamics of wet‐ and dry‐season phenotypes of M. t. terminus and physiological limitations to high temperatures suggest that this subspecies, in particular, may have limited resilience should the strength and frequency of El Niño events increase.  相似文献   

18.
Sustained drought and concomitant high temperature may reduce photosynthesis and cause tree mortality. Possible causes of reduced photosynthesis include stomatal closure and biochemical inhibition, but their relative roles are unknown in Amazon trees during strong drought events. We assessed the effects of the recent (2015) strong El Niño drought on leaf‐level photosynthesis of Central Amazon trees via these two mechanisms. Through four seasons of 2015, we measured leaf gas exchange, chlorophyll a fluorescence parameters, chlorophyll concentration, and nutrient content in leaves of 57 upper canopy and understory trees of a lowland terra firme forest on well‐drained infertile oxisol. Photosynthesis decreased 28% in the upper canopy and 17% in understory trees during the extreme dry season of 2015, relative to other 2015 seasons and was also lower than the climatically normal dry season of the following non‐El Niño year. Photosynthesis reduction under extreme drought and high temperature in the 2015 dry season was related only to stomatal closure in both upper canopy and understory trees, and not to chlorophyll a fluorescence parameters, chlorophyll, or leaf nutrient concentration. The distinction is important because stomatal closure is a transient regulatory response that can reverse when water becomes available, whereas the other responses reflect more permanent changes or damage to the photosynthetic apparatus. Photosynthesis decrease due to stomatal closure during the 2015 extreme dry season was followed 2 months later by an increase in photosynthesis as rains returned, indicating a margin of resilience to one‐off extreme climatic events in Amazonian forests.  相似文献   

19.
There is a limited knowledge about the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on the Amazon basin, the world's largest tropical rain forest and a major factor in the global carbon cycle. Seasonal precipitation in the Andean watershed annually causes a several month‐long inundation of the floodplains along the Amazon River that induces the formation of annual rings in trees of the flooded forests. Radial growth of trees is mainly restricted to the nonflooded period and thus the ring width corresponds to its duration. This allows the construction of a tree‐ring chronology of the long‐living hardwood species Piranhea trifoliata Baill. (Euphorbiaceae). El Niño causes anomalously low precipitation in the catchment that results in a significantly lower water discharge of the Amazon River and consequently in an extension of the vegetation period. In those years tree rings are significantly wider. Thus the tree‐ring record can be considered as a robust indicator reflecting the mean climate conditions of the whole Western Amazon basin. We present a more than 200‐year long chronology, which is the first ENSO‐sensitive dendroclimatic proxy of the Amazon basin and permits the dating of preinstrumental El Niño events. Time series analyses of our data indicate that during the last two centuries the severity of El Niño increased significantly.  相似文献   

20.
河口区大型底栖动物具有的重要群落特征往往可以反映群落所经历的环境污染。为更好地了解珠江河口区大型底栖动物群落结构, 作者于2014年11月至2015年8月进行了4个季度的大型底栖动物调查, 并利用PRIMER 6.0软件进行群落生物多样性指数计算、群落等级聚类(Cluster)和非度量多维标度排序(nMDS)分析。研究结果显示: 珠江河口区共获得大型底栖动物52种, 优势种包括光滑河篮蛤(Potamocorbula laevis)、中国绿螂(Glaucomya chinensis)、焦河篮蛤(Potamocorbula ustulata)和羽须鳃沙蚕(Dendroneris pinnaticirrus)。大型底栖动物年平均密度为269.3 ind./m 2, 年平均生物量为129.61 g/m 2。12个站次的丰富度指数(D)、均匀度指数(J')和Shannon-Wiener多样性指数(H')平均值分别为1.81 ± 1.38、0.50 ± 0.27和1.60 ± 1.13。该结果显示除P01断面的秋季和冬季环境质量为优良外, 其他站位在不同季度都显示出轻度到重度的污染。Cluster聚类分析和nMDS标序结果表明, P01断面与P02和P03断面群落相似度较低, 与断面地理分布情况一致; P02断面和P03断面存在交叉聚集, 群落相似度较高。结合环境因子结果可知, 沉积物理化因子与群落分布特征相关性较大, 其中最能解释珠江河口区群落多样性分布特征的环境因子为盐度和pH值。  相似文献   

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