Transient demographic dynamics of recovering fish populations shaped by past climate variability,harvest, and management

Large-scale commercial harvesting and climate-induced fluctuations in ocean properties shape the dynamics of marine populations as interdependent drivers at varied timescales. Persistent selective removals of larger, older members of a population can distort its demographic structure, eroding resilience to fluctuations in habitat conditions and thus amplifying volatility in transient dynamics. Many historically depleted marine fish stocks have begun showing signs of recovery in recent decades following the implementation of stricter management measures. But these interventions coincide with accelerated changes in the oceans triggered by increasingly warmer, more variable climates. Applying multilevel models to annual estimates of demographic metrics of 38 stocks comprising 11 species across seven northeast Atlantic ecoregions, this study explores how time-varying local and regional climates contributed to the transient dynamics of recovering populations exposed to variable fishing pressures moderated by management actions. Analyses reveal that progressive reductions in fishing pressure and shifting climate conditions discontinuously shaped rebuilding patterns of the stocks through restorations of maternal demographic structure (reversing age truncation) and reproductive capacity. As the survival rate and demographic structure of reproductive fish improved, transient growth became less sensitive to variability in recruitment and juvenile survival and more to that in adult survival. As the biomass of reproductive fish rose, recruitment success also became increasingly regulated by density-dependent processes involving higher numbers of older fish. When reductions in fishing pressure were insufficient or delayed, however, stocks became further depleted, with more eroded demographic structures. Although warmer local climates in spawning seasons promoted recruitment success in some ecoregions, changing climates in recent decades began adversely affecting reproductive performances overall, amplifying sensitivities to recruitment variability. These shared patterns underscore the value of demographic transients in developing robust strategies for managing marine resources. Such strategies could form the foundation for effective applications of adaptive measures resilient to future environmental change.     

Shifting dynamic forces in fish stock fluctuations triggered by age truncation?

Accumulating evidence shows that environmental fluctuations and exploitation jointly affect marine fish populations, and understanding their interaction is a key issue for fisheries ecology. In particular, it has been proposed that age truncation induced by fisheries exploitation may increase the population's sensitivity to climate. In this study, we use unique long‐term abundance data for the Northeast Arctic stock of cod (Gadus morhua) and the Norwegian Spring‐Spawning stock of herring (Clupea harengus), which we analyze using techniques based on age‐structured population matrices. After identifying time periods with different age distributions in the spawning stock, we use linear models to quantify the relative effect of exploitation and temperature on the population growth rates. For the two populations, age truncation was found to be associated with an increasing importance of temperature and a relatively decreasing importance of exploitation, while the population growth rate became increasingly sensitive to recruitment variations. The results suggested that the removal of older age classes reduced the buffering capacity of the population, thereby making the population growth rate more dependent on recruitment than adult survival and increasing the effect of environmental fluctuations. Age structure appeared as a key characteristic that can affect the response of fish stocks to climate variations and its consequences may be of key importance for conservation and management.     

Stochastic population dynamics and life-history variation in marine fish species

Abstract We examined whether differences in life-history characteristics can explain interspecific variation in stochastic population dynamics in nine marine fish species living in the Barents Sea system. After observation errors in population estimates were accounted for, temporal variability in natural mortality rate, annual recruitment, and population growth rate was negatively related to generation time. Mean natural mortality rate, annual recruitment, and population growth rate were lower in long-lived species than in short-lived species. Thus, important species-specific characteristics of the population dynamics were related to the species position along the slow-fast continuum of life-history variation. These relationships were further associated with interspecific differences in ecology: species at the fast end were mainly pelagic, with short generation times and high natural mortality, annual recruitment, and population growth rates, and also showed high temporal variability in those demographic traits. In contrast, species at the slow end were long-lived, deepwater species with low rates and reduced temporal variability in the same demographic traits. These interspecific relationships show that the life-history characteristics of a species can predict basic features of interspecific variation in population dynamical characteristics of marine fish, which should have implications for the choice of harvest strategy to facilitate sustainable yields.     

Age‐specific habitat preference,carrying capacity,and landscape structure determine the response of population spatial variability to fishing‐driven age truncation

1. Understanding the mechanisms underlying spatial variability of exploited fish is critical for the sustainable management of fish stocks. Empirical studies suggest that size‐selective fishing can elevate fish population spatial variability (i.e., more heterogeneous distribution) through age truncation, making the population less resilient to changing environment. However, species differ in how their spatial variability responds to age truncation and the underlying mechanisms remain unclear.
2. We hypothesize that age‐specific habitat preference, together with environmental carrying capacity and landscape structure, determines the response of population spatial variability to fishing‐induced age truncation. To test these hypotheses, we design an individual‐based model of an age‐structured fish population on a two‐dimensional landscape under size‐selective fishing. Individual fish reproduces and survives, and moves between habitats according to age‐specific habitat preference and density‐dependent habitat selection.
3. Population spatial variability elevates with increasing age truncation, and the response is stronger for populations with stronger age‐specific habitat preference. On a gradient landscape, reducing carrying capacity elevates the relative importance of density dependence in habitat selection, which weakens the response of spatial variability to age truncation for populations with strong age‐specific habitat preference. On a fragmented landscape, both populations with strong and weak age‐specific habitat preferences are restricted at local optimal habitats, and reducing carrying capacity weakens the responses of spatial variability to age truncation for both populations.
4. Synthesis and applications. We demonstrate that to track and predict the changes in population spatial variability under exploitation, it is essential to consider the interactive effects of age‐specific habitat preference, carrying capacity, and landscape structure. To improve spatial management in fisheries, it is crucial to enhance empirical and theoretical developments in the methodology to quantify age‐specific habitat preference of marine fish, and to understand how climatic change influences carrying capacity and landscape continuity.

     

Population dynamics of Parastromateus niger in Kuwaiti waters as assessed using length–frequency analysis

The population dynamics of the black pomfret, Parastromateus niger, sampled from commercial gill‐net catches from Kuwaiti waters of the Arabian Gulf, were investigated from October 2003 to September 2005. Length‐based stock assessment using the FiSAT software package showed an asymptotic length of 65 cm TL and growth curvature of 0.34 year⁻¹. Raw data as well as that corrected for probability of capture indicated a recruitment from February to September. The total mortality coefficient was estimated to be 1.20, a natural mortality of 0.68 and fishing mortality of 0.52. The selectivity model based on the running average showed that 25% of 14.0 cm TL fish, 50% of specimens reaching 16.3 cm TL, and 75% of all specimens of 20.2 cm TL encountering the gear were retained. Relative yield‐per‐recruit analyses revealed a current exploitation rate of 0.43; this is below the maximum sustainable yield index, indicating for sustainable fishery of P. niger that the exploitation rate could be increased to 0.6, provided size of the fish at first capture, i.e. the legal size, is also increased to 32.5 cm TL. These results suggest that P. niger stocks in Kuwaiti waters, contrary to existing views, are moderately exploited. This conclusion, however, is critically dependent on the estimate of natural mortality, which requires further confirmation.     

An individual-based model applied to the study of different fishing strategies of Pintado Pseudoplatystoma corruscans (Agassiz, 1829)

The decline in stocks of commercial fish species has been documented in several regions of the world. This decline is due partially to the effect of evolutionary pressure caused by the management of fishing activity, which reduces the size of fish after a few generations. In this paper, the population dynamics of the Pintado Pseudoplatystoma corruscans, one of the main commercial species of freshwater fish in Brazil, were simulated considering different scenarios of fishing mortality and different minimum and maximum lengths of capture. The results show that selective fishing based on the different proposed selectivity curves can result in an evolution-mediated increase in the growth rate of the fish, the biomass and the catch. This suggests that appropriate changes in Brazilian legislation can contribute to the sustainability of fisheries and to conservation of the fish stocks exploited by man.     

A 27-year study of brown trout population dynamics and exploitation in Lake Songsjøen, central Norway

From 1968–1984 (period I), a brown trout Salmo trutta , population in a 70-ha oligotrophic lake in central Norway was exploited using larger mesh gill-nets selectively removing the larger fish. From 1985–1994 (period II), intermediate sized fish were removed using smaller-mesh sizes gill-nets. Fishing mortality and CPUE were correlated positively with effort and numbers of fish >3 years old for period II. The gill-net catchability was correlated negatively with spawner biomass and number of trout >3 years old. The significant positive correlation between natural mortality and stock biomass and spawning stock biomass indicated density-dependent mortality. The significant correlation between spawning stock and recruitment described by the Ricker model, indicated density-dependent recruitment of 1-year-old trout. The fishing regimes in the two periods affected the population dynamics and density differently. Selective removal of smaller fish permitted the larger fish to survive, and was beneficial in reducing fish density and maintaining stocks at low levels, consequently, achieving the expected increase in fish growth rates.     

Coral reef cascades and the indirect effects of predator removal by exploitation

Fisheries exploitation provides the opportunity to examine the ecosystem‐scale biodiversity consequences of predator removal. We document predatory reef fish densities, coral‐eating starfish densities and coral reef structure along a 13‐island gradient of subsistence exploitation in Fiji. Along the fishing intensity gradient, predator densities declined by 61% and starfish densities increased by three orders of magnitude. Reef‐building corals and coralline algae declined by 35% and were replaced by non‐reef building taxa (mainly filamentous algae), as a result of starfish predation. Starfish populations exhibited thresholds and Allee‐type dynamics: population growth was negative under light fishing intensities and high predator densities, and positive on islands with higher fishing intensities and low predator densities. These results suggest the depletion of functionally important consumer species by exploitation can indirectly influence coral reef ecosystem structure and function at the scale of islands.     

Harvested populations are more variable only in more variable environments

The interaction between environmental variation and population dynamics is of major importance, particularly for managed and economically important species, and especially given contemporary changes in climate variability. Recent analyses of exploited animal populations contested whether exploitation or environmental variation has the greatest influence on the stability of population dynamics, with consequences for variation in yield and extinction risk. Theoretical studies however have shown that harvesting can increase or decrease population variability depending on environmental variation, and requested controlled empirical studies to test predictions. Here, we use an invertebrate model species in experimental microcosms to explore the interaction between selective harvesting and environmental variation in food availability in affecting the variability of stage‐structured animal populations over 20 generations. In a constant food environment, harvesting adults had negligible impact on population variability or population size, but in the variable food environments, harvesting adults increased population variability and reduced its size. The impact of harvesting on population variability differed between proportional and threshold harvesting, between randomly and periodically varying environments, and at different points of the time series. Our study suggests that predicting the responses to selective harvesting is sensitive to the demographic structures and processes that emerge in environments with different patterns of environmental variation.     

Size‐selective fishing affects sex ratios and the opportunity for sexual selection in Alaskan sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka

Selective exploitation can cause adverse ecological and evolutionary changes in wild populations and also affect sex ratios but few studies have empirically documented skewed sex ratios in exploited fishes (other than species with extreme sexual size dimorphism, SSD). To investigate the possibility of sex‐selective fishing on Alaskan sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka, we assessed sex ratios in fish at two spatial scales: within each of five fishing districts and among 13 breeding populations in one of these districts. We predicted that populations’ sex ratios would vary based on the average size of fish and SSD because size affects vulnerability to fishing. At the larger scale, we found a small but significant bias in fish returning to four of the five fishing districts (average = 52% females), and in four of the five districts males were caught at significantly higher rates than females. At the finer scale there was marked variation in sex ratio on the breeding grounds, ranging from 36% to 47% males. Populations with fish of intermediate sizes experienced the greatest sex ratio biases; the greater vulnerability of males than females to fishing resulted from a combination of larger SSD and different harvest rates between the sexes associated with the fishery size‐selectivity curve shape. Skewed sex ratios may change competition and behavior on the breeding grounds, relaxing selection on male traits associated with mate choice by females or intra‐sexual competition and altering demographic and evolutionary pressures on the fish. Assessment of the size selectivity of fishing gear and the population's SSD can help to illuminate if and how exploitation can affect sex ratios. Future studies examining size‐selective fishing should also evaluate the consequences for sex ratios, as this might help explain changes in harvested population structure and sustainability.     

Population dynamics and potential of fisheries stock enhancement: practical theory for assessment and policy analysis

The population dynamics of fisheries stock enhancement, and its potential for generating benefits over and above those obtainable from optimal exploitation of wild stocks alone are poorly understood and highly controversial. I review pertinent knowledge of fish population biology, and extend the dynamic pool theory of fishing to stock enhancement by unpacking recruitment, incorporating regulation in the recruited stock, and accounting for biological differences between wild and hatchery fish. I then analyse the dynamics of stock enhancement and its potential role in fisheries management, using the candidate stock of North Sea sole as an example and considering economic as well as biological criteria. Enhancement through release of recruits or advanced juveniles is predicted to increase total yield and stock abundance, but reduce abundance of the naturally recruited stock component through compensatory responses or overfishing. Economic feasibility of enhancement is subject to strong constraints, including trade-offs between the costs of fishing and hatchery releases. Costs of hatchery fish strongly influence optimal policy, which may range from no enhancement at high cost to high levels of stocking and fishing effort at low cost. Release of genetically maladapted fish reduces the effectiveness of enhancement, and is most detrimental overall if fitness of hatchery fish is only moderately compromised. As a temporary measure for the rebuilding of depleted stocks, enhancement cannot substitute for effort limitation, and is advantageous as an auxiliary measure only if the population has been reduced to a very low proportion of its unexploited biomass. Quantitative analysis of population dynamics is central to the responsible use of stock enhancement in fisheries management, and the necessary tools are available.     

Trawl selectivity‐induced evolution effects on age structure and size‐at‐age of largehead hairtail (Trichiurus lepturus) Linnaeus, 1758 in the East China Sea,China

Increasing evidence has demonstrated that the life history traits of fishes have changed in many exploited populations, caused principally by intense fishing mortality and size‐selectivity of the fishing gear. Broad and intensive trawl fishing over an extended period has the enormous potential to change the biological characters of exploited fish populations. An individual‐based model was developed to explore the interactions between trawl fishing and evolutionary changes in length‐at‐age and age structure of an exploited fish population. A perennial fish population was simulated with a multiple age structure in the model to examine the effects of long‐term trawl fishing on hairtail, Trichiurus lepturus, in the East China Sea. The results revealed that distribution of the body length‐at‐age and the age structure of the fish population were irreversibly changed under long‐term trawl fishing. The simulated results confirm that the length‐at‐age is increasing shorter, the younger individuals dominate, the influence of trawl selectivity on the biological traits of the fish population is highly significant, and that these changes have potentially evolutionary consequences on the fish body length‐at‐age.     

Effects of resources and mortality on the growth and reproduction of Nile perch in Lake Victoria

1. A collapse of Nile perch stocks of Lake Victoria could affect up to 30 million people. Furthermore, changes in Nile perch population size‐structure and stocks make the threat of collapse imminent. However, whether eutrophication or fishing will be the bane of Nile perch is still debated. 2. Here, we attempt to unravel how changes in food resources, a side effect of eutrophication, and fishing mortality determine fish population growth and size structures. We parameterised a physiologically structured model to Nile perch, analysed the influence of ontogenetic diet shifts and relative resource abundances on existence boundaries of Nile perch and described the populations on either side of these boundaries. 3. Our results showed that ignoring ontogenetic diet shifts can lead to over‐estimating the maximum sustainable mortality of a fish population. Size distributions can be indicators of processes driving population dynamics. However, the vulnerability of stocks to fishing mortality is dependent on its environment and is not always reflected in size distributions. 4. We suggest that the ecosystem, instead of populations, should be used to monitor long‐term effects of human impact.     

A rough guide to population change in exploited fish stocks

Interpreting how populations will change in response to exploitation is essential to the sound management of fish stocks. While deterministic models can be of use in evaluating sustainable fishing rates, the inherent variability of fish populations limits their value. In this paper a probabilistic approach is investigated which avoids having to make strong assumptions about the functional relationship between spawning stock size and the annual number of young fish (recruits) produced. Empirical probability distributions for recruits are derived, conditioned on stock size, and used to indicate likely stock changes under different fishing mortality rates. The method is applied to cod ( Gadus morhua ) in the North Sea to illustrate how population change can be inferred and used by fishery managers to choose fishing mortality rates which are likely to achieve sustainable exploitation.     

When phenology matters: age–size truncation alters population response to trophic mismatch

Climate-induced shifts in the timing of life-history events are a worldwide phenomenon, and these shifts can de-synchronize species interactions such as predator–prey relationships. In order to understand the ecological implications of altered seasonality, we need to consider how shifts in phenology interact with other agents of environmental change such as exploitation and disease spread, which commonly act to erode the demographic structure of wild populations. Using long-term observational data on the phenology and dynamics of a model predator–prey system (fish and zooplankton in Windermere, UK), we show that age–size truncation of the predator population alters the consequences of phenological mismatch for offspring survival and population abundance. Specifically, age–size truncation reduces intraspecific density regulation due to competition and cannibalism, and thereby amplifies the population sensitivity to climate-induced predator–prey asynchrony, which increases variability in predator abundance. High population variability poses major ecological and economic challenges as it can diminish sustainable harvest rates and increase the risk of population collapse. Our results stress the importance of maintaining within-population age–size diversity in order to buffer populations against phenological asynchrony, and highlight the need to consider interactive effects of environmental impacts if we are to understand and project complex ecological outcomes.     

Reconstruction of walleye exploitation based on angler diary records and a model of predicted catches

The walleye population in Canadarago Lake, New York, was 81-95% exploited in the 1988 fishing season, the year in which a previous restriction on the length and number of legally harvestable fish was liberalized. Using diary records from a subset of fishermen, growth estimates, and an estimate of the walleye population in the following year, a method is developed to reconstruct the fish population back to the spring of 1988 and thus determine the exploitation rate. The method is based on a model of diary catches that partitions time and fish length into a set of cells and relates predicted catches and population sizes in these cells. The method's sensitivity to the partitioning scheme, the growth estimates, and the diary data is analyzed. The method could be employed in other fish exploitation analyses and demonstrates the use of inexpensive angler-collected data in fisheries management.     

Structural change in an exploited fish community: a consequence of differential fishing effects on species with contrasting life histories

1. An understanding of the links between life histories and responses to exploitation could provide the basis for predicting shifts in community structure by identifying susceptible species and linking life-history tactics with population dynamics.
2. We examined long-term trends in the abundance of species in the North Sea bottom-dwelling (demersal) fish community. Between 1925 & 1996 changes in species composition led to an increase in mean growth rate, while mean maximum size, age at maturity and size at maturity decreased. The demersal fish community was increasingly heavily fished during this period.
3. Trends in mean life-history characteristics of the community were linked to trends in abundance of component species. An approach based on phylogenetic comparisons was used to examine the differential effects of fishing on individual species with contrasting life histories.
4. Those species that decreased in abundance relative to their nearest relative, matured later at a greater size, grew more slowly towards a greater maximum size and had lower rates of potential population increase. The phylogenetically based analyses demonstrated that trends in community structure could be predicted from the differential responses of related species to fishing.
5. This is the first study to link exploitation responses of an entire community to the life histories of individual species. The results demonstrate that fishing has greater effects on slower growing, larger species with later maturity and lower rates of potential population increase. The comparative approach provides a basis for predicting structural change in other exploited communities.     

Life history correlates of responses to fisheries exploitation

We use an approach based on phylogenetic comparisons to identify life history correlates of abundance trends in 18 intensively exploited fish stocks from the north-east Atlantic. After accounting for differences in fishing mortality, we show that those fishes that have decreased in abundance compared with their nearest relatives mature later, attain a larger maximum size, and exhibit significantly lower potential rates of population increase. Such trends were not evident in a more traditional cross-species analysis. This is the first phylogenetically independent evidence to link life histories with abundance trends, and provides a quantitative basis for assessing vulnerability of fish populations to exploitation. Our approach can be applied to the conservation and management of other exploited taxa.     

Influence of population decline, fishing, and spawner variability on the recovery of marine fishes

Based on an analysis of 90 marine fish populations, collapses (the greatest proportional reduction in spawner biomass over 15 years) are predicated typically by dramatic increases in fishing mortality and recoveries are more likely to occur when exploitation is reduced. However, among populations for which fishing mortality declined after collapse, recovery was independent of exploitation rate, even when fishing mortality (F) post-collapse was expressed as a function of each population's maximum growth rate (r). After a period of 15 years, many populations that experienced 15 year declines >60% exhibited little or no recovery, despite considerable reductions in fishing mortality. This suggests that factors other than fishing may be considerably more important to recovery, and fishing less important, than previously thought. Furthermore, among populations for which fishing mortality decreased post-collapse, rate of population decline was a reliable predictor of recovery. With the possible exception of clupeids, variation in marine fish breeding population size was found to differ little from that of other vertebrates, and such variability appears to have no effect on rate of recovery. In addition to providing an empirical framework for the study of population collapse and recovery, the analyses presented here provide a means of assessing the precautionary nature of various population-decline thresholds used to assign extinction risks to marine fish.